Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, body shop and parts, supercharging, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Tesla’s balance between strong liquidity and a very expensive valuation is clearly tilted toward caution. The company holds a high cash on hand balance, and its quick ratio and current ratio remain comfortably above industry medians, which reduces the risk of short-term obligations stress. At the same time, debt/equity is very low, and long-term debt appears moderate, so financial leverage is not an issue. However, the valuation multiples remain extremely high: P/E, P/S, P/B, and especially P/FCF are significantly above the industry median, which means the market is already pricing in very strong future growth. Against this backdrop, the business quality dynamics do not fully justify such a premium: ROE, ROA, ROI, and return on tangible equity are noticeably below industry levels and have also deteriorated compared with stronger values from the previous year. Profit margins are also weaker than the benchmark: gross margin, operating margin, and net profit margin are below the median, and operating profit over the latest period has declined from the higher levels seen in previous quarters. Revenue and net income remain positive and generally continue to grow compared with earlier periods, which supports the investment case, but the pace and quality of monetization do not yet look sufficient to justify such a high valuation. EBITDA has also declined from peak levels, indicating pressure on operational efficiency. Equity and assets are growing, which points to balance sheet expansion and continued financial stability. There are no dividends, so shareholders receive only capital appreciation, meaning reliance on revaluation and expectations of future growth is especially high. Overall, the fundamentals point not to undervaluation but to a premium valuation with significant requirements for further improvement in margins and profitability. For an investor, this means it is reasonable to remain conservative: a strong balance sheet and the company’s scale support it, but the current price already reflects a highly optimistic scenario.

Tesla, Inc.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Strong index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Слабый индекс, без изменений. Уверенность в своих позициях остается на низком уровне.

Weak index, flat. Confidence in their positions remains low.

Сильный индекс, незначительно вырос. Рынок на стороне быков.

Strong index, slightly up. The market is on the bulls' side.

Средний индекс, значительно упал. Рынок не поддерживает медведей.

Medium index, significantly down. The market does not support the bears.

Слабый индекс, незначительно вырос

Слабый индекс, незначительно упал. Увеличился отток средств из шортов.

Weak index, slightly down. The outflow of funds from shorts has increased.

Strong balance sheet and revenue growth do not offset the very expensive valuation and weak profitability; the fundamentals rather justify a cautious downward adjustment.

Key Points
Not every investor can handle the risks associated with SpaceX, Tesla, or a post-merger stock that combines them.
SpaceX and Tesla are too big to realistically deliver the sorts of large multibagger returns that extreme growth investors are seeking.
On Space Exploration Technologies' (NASDAQ: SPCX) third-quarterearnings callon Oct. 20, CEO Elon Musk revealed that the company and his other megacap, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), are contemplating a merger.
Not surprisingly, many investors have taken a strong interest in a possible SpaceX-Tesla merger. The combined entity would be one of the world's largest AI companies.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Although many investors would likely own stakes in that company, such a stock is not suitable for everyone. In particular, these three types of investors should probably not rush to buy it.
1. Novice investors
Even for those who know nothing about investing, both SpaceX and Tesla might look like attractive choices on the surface. Both are growing their revenues thanks to technologies that increasingly interest the public, and Musk's past successes add to their appeal.
However, most investors do not own individual stocks. Instead, they tend to own long-term passive mutual funds and exchange-traded funds held in their retirement accounts. That is a sensible strategy, particularly for investors who don't have the time or willingness to dig into the details of individual businesses' competitive advantages, risks, and financial metrics. Many of these funds may include Tesla and SpaceX among their numerous other holdings.
Moreover, if one wants to learn how to invest in stocks, most experts recommend starting with companies that have well-known brands, solid balance sheets, and long track records. SpaceX and Tesla are both well-known, but SpaceX doesn't even have a full year under its belt as a public company, and Tesla only went public in 2010 -- that's not a terribly long track record either.
Moreover, objectively speaking, these companies' financials may not be the easiest to understand. Blue chips such as Home Depot or Chevron, which have existed for decades and operate in more straightforward businesses, may make better sense as one's first stock picks.
2. Risk-averse investors
Another aspect of investing that both novices and veterans alike must account for in their choices is their risk tolerance.
Risk-averse investors would rather accept less growth potential in exchange for a lower chance that they'll actually lose money on a stock. As such, they are better advised to buy slower-growing stocks in stable businesses that are less likely to fall in the long run. Even in bear markets, they tend to decline less than cutting-edge tech companies that get valued heavily on the future potential, and those slow-and-steady stocks often pay dividends.
In contrast, risk-tolerant investors are willing to accept a markedly higher possibility of stock price declines if it increases the likelihood of rapid growth. Almost by definition, this requires them to be comfortable holding on through significant short-term ups and downs. Not surprisingly, SpaceX and Tesla typically attract this type of investor despite being among the largest companies trading on the market.
Additionally, both are bets on the artificial intelligence megatrend. Assuming their AI technology thrives in niche markets, either of their stocks or the combined entity could earn considerable returns. However, failures in this area could mean investor losses. Moreover, since both trade at extremely high and speculative valuations, investors today face a greater risk of overpaying for these stocks.
Not all investors will feel comfortable with these risks. Those who don't should probably not own these companies directly.
3. Extreme growth investors
Given the other two reasons to not own these stocks, telling some growth investors not to buy SpaceX or Tesla does not seem to make sense. Tesla has historically experienced impressive periods of rapid growth in its publicly traded history, and both appear well-positioned to outperform the S&P 500.
Unfortunately, investors also must temper their expectations given the companies' sizes. Growth investors have likely read stories about how those who invested a few thousand dollars in Home Depot or Amazon around their IPOs and held on now have positions worth millions.
The difference is that Home Depot or Amazon were small-cap companies at the time of their IPOs. At this point, Tesla and SpaceX are megacaps. Currently, Tesla's market cap is about $1.5 trillion, while SpaceX's is at $2 trillion -- just about where it was early on the day of its June IPO.
This means that the combined company's size would be at least $3.5 trillion. A 100-fold gain in such a stock would take it to $350 trillion. Considering that no company has yet reached $6 trillion, and the entire value of the U.S. stock market is around $75 trillion, even a 10-fold gain would seem hard to imagine.
Admittedly, AI development is driving rapid growth. If a combined SpaceX and Tesla succeeds, a $10 trillion or even $20 trillion market cap is possible in the foreseeable future. Still, a $20 trillion market cap would be close to a sixfold gain. That would be impressive, but it's still well short of the 100-fold or more return potential that extreme growth investors might seek.
Investing in the combined SpaceX and Tesla
Although a combined SpaceX and Tesla holding could be desirable, that prospective stock would not be suitable for everyone. Both companies are likely to be among the top AI companies. This could mean they will outperform the market regardless of whether the merger happens.
Nonetheless, before buying such a stock, one has to know what kind of investor they are. If they are not knowledgeable, cannot tolerate significant risk, or have extreme growth expectations, they may not want to buy shares of this prospective future company.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $344,608!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,327,222!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 904% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 27, 2026.
Will Healy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Chevron, Home Depot, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

3 Types of Investors Who Should Avoid SpaceX and Tesla Stocks as the Companies Explore a Potential Merger

We just issued 'double down' alerts on 3 stocks — find out if Tesla made our list
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $548,453!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $66,331!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $355,124!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 26, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.

Tesla Is Investing Aggressively in its Next Generation Technology

This Week
It was a slow week for data (no offense, PMIs), so markets were once again focused on the artificial intelligence (AI) trade and developments in the Iran conflict.
AI stocks sell off as mega-cap earnings beats aren’t enough to offset costs concerns. We got earnings beats from mega-caps SPCX, TSLA and META (after adjusting for META’s large legal settlement), putting the Nasdaq-100® on pace for 45% per annum earnings growth in the third quarter. But investors were focused on AI revenue and spending.
SPCX tripled its revenue quarter-on-quarter for its AI compute rental business, though capex nearly tripled year-on-year.
META upped the low end of its capex plans by $5 billion and saw expenses grow at more than twice the pace of revenues year-on-year. The next day, the day a filing showed META upped its lease and contract commitments by $125 billion to $825 billion, largely driven by its AI buildout.
U.S. oil prices hover above $100 per barrel as Iran conflict continues.
There were reports that the U.S. and Israel are considering attacks on Iran after the midterm elections.
These reports led to threats Iran would retaliate by attacking civilian targets, including energy infrastructure.
But, Iran’s foreign minister did say that Iran is open to diplomacy if the U.S. ends its naval blockade.
So, for the week, the Nasdaq-100® is down 1%, while apparent safe-haven demand amid selling of AI names has 10-year Treasury yields down nearly 10 basis points to 5.0%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
Wednesday: Fed Rate Decision, GOOG and MSFT Earnings (Q3)
Thursday: Real GDP Growth (Q3), PCE Inflation and Spending (September), Jobless Claims (week ending Oct. 24), AMZN Earnings (Q3)
Friday: Employment Cost Index (Q3)
© 2026, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
My Quotes

Chartstopper: October 23, 2026

Key Points
Space Exploration Technologies is growing quickly but burning a lot of cash in the process.
It has a complicated business plan that relies on major engineering breakthroughs in a short time frame.
Elon Musk is promising massive revenue gains, but these goals are likely too lofty, even for SpaceX.
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is perhaps the most ambitious company in history. The rocket launch company that just went public in the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, raising $85.7 billion in the process, is also trying to tackle artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, satellite internet, and even semiconductor fabrication.
SpaceX just reported second-quarter earnings, burning $9.9 billion in free cash flow due to its massive capital spending plans. Management has called for even more aggressive spending in the quarters ahead. Here's what that means for SpaceX's AI business, how long its IPO proceeds will last before it needs to raise more funds, and whether the stock is a buy today.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Fast growth, faster capital spending
To take advantage of the opportunity afforded by the AI spending boom, SpaceX has built a data center business, along with its own AI software tools, such as its recent acquisition, Cursor, as well as Grok Bot. It has smartly brought on data centers in a supply crunch, leading big customers like Alphabet and Anthropic to flock to it for contracts.
Last quarter, ending in September, SpaceX's AI infrastructure revenue was $7 billion, up from a measly $359 million a year prior, driven by large contracts signed in 2026. However, to achieve this strong revenue growth, SpaceX is incurring heavy capital expenditures, resulting in a negative free cash flow of $9.9 billion for the period.
Total capital expenditures of $19.5 billion in Q3 are expected to double sequentially to around $40 billion, putting SpaceX's capital spending in the same ballpark as hyperscalers like Microsoft. It is going from a standing start at an extremely aggressive pace to try and become a major player in AI infrastructure, and so far, it is paying off with rapid revenue growth.
SpaceX will eventually need to generate positive free cash flow, as the funds from the IPO will run out within two years at the current burn rate. Management should be able to raise funds if this rapid growth continues, but it is always better to bet on a rock-solid business model that generates positive free cash flow than to hope a company can keep raising capital.
A complicated story that needs to be woven together
SpaceX's business plan is ambitious and will be difficult to execute. That's not to say it hasn't pulled off miracles before, but this time there is a lot on its plate to achieve positive free cash flow within the next few years.
One, the Starship ayloads to orbit. When it does, SpaceX plans to launch a bunch of new advanced satellites for its Starlink internet service, along with orbital data centers for its AI infrastructure business. It is also working on its own semiconductor manufacturing hub in conjunction with Tesla, another technology giant owned by Elon Musk, with which SpaceX is considering a merger.
All this has Elon Musk betting that SpaceX will achieve annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, which is barely a year from now. Taking its overall quarterly revenue in Q3, its ARR was $58.3 billion. That means around a 10x increase in its quarterly revenue by Q4 of next year, a goal that is likely not achievable in such a short time frame.
Should you buy SpaceX despite its cash burn?
Investors are rewarding SpaceX for burning cash to accelerate revenue growth as it invests in AI data centers. It now has a market cap of $2.15 trillion.
Unless you believe Musk's claims that ARR will reach $500 billion or more by this time next year, SpaceX stock is likely overvalued and very risky to buy, given its heavy cash burn. It currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 69, which is one of the most expensive sales ratios in the stock market today.
Sure, it is one of the fastest-growing businesses, but who's to say when the AI spending boom will slow down? That would be detrimental to SpaceX's share price.
For all these reasons, it is probably best to avoid buying SpaceX stock right now.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $361,596!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,303,935!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 910% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 23, 2026.
Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

SpaceX Burned More Than $9.9 Billion of Free Cash Flow in a Single Quarter. Here's How Long Its $85.7 Billion IPO War Chest Actually Lasts.

Key Points
International Business Machines beat third-quarter expectations on both revenue and earnings, initially driving shares 7.3% higher in after-hours trading.
The stock reversed abruptly halfway through theearnings call dropping to a 4.6% after-hours loss around 5:35 p.m. ET.
CEO Arvind Krishna warned that corporate customers are growing concerned about the real returns on out-of-control AI spending.
If you glanced at a trading chart for International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) on Wednesday evening, you could be forgiven for thinking someone knocked over a glass of water on the exchange's main server rack.
Big Blue put together an undeniable earnings win, enjoyed a brief bounce into after-hours euphoria, and then promptly fell off a cliff before dinner was even over.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
A picture-perfect quarter on paper
Big Blue delivered a clean performance across the board. Strong System Z sales helped, alongside rampant growth in several software categories. Revenue landed at $17.1 billion, topping consensus expectations of $16.8 billion, while adjusted earnings of $2.95 per share handily beat Wall Street's $2.86 estimate. The top-line figure was a 5.9% increase from the year-ago report while earnings jumped 11% higher.
Ergo, IBM grew sales while widening its profit margins. The stock jumped as much as 7.3% higher in the early after-hours trading.
But just as investors were getting comfortable with IBM's wins, the 5:00 p.m. ET conference call threw a spanner in the narrative. Instead of powering the usual market hype engine, CEO Arvind Krishna offered a surprisingly blunt assessment of enterprise software budgets.
The 5:35 p.m. reality check
The clear signal of AI market trouble landed around 5:35 p.m. ET. In response to an analyst probe on corporate IT budgets, Krishna candidly noted that corporate clients are "getting worried if some of the AI spending [is] completely out of control with no real return."
He added that real implementation requires extensive workflow reengineering: "It is not a little [robotic process automation] tool that you bolt on, and you get something."
IBM's stock plunged at that exact moment. Whee after-hours trading closed, the stock was down 4.ad.
A one-two punch for AI infrastructure
Granted, IBM wasn't working in a vacuum on Wednesday. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also reported earnings the same night, and Elon Musk's empire also cast a chill across extended trading with its own guidance. Tesla's forecast hinted at cooler data center capital expenditures, weighing on the company's energy business and spooking AI investors.
But Krishna's frank admission threw more fuel on the fire. Infrastructure heavyweights like Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave didn't flinch during Krishna's spoken remarks, but they began bleeding red right around 6:00 p.m. ET -- the exact moment the call adjourned and automated transcript summaries landed in institutional inboxes.
When an industry titan tells you customers are balking at the bill for unproven tech, the rest of the market tends to listen. The reaction is even sharper when two titans issue similar warnings in unison.
Should you buy stock in International Business Machines right now?
Before you buy stock in International Business Machines, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and International Business Machines wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $370,440!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,330,110!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 924% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 212% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 22, 2026.
Anders Bylund has positions in International Business Machines and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends International Business Machines, Nvidia, Oracle, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Big Blue's Wild Wednesday Ride: IBM Crushes Q3 Earnings, So Why Did the Stock Tank Mid-Call?

Key Points
Tesla has big opportunities with robotaxis and robots.
SpaceX's growth will be driven by its AI ventures and Starlink.
There appears to be a high likelihood that the two stocks will merge before 2030.
If you want to invest in the future, splitting your investment between Elon Musk's two companies, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), could be a solid bet. With just under $10,000 split between the two stocks, investors could buy 14 shares of Tesla and 34 shares of SpaceX.
Tesla is the older of Musk's two companies, and it has established electric vehicle (EV), solar, and energy storage businesses. However, what gets investors most excited is what the company has in store for the future, and Tesla recently impressed investors with its new Roadster, which can apparently fly and flip.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Tesla's biggest opportunities, though, are with robotaxis and robots. Tesla has created a differentiated self-driving technology that uses a camera-only neural network that doesn't rely on expensive lidar. This, along with its manufacturing footprint, gives it a big cost advantage as it looks to roll out its robotaxi venture across the U.S. If its technology gets the green light, it could dominate this market given what should be superior economics.
Meanwhile, Musk has said he believes that Tesla's Optimus robots will eventually become its biggest revenue contributor. While making the robots has hit some snags, it has started producing them, and things should become easier over time.
SpaceX is a bet on AI and space
Musk's newer company is SpaceX. The company currently operates in three segments: space (its rocket launch business), connectivity (its Starlink satellite internet operations), and artificial intelligence (which includes its AI infrastructure, Grok, and AI coding businesses). Starlink is its largest and most profitable business and is growing quickly. Meanwhile, it looks like it may be trying to enter the U.S. mobile market with Starlink as well.
AI is SpaceX's fastest-growing business, and it should soon become its largest. The company is aggressively building out new AI infrastructure, and it has been getting great returns on its investments, with a payback period of about a year. It has multiple large deals in place, with Anthropic set to be an anchor customer with $84.5 billion in commitments through 2029. Its AI coding platform Cursor, which it acquired earlier this year, is also projected to see robust growth in the coming years.
SpaceX's space business and its Starship rocket, meanwhile, are the gateway to some of its more ambitious future endeavors. This includes things like orbital data centers, Earth-to-Earth cargo transport, and asteroid mining.
Tesla and SpaceX also have a large joint venture together to build a massive chip manufacturing facility in the U.S. that can handle everything under one roof, from advanced logic chips to memory to advanced packaging.
What a $10,000 investment could be worth in 2030
Right now, there is a very good chance that SpaceX and Tesla will merge before 2030. In fact, prediction market Kalshi has odds of 57% that it happens before April 2027 and 77% that it happens before the end of 2028. Barclays analyst Dan Levy, meanwhile, thinks an announcement could come before Tesla's annual meeting on Dec. 6, 2026.
Given this growing likelihood, I'd assume SpaceX buys Tesla in an all-stock deal at about a 30% premium, with investors getting 3.16 SpaceX shares for each Tesla share they hold. That would give investors 68 shares of SpaceX after the merger.
For 2031, the Tesla revenue consensus estimate is $331 billion, while for SpaceX, it is $830.8 billion. Combined, that's $1.16 trillion in estimated annual revenue. Place a 10-times forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio on the stock, given its still strong outer-year growth outlook, and the combined company would be worth $11.6 trillion, and its share count would rise to 25.65 billion shares following the merger. That would value the stock at around $452 in 2030, and 68 shares would be worth over $30,700. That would be a 3x-plus return over the next several years.
Of course, a merger doesn't have to take place, and there is a risk the combined company doesn't reach that revenue number given its reliance on future revenue sources like AI infrastructure, robots, and robotaxis. Nonetheless, this looks like it could be a strong combination to own, and buying these two growth stocks could be a smart bet.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger
Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005.
But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout, a massive technology build-out that Google’s CEO says could be more profound than fire or electricity.
While everyone watches the chip designers, one "backbone" company provides the critical technology that Nvidia and AMD literally cannot function without. We’ve detailed this under-the-radar player in our new AI Playbook.
Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Here's What $10,000 Invested in SpaceX and Tesla Could Be Worth in 2030

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.57% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.52%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.58%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +1.51%.
Stock indexes are mostly higher today, with chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks leading the broader market higher after last week’s selloff. Earnings optimism is lifting stocks ahead of this week's earnings results from Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Netflix. Also, weaker crude oil prices today have improved market sentiment and are supportive of stocks.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
On the downside, homebuilders are under pressure after today’s US economic news showed the Oct NAHB housing market index fell 3 points to a 14-year low of 29, below expectations of 31.
Mostly better-than-expected Chinese economic news is positive for global growth prospects and stocks. China Q3 GDP rose +1.2% q/q and +4.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% q/q and +4.4% y/y. Also, China's Sep industrial production rose +5.5% y/y, right on expectations and the largest increase in 6 months. In addition, China's Sep retail sales rose +1.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% y/y and the largest increase in 6 months. Finally, China's Sep surveyed jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 5.2%, below the expected 5.3% and signaling a stronger labor market. On the downside, China's Sep new home prices fell -0.14% m/m, the fortieth consecutive month of declines.
Stocks have support from the prospect of solid quarterly earnings results. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of today, 45 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 80% beating estimates.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are moving lower today on some profit-taking after last week's rally to a 5-week high. US Energy Secretary Wright said Persian Gulf oil flows have recovered to about 80% of their pre-war level, though refined-product shipments remain constrained. Crude oil prices have underlying support from concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies after Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, a significant Red Sea port for Saudi oil exports that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, with missiles and drones. Also, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that two tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf near Saudi Arabia's port city of Jubail over the weekend.
Markets are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1-week low today and is down -1.18%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.39%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 1-month low and closed down -0.62%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down -4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.2 bp to 5.127%. Today’s stock rally has reduced safe-haven demand for government debt, weighing on T-notes. Losses in T-notes are limited amid some safe-haven buying due to the social unrest in France. Weaker WTI crude oil prices today are also lowering inflation expectations and supporting T-notes.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.6 bp to 3.462%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +5.7 bp to 5.430%.
The German Bundesbank said in a report today that "inflation risks in the Eurozone are clearly tilted to the upside."
Markets are discounting an 8% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, recovering some of last week’s rout. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +2%. SanDisk (SNDK) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +6%. Also, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +5%, and Intel (INTC), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Lam Research (LRCX), and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +4%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +3%, and Analog Devices (ADI), KLA Corp (KLAC), Broadcom (AVGO), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +2%.
The Magnificent Seven stocks, excluding Meta, are up today, supporting broader market gains. Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +3%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are up more than +1%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) is up +0.14%. Conversely, Meta Platforms (META) is down -0.87%.
Cloud infrastructure stocks are climbing today. Applied Digital (APLD) is up more than +8%, and Nebius Group NV (NBIS) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) are up more than +3%. Also, CoreWeave (CRWV) and Arista Networks (ANET) aew up more than +2%, and Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +1%.
Home builders and building supplies are slipping today after the US Oct NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 14-year low. DR Horton (DHI) and Pulte Group (PHM) are down more than -2%, and Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Builders Firstsource (BLDR) are down more than -1%.
Disc Medicine (IRON) is up more than +39% after announcing that its investigational drug bitopertin met all primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase 3 Apollo trial in adults and adolescents with erythropoietic protoporphyria.
Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) is up more than +13% after reporting Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $612 million, above the consensus of $591.5 million.
Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +5% after Bernstein upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $350.
NRG Energy (NRG) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Jeffries cut its price target on the stock to $131 from $160.
Ameriprise Financial (AMP) is down more than -3% after Bank of America Global Research double-downgraded the stock to underperform from buy with a price target of $445.
Earnings Reports (10/19/2026)
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), Crown Holdings Inc (CCK), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), RLI Corp (RLI), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Strength in Chipmakers and AI-Infrastructure Stocks Lead the Broader Market Higher

AGI Is Almost Ready. Is Your Portfolio?
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
When Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang posted on X in September that “AGI has arrived,” it raised many eyebrows across the markets. Now, as the man selling the robots that he claims have surpassed human intelligence, he certainly has a vested interest in declaring this milestone. But what is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and why does it matter to investors?
You should count yourself an interested party if you own any of the Magnificent 7 stocks, or companies that do business with those giants. Or even if you simply work for a living. You have a stake in whether AGI is on its way.
In plain English, AGI is artificial intelligence that’s as capable as a skilled worker at most jobs.
Today’s AI models may be decent coders or data analysts, but they can’t work for long stretches without supervision or pick up new skills as they go. AGI, however, could theoretically replace one of your co-workers, or you.
For companies building AI, a more practical question is when AGI starts making money, so some measure the milestone in dollars. Huang, for instance, told podcaster Lex Fridman in March that true AGI would be capable of building a billion-dollar company (a bar he believes today’s AI clears).
Let’s look at how researchers define the stages along the way to AGI and beyond.
Level
What It Can Do
Where We Are
1. Narrow AI
Specializes in a specific task (chess, spam filters)
Already built and widely used
2. Generative AI
Writes, codes, and more, but needs a human to check its work
Today’s chatbots, such as Gemini, Claude, and ChatGPT
3. Artificial general intelligence
Does most work a capable human can, unsupervised
Achieved according to Huang, disputed by many researchers
4. Artificial super intelligence
Beats the best humans at nearly everything
Hypothetical
Today’s best models are on that second rung, mostly because of the supervision problem mentioned above. Research group METR found that the longer the task, the worse AI does; and when left alone on a job that would take a person two workdays, top models succeed only about half the time. That’s unreliable enough that your co-worker’s desk remains occupied, for now.
GPT-6, the model Huang praised, is too new to have undergone METR’s testing, so its reliability for long tasks is unproved. That leaves the open question of how close we are to AGI. You’ll notice each tech leader’s view tends to align with what’s best for their business.
How Close Are We?
It depends on whom you ask.
ALREADY HERE
Huang has declared AGI’s arrival twice this year, first on a March podcast and again in his September post about GPT-6. Of the seven leaders on this list, he’s the only one who says the threshold is already behind us.
NEXT MODEL
Musk keeps setting deadlines for AGI, and he keeps missing them. He predicted in 2024 that AGI would arrive by 2025, then pushed his forecast to 2026. He now says xAI’s next major model, Grok 5, will be the one to reach it.
BY DECEMBER
Sam Altman, OpenAI
Huang called OpenAI’s new model AGI, but OpenAI’s own CEO hasn’t gone that far. A week before GPT-6 launched, Altman told Time that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, though he expects an internal system he would call AGI by year-end. His chief research officer puts the company “80% of the way” to AGI.
IN SIGHT
Zuckerberg rarely discusses AGI. He skipped straight to “superintelligence,” or ASI, and Meta’s annual report now lists delivering “personal superintelligence for everyone” as part of its vision. In a July 2025 letter, he wrote that Meta had “begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves.”
EARLY 2030s
Pichai expects AGI shortly after 2030. Until then, he says, we’re in an era of “artificial jagged intelligence,” where models solve advanced coding and science problems yet stumble over tasks a child could handle. His caution hasn’t slowed Alphabet’s spending, though, since he told investors in July that competing at the frontier of AGI development is the company’s first priority.
PROOF FIRST
Jassy hasn’t put a date on AGI, and Amazon’s AGI chief, Peter DeSantis, said in June that models need to be about 100 times more efficient before AI comes close. So Amazon makes sure it already has committed contracts for much of the new capacity it builds. AWS customers have signed $496 billion in contracts for future services, meaning they’ve committed to spending more than twice what Amazon itself is spending this year.
WRONG QUESTION
Satya Nadella, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)
Nadella, the group’s contrarian, described companies announcing their own AGI milestones as “nonsensical benchmark hacking” and believes AI should be measured by its ability to drive economic growth. He also cautioned that AI models are getting commoditized, so most of AI’s profits will go to companies selling the software and cloud platforms that businesses run AI on. That view happens to serve Microsoft, which owns Windows, Office, and Azure.
Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) leaders have said little about AGI, figuring that however smart AI gets, it will need a place to live ... and Apple already owns that real estate, in more than a billion pockets.
Setting CEOs’ incentives aside, the model that set off this debate offers evidence for both camps. Here’s how GPT-6 Astra, the OpenAI release behind Huang’s post, stacks up.
Signs AGI is close
Reasons for doubt
Astra can control computer systems on its own, from spreadsheets to full websites
When Astra doesn’t know an answer, it makes one up about half the time instead of admitting it, per evaluator Artificial Analysis
Astra scored 98% on FrontierMath Tier 4, a set of research-level math problems
Independent testing found Astra only tied Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 on overall intelligence
Regardless of a consensus around whether AGI is here or not, what’s inarguable is that the gap between AI and AGI is shrinking with every new model release. For investors, the bigger opportunity is who profits on the way to AGI.
Who Cashes In on AGI
JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) estimates the biggest cloud companies will spend about 93% of operating cash flow on AI this year, up from 33% in 2023. Alphabet even announced plans in June to sell up to $84.75 billion of new stock to help fund its build-out.
If AGI shows up sooner rather than later, these companies could earn back their spending many times over. But if progress stalls, the industry could end up with far more data centers than it can fill.
Meanwhile, these companies are especially well-positioned to benefit from all that spending.
Nvidia: At the risk of stating the obvious, Nvidia’s chips run a large share of the world’s AI data centers. Last quarter, its sales more than doubled to $96.2 billion. Management expects about 90% growth this quarter, yet Nvidia still can’t make chips fast enough to meet demand. Every step closer to AGI means labs need more computing power, and Nvidia is the company selling that horsepower.
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO): Broadcom designs custom AI chips for Alphabet, Meta and OpenAI, all of whom want cheaper alternatives to Nvidia’s pricey GPUs. Its AI chip sales more than tripled last quarter to $16.7 billion, and management expects AI revenue to roughly double to about $115 billion next fiscal year. That Broadcom and Nvidia both more than doubled AI sales suggests demand can support multiple winners.
Alphabet: Alphabet develops frontier AI models of its own while renting computing power to peers building theirs. That rental business is booming, as Google Cloud revenue grew 82% last quarter to $24.8 billion. Its cloud backlog, which counts work customers have committed to but Alphabet hasn’t delivered yet, reached $514 billion, and just over half of it should turn into revenue within two years.
Big tech is increasingly borrowing to fund its AI build-out, and lenders have started charging more for that debt. Alphabet spent more cash than it brought in last quarter, which hadn’t happened since it went public in 2004. If any major spender decided to slow its build-out, all three of these companies would likely feel it at once.
The Bottom Line
While we wait for AGI to arrive, investors can prepare.
Know your exposure: The Magnificent 7 make up roughly a third of the S&P 500, so an index fund already ties a big share of your money to the AI build-out. Add in any other tech stocks you own, and your stake is likely bigger than you think.
Favor companies with paying customers: Look for AI businesses with rising sales and signed contracts (e.g., Google Cloud’s $514 billion backlog) over companies counting on a breakthrough years from now.
Think in years: If AGI is a decade out, there’s no rush to buy everything at once. Dollar-cost averaging lowers the risk of buying at a peak.
When AGI arrives, you won’t need to hear it from the man selling robots, since it’ll be written all over the economy and in your portfolios.
What’s one stock you’re holding on the belief that AGI will transform the markets?
Share with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying!
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again
In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. If you’d invested $5,000 then, you’d be sitting on $2,783,470 today.*
Now, for the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. It’s a key player in the $1.8 trillion space race, and with the stock recently sitting 20% off its highs, the window to get in early is closing fast.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 18, 2026.
JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Lou Whiteman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.

Breakfast News: The Sunday Edition

Key Points
Musk has called Taiwan Semiconductor one of Tesla's most important partners.
Micron already works with the automaker and sees a huge opportunity in robotics and memory demand.
Panasonic has a long relationship in manufacturing batteries for Musk's vehicles and could get involved with robotics as well.
Elon Musk has big plans for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) that go well beyond electric vehicles (EVs). The Tesla CEO has suggested that the company's Optimus humanoid robot could eventually become its most important product, with applications ranging from factory work to household chores. But turning that vision into a profitable business will require enormous investments in computing power, memory, and batteries.
Tesla is working toward commercial production of Optimus, and the EV maker's bulls, including Cathie Wood at Ark Invest, believe it could be a huge opportunity for the stock. And as Tesla works toward commercial production, some of its established technology partners will likely start reaping the rewards, even before the first Optimus robot hits the market.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Here are three of those stocks worth watching.
1. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Many investors swear by the "Magnificent Seven" group of tech stocks, but I think Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) may be better than any of them. TSMC, as it's known for short, is the world's largest chip manufacturer, producing advanced semiconductors for every member of the Magnificent Seven, including Tesla.
In the EV company'searnings callin July, Musk highlighted TSMC as one of his important chipmaking partners. And that relationship could become increasingly valuable as it develops Optimus, which will need powerful processors to interpret visual information, make decisions, and control its movements.
In TSMC's just-released earnings report for the third quarter, the company reported revenue of $46.72 billion, up 41% from a year ago. Even more importantly, advanced chips manufactured using processes of seven nanometers or smaller accounted for 79% of the company's wafer revenue. Those are precisely the types of manufacturing technologies that make it valuable to companies developing increasingly sophisticated AI processors.
Tesla's plans to develop its own chip manufacturing capacity could eventually create competition for TSMC. But building advanced semiconductor factories is extraordinarily expensive and technically demanding. For now, TSMC is collecting revenue from the AI computing boom while Tesla works on getting Optimus into customers' hands.
2. Micron Technology
If processors are the brains of humanoid robots, memory is what enables those brains to process information quickly enough to perform useful tasks.
That's where Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) comes in. It makes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and storage products essential to AI computing. Musk specifically thanked Micron during Tesla's Julyearnings callfor providing a substantial memory allocation to the company despite tight industry supplies.
And the opportunity extends well beyond Tesla. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has identified humanoid robotics as a potential source of future memory demand. In the company's fiscal fourth-quarterearnings call Mehrotra said that autonomous vehicles can require more than 200 gigabytes of memory and multiple terabytes of storage, and that humanoid robots could have comparable requirements.
That's a lot of memory for a machine that might eventually fold laundry or work in a warehouse.
3. Panasonic
Panasonic (OTC: PCRFF) has a long-standing relationship with Tesla, manufacturing lithium-ion batteries for its vehicles. And that expertise could become valuable in humanoid robotics.
Optimus will need rechargeable batteries that can deliver enough power to operate its motors, processors, and sensors without making the robot too heavy. And Panasonic has extensive experience producing high-performance battery cells.
The company is an established Tesla battery supplier, but a specific agreement to provide batteries for Optimus hasn't been publicly confirmed. The biggest question instead is whether Panasonic can turn its battery manufacturing experience into meaningful robotics revenue.
The bottom line
Musk believes Optimus could eventually become one of Tesla's biggest businesses, and Ark Invest's Wood is among the legions of Tesla bulls who agree. But it will take years of engineering, investment, and production before the robots begin coming off the assembly line and are available for commercial sale.
TSMC, Micron, and Panasonic already have established businesses serving Tesla or the broader AI market, and they seem perfectly situated to benefit from the work on Optimus.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger
Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005.
But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout, a massive technology build-out that Google’s CEO says could be more profound than fire or electricity.
While everyone watches the chip designers, one "backbone" company provides the critical technology that Nvidia and AMD literally cannot function without. We’ve detailed this under-the-radar player in our new AI Playbook.
Patrick Sanders has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Elon Musk Says Optimus Is Tesla's Most Important Product. These 3 Suppliers Get Paid Before Tesla Does.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down by -1.09% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -2.50%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) fell -1.14%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) fell -2.51%.
Stock indexes sold off sharply on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2-week low and the Nasdaq 100 dropping to a 1-month low. Selling in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks led the market lower on Friday, driven by concerns about whether companies will see returns on their huge investments in the AI infrastructure buildout. Also, CoreWeave sank more than -11% to weigh on cloud infrastructure stocks as concerns about the company’s credit risk linger.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Stock losses accelerated Friday afternoon as crude oil prices soared more than 3% to a 1-month high, raising inflation expectations and fueling fears the Fed will keep raising interest rates to contain inflation.
Higher bond yields undercut stocks after Fed Chair Warsh made no remarks on monetary policy or his outlook for the US economy late Thursday evening at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1 bp to 5.09%.
Friday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks. The Sep import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m, the largest increase in 5 months and a sign of price pressures. However, Sep manufacturing production rose +0.3% m/m, right on expectations.
Stocks have support from the prospect of solid quarterly earnings results that began this week. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its three-month view on global equity markets to overweight from neutral, saying. “Earnings growth remains supportive for equities and the recent valuation de-rating has improved asymmetry into the third-quarter earnings season.” According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of Friday, 40 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 78% beating estimates.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) surged more than +3% on Friday to a 1-month high. Crude prices rallied on Friday amid a weaker dollar and concerns that escalating Middle East hostilities could disrupt regional energy supplies. Prices race to their highs Friday afternoon after US lawmakers introduced a bill to block President Trump’s deal with Russia to release several hundred million barrels of diesel fuel.
Markets are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets settled higher on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.58%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.24%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.39%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed down -2.5 ticks on Friday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.7 bp to 5.085%. Dec T-notes were under pressure Friday after Fed Chair Warsh's lack of guidance at the annual IMF meeting in Bangkok weighed on T-notes. Also, Friday’s +3% surge in WTI crude oil to a 1-month high raised inflation expectations and weighed on T-notes. Friday’s stock plunge sparked safe-haven buying of government debt and limited T-note losses.
European government bond yields were mixed on Friday. The 10-year German bund yield rose +1.3 bp to 3.426%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -0.2 bp to 5.373%.
ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. "The ECB has raised interest rates twice, and if the situation remains as it is, we don't rule out the possibility that we may have to take further action."
Markets are discounting a 10% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks continued their week-long slide on Friday, weighing on the broader market. Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed down more than -7%, and Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK), and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -6%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), Intel (INTC), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -5%, and Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Broadcom (AVGO) closed down more than -4%. In addition,
CoreWeave (CRWV) closed down more than -11% to weigh on cloud infrastructure stocks as debt concerns linger after swaps priced in more than a 50% chance the company will default on its debt within five years. Also, Nebius Group NV (NBIS) closed down more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Applied Digital (APLD) closed down more than -11%. In addition, Lumentum Holdings (LITE) closed down more than -5%, and Oracle (ORCL) and Arista Networks (ANET) closed down more than -4%.
The Magnificent Seven stocks, excluding Apple, fell on Friday and weighed on the overall market. Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -3%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -2%, and Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -1%. Apple (AAPL) bucked the trend and closed up +0.43%.
Cybersecurity stocks retreated on Friday. Okta (OKTA) closed down more than -10%, and SentinelOne (S), Fortinet (FTNT), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) closed down more than -7%. Also, Cloudflare (NET) closed down more than -6%, Zscaler (ZS) closed down more than -5%, and Gen Digital (GEN) closed down more than -2%.
Energy producers and service providers rallied on Friday after WTI crude oil rose more than +3% to a 1-month high. APA Corp (APA) closed up more than +4%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP) and Devon Energy (DVN) closed up more than +3%, and Chevron (CVX) closed up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials. In addition, Baker Hughes (BKR), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and SLB Ltd (SLB) closed up more than +2%, and Halliburton (HAL) and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +1%.
Defense contractors rose on Friday as the companies are set to benefit from increased defense spending. Northrop Grumman (NOC) closed up more than +4%, and Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corp (RTX), and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) closed up more than +3%. Also, General Dynamics (GD) closed up more than +2%, and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) closed up more than +1%.
Defensive food producers moved higher on Friday amid the slump in the broader market. Kraft Heinz Co (KHC), McCormick & Co (MKC), J M Smucker (SJM), Hershey Co (HSY), Hormel Foods (HRL), and Mondelez International (MDLZ) closed up more than +1%.
Omeros (OMER) closed down more than -14% after the European Medicines Agency issued a negative opinion on the company’s application for its narsoplimab therapy.
Earnings Reports (10/19/2026)
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), Crown Holdings Inc (CCK), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), RLI Corp (RLI), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Tesla, Inc.

Trend

Trend Class

Trend Power

Pattern

EMA

EMA-20

EMA-50

EMA-100

EMA-20

EMA-50

EMA-100

Oscillators

Stochastic

RSI

MACD

Candle pattern type