Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages through offering burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The company also provides delivery and related services its app and website. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, CMG rates highest using our P/E/Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Peter Lynch. This strategy looks for stocks trading at a reasonable price relative to earnings growth that also possess strong balance sheets.
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is a large-cap growth stock in the Restaurants industry. The rating using this strategy is 91% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
Detailed Analysis of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
More Information on Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch Portfolio
About Peter Lynch: Perhaps the greatest mutual fund manager of all-time, Lynch guided Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund to a 29.2 percent average annual return from 1977 until his retirement in 1990, almost doubling the S&P 500's 15.8 percent yearly return over that time. Lynch's common sense approach and quick wit made him one of the most quoted investors on Wall Street. ("Go for a business that any idiot can run -- because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it," is one of his many pearls of wisdom.) Lynch's bestseller One Up on Wall Street is something of a "stocks for the everyman/everywoman", breaking his approach down into easy-to-understand concepts.
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About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Peter Lynch Detailed Fundamental Analysis - CMG

Wall Street has pushed the stock market to fresh highs in August, driven by impressive earnings growth and guidance, as well as growing optimism that the Fed will cut rates twice to close out 2025. Despite stellar climb off the market’s April lows, some great S&P 500 stocks are down big in 2025, including Chipotle and Fortinet.
The stock market bulls are trying to hold their ground near the Nasdaq’s short-term 21-day moving average heading into the final week of August, which includes Nvidia's earnings release. That said, the stock market is likely due for a larger, healthier pullback to help recalibrate valuations a bit and blow away some of the froth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Thankfully, investors don’t have to wait for the next leg down to buy strong stocks at deep discounts. Today’s Full Court Finance at Zacks explores two beaten-down S&P 500 stocks, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Fortinet, trading at least 30% below their highs that investors might want to buy as the benchmark trades near its peaks.
Both Chipotle and Fortinet remain strong companies with durable businesses that are finding support at their long-term 200-week moving averages. The 200-week moving average was one of Charlie Munger’s favorite technical indicators.
Warren Buffett’s longtime right-hand man, who passed away in 2023, once said: “If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks on the 200-week moving average, you would historically beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time.” The chart above shows that the bulls defend the 200-week at the Covid selloff, in the 2022 downturn, and the rapid selloff at the end of Q1.
This backdrop makes the two beaten-down S&P 500 stocks we dive into enticing buys heading into September.
Buy CMG Stock On the Dip for Value and Huge Upside
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG stock has dropped 37% from its June 2024 peaks on the back of fading comparable restaurant sales growth and a declining earnings outlook. CMG gapped lower in late July after its Q2 comps dropped 4% YoY. It also lowered its fiscal 2025 same-store sales guidance to flat.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Higher costs are hurting its bottom line, while customers are finally pulling back after four years of huge growth as they struggle with lingering inflation. The fast-casual burrito powerhouse is focused on highlighting its value proposition to diners. Chipotle’s typical chicken bowl or burrito costs around $10, which is less than most fast-casual rivals and many fast-food restaurants such as McDonald’s.
Despite the near-term setbacks, which include an extremely difficult to compete against stretch (it averaged 10.5% comps growth in the past four years), Chipotle remains one of the titans of the fast-casual restaurant industry that’s not going out of style. And its fresh ingredients and healthier options remain a long-term winning pitch.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG is projected to grow its revenue by 7% in 2025 and 13% next year to reach $13.67 billion (following 15% average growth in the past five years). It is expected to expand its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 8% and 18%, respectively. Plus, its earnings revisions have held up since its Q2 release after sliding for the past year.
Chipotle stock skyrocketed roughly 1,300% in the past 15 years to quadruple its industry and crush the S&P 500’s 530%. Yet its 37% drop from its highs has it lagging the benchmark in the past five years. The stock found support at its 200-week moving average and its pre-2024 breakout peaks.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The restaurant stock’s selloff, coupled with its strong earnings outlook, has it trading at a 65% discount to its highs and 29% below its median at 32X forward 12-month earnings. Along with its $43 a share price, Chipotle trades at some of its cheapest valuation levels in the past 15 years.
Is Cybersecurity Stock FTNT a Must-Buy Down 33%?
Fortinet FTNT stock tanked after it reported Q2 earnings results on August 6. The selloff was sparked by worries that Fortinet’s firewall upgrade cycle—a vital growth driver—is peaking after management revealed during itsearnings callthat it’s now 40% to 50% complete.
Investors appear concerned that FTNT’s progress hasn’t led to better financial outcomes so far and fear future expansion will be more difficult.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Thankfully, the cybersecurity standout still raised its 2025 billings guidance midpoint by $100 million, and its earnings outlook remained flat. The global cybersecurity company that provides a broad portfolio of security solutions is projected to expand its earnings by 6% in 2025 and 10% next year, on 13% and 11%, respective revenue expansion.
Fortinet’s estimates mark a slowdown compared to its recent EPS expansion, but match its 12% sales growth from last year. Plus, FTNT has topped our earnings estimate for five years in a row, and cybersecurity is only growing more important by the day in an economy where all data is digital.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FTNT is trading roughly 33% below its early 2025 highs even though is has skyrocketed 3,700% in the past 15 years vs. Tech’s 740%. The cybersecurity standout also doubled Tech in the past decade, even though Tech trades just below its all-time highs.
Fortinet found buyers at its 200-week moving average and the top of its pre-2024 breakout range. The stock also trades at historically oversold RSI levels.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The tech stock is trading over 80% below its highs and at a 50% discount to its 15-year median at 34X forward earnings. In fact, Fortinet’s fall and its strong earnings growth outlook has FTNT trading at all-time lows.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

2 S&P 500 Stocks (CMG, FTNT) Down Over 30% to Buy Now

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG has been witnessing a decline in comparable restaurant sales since the beginning of 2025, mainly due to lower customer transactions. In the first six months of 2025, the company’s comparable restaurant sales declined 2.3% against 9.1% growth in the year-ago period, mainly pressured by a 3.7% downtrend in transactions.
Although higher average checks and menu price increases are battling to keep the comps afloat, it is not proving to be sufficient. To counter this headwind and increase sales unit performance across all its restaurants, the company is engaging in several business initiatives, one of which includes enhancing its loyalty program. Launched in 2019, the Chipotle Rewards loyalty program has been scaling since then, with about 20 million loyalty members as of June 30, 2025.
CMG has been consistently enhancing and diversifying its loyalty program offerings to boost customer engagement and ramp up transactions. To add more people to its loyalty program, the company bolstered its enrollment campaigns and signage, both in restaurants and across the digital platform. It launched a three-month gamified experience with extra points, badges and prizes, named Summer of Extras, as its number of reward members reached milestones. The launch of the Summer of Extras promotion boosted customer engagement and increased transactions between June and July 2025, resulting in digital sign-ups growing 14% year over year. Besides this, for fall 2025, Chipotle has another program scheduled targeting the college population. It aims to keep engaging in sales boosting initiatives to increase customer engagement in its loyalty program and boost their frequency and spend year over year.
Loyalty program offerings, effectively amalgamated with operational efficiency, digital enhancements and marketing innovation, have the potential to boost sales trends and revenue growth in the long term.
Competitive Position of Chipotle
Loyalty programs are one of the most well-known marketing initiatives in the restaurant industry to boost customer engagement and sales trends. Chipotle faces substantial competition when it comes to offering a diversified and engaging loyalty program from key market players like McDonald’s Corporation MCD and Starbucks Corporation SBUX.
The loyalty program of McDonald’s, named MyMcDonald’s Rewards, has garnered more than 12 million sign-ups even before a national marketing push, since its launch in 2021. This boost stands on leveraging the global brand reach and app-exclusive deals, resulting in rapidly expanding engagement. With the increased digital adoption, McDonald’s is optimistic about its loyalty members’ growth trend, with the program already deployed in more than 60 markets, including the United States, Germany, Canada, the UK, Australia and France.
Notably, Starbucks’ loyalty program, Starbucks Rewards, offers tough competition to Chipotle with its nearly 34 million 90-day active U.S. members, driving nearly 60% of domestic transactions, offering a deeply personalized, app-driven ecosystem with payment, ordering and lifestyle perks. The enhanced digital perks are what drive Starbucks’ reward program among its customers. As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. ticket increased 2% as the company reduced discounted transactions by about one-third, reflecting stronger spend without heavy promotions.
CMG Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of this operator of quick-casual and fresh Mexican food restaurant chains have trended downward 15.7% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Chipotle stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.41, as evidenced by the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Trend of CMG
For 2025 and 2026, CMG’s earnings estimates have remained unchanged over the past 60 days at $1.21 and $1.42 per share, respectively. However, the estimated figures reflect 8% and 17.6% year-over-year growth, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Chipotle's Loyalty Base Reaches 20M: Will It Drive Sales Recovery?

Investors in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (Symbol: CMG) saw new options become available today, for the October 3rd expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the CMG options chain for the new October 3rd contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $42.00 strike price has a current bid of $1.22. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $42.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $40.78 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of CMG, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $42.95/share today.
Because the $42.00 strike represents an approximate 2% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 61%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 2.90% return on the cash commitment, or 24.66% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, and highlighting in green where the $42.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $44.00 strike price has a current bid of $1.34. If an investor was to purchase shares of CMG stock at the current price level of $42.95/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $44.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 5.56% if the stock gets called away at the October 3rd expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if CMG shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing CMG's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $44.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $44.00 strike represents an approximate 2% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 53%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 3.12% boost of extra return to the investor, or 26.48% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
The implied volatility in the put contract example is 39%, while the implied volatility in the call contract example is 37%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 250 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $42.95) to be 35%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

October 3rd Options Now Available For Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, CMG rates highest using our P/E/Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Peter Lynch. This strategy looks for stocks trading at a reasonable price relative to earnings growth that also possess strong balance sheets.
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is a large-cap growth stock in the Restaurants industry. The rating using this strategy is 91% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
Detailed Analysis of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
More Information on Peter Lynch
About Peter Lynch: Perhaps the greatest mutual fund manager of all-time, Lynch guided Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund to a 29.2 percent average annual return from 1977 until his retirement in 1990, almost doubling the S&P 500's 15.8 percent yearly return over that time. Lynch's common sense approach and quick wit made him one of the most quoted investors on Wall Street. ("Go for a business that any idiot can run -- because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it," is one of his many pearls of wisdom.) Lynch's bestseller One Up on Wall Street is something of a "stocks for the everyman/everywoman", breaking his approach down into easy-to-understand concepts.
Additional Research Links
About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

CMG Factor-Based Stock Analysis - Peter Lynch

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG have declined 17.6% in the past month compared with the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry’s 1.6% drop. Over the same timeframe, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500’s growth of 1.9%.
Investor sentiment surrounding Chipotle has been weighed down by a soft second-quarter performance, weaker comparable sales and concerns over consumer trade-down trends.
CMG One-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a technical perspective, CMG stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, signaling a bearish trend.
CMG Stock Trades Below 50-Day Moving Average
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the company remains fundamentally strong with a long growth runway, near-term margin pressures and cautious guidance have raised doubts about whether now is the right time to buy CMG stock. Let us take a closer look.
What’s Pressuring CMG Stock?
Investor sentiment around Chipotle has been rattled by a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, shifting consumer behavior and intensifying competition in the fast-casual dining sector. Management described the second quarter as facing one of the most difficult operating backdrops in recent history, with pressures from extraordinary year-over-year comparisons, softening confidence among low-income consumers and increased sensitivity to price. This dynamic contributed to a 4% decline in comparable sales.
Although traffic trends improved in June and July following intensified marketing efforts and promotional activity, management acknowledged that macro headwinds — such as promotional activity across the QSR industry and consumers trading down — remain persistent. These factors have not only impacted short-term traffic but also necessitated a reevaluation of Chipotle’s value communication strategy. For 2025, management anticipates comparable sales to remain roughly flat, down from the earlier projection of low-single-digit growth.
Rising input costs have further weighed on CMG’s profitability. The company expects its cost of sales to rise to the high-29% range in the third quarter of 2025. This increase reflects a 60-basis point impact from the conclusion of its Chipotle Honey Chicken limited-time offering (LTO) and an additional 40 basis points due to tariffs. Tariff-related headwinds are projected to contribute a consistent 50-basis point drag going forward, in line with previous estimates and excluding goods covered under the USMCA exemption for Mexican and Canadian imports. The company anticipates core commodity inflation to remain in the low single-digit range through the rest of the year, excluding the effects of LTOs, tariffs and cost efficiency gains.
Competition is complicating the picture. Management noted that lower-income consumers are increasingly seeking value at lower price points, such as bundled meal deals offered by quick-service rivals. Although Chipotle emphasized that its entrées are priced at a 20%-30% discount to comparable fast-casual meals, executives admitted the brand is not currently getting full credit from consumers for that value proposition. This disconnect has made it harder to drive consistent transaction growth, particularly among lower-frequency customers.
Can Chipotle Overcome the Headwinds?
Despite the recent sell-off, Chipotle remains fundamentally strong, with several levers to drive long-term growth. Management has emphasized that comps turned positive in June and early July, helped by the rollout of targeted marketing campaigns and new menu innovations. Programs like the “Summer of Extras” rewards initiative attracted millions of participants, while limited-time items such as Chipotle Honey Chicken and Adobo Ranch boosted transaction volumes and customer engagement.
Expansion remains a key growth engine. Chipotle opened 61 new restaurants in the second quarter of 2025, with the majority featuring its popular Chipotlane format. International markets are also showing promise: Canada has nearly tripled sales in five years, Europe is seeing improved economics, and Middle East locations are outperforming U.S. averages. With plans to open 315 to 345 restaurants in North America this year and a long-term target of 7,000 units, Chipotle is laying the foundation for sustained growth. Management remains confident these operational, digital and expansion initiatives will support a return to mid-single-digit comparable sales growth and help push average unit volumes beyond $4 million.
On the digital front, Chipotle continues to enhance its app and loyalty ecosystem to boost engagement. Recent updates allow for more personalized rewards, reminders and menu suggestions, and about 20 million members have been active or made a transaction in the past year. The company has also leaned into gamification with its “Summer of Extras” program, which offered bonus points, badges and prizes to loyalty members. The promotion significantly lifted participation, spending and visit frequency, and management plans to build on this momentum with a college-focused loyalty campaign this fall.
The company is also preparing to test a catering platform this fall, an area that currently accounts for 1-2% of sales compared with 5-10% for peers, suggesting a sizable runway for incremental revenues. These factors provide investors with reason to remain optimistic about CMG’s ability to regain momentum over the longer term.
CMG Stock Valuation Insights
Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at $1.21. Over the same time frame, estimates for industry players, including Brinker International, Inc. EAT, McDonald's Corporation MCD and The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE, have increased 5.4%, 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively.
CMG Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Chipotle stock is currently trading at a premium. CMG is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 32.17, well above the industry average of 25.01, reflecting an attractive investment opportunity. Other industry players, such as Brinker, McDonald's and Cheesecake Factory, have P/E ratios of 15, 23.96 and 15.43, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Thoughts on CMG Stock
Chipotle’s long-term growth story remains intact, supported by aggressive unit expansion, international momentum, and ongoing investments in digital engagement and operational efficiency. However, near-term headwinds from flat comparable sales guidance, tariff-driven cost pressures and heightened competition in the value-driven QSR space warrant caution. At a premium valuation, much of the optimism around its future growth is already reflected in the stock.
Key factors to watch include Chipotle’s ability to strengthen its value perception, sustain traffic gains from loyalty programs and offset inflationary pressures on margins. We recommend waiting for greater clarity on comparable sales recovery before adding new positions. For existing shareholders, maintaining exposure may be sensible, given Chipotle’s long runway and proven execution, but near-term volatility is likely to persist.
Chipotle currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

CMG Stock Slips 18% in a Month: Should You Act Now or Hold Steady?

Key Points
These two companies should do well despite restaurant stocks facing an uncertain near-term environment.
Chipotle's sales should rebound.
Dutch Bros continues to draw customers.
Investing in the restaurant industry presents challenges. These include changing consumer tastes and economic pressures that cause people to cut back on discretionary spending.
Right now, there's a lot of economic uncertainty, including from the administration's tariff policy. That presents short-term headwinds, including potentially higher costs and lower customer traffic.
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However, challenging times can also present a buying opportunity for certain cyclical stocks, provided investors are willing to stomach short-term volatility.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) and Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS) stock prices have moved in opposite directions this year. But both remain solid businesses with strong long-term growth potential.
1. Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) has distinguished itself from fast food chains. It serves high-quality food (e.g., without artificial colors, flavors, and preservatives) at reasonable prices. Management has also found ways to enhance the customer experience, particularly via digital ordering and Chipotlanes (drive-through lanes to pick up digital orders).
The concept has proven very successful over the years. Chipotle Mexican Grill opened its first restaurant in 1993, and it has grown to over 3,800 locations. Management continues to see a growth opportunity, opening 61 new restaurants in the second quarter, and it expects a total of 315 to 345 additional locations for the entire year.
However, same-store sales (comps) have been sluggish lately. Q2 comps dropped 4%. Unfortunately, that was driven by lower traffic, which accounted for a 4.9-percentage-point drop. Higher spending was responsible for a 0.9-percentage-point increase.
Management blamed the lower comps on larger economic pressures that impacted overall consumer spending. It noted that there was sales momentum at the end of the quarter with positive transaction volume and comps. The company expects flat comps for the year, which would show an improvement from the first half of the year.
However, the recent sales results have sent the stock price down. Chipotle's shares have dropped 27% this year (through Aug. 15), while the S&P 500 index has gained 9.7%.
It's hard to call the shares cheap, but they have become less expensive over this period. The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen from 54 to 39. The S&P 500 sells at a 30 P/E multiple.
Its offerings of fresh ingredients have proven successful. With its long-term growth potential remaining intact, a higher valuation seems warranted.
2. Dutch Bros
Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS) offers beverages and select food items at its drive-through locations. Starting modestly in 1992, it has expanded by focusing on high-quality, handcrafted beverages, quick service, and strong customer service.
The concept clearly has appealed to customers. Q2 comps increased 6.1%. People continued flocking to its locations, with traffic accounting for 3.7 percentage points of the increase. Management expects comps to increase 4.5% for the year.
A large growth opportunity remains. At the end of 2024, Dutch Bros had 982 shops (about two-thirds were franchises) across 18 states. It had 1,043 locations in 19 states at the end of June, and management plans to open at least another 100 shops this year.
The company's success and growth opportunities haven't been lost on investors. Dutch Bros' share price has gained 20.3% this year, more than twice the S&P 500's appreciation. Investors continue to expect this success to continue, with the shares trading at a P/E multiple of 175.
If this valuation makes you nervous, you can smooth out your purchase price by investing the same amount at regular intervals, a strategy called dollar-cost averaging.
Should you invest $1,000 in Chipotle Mexican Grill right now?
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Lawrence Rothman, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends Dutch Bros and recommends the following options: short September 2025 $60 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

2 No-Brainer Restaurant Stocks to Buy Right Now

Why Investors Have Soured on Restaurant Stocks

Predicting the Next Rule Breaker Buyout

In this podcast, Motley Fool retirement expert Robert Brokamp chats with Wes Moss about the financial and nonfinancial metrics and habits of the happiest retirees.
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A full transcript is below.
Where to invest $1,000 right now
When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,070%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 184% for the S&P 500.
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*Stock Advisor returns as of August 18, 2025
This podcast was recorded on August 09, 2025.
Robert Brokamp: How does the current bull market compare to those of the past? What can we learn from the happiest retirees? You're listening to the Saturday Personal Finance Edition of Motley Fool Money. I'm Robert Brokamp. This week is part 1 of my discussion with financial advisor and author Wes Moss, about his research on the financial and non-financial characteristics of a fulfilling retirement. But first, let's start with last week and money. Our first item comes from Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, who puts out an interesting report each week, and his recent edition pointed out that the current bull market in US stocks that began in October of 2022 is now 33 months old and has produced an 84% gain. No, the tariff tantrum from this past spring didn't technically end the bull market, though it came pretty close. According to Timmer, since 1960, the median bull market lasts 30 months and produces gains of 90%.
The current run is right about at the median in terms of length and gains. However, what's somewhat different this time is breadth. Not all stocks are posting extraordinary gains, and Timmer wrote that only 35% of stocks are outperforming the index. He found that only two bull markets had similarly low breadth figures, and they were the 1970-1973 rise of the so-called 50/50 and the 1998-2000 tech boom. Both of those bull markets were followed by bear markets that cut the S&P 500 value in half. This current bull market has been driven primarily by tech-oriented growth stocks with a heavy emphasis on AI related companies, which brings us to our next item, and it comes from Renaissance Macro Research, also known as RenMac, which calculated that investment in AI, including both equipment and software, has added more to GDP growth this year than consumer spending. That's really remarkable because consumer spending usually drives 70% of the economy. There are two main takeaways here, at least in my opinion. One is that investment in AI has been massive, but also that consumer spending and demand is sluggish.
To quote a recent Wall Street Journal article, "Consumer spending stagnated in the first half of this year, according to federal data issued last week and the CEOs of Chipotle, Kroger, and Procter & Gamble, among others, who are telling investors that their customers are more strapped or appear to feel that way." The bottom line here is that if it were not for capital expenditures related to AI, both the stock market and the economy would not be looking nearly as rosy. Now we come to the number of the week, or actually numbers, and they are 3.3%-5.3%. That is the range of annualized returns that Vanguard expects from US equities over the next decade, according to a recent report. That, of course, is well below the historical long-term average of 10% and below the 15.3% the S&P 500 has returned on average over the last five years. The reason for Vanguard's lower expectations while US stocks trade well above the firm's estimate of the market's fair value. However, they do expect returns that are around 2% points higher from value stocks, small-cap stocks, and non-US developed stocks. Now, Vanguard isn't alone with their muted expectations. Just about any firm that estimates the future returns from stocks expects that they will be below average. That includes some of my colleagues here at The Motley Fool, specifically the analysts in our Hidden Gem service. In a recent article, they provided their estimate for returns from the S&P 500 for the next five years, and their range is 7.8%-8.2%. More optimistic than Vanguard's expectations for the next decade, but below average nonetheless for various reasons, including that US equities account for 60% of the value of all equities worldwide, that is more than 10% points above the historical norm. The S&P 500's PE ratio is more than 30% above the historical average.
Then there's the Buffett indicator, which is the ratio of the entire value of the stock market to GDP. It's like a price-to-sales ratio for the market. The current reading is 210%, which is more than twice the historical norm. What should you do with all these prognostications? Well, there's no guarantee they'll be right. It's very difficult to predict what the market will do, and many firms have expected sub-average returns from US stocks for the past several years, and, frankly, they've been proven wrong. Here's why I think these estimates matter. Over the last couple of Saturday episodes, I've encouraged you to use online tools to calculate whether you're on track to reach your financial goals. I named a couple of specific tools to consider. But whatever tool you use, you generally have to input a projected return on your investments. At current valuations, I think it's likely too optimistic to assume you'll earn 10% a year over the next 5-10 years. When I run my numbers, I assume my investments will earn 5%-6% while I'm still working and then around 5% in retirement. Then I adjust my monthly savings requirements accordingly. I hope my portfolio has higher returns, but I don't want my retirement or other goals relying on double-digit annual gains. Next up, my discussion with Wes Moss when Motley Fool Money returns.
We all want a happy, healthy, and wealthy retirement. But what does a research say about what it takes to achieve those goals? Well, here to tell us is Wes Moss, a certified financial planner practitioner, the host of the Retire Sooner podcast, and the author of What the Happiest Retirees Know. Wes, welcome to Motley Fool Money.
Wes Moss: Robert, so good to be here. Very good. Excited.
Robert Brokamp: Well, I'm glad to hear that. I'm excited for you to share a lot of what you've learned because you've been working on this for years. You've been doing multiple surveys of retirees and near retirees for many years. Plus, you've been an actual financial advisor for more than two decades, and you've determined that the happiest retirees tend to have certain habits, have certain characteristics. But let's start with what inspired you to start doing this research.
Wes Moss: When I was a new dad, I remember there was a popular book, and it was called Happiest Baby on the Block. Supposedly, that book helped you soothe your baby and make everything easier.
Robert Brokamp: Did it work for you?
Wes Moss: No, it didn't work. [laughs] When I first heard this, I thought, well, how do they know if the baby's happy? They didn't. You can't ask a baby. You can't talk to a baby. I guess, of course, the parent can determine, yeah, my kid was happy. They cried less than they maybe otherwise would. But it just reminded me or made me think, well, why wouldn't somebody write a book called The Happiest Retiree on the Block? What if we were to be able to go talk to 1,000 or 2,000 retirees, divide them up into two camps, happy versus unhappy, and then study the habits between those two groups? That was the original idea. It came from a baby book. It morphed into a long, really journey. It's been 15 plus years now of researching the financial habits, the consumer habits, the lifestyle habits, the social habits, all together that tips folks, if we look at America as a population. My most recent research study, again, is mapped to the US census, so it's statistically significant differences between these two very different groups, and we all want to end up in the happy, not the unhappy retiree group. I've continued that research, and I think it's a powerful guide to have the financial side of retirement, which you do such an amazing job of simplifying and having people be able to digest it and understand it. But then pairing all the lifestyle social community side and putting those two together so that we have this fruitful free retirement.
Robert Brokamp: Let's start with a topic that probably first comes to mind for most people, which of course is money. How much in terms of just liquid investable assets? Not net worth, but the liquid investable assets, do the happiest retirees tend to have?
Wes Moss: When I first did this, again, let's go back approximately 15 years. The way I looked at it in the very first book I did about this called You Can Retire Sooner Than You Think: Five Money Secrets of the Happiest Retirees. There was this inflection point that I found, and you can look at the data a million different ways, but you can look at the average, you can look at the median. I found that the median, at that time, this is, again, a long time ago, the median to crossover from the unhappy to the happy group, well, the median was $500,000. Now, that's not net worth. That's liquid retirement assets. That was the number I used for a very long time. That was controversy in a couple of ways. One, I remember getting feedback. That's so much money. That's for rich people. It takes forever to get to that. Then on the other side of the equation was that's not nearly enough. But 500K, that's not going to do it. The number, I don't know if some people didn't like the number. Some people like the number. That was where I stood for a long period of time. If you go back to, let's say, 2013, and you'd been in a balanced fund, let's call it a 60/40 allocation, 60 stock, 40 bond, and you withdrew funds from that. You started with 500, you took out 4% rule, so you started with 20K and ratchet it up for inflation. That would be approximately, depending on where you are, but I'm generalizing here, you wouldn't have 500. You would have taken out about 300, and you'd still have about $1 million left.
Robert Brokamp: Wow.
Wes Moss: As low as that sounded back then, it very likely work if somebody had taken that approach. Again, there's lots of variation there, but it's very realistic that that could have worked out. Today, I look at it in a more nuanced way. The way the research now in the most recent study is a little more nuanced, and I think of it in three zones. Here, it's the red, yellow, and green zone. The happy retirees want to get to the green zone. When it comes to liquid net worth, those numbers, I look at them a little differently today. You're in the red zone, meaning that you're well below the happiness baseline in America. It's like the opposite of Alpha. You're way under the happiness base zone if you have less than 100K. That makes sense. The yellow zone from 100K to just under a million, happiness levels are around the US baseline, slightly above, but just let's call it normal happiness in America. But once you cross into the green zone, which is the million-dollar category and up $3 million category, that's where you see happiness levels well above the US happiness baseline. That is the zone I want people to really focus in on. Today, that number is $1 million plus. It used to be 500, but we all know we've gone through massive inflation, so it makes sense that those numbers would be bigger or more significant, but that's where we stand today. I also look at income data, again, getting into that green zone for American families. This is for all income combined. Social Security, pension, whether you have rental income, etc, plus investment income, we want to get to the 100K and above. That's what gets us to the green zone. There's a lot of other financial habits, but those are two of the big ones that get us from red to yellow, and eventually to green, and that's where we want to be.
Robert Brokamp: Those are investable assets. What else did you learn about other ways that the happiest retirees manage their money apart from just their portfolios?
Wes Moss: There's a couple of things. One, I've always been interested in mortgage data because Americans have a weight, and it's really our biggest bill. You could argue that healthcare can be similar or higher nowadays. But really, for most of our lives, a mortgage and paying for our shelter is the number one big bill. What I found in the most recent data is that either a paid off mortgage or a mortgage that's going to be paid off or scheduled to be paid off within nine years or less, which is still a fair amount of time. That's what gets people into that happiness green zone. There's something very powerful about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Multiple and diversified income streams. Happy retirees tend to have more and different streams of income, so that they have diversification of how they're getting paid. Those are two financial habits beyond a portfolio that really, really tip the scales toward financial peace and feeling confident in financial decisions.
Robert Brokamp: I think one underappreciated aspect of having the mortgage paid off by the time you retire is that it lowers your expenses. In retirement, the more your expenses, the more you have to take out of your portfolio, the more that you have to take from your traditional IRA, which increases your taxes. If you have a $2,000 mortgage, you're paying $24,000 a year. You take $24,000 out of your traditional IRA, you've just bumped up your tax bill by over $5,000 if you're in the 22% tax bracket. You did that this year. The following year, you have to pay that tax bill. Where's that money going to come from? You have to take more money out of your traditional IRA, which will affect your tax bill the following year.
Wes Moss: Exactly.
Robert Brokamp: The real value to going into retirement with lower expenses, because you can leave more of your money alone.
Wes Moss: Keeping your tax bracket as low as possible. The other thing, Robert, that I think is really impacts almost all of us, and was really eye-opening from the last research study I did, is that people are very afraid of running out of money in America. I see it at every asset level. Now, naturally, as you would expect, the percentage of people worried about "Running out of money goes down as asset levels go up." But it's still really prevalent, even in the million-dollar category. Almost 50% of Americans that have $1 million or more, are worried about running out of money. Even in the three million-plus category, still one in four people worried one of their top financial fears is running out of money. Obviously, it's not just about having a larger nest egg and lots of cushion. There's more to it than that. That's what was so eye-opening about the most recent research I did is that that doesn't three million plus doesn't necessarily solve that fear and anxiety of running out, or it doesn't solve it for everybody. There's more to the story.
Robert Brokamp: It's time for our get it done segment. Now, you surely heard the phrase cold, hard, cash. Harkens back to the days when cash came mostly in the form of coins. In fact, the roots of the phrase go back as far as the 1600s. But as far as I'm concerned, cash is warm and cozy, like a comfortable bed at the end of a long day. Now, I know that cash isn't very exciting. Perhaps it might help to reframe it in terms of the many benefits it provides. You can think of it as dry powder, a means to buy stocks when the market is down. Portfolio flotation device because it holds up your portfolio when most investments are sinking. It could be a family protection plan, a source of funds in case of income disruption or expense eruption, or you can just think of it as a heated blanket because it can help you sleep at night. Oh, that's said, there's a lot of cash out there, not earning very much. According to the FDIC, here are the average interest rates on typical bank products. For checking account, the average rate is 0.07%. Savings account is 0.38%, one-year CD 1.63%, and three-year CD 1.34%. Dear listener, you can do much better. With a little effort, you should be able to earn close to or above 4% on many baking products. Several websites highlight higher-yielding options. We have one here at The Motley Fool, which you can visit by going to fool.com/money/banks. Then there's the cash in your brokerage account. The default cash option may be paying you little to nothing.
Check with your broker to see if you have access to a higher-yielding sweep account. Other options to consider are money market funds, individual treasury bills, or ETFs that invest in treasury bills, such as the iShares 0-3-month treasury bond ETF with the ticker SGOV. Just keep in mind that funds, ETFs, T-bills, bonds in general they might not be quite as liquid as cash, so it might take a day or two for a sell order to settle. Also, they aren't backed by the FDIC, as most cash products are that you get from a bank. Now, as you may have read, there's a lot of drama these days about if and when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. The futures market currently predicts that a 0.75% reduction in the Fed funds rate is the likeliest scenario by the end of 2025. If that happens, rates on cash accounts with variable rates, such as savings accounts, money markets, those are going to head lower. It might make sense to lock in current rates with some of your cash allocation by buying CDs or individual treasuries. Plus, keep in mind that treasuries have the added benefit of being free of state income taxes. That's the show. Make sure you tune in next Saturday for part 2 of my discussion with Wes Moss.
Thanks to Dan Boyd, who's the engineer for this episode. As always, people on the show may have interest in the stocks or funds they talk about. The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. But don't buy or sell investments based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our Fool advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. I'm Robert Brokamp. Fool On, everybody.
Robert Brokamp has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends Kroger and recommends the following options: short September 2025 $60 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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