Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals. The company's assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.

Key Points
The setback will delay production, but it should not result in a long-term loss of output.
The stock is attractive, but there's near-term risk around the production restart schedule.
Management will give a more definitive view on these matters on an analyst call in November.
The last couple of months have been highly eventful for Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX). The mining company has revised its full-year and 2026 sales expectations following an incident at a mine in Indonesia in early September. As you might expect, the stock price subsequently dipped -- falling 22% over two days in late September before recovering some of those losses.
But is it enough to justify buying the stock, or is the copper and gold miner better to avoid right now?
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Freeport suffers a setback
The incident occurred on the evening of Sept. 8 at the Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) in Central Papua, Indonesia. A sudden rush of 800,000 tons of wet material occurred at a production drawpoint and entered the mine. It traveled rapidly to multiple mine levels, including the service level of the mine, according to the company's press release.
The severity of the event shouldn't be understated. Not only was it a fatal incident (seven workers died), but the GBC mine is a key part of Freeport-McMoRan's operations. Indonesia is also Freeport's lowest site production and delivery cost region.
The reduction in output from GBC will have a significant effect on the company's revenue. The mining company owns a 48.76% share in PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), which is responsible for its Indonesian operations. As a reminder, before the incident, Indonesia was set to provide 39% of Freeport's total mining production in 2025.
Moreover, management stated that "The GBC ore body represents 50% of PTFI's estimated proven and probable reserves as of December 31, 2024, and approximately 70% of PTFI's previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029."
Putting numbers to the production cuts
While the incident occurred in just one of the five blocks (PB1C) at GBC, it damaged the infrastructure necessary to support production in other blocks. Management plans to restart operations in two unaffected mines in the GBC area (Big Gossan and DeepMLZ) in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by the phased restart of three GBC production blocks and the "balance" of PB1C in 2017. Management's current estimates of the effect are as follows:
A 4% reduction in third-quarter copper sales, compared to previous estimates.
PTFI fourth-quarter 2025 sales will "be insignificant."
"PTFI production in 2026 could potentially be approximately 35% lower than pre-incident estimates."
Given that the estimates for PTFI for the fourth quarter were for 445 million pounds of copper and 345,000 ounces of gold, and the full-year total company estimate was for 3.95 million pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold, the Q4 reduction alone will shave 11.3% from full-year copper production and 26.5% from full-year gold production in 2025.
The effect in 2026 (assuming the 35% reduction in production holds across copper and gold) would lower Freeport's estimated copper production by almost 600 million pounds to a figure of 3.7 billion pounds, and gold by 560,000 ounces to a figure of just over 1 million ounces.
What it means to Freeport-McMoRan investors
The copper company's management expects the schedule outlined above to "target the return to pre-incident estimates in 2027." A positive way of looking at it is the loss of revenue from approximately 1 million pounds of copper over the next year or so, and 900,000 ounces of gold, before recovering in 2027.
The copper and gold aren't "lost," and there's unlikely to be any adjustment to PTFI's proven and probable reserves. In this context, long-term investors will see it as a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, it results in a loss of near-term revenue, and there's always a level of uncertainty surrounding the timing and cost of restarting mining operations. An investigation into the event is underway, and management has promised a conference call on the matter in November. It makes sense to wait for that update before deciding whether to buy in or not.
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Is Freeport-McMoRan's Recent Stock Slide a Buying Opportunity for Wise Investors?

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX recorded net income of $674 million or 46 cents per share for the third quarter of 2025, up around 28.1% from $526 million or 36 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 50 cents, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents.
Revenues rose roughly 2.7% year over year to $6,972 million. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,544.9 million. Although volumes declined, the company witnessed a sharp increase in copper and gold prices in the reported quarter.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
FCX's Operational Highlights
Copper production fell around 13.2% year over year to 912 million pounds in the reported quarter.
Consolidated sales also fell approximately 5.6% year over year, reaching 977 million pounds of copper. The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025. The company sold 336,000 ounces of gold, down around 40% year over year. FCX also sold 19 million pounds of molybdenum, flat year over year.
Consolidated average unit net cash costs per pound of copper were $1.40, up from $1.39 a year ago. The figure lagged our estimate of $1.59.
The average realized copper price was $4.68 per pound, up around 8.8% year over year. The figure outpaced our estimate of $4.40 per pound. The average realized price per ounce for gold rose around 37.8% year over year to $3,539. The figure topped our estimate of $3,300.
Freeport's Financial Position
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $4,318 million, down around 13.6% year over year. The company’s total debt was $9,298 million, down 3.9% year over year.
Cash flows provided by operations were around $1,664 million in the reported quarter, down 11.1% year over year.
FCX's Guidance
For full-year 2025, consolidated sales volumes are projected to be around 3.5 billion pounds of copper, 1.05 million ounces of gold and 82 million pounds of molybdenum. This includes an estimated 635 million pounds of copper, 60,000 ounces of gold and 21 million pounds of molybdenum expected to be sold in the fourth quarter.
Freeport's Price Performance
Freeport’s shares are down 11.6% in the past year against a 0.3% rise in the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Some better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space are Royal Gold, Inc. RGLD, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM and Fortuna Mining Corp. FSM.
Royal Gold is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RGLD’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.30 per share. RGLD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.95%. Royal Gold currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Avino Silver is slated to report third-quarter results on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at 3 cents per share. ASM’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 141.67%. Avino Silver flaunts a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present.
Fortuna Mining is expected to report third-quarter results on Nov. 5. FSM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. Fortuna Mining’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in one of the last four quarters and missed thrice.
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FCX's Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Copper Prices

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.5 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.41 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.38 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +21.95%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this mining company would post earnings of $0.46 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.54, delivering a surprise of +17.39%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Freeport-McMoRan, which belongs to the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, posted revenues of $6.97 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.53%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $6.79 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Freeport-McMoRan shares have added about 7.1% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 13.9%.
What's Next for Freeport-McMoRan?
While Freeport-McMoRan has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Freeport-McMoRan was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.19 on $5.14 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.39 on $24.92 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Mining - Non Ferrous is currently in the top 8% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Energy Fuels (UUUU), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2025. The results are expected to be released on November 3.
This uranium and vanadium miner and developer is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.08 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -14.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Energy Fuels' revenues are expected to be $9.85 million, up 143.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Should You Invest in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)?
Before you invest in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.
Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

(RTTNews) - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported a profit for its third quarter that increased from last year and beat the Street estimates.
The company's bottom line totaled $526 million, or $0.36 per share. This compares with $454 million, or $0.31 per share, in last year's third quarter.
Excluding items, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. reported adjusted earnings of $556 million or $0.38 per share for the period.
Analysts on average had expected the company to earn $0.35 per share, according to figures compiled by Thomson Reuters. Analysts' estimates typically exclude special items.
The company's revenue for the quarter rose 16.6% to $6.790 billion from $5.824 billion last year.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. earnings at a glance (GAAP) :
-Earnings (Q3): $526 Mln. vs. $454 Mln. last year. -EPS (Q3): $0.36 vs. $0.31 last year. -Revenue (Q3): $6.790 Bln vs. $5.824 Bln last year.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Q3 Profit Increases, Beats Estimates

The following companies are expected to report earnings prior to market open on 10/23/2025. Visit our Earnings Calendar for a full list of expected earnings releases.
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The wireless (national) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 8 analysts that follow the stock is $2.42. This value represents a 7.28% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year TMUS has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 5.58%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for TMUS is 22.24 vs. an industry ratio of 5.50, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The transportation (rail) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 7 analysts that follow the stock is $2.99. This value represents a 8.73% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for UNP is 19.30 vs. an industry ratio of 17.70, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Honeywell International Inc. (HON)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The diversified operations company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 6 analysts that follow the stock is $2.56. This value represents a 0.78% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year HON has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 4.17%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for HON is 19.95 vs. an industry ratio of 30.60.
Blackstone Inc. (BX)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The financial services company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 8 analysts that follow the stock is $1.22. This value represents a 20.79% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year BX has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 9.01%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for BX is 32.16 vs. an industry ratio of 18.60, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Freeport-McMoran, Inc. (FCX)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The mining company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 7 analysts that follow the stock is $0.41. This value represents a 7.89% increase compared to the same quarter last year. FCX missed the consensus earnings per share in the 3rd calendar quarter of 2024 by -5%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for FCX is 28.89 vs. an industry ratio of 45.00.
Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The information technology services company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 8 analysts that follow the stock is $5.11. This value represents a 10.61% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year ROP has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 1.04%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for ROP is 25.32 vs. an industry ratio of 15.00, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The oil refining company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 7 analysts that follow the stock is $2.91. This value represents a 155.26% increase compared to the same quarter last year. VLO missed the consensus earnings per share in the 3rd calendar quarter of 2024 by -11.63%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for VLO is 18.51 vs. an industry ratio of 9.70, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The real estate company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 5 analysts that follow the stock is $1.47. This value represents a 22.50% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year CBRE has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 13.33%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for CBRE is 25.99 vs. an industry ratio of 10.00, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
PG&E Corp (PCG)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The electric power utilities company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 4 analysts that follow the stock is $0.46. This value represents a 24.32% increase compared to the same quarter last year. The last two quarters PCG had negative earnings surprises; the latest report they missed by -6.06%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for PCG is 11.17 vs. an industry ratio of 19.80.
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The retail company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 11 analysts that follow the stock is $0.48. This value represents a 6.67% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for TSCO is 25.96 vs. an industry ratio of -9.90, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The electric power utilities company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 5 analysts that follow the stock is $0.46. This value represents a 48.39% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for CNP is 22.74 vs. an industry ratio of 19.80, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Dover Corporation (DOV)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The machinery company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 7 analysts that follow the stock is $2.50. This value represents a 10.13% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year DOV has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 2.09%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2025 Price to Earnings ratio for DOV is 18.29 vs. an industry ratio of 16.20, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Pre-Market Earnings Report for October 23, 2025 : TMUS, UNP, HON, BX, FCX, ROP, VLO, CBRE, PCG, TSCO, CNP, DOV

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX is set to release third-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Oct. 23.
The mining giant’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, missed once while delivering in-line results on the other occasion. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 10.4%, on average. While FCX is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices, the adverse impacts of the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia and higher costs are likely to have reflected in its performance.
FCX stock has lost 13.8% in the past year compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 3.8% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freeport’s third-quarter consolidated revenues is currently pegged at $6,598.2 million, which suggests a year-over-year decrease of roughly 2.8%.
Factors at Play for FCX Stock
Freeport’s third-quarter results are expected to have reflected favorable copper prices. Copper prices remained volatile this year amid global economic and trade uncertainties. After racking up solid gains in late March, copper prices slipped to around $4.1 per pound in early April amid demand worries due to tariffs, which threatened to cause a broader slowdown globally. However, prices of the red metal moved up in late April to roughly $4.9 per pound amid a weakening U.S. dollar on heightened concerns about the prospect of a downturn in the U.S. economy.
Prices again retreated to around $4.7 per pound in late May on weak global demand and increased supply. Prices recovered in June to close the second quarter above the $5 per pound level. The volatility continued in the third quarter with prices hitting an all-time high of around $5.96 per pound in July before slipping again to close the month at around $4.4 per pound. Copper prices, for the most part, remain around $4.5 per pound in August while climbing around the end of September to close the third quarter near $5 per pound on supply worries. Our estimate for third-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $4.4 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 2.2%.
FCX’s results are likely to have been unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Based on its preliminary assessment of potential impacts from the incident, FCX expects its third-quarter consolidated copper sales to be around 4% lower and gold sales to be roughly 6% lower than its estimates provided in July 2025. Lower sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line in the to-be-reported quarter.
Higher unit costs are also likely to have hurt the company’s performance in the September quarter. FCX saw a notable reduction in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the second quarter to just $1.13 from $1.73 a year earlier and well below its guidance of $1.50. The decline was fueled by operational efficiencies, higher gold credits and an uptick in copper sales volumes. However, lower expected sales volumes are likely to have led to higher costs in the third quarter. Our estimate for third-quarter consolidated average unit net cash costs per pound of copper is pegged at $1.59, indicating a rise from the prior quarter.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
What Our Model Unveils for FCX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FCX this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for FCX is -1.73%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at 41 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +16.07% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.68.
Newmont Corporation NEM, slated to release earnings on Oct. 23, has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
The consensus mark for NEM’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.27.
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +15.87%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 32 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
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Freeport-McMoRan to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.12%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.07%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.11%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1.5-week high. The broader market is moving slightly higher on some positive corporate news. General Motors is up more than +14% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate. Also, RTX Corp is up more than +8% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate. In addition, Coca-Cola is up more than +3% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 comparable EPS.
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On the negative side, mining stocks are under pressure today, with the price of gold down by more than -4% and silver prices sinking by more than -7% due to long liquidation pressures following their rallies to record highs last week. Also, weakness in chipmakers today is weighing on the Nasdaq 100.
Gains in stocks are limited as they consolidate some of their sharp gains made over the past two sessions. The market is focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump on Monday reiterated his threat to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
In some minor US economic news, the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell -9.9 to a 4-month low of -22.2.
The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the Sep payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
Trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing US government shutdown, and fears about credit quality in the US have sparked a buying spree in precious metals as a haven, with gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs last Friday.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new all-time high and is up +0.02%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.36%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a new record high and closed up by +0.27%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.5 bp to 3.955%. T-note prices today are slightly higher. T-notes have support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-notes maintained modest gains after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.2 bp to 2.555%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.3 bp to 4.482%.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
General Motors (GM) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $9.75-$10.50 from a previous estimate of $8.25-$10.00.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after it announced it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.
Halliburton (HAL) is up more than +9% after reporting Q3 revenue of $5.60 billion, better than the consensus of $5.39 billion.
RTX Corp (RTX) is up more than +8% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate to $86.5 billion-$87.0 billion from a previous estimate of $84.75 billion-$85.50 billion.
Danaher (DHR) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.89, stronger than the consensus of $1.72.
Crown Holdings (CCK) is up more than +4% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80 from a previous estimate of $7.10-$7.50, above the consensus of $7.39.
3M Co (MMM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials after raising its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.
Coca-Cola (KO) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 comparable EPS of 82 cents, above the consensus of 78 cents.
Mining stocks are under pressure today, with gold prices down by more than -4% and silver prices down by more than -7%. As a result, Newmont (NEM) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are down more than -3%.
Semiconductor stocks are sliding today and weighing on the Nasdaq 100. Marvel Technology (MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Micron Technology (MU) are down more than -2%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Nvidia (NVDA) are down more than -1%.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is down more than -17% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $11.
NuScale Power (SMR) is down more than -8% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $37.50.
Verizon Communications (VZ) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform.
Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -1% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 operating revenue after the company said it sees 2025 Medicaid operating margin “modestly negative.”
PulteGroup (PHM) is down more than -1% after reporting a Q3 backlog of home orders fell -18% y/y to 9,888, below the consensus of 9,990.
Earnings Reports(10/21/2025)
3M Co (MMM), Agree Realty Corp (ADC), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Chubb Ltd (CB), Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), Danaher Corp (DHR), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Electric Co (GE), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH), Matador Resources Co (MTDR), Mattel Inc (MAT), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Pentair PLC (PNR), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX), RTX Corp (RTX), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Supported by Strong Q3 Earnings Results

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.30%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.03%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.25%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1.5-week high. The broader market is moving slightly higher on some positive corporate news. General Motors is up more than +12% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate. Also, RTX Corp is up more than +10% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate. In addition, Coca-Cola is up more than +3% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 comparable EPS.
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On the negative side, mining stocks are under pressure today, with the price of gold down by more than -3% and silver prices sinking by more than -5%.
Gains in stocks are limited as they consolidate some of their sharp gains made over the past two sessions. The market is focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump on Monday reiterated his threat to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
In some minor US economic news, the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell -9.9 to a 4-month low of -22.2.
The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the Sep payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
Trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing US government shutdown, and fears about credit quality in the US have sparked a buying spree in precious metals as a haven, with gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs last Friday.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new all-time high and is up +0.05%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.36%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a new record high and closed up by +0.27%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.7 bp to 3.953%. T-note prices today are slightly higher. T-notes have support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-notes maintained modest gains after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.2 bp to 2.555%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.2 bp to 4.473%.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
General Motors (GM) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $9.75-$10.50 from a previous estimate of $8.25-$10.00.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after it announced it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.
RTX Corp (RTX) is up more than +10% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate to $86.5 billion-$87.0 billion from a previous estimate of $84.75 billion-$85.50 billion.
Halliburton (HAL) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 revenue of $5.60 billion, better than the consensus of $5.39 billion.
Danaher (DHR) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.89, stronger than the consensus of $1.72.
Crown Holdings (CCK) is up more than +4% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80 from a previous estimate of $7.10-$7.50, above the consensus of $7.39.
Coca-Cola (KO) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials after reporting Q3 comparable EPS of 82 cents, above the consensus of 78 cents.
3M Co (MMM) is up more than +2% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.
Mining stocks are under pressure today, with gold prices down by more than -3% and silver prices down by more than -5%. As a result, Newmont (NEM) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are down more than -3%.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is down more than -14% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $11.
NuScale Power (SMR) is down more than -7% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $37.50.
Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -4% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 operating revenue after the company said it sees 2025 Medicaid operating margin “modestly negative.”
PulteGroup (PHM) is down more than -3% after reporting a Q3 backlog of home orders fell -18% y/y to 9,888, below the consensus of 9,990.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year sales forecast to $41.70 billion-$41.90 billion from a previous estimate of $43.05 billion-$42.25 billion, weaker than the consensus of $42.22 billion.
W R Berkley (WRB) is down more than -1% after reporting Q3 net premiums written of $3.23 billion, below the consensus of $3.28 billion.
Earnings Reports(10/21/2025)
3M Co (MMM), Agree Realty Corp (ADC), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Chubb Ltd (CB), Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), Danaher Corp (DHR), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Electric Co (GE), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH), Matador Resources Co (MTDR), Mattel Inc (MAT), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Pentair PLC (PNR), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX), RTX Corp (RTX), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Mixed on Mostly Positive Corporate News

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +0.53%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.65%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.55%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose +0.70%.
Stock index futures recovered from sharp overnight losses and moved higher on Friday as banking worries and trade tensions eased. Solid earnings results from regional banks on Friday lifted market sentiment after Truist Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings. Regional bank stocks had tumbled on Thursday amid concerns about the credit quality of regional banks, sparked by news that Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp were victims of fraud involving loans to funds that invest in distressed commercial mortgages.
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Stock indexes also garnered support on Friday as China-US trade tensions eased slightly after President Trump said current tariffs on China were “not sustainable” and affirmed that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month in South Korea. Stocks added to their gains Friday afternoon when Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism that upcoming talks with China’s leaders could yield a broader trade deal.
Dovish comments on Friday from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem were supportive for stocks when he said he estimates current Fed policy to be “somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral,” and he could support another interest rate cut to bolster a slowing labor market.
The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing US government shutdown, and fears about credit quality in the US have sparked a buying spree in precious metals as a haven, with gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs on Friday. However, both metals plunged on Friday as the easing of trade tensions and stabilization of bank stocks prompted long liquidation in precious metals.
The shutdown of the US government continues, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims, the Aug US trade report, and the Sep payroll report. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was originally scheduled to be released on Wednesday, will be released on October 24. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season begins. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 78% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets settled lower on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.79%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -1.95%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.44%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Friday closed down -9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.8 bp to 4.003%. Dec T-notes fell from a 6.25-month high on Friday and turned lower, and the 10-year T-note yield rebounded from a 6.25-month low of 3.934% and moved higher.
T-notes gave up overnight gains and turned lower on Friday after several regional bank stocks reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings, which eased concerns over credit quality in regional banks, improved market sentiment, and sparked long liquidation in T-notes. Additionally, the easing of US-China trade tensions has curbed safe-haven demand for government debt securities and weighed on T-notes on Friday, following President Trump’s statement that the high tariffs he has threatened to impose on China are unsustainable.
T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-notes also garnered support Friday on dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who said he could support another interest rate cut to bolster a slowing labor market.
European government bond yields on Friday finished higher. The 10-year German bund yield recovered from a 3.5-month low of 2.523% and finished up +1.0 bp to 2.580%. The 10-year UK gilt yield recovered from a 3.5-month low of 4.451% and finished up +3.0 bp to 4.531%.
Eurozone Sep core CPI was revised upward by +0.1 to a 5-month high of 2.4% y/y from the previously reported 2.3% y/y.
ECB Governing Council member Simkus said, “downside risks to both growth and inflation” may require the ECB to lower interest rates further in the months ahead.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Most of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks rallied on Friday and lent support to the overall market. Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +2% and Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +1%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) closed up +0.78%, Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up +0.76%, Meta Platforms (META) closed up +0.68%, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up +0.39%.
American Express (AXP) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q3 EPS of $4.14, stronger than the consensus of $3.99.
Zions Bancorp (ZION) closed up more than +5% after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $65.
Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) closed up more than +5% after Oppenheimer & Co. upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $81.
Truist Financial (TFC) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q3 non-interest income of $1.56 billion, better than the consensus of $1.49 billion.
Ally Financial (ALLY) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.15, stronger than the consensus of $1.00.
CSX Corp (CSX) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q3 revenue of $3.59 billion, better than the consensus of $3.57 billion.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q3 net interest income of $1.53 billion, above the consensus of $1.52 billion.
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks moved lower on Friday on long liquidation following their recent blistering rallies. Oracle (ORCL) closed down more than -6% and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -3%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, Broadcom (AVGO), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), and Dell Technologies (DELL) closed down more than -1%.
Mining stocks tumbled on Friday after gold prices dropped by more than 1% and silver prices sank by more than 5%. Kinross Gold (KGC) closed down more than -9% and Newmont (NEM) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Barrick Mining (B) closed down more than -6% and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -1%.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) closed down more than -6% after Barclays double-downgraded the stock to underweight from overweight with a price target of $60.
Eli Lilly (LLY) closed down more than 2% after President Trump announced that the White House will negotiate the price of the diabetes drug Ozempic down to as low as $150 a month.
State Street Corp (STT) closed down more than -1% after reporting Q3 net interest income of $715 million, below the consensus of $731.3 million.
Earnings Reports(10/20/2025)
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), Crown Holdings Inc (CCK), RLI Corp (RLI), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), Summit Therapeutics Inc (SMMT), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Settle Higher as Bank Worries and Trade Tensions Recede

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +1.56%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +2.18%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +1.47%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose +2.12%.
Stock indexes rose sharply on Monday as they recovered some of their losses from last Friday's plunge. Asset markets rebounded on Monday after the Trump administration softened its rhetoric toward China. Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks also rallied on Monday, with Broadcom jumping more than 9% after OpenAI signed a multi-year agreement with the company to collaborate on custom chips and networking equipment, which could add 10 gigawatts' worth of AI data center capacity.
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There was no trading in cash Treasuries on Monday due to the Columbus Day holiday. The price of gold surged by more than 3% on Monday to a new all-time high, driven by central bank buying, expectations for additional Fed rate cuts, and safe-haven demand stemming from the US government shutdown, threats to the Fed's independence, global trade tensions, and geopolitical risks.
Dovish comments on Monday from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson were supportive for stocks, as she said she favors two more quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, given that she doesn't see conditions that would turn tariff-induced price increases into sustained inflation.
The Trump administration signaled openness on Sunday to a trade deal with China in an attempt to ease trade tensions. Stocks plunged last Friday after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions on US software exports, effective November 1, in retaliation for China's sweeping new curbs on exports of rare-earth materials and related technology.
Trade news from China was better than expected, a positive sign for global economic growth and a bullish factor for the stock market. China Sep exports rose +8.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.6% y/y and the biggest increase in six months. Also, Sep imports rose +6.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the largest increase in 17 months.
Most stock indexes rallied to record highs last week on optimism that growth in the AI sector and spending on artificial intelligence will translate into corporate profits. Stocks are also underpinned by hopes that a resilient US economy and additional Fed easing will continue to support the economy.
The shutdown of the US government continues, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last two weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims, the Aug US trade report, and the Sep nonfarm payrolls report. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said that it will release the September consumer price report on October 24 if the government shutdown continues into Wednesday, when the Sep CPI report is scheduled for release. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingered, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don't align with President Trump's priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets this week will focus on trade or tariff news and any attempts to reopen the government. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell delivers the keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting. Also on Tuesday, major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo & Co., will begin releasing their earnings results as the Q3 earnings season begins.
Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results that are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2%, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.67%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 2.5-week low and closed down -0.19%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 did not trade as markets in Japan are closed for the Health-Sports Day holiday.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Monday closed up +0.5 of a tick. Cash 10-year T-notes did not trade on Monday, with the Treasury market closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Dec -T-notes were little changed on Monday and found support on dovish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who said she favors two more quarter-point interest rate cuts this year. T-notes also have support amid concerns about the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Gains in T-notes were limited after stocks rebounded sharply, which curbed safe-haven demand for government debt securities.
European government bond yields moved lower on Monday. The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 2-month low of 2.622% and finished down -0.8 bp at 2.636%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 3-week low of 4.644% and finished down -1.7 bp to 4.658%.
The German Sep wholesale price index rose +1.2% y/y, the fastest pace in six months.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers rallied sharply higher on Monday, boosting the overall market. Broadcom (AVGO) closed more than +9% after OpenAI signed a multi-year agreement with the company to collaborate on custom chips and networking equipment. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and ON Semiconductor (ON) closed up more than +9%. In addition, Micron Technology (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed up more than +6%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Qualcomm (QCOM), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +5%. Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), Analog Devices (ADI), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +4%.
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks rose on Monday as they recovered some of the losses from last Friday's plunge. Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +5% and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up more than +3%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) closed up more than +2%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +1%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) closed up +0.97% and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up +0.60%.
Rare earth stocks surged on Monday as fresh tensions between China and the US over China's exports of the minerals are boosting alternative suppliers. As a result, Critical Metals (CRML) closed up more than +53%, MP Materials (MP) closed up more than +21%, and Ramaco Resources (METC) closed up more than +11%.
Mining stocks moved higher on Monday, as the price of gold rose more than +3% to an all-time high and silver prices jumped more than +6% to a record high. As a result, Coeur Mining (CDE) closed up more than +8%. Also, Newmont (NEM closed up more than +5%, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed up more than +4%, and Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU) closed up more than +3%.
Estee Lauder (EL) closed up more than +5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $115.
Ciena Corp (CIEN) closed up more than +5% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $185.
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) closed up more than +4% after rejecting Paramount Skydance Corp's initial takeover offer as too low.
Stubhub Holdings (STUB) closed up more than +3% after Wedbush initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $25.
Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) closed down sharply by more than -83% after a Phase 2 trial of its TI-101 to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis failed to meet its goals.
Fastenal (FAST) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 EPS of 29 cents, below the consensus of 30 cents.
US casino stocks with exposure to Macau are sliding today after Macau industry data showed gaming revenue for the Golden Week holiday was down -5% y/y. As a result, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) closed down more than -6%.
Defensive food producers and beverage makers declined on Monday, following a broader market rebound. J M Smucker (SJM) and Monster Beverage (MNST) closed down more than -3%. Also, General Mills (GIS) and Conagra Brands (CAG) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Hershey (HSY), the Campbell's Company (CPB), and McCormick & Co. (MKC) closed down more than -1%.
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) closed down more than -5% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell form neutral with a price target of $70.
Earnings Reports(10/14/2025)
Albertsons Cos Inc (ACI), Blackrock Inc (BLK), Citigroup Inc (C), Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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	S/L 5%RUB 43.16	S/L 10%RUB 45.21	S/L 15%RUB 47.27
Day	17.41%	0.79%	0.01%
Week	54.33%	23.51%	8.16%
Month	76.68%	56.23%	39.55%

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