Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The Chemical Products segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals including olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers performance products, including lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. The company also involves in the manufacturing, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Spring, Texas.

ExxonMobil appears financially sound, but the market is already pricing in noticeably more than what the current fundamental metrics justify. The company’s main strength is its very low leverage: a debt/equity ratio of 0.12 is significantly better than the industry average, and debt has remained stable and moderate over recent periods. At the same time, liquidity is not ideal: a quick ratio of 0.85 and a current ratio of 1.14 are below industry benchmarks, which is not critical for a capital-intensive oil and gas business, but does limit its margin of safety. The profitability picture is mixed: revenue, EBITDA, operating profit, and net profit remain very large and generally have grown over the long term, but gross, operating, and net margins are noticeably below the industry median, indicating weaker pricing power and/or a higher cost structure. ROA and ROI look acceptable, but ROE and return on tangible equity are below industry levels, meaning shareholders’ capital is not being used as efficiently as it could be. At the same time, valuation multiples do not look cheap: P/E is above the median, P/B is above the median, and P/FCF is especially high, which usually implies limited re-rating potential without further improvement in cash flow. P/S is close to the industry level, so on a revenue basis the company does not look clearly expensive, but that is not enough to offset the premium on earnings and FCF. Dividend yield has fallen to 0.64, which weakens the investment case for income strategies and does not provide additional support for the valuation. The year-over-year trend overall is not deteriorating dramatically, but it also does not show the acceleration that would justify a higher multiple. Overall, this is the profile of a high-quality, large-scale, financially disciplined business, but one that is no longer especially attractive from a price-entry standpoint. For an investor, this is more of a stability and defensiveness story than a clear undervaluation case. Therefore, the target forecast should be slightly lowered, while maintaining a conservative view of re-rating potential.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

Сильный индекс, значительно вырос. Быки резко укрепили уверенность в своих позициях.

Strong index, significantly up. Bulls sharply strengthened confidence in their positions.

Средний индекс, значительно вырос. Рынок на стороне быков.

Medium index, significantly up. The market is on the bulls' side.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Отток средств из лонгов резко увеличился и находится на высоком уровне.

Strong index, significantly down. The outflow of funds from longs has increased sharply and is at a high level.

XOM remains financially stable and profitable, but is expensive on P/E, P/B, and P/FCF, while weak margins and low dividend yield limit the upside.

Key Points
Chevron and ExxonMobil both had operations in Venezuela at one point.
Exxon pulled out of the country because of political uncertainty, but Chevron stayed.
Exposure to Venezuela was a thorn in Chevron's side for years, but its long commitment to the country is now a plus.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is one of the world's largest energy companies, but it tends to operate in a very conservative manner. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is another industry giant, and while slightly smaller, it has been willing to take on some risks that Exxon has specifically avoided.
One big difference between the two is Venezuela. And, at least for now, it looks like Chevron's willingness to stay in the country despite political uncertainty has set it up for success. That leaves Exxon to play catch-up in what could be one of the world's most important energy-producing countries. Here's what you need to know.
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ExxonMobil gets out, Chevron sticks around
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is getting all of the media's attention right now, which makes sense. However, shortly before that conflict broke out, the big story in the energy sector was the U.S. government going into Venezuela and arresting its leader, Nicolas Maduro. Replacing Maduro was his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who has so far been very willing to work with the United States.
That, however, is really the end of the story, not the beginning. After former president Hugo Chavez rose to power, he nationalized the oil industry. At that point, Exxon exited the country. That makes total sense given Exxon's conservative culture. Chevron, however, remained. To be fair, Exxon could be owed money over that nationalization, but it still isn't operating in the country. That's a potential setback today, now that Venezuela appears to be opening up to foreign investment again.
A big nation with huge needs
It is estimated that Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves. Operating in a region that is generally politically and economically stable, it could be a very attractive source of oil for Western nations. If the political situation in the country remains stable, it is highly likely that Exxon will want back in. But not right away, with the company explaining that Venezuela isn't yet stable enough to justify investment.
Chevron has already pledged to invest $7 billion into the country's energy industry. That makes sense, given that Venezuela's energy sector is in a state of disrepair after years of neglect. Chevron is really just making sure that it can operate more efficiently in the country. But being there and committing to invest gives it a head start in what could be a very important country on the world's energy stage in the future. Notably, Chevron won't be able to invest $7 billion in a month or two; the cash it is putting into Venezuela is a testament to its long-term commitment. And, over the long term, it should allow the company to increase the amount of oil it produces in the country.
That said, there's no way to predict the future and Venezuela could again descent into political uncertainty. But Chevron's more aggressive approach appears to be paying dividends right now, even though this exposure had been a thorn in the company's side for many years.
Chevron is probably the more attractive energy giant
Although the day-to-day events in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East are pushing oil prices higher and lower, don't overlook the long-term opportunity Chevron has in Venezuela. More conservative Exxon will likely return to the country someday, but Chevron has the lead right now. And then you can add that Chevron's 3.4% yield is nearly a percentage point above Exxon's 2.5%, despite both being among the world's largest energy companies and having decades of annual dividend increases behind them. When you add it up, given their similarities and differences, most dividend lovers will probably find Chevron a more appealing investment opportunity today.
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Chevron Already Committed $7 Billion to Venezuela. Trump Says Exxon Is Next. Here's the Big Difference Between the 2.

Key Points
ExxonMobil is a giant, integrated energy company.
Although Exxon is making capital investments worldwide, one market is especially important to its 2030 target.
If you are tracking Exxon's 2030 progress, you'll want to watch the company's Permian business very closely.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has presented Wall Street with a plan to increase earnings by $25 billion and cash flow by $35 billion by 2030. That goal is still a few years away, however, so it is important to keep an eye on the company's progress. If you own or are watching Exxon, one of the most important pieces of the 2030 puzzle will be the company's Permian business. Here's why onshore U.S. drilling is so important for Exxon right now.
Exxon leans into U.S. oil and natural gas
In late 2023, Exxon announced the $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, a U.S. onshore driller with heavy exposure to the Permian Basin. At the time, the company stated that the deal "transforms ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio, more than doubling the company's Permian footprint." Management highlighted both the benefit of enhanced scale and the importance of technology. The deal closed in early 2024.
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ExxonMobil is one of the world's largest energy companies, with operations worldwide. No one region tells the company's whole story. But the Pioneer acquisition turned the Permian Basin into a key growth area. And it is one that investors should watch very closely as the company looks to achieve its 2030 goals.
One notable part of the plan is to grow Permian production to 2.5 MMboe/d. That would be a roughly 45% increase from year-end 2025. If it hits that mark, this one region would account for 45% of Exxon's total output, by some estimates. That's a huge amount of exposure to just one business. Luckily, the United States is both politically and economically stable, which reduces some of the risks that often accompany large energy investments.
That said, just producing more oil isn't enough for the company to meet its earnings and cash flow goals. Which is why the second key piece to watch is Permian Basin costs. Roughly 60% of the additional earnings and cash flow the company expects come from a mixture of increased production and reduced expenses. Exxon's ability to bring its per-barrel cost in the Permian Basin down to around $30 is something investors will want to keep an eye on.
Exxon's progress will show up year by year
These are fairly big goals, so investors shouldn't expect Exxon to simply announce it has reached its target one random day. Increasing production requires drilling more wells, while lower costs require drilling those oil and natural gas wells more efficiently. Incremental gains are what investors should be looking for.
There's nothing magical about 2028, other than the fact that it is kind of a middle point in the plan. What you really want to see is Exxon making progress toward its goal every year when it releases its annual report. But, at the end of 2028, you kind of want to read that the company is at least halfway there, if not a little more. Your reference point is 2025, when the company's Permian production stood at 1.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. On the cost front, you'll simply want to look for continual progress toward the cost-per-barrel goal.
Exxon's Permian exposure is not the only piece of the puzzle
All of that said, Exxon's business is larger than just the Permian Basin. You'll also want to monitor progress in target regions like Guyana, which the company also believes has structural advantages. And don't forget that the energy giant still needs to operate its businesses beyond a small number of target regions if it wants to hit its 2030 goals. So you really need to take a holistic view as you monitor the company's progress, while still paying extra attention to the Permian.
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Exxon's 2030 Targets Call for $35 Billion More in Cash Flow. Here's the Milestone That Tells You It's on Track By 2028.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation XOM, a U.S. oil and gas giant, has made a new oil and gas discovery offshore Angola at the Vicango East-01 exploration well. The well is located approximately 370 kilometers northwest of Luanda, the capital city of Angola. The exploration well was drilled to a depth of 3,085 feet using the Valaris DS-9 drillship. The oil discovery was made in Block 15 offshore Angola, marking the 20th find in the block over the past 30 years.
The exploratory well has found approximately 82 feet of high-quality sandstone containing hydrocarbons. Angola’s National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency, along with the other partners in Block 15, highlighted that the sandstone had a porosity of 22%, indicating favorable reservoir quality and the potential to hold hydrocarbons. The prolific Block 15 is a major oil and gas resource for Angola, having already produced more than 2.7 billion barrels of oil over the past 30 years. The new hydrocarbon find demonstrates the region’s exploration potential.
ExxonMobil has a successful history of operating in Block 15 for more than 20 years, and the company believes that the offshore block still has significant untapped potential. XOM’s continued exploration efforts underscore its commitment to developing Angola’s offshore resources and expanding its long-term production potential. Furthermore, new discoveries around existing infrastructure could lower the cost and development timelines, accelerating future production.
ExxonMobil operates Block 15, holding a 36% interest in the block through its affiliate Esso Exploration Angola (Block 15) Limited. Azule Angola Limited and Azule Angola BV are partners in the block. The other partners include Equinor Angola Block 15, with a 12% stake, and Sonangol E&P, with 10%.
Angola’s National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency is the concessionaire of Block 15. The regulatory agency attributed the ongoing exploration efforts in Block 15 partly to changes in the country’s legal and fiscal policy frameworks. These include, among other policies, an extension of the Block 15 license until 2032, giving XOM more time to explore and develop resources in the block. Since ExxonMobil believes that Block 15 still has more resources that can be discovered, the extended license and more favorable regulatory and fiscal terms provide XOM with additional time and flexibility to pursue further exploration and development opportunities in the block.
XOM’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
XOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks from the energy sector are Par Pacific Holdings PARR, Valero Energy VLO and Galp Energia SGPS SA GLPEY. While Par Pacific and Valero sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, Galp Energia carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
Par Pacific Holdings operates an integrated downstream energy business across the United States, with fuel retail operations in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho, refining operations in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington and Montana, and a supporting logistics network. Its refineries have a combined crude oil throughput capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, marine fuels, asphalt and other petroleum products.
Valero Energy is a leading refining player with a robust network of 14 refineries and a combined high-complexity throughput capacity of 3 million barrels per day, which distinguishes it from other independent refiners. VLO’s refineries have a combined Nelson Complexity Index of 11.5, which implies that they can process a wide variety of feedstocks, convert them into higher-value products and shift product yields according to market conditions.
Galp Energia is a Portuguese energy company engaged in exploration and production activities. The company’s oil exploration efforts have yielded positive results, particularly with the Mopane discovery in the Orange Basin, offshore Namibia. This discovery allows Galp to diversify its global presence with the potential to become a significant oil producer in the region. It is engaged in the refining and marketing of oil products and gas, as well as marketing and sales.
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ExxonMobil Finds More Hydrocarbons in Angola's Offshore Block 15

When considering dividend-paying stocks, those with a history of increasing payouts are prime candidates, reflecting their commitment to increasingly rewarding shareholders.
And when it comes to a consistent history of increased payouts, look no further than the Dividend Aristocrats. Several members of the club, including Johnson & Johnson JNJ, Coca-Cola KO, and Exxon Mobil XOM, are trading near all-time highs, reflecting bullish momentum driven by strong results or favorable operating conditions.
Below is a chart illustrating the YTD performance of each.
Johnson & Johnson Lifts Outlook
Johnson & Johnson’s biggest strength is its diversified business model, with more than 275 subsidiaries that provide a strong shield against economic fluctuations.
Strong operational performance led the company to increase both its current fiscal year sales and adjusted EPS guidance in its latest quarterly release, with JNJ now on track to meet its 2026 target of more than $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time in its history.
JNJ is not only a Dividend Aristocrat but also a Dividend King, a title held by companies with at least 50 years of consecutive annual dividend increases, owing to its ability to consistently reward shareholders throughout its long-standing history. Shares yield 2.0% annually, nearly double the current yield of the S&P 500.
JNJ is an extremely defensive stock given its ability to generate sales no matter the current backdrop, making it a top-tier option for those seeking a layer of defense paired with predictable dividend payouts. It has also been an excellent earnings performer, posting a double-beat relative to our consensus expectations in nine consecutive quarters.
Coca-Cola Capitalizes on Shifting Consumer Preferences
Coca-Cola’s brand equity, marketing, research, and innovation support a market share of more than 40% in the non-alcoholic beverage industry, with a product portfolio across a broad range of consumer needs and drinking occasions.
Coca-Cola’s latest results reflected nice strength, with Q2 sales climbing 7% YoY to $13.4 billion and EPS jumping 11% to $0.97. Importantly, the company has capitalized well on consumers’ shift and wants toward less-sugary options, reflected in 16% YoY volume growth in Coca-Cola Zero Sugar in the above-mentioned period.
Like JNJ, Coca-Cola is also a Dividend King, known for its consistent, increasing dividend payouts throughout time. Shares currently yield a solid 2.4% annually, with it also sporting a 5% five-year annualized dividend growth rate.
The earnings growth outlook for KO remains solid, with Zacks Consensus estimates suggesting 9.7% earnings growth in 2026 and another 7% in FY27. The growth here is quite strong given its overall mature nature, showcasing its ability to generate higher profits on the back of capitalizing on shifting preferences.
ExxonMobil Benefits Greatly From Higher Oil
ExxonMobil shares have delivered a strong performance in 2026 on the back of higher oil prices stemming from geopolitical concerns. Higher oil prices boost cash generation, which is why it remains a favorite among many income-focused investors.
Free cash flow of $17.5 billion in its latest quarter grew by a triple-digit 600% YoY, reflecting the highly favorable operating environment it’s been sitting in for the bulk of 2026. Shares currently yield 2.5% annually, with XOM carrying a 3.9% five-year annualized dividend growth rate.
That said, oil prices are undoubtedly volatile as we’ve learned this decade, but improved operational efficiencies mean it stays heavily cash-generative even in lower-price environments. Shares currently yield 2.5% annually, and XOM also provides strong shareholder returns through share buybacks.
Bottom Line
Consistently growing dividend payouts reflect rock-solid business fundamentals, with companies like Johnson & Johnson JNJ, Coca-Cola KO, and ExxonMobil XOM all showing their ability to return value to shareholders across different economic environments. Their strong cash-generating abilities also provide a higher level of defense during wider market volatility, offering another advantage for investors seeking a level of stability whenever sentiment shifts.
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3 Top Dividend Aristocrats To Own Near All-Time Highs

Exxon Mobil Holdings (XOM) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Over the past month, shares of this oil and natural gas company have returned +4.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2% change. During this period, the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, which Exxon falls in, has gained 6.3%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Exxon is expected to post earnings of $3.78 per share, indicating a change of +101.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +7.5% over the last 30 days.
The consensus earnings estimate of $11.92 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +70.5%. This estimate has changed +1% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $11.78 indicates a change of -1.2% from what Exxon is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +3.8%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Exxon.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Exxon, the consensus sales estimate of $104.88 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +23%. The $409.73 billion and $405.16 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +23.3% and -1.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Exxon reported revenues of $116.02 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +42.3%. EPS of $3.52 for the same period compares with $1.64 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $95.8 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +21.1%. The EPS surprise was -4.35%.
Over the last four quarters, Exxon surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Exxon is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Exxon. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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Here is What to Know Beyond Why ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) is a Trending Stock

For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – September 11, 2026 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation XOM, BP plc BP and Chevron CVX.
Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:
ExxonMobil Stocks at Premium: Opportunity or Reason to Stay Focused?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is trading at a premium, meaning investors are willing to pay more for the stock. On a relative basis, the stock is trading at a 9.16x trailing 12-month Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA), which is a premium compared with the broader industry average of 5.89x. BP plc and Chevron are trading at 2.93x and 8.04x, respectively.
Given that the integrated energy giant is trading at a premium, what should investors do now? Before getting into it, let’s delve into the company’s fundamentals and overall business environment.
High Oil Price a Boon to XOM’s Operations?
West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude is trading at more than the $95-per-barrel mark. The high prices are being driven by intensifying conflicts in the Middle East. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) in its latest short-term energy outlook projected WTI at $84.65 per barrel this year, higher than $65.40 last year. A highly favorable oil pricing environment is likely to continue supporting ExxonMobil’s exploration and production activities, similar to BP and Chevron.
Importantly, upstream operations generate the majority of earnings for XOM. The company has a massive footprint in the Permian, the most prolific oil and gas play in the United States, and offshore Guyana. In the Permian, the integrated giant has been employing new drilling techniques and artificial intelligence to boost and optimize production volumes at lower cost structures.
In Guyana, XOM has made several oil and gas discoveries, further highlighting its solid production outlook. Robust production from both assets has been aiding its top and bottom lines. In both resources, the breakeven costs are low.
XOM’s Solid Balance & Dividend Commitment
Investors should also keep in mind that XOM has a strong balance sheet that can support it during an unfavorable business environment. The debt-to-capitalization of ExxonMobil is 13.73%, significantly lower than 28.51% of the industry’s composite stocks.
Coming to the integrated energy giant’s dividend commitment story, over the past 43 years, ExxonMobil has been rewarding shareholders with annual dividend hikes at an average rate of 5.8%.
What Should Investors Do Now?
The positive developments are reflected in the price chart. In the past year, XOM has jumped 46%, outpacing the industry’s 45.1% growth. BP and CVX, two other integrated players in the same space, have gained 31.4% and 35.5%, respectively.
Despite all the positive developments and elevated crude prices, it might not be the ideal time for investors to bet on ExxonMobil, as its valuation appears pricey. However, those who have already invested may hold the stock, which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights ExxonMobil, BP and Chevron

Key Points
Oil briefly topped $109/barrel today, and as of this writing is trading above $108/barrel.
Since the onset of the war in Iran, the stocks of ExxonMobil and Chevron have moved in tandem with benchmark Brent Crude oil prices.
Historically, oil prices have seldom gone above $110/barrel and have never sustained that level for more than 3 months.
In absolute terms, the difference between a barrel of oil that costs $99 and a barrel of oil that costs $101 isn't much. But psychologically, that difference is immense.
At the end of the day on Tuesday, a barrel of benchmark Brent Crude oil cost $99.07, but early this morning, it was going for $101.02. Throughout the day, the price climbed higher, briefly topping $109. As of this writing, the per-barrel price of the global benchmark is over $108.
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That's bad news for just about everybody... except shares of U.S. oil companies like Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM). But now that oil has broken through the $100/barrel threshold, is it too late to buy shares of Chevron?
Here's what history says is the answer.
Image source: Getty Images.
Oil price spikes have lifted Chevron's stock.
Because the war in Iran has been going on for so long, there's plenty of evidence that Chevron's stock is moving in tandem with Brent Crude oil prices.
Over the six and a half months of the conflict, the price of Brent Crude has bounced around wildly. It began the war at about $70/barrel, but soared to $109/barrel in early April, slipped to $90/barrel in late April, and peaked at a high of $114/barrel in early May.
After a ceasefire agreement was signed in June, the Brent Crude price fell back down to $72/barrel, but it steadily climbed again as the war dragged on through August, and is showing no signs of dropping again.
Both Chevron's and ExxonMobil's stock prices have mostly moved in tandem with the Brent Crude price. Their shares surged when Brent Crude prices rose in March, May, July, and August, and dropped when Brent Crude prices fell in April and June. The pattern has been crystal clear.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why the pattern should continue
The reason Chevron's share price has risen and fallen in tandem with Brent Crude prices during the war is that the vast majority of Chevron's production is located outside the Middle East.
Aside from a small amount of onshore production in the Partitioned Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Chevron doesn't have any production operations in the Persian Gulf. Its main oil production operations are in the U.S., Kazakhstan, and Argentina, none of which are directly affected by the war in Iran.
This allows Chevron to benefit from higher global oil prices driven by Middle East supply disruptions while still producing plenty of oil to sell at those inflated prices.
Is it too late to invest?
Unfortunately for would-be Chevron investors, if the historical pattern holds, it is probably too late to squeeze much short-term gain out of the current situation by buying Chevron stock.
With Brent Crude prices already above $108/barrel, they're approaching the peak levels we saw in March and May. And after those short-lived peaks, Chevron's stock declined sharply, dropping 13% from its March high by mid-April, and 16% from its May high by early July.
Today, Chevron's stock is up 28.4% from that July low and trading at an all-time high.
Historically speaking, oil prices have rarely moved above $110/barrel. Even when they have, they've hardly ever stayed at that level for long. The longest sustained period in history during which Brent Crude prices remained above $110/barrel lasted only three months (Feb. through April of 2012).
In other words, for oil prices to go up from here and stay up for longer than three months would constitute a never-before-seen historical anomaly. But that's the only way Chevron's stock would go up significantly in the short term, if the historical patterns hold.
Historical anomalies do sometimes happen, but betting on them is a risky investment strategy. Instead, investors should expect Chevron's share price to decline along with oil prices in the near future. Exactly how soon it will happen, though, is anyone's guess.
Should you buy stock in Chevron right now?
Before you buy stock in Chevron, consider this:
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John Bromels has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oil Just Topped $109. Is It Too Late to Buy Chevron (CVX)? History Has a Clear Answer.

Key Points
Chevron’s scale and diversification make it a reliable long-term investment.
It has plenty of room to raise its dividend, and it will eventually become a Dividend King.
Income-oriented investors often buy oil stocks to earn steady dividends. However, many of those stocks are also tightly tethered to volatile oil prices. When oil prices surge, these companies generate plenty of cash to cover their dividends. But when oil prices pull back, the less diversified companies with weaker balance sheets will likely reduce those payments.
That said, there's still one resilient oil stock I'd be comfortable buying in September, even though it's historically the weakest month for the stock market. That stock is Chevron (NYSE: CVX), one of the world's largest integrated energy companies.
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Why is Chevron more resilient than other oil companies?
Chevron owns upstream, midstream, and downstream businesses. Upstream companies, which extract oil, typically benefit most from rising oil prices because their revenues increase faster than their expenses. Midstream companies, which build the infrastructure to transport those resources, can grow as long as gas and oil keep flowing through their pipelines.
Downstream companies that operate refineries and chemical production plants generally fare better when crude oil prices are lower, since their input costs are pegged to the spread between crude oil costs and retail fuel prices. Chevron's diversification across all three industries helps it better withstand market downturns than smaller companies that focus on a single market.
Chevron still generates most of its profits from its upstream business, so it's benefited from the conflict-driven spike in oil prices over the past six months. However, it only needs the price of Brent crude oil -- which recently rose above $100 per barrel -- to remain above its breakeven price of about $50 per barrel to comfortably cover its capex and dividends.
Chevron has a presence in 180 countries, but it gets most of its oil and natural gas from the U.S., Kazakhstan, and Australia. It's also less dependent on the Middle East than most of its industry peers, including ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and BP (NYSE: BP).
At the end of the second quarter, Chevron had $8.53 billion in cash and equivalents with a low net debt ratio of 13.1%. That fortress balance sheet should shield it from the next market crash.
Chevron expects to increase its oil and gas production by 2%-3% annually through 2030. That growth should be supported by its Tengiz Field in Kazakhstan, its main Permian Basin field in the U.S., its deepwater projects across the Gulf of Mexico, new natural gas projects in Australia, and its growth in Guyana -- one of the fastest-growing oil regions in the world.
It also aims to reduce its structural costs by up to $4 billion by the end of 2026, increase its synergies from Hess (which it acquired last July) to $1.5 billion, and buy back up to $20 billion in shares every year -- as long as the price of Brent crude oil stays at about $60-$80 per barrel.
Why is Chevron a rock-solid dividend investment?
Chevron currently pays a forward yield of 3.4%. It's raised its dividend annually for 39 consecutive years, even as the U.S. endured four recessions. If it maintains that streak for 50 years in a row, it will become a Dividend King. Over the past 12 months, Chevron spent just 51% of its free cash flow (FCF) on its dividends, leaving it plenty of room for future hikes.
Over the past 20 years, Chevron delivered a total return of 618% with reinvested dividends. It didn't outperform the S&P 500's (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) total return of 755%, but it easily beat ExxonMobil and BP's total returns of 391% and 100%, respectively.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Chevron's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 4% and 24%, respectively. Those are robust growth rates for a stock that trades at 16 times next year's earnings. By comparison, the S&P 500 is trading at 20 times forward earnings. So if you're looking for a cheap oil dividend stock to buy this month, Chevron checks all the right boxes.
Should you buy stock in Chevron right now?
Before you buy stock in Chevron, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Chevron wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $410,024!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,372,815!*
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool recommends BP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.

This Is the First Oil Dividend Stock I'd Buy in September

With oil prices surging again, BP BP) is emerging as one of the more compelling large-cap energy stocks to consider.
Brent crude climbed back above $100 per barrel on Wednesday, creating another powerful cash-flow tailwind for integrated oil producers.
That is particularly attractive for BP, considering the company was already generating immense amounts of cash before crude's latest move higher.
Along with strengthening fundamentals and an improving earnings outlook, investors are getting a dividend yield of more than 4.5% and a stock that still trades at a very reasonable valuation.
BP's Immense Cash Flow
Last month, BP's second-quarter results showcased just how much cash the company can generate in a favorable energy environment.
Operating cash flow surged 73% year over year to $10.86 billion in Q2, compared with $6.27 billion in the prior-year period. Underlying replacement cost profit more than doubled to $5.73 billion, aided by higher energy prices, stronger refining margins, and trading results.
Importantly, this cash generation is strengthening BP's balance sheet as well. Net debt fell to $22.25 billion, compared with $26.04 billion a year earlier. At the end of Q2, BP had over $45 billion in cash and equivalents and more than $294 billion in total assets, which is nicely above its total liabilities of $218.2 billion.
Investors are also being rewarded directly, with BP raising its quarterly dividend by more than 4% to $0.52 per share. With Brent now above $100, BP's already impressive cash-flow profile could receive another boost if elevated oil prices persist.
BP's Growth Outlook & Soaring EPS Revisions
BP still has several avenues to expand earnings and cash flow beyond simply relying on higher commodity prices.
The company has been ramping up a wave of major upstream developments, with eight of 10 major projects scheduled between 2025 and 2027 already online as of July.
BP has also targeted adjusted free-cash-flow growth of more than 20% annually from 2024 through 2027, along with return on average capital employed (ROACE) above 16% in 2027.
Near-term earnings expectations are particularly strong. The Zacks Consensus currently calls for 2026 EPS of $6.45, representing growth of more than 123%, while revenue is projected to rise roughly 21% to $232.88 billion.
Although FY27 EPS is projected to normalize to $4.95 following an exceptional FY26, earnings estimates have climbed sharply over the last 60 days, with the FY27 EPS consensus rising nearly 25% (F2 below) and FY26 EPS estimates jumping almost 30% (F1).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BP's Attractive Valuation
Despite its rising earnings outlook and robust cash generation, BP stock remains relatively inexpensive even after a 30% year-to-date surge toward 52-week highs.
Trading at around $45 a share, BP stock is at a 7X forward earnings multiple. This is still a notable discount to oil giants Chevron CVX) and Exxon Mobil XOM), which trade at roughly 12X forward earnings, respectively.
BP's price-to-cash-flow ratio of 4X also sits well below many of its large-cap oil peers, with Chevron and Exxon both trading at around 12X cash flow.
That combination of a low earnings multiple, massive cash flows, and a dividend yield above 4.5% makes BP particularly appealing for investors looking for both value and income exposure to elevated oil prices.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Of course, a sharp reversal in crude prices would temper BP's earnings and cash-flow outlook. Still, the current setup is difficult to overlook, with Brent above $100, BP producing billions of dollars in quarterly cash flow, reducing debt, growing its dividend, and advancing several major upstream projects.
At the moment, BP stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has an overall "A" VGM Zacks Style Scores grade for the combination of Value, Growth, and Momentum.
For investors seeking exposure to high oil prices without paying a premium valuation, BP looks like one of the best stocks to consider right now.
Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double"
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This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Why BP Is One of the Best Oil Stocks to Buy Right Now

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down -0.48% on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.29%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -0.46%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) fell -0.30%.
Stock indexes retreated on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to a 5-week low. The broader market was under pressure for a second day amid mounting inflation risks. WTI crude oil prices surged more than +3% today to a 3.25-month high amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, heightening concerns about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge in energy prices is boosting inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield rose to 4.85% on Wednesday, the highest in 2.75 years. The higher bond yields weighed on stocks.
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On the positive side, chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gained on Wednesday. Energy producers also rose on stronger crude oil prices.
The escalating trade war between the US and Canada is also weighing on market sentiment. On Tuesday, Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of US goods in retaliation for the US action last month to impose 50% tariffs on $20 billion of imports from Canada. The US responded by moving to block imports of some Canadian products and slapping new tariffs on others, as well as seeking to bar Canadian companies from selling to US government contractors.
US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.7% in the week ended September 4, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.2% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -6.2%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +6 bp to a 14-month high of 6.85% from 6.79% in the prior week.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) surged more than +3% on Wednesday to a 3.25-month high due to the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers carrying crude in response to two attempts by Iran to hit US Navy ships with ballistic missiles. Iran responded by firing missiles at a US air base in Jordan and warning ships in the Persian Gulf that they would be attacked. Iran also said on Wednesday that it is ready for a more intense war and will escalate counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure.
The markets are discounting a 61% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 5-week low and closed down -1.58%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.28%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.19%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed down by -7.5 ticks on Wednesday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.5 bp to 4.833%. T-notes fell to a 20-month nearest-futures low on Wednesday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2.75-year high of 4.853%. T-notes are under pressure from higher crude oil prices, which are boosting inflation expectations, as WTI crude oil rose more than +3% on Wednesday to a 3.25-month high. T-notes added to their losses on Wednesday after the Treasury announced that it will buy back up to $6 billion in longer-dated US Treasuries, below expectations of at least $10 billion.
T-notes recovered from their worst level on Wednesday amid strong demand for the Treasury’s $39 billion auction of 10-year T-notes. The auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.71, well above the 10-auction average of 2.49.
European government bond yields moved higher on Wednesday. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a new 15-year high of 3.444% and finished up +7.8 bp on that high. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +8.8 bp to 5.261%.
French July manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase.
Markets are discounting a 100% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at Thursday’s policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Telecommunication and cable providers moved lower on Wednesday, led by a -6% fall in Comcast (CMCSA), which led losers in the Nasdaq 100 after CFO Armstrong said he sees no improvement in Q3 broadband subscriber losses. Charter Communications (CHTR) also fell more than 8%, and Verizon Communications (VZ) and AT&T (T) closed down more than 1%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks moved higher on Wednesday, limiting losses in the overall market. Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +4%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +3%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +2%, and ARM Holdings (ARM), Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +1%.
Energy producers and service providers rallied on Wednesday after WTI crude oil rose more than +3% to a 3.25-month high. APA Corp (APA) and ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) closed up more than +2%. Also, Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +1%.
ServiceTitan (TTAN) closed down more than -29% after reporting a Q2 EPS loss of -26 cents, a bigger loss than the consensus of -25 cents.
Casy’s General Stores (CASY) closed down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting a Q1 gross margin of 21.8%, below the consensus of 22.3%.
Chewy (CHWY) closed down more than -10% after forecasting a sequential decline in Q3 gross margin, due to a timing shift as certain rebate benefits shifted from the second half of the year into Q2.
Smithfield Foods (SFD) closed down more than -6% after cutting its Q3 earnings outlook, citing “continued compression in the industry fresh pork market spread and lower hog prices.”
Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) closed down more than -5% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $10.
Booking Holdings (BKNG) closed down more than -3% after losing an EU court fight over its takeover of Sweden’s Etraveli Group, when a judge said regulators were right to conclude that the planned buyout threatened fair competition.
Chime Financial (CHYM) closed up more than +7% after boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $2.76 billion to $2.77 billion from a previous forecast of $2.73 billion to $2.75 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.74 billion.
Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +6% after analysts reported positive reviews of the company’s debut of Muse, an AI assistant.
HP Inc (HPQ) closed up more than +3% after announcing a pact with Red Hat on an AI platform.
Sysco (SYY) closed up more than +2% after raising its mid-term financial targets for fiscal years 2028 and 2029 to annualized net sales growth of 4% to 7%, up from a previous view of 4% to 6%.
Earnings Reports (9/10/2026)
Adobe Inc (ADBE), Copart Inc (CPRT), Macy's Inc (M), Oracle Corp (ORCL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.