Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals. The company's assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Freeport-McMoRan демонстрирует смешанную фундаментальную картину. С одной стороны, компания имеет высокие мультипликаторы, такие как P/E (42.36), что указывает на возможную переоцененность по сравнению со средней по отрасли. Однако, несмотря на высокие показатели, наблюдается положительная динамика по выручке и чистой прибыли, а также относительно низкое соотношение долга к капиталу (0.29), что является положительным знаком. Дивидендная доходность снижается, что может вызвать опасения у инвесторов. Показатели рентабельности, такие как ROE и ROA, ниже медианных значений по отрасли, что также указывает на некоторые проблемы с эффективностью. В то же время уровень операционной маржи (26.73) остается высоким, что говорит о способности компании генерировать прибыль. Общая картина указывает на то, что, хотя Freeport-McMoRan имеет сильные позиции в некоторых областях, высокая оценка по мультипликаторам и низкие показатели рентабельности могут вызвать необходимость пересмотра целевой цены в сторону снижения.

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.62%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.60%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -0.66%.
Stocks gave up an early advance on Friday and retreated, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials falling to 3.5-month lows. Stocks fell after crude oil prices recovered from early losses and rallied more than +3%, as the war in Iran shows no signs of abating. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that the US is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East as Iran steps up attacks on the Strait of Hormuz.
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Stocks initially moved higher on Friday when WTI crude oil gave up overnight gains and fell more than -2% after the US granted a temporary waiver allowing buyers to take Russian oil cargoes already at sea. The US Treasury granted a month-long waiver to import Russian oil loaded before Thursday, covering Russian crude oil and fuel on about 30 tankers carrying at least 19 million barrels. Crude was also briefly pressured after the Financial Times reported that France and Italy had opened talks with Iran to negotiate a deal to guarantee the safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude prices also found support on Friday after US officials said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, an effort that could further complicate US efforts to restart shipping in the waterway. Despite the US destroying most large ships in the Iranian navy used to lay mines, Iran began using smaller boats for the operation on Thursday, according to a US official briefed on the intelligence. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.
The latest rhetoric from President Trump and Iranian leader Khamenei suggests there will be no immediate easing in the war that has disrupted energy shipments in the Middle East and spurred concerns about rising inflation. Global bond yields have soared this week on inflation fears, with the German 10-year bund yield rising to a 2.25-year high of 2.99% on Friday and the 10-year T--note yield climbing to a 1.25-month high at 4.29%.
Crude oil prices remain underpinned despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA on Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.
Friday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks. Jan personal spending, Jan JOLTS job openings, and the University of Michigan US Mar consumer sentiment index all rose more than expected. However, Jan capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, were weaker than expected. Also, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and the Jan core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose by the most in 1.75 years.
US Jan personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Jan personal income rose +0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.
The US Jan core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.1% y/y, right on expectations and the highest in 1.75 years.
US Jan capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.
US Q4 GDP was revised downward to +0.7% (q/q annualized) from the previously reported +1.4% as Q4 personal consumption was revised lower to +2.0% from the previously reported +2.4%.
The University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell -1.1 to 55.5, stronger than the 54.8 expected.
The University of Michigan's US Mar 1-year inflation expectations were unchanged from Feb at 3.4%, below expectations of a rise to 3.7%. The Mar 5-10 year inflation expectations unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.3% in Feb, weaker than expectations of an increase to 3.4%.
US Jan JOLTS job openings rose +396,000 to 6.946 million, stronger than expectations of 6.750 million.
Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 98% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 495 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets settled lower on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.56%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.82%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.16%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Friday closed unchanged. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.8 bp to 4.279%. June T-notes fell to a 1.25-month low on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 5-week high of 4.289%. T-notes gave up an early advance on Friday after crude oil prices jumped more than +3%, which fueled inflation fears. Also, mixed US economic news limited gains in T-notes after Jan JOLTS job openings, and the University of Michigan Mar consumer sentiment index rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy. Conversely, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and Jan capital goods new orders rose less than expected, supportive factors for T-notes. Also, Friday’s stock weakness sparked some safe-haven demand for T-notes.
European government bond yields moved higher on Friday. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2.25-year high of 2.992% and finished up +2.6 bp to 2.983%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 6.25-month high of 4.825% and finished up +4.9 bp to 4.823%.
UK Jan GDP was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
UK Jan manufacturing production rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -3% to lead the Magnificent Seven technology stocks lower after the New York Times reported that the company’s latest AI model has underperformed expectations and will be delayed. Also, Apple (AAPL) closed down more than -2%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -1%. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) closed down -0.96%. Amazon.com (AMZN) closed down -0.89% and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down -0.42%.
Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies moved higher on Friday, a supportive factor for the broader market. Sandisk (SNDK) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Western Digital (WDC) closed up more than +4%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Intel (INTC) closed up more than +1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks moved higher on Friday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose more than +1% to a 1-week high. Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +8%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up more than +6%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +1%.
Mining stocks sold off on Friday as copper prices fell more than -2%, gold prices fell more than -1%, and silver prices dropped more than -4%. Anglogold Ashanti Ltd (AU) closed down more than -9%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) closed down more than -6%. Also, Southern Copper (SCCO) closed down more than -5%, and Newmont Mining (NEM), Hecla Mining (HL), Barrick Mining (B), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -4%.
Fertilizer stocks retreated on Friday, giving back some of this week’s sharp gains. Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Mosaic (MOS) closed down more than -6%, and CF Industries Holdings (CF) closed down more than -4%.
EverCommerce (EVCM) closed down more than -15% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $145.5 million to $148.5 million, well below the consensus of $151 million.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) closed down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after it forecast full-year comparable sales will increase 2.5% to 3.5%, below the consensus of 3.5%.
Adobe (ADBE) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after CEO Narayen said he will resign and remain in his post until a successor has been appointed.
Insulet (PODD) closed down more than -6% after it issued a voluntary recall of some Omnipod 5 Pods due to a manufacturing issue that led to 18 reports of serious adverse events.
ServiceTitan (TTAN) closed down more than -5% after reporting a Q4 EPS loss of -44 cents, wider than the consensus of -41 cents.
Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) closed up more than +9% after an SEC filing showed Chairman Morits purchased 3.47 million shares through an associated entity between March 3 and March 11.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) closed up more than +2% after it expects revenue growth of 16% in Q1 and said the company’s “diversified financial model continues to deliver.”
Carvana (CVNA) closed up more than +2% after its board approved a 5-for-1 split of its common stock.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) closed up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the stock to $120 from $100.
Earnings Reports(3/16/2026)
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) and Science Applications International (SAIC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Iran War Drags Stocks Lower

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Global X Copper Miners ETF (Symbol: COPX) where we have detected an approximate $326.6 million dollar inflow -- that's a 4.5% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 87,899,374 to 91,879,374). Among the largest underlying components of COPX, in trading today Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (Symbol: FCX) is up about 1.8%, Hudbay Minerals Inc (Symbol: HBM) is up about 1.5%, and Teck Resources Ltd (Symbol: TECK) is up by about 4.2%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the COPX Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of COPX, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, COPX's low point in its 52 week range is $30.77 per share, with $99.99 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $83.44. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
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Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Also see:
FSS Split History
WFHY YTD Return
Top Ten Hedge Funds Holding MAT
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

COPX, FCX, HBM, TECK: Large Inflows Detected at ETF

Among the underlying components of the S&P 500 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Oracle Corp (Symbol: ORCL), where a total of 159,700 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 16.0 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 60.8% of ORCL's average daily trading volume over the past month of 26.3 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $170 strike call option expiring March 13, 2026, with 8,546 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 854,600 underlying shares of ORCL. Below is a chart showing ORCL's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $170 strike highlighted in orange:
Home Depot Inc (Symbol: HD) saw options trading volume of 22,843 contracts, representing approximately 2.3 million underlying shares or approximately 56.9% of HD's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 4.0 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $340 strike put option expiring March 20, 2026, with 3,086 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 308,600 underlying shares of HD. Below is a chart showing HD's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $340 strike highlighted in orange:
And Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (Symbol: FCX) saw options trading volume of 81,030 contracts, representing approximately 8.1 million underlying shares or approximately 45.7% of FCX's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 17.7 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $65 strike call option expiring March 20, 2026, with 6,771 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 677,100 underlying shares of FCX. Below is a chart showing FCX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $65 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for ORCL options, HD options, or FCX options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
PHM Dividend History
FOXF Historical Stock Prices
Kenvue RSI
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Monday Option Activity: ORCL, HD, FCX

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s FCX shares have shot up 39% in the past three months, thanks to the uptick in copper prices, driven by concerns over tighter global supply, tariff-related uncertainties and strong demand.
Freeport has underperformed the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 46.8% but topped the S&P 500’s increase of 0.1% over the same period. Its peers, Southern Copper Corporation SCCO and BHP Group Limited BHP, have rallied 36.5% and 30%, respectively.
Freeport’s 3-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX has been trading above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-day SMA since late November 2025. Following a golden crossover on July 8, 2025, the 50-day SMA is higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
FCX Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at FCX’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Freeport’s Expansion Actions to Power Future Output
Freeport continues to leverage its portfolio of high-quality copper assets, emphasizing disciplined execution and organic growth initiatives to strengthen its production profile. At its Cerro Verde operation in Peru, a large-scale concentrator expansion provided incremental annual production of around 600 million pounds of copper and 15 million pounds of molybdenum. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.
In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.
PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) substantially completed the construction of the new greenfield smelter in Eastern Java during 2024, with the start-up of operations having commenced in the second quarter of 2025. The first production of copper anode was achieved in July 2025. PT-FI is also developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs. Gold production also started at the new precious metals refinery in late 2024.
FCX’s Solid Balance Sheet & Capital Discipline Aid Growth
FCX has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns. It generated solid operating cash flows of around $5.6 billion in 2025, including $693 million in the fourth quarter. Freeport ended 2025 with strong liquidity, including roughly $3.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.
At the end of 2025, Freeport had a net debt of $2.3 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to its shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027. Its long-term debt-to-capitalization is around 22.5% compared with 37.8% for Southern Copper and 30.7% for BHP Group.
FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.5% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 17% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
Favorable Copper Prices Augur Well for Freeport
Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, were volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. Prices, for the most part, remained above $5 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data-center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption.
Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand are supporting the red metal. Supply risks have also increased amid worries over lower output and potential disruptions at major global mining operations. Prices of the red metal are currently hovering near $6 per pound.
Freeport’s average realized copper price climbed around 28% year over year to $5.33 per pound in the fourth quarter. Favorable prices are expected to continue to support its performance.
Higher Unit Costs Weigh on FCX’s Margins
Freeport faces headwinds from higher costs. FCX saw a sharp increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $2.22 from $1.40 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 59% spike. It also climbed 34% year over year. The increase was due to a decline in copper sales volumes.
Freeport's outlook for the first quarter of 2026 suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.60 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.75. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to adversely impact costs in the quarter. Higher costs are expected to weigh on the company's margins.
Lower Expected Volumes Dampen FCX’s Prospects
Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 29% year over year in the fourth quarter to 709 million pounds, and fell from 977 million pounds in the prior quarter. The company sold 80,000 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter, down around 77% year over year. The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025, which led to the suspension of operations.
Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, indicating a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline. The company has issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line in the first quarter. FCX remains on track for a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine beginning in second-quarter 2026.
FCX’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Freeport’s earnings estimates have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has been revised up over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at FCX’s Valuation
FCX is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 24.87X, a 4.6% discount to the industry average of 26.06X. The FCX stock is trading at a discount to Southern Copper and at a premium to BHP Group.
FCX’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, SCCO and BHP
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto FCX Shares
Freeport is poised to gain from advancements in its expansion initiatives, which are expected to enhance production capacity. A strong balance sheet provides flexibility to fund growth projects while maintaining shareholder returns. Upward revisions in earnings estimates and favorable copper prices add to the positives. However, weaker sales volume projections and anticipated increases in unit costs warrant a measured approach. Investors who already hold this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock may find it prudent to maintain their positions.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan's Shares Pop 39% in 3 Months: How to Play the Stock?

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed down -0.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.83%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.09%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.94%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -1.11%.
Stock indexes settled lower on Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling to a 3.25-month low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping to a 2.75-month low, and the Nasdaq 100 sliding to a 3.5-month low.
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Global stock markets retreated, and crude oil prices and bond yields rose on Tuesday as the war in Iran entered its fourth day with no sign of de-escalation, bolstering fears of a prolonged disruption to energy markets and a surge in inflation.
However, crude oil prices fell back from their best levels on Tuesday, and stocks recovered from their worst levels, after President Trump said he ordered the US Development Finance Corporation "to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf." He also said, "If necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible."
WTI crude oil (CLJ26) rose more than +4% to an 8.5-month high after an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander told state TV that “we will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along Iran's coast and handles a fifth of the world's oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, to shut down oil production at its largest oil fields in Rumalia as storage tanks fill up. Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18/bbl, corresponding to its estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, falling debris from an intercepted Iranian drone caused a major fire at the United Arab Emirates' major oil-trading hub, Fujairah, one of the largest oil storage centers in the Middle East. European natural gas prices rose more than +22% on Tuesday to a 3-year high after Qatar shut its Ras Laffan plant, the world's largest natural gas export facility, after it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply.
President Trump said Monday that combat operations against Iran could last for weeks until all objectives were completed. President Trump has called for Iran’s leaders to capitulate, but Iran’s security chief said that it has no intention of negotiating with the US.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, "Inflation has been above the Fed's objective for nearly five years now, so I don't think we have room to be complacent."
NY Fed President John Williams said additional Fed interest rate cuts will be warranted if inflation slows further once most of the impact of tariffs has passed.
This week's market focus will be on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic news. On Wednesday, the Feb ADP employment change is expected to increase by +50,000. Also, the Feb ISM services index is expected to slip by -0.3 to 53.5. In addition, the Fed releases its Beige Book. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 215,000. Also, Q4 nonfarm productivity is expected to be up +1.8%, and Q4 unit labor costs are expected to be up +2.0%. On Friday, Feb nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +60,000, and the Feb unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Also, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. In addition, Feb retail sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m and Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to remain unchanged m/m.
Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 73% of the 481 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets settled sharply lower on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-month low and closed down -3.59%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 10.5-year high and closed down -1.43%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 3-week low and closed down -3.06%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Tuesday closed down by -2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.9 bp to 4.054%. June T-notes tumbled to a 2-week low on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 2-week high of 4.115%. Soaring energy prices on Tuesday sparked inflation concerns and weighed on T-note prices, with WTI crude oil up more than +4% to an 8.5-month high. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.318% on Tuesday.
T-notes recovered from their worst levels after the stock sell-off prompted some safe-haven buying of government debt. Also, crude prices fell from early highs after President Trump said the US would provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
European government bond yields moved higher on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2.5-week high of 2.814% and finished up +4.0 bp to 2.752%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 3-week high of 4.553% and finished up +9.7 bp to 4.471%.
The Eurozone Feb CPI rose +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y. Feb core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.2% y/y.
Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks sold off on Tuesday, weighing on the broader market. Sandisk (SNDK) closed down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Western Digital (WDC) closed down more than -7%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -6%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -5%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -4%. Finally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -3%.
Mining stocks plunged on Tuesday as gold prices fell more than -3% and silver prices sank more than -6%. Hecla Mining (HL) closed down more than -11%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) closed down more than -10%. Also, Barrick Mining (B) closed down more than -8%, Newmont Corp (NEM) closed down more than -7%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -3%
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slid on Tuesday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell more than -1%. MARA Holdings (MARA) closed down more than -8%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed down more than -7%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed down more than -5%, Strategy (MSTR) closed down more than -3%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed down more than -1%.
Software stocks rallied on Tuesday to limit losses in the broader market. Workday (WDAY) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Thomson Reuters (TRI) closed up more than +5%, and Adobe Systems (ADBE) closed up more than -4%. In addition, ServiceNow (NOW) and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +3%, and International Business Machines (IBM) closed up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Finally, Autodesk (ADSK) closed up more than +2%, and Salesforce (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed up more than +1%.
MongoDB (MDB) closed down more than -22% after forecasting 2027 revenue of $2.86 billion to $2.90 billion, below the consensus of $2.90 billion.
Sea Lt. (SE) closed down more than -16% after reporting Q4 net income of$410.9 million, weaker than the consensus of $442 million.
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) closed down more than -14% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $425 million to 435 million, the midpoint below the consensus of $430.5 million.
Surgery Partners (SGRY) closed down more than -12% after forecasting full-year revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, well below the consensus of $3.56 billion.
ON Holding AG (ONON) closed down more than -6% after forecasting full-year net sales at constant currencies up +23%, below the consensus of +25.8%.
Pinterest (PINS) closed up more than +9% after authorizing a new $3.5 billion share repurchase program and announcing a $1 billion strategic investment from Elliot Investment Management.
Best Buy (BBY) closed up more than +7% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.61, stronger than the consensus of $2.46.
Target (TGT) closed up more than +6% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $7.50 to $8.50, the midpoint above the consensus of $7.61.
Akami Technologies (AKAM) closed up more than +4% after Streaming Media Blog reported that the company has notified customers of upcoming interim surcharges and pricing adjustments for contract renewals.
Earnings Reports(3/4/2026)
Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B), Okta Inc (OKTA), Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Settle Lower on Iran War Anxiety

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -2.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -2.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -2.37%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -2.05%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -2.21%.
Stock indexes are plunging today, with the S&P 500 falling to a 3.25-month low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping to a 2.75-month low, and the Nasdaq 100 sliding to a 3.5-month low.
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Global stock markets are plummeting, and crude oil prices and bond yields are soaring as the war in Iran enters its fourth day with no sign of de-escalation, bolstering fears of a lengthy disruption to energy markets and a surge in inflation.
WTI crude oil (CLJ26) is up more than +8% at an 8.5-month high after an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander told state TV that “we will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along Iran's coast and handles a fifth of the world's oil. Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18/bbl, corresponding to its estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, falling debris from an intercepted Iranian drone caused a major fire at the United Arab Emirates' major oil-trading hub, Fujairah, one of the largest oil storage centers in the Middle East. European natural gas prices are up +22% today at a 3-year high after Qatar shut its Ras Laffan plant, the world's largest natural gas export facility, after it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply.
President Trump said Monday that combat operations against Iran could last for weeks until all objectives were completed. President Trump has called for Iran’s leaders to capitulate, but Iran’s security chief said that it has no intention of negotiating with the US.
Global bond yields are soaring today, weighing on stocks amid the potentially inflationary impact of surging energy prices. The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 2.5-week high of 2.814%, the 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 3-week high of 4.553%, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-week high of 4.12%.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, "Inflation has been above the Fed's objective for nearly five years now, so I don't think we have room to be complacent."
NY Fed President John Williams said additional Fed interest rate cuts will be warranted if inflation slows further once most of the impact of tariffs has passed.
This week's market focus will be on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic news. On Wednesday, the Feb ADP employment change is expected to increase by +40,000. Also, the Feb ISM services index is expected to slip by -0.3 to 53.5. In addition, the Fed releases its Beige Book. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 215,000. Also, Q4 nonfarm productivity is expected to be up +1.8%, and Q4 unit labor costs are expected to be up +2.0%. On Friday, Feb nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +60,000, and the Feb unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Also, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. In addition, Feb retail sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m and Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to remain unchanged m/m.
Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 73% of the 481 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets are sharply lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-month low and is down -4.15%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 10.5-year high and closed down -1.43%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 3-week low and closed down -3.06%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.6 bp to 4.071. June T-notes tumbled to a 2-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 2-week high of 4.115%. Soaring energy prices today have sparked inflation concerns and are weighing on T-notes prices, with WTI crude oil up more than +7% at an 8.5-month high. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.318%. T-notes recovered from their worst levels after the stock sell-off prompted some safe-haven buying of government debt.
European government bond yields are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2.5-week high of 2.814% and is up +5.9 bp to 2.771%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 3-week high of 4.553% and is up +14.2 bp to 4.516%.
The Eurozone Feb CPI rose +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y. Feb core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.2% y/y.
Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate increase by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Magnificent Seven technology stocks are lower today. Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -4%, and
Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are down more than -2%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -2% as US officials are considering caps on the number of AI accelerators Nvidia can export to any one Chinese company. In addition, Meta Platforms (META) is down by more than -1%, Apple (AAPL) is down -0.85%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.60%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling today, weighing on the broader market. Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -7%. Also, KLA Corp (KLAC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Intel (INTC) are down more than -6%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -5%. In addition,Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Analog Devices (ADI), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are down more than -4%.
Mining stocks are plunging today with gold prices down more than -4% and silver prices down more than -7%. Hecla Mining (HL) is down more than -14%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is down more than -11%. Also, Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is down more than -10%, and Barrick Mining (B) is down more than -9%. In addition, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont Corp (NEM) are down more than -7%.
Airline stocks are under pressure for a second day today as crude oil prices surged to an 8.5-month high, which will boost jet fuel prices and cut into airlines’ profits. Alaska Air Group (ALK) is down more than -6%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are down more than -4%. Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -3%.
Homebuilders are retreating today after the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-week high, which will push mortgage rates higher and may curb home sales prospects. Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) are down more than -3%. Also, DR Horton (DHI), Toll Brothers (TOL), and KB Home (KBH) are down more than -2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%. MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -6%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -5%, and Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are down more than -3%.
Sea Lt. (SE) is down more than -23% after reporting Q4 net income of$410.9 million, weaker than the consensus of $442 million.
MongoDB (MDB) is down more than -22% after forecasting 2027 revenue of $2.86 billion to $2.90 billion, below the consensus of $2.90 billion.
Surgery Partners (SGRY) is down more than -20% after forecasting full-year revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, well below the consensus of $3.56 billion.
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is down more than 17% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $425 million to 435 million, the midpoint below the consensus of $430.5 million.
ON Holding AG (ONON) is down more than -13% after forecasting full-year net sales at constant currencies up +23%, below the consensus of +25.8%.
Pinterest (PINS) is up more than +6% after authorizing a new $3.5 billion share repurchase program and announcing a $1 billion strategic investment from Elliot Investment Management.
Best Buy (BBY) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.61, stronger than the consensus of $2.46.
Target (TGT) is up more than +4% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $7.50 to $8.50, the midpoint above the consensus of $7.61.
Earnings Reports(3/3/2026)
AutoZone Inc (AZO), Best Buy Co Inc (BBY), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD), Gitlab Inc (GTLB), On Holding AG (ONON), Ross Stores Inc (ROST), Thor Industries Inc (THO), Versant Media Group Inc (VSNT), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Sink as Crude Oil Surge Rattles Markets

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (Symbol: XLB) where we have detected an approximate $267.1 million dollar inflow -- that's a 3.7% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 134,147,450 to 139,147,450). Among the largest underlying components of XLB, in trading today Newmont Corp (Symbol: NEM) is off about 0.9%, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (Symbol: FCX) is off about 0.7%, and Sherwin-Williams Co (Symbol: SHW) is lower by about 2.7%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XLB Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of XLB, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, XLB's low point in its 52 week range is $36.56 per share, with $54.14 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $52.94. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Notable ETF Inflow Detected - XLB, NEM, FCX, SHW

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this mining company have returned -7.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.2% change. The Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, to which Freeport-McMoRan belongs, has lost 3.5% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Freeport-McMoRan is expected to post earnings of $0.38 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +40.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.9%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $1.49 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -3.3%. This estimate has changed -1.2% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.05 indicates a change of +37.8% from what Freeport-McMoRan is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -2.2%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Freeport-McMoRan is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Freeport-McMoRan, the consensus sales estimate of $6.02 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +1.9%. The $25.86 billion and $27.14 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +13.1% and +5%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Freeport-McMoRan reported revenues of $6.79 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.6%. EPS of $0.38 for the same period compares with $0.39 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.46 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +5.12%. The EPS surprise was -5%.
Over the last four quarters, Freeport-McMoRan surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Freeport-McMoRan is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Freeport-McMoRan. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (Symbol: FCX), where a total volume of 98,099 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 9.8 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 44.3% of FCX's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 22.2 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $75 strike call option expiring March 20, 2026, with 6,911 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 691,100 underlying shares of FCX. Below is a chart showing FCX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $75 strike highlighted in orange:
PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp (Symbol: PRCT) options are showing a volume of 5,378 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 537,800 underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 44% of PRCT's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 1.2 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $30 strike call option expiring March 20, 2026, with 4,733 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 473,300 underlying shares of PRCT. Below is a chart showing PRCT's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $30 strike highlighted in orange:
And Bank of America Corp (Symbol: BAC) options are showing a volume of 169,846 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 17.0 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 43.6% of BAC's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 38.9 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $50 strike put option expiring April 17, 2026, with 7,181 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 718,100 underlying shares of BAC. Below is a chart showing BAC's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $50 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for FCX options, PRCT options, or BAC options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: FCX, PRCT, BAC

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX and Southern Copper Corporation SCCO are two heavyweights in the copper mining industry. Both operate on a global scale, extracting and processing copper and other metals. Also, both are navigating fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties.
Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, were volatile yet mostly favorable in 2025 due to global economic and trade uncertainties. Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data-center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption.
Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand are supporting the red metal. Supply risks have also grown amid worries over lower output and potential disruptions at major global mining operations. Prices of the red metal are currently hovering near $6 per pound.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two copper mining companies to determine which one is a better investment now.
The Case for Freeport
Freeport is well-placed with high-quality copper assets and remains focused on strong execution and advancing its organic growth opportunities. At its Cerro Verde operation in Peru, a large-scale concentrator expansion provided incremental annual production of around 600 million pounds of copper and 15 million pounds of molybdenum. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.
FCX is also advancing pre-feasibility studies (expected to be completed in 2026) in the Safford/Lone Star operations in Arizona to define a significant sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona to more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.
PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) substantially completed the construction of the new greenfield smelter in Eastern Java during 2024, with the start-up of operations having commenced in the second quarter of 2025. The first production of copper anode was achieved in July 2025. PT-FI is also developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs. Gold production also started at the new precious metals refinery in late 2024.
FCX has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to finance its growth projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It generated solid operating cash flows of around $5.6 billion in 2025, including $693 million in the fourth quarter. Freeport ended 2025 with strong liquidity, including roughly $3.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.
At the end of 2025, Freeport had a net debt of $2.3 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to its shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027.
FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.5% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 17% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
Despite these positives, Freeport faces headwinds from higher costs. FCX saw a sharp increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $2.22 from $1.40 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 59% spike. It also climbed 34% year over year. The increase was fueled by a decline in copper sales volumes. Freeport's outlook for the first quarter of 2026 suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.60 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.75. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to impact costs in the quarter. Higher costs are expected to weigh on the company's margins.
Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 29% year over year in the fourth quarter to 709 million pounds, and fell from 977 million pounds in the prior quarter. The company sold 80,000 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter, down around 77% year over year. The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025, which led to the suspension of operations.
Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, indicating a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline. The company has issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line in the first quarter. FCX remains on track to start a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine beginning in second-quarter 2026.
The Case for Southern Copper
Southern Copper has a strong pipeline of world-class copper greenfield projects and other promising opportunities. It operates high-quality assets in investment-grade countries such as Mexico and Peru. Backed by its constant commitment to increasing low-cost production and growth investments, the company is well poised to continue delivering enhanced performance.
The company continues to build its presence in Peru as the country is the second-largest producer of copper. Peru holds about 9% of the world’s copper reserves. Despite the near-term production headwinds, Southern Copper expects to ramp up its copper production to around 1.6 million tons by 2033. To support this expansion, the company plans to invest more than $20.5 billion over the next decade, with $10.3 billion earmarked for Peru.
The long-awaited Tia Maria project, located in Arequipa, Peru, with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons of SX- EW copper cathodes, is expected to start in 2027. In Mexico, the El Pilar project (expected to start in 2029) will contribute around 36,000 tons of copper cathodes annually. This project will use highly cost-efficient and environmentally friendly SX-EW technology.
By 2030, El Arco in Mexico is expected to become online and add 190,000 tons of copper. Peru’s Los Chancas project is slated to add 130,000 tons of copper starting in 2031. This will be followed by Michiquillay in 2032, adding an expected 225,000 tons of copper. It is projected to become one of Peru's largest copper mines with an expected mine life of more than 25 years.
SCCO holds the largest copper reserves among listed peers, totaling 51.1 million metric tons. Its low-cost, integrated operations and deep pipeline of world-class greenfield projects further strengthen its competitive positioning. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expected surge in copper demand in the year to come, backed by the energy transition trend.
SCCO generated net cash from operating activities of $4.75 billion in 2025, up roughly 7.5% from $4.42 billion in 2024, attributable to higher net income. Net cash from operating activities was around $1.49 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $1.36 billion in the prior-year quarter, driven by strong cash generation in its operations. SCCO offers a dividend yield of 2% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 68%, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly -1.6%.
However, SCCO faces headwinds from near-term production declines. For 2025, copper production decreased 1.8% to 956,270 tons, which came in 1% lower than the company’s expected 965,000 tons. Lower output at Buenavista and the Peruvian mines, partially offset by a rise in production at IMMSA and La Caridad mines, led to lower output. Expecting lower ore grades at its Peruvian operations, the company expects copper production at 911,400 tons in 2026, implying a decrease of 4.7% from 2025. Lower production is expected to weigh on its performance.
FCX & SCCO: Price Performance, Valuation & Other Comparisons
FCX stock has gained 76.9% over a year, while SCCO stock has rallied 122.9% compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 92.6%.
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FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.45X, higher than its five-year median. This represents a roughly 2.5% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 26.11X.
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SCCO is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 33.18X, higher than its five-year median and above the industry.
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How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for FCX & SCCO?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a 6.7% and 41.8% increase year over year, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
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The consensus estimate for SCCO’s 2026 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 8.5% and 21.4%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days.
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FCX or SCCO: Which Is a Better Pick?
Both FCX and SCCO currently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Both Freeport and Southern Copper are making progress with their growth projects amid a volatile copper pricing environment. FCX is poised to gain from progress in its expansion activities that will boost production capacity. However, a weaker sales volume outlook and higher expected unit costs weigh on its prospects. On the other hand, SCCO’s case is backed by its constant commitment to increasing low-cost production and growth investments amid challenges from weaker expected near-term production. FCX’s more attractive valuation and higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
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