Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Alumina and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets; and flat-rolled aluminum in the form of sheet, which is sold primarily to customers that produce beverage and food cans. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Alcoa looks like a company with decent profitability, but with noticeable pressure on the quality of its operating model and cash valuation. P/E of 12.58 and P/S of 1.02 are below the industry median, which supports the thesis of a relatively moderate valuation, while P/B around the median does not send a strong signal in either direction. At the same time, P/FCF of 42.04 is significantly above the industry level, meaning that free cash flow is priced expensively by the market and limits the potential for re-rating. Return on capital looks solid: ROE of 16.15% and ROI of 11.60% are above the median, while EPS and forecast EPS are also strong and improving compared with earlier periods. However, the operating picture is weaker: operating margin fell to 0.00% after double-digit levels during the year, and gross margin declined to 15.20% from higher levels earlier. This is an important signal, because margin strength usually determines earnings sustainability in the cyclical materials sector. Liquidity remains acceptable, but not comfortable: current ratio of 1.48 and quick ratio of 0.88 are below industry benchmarks, indicating a limited short-term cushion. Debt burden looks manageable, as debt/equity is 0.36 and debt is not growing aggressively, while equity and assets increased over the period. Dividend yield has declined noticeably, so the dividend argument for shareholders has become weaker than before. Revenue and net income remain substantial and generally support the investment case, but EBITDA and operating profit dynamics show that the quality of growth is not ideal. Overall, the fundamentals support a moderately positive view, but the high FCF valuation, deterioration in operating margin, and weaker liquidity call for a conservative approach to the target price.

Alcoa Corporation

Средний индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Medium index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Нейтральный рынок.

Strong index, significantly down. Neutral market.

Слабый индекс, значительно вырос. Нейтральный рынок.

Weak index, significantly up. Neutral market.

Средний индекс, незначительно вырос. Отток средств из лонгов снизился, но остается значительным.

Medium index, slightly up. The outflow of funds from longs has decreased, but remains significant.

AA appears undervalued on P/E and P/S, but weak operating margin, an expensive P/FCF, and deteriorating liquidity limit the potential for revaluation.

Shares of Vista Energy VIST rose 2.6% after reporting second-quarter 2026 revenues of $1.23 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 billion.
Shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV jumped 9.2% after reporting second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $10.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.31.
Chevron Corporation’s CVX shares rose 1.9% on energy emerging as the biggest gaining sector of the day.
Shares of Alcoa Corporation AA Inc. slid 6.1% after reporting second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $2.12 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.33.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Company News for July 20, 2026

Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Block Inc (Symbol: XYZ), where a total of 37,148 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 3.7 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 63.3% of XYZ's average daily trading volume over the past month of 5.9 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $82 strike call option expiring July 17, 2026, with 4,067 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 406,700 underlying shares of XYZ. Below is a chart showing XYZ's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $82 strike highlighted in orange:
Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) options are showing a volume of 42,156 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 4.2 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 63.3% of AA's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 6.7 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $50 strike call option expiring August 21, 2026, with 12,434 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.2 million underlying shares of AA. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $50 strike highlighted in orange:
And Howard Hughes Holdings Inc (Symbol: HHH) options are showing a volume of 2,467 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 246,700 underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 61% of HHH's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 404,380 shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $70 strike call option expiring July 17, 2026, with 610 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 61,000 underlying shares of HHH. Below is a chart showing HHH's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $70 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for XYZ options, AA options, or HHH options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Further XYZ Research:
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Friday Option Activity: XYZ, AA, HHH

For the quarter ended June 2024, Alcoa (AA) reported revenue of $2.91 billion, up 8.3% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.16, compared to -$0.35 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96 billion, representing a surprise of -1.92%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +45.45%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.11.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how Alcoa performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina: $399 versus the two-analyst average estimate of $383.76.
Average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum: $2,858 versus the two-analyst average estimate of $2,999.99.
Third-party alumina shipments in Tons: 2,267 Kmt versus 2,245.65 Kmt estimated by two analysts on average.
Third-party aluminum shipments in Tons: 677 Kmt versus 653.99 Kmt estimated by two analysts on average.
Total sales- Alumina: $1.47 billion versus $1.39 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +13.6% change.
Total sales- Aluminum: $1.90 billion versus $1.98 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +5.9% change.
Third-party sales- Bauxite: $96 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $110.07 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -15%.
Third-party sales- Alumina: $914 million versus $875.72 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +2.2% change.
Intersegment sales- Aluminum: $3 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $4.50 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -25%.
Total Third-party sales: $2.91 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $2.96 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +8.3%.
Intersegment sales- Alumina: $457 million versus $400.09 million estimated by two analysts on average.
Third-party sales- Aluminum: $1.90 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $1.97 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +6%.
View all Key Company Metrics for Alcoa here>>>
Shares of Alcoa have returned +3.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating that it could outperform the broader market in the near term.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Alcoa (AA) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp. (AA) released earnings for its second quarter that Increases, from last year
The company's earnings came in at $407 million, or $1.53 per share. This compares with $164 million, or $0.62 per share, last year.
Excluding items, Alcoa Corp. reported adjusted earnings of $562 million or $2.12 per share for the period.
The company's revenue for the period rose 31.4% to $3.966 billion from $3.018 billion last year.
Alcoa Corp. earnings at a glance (GAAP) :
-Earnings: $407 Mln. vs. $164 Mln. last year. -EPS: $1.53 vs. $0.62 last year. -Revenue: $3.966 Bln vs. $3.018 Bln last year.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Alcoa Corp. Q2 Profit Rises

(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp. (AA) will host a conference call at 5:00 PM ET on July 16, 2026, to discuss Q2 26 earnings results.
To access the live webcast, log on to https://investors.alcoa.com/home/default.aspx
To listen to the call, dial +1 (877) 883-0383 (US) or +1 (412) 902-6506 (International), Conference ID:8590507.
For a replay call, dial +1 (855) 669-9658 (US) or +1 (412) 317-0088 (International), Replay Access Code: 9420957.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Alcoa Q2 26 Earnings Conference Call At 5:00 PM ET

The following companies are expected to report earnings after hours on 07/16/2026. Visit our Earnings Calendar for a full list of expected earnings releases.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The broadcast (radio/tv) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 12 analysts that follow the stock is $0.79. This value represents a 9.72% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for NFLX is 20.47 vs. an industry ratio of -5.40, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Alcoa Corporation (AA)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The metal production company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 3 analysts that follow the stock is $2.33. This value represents a 497.44% increase compared to the same quarter last year. AA missed the consensus earnings per share in the 1st calendar quarter of 2026 by -12.5%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for AA is 7.01 vs. an industry ratio of 1.90, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The banks (southeast) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 5 analysts that follow the stock is $0.42. This value represents a 16.67% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year FNB has met analyst expectations once and beat the expectations the other three quarters. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for FNB is 11.03 vs. an industry ratio of 12.70.
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The oil company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 2 analysts that follow the stock is $3.15. This value represents a 472.73% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for VIST is 6.42 vs. an industry ratio of 10.70.
Independent Bank Corp. (INDB)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The bank (northeast) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 3 analysts that follow the stock is $1.77. This value represents a 41.60% increase compared to the same quarter last year. INDB missed the consensus earnings per share in the 1st calendar quarter of 2026 by -1.18%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for INDB is 11.70 vs. an industry ratio of 11.40, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The banks (southeast) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 4 analysts that follow the stock is $0.53. This value represents a 20.45% increase compared to the same quarter last year. SFNC missed the consensus earnings per share in the 3rd calendar quarter of 2025 by -4.17%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for SFNC is 11.17 vs. an industry ratio of 12.70.
DBV Technologies S.A. (DBVT)is reporting for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The biomedical (gene) company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 1 analyst that follows the stock is $-0.12. This value represents a 92.26% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2026 Price to Earnings ratio for DBVT is -41.34 vs. an industry ratio of -13.00.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

After-Hours Earnings Report for July 16, 2026 : NFLX, AA, FNB, VIST, INDB, SFNC, DBVT

Key Points
Small-cap stocks have outperformed large caps in 2026 by the widest margin since 2003.
Even after the stcong start to the year, they still trade for a steep discount to the S&P 500.
The Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF could be a smart addition to a long-term investment portfolio right now.
Over the past few years, mega-cap technology stocks have dominated the headlines, and for good reason. The performance of companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG) has made owning anything other than the Magnificent Seven feel like a mistake.
Small-cap stocks, especially those outside of the technology sector, have underperformed for years. However, the tide seems to be turning. So far in 2026, small-caps are outperforming the S&P 500 by the widest margin in over two decades, and this could be just the beginning of a longer trend.
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One low-cost ETF that investors might want to take a closer look at is the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEMKT: VBR), which holds 835 smaller companies, most of which have below-average price-to-book and price-to-earnings ratios relative to peers.
The Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
The Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF is an index fund that tracks a diversified index of smaller companies with value characteristics. As mentioned earlier, it owns 835 different stocks with a median market cap of about $10 billion.
On average, stocks held by this index fund have a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8, compared with 28.1 for the S&P 500 index. As you might expect from a value stock fund, the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF is light on technology, but has large concentrations in industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks. To name a few, the fund's larger holdings include NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), and Alcoa (NYSE: AA).
Although this is a weighted index fund, no single stock accounts for more than 1.25% of the fund's assets. And like most Vanguard ETFs, the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF has a low expense ratio (0.05%). These are the annual investment fees, which will be reflected in the fund's performance over time.
Still a good value
As I said earlier, small-cap stocks have outperformed this year, and the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF is up about 13% so far in 2026. But there is still a significant valuation gap between large-cap and small-cap stocks, and there could still be plenty of upside potential ahead.
For one thing, value stocks tend to benefit most from interest rate cuts, as they tend to carry more floating-rate debt than their large-cap counterparts. We're still in a relatively high-rate environment, plus small-cap stocks still trade at a significant discount to their historical average P/E ratios.
To be clear, I'm not saying I expect rates to fall right away or that the valuation gap between small- and large-cap stocks to close right away. But over the next several years, factors like these could lead to continued outperformance.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This Vanguard ETF Owns Stocks Nobody Is Talking About -- and That's Why It's Worth a Look

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed down -0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.03%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.54%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -0.21%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) fell -1.57%.
Stock indexes settled lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 falling from a 1-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials retreating from a new all-time high. The selloff in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks led the broader market lower on Wednesday, giving back some of their sharp rally over the past two sessions. Weaker-than-expected US economic news also weighed on stocks after the Jun ADP employment change rose less than expected and the Jun ISM manufacturing index fell more than expected.
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Losses in the overall market were limited amid strength in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks and a rally in software companies. Also, US factory price pressures eased after the Jun ISM prices paid sub-index fell more than expected to a 4-month low. Stocks also found support on comments from Fed Chair Warsh, who said price risks have come down in recent weeks and that he is determined to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target.
US MBA mortgage applications were unchanged in the week ended June 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.5% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -0.7%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -2 bp to 6.57% from 6.59% in the prior week.
The US Jun ADP employment change rose by +98,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of +120,000.
The US Jun ISM manufacturing index fell -0.7 to 53.3, weaker than expectations of 53.9. The Jun ISM prices paid sub index fell -9.1 to a 4-month low of 73.0, weaker than expectations of 77.5.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by 23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of 30%, which was more than double the 12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
WTI crude oil (CLQ26) fell more than -1% on Wednesday and posted a 4.25-month low. Crude prices came under pressure on Wednesday after a senior US administration official said that US negotiators held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump had decided against resuming a broad military campaign against Iran and told his staff that he didn't mind if the negotiations extended beyond the August 18 deadline.
The markets are discounting a 27% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.72%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high and closed up +0.4%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.59%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Wednesday closed down -10 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +0.8 bp to 4.473%. T-notes slid on Wednesday amid strengthening inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-week high of 2.256%. Losses in T-notes were limited after the Jun ADP employment change, and the Jun ISM manufacturing index came in below expectations. Also, some short covering emerged in T-notes after Fed Chair Warsh said price risks have come down in recent weeks and that he is determined to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target.
European government bond yields were mixed on Wednesday. The 10-year German bund yield rose +1.9 bp to 2.878%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 1-week high of 4.817% and finished down -0.1 bp to 4.756%.
Eurozone Jun CPI eased to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of 3.0% y/y. Jun core CPI eased to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of 2.5% y/y.
The Eurozone Jun S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 51.4 from the previously reported 51.3.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that risks to inflation and growth are now more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago, due to the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks were under pressure on Wednesday, weighing on the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closed down more than -6%. KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -1%, and SanDisk (SNDK) closed down more than -10%. Also, Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -9%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -8%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed down more than -7%, and Western Digital (WDC) closed down more than -6%.
Nebius Group NV (NBIS) closed down more than -17% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and CoreWeave (CRWV) closed down more than -13% as cloud-computing stocks fell on news that Meta Platforms is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models.
Strength in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks supported the broader market on Wednesday. Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +8% after saying it is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +3%, and Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon.com (AMZN) closed up more than +1%. Nvidia (NVDA) bucked the trend and closed down more than -1% amid weakness in chipmakers.
Software stocks rallied on Wednesday, a positive factor for the overall market. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed up more than +7%, and Atlassian Corp (TEAM), ServiceNow (NOW), and Workday (WDAY) closed up more than +6%. Also, Salesforce (CRM) closed up by more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Autodesk (ADSK) closed up more than +3%, and Intuit (INTU) and Adobe Systems (ADBE) closed up more than +2%.
Alcoa (AA) closed down more than -8% after agreeing to acquire South32 Ltd.’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets in a deal worth as much as $5.6 billion.
Caterpillar (CAT) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Scion Asset Management founder Michal Burry said he shorted Caterpillar shares for the first time.
Walmart (WMT) closed down more than -3% after Cleveland Research issued a report on Walmart that said quarter-to-date trends have slowed.
General Mills (GIS) closed up more than +8% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 95 cents, stronger than the consensus of 80 cents.
FactSet Research Systems (FDS) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.53, better than the consensus of $4.43.
Fox Corp (FOXA) closed up more than +3% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to outperform from peer perform.
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) closed up more than +3% after forecasting Q4 average daily sales up +6.5% to +8.5%, the midpoint above the consensus of +6.99%.
Earnings Reports(7/2/2026)
Lindsay Corp (LNN) and National Beverage Corp (FIZZ).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Weakness in Chipmakers Drags Stock Indexes Lower

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.97%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.04%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.95%.
Stock indexes are mostly lower today as chipmakers and AI stocks fall back after their sharp rally over the past two sessions. Weaker-than-expected US economic news also weighed on stocks after the Jun ADP employment change rose less than expected and the Jun ISM manufacturing index fell more than expected.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
However, stock indexes recovered from their worst levels and are trading mixed as software stocks rallied and US factory price pressures eased after the Jun ISM prices paid sub-index fell more than expected to a 4-month low. Stocks also found support after Fed Chair Warsh said price risks have come down in recent weeks and that he is determined to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target.
US MBA mortgage applications were unchanged in the week ended June 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.5% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -0.7%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -2 bp to 6.57% from 6.59% in the prior week.
The US Jun ADP employment change rose by +98,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of +120,000.
The US Jun ISM manufacturing index fell -0.7 to 53.3, weaker than expectations of 53.9. The Jun ISM prices paid sub index fell -9.1 to a 4-month low of 73.0, weaker than expectations of 77.5.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by 23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of 30%, which was more than double the 12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is down more than -1% today and posted a 4.25-month low. Crude prices came under pressure today after a senior US administration official said that US negotiators held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump had decided against resuming a broad military campaign against Iran and told his staff that he didn't mind if the negotiations extended beyond the August 18 deadline. Energy supplies are picking up as Morgan Stanley said 35 oil and gas tankers exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, the first time the level returned to the 30-to-40 range typical before the US-Iran war started in February.
The markets are discounting a 29% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.76%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high and closed up +0.4%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.59%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Tuesday are down -6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.9 bp to 4.459%. T-notes are sliding today amid strengthening inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-week high of 2.255%. Losses in T-notes are limited after the Jun ADP employment change and the Jun ISM manufacturing index came in below expectations. Also, some short covering emerged in T-notes after Fed Chair Warsh said price risks have come down in recent weeks and that he is determined to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.5 bp to 2.884%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-week high of 4.817% and is up +2.0 bp to 4.776%.
Eurozone Jun CPI eased to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of 3.0% y/y. Jun core CPI eased to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of 2.5% y/y.
The Eurozone Jun S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 51.4 from the previously reported 51.3.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that risks to inflation and growth are now more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago, due to the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Swaps are discounting a 5% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, leading the broader market lower. SanDisk (SNDK) is down more than -10%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -9%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC) are down more than -8%, and Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -7%. In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are down more than -6%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are down more than -5%.
Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is down more than -16% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and CoreWeave (CRWV) is down more than -14% as cloud-computing stocks are falling on news that Meta Platforms is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models.
Software stocks are climbing today, a positive factor for the overall market. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +9%, and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is up more than +8%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +6%, and Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Autodesk (ADSK) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +4%, and Microsoft (MSFT), Datadog (DDOG), and Adobe Systems (ADBE) are up more than +3%.
Alcoa (AA) is down more than -10% after agreeing to acquire South32 Ltd.’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets in a deal worth as much as $5.6 billion.
Caterpillar (CAT) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Scion Asset Management founder Michal Burry said he shorted Caterpillar shares for the first time.
Kroger (KR) is down more than -2% after agreeing to acquire Giant Eagle Inc. for about $1.65 billion.
Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after saying it is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models.
General Mills (GIS) is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 95 cents, stronger than the consensus of 80 cents.
FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is up more than +6% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.53, better than the consensus of $4.43.
Fox Corp (FOXA) is up more than +5% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to outperform from peer perform.
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is up more than +4% after forecasting Q4 average daily sales up +6.5% to +8.5%, the midpoint above the consensus of +6.99%.
Earnings Reports(7/1/2026)
FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), Franklin Covey Co (FC), General Mills Inc (GIS), Greenbrier Cos Inc/The (GBX), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM), UniFirst Corp/MA (UNF).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Mixed on Chipmaker Weakness and Easing US Price Pressures

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.47%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.09%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.40%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.99%.
Stock indexes are under pressure today as chipmakers and AI stocks fall back after their sharp rally over the past two sessions. Signs of a slowdown in the US labor market also weighed on stocks after the Jun ADP employment change rose by +98,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of +120,000. Stocks remained lower after Fed Chair Warsh provided no guidance on interest rates at a meeting of central bankers in Portugal today.
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US MBA mortgage applications were unchanged in the week ended June 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.5% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -0.7%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -2 bp to 6.57% from 6.59% in the prior week.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by 23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of 30%, which was more than double the 12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is down nearly -1% today and has posted a 4.25-month low. Crude prices came under pressure today after a senior US administration official said US negotiators held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump had decided against resuming a broad military campaign against Iran and told his staff that he didn't mind if the negotiations extended beyond the August 18 deadline. Energy supplies are picking up as Morgan Stanley said 35 oil and gas tankers exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, the first time the level returned to the 30-to-40 range typical before the US-Iran war started in February.
The markets are discounting a 36% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.82%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high and closed up +0.4%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.59%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Tuesday are down -12 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.8 bp to 4.493%. T-notes are sliding today amid strengthening inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-week high of 2.255%. Losses in T-notes are limited after the Jun ADP employment change came in below expectations.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.9 bp to 2.899%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-week high of 4.817% and is up +3.6 bp to 4.793%.
Eurozone Jun CPI eased to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of 3.0% y/y. Jun core CPI eased to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of 2.5% y/y.
The Eurozone Jun S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 51.4 from the previously reported 51.3.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that risks to inflation and growth are now more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago, due to the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Swaps are discounting a 6% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, leading the broader market lower. SanDisk (SNDK) and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down more than -7%, and Lam Research (LRCX) is down more than -6%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron Technology (MU) are down more than -5%, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are down more than -4%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Intel (INTC), and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -3%.
Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is down more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and CoreWeave (CRWV) is down more than -10% as cloud-computing stocks are falling on news that Meta Platforms is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models.
Software stocks are climbing today, a positive factor for the overall market. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are up more than +5%, and Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Autodesk (ADSK), Datadog (DDOG), Intuit (INTU), ServiceNow (NOW), and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +3%, and Adobe Systems (ADBE) is up more than +2%.
Alcoa (AA) is down more than -9% after agreeing to acquire South32 Ltd.’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets in a deal worth as much as $5.6 billion.
Caterpillar (CAT) is down more than -2% after Scion Asset Management founder Michal Burry said he shorted Caterpillar shares for the first time.
Kroger (KR) is down more than -1% after agreeing to acquire Giant Eagle Inc. for about $1.65 billion.
General Mills (GIS) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 95 cents, stronger than the consensus of 80 cents.
Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +7% after saying it is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models.
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is up more than +6% after forecasting Q4 average daily sales up +6.5% to +8.5%, the midpoint above the consensus of +6.99%.
FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.53, better than the consensus of $4.43.
Fox Corp (FOXA) is up more than +3% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to outperform from peer perform.
Oklo Inc (OKLO) is up more than +2% after announcing that the US Department of Energy approved the final Documented Safety Analysis for the company’s Isotopes Groves Isotope Test reactor in Texas.
Earnings Reports(7/1/2026)
FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), Franklin Covey Co (FC), General Mills Inc (GIS), Greenbrier Cos Inc/The (GBX), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM), UniFirst Corp/MA (UNF).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Alcoa Corporation

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