Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and Rest of the Americas. The company operates through Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions segments. It explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; markets and transports oil and gas; produces gas-to-liquids fuels and other products; and operates upstream and midstream infrastructure necessary to deliver gas to market. The company also markets and trades natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, electricity, carbon-emission rights; and markets and sells LNG as a fuel for heavy-duty vehicles. In addition, it trades in and refines crude oil and other feed stocks, such as low-carbon fuels, lubricants, bitumen, sulphur, gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and marine fuel; produces and sells petrochemicals for industrial use; and manages oil sands activities. Further, the company produces base chemicals comprising ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, as well as intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer, propylene oxide, solvents, detergent alcohols, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol. Additionally, it generates electricity through wind and solar resources; produces and sells hydrogen; and provides electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Shell PLC

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Avantis International Equity ETF (Symbol: AVDE) where we have detected an approximate $265.5 million dollar inflow -- that's a 2.1% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 145,300,000 to 148,300,000). Among the largest underlying components of AVDE, in trading today ASML Holding NV (Symbol: ASML) is down about 2.1%, HSBC Holdings plc (Symbol: HSBC) is down about 1.9%, and Shell plc American Depositary Shares (each Represe (Symbol: SHEL) is higher by about 0.3%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the AVDE Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of AVDE, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, AVDE's low point in its 52 week range is $58.555 per share, with $88.67 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $87.67. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AVDE, ASML, HSBC, SHEL: ETF Inflow Alert

Chevron Corporation CVX is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $52.7 billion, implying only a modest increase of 0.8% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings mark of $1.47 per share has been revised downward by 6.2% over the past seven days, suggesting a nearly 29% decline from the year-ago reported number.
For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s revenues is pegged at $191.8 billion, implying a decrease of 5.5% year over year. The consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share stands at $7.25, indicating a contraction of around 27.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVX's Earnings Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 11.5%. Chevron’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other, with the average surprise being 2.8%.
Chevron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Q4 Earnings Whispers for Chevron
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Chevron for the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of a beat. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -2.39%.
Zacks Rank: CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping CVX’s Upcoming Q4 Results
Even though Chevron’s upstream production momentum remains strong, the earnings benefit in the fourth quarter could have been muted by weaker realized oil prices and higher depreciation costs. During the third quarter, Chevron delivered record upstream volumes, with worldwide production exceeding 4 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day, helped by growth in the Permian, Gulf of America and TengizChevroil (TCO). However, management clearly highlighted that upstream earnings declined year over year due to lower liquids realizations, even as volumes rose. This pricing pressure is likely to have persisted in the fourth quarter, as WTI prices averaged around $60 per barrel versus roughly $70 a year earlier, and the broader oil market remains oversupplied heading into early 2026.
At the same time, Chevron is absorbing higher depreciation, depletion and amortization tied to increased production from capital-intensive assets such as TCO and newly integrated Hess properties. These costs rise mechanically as volumes grow and can offset the earnings lift from higher output. As a result, even with operational execution improving, fourth-quarter upstream profitability may have remained under pressure. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter upstream earnings is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating a decline of 33% year over year.
Chevron’s ongoing capital commitments might have been another potential drag on fourth-quarter earnings. While the company emphasizes capital discipline, total spending remains substantial, with organic capital expenditures of $4.4 billion in the third quarter and full-year 2025 capex guidance of $17–$17.5 billion, including Hess. Importantly, several high-profile initiatives — such as upstream integration of Hess assets, continued investment in TCO and potential expansion activities in Venezuela — require significant upfront capital before meaningful cash returns are realized.
On a somewhat positive note, Chevron’s downstream business is positioned to have provided a useful earnings cushion in the fourth quarter, supported by better refining economics and structural cost improvements. In third-quarter 2025, adjusted downstream earnings increased both sequentially and year over year, driven by higher refining volumes, improved refining margins and favorable operating expense timing.
In addition, Chevron has already captured approximately $1.5 billion in annual run-rate savings from its new operating model, with management explicitly stating that further benefits are expected in the fourth quarter. These savings help offset volatility in refining markets and improve earnings resilience. When combined with Chevron’s strong West Coast and Gulf Coast refining footprint, this positions the downstream segment to positively contribute to fourth-quarter results. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s fourth-quarter downstream income is pegged at $760 million, implying a significant turnaround from a loss of $248 million in the year-ago period.
Updates From Chevron’s Global Peers: ExxonMobil and Shell
Rival ExxonMobil XOM also highlighted a similar trend, noting that the decline in liquids prices may have a negative impact of nearly $800 million to $1.2 billion on its upstream earnings compared to the third quarter. ExxonMobil has also mentioned that changes in gas prices, which include the impact of shifts in natural gas realizations, may result in a swing ranging from a negative $300 million to a positive $100 million on a sequential basis. For Energy Products, the company estimates that changes in industry margins are expected to have a positive impact of nearly $300-$700 million, whereas for Specialty Products, ExxonMobil expects to add up to $200 million in incremental earnings compared with the third quarter.
Another of Chevron’s ‘Big Oil’ peers, Shell SHEL, projected an increase in oil and gas production during the fourth quarter of 2025, even as it flagged a significant downturn in the oil trading performance. This mixed forecast follows a turbulent period for Shell, with fluctuating crude prices and shifting market dynamics adversely impacting key aspects of its business operations. Another notable development in Shell’s fourth-quarter performance is the completion of the Canadian oil sands swap. This strategic transaction, which involved a shift in assets between Shell and other industry players, will result in a reduction in oil sands production in the quarter.
CVX Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Shares of Chevron have gone up 7.2% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of more than 10%. Shares of XOM have gained 21%, while Shell stock has inched up 1.4%.
6-Month Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — Chevron is trading at a premium compared to the industry average. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 11.86.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should You Play CVX Pre-Q4 Earnings?
Chevron entered the fourth quarter with solid operations but limited near-term upside. Upstream production continues to improve, supported by the Permian, Gulf of America and the Hess assets. Yet, weaker oil prices and higher depreciation costs are weighing on earnings despite higher volumes. Downstream performance has been a relative bright spot, helped by better refining margins, higher throughput and cost savings that should carry into the fourth quarter. Still, elevated capital spending for integration, maintenance and future growth projects is putting pressure on free cash flow in a softer pricing environment. With oil markets oversupplied, valuation still rich versus peers and earnings momentum constrained in the near term, the risk-reward looks unfavorable. Hence, investors should avoid the stock for now.
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Here's How to Play Chevron Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release

Shell plc SHEL is considering a potential sale of some or all of its assets in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play. The company has reportedly approached potential buyers in recent weeks to assess market interest, though no final decision has been made.
The assets, located in Argentina’s Neuquen basin, could be highly valued, running into billions of dollars. However, an exact valuation remains uncertain due to a mix of undeveloped acreage and fluctuating commodity prices.
A Possible Exit From a High-Profile Shale Play
A full divestment would represent a surprising move, as Shell was one of the earliest international oil majors to back the Vaca Muerta formation. Interest in the region has been growing as concerns mount that other major shale basins, including the Permian in the United States, may be nearing peak production.
The potential sale would also follow Shell’s recent decision to exit the Argentina LNG project after state-owned YPF Sociedad Anónima YPF reduced the project’s planned capacity. Together, these moves point to a broader reassessment of the company’s exposure to Argentina.
YPF is one of the primary players in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, which earmarked a $3.3 billion investment in the premier shale play, providing a significant boost to the Argentinian energy sector. The company intended to raise its oil production from Vaca Muerta to nearly 200,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025 and it also exports a significant portion of its production volume, boosting its earnings capability.
Shell’s Footprint in Argentina
Shell entered the Vaca Muerta shale play in 2012 and has steadily expanded its presence. The company currently holds four majority-owned and operated license blocks, along with minority stakes in three additional blocks operated by YPF. According to Shell’s latest annual report, production from Argentina totaled around 15.6 million barrels in 2024.
Any decision to sell would mark a major shift in Shell’s long-standing involvement in one of South America’s most promising energy regions.
Portfolio Streamlining Under New Leadership
Since Wael Sawan took over as CEO in 2023, Shell has accelerated efforts to streamline its portfolio and improve performance. The company has been selling assets following the underwhelming returns from earlier bets on a rapid transition from oil to renewable energy.
Recently, the company planned to exit Syria’s al-Omar oilfield and is exploring sale options for its stake in LNG Canada. A potential Vaca Muerta divestment would align with this broader strategy.
Why Vaca Muerta Remains Attractive
Despite Shell’s review, Vaca Muerta continues to draw strong interest from producers seeking new growth opportunities. Only about 8% of the formation has been developed, compared with the heavily drilled Permian basin. According to U.S. government estimates, Vaca Muerta holds the world’s second-largest shale gas and fourth-largest shale oil resources.
Earlier this month, Continental Resources acquired minority stakes in four Vaca Muerta blocks, calling the region one of the most compelling shale plays in the world.
Cost Challenges and Competitive Economics
The shale play has seen rapid production growth, but several challenges remain. Declining oil prices, higher production costs and transportation bottlenecks have the potential to slow future development. According to Chevron Corporation CVX, drilling costs in Vaca Muerta are 35% higher than in the Permian basin. Even so, Shell’s assets in the region are believed to break even at Brent oil prices below $50 per barrel, making them competitive compared to many global shale plays.
Chevron also maintains a steady presence in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale and eyes it as an increasingly vital part of its global portfolio. Chevron has played a major role in the progress of Vaca Muerta, applying its U.S. shale expertise, especially from the Permian Basin, to boost efficiency and well performance.
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Shell Weighs Exit From Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale Assets

Shell plc SHEL is reportedly seeking an exit from Syria’s al-Omar oilfield, the country’s largest producing asset, as the government regains control of key energy infrastructure and U.S. companies signal renewed interest in the sector. The development highlights a potential reshaping of Syria’s oil and gas industry more than a decade after the war and sanctions forced Western majors to pull back.
Shell’s Long-Suspended Presence in Syria
According to Syria’s state-run Syrian Petroleum Company, Shell has asked to withdraw from the al-Omar oilfield and transfer its stake to state-owned operators. The field was operated as a joint venture between Shell and the Syrian Petroleum Company before the conflict erupted in 2011.
Shell, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suspended all exploration and production activities in Syria in December 2011 following the outbreak of the civil war and the imposition of European Union sanctions on Syria’s oil sector. Since then, its stake in al-Omar has remained inactive, with negotiations now underway to reach a financial settlement that would allow full state control of the asset.
While Shell has not publicly commented on the request, Syrian officials said the transition could be completed in a short period, though no specific timeline has been disclosed.
Al-Omar Returns to Government Control
The move comes after Syrian government forces regained control of the al-Omar oilfield following a swift offensive against Kurdish forces, who had held the site for nearly a decade. During that time, the field was used partly as a military base and operated at a fraction of its potential capacity.
At its peak, al-Omar produced around 50,000 barrels per day. Under Kurdish control, output reportedly fell to about 5,000 barrels per day, using what officials described as basic and damaging production methods. As a result, the field now requires significant repairs and modernization before it can return to meaningful production levels.
U.S. Companies Eye a Return to Syria
Even as Shell seeks an exit, U.S. energy firms appear to be exploring opportunities in Syria’s battered oil and gas sector. Syrian officials said ConocoPhillips COP is expected to return to invest in gas fields. COP also entered into a memorandum of understanding with Syria in November 2025 to develop their existing gas resources and explore new ones. Per the new memorandum with ConocoPhillips, the gas output is expected to rise by 4-5 million cubic meters per day within the span of one year.
Other U.S. companies, including Chevron Corporation CVX and HKN Energy, have also expressed interest. While Chevron did not comment, the company acknowledged it routinely reviews various investment opportunities to support its upstream business. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa recently met Chevron representatives in Damascus, signaling growing diplomatic and commercial engagement.
Officials also said Chevron could invest in offshore fields, with Syria aiming to resume oil and gas exports in the future.
Oil Production in Syria Falls Far Below Pre-War Levels
Despite the renewed interest, Syria’s oil sector remains a shadow of its former self. Current production across the country is estimated at less than 100,000 barrels per day, down sharply from about 400,000 barrels per day before the war began in 2011.
Some oilfields in the northeastern province of Hasakah are still outside full government control, but authorities say efforts are underway to secure all remaining sites. Once control is consolidated, Damascus plans to rebuild production capacity and attract foreign investment to revive output.
What Comes Next for Syria’s Energy Industry
Shell’s exit from al-Omar marks the end of an era for one of Syria’s most important energy partnerships. At the same time, growing interest from U.S. firms suggests a possible shift in the country’s energy landscape, provided political, security and sanctions-related hurdles can be managed.
For Syria, the challenge will be modernizing damaged fields, restoring production and translating renewed investor interest into tangible gains for an industry that once formed the backbone of its economy.
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Shell Seeks Syria Exit While U.S. Firms Eye Al-Omar Oilfield

Per Reuters, oil major Shell plc SHEL and Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi Corp are exploring potential sale options for their stakes in the C$40 billion LNG Canada project. The move comes as the project’s owners consider a possible expansion and follows Petronas’ recent partial exit from the venture.
LNG Canada, located in Kitimat, British Columbia, is one of the most strategically positioned LNG export facilities in North America, with direct access to the Pacific Coast and Asian markets.
Shell held a strong position as a global LNG leader, with LNG Canada’s Train 1 already operational and Train 2 expected to start by year-end, adding significant export capacity. The project enhanced Shell’s ability to capture value through higher liquefaction volumes and optimized trading margins, particularly from favorable pricing spreads between Asia and Europe.
Taking a Look at the LNG Canada Joint Venture Project
The LNG Canada project was originally a joint venture comprising Shell (40%), Malaysia’s Petronas (25%), Mitsubishi Corporation (15%), PetroChina (15%) and Korea Gas Corporation (5%). It stands as the first large-scale LNG project in Canada to begin production and the first major LNG facility in North America with direct access to the Pacific Coast, offering a faster shipping route to Asia’s markets compared with terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, Petronas sold a fifth of its stake recently, following which these two energy giants also took a bold decision to sell their stake.
Shell Sounds Out Buyers for a Major Stake
Shell, the largest shareholder with a 40% interest, has reportedly been working with Rothschild & Co to gauge investor interest. Sources indicate Shell could sell up to three-quarters of its holding, equivalent to around 30% of the overall project, though it remains open to multiple structuring options.
Shell is said to be evaluating its exposure differently for Phase 1, which is already operational, and the proposed Phase 2 expansion, which carries higher capital and execution risks. One estimate suggests a buyer could face a commitment of roughly $15 billion, factoring in equity, debt and future capital needs tied to Phase 2.
Despite any potential sale, Shell has indicated it would retain a long-term gas supply contract with the terminal, potentially spanning 30 years.
Mitsubishi Hires RBC as Review Begins
Mitsubishi, which owns a 15% stake in LNG Canada, has hired RBC Capital Markets to advise on its options. Sources caution that discussions are still at an early stage, and any formal sale process is unlikely to begin until later this year. It remains unclear how much of Mitsubishi’s stake could ultimately be offered to the market.
Neither Shell nor Mitsubishi has confirmed the deliberations, and all parties involved have declined to comment publicly.
Ownership Changes Follow Petronas Deal
The potential stake sales come shortly after MidOcean Energy, backed by EIG and Saudi Aramco, acquired a fifth of the Petronas-led venture that held a 25% stake in LNG Canada.
Such portfolio reshuffling is common once large infrastructure projects move into the operational phase, allowing developers to recycle capital into new opportunities.
Cost Advantage Tempered by Market Risks
LNG Canada benefits from a structural cost advantage, as Canadian natural gas prices typically trade at a discount to the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark. This makes the project competitive on the global cost curve, particularly for Asian buyers.
However, investors are also weighing concerns about a potential global LNG oversupply, with several new export projects coming online. Recent pauses in other North American LNG developments highlight the caution creeping into the market.
Operational challenges have also emerged. While LNG Canada began production in June, its second processing unit, Train 2, experienced an outage in December, just weeks after startup.
Expansion Decision Looms
When fully ramped up, Phase 1 of LNG Canada is expected to export 14 million metric tons of LNG annually. Partners are working toward a final investment decision on Phase 2 as early as this year, which would double the facility’s capacity.
For Shell and Mitsubishi, any stake sale would mark a strategic rebalancing — monetizing a mature asset while maintaining exposure to LNG growth in a market that remains central to global energy transitions.
SHEL’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
London-based Shell is one of the primary oil supermajors — a group of U.S. and Europe-based big energy multinationals with operations that span almost every corner of the globe. Currently, SHEL has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Investors interested in the energy sector may consider some top-ranked stocks like Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE, Oceaneering International, Inc. OII and TechnipFMC plc FTI. While Cenovus Energy and Oceaneering International currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, TechnipFMC carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Calgary, Canada-based Cenovus Energy is a leading integrated energy firm. The company’s operations comprise marketing the produced oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVE’s 2025 earnings indicates 26.2% year-over-year growth.
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Newcastle & Houston-based TechnipFMC plc is a leading manufacturer and supplier of products, services and fully integrated technology solutions for the energy industry. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTI’s 2025 earnings indicates 24.7% year-over-year growth.
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Shell & Mitsubishi Weigh LNG Canada Stake Sales Amid Expansion Plans

Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG, in its recent SEC filing, flagged a tougher pricing environment for the fourth quarter, as falling oil and gas prices weigh on revenues. The update offers a clear snapshot of the pressure facing U.S. shale producers after a volatile year for crude markets, with oversupply worries and trade concerns overpowering geopolitical risks.
Oil & Gas Realizations Move Lower
The company said the average realized price for its oil production dropped to $58 per barrel in the fourth quarter, down from $64.60 per barrel in the previous three-month period. This decline mirrors broader market trends, as oil prices fell more than 9% during the fourth quarter ending December 2025. Natural gas pricing also weakened, with Diamondback Energy realizing $1.03 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) after hedging, compared with $1.75 per Mcf in the third quarter.
These lower realizations are significant for a producer like Diamondback Energy, where pricing has a direct impact on cash flows and near-term profitability. The company’s update suggests that even disciplined operators are not insulated from broader commodity cycles.
Market Pressures Extend Beyond Diamondback Energy
The pricing headwinds highlighted by Diamondback Energy, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), are not isolated. Brent crude futures fell roughly 19% in 2025, marking their steepest annual decline since 2020 and the third consecutive year of losses. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude posted a similar drop of nearly 20% for the year.
Just days before Diamondback Energy’s disclosure, Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM also warned that lower crude prices could cut its quarterly upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion. Similarly, Shell plc SHEL has cautioned that its oil trading performance weakened sharply in the fourth quarter. Thereby, it expects the fourth-quarter results to be much lower than the previous quarter, largely due to a steep fall in crude oil prices. Recent months have seen increased volatility in global oil markets, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and changing demand trends.
Together, these signals underline the extent of pressure across the energy sector as producers adjust to weaker pricing assumptions.
What Analysts Are Expecting Next
Analysts say Diamondback Energy’s realized pricing was slightly weaker than expected for oil and natural gas liquids, though gas realizations were largely in line with forecasts. According to Siebert Williams Shank & Co., the softer pricing is likely to put some pressure on fourth-quarter earnings, prompting analysts to revise their models to reflect actual market conditions. The outlook suggests that while pricing remains a headwind, expectations already reflect a more cautious view of the energy market as producers head into the new year.
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Diamondback Energy Braces for Q4 Earnings Hit as Oil Prices Slide

Shell plc (SHEL), the global energy giant, has projected an increase in oil and gas production during the fourth quarter of 2025, even as it flagged a significant downturn in the oil trading performance. This mixed forecast follows a turbulent period for the company, with fluctuating crude oil prices and shifting market dynamics impacting key aspects of its business operations.
Q4 Upstream Production to Rise to 1.94 Million Boe/d
London-based Integrated Oil and Gas company has confirmed that its fourth-quarter upstream production, which relates to the extraction of crude oil and natural gas, is expected to be between 1.84 million and 1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). This represents a slight increase compared with the 1.83 million boe/d produced in third-quarter 2025 due to the incorporation of Adura JV. The company’s ability to maintain or slightly boost production amid global volatility highlights its operational resilience and strategic approach to resource extraction.
The increase in oil and gas production is part of Shell's broader strategy to strengthen its position in the energy market. This boost is likely attributed to a combination of new projects coming online, improved output from existing fields and ongoing investments in cutting-edge drilling technologies. Despite the anticipated rise in production, challenges related to pricing and market demand fluctuations continue to impact the profitability of the company's operations.
Oil Trading Performance Declines Significantly
In contrast to the positive outlook for production, Shell has warned of a significant decline in its oil trading performance for the fourth quarter. The company stated that oil trading results would be "significantly lower" compared with the previous quarter, primarily due to the steep drop in crude oil prices. The global oil market has experienced heightened volatility in recent months, with crude prices fluctuating in response to geopolitical tensions and shifting demand dynamics.
Shell’s trading division has historically been a significant contributor to its earnings, but the sharp fall in crude prices during the fourth quarter has undoubtedly exerted pressure on margins. This change in market conditions underlines the challenges facing companies in the oil and gas sector, where price volatility remains a persistent risk factor.
Seasonal and Tax-Related Pressures on Marketing Earnings
Shell’s marketing division also faces headwinds in the fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings expected to be under pressure. Seasonal factors are likely contributing to weaker performance, as colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere often lead to lower demand for certain energy products, including refined fuels and natural gas. In addition to these seasonal impacts, Shell has also indicated that a non-cash deferred tax adjustment will further exacerbate the pressure on marketing earnings.
Deferred tax adjustments, while non-cash in nature, can still significantly affect a company’s financial outlook. In Shell's case, these adjustments are likely tied to its ongoing efforts to optimize the tax strategy amid the complexities of global taxation laws. This development is something investors and analysts will be watching closely, as it may have longer-term implications for Shell’s profitability.
Chemical Sub-Segment Faces Steep Losses in Q4
The company also disclosed that its chemicals sub-segment would see a considerable loss in adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter. The chemicals and products division, which has been a significant area of focus for Shell in recent years, has encountered a variety of challenges, from volatile raw material costs to shifting market demands.
Shell's chemical division, which produces a wide range of products including plastics, detergents and specialty chemicals, is expected to experience losses below break-even in the fourth quarter. This reflects broader market conditions, such as lower industrial demand, increased competition and cost pressures related to feedstock and energy prices. These factors are compounded by the ongoing global economic slowdown, which has dampened demand across various industrial sectors.
Impact of Canadian Oil Sands Swap on Q4 Production
Another notable development in Shell’s fourth-quarter performance is the completion of the Canadian oil sands swap. This strategic transaction, which involved a shift in assets between Shell and other industry players, will result in a reduction in oil sands production for fourth-quarter 2025. Specifically, Shell has indicated that its oil sands production in the fourth quarter will be approximately 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
While this may appear as a small fraction of Shell’s overall production, the shift in assets is part of a broader strategic effort to align its portfolio with long-term sustainability goals. Shell has been gradually transitioning away from higher-carbon oil sands projects, focusing instead on lower-carbon energy solutions, including renewables and cleaner technologies. As such, the Canadian oil sands swap represents a critical piece of Shell’s ongoing transformation as it moves toward a more sustainable energy future.
Conclusion: Navigating Challenges While Securing Production Gains
Shell’s outlook for fourth-quarter 2025 reflects a mixed performance, with higher upstream production offset by significant challenges in its oil trading and chemicals divisions. While the company anticipates a slight increase in production, the pressures from falling oil prices and seasonal factors in its marketing segment highlight the volatility of the energy market. Despite these hurdles, Shell’s continued focus on strategic investments and commitment to transforming the energy portfolio ensure that it remains well-positioned to adapt to the evolving market landscape.
SHEL's Zacks Rank & Key Picks
Currently, SHEL has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Investors interested in the energy sector might look at some better-ranked stocks like Marathon Petroleum MPC, Antero Midstream AM, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and Oceaneering International OII, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Marathon Petroleum is valued at $51.86 billion. MPC is a leading American petroleum refining, marketing and transportation company, specializing in the production of gasoline, diesel and other refined products. Marathon Petroleum operates a vast network of refineries and retail locations, serving customers across the United States and internationally.
Antero Midstream is valued at $8.19 billion. It is a leading midstream energy company that provides natural gas gathering, compression and transportation services. Antero Midstream primarily operates in the Appalachian Basin, focusing on connecting producers with downstream markets, and manages a portfolio of infrastructure assets, including pipelines and processing plants.
Oceaneering International is valued at $2.56 billion. The company is a global provider of engineered services and products to the offshore energy, aerospace and defense industries. OII specializes in underwater robotics, remotely operated vehicles and subsea engineering solutions for offshore oil and gas exploration and production.
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SHEL Expects Higher Output in Q4 Despite Lower Oil Trading Performance

Key Points
Chevron, the only U.S. oil company operating inside Venezuela, saw the biggest gains Monday.
ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, which have unresolved monetary claims against the Venezuelan government, also climbed.
All three stocks had given back most, if not all, of their gains by Tuesday's close.
The world was stunned over the weekend by the audacious and successful U.S. raid that ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. In a Saturday press conference discussing the operation, President Donald Trump brought up how it might impact U.S. oil companies:
"We're going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country."
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When the markets reopened on Monday, however, just three oil company stocks seemed to benefit. Here's why these three oil stocks surged after Venezuelan President Maduro's capture and whether they're likely to reap long-term gains.
Overall, the market yawned
The market as a whole seemed unfazed by the weekend's events. The S&P 500 opened 0.49% higher than its Friday close, and went on to rise another 0.14% during the trading session.
In fact, it was only the three largest U.S. oil companies -- integrated majors Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), and the largest independent oil exploration and production company (E&P), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- that experienced price surges. ExxonMobil's shares were up 2.5% from Friday's close and ConocoPhillips' were up 3.1%, but Chevron was the big winner, with shares finishing up 5.5%.
No other oil stocks seemed affected. Shares of French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) slipped 0.35% during the session, while shares of Anglo-Dutch oil major Shell (NYSE: SHEL) sank 0.48%. British oil major BP (NYSE: BP) was up by a meager 0.87% at the end of Monday's trading. Even smaller U.S. E&Ps didn't see any benefit. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), and Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) saw their share prices drop between 4% and 5% at the start of the session, and all three stocks finished down between 0.6% and 2.9% by the end of the day.
So why did only the stocks of Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips surge?
Billions in Venezuela
I'm not going to bore you with a lengthy history of Venezuela's oil industry. Briefly, Venezuela is home to one of the largest oil deposits in the world, estimated to be even larger than Saudi Arabia's. Oil is the country's largest export; it produces about 1 million barrels per day.
U.S. oil companies have had operations in Venezuela for over a century. However, in 2007, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez nationalized the country's oil industry, forcing U.S. companies to become minority stakeholders.
Chevron was the only U.S. oil company that went along with this arrangement. It still operates several Venezuelan oilfields, which collectively produce 20% to 25% of Venezuela's total oil output.
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, on the other hand, chose to exit the country instead, but they didn't go quietly. They sued the Venezuelan government in international arbitration courts, which ordered Venezuela to gradually pay ExxonMobil more than $1 billion and ConocoPhillips over $10 billion. When the U.S. put sanctions on Venezuelan oil in 2019, the Venezuelan government stopped making those payments.
Clearly, investors believed that Chevron -- as the only U.S. oil company active in Venezuela -- was the likeliest beneficiary of a more U.S.-friendly oil policy. The market also clearly thought there was a renewed chance that ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips might get additional compensation for their outstanding claims.
But is any of that likely to actually happen?
A cold shower
By Tuesday, things were looking a lot less straightforward for Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips. None of the companies publicly committed to new investments in Venezuela, and estimates began to come out suggesting that revitalizing the country's neglected oil industry would cost tens of billions of dollars over several years.
In response, ConocoPhillips' shares dropped 1.8%, ExxonMobil's tumbled 3.2%, and Monday's big winner, Chevron, was Tuesday's big loser, with shares sliding 4.2%, the stock's worst performance since April 2025.
As of Tuesday's close, the three stocks were roughly back where they'd closed on Friday: ConocoPhillips was up 0.8%, Chevron's was up 0.7%, and ExxonMobil's was down 1.1%. Ironically, all three were losing to the S&P 500, which was up 1.3% for the first two days of the week.
Ultimately, it's too soon to tell how the situation in Venezuela will play out for U.S. oil companies. It's possible that new offshore opportunities might open up for U.S. oil drillers, perhaps benefiting Chevron, which already operates an offshore rig in Venezuela, or ExxonMobil, which has extensive offshore operations in neighboring Guyana. It's possible that the U.S. will be able to convince the Venezuelan government to allocate money or oil to partially compensate ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips for their claims. Increased investment in Venezuela's oil industry could also be a boon for U.S. refiners, many of whose Gulf Coast refineries are set up to process heavy crude like Venezuela's.
On the other hand, it's also possible that anti-American sentiment in Venezuela or a backlash from the Venezuelan government convinces U.S. oil CEOs that it's better to avoid the country for the long term. Until we have more clarity, smart investors won't factor Venezuela into their investment theses for Chevron, ExxonMobil, or ConocoPhillips.
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John Bromels has positions in BP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool recommends BP, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, and Occidental Petroleum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Surged After Venezuelan President Maduro's Capture

Chevron Corporation CVX heads into 2026 against a difficult backdrop, with oil prices stuck below $60 and global supply risks skewed toward oversupply. Over the past year, the stock has lagged the S&P 500, the broader Oil/Energy sector, and even Big Oil peers such as ExxonMobil XOM and Shell SHEL. Although Chevron still holds clear strengths versus peers, the current setting clouds earnings visibility and limits valuation support, reducing near-term upside potential.
1-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Oil prices remain the dominant driver of Chevron’s returns, and recent developments tied to Venezuela’s potential production ramp-up add another layer of uncertainty. With valuation already stretched and earnings forecasts trending lower for 2025 and 2026, investors are weighing whether Chevron offers sufficient downside protection at the current levels.
Chevron’s Current Valuation Leaves Little Margin for Error
Chevron trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 23X, which stands above both the energy sector median and Chevron’s own five-year historical average near 12X. This premium valuation reflects confidence in Chevron’s asset quality, capital discipline, and long-term production profile, but it also compresses potential upside in a weak oil-price environment.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
By comparison, ExxonMobil and Shell trade at meaningfully lower valuation multiples, offering investors more margin for error should crude prices remain subdued. With oil prices already down sharply from the year-ago levels, Chevron’s elevated multiple leaves little room for negative surprises tied to pricing, costs or geopolitical risks.
If oil prices remain in the $55-$60 range, Chevron’s valuation may gradually move back toward historical norms. That normalization alone could limit share-price gains through 2026, even if the company continues to execute well and maintain solid operating performance.
Oil Prices as the Dominant Driver of Chevron’s Near-Term Returns
Chevron’s earnings remain highly sensitive to crude prices. In a sustained sub-$60 environment, that sensitivity becomes a meaningful headwind.
Production strength cannot fully offset pricing pressure. While Chevron benefits from stable output across its upstream portfolio, volume gains struggle to compensate when realized prices compress. This dynamic is especially relevant as global oil markets face oversupply concerns tied to OPEC+ output adjustments and the potential re-entry of Venezuelan barrels.
Compared with ExxonMobil and Shell, Chevron has less diversification from LNG and international refining, making its earnings more exposed to crude price volatility in the near term.
The Earnings Impact of Sustained Sub-$60 Oil
Consensus expectations already reflect mounting pressure. Chevron’s earnings are projected to have declined meaningfully in 2025, with further contraction expected in 2026 as lower realized prices weigh on upstream profitability. These downward revisions contrast with stronger relative earnings resilience at ExxonMobil and Shell, which benefit from broader downstream and LNG exposure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With oil prices below $60, Chevron’s earnings trajectory underscores why the stock’s premium valuation is increasingly difficult to justify. Without a clear rebound in crude prices, earnings growth remains challenged heading into 2026.
Strengths and Limits of Chevron’s Diversified Model
Chevron’s integrated business helps reduce swings when oil prices fall. A large share of its revenues comes from downstream operations, which often benefit when crude prices are weak. This counterbalance provides some stability and makes Chevron less vulnerable than companies that rely mainly on oil production.
That balance is a clear strength. Like peers such as ExxonMobil and Shell, Chevron is better positioned than pure upstream producers to manage periods of softer oil prices. Its sizable downstream operations continue to act as a stabilizer, helping smooth earnings and reduce volatility during market downturns.
However, diversification has its limits. Upstream profits remain the main driver of cash flow and valuation, so extended periods of low oil prices still weigh on performance. On top of that, the possibility of higher supply from Venezuela could keep prices under pressure for longer, which may limit upside even as Chevron’s broader business mix helps absorb some of the impact.
Conclusion: A Cautious Stance Heading Into 2026
Chevron’s risk-reward outlook looks more neutral than attractive. The stock is priced at levels that already reflect its stable operations and strong asset base, while earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 point to a decline rather than growth. In comparison, ExxonMobil and Shell trade at lower valuations and appear better positioned if oil prices stay under pressure.
Looking ahead to 2026, Chevron remains a high-quality integrated oil major with disciplined capital allocation and solid downstream diversification. Still, a relatively high valuation, falling earnings expectations, and crude prices trading in a $55-60 range cap near-term upside. Versus ExxonMobil and Shell, Chevron offers less valuation support in a weak oil environment. Taken together, these factors argue for a cautious view, supporting a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for CVX. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Chevron Stock Outlook: Can CVX Hold Up With Oil Under $60?

Shell plc SHEL is reportedly considering a return to Venezuela as political and policy changes raise the prospect of renewed foreign investment in the country’s energy sector. The British oil major has long targeted the gas-rich area between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, but U.S. sanctions and licensing delays have stalled progress for years. Recent intervention by U.S. President Donald Trump has revived expectations that projects once frozen could now move forward.
At the center of Shell’s interest is the Dragon gas field, located in Venezuelan waters. If developed, the project could generate around $500 million in annual revenues for up to 30 years, translating into a multi-billion-dollar opportunity over its lifetime.
The Scale of the Dragon Gas Opportunity
The Dragon field is estimated to hold around 120 billion cubic meters of gas — roughly three times the U.K.’s annual consumption. Even larger gas deposits sit in nearby fields, underlining the strategic importance of the region for international energy companies seeking long-term gas supply.
Despite its potential, development has been repeatedly delayed due to regulatory uncertainty and negotiations with U.S. authorities over sanctions waivers and licensing. With Washington now signaling support for renewed investment, Shell is expected to refocus its attention on Venezuela, though it has declined to comment publicly.
U.S. Policy Shift and the Role of American Majors
Following the removal of president Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has reframed its Venezuela strategy around energy development. Trump has publicly urged oil companies to invest billions of dollars to repair infrastructure and revive production, while emphasizing that U.S. firms should take the lead.
Chevron Corporation CVX currently stands out as the only global supermajor operating in Venezuela and remains the country’s largest foreign investor. Analysts suggest U.S. majors — Chevron in particular — are best positioned to secure early access. European companies like Shell and BP p.l.c. BP may be invited later through joint ventures, helping American firms spread political and financial risk.
BP’s Position and Broader Industry Caution
BP also has exposure to the region through its Manakin-Cocuina exploration and production license, awarded in 2024. However, U.S. approvals were revoked last year, prompting the company to lobby for reinstatement. Like Shell, BP has remained cautious in its public statements amid uncertainty over Venezuela’s political and regulatory future.
Across the industry, companies have been reluctant to commit capital openly. Chevron has emphasized compliance with all laws and a focus on employee safety and asset integrity, highlighting the sensitive operating environment.
Venezuela’s Vast Resources & Limited Output
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, exceeding 300 billion barrels by government estimates, yet ranks only 20th globally in production. Current output stands at about 900,000 barrels per day, with Chevron accounting for roughly one-third.
Much of Venezuela’s crude is heavy and viscous — highly valued by refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast, China and India for its strong margins. As U.S. shale production skews toward lighter oil, Venezuela’s heavy crude remains strategically attractive despite degraded infrastructure and operational challenges.
Market Headwinds & Investment Risks
Trump’s push to ramp up Venezuelan production comes at a time of ample global oil supply and prices below $60 a barrel. These conditions dampen appetite for large, high-risk investments, especially when lower-risk opportunities exist elsewhere. Industry veterans note that capital will flow toward regions offering clearer returns and regulatory certainty.
Compounding the risk is Venezuela’s long history of expropriation. Major oil companies, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, exited the country in 2007 after asset seizures and pursued lengthy arbitration cases. Legal uncertainty remains a major deterrent for potential investors.
Implications for OPEC and Global Oil Markets
An opening of Venezuela to Western energy companies could significantly disrupt OPEC’s influence. Increased Venezuelan output threatens to weaken the cartel’s already fragile control over supply and prices. Analysts warn that additional production — potentially 1-2 million barrels per day — could push global markets into surplus.
Oil prices fell drastically in 2025, the steepest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic, underscoring OPEC’s waning power. Although OPEC+ has agreed to pause supply increases in early 2026, renewed Venezuelan production could further pressure prices and reshape global oil flows.
Rebuilding an Industry From the Ground Up
Beyond politics and markets, Venezuela faces deep structural challenges. Years of mismanagement, corruption and state interference have hollowed out its energy sector, driving skilled workers abroad and leaving infrastructure in disrepair. Experts argue that revival will require sweeping reforms like debt restructuring, resolution of arbitration claims and access to multilateral financing.
Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry would demand sustained international support. For Shell, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), and its peers, Venezuela offers immense resource potential, but realizing it will depend on durable political guarantees, stable institutions and a credible path to long-term returns.
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