United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery company, provides transportation and delivery, distribution, contract logistics, ocean freight, airfreight, customs brokerage, and insurance services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of express letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services comprising guaranteed time-definite express options in Europe, Asia, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, and Latin America. The company also offers international air and ocean freight forwarding, post-sales, and mail and consulting services. In addition, it provides truckload and customs brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industries; fulfillment and transportation management services; and integrated supply chain and shipment insurance solutions. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Компания United Parcel Service, Inc. демонстрирует сильные финансовые показатели и высокие мультипликаторы, что указывает на ее устойчивую позицию на рынке. Однако, несмотря на то, что P/E и P/S ниже медианы отрасли, это может сигнализировать о недооцененности акций. ROE и ROA значительно выше медианных значений, что говорит о высокой эффективности менеджмента. Вместе с тем, долговая нагрузка компании (debt/equity) вызывает опасения, поскольку она значительно превышает отралевые показатели. Дивидендная доходность также снизилась, что может негативно сказаться на привлекательности акций для инвесторов. При этом компания показывает стабильный рост выручки и чистой прибыли, что является положительным фактором для оценки её будущих перспектив. Таким образом, в целом, несмотря на некоторые слабые стороны, фундаментальные показатели дают основание для умеренного оптимизма по отношению к компании.

United Parcel Service, Inc.

Key Points
Fuel surcharges can offset or exceed UPS's direct fuel cost increases.
Purchased transportation costs are a significant risk if fuel prices stay high.
Trade disruptions and inflation could reduce UPS's delivery volumes in 2026.
With all eyes on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) investors will be wondering how the conflict could affect the company in 2026. The answer is that there could be a significant impact, but perhaps not in the way that many investors think. Here are five things investors should keep in mind about UPS.
1. and 2. UPS, oil prices, and fuel surcharges
With oil prices spiking due to the conflict, it's natural that investors might be concerned about UPS' fuel costs. In reality, UPS does have exposure to fuel costs, but perhaps not in the way most investors think. First, fuel costs of $4.3 billion in 2025 accounted for only 5.3% of its total operating expenses of $80.8 billion.
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Second, UPS applies fuel surcharges weekly based on jet, kerosene, and diesel fuel prices. Moreover, in recent years, the fuel surcharge has more than offset fuel costs. In other words, UPS fuel surcharges aren't just reflecting fuel cost changes; they've become a net contributor to profit margins.
If that continues in the current environment, then higher fuel prices, all things being equal, could be a net benefit to UPS.
UPS Metric
2024
2025
Fuel cost change
($409 million)
($50 million)
Fuel surcharge change*
($270 million)
$282 million
Difference
$139 million
$332 million
3. All things are not being equal
While direct fuel costs aren't a major problem, UPS is likely to suffer in the current environment. The company purchases transportation from third-party carriers, which accounted for 13.1% of its costs in 2025. Given a protracted increase in fuel costs, these carriers will likely raise their surcharges, leading to a corresponding increase in purchased transportation costs.
4. Rerouting traffic will also increase costs
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and other key Middle Eastern transport corridors, including the Jebel Ali port in Dubai, will likely increase UPS's costs, primarily through higher purchased transportation expenses.
5. UPS could see demand destruction
Global trade conflicts, specifically those that cause inflation, are not good news for package delivery companies. Of particular note, UPS's small- and medium-size-business customers are already experiencing the impacts of tariffs on their businesses as they adjust product sourcing.
Moreover, many of them will have reduced previously acquired inventory through 2025, and the last thing they need right now is more trade disruptions amid inflation. Consequently, UPS could see some impact on delivery volume in the quarter.
UPS in 2026
The conflict is highly likely to adversely affect UPS stock in 2026, but it's hard to tell how lasting the impact will be. On a positive note, UPS could likely handle relatively high oil prices if trade lanes reopen and inflationary pressures abate, but a combination of all three difficulties will hurt its volume and profitability, making it a stock exposed to a protracted conflict.
Should you buy stock in United Parcel Service right now?
Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $514,000!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,105,029!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 930% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 187% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 14, 2026.
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

5 Things Every UPS Investor Needs to Know

Key Points
FedEx's market cap has exceeded UPS's for the first time.
UPS has been working on a material business overhaul that is making it smaller.
Judging FedEx and UPS solely by market cap won't tell you which stock to buy.
Size can be important for many businesses because economies of scale are important in some industries. That is true in the parcel delivery business, where FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) are fierce rivals. It's notable that FedEx's market cap just surpassed UPS's, but that alone isn't enough to distinguish between these two industry leaders. Here's a closer look at which of these two stocks is the smarter buy in 2026.
FedEx and UPS are both industry giants
FedEx's market cap is around $83 billion. UPS' market cap is also around $83 billion. What's really notable here is that UPS' market cap has declined by 40% over the past five years while FedEx's market cap has increased by 15%. The divergence between these two industrial stocks is the real story, as Wall Street clearly believes that UPS isn't as valuable a business as it once was.
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There's some truth in that statement, given that the company has undertaken a material business overhaul. The express goal is to become a smaller, leaner, and more nimble business. The turnaround effort has involved divesting older delivery assets, investing in new facilities and technology, and shedding employees. The company even decided to shift away from customers who ship large volumes but only offer UPS low profits on that business. FedEx has been making changes to its business, as well, but they haven't been nearly as dramatic.
Is FedEx or UPS the better buy?
UPS believes 2026 will be an inflection point in its turnaround effort, with the second half of the year stronger than the first. In 2025, there were early signs of progress as the company's revenue per piece rose in the U.S. market despite declining total revenues. That's basically what the company has been aiming for, as it refocuses on its most profitable customers and sheds assets that are less productive. If the company's financial performance continues to improve, Wall Street may be willing to afford it a higher valuation.
That brings up the discussion of valuation. FedEx currently has a price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x compared to a five-year average of 0.67x. Its price-to-earnings ratio is nearly 20x versus a five-year average of 15x. And its price-to-book ratio is 3x compared to a five-year average of 2.3x. It looks a bit expensive, historically speaking.
UPS, by comparison, looks historically cheap. Its P/S ratio is 0.97x compared to a five-year average of 1.35x. Its P/E ratio is 15x compared to a longer-term average of 17x. And its P/B ratio is 5.2x compared to a five-year average of 7.8x. While it makes sense that UPS appears relatively cheap, given the turnaround situation, that doesn't change the fact that value investors will likely find the stock more appealing than FedEx right now.
FedEx probably has more growth appeal
That said, for growth-oriented investors, buying what amounts to a turnaround stock probably doesn't make much sense. So, for some investors, FedEx is probably a more appropriate pick in 2026. Notably, FedEx just upped the low end of its guidance for fiscal 2026. That hints that the business is performing better than management had originally expected, which is clearly a good sign.
Given the massive, complex logistics networks FedEx and UPS have built, competition from outsiders isn't likely to be a major headwind. And continued growth in e-commerce should support both companies in the years ahead. Indeed, few companies can marshal the resources of an Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) to build out their own private parcel delivery services. So, in the end, both FedEx and UPS are interesting in 2026, but for different types of investors.
Should you buy stock in United Parcel Service right now?
Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $514,000!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,105,029!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 930% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 187% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 14, 2026.
Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool recommends FedEx. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

FedEx Just Took UPS's Spot as the Biggest U.S. Parcel Firm. Which Stock is a Smarter Buy in 2026?

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (Symbol: SCHD) where we have detected an approximate $359.1 million dollar inflow -- that's a 0.4% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 2,705,650,000 to 2,717,300,000). Among the largest underlying components of SCHD, in trading today Amgen Inc (Symbol: AMGN) is up about 0.3%, United Parcel Service Inc (Symbol: UPS) is off about 0.4%, and Valero Energy Corp (Symbol: VLO) is lower by about 0.6%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the SCHD Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of SCHD, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, SCHD's low point in its 52 week range is $23.87 per share, with $31.95 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $30.88. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Also see:
Best High Dividend Stocks
Institutional Holders of COA
Funds Holding DFCF
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

SCHD, AMGN, UPS, VLO: Large Inflows Detected at ETF

United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $97.89 in the latest trading session, marking a -2.89% move from the prior day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 1.52% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 1.56%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.78%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the package delivery service had lost 16% lagged the Transportation sector's loss of 7.21% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.25%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of United Parcel Service in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.12, showcasing a 24.83% downward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $21.12 billion, indicating a 1.96% decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $7.09 per share and revenue of $89.11 billion, indicating changes of -0.98% and +0.5%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for United Parcel Service. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.
Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 0.05% decrease. Currently, United Parcel Service is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, United Parcel Service is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 14.23. This indicates a discount in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 18.27.
It's also important to note that UPS currently trades at a PEG ratio of 1.59. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. As of the close of trade yesterday, the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry held an average PEG ratio of 1.71.
The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry is part of the Transportation sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 86, this industry ranks in the top 36% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

United Parcel Service (UPS) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights

Key Points
United Parcel Service has been dramatically overhauling its business.
The stock is still down 55% from its 2022 highs.
Shares of United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) have recently pulled back after a rally in late 2025. It remains below its 2022 highs by a whopping 55%. And yet, the company is making material progress in its efforts to become a leaner and more profitable business. Here's why you might want to buy the dip.
What does UPS do?
United Parcel Service delivers packages. It is a highly capital-intensive business, and the industry has changed dramatically in recent years. UPS has been making big changes to adjust to the times, as it looks to slim down and focus on its most profitable business. That process has required investing in technology and infrastructure while simultaneously reducing staff and selling outdated or unneeded infrastructure. There are big upfront costs involved with these changes.
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UPS has also been purposefully adjusting its customer relationships. On the positive side, it has been leaning into sectors like healthcare, which have high margins. On the negative side, the company has been trimming its business with high-volume customers that provide it with only low-margin business. The biggest change was the company's pre-emptive move to reduce the number of packages it handles for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). These changes support margins but reduce the company's top line.
You have to dig below the surface to see the positives at UPS
As UPS puts all the pieces together for a business turnaround, the big picture is actually kind of ugly. Higher costs and lower revenue aren't a great story. Not surprisingly, the company's financial statements haven't been pleasant reading. And yet, there are green shoots starting to appear.
For example, the revenue per piece in the United States has been growing (up 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025) even as the revenue in the U.S. segment has been falling (down 3.2%). That is exactly what you would expect to see given the company's goals and the steps it has taken and it is the continuation of what amounts to a positive trend.
The inflection point is just ahead, according to UPS
The company hasn't yet turned the corner, but management believes that will happen in the second half of 2026. That means that right now could be a good time to buy the stock, ahead of the point where the company's business starts to show more outward signs of a return to growth. The one caveat is the 6.4% dividend yield. The company is indicating the dividend is safe in 2026, but the payout ratio is hovering around 100%. Dividend investors might want to tread with caution.
Should you buy stock in United Parcel Service right now?
Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $522,791!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,132,678!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 952% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 191% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 11, 2026.
Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Time to Buy the Dip on United Parcel Service Stock?

Key Points
The surge in oil prices will be a new hurdle for UPS to manage.
UPS expects to see revenue growth in 2026.
Margins will be a focus now, though.
Oil prices are soaring, knocking down transportation stocks today. UPS (NYSE: UPS) shares dropped 4.9% as of 12:05 p.m. ET, potentially giving investors an opportunity. This comes just days after one Wall Street firm raised its price target on UPS, citing its valuable, capital-intensive infrastructure.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
The HALO effect
Last week, Jefferies highlighted UPS as a key HALO trade. That term, reportedly coined by financial advisor Josh Brown, stands for "heavy asset, low obsolescence." It's meant to represent the market rotation out of sectors disrupted by artificial intelligence (AI), including software makers. Jefferies also raised its price target from $130 to $135 per share, according to reports. The new price target would represent 38% upside for UPS stock.
Yet the significant tangible assets, physical infrastructure, and lasting economic importance of companies like UPS are now in focus for another reason. The sharp surge in oil prices resulting from the war with Iran is hitting transportation stocks hard today.
Oil spiked well above $100 per barrel this morning. It has since pared some of those gains, but plenty of uncertainty remains about oil production and the effects of the Middle East conflict. Investors are considering just how high oil prices can go.
Long-term investors, though, might view today's drop in UPS stock as an opportunity. Oil prices rise and fall, and the latest shock should be temporary. UPS predicts revenue will return to growth in 2026 after declining nearly 3% in 2025. Today's 5% drop could soon be a distant memory if investors jump back into the stocks of industrial companies like UPS.
Should you buy stock in United Parcel Service right now?
Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $534,008!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,090,073!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 949% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 190% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 9, 2026.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Is Today's Drop in UPS Stock a Buying Opportunity?

Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel, in trading on Thursday, shares of United Parcel Service Inc (Symbol: UPS) were yielding above the 6% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $6.56), with the stock changing hands as low as $103.66 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market's total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) back on 12/31/1999 — you would have paid $146.88 per share. Fast forward to 12/31/2012 and each share was worth $142.41 on that date, a decrease of $4.67/share over all those years. But now consider that you collected a whopping $25.98 per share in dividends over the same period, for a positive total return of 23.36%. Even with dividends reinvested, that only amounts to an average annual total return of about 1.6%; so by comparison collecting a yield above 6% would appear considerably attractive if that yield is sustainable. United Parcel Service Inc (Symbol: UPS) is an S&P 500 company, giving it special status as one of the large-cap companies making up the S&P 500 Index.
In general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of United Parcel Service Inc, looking at the history chart for UPS below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 6% annual yield.
Also see:
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ETFs Holding ENTA
EGY Split History
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

United Parcel Service (UPS) Shares Cross 6% Yield Mark

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Alaska Air Group, Inc. (Symbol: ALK), where a total volume of 20,296 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 2.0 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 70.4% of ALK's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.9 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $42.50 strike put option expiring April 17, 2026, with 8,568 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 856,800 underlying shares of ALK. Below is a chart showing ALK's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $42.50 strike highlighted in orange:
Bioventus Inc (Symbol: BVS) saw options trading volume of 1,873 contracts, representing approximately 187,300 underlying shares or approximately 63.8% of BVS's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 293,505 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $7.50 strike call option expiring March 20, 2026, with 872 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 87,200 underlying shares of BVS. Below is a chart showing BVS's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $7.50 strike highlighted in orange:
And United Parcel Service Inc (Symbol: UPS) saw options trading volume of 37,991 contracts, representing approximately 3.8 million underlying shares or approximately 63% of UPS's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 6.0 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $112 strike call option expiring March 20, 2026, with 3,218 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 321,800 underlying shares of UPS. Below is a chart showing UPS's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $112 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for ALK options, BVS options, or UPS options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
Mega Mergers
ALTO Past Earnings
ABEV Average Annual Return
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Thursday Option Activity: ALK, BVS, UPS

Key Points
Raymond James analyst Patrick Tyler Brown doubled down on his UPS buy rating today.
UPS may not grow much in H1, says the analyst, but by H2 growth should resume.
March is turning out to be a miserable month to own UPS (NYSE: UPS) stock.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Shares of the package transportation giant declined each trading day so far this month -- and even longer. Stretching back into February, UPS is down five trading days in a row, including Thursday's 6.2% drop through 2:40 p.m. ET.
But don't blame Raymond James. This Wall Street analyst is doing its best to buck up UPS's stock price.
RJ hearts UPS
Reiterating his $127 price target on UPS today, reports StreetInsider.com, Raymond James analyst Patrick Tyler Brown argues UPS is a "buy" despite warning investors it will experience zero revenue growth -- and worse profit margins than feared -- in H1.
Growth may not happen in H1, says Brown. But H2 should see "low-single-digit y/y growth" and substantially higher operating margins of 11.5% as the company recovers from its "deliberate exit from low-value, retailer-controlled last-mile volume" work for customers such as Amazon.com, and replaces this revenue with more profitable work. At the same time, UPS is reconfiguring its network to, among other things, favor use of automated facilities that offer "27% better productivity vs. non-automated."
Ultimately, the analyst sees UPS emerging from this realignment, focusing its business on providing "premium service" and enjoying "better customer economics," leading to renewed sales growth and better profits.
Is UPS stock a buy?
And Raymond James may be right about that. With its stock price down 8% over the past year, UPS stock isn't much to look at right now. But the shares sell for under 17 times earnings, pay a dividend yield of nearly 6%, and are expected to grow earnings at 9% over the next five years.
With numbers this cheap, it won't take much improvement to turn around UPS -- and turn UPS stock into a buy.
Should you buy stock in United Parcel Service right now?
Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,122,072!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 959% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 193% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 5, 2026.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why Does UPS Stock Keep Going Down?

United Parcel Service UPS will move forward with providing $150,000 buyout offers to certain drivers after a federal judge denied an attempt by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to halt its workforce reduction initiative. The union contended that the buyouts breached the existing contract, but the judge ruled that the claims of harm were far from being substantiated.
As part of the restructuring and cost-cutting efforts, UPS announced on the fourth-quarter 2025 conference call last month that it would eliminate up to 30,000 operational jobs and close multiple facilities by 2026. This move aims to reduce reliance on Amazon. com AMZN deliveries and pivot toward more profitable business endeavors.
We remind investors that in 2025, UPS’ management reached an agreement in principle with Amazon to cut its shipment volume by more than 50% by June 2026. CEO Carol Tomé stated that Amazon was not UPS’ most profitable customer. The planned volume reduction is prompting UPS to adjust and right-size its network accordingly.
To this end, UPS welcomed the ruling, which came after the union sued it for breach of the National contract, and intends to share plans to provide additional details to the drivers regarding the buyout packages in the coming days.
UPS plans to shrink its driver workforce in response to an 8.6% decline in package volumes last year, a decline it anticipates will persist into 2026 due to moving away from high-volume, low-margin Amazon shipments.
With the court ruling in favor of UPS on the issue, it remains to be seen how the union reacts to the same. We expect investors to remain focused on further updates on this burning issue.
UPS’ competitor FedEx FDX is also implementing cost-cutting measures to address the soft demand environment and improve operations through its Network 2.0 initiative. A few years back, FedEx introduced DRIVE, a broad program aimed at enhancing long-term profitability.
DRIVE generated $1.8 billion in permanent savings in fiscal 2024 and delivered an additional $2.2 billion in cost savings in fiscal 2025. These efforts include lowering flight frequencies, parking aircraft and reducing headcount. For fiscal 2026, FedEx’s management expects to achieve $1 billion in transformation-related savings through initiatives such as DRIVE and Network 2.0.
UPS’ Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Driven by its cost-cutting efforts, shares of UPS have gained in excess of 31% in six months. However, the company has underperformed its industry in the same timeframe.
6-Month Price Comparison
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From a valuation standpoint, UPS trades at a discount to industrial levels on the basis of the 12-month forward price-to-sales ratio.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter, second quarter, full-year 2026 and 2027 has been revised downwards in the past 60 days.
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UPS’ Zacks Rank
UPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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