Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Capital One Financial Corporation

With Capital One COF recently reporting strong Q2 results, investors will be looking forward to Visa’s V and Mastercard's MA quarterly reports next week on Tuesday, July 29, and Thursday, July 31, respectively.
While Capital One’s focus is on consumer and commercial lending, Mastercard and Visa are two of the leading payment solution providers, making it an interesting topic of which of these credit card giants may be the better investment as earnings approach.
Mastercard & Visa’s Quarterly Expectations
Based on Zacks' estimates, Mastercard’s Q2 sales are thought to have increased 15% year over year to $7.99 billion compared to $6.96 billion in the prior period. On the bottom line, Mastercard’s Q2 earnings are expected to rise 13% to $4.05 per share from EPS of $3.59 a year ago. Notably, Mastercard has exceeded the Zacks EPS Consensus for 18 consecutive quarters, most recently topping Q1 earnings expectations by 4.48% in May.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Reporting results for its fiscal third quarter, Visa’s Q3 sales are expected to be up 11% to $9.87 billion versus $8.9 billion in the comparative quarter. More intriguing, Visa’s Q3 earnings are slated to spike 18% to $2.86 per share from EPS of $2.42 in the prior year quarter. Furthermore, Visa has surpassed the Zacks EPS Consensus for a remarkable 21 consecutive quarters and has at least reached earnings expectations since 2012, most recently topping its Q2 earnings estimates by nearly 3% at the end of April.
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Mastercard & Visa’s EPS Outlook
Magnifying Mastercard and Visa’s exceptional operational performance is that both are expected to post steady EPS growth for the foreseeable future.
Mastercard’s annual earnings are projected to rise 10% in fiscal 2025 and are forecasted to spike another 16% in FY26 to $18.71 per share. Plus, Mastercard’s FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates are slightly up in the last 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As for Visa, its annual earnings are now projected to increase 13% in fiscal 2025, with FY26 EPS forecasted to rise another 12% to $12.81. Visa’s FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates are also modestly higher over the last month.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stock Performance & Valuation Comparison
Interestingly enough, over the last three years, the performance of Mastercard and Visa stock is virtually the same, with gains of over +65%. This has slightly edged the benchmark S&P 500 while being pleasantly above their Zacks Financial Transaction Services Market’s returns of +45%. That said, Visa stock is up +12% year to date to outpace Mastercard’s +8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Perhaps the deciding factor for some investors is valuation, and Visa stock has a slight edge here in terms of price-to-earnings. At 31X forward earnings, Visa stock is still at a premium to their Zacks Financial Transaction Services Industry average of 15X, but does trade beneath Mastercard’s 35X and is closer to the S&P 500’s 24X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
It’s certainly not easy to distinguish which of these credit card giants may be the better investment, as Mastercard and Visa have intriguing growth prospects and are both dominant industry leaders. However, having a slight edge in terms of value and an unprecedented streak of reaching or exceeding earnings expectations, Visa stock sports a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with Mastercard shares landing a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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Mastercard Vs Visa Stock: Which is the Better Investment Ahead of Earnings?

SouthState Corporation SSB reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.30, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.00. The bottom line also increased 28.5% from the prior-year quarter. The results excluded certain notable items.
Results benefited from a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income. However, higher expenses and provisions were headwinds.
Net income attributable to common shareholders was $215.2 million, up 62.6% year over year.
SouthState’s Revenues & Expenses
Total revenues in the quarter were $664.8 million, up 56.2% year over year. The top line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.9%.
NII was $577.9 million, up 65% from the year-ago quarter. The net interest margin rose to 4.02% from 3.44% in the prior-year quarter.
Non-interest income was $86.8 million, up 15.4% from the prior-year quarter. The rise was driven by almost all components except for other income and net securities losses.
Non-interest expenses increased significantly by 50.8% to $375.1 million from the year-ago quarter. The rise was mainly due to an increase in merger, branch consolidation, severance-related, and other restructuring expenses.
The efficiency ratio (TE) increased to 52.75% from 57.03% in the year-ago quarter. A decline in the efficiency ratio indicates a rise in profitability.
SSB’s Loans & Deposits
As of June 30, 2025, net loans were $46.6 billion, up 1.1% from the prior-quarter end. Total deposits were $53.7 billion, which rose marginally on a sequential basis.
SouthState’s Asset Quality
Provision for credit losses was $7.5 million, which increased significantly by 92.9% from the prior-year quarter.
Allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans was 1.31%, down 11 bps year over year. The ratio of annualized net charge-offs to total average loans was 0.21%, up from 0.05% in the year-ago quarter.
Non-performing loans to total loans were 0.63%, up 4 bps from the prior-year quarter.
SSB’s Capital Ratios & Profitability Ratios
As of June 30, 2025, the Tier I leverage ratio was 9.2%, down from 9.7% in the year-ago quarter. Tier 1 common equity ratio decreased to 11.2% from the prior-year quarter’s 12.1%.
At the end of the second quarter, the annualized return on average assets was 1.34%, up from the year-ago period’s 1.17%.
Return on average common equity was 9.93% compared with 9.58% in the prior-year quarter.
SouthState’s Capital Distribution
The company increased its quarterly cash dividend on its common stock by 11.1% to 60 cents per share. The dividend is payable on Aug. 15, to shareholders of record as of Aug. 8, 2025.
Our Take on SouthState
SSB ended the second quarter on a positive note, with the top and bottom lines rising year over year. Rising NII and non-interest income will continue to support its financials in the future. Rising loan and deposit balances look encouraging. However, high expenses due to inorganic expansion efforts will likely hamper its bottom line.
SouthState Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Currently, SSB carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performances of Other Finance Stocks
Capital One’s COF second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.48 per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.83. The bottom line also compared favorably with $4.06 in the prior quarter.
COF’s results benefited from higher NII and non-interest income. Also, loans and deposits improved in the quarter. However, the increase in expenses and jump in provisions were undermining factors.
Ally Financial’s ALLY second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 99 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. Further, the bottom line reflected a jump of 35.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Results benefited from a rise in net finance revenues and other revenues. Further, lower non-interest expenses and reduced provision provided support. However, a decline in net finance receivables and loans and deposits was the undermining factor for ALLY.
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SouthState Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Expenses Rise

Mr. Cooper Group Inc. COOP reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $3.13, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6%. However, the bottom line rose 24.2% year over year.
The increase in expenses was the major headwind for the company in the second quarter. However, improvements in the Servicing and Originations segments provided partial support.
Net income of $198 million in the second quarter declined 2.9% from $204 million a year ago.
COOP’s Revenues & Expenses
Mr. Cooper's second-quarter total revenues rose 4.3% year over year to $608 million. However, the top line missed the consensus mark by 13.6%.
Total expenses of $330 million grew 10% year over year.
Interest income of $217 million jumped 14.8% year over year. Interest expenses increased 16% year over year to $217 million in the quarter under review.
Mr. Cooper's Segmental Performance
The Servicing segment reported a pre-tax operating income of $332 million, which rose 15.3% year over year in the second quarter due to portfolio growth and strong operating leverage. Total revenues of $434 million fell 4.8% from a year ago. The servicing portfolio increased 25.1% year over year, surpassing the $1.51-trillion mark.
The Originations segment’s pre-tax operating income of $64 million increased 68.4% from a year ago. Total revenues of $158 million in the second quarter rose 47.7% from a year ago. The recapture percentage was 17%, down from 22% a year ago. Funded volume of $9.4 billion increased from the year-ago figure of $3.7 billion.
COOP's Financial Position (As of June 30, 2025)
Mr. Cooper exited the second quarter of 2025 with total assets of $18.5 billion, slightly higher than $18.4 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Cash and cash equivalents amounted to $783 million, slightly lower than $784 million at the end of the previous quarter.
Net unsecured senior notes were $4.9 billion, marginally up from the previous quarter. Total liabilities of $13.4 billion at the second-quarter end were lower than $13.6 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Total shareholders’ equity rose from $4.9 billion in the previous quarter to $5.1 billion in the second quarter.
Our View on Mr. Cooper
COOP ended the second quarter on a weaker note, with net income declining and expenses rising. Nonetheless, continued strength in the Originations and Servicing segments, along with a solid balance sheet, offers support and are likely to improve its financials in the upcoming period.
MR. COOPER GROUP INC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other Consumer Loan Providers
Capital One’s COF second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.48 per share widely surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.83. The bottom line also compared favorably with $4.06 in the prior quarter.
COF’s results benefited from higher NII and non-interest income. Also, loans and deposits improved in the quarter. However, the increase in expenses and jump in provisions were undermining factors.
Ally Financial’s ALLY second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 99 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. Further, the bottom line reflected a jump of 35.6% from the year-ago quarter.
ALLY's results benefited from a rise in net finance revenues and other revenues. Further, lower non-interest expenses and reduced provision provided support. However, a decline in net finance receivables and loans, and deposits was the undermining factor.
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Mr. Cooper Q2 Earnings & Revenues Miss, Expenses Rise Y/Y

In a busy week that includes quarterly results from Tesla TSLA and Alphabet GOOGL, Capital One (COF) is sharing the spotlight after crushing its Q2 earnings expectations on Tuesday.
With Visa V and Mastercard MA set to release their reports next week, Capital One has set the bar for these major credit card and payment solution providers.
That said, let’s see if it’s time to buy Capital One stock, with it noteworthy that COF is up more than +20% in 2025 and has now soared nearly +100% in the last three years to impressively outperform the broader market, Visa, and Mastercard’s gains of over +60%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Capital One’s Strong Q2 Results
Setting Capital One apart from credit card giants like Visa and Mastercard is the company’s focus on consumer and commercial lending. Further boosting Capital One’s consumer and lending endeavors was the completed acquisition of Discover Financial Services in May, which added $2 billion in revenue during Q2 and also expanded its credit card and payment networks footprint.
Overall, Capital One’s Q2 sales soared 31% to $12.49 billion compared to $9.5 billion a year ago and topped estimates of $12.22 billion. More impressive, Q2 earnings skyrocketed 74% to $5.48 per share from EPS of $3.14 in the prior year quarter. Astonishingly, this crushed the Zacks EPS Consensus of $3.83 by 43%, with it noteworthy that Capital One has now surpassed its bottom-line expectations for four consecutive quarters, posting a very impressive average earnings surprise of 23.02%.
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss of $4.3 billion, due to separate one-time charges from the $35.3 billion acquisition of Discover, other Q2 highlights included Capital One’s credit card loans surging 72% to $269.7 billion while deposits rose 27% to $468.1 billion.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Discover’s Loan Boost
Notably, Capital One acquired $98.3 billion of domestic card loans from Discover with what CFO Andre Young said was a net fair value discount of $220 million. Additionally, Capital One acquired $9.9 billion of personal loans with a net fair value discount of $114 million, along with $106.7 billion of deposits with a net fair value discount of $30 million.
Capital One also acquired $7.9 billion of home loans, which have been marked as held for sale and are now included in its discontinued operations.
Capital One Reconfirms its Full-Year Outlook
Amid the recent Discover acquisition, Capital One still reconfirmed its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook, expecting revenue to increase 36% to $53.29 billion, which came in above the current Zacks Consensus of $52.3 billion. Furthermore, Capital One still expects annual earnings to be up 9% to $15.25 per share, although this was below previous updated expectations of $15.51.
Capital One’s Attractive Valuation
Intriguing to long-term investors is that at 14X forward earnings, Capital One stock still trades nicely beneath the benchmark S&P 500’s 24X. Plus, Capital One trades at an even steeper discount to Visa and Mastercard’s forward earnings multiples of 30X and 34X, respectively.
COF also trades under the optimum level of less than 2X forward sales, while Visa and Mastercard stock trade at more than 17X, with the S&P 500’s average at 5.4X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion & Final Thoughts
While Capital One wasn’t able to raise its full-year guidance after crushing earnings expectations, reconfirming its outlook was still a meaningful sign that the Discover acquisition is paying off. For now, Capital One stock lands a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and surely offers long-term value to investors at current levels.
That said, more upside (and a buy rating) will likely depend on what is hopefully a positive trend of earnings estimate revisions for FY26, as FY25 EPS estimates are likely to decline in correlation with the company’s guidance coming in below previous updated projections of $15.51 per share, which had risen over the last 30 days.
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Should Investors Buy Capital One Stock After Crushing Q2 EPS Expectations?

Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) is set to report Q2 2025 results on Tuesday, July 22, marking its first earnings release since completing the landmark acquisition of Discover in May. The all-stock deal created the largest U.S. credit card issuer by outstanding balances and has positioned Capital One as a vertically integrated payments powerhouse with its own network. Although the impact of the merger will not be immediately visible in this quarter’s numbers, we will be watching for updates on integration progress, synergy realization, and strategic direction.
The company has guided for roughly $2.7 billion in annual synergies by 2027. Revenue for the quarter is likely to come in at about $12.7 billion per consensus estimates, while earnings are projected at $3.56 per share, supported by higher net interest income from higher card balances as well as rising interchange fees. We will also look for updates on the company’s outlook. While the credit card business has fared well post-pandemic, recent tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are weighing on global trade and could pressure consumer spending and travel.
The company has $140 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months (prior to the Discover deal) was $40 billion and net income of $4.9 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Capital One Financial’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 15 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 75% of the time.
Notably, this percentage increases to 92% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
Median of the 15 positive returns = 3.7%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -4.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Capital One Financial, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

How Will Capital One Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.14%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.26%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.15%.
Stock indexes today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2-week high. Stocks found support today on some positive trade news that has boosted market sentiment. President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan late Tuesday, which will impose 15% tariffs on imports from Japan, lower than the previously announced 25% rate set to take effect on August 1. The deal also creates a $550 billion fund for Japan to invest in the US. Japan also agreed to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase its purchases of US rice by 75%, and buy $8 billion in other agricultural products, while raising its defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually, from $14 billion.
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However, the Nasdaq 100 index is under pressure today due to weakness in auto-related chip makers, led by a -12% plunge in Texas Instruments after company executives on anearnings callsaid there isn’t a “true broad recovery” in the automotive sector, as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs.
Today’s US economic news was bearish for stocks after June existing home sales fell -2.7% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.93 million, weaker than expectations of -0.7% to 4.00 million.
US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.8% in the week ended July 18, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +3.4% and the refinancing sub-index down -2.6%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +2 bp to 6.84% from 6.82% in the prior week.
Recent trade news has put some downward pressure on stocks. Last Wednesday, President Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Also, President Trump recently announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. In addition, Mr. Trump said that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%.
The markets this week will focus on any tariff news along with the announcement of any new trade deals. After today’s close, Alphabet and Tesla will release their quarterly earnings. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +5,000 to 226,000. Also, the July S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to slip -0.2 to 52.7. Finally, on Thursday, June new home sales are expected to climb +4.3% m/m to 650,000. On Friday, June capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts are expected to increase by +0.2% m/m.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
The markets are absorbing a heavy slate of quarterly corporate earnings results this week. About one-fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report their Q2 earnings results this week. Early results now show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +3.2% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.88%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a new 9.5-month high and closed up +0.01%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 1-year high and closed up sharply by +3.51%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -8 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.0 bp to 4.374%. T-notes are retreating today after the announcement of a trade deal between Japan and the US reduced safe-haven demand for government debt. Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today.
Losses in T-notes are contained after US existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low, a dovish factor for Fed policy. T-note prices also have support as the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low today of 2.386%.
European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.4 bp to 2.604%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +4.2 bp to 4.611%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday’s policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Power producers are climbing today after PJM Interconnection LLC predicted that the AI boom will prompt businesses and households served by the largest US power grid to spend a record $16.1 billion to ensure electricity supplies, which could support utility profit margins. Talen Energy (TLN) is up more than +8% and Vistra (VST) is up more than +6%. Also, NRG Energy (NRG) is up more than +5% and Constellation Group (CEG) is up more than +4%.
Weakness in shares of automotive and industrial chipmakers is limiting gains in the Nasdaq 100, with Texas Instruments (TXN) down more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after company executives on anearnings callsaid there isn’t a “true broad recovery” in the automotive sector as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs. Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) is down more than -7% and Microchip Technology (MCHP) is down more than -6%. In addition, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Analog Devices (ADI), and Global Foundries (GFS) are down more than -2%.
Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) is up more than +20% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 net sales of $1.68 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.59 billion.
GE Vernova (GEV) is up more than +14% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.11 billion, stronger than the consensus of $8.80 billion.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is up more than +13% after reporting Q2 revenue of $10.86 billion, above the consensus of $10.69 billion, and forecasting full-year sales of $43.6 billion-$44.2 billion, the midpoint above the consensus of $43.7 billion.
Lennox International (LII) is up more than +9% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $7.82, well above the consensus of $6.89.
TE Connectivity Plc (TEL) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 net sales of $4.53 billion, better than the consensus of $4.33 billion, and forecasting Q4 net sales of $4.55 billion, above the consensus of $4.42 billion.
Baker Hughes (BKR) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $6.91 billion, stronger than the consensus of $6.64 billion.
Capital One Financial (COF) is up more than +1% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $12.49 billion, above the consensus of $11.84 billion.
Fiserv (FI) is down more than -17% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 organic revenue grew +8.00%, below the consensus of +8.91%.
Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is down more than -11% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.60 billion, below the consensus of $3.71 million, and cutting its full-year net sales forecast to $114.5 billion to $14.6 billion from a previous estimate of $14.6 billion to $14.8 billion, weaker than the consensus of $14.72 billion.
Teledyne Technologies (TDY) is down more than -5% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $21.20-$21.50, the midpoint below the consensus of $21.42.
Unity Software (U) is down more than -3% after BTIG downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $25.
Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) is down more than -3% after reporting Q2 provision for credit losses of $16.5 million, well above the consensus of $4.31 million.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year net income forecast to $1.64 billion to $1.68 billion from a previous forecast of $1.71 billion to $1.75 billion.
Earnings Reports (7/23/2025)
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Amphenol Corp (APH), AT&T Inc (T), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), CSX Corp (CSX), Fiserv Inc (FI), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Globe Life Inc (GL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), International Business Machine (IBM), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Lennox International Inc (LII), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Moody’s Corp (MCO), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), NVR Inc (NVR), O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), Rollins Inc (ROL), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), TE Connectivity PLC (TEL), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), United Rentals Inc (URI).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Easing Trade Tensions Boost Stocks but Chip Stocks Slide

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.17%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.21%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.15%.
Stock indexes today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2-week high. Stocks found support today on some positive trade news that has boosted market sentiment. President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan late Tuesday, which will impose 15% tariffs on imports from Japanese, lower than the previously announced 25% rate set to take effect on August 1. The deal also creates a $550 billion fund for Japan to invest in the US. Japan also agreed to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase its purchases of US rice by 75%, and buy $8 billion in other agricultural products, while raising its defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually, from $14 billion.
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However, the Nasdaq 100 index is under pressure today due to weakness in auto-related chip makers, with Texas Instruments down more than -10% after company executives on anearnings callsaid there isn’t a "true broad recovery" in the automotive sector as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs.
US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.8% in the week ended July 18, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +3.4% and the refinancing sub-index down -2.6%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +2 bp to 6.84% from 6.82% in the prior week.
Recent trade news has put some downward pressure on stocks. Last Wednesday, President Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Also, President Trump recently announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. In addition, Mr. Trump said that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%.
The markets this week will focus on any tariff news along with the announcement of any new trade deals. Later today, Jun existing home sales are expected to fall -0.7% m/m to 4.00 million. After today's close, Alphabet and Tesla will release their quarterly earnings. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +5,000 to 226,000. Also, the July S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to slip -0.2 to 52.7. Finally, on Thursday, June new home sales are expected to climb +4.3% m/m to 650,000. On Friday, June capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts are expected to increase by +0.2% m/m.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
The markets are absorbing a heavy slate of quarterly corporate earnings results this week. About one-fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report their Q2 earnings results this week. Early results now show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +3.2% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.04%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a new 9.5-month high and closed up +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 1-year high and closed up sharply by +3.51%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.8 bp to 4.372%. T-notes are retreating today after the announcement of a trade deal between Japan and the US reduced safe-haven demand for government debt. Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today. Easing inflation expectations are limiting losses in T-notes as the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low today of 2.388%.
European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.8 bp to 2.608%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +4.4 bp to 4.613%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Power producers are climbing today after PJM Interconnection LLC predicted that the AI boom will prompt businesses and households served by the largest US power grid to spend a record $16.1 billion to ensure electricity supplies, which could support utility profit margins. Vistra (VST) is up more than +8% and Constellation Group (CEG) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Talen Energy (TLN) is up more than +7%, and NRG Energy (NRG) is up more than +5%.
Weakness in shares of automotive and industrial chipmakers is limiting gains in the Nasdaq 100, with Texas Instruments (TXN) down more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after company executives on anearnings callsaid there isn’t a "true broad recovery" in the automotive sector as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs. Also, Microchip Technology (MCHP) is down more than -8%, ON Semiconductor (ON) is down more than -5%, and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Analog Devices (ADI) are down more than -3%. In addition, Global Foundries (GFS) is down more than -2%.
Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 net sales of $1.68 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.59 billion.
GE Vernova (GEV) is up more than +11% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.11 billion, stronger than the consensus of $8.80 billion.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is up more than +10% after reporting Q2 revenue of $10.86 billion, above the consensus of $10.69 billion, and forecasting full-year sales of $43.6 billion-$44.2 billion, the midpoint above the consensus of $43.7 billion.
Lennox International (LII) is up more than +9% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $7.82, well above the consensus of $6.89.
TE Connectivity Plc (TEL) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 net sales of $4.53 billion, better than the consensus of $4.33 billion, and forecasting Q4 net sales of $4.55 billion, above the consensus of $4.42 billion.
Manhattan Associates (MANH) is up more than +15% after reporting Q2 revenue of $272.4 million, better than the consensus of $263.7 million, and boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $1.07 billion-$1.08 billion from a previous forecast of $1.06 billion-$1.07 billion, higher than the consensus of $1.06 billion.
Capital One Financial (COF) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $12.49 billion, above the consensus of $11.84 billion.
Fiserv (FI) is down more than -20% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 organic revenue grew +8.00%, below the consensus of +8.91%.
Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is down more than -11% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.60 billion, below the consensus of $3.71 million, and cutting its full-year net sales forecast to $114.5 billion to $14.6 billion from a previous estimate of $14.6 billion to $14.8 billion, weaker than the consensus of $14.72 billion.
Unity Software (U) is down more than -4% after BTIG downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $25.
Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) is down more than -3% after reporting Q2 provision for credit losses of $16.5 million, well above the consensus of $4.31 million.
AT&T (T) is down more than -1% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.97-$2.07, below the consensus of $2.09.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year net income forecast to $1.64 billion to $1.68 billion from a previous forecast of $1.71 billion to $1.75 billion.
Earnings Reports (7/23/2025)
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Amphenol Corp (APH), AT&T Inc (T), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), CSX Corp (CSX), Fiserv Inc (FI), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Globe Life Inc (GL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), International Business Machine (IBM), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Lennox International Inc (LII), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Moody's Corp (MCO), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), NVR Inc (NVR), O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), Rollins Inc (ROL), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), TE Connectivity PLC (TEL), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), United Rentals Inc (URI).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Supported as US Announces a Trade Deal with Japan

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (Symbol: IVE) where we have detected an approximate $109.4 million dollar outflow -- that's a 0.3% decrease week over week (from 200,400,000 to 199,850,000). Among the largest underlying components of IVE, in trading today Capital One Financial Corp (Symbol: COF) is up about 2.1%, Gilead Sciences Inc (Symbol: GILD) is up about 1.6%, and Danaher Corp (Symbol: DHR) is up by about 3.6%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the IVE Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of IVE, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, IVE's low point in its 52 week range is $165.4463 per share, with $206.63 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $199.31. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

IVE, COF, GILD, DHR: ETF Outflow Alert

Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP. (COF). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, COF rates highest using our Multi-Factor Investor model based on the published strategy of Pim van Vliet. This multi-factor model seeks low volatility stocks that also have strong momentum and high net payout yields.
CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP. (COF) is a large-cap value stock in the Consumer Financial Services industry. The rating using this strategy is 100% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
Detailed Analysis of CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP.
More Information on Pim van Vliet
About Pim van Vliet: In investing, you typically need to take more risk to get more return. There is one major exception to this in the factor investing world, though. Low volatility stocks have been proven to outperform their high volatility counterparts, and do so with less risk. Pim van Vliet is the head of Conservative Equities at Robeco Asset Management. His research into conservative factor investing led to the creation of this strategy and the publication of the book "High Returns From Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox". Van Vliet holds a PhD in Financial and Business Economics from Erasmus University Rotterdam.
Additional Research Links
About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

COF Factor-Based Stock Analysis

Capital One COF delivered better-than-expected second-quarter results, with the acquisition of Discover Financial Services (which closed on May 18) emerging as a key growth catalyst.
Adjusted earnings of $5.48 per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.83 and jumped 35% from the prior quarter. Further, COF’s total net revenues surged 25% to $12.49 billion and surpassed the consensus estimate of $12.22 billion.
Relatively higher interest rates and resilient consumer card spending despite uncertainties related to Trump’s trade policies supported the company’s quarterly results.
Capital One Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Growing investor confidence in the Discover buyout seems to have caused Capital One shares to gain 4% in after-hours trading yesterday.
Robust Credit Card Spending, Discover Deal Aid COF’s Revenues
Following the Discover buyout, COF became the biggest U.S. credit card issuer by balances. The company acquired $98.3 billion of domestic card loans and $9.9 billion of personal loans as part of the Discover acquisition. On a sequential basis, the company’s credit card loan portfolio jumped a whopping 72% to $269.7 billion, driven by persistent demand for credit card loans.
Interest on credit card loans is significantly higher than that on mortgages and other types of loans. So, this, along with lower rates paid on deposits, supported Capital One’s NII and margins. As such, quarterly NII improved 25% from the prior quarter to $10 billion and net interest income (NIM) expanded 69 basis points (bps) to 7.62%. Management expects the full quarter benefit from the Discover acquisition to drive an additional 40-bp rise in NIM.
Consumer spending in the United States, which drives the bulk of Capital One’s credit card loan portfolio, was resilient in the second quarter. While inflationary pressures amid ambiguity over tariff policies dampened discretionary purchases, spending on essential goods and services held firm. As a result, purchase volume on Capital One credit cards surged 28% sequentially to $201.5 billion. This included $26.5 billion of Discover purchase volume.
Driven by increased card spend during the quarter, Capital One's non-interest income, which primarily consists of net interchange income and service charges and other customer-related fees, surged 26% to $2.5 billion.
Other Factors That Influenced Capital One’s Q2 Earnings
Following the Discover acquisition, Capital One built an initial allowance of $8.8 billion. Hence, the company’s provision for credit losses jumped significantly from the last quarter to $11.4 billion.
Further, COF’s non-interest expenses increased 18% to $6.99 billion. This included Discover acquisition-related charges and certain other non-recurring items. Excluding these, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company reported adjusted expenses of $6.4 billion, up 14%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Despite robust top-line growth and the Discover buyout, Capital One’s bottom line weakened because of several one-time charges. Hence, the company posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in the second quarter against net income of $1.4 billion in the prior quarter.
Details About Capital One’s Discover Integration Plan
On theearnings conference call Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank said, “We certainly are very bullish about the deal and the economics and earnings power and opportunities on the other side.”
Fairbank highlighted the early progress in integrating Discover and emphasized the strategic alignment of the two platforms as a key driver in Capital One’s transformation into a fully integrated banking and global payments leader. Further, he noted Capital One is on track to deliver the $2.5 billion in total net synergies, while signaling integration charges are expected to exceed the previously announced $2.8 billion.
Overall, management reaffirmed that the combined company’s earnings potential and strategic opportunities in payments and global network expansion remain in line with prior expectations, supported by continued investments in technology, data and artificial intelligence (AI).
Performance & Earnings Date of COF’s Peers
Ally Financial’s ALLY second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 99 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. Further, the bottom line reflected a jump of 35.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Results benefited from a rise in net finance revenues and other revenues. Further, lower non-interest expenses and reduced provision provided support. However, a decline in net finance receivables and loans and deposits was the undermining factor for ALLY.
Navient NAVI is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2025 results on July 30.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for NAVI’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 29 cents. This implies a 39.6% decrease from the prior-year quarter.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Capital One Financial Corporation

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