Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces renewable diesel and naphtha under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

Valero Energy Corporation

Key Points
Acquired 86,407 shares of Atmos Energy; estimated trade value of approximately $14.75 million
Transaction value represents 3.44% of Paradiem’s reportable U.S. equity assets under management
Post-trade stake: 86,407 shares valued at $14.75 million as of September 30, 2025
Atmos Energy now accounts for 3.44% of fund AUM as of September 30, 2025, placing it outside the fund’s top five holdings
Image source: Getty Images
On October 17, 2025, Paradiem, LLC disclosed a new position in Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO), acquiring 86,407 shares in a trade estimated at approximately $14.75 million.
The transaction value represents 3.44% of Paradiem’s reportable U.S. equity assets under management
The post-trade stake is 86,407 shares valued at $14.75 million as of September 30, 2025
Atmos Energy now accounts for 3.44% of fund AUM as of September 30, 2025, placing it just outside the fund’s top five holdings.
What happened
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission dated October 17, 2025, Paradiem, LLC established a new position in Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO). The firm purchased 86,407 shares, with the estimated trade valued at approximately $14.75 million. The fund reported 68 total positions after the quarter.
What else to know
This is a new position for Paradiem, LLC and now represents 3.44% of its reportable U.S. equity assets under management.
Top holdings after the filing:
LRCX: $27.44 million (6.4% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
TEL: $19.53 million (4.55% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
VLO: $17.87 million (4.17% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
LMT: $16.13 million (3.76% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
CAT: $15.79 million (3.7% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
As of October 17, 2025, shares of Atmos Energy were priced at $176.41, up 22.7% for the year ended October 17, 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11.27 percentage points over the past year (252 trading days).
Company Overview
Price (as of market close October 17, 2025)
$176.41
Market Capitalization
$28.32 billion
Revenue (TTM)
$4.62 billion
Net Income (TTM)
$1.16 billion
Company Snapshot
Atmos Energy is a leading regulated natural gas utility with a significant presence in the U.S. Its focus on essential utility services and stable customer base underpins a resilient business model within the regulated utilities sector.
Atmos Energy provides regulated natural gas distribution, pipeline, and storage services across eight U.S. states, with approximately three million customers and extensive underground infrastructure. The company owned 71,921 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. (as of September 30, 2021)
The company generates revenue primarily through regulated distribution of natural gas and ancillary pipeline services.
Atmos Energy serves residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers, focusing on reliable energy delivery and infrastructure management in its core markets.
Foolish take
Paradiem's $14.75 million investment in Atmos Energy might look routine, but it most certainly signals where smart money is looking for stability. When markets swing between excitement and anxiety, reliable cash flow businesses often become the quiet winners.
Atmos Energy is a regulated natural-gas utility serving about three million customers across eight states. The company earns predictable and government-approved returns for providing essential services that households and businesses rely on every day. Its size gives it efficiency and bargaining power with regulators, and that in turns help fund ongoing upgrades for safety and capacity. With roughly seventy thousand miles of distribution and transmission mains, Atmos Energy's network forms a moat that would be costly and difficult to replicate.
The heart of Atmos Energy's focus is straightforward: expand and modernize infrastructure, enhance safety measures, and return cash to shareholders through a consistently rising dividend. This combination has helped Atmos Energy outperform the S&P 500 over the past year while preserving the stability investors prize in volatile markets.
For long-term investors, Atmos Energy is a textbook study in how stability pays. By delivering a service people rely on daily and reinvesting with discipline, the company turns predictability into lasting performance.
Glossary
Stake: The ownership interest or investment a fund or individual holds in a company.
Assets Under Management (AUM): The total market value of investments managed by a fund or investment firm.
Regulated Utility: A company whose prices and operations are overseen by government agencies to ensure fair service.
Distribution (natural gas): The process of delivering natural gas from pipelines to end customers, such as homes and businesses.
Pipeline Services: Services related to the transportation and management of energy products through pipelines.
Ancillary Services: Additional services provided by utilities beyond their primary function, often supporting reliability and infrastructure.
Position (in a fund): The amount of a particular security or investment held by a fund or investor.
Outperforming: Achieving a higher return or better performance than a benchmark or comparable group.
TTM: The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.
Transmission Mains: Large pipelines that transport natural gas over long distances to distribution networks.
Public Authority Customers: Government or municipal entities that purchase services from a utility.
Resilient Business Model: A company structure designed to maintain stable performance despite economic or market changes.
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Eric Trie has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Lam Research. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Atmos Energy Keeps Proving That Stability Wins Over Volatility

Oceaneering International, Inc. OII reported an adjusted profit of 55 cents per share for the third quarter of 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents. Moreover, the bottom line surpassed the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of 36 cents. This was due to strong year-over-year operating income from its Manufactured Products, Offshore Projects Group, Integrity Management & Digital Solutions and Aerospace and Defense Technologies segments.
Total revenues were $742.9 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $710 million and increased approximately 9.3% from the year-ago quarter’s $679.8 million, due to the strong revenue contribution from OII’s Subsea Robotics, Manufactured Products, Offshore Projects Group and Aerospace and Defense Technologies segments.
In the third quarter of 2025, Houston, TX-based oil and gas equipment and services company reported adjusted EBITDA of $111.1 million, a 13.2% increase year over year.
The company also repurchased 440,814 shares for approximately $10.1 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Oceaneering International, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Oceaneering International, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Oceaneering International, Inc. Quote
Segmental Information of Oceaneering
Subsea Robotics: The unit provides remotely operated submersible vehicles for drill support, vessel-based inspection, subsea hardware installation, pipeline surveys and maintenance services.
Revenues totaled $218.8 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $215.7 million. However, the top line missed our estimate of $226.4 million.
The segment also reported an operating income of $65.1 million compared with $65.7 million a year ago. However, the figure missed our estimate of $67.3 million.
The company’s segment delivered an EBITDA margin of 36% in the third quarter of 2025, remaining largely unchanged from the prior period. Revenue per day for remotely operated vehicles (“ROVs”) rose 6% to $11,254, while ROV fleet utilization declined to 65%.
Manufactured Products: The segment focuses on the manufactured products business, theme park entertainment systems and automated guided vehicles.
Revenues totaled $156.4 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $143.7 million. Additionally, the top line beat our estimate of $152.8 million.
The segment posted an operating profit of $24.7 million in the third quarter, up from the year-ago quarter’s $11.3 million. Moreover, the reported figure beat our estimate of $16.6 million.
The backlog totaled $568 million as of Sept. 30, 2025, down 15% from the same time in 2024. For the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2025, the book-to-bill ratio was 0.82.
Offshore Projects Group: This segment involves Oceaneering’s former Subsea Projects unit, excluding survey services and global data solutions, the service and rental business and ROV tooling.
Revenues increased about 15.9% to $171 million from $147.5 million in the year-ago quarter. Moreover, the figure beat our estimate of $147.7 million.
The unit’s operating income totaled $23.7 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $20.3 million. The figure also beat our estimate of $18.4 million. The company’s operating income margin held steady at 14%.
Integrity Management & Digital Solutions: This segment covers Oceaneering’s Asset Integrity unit, along with its global data solutions business.
Revenues of $70.8 million decreased from the year-ago quarter’s $73.6 million. The figure also missed our estimate of $73.7 million.
The segment reported an operating income of $2.8 million, up from the prior-year quarter’s $0.7 million. However, the figure also missed our projection of $5.6 million.
Aerospace and Defense Technologies: The segment is engaged in Oceaneering’s government business, which focuses on defense subsea technologies, marine services and space systems.
Revenues totaled $125.9 million, up from $99.2 million recorded in the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of $109.4 million.
The operating income increased to $16.6 million from $12.2 million in the year-ago quarter. However, it missed our estimate of $18.5 million. Operating income margin improved to 13%, demonstrating robust profitability.
OII’s Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet
The capital expenditure in the third quarter, including acquisitions, totaled $31.4 million.
As of Sept. 30, OII had cash and cash equivalents worth $506 million and $497.5 million, respectively, along with a long-term debt of about $486 million. The debt-to-total capital was 34.7%.
Outlook of Oceaneering
This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company anticipates lower revenues in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. This is because improvements in Subsea Robotics (“SSR”) and ADTech will only partially offset the decline in international Offshore Projects Group (“OPG”) projects. The company anticipates consolidated EBITDA will be between $80 million and $90 million.
For SSR, the company expects increased revenues and operating income, with the EBITDA margin expected to be in the mid-to-upper 30% range. This improvement is based on higher ROV revenue per day and better utilization in the survey group, with projects starting in the U.S. Gulf, Europe and West Africa.
For Manufactured products, the company expects significantly higher operating income despite lower revenues. This is due to better conversion of higher-margin backlog and cost reductions in non-energy products.
For OPG, the company anticipates a significant decrease in revenues and operating income. This is because there will be no large-scale international intervention or installation projects like in the fourth quarter of 2024. Lower vessel activity levels in the U.S. Gulf and changes in project timing will also contribute to the decline. The company expects one charter in the international market to expire during the quarter and does not plan to renew it due to expected lower activity.
For IMDS, the company expects both revenues and operating income to decrease significantly due to lower activity levels.
For ADTech, OII anticipates a significant increase in both revenues and operating income, driven by higher activity in the Defense business. The company expects unallocated expenses to be around $45 million.
For the full year of 2025, the company anticipates generating adjusted EBITDA between $391 million and $401 million. Based on strong free cash flow in the third quarter, the company is confident in maintaining the full-year guided range of $110 million to $130 million.
The company expects consolidated EBITDA for the full year 2026 to be between $390 million and $440 million. OII anticipates free cash flow generation to remain consistent with 2025 levels. Additionally, the company expects share repurchase activity to continue.
Oceaneeringexpects Subsea Robotics to experience stable ROV utilization with improved pricing and an increase in survey volume. For Manufactured Products, the company anticipates improved operating income and margins, despite a decrease in revenues, thanks to backlog conversion and cost efficiencies. In the Offshore Projects Group, the company expects a decrease in both revenues and operating income, driven by project mix and timing. For IMDS, Oceaneeringexpects both revenues and operating income to increase.
Lastly, in ADTech, the company anticipates significant growth in both revenues and operating income, with stable margins, largely driven by large-scale defense projects and international opportunities.
Important Earnings at a Glance
While we have discussed OII’s third-quarter results in detail, let us take a look at three other key reports in this space.
Denver, CO-based oil and gas equipment and services company, Liberty Energy Inc. LBRT, posted a third-quarter 2025 adjusted net loss of 6 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 1 cent. Moreover, the bottom line decreased sharply from the year-ago quarter’s profit of 45 cents. The company's underperformance can be attributed to macroeconomic headwinds accompanied by a slowdown in the industry’s frac activity and market pricing pressure.
As of Sept. 30, Liberty Energy had approximately $13.4 million in cash and cash equivalents. The pressure pumper’s long-term debt of $253 million represented a debt-to-capitalization of 10.9%.
San Antonio, TX-based oil and gas refining and marketing company,Valero Energy Corporation VLO, posted third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.66 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.16 per share. Better-than-expected quarterly results can be primarily attributed to an increase in refining margins, higher ethanol margins and lower total cost of sales.
The company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. As of Sept. 30, 2025, it had a total debt of $8.4 billion and finance-lease obligations of $2.2 billion.
Houston, TX-based oil and gas equipment and services company, Halliburton Company HAL, posted third-quarter 2025 adjusted net income per share of 58 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents. The outperformance primarily reflects successful cost reduction initiatives. However, the bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of 73 cents due to softer activity in North America.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had approximately $2 billion in cash/cash equivalents and $7.2 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 41.1.
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Oceaneering Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

Fintel reports that on October 24, 2025, TD Cowen maintained coverage of Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) with a Hold recommendation.
Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 1.50% Upside
As of September 29, 2025, the average one-year price target for Valero Energy is $173.62/share. The forecasts range from a low of $135.56 to a high of $210.00. The average price target represents an increase of 1.50% from its latest reported closing price of $171.05 / share.
See our leaderboard of companies with the largest price target upside.
The projected annual revenue for Valero Energy is 106,588MM, a decrease of 8.55%. The projected annual non-GAAP EPS is 7.34.
What is the Fund Sentiment?
There are 2,446 funds or institutions reporting positions in Valero Energy. This is an increase of 45 owner(s) or 1.87% in the last quarter. Average portfolio weight of all funds dedicated to VLO is 0.28%, an increase of 8.47%. Total shares owned by institutions decreased in the last three months by 2.36% to 303,364K shares. The put/call ratio of VLO is 1.07, indicating a bearish outlook.
What are Other Shareholders Doing?
Charles Schwab Investment Management holds 11,725K shares representing 3.77% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 11,438K shares , representing an increase of 2.45%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in VLO by 3.80% over the last quarter.
Price T Rowe Associates holds 11,643K shares representing 3.75% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 10,795K shares , representing an increase of 7.28%. The firm increased its portfolio allocation in VLO by 0.92% over the last quarter.
VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares holds 10,074K shares representing 3.24% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 9,941K shares , representing an increase of 1.32%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in VLO by 7.98% over the last quarter.
SCHD - Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF holds 9,045K shares representing 2.91% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 8,435K shares , representing an increase of 6.75%. The firm increased its portfolio allocation in VLO by 9.17% over the last quarter.
VFINX - Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares holds 8,890K shares representing 2.86% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 8,796K shares , representing an increase of 1.05%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in VLO by 8.61% over the last quarter.
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This story originally appeared on Fintel.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

TD Cowen Maintains Valero Energy (VLO) Hold Recommendation

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN reported a third-quarter 2025 adjusted net loss of 6 cents per share, which was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 10-cent loss. This was driven by a 48.7% year-over-year reduction in costs and expenses. However, the bottom line declined from the prior year’s breakeven level. This year-over-year deterioration was primarily due to the poor contributions from the Drilling Products segments.
Total revenues of $1.2 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%. This was due to higher-than-expected revenues from Completion Services. Revenues of Completion Services beat the consensus mark by 2%. However, the top line decreased 14% year over year. This underperformance can be attributed to the decrease in year-over-year revenue contribution from Drilling Services, Completion Services and Other Services segments.
PTEN’s board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of 8 cents per share to its common shareholders of record as of Dec. 1, 2025. The payout, which is unchanged from the previous quarter, will be made on Dec. 15.
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Segmental Performances of Patterson
Drilling Services: Revenues in this segment totaled $380.2 million, down 10% from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $421.6 million. However, the top line marginally beat our estimation of $380.1 million.
Operating income amounted to $37.1 million compared with a loss of $34.4 million in the third quarter of 2024. Moreover, the figure beat our operating income estimate of $23.9 million. U.S. Contract Drilling operating days totaled 8,737 in the third quarter, with an average of 95 rigs deployed.
Completion Services: This segment’s revenues of $705.3 million dropped about 15% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $831.6 million. However, the metric beat our estimation of $677 million.
Operating loss totaled $27.7 million against a loss of $908.7 million in the third quarter of 2024. However, the result was wider than our model’s projected loss of $18.9 million.
Drilling Products: This segment’s revenues of $85.9 million decreased about 4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $89.1 million. Additionally, the amount missed our estimation of $88.8 million.
Operating profit reached $5.8 million, indicating a 36% decrease compared with the third quarter of 2024. The number also missed our estimate of $13 million.
Other Services: Revenues amounted to $4.6 million, down 69% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $15 million. Moreover, the figure missed our estimation of $10.6 million.
Operating profit amounted to $810,000 in contrast to a loss of $3.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, the figure beat our estimation of an operating loss of $0.2 million.
PTEN’s Capital Expenditure & Financial Position
In the reported quarter, PTEN spent $144.5 million on capital programs compared with $180.6 million in the prior-year period.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $186.9 million and long-term debt of $1.2 billion. The company’s debt-to-capitalization was 27.3%.
This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company returned $64 million to its shareholders in the third quarter of 2025. During the same period, it repurchased $34 million worth of shares.
The company reported total operating costs and expenses of $1204 million compared with $2347.9 million in the third quarter of 2024.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Patterson’s Q4 Outlook
For the fourth quarter, the company anticipates that its average rig count in the Drilling Services segment will remain in line with the third quarter, reflecting stable activity levels through the end of the year. Adjusted gross profit for this segment is expected to decrease approximately 5% compared with the third quarter.
In the Completion Services segment, the company projects adjusted gross profit to be around $85 million for the fourth quarter. Activity levels are expected to be more stable compared with the fourth quarter of last year, with less seasonality impact.
In the Drilling Products segment, the company expects a slight improvement in adjusted gross profit compared with the third quarter. Performance is anticipated to remain steady in both the United States and Canada, with higher revenues and adjusted gross profit from international operations.
Adjusted gross profit in the Other segment for the fourth quarter is expected to remain flat compared with the third quarter.
The company expects selling, general and administrative expenses to remain relatively consistent with the third quarter. Depreciation, depletion, amortization and impairment expenses are projected to be approximately $225 million.
PTEN’s capital expenditures for the fourth quarter are estimated to be around $140 million. For the full-year 2025, the company now anticipates total capital expenditures to be under $600 million, excluding the $33 million from asset sales realized through the third quarter. This revised estimate marks a reduction from earlier projections.
The company is dedicated to returning at least 50% of its annual free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Important Earnings at a Glance
While we have discussed PTEN’s third-quarter results in detail, let us take a look at three other key reports in this space.
Denver, CO-based oil and gas equipment and services company, Liberty Energy Inc. LBRT, posted a third-quarter 2025 adjusted net loss of 6 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 1 cent. Moreover, the bottom line decreased sharply from the year-ago quarter’s profit of 45 cents. The company's underperformance can be attributed to macroeconomic headwinds accompanied by a slowdown in the industry’s frac activity and market pricing pressure.
As of Sept. 30, Liberty Energy had approximately $13.4 million in cash and cash equivalents. The pressure pumper’s long-term debt of $253 million represented a debt-to-capitalization of 10.9%.
San Antonio, TX-based oil and gas refining and marketing company, Valero Energy Corporation VLO, posted third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.66 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.16 per share. Better-than-expected quarterly results can be primarily attributed to an increase in refining margins, higher ethanol margins and lower total cost of sales.
The company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. As of Sept. 30, 2025, it had a total debt of $8.4 billion and finance-lease obligations of $2.2 billion.
Houston, TX-based oil and gas equipment and services company, Halliburton Company HAL, posted third-quarter 2025 adjusted net income per share of 58 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents. The outperformance primarily reflects successful cost reduction initiatives. However, the bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of 73 cents due to softer activity in North America.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had approximately $2 billion in cash/cash equivalents and $7.2 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 41.1.
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PTEN Q3 Earnings Loss Narrower Than Expected, Sales Beat

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.31%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.88%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.58%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose up +0.90%.
Stock indexes settled higher on Thursday, led by strength in energy producers after WTI crude oil jumped more than +5% when the US blacklisted state-run Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s largest oil producers, which threatens to tighten global oil supplies. Also, Dow Inc. rose more than +12% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda. In addition, Honeywell International rose by more than +6% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 sales.
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Stocks also found support on Thursday’s US economic news that showed Sep existing home sales rose +1.5% m/m to a 7-month high of 4.06 million, right on expectations.
Stocks added to their gains Thursday afternoon as US-China trade tensions eased slightly when the White House confirmed that President Trump will meet directly with President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.
On the negative side, Molina Healthcare closed down more than -17% to lead health insurers lower after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -8% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 preliminary sales.
Late Wednesday, the Trump administration announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s biggest oil producers, due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.” The new sanctions could bar foreign countries or companies from conducting business with the oil companies and cut them off from much of the international financial system.
The markets are focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.52%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.22%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.35%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Thursday closed down -10 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.4 bp to 3.993%. T-notes were under pressure on Thursday amid inflation concerns, as a +5% surge in WTI crude oil prices boosted inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year breakeven inflation rate to a 1-week high of 2.31%. Also, Thursday’s rally in stocks curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.
T-notes have ongoing support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
European government bond yields moved higher on Thursday. The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.0 bp to 2.583%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +0.6 bp to 4.423%.
The Eurozone Oct consumer confidence indicator survey unexpectedly rose +0.7 to an 8-month high of -14.2, stronger than expectations of a decline to -15.0.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Energy stocks and energy service providers moved higher on Thursday after the price of WTI crude oil surged more than +5% to a 2-week high. APA Corp (APA) closed up more than +7% and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +6%. Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR), Devon Energy (DVN), and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +3%. In addition, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and ConocoPhillips (COP) closed up more than +2%.
Quantum-computing stocks rallied on Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the firms are in talks to give the Commerce Department equity stakes in exchange for federal funding. As a result, IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing (QUBT) closed up more than +6%.
Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed down more than -17% to lead health insurers lower and losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $14.00 from a previous estimate of $19.00, well below the consensus of $18.65. Also, Centene (CNC) closed down -5% and Oscar Health (OSCR) closed down more than -3%.
Dow Inc. (DOW) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda of $868 million, well above the consensus of $759.7 million.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) closed up more than +12% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $3.33 billion, above the consensus of $3.04 billion.
West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) closed up more than +10% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.06-$7.11 from a previous forecast of $6.65-$6.85.
Dover Corp (DOV) closed up more than +8% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations estimate to $9.50-$9.60 from a previous estimate of $9.35-$9.55.
Honeywell International (HON) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 sales of $10.41 billion, stronger than the consensus of $10.15 billion.
TransUnion (TRU) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.10, better than the consensus of $1.05.
Trucking companies moved lower Thursday, led by a -7% fall in Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) after it forecasted Q4 adjusted EPS of 34 cents to 40 cents, the midpoint below the consensus of 39 cents. Saia Inc (SAIA) closed down more than -5% on the news, and Schneider National (SNDR) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) closed down more than -3%.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -8% after reporting Q1 preliminary sales of $5.00 billion, well below the consensus of $6.49 billion.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed down by more than -6% after reporting Q3 operating revenue of $6.90 billion, below the consensus of $6.92 billion.
Roper Technologies (ROP) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.11 to $5.16, weaker than the consensus of $5.24.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) closed down more than -3% after reporting Q3 revenue of $21.96 billion, weaker than the consensus of $21.98 billion.
Moderna (MRNA) closed down more than -2% after saying its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial.
Earnings Reports(10/24/2025)
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Gentex Corp (GNTX), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Rally on Strength in Energy Shares and US-China Trade Hopes

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Valero Energy Corp (Symbol: VLO), where a total volume of 13,967 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 1.4 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 57.2% of VLO's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.4 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $190 strike call option expiring November 21, 2025, with 2,992 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 299,200 underlying shares of VLO. Below is a chart showing VLO's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $190 strike highlighted in orange:
Ionq Inc (Symbol: IONQ) options are showing a volume of 195,300 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 19.5 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 55.4% of IONQ's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 35.3 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $55 strike put option expiring October 24, 2025, with 12,576 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.3 million underlying shares of IONQ. Below is a chart showing IONQ's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $55 strike highlighted in orange:
And Gogo Inc (Symbol: GOGO) options are showing a volume of 8,799 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 879,900 underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 54.9% of GOGO's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 1.6 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $7 strike put option expiring January 16, 2026, with 6,692 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 669,200 underlying shares of GOGO. Below is a chart showing GOGO's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $7 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for VLO options, IONQ options, or GOGO options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
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Funds Holding WFM
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Notable Thursday Option Activity: VLO, IONQ, GOGO

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.61%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.34%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.59%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today, led by strength in energy producers after WTI crude oil jumped more than +5% when the US blacklisted state-run Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s largest oil producers, which threatens to tighten global oil supplies. Also, Dow Inc. is up more than +8% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda. In addition, Honeywell International is up more than +7% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 sales.
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Stocks also found support on today’s US economic news that showed Sep existing home sales rose +1.5% m/m to a 7-month high of 4.06 million, right on expectations.
On the negative side, Molina Healthcare is down more than -20% to lead health insurers lower after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, International Business Machines is down more than -4% after reporting a smaller-than-expected increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit. In addition, Tesla is down more than -3% after reporting Q3 EPS below consensus.
Late Wednesday, the Trump administration announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s biggest oil producers, due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.” The new sanctions could bar foreign countries or companies from conducting business with the oil companies and cut them off from much of the international financial system.
The markets are focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.44%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.22%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.35%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are down -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.2 bp to 3.982%. T-notes are under pressure today amid inflation concerns, as a +5% surge in WTI crude oil prices has boosted inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year breakeven inflation rate to a 1-week high of 2.309%. Also, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $26 billion of 5-year TIPS later today.
T-notes have ongoing support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.6 bp to 2.579%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.5 bp to 4.413%.
The Eurozone Oct consumer confidence indicator survey unexpectedly rose +0.7 to an 8-month high of -14.2, stronger than expectations of a decline to -15.0.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Energy stocks and energy service providers are climbing today, with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +5% at a 2-week high. Valero Energy (VLO) is up more than +7% and APA Corp (APA) is up more than +6%. Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG) is up more than +4%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is up more than +3%. In addition, Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), ConocoPhillips (COP), Halliburton (HAL), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Baker Hughes (BKR) are up more than +2%.
Quantum-computing stocks are rallying today after the Wall Street Journal reported that the firms are in talks to give the Commerce Department equity stakes in exchange for federal funding. As a result, IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing (QUBT) are up more than +9%.
Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down more than -20% to lead health insurers lower and losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $14.00 from a previous estimate of $19.00, well below the consensus of $18.65. Also, Centene (CNC) and Oscar Health (OSCR) are down more than -6%. In addition, United Health Services (UHS) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) are down more than -1%.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 net revenue of $3.33 billion, above he consensus of $3.04 billion.
West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is up more than +11% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.06-$7.11 from a previous forecast of $6.65-$6.85.
Dow Inc. (DOW) is up more than +9% after reporting Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda of $868 million, well above the consensus of $759.7 million.
Honeywell International (HON) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 sales of $10.41 billion, stronger than the consensus of $10.15 billion.
TransUnion (TRU) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.10, better than the consensus of $1.05.
CME Group (CME) is up more than +1% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $300.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is down more than -7% after reporting Q1 preliminary sales of $5.00 billion, well below the consensus of $6.49 billion.
Roper Technologies (ROP) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.11 to $5.16, weaker than the consensus of $5.24.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down by more than -6% after reporting Q3 operating revenue of $6.90 billion, below the consensus of $6.92 billion.
International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting a +14% increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit, below the consensus of +16%.
Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -2% after reporting Q3 EPS of 50 cents, weaker than the consensus of 54 cents.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -3% after reporting Q3 revenue of $21.96 billion, weaker than the consensus of $21.98 billion.
Moderna (MRNA) is down more than -1% after saying its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial.
Earnings Reports(10/23/2025)
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), Allegion plc (ALLE), American Airlines Group Inc (AAL), AutoNation Inc (AN), Baker Hughes Co (BKR), Blackstone Inc (BX), Boston Beer Co Inc/The (SAM), Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD), Brunswick Corp/DE (BC), Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), CenterPoint Energy Inc (CNP), Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX), Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR), Dover Corp (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP), Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT), First Citizens BancShares Inc/ (FCNCA), Ford Motor Co (F), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), FTI Consulting Inc (FCN), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC), Honeywell International Inc (HON), Intel Corp (INTC), Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM), Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL), Lazard Inc (LAZ), Millrose Properties Inc (MRP), Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM), Newmont Corp (NEM), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), Old Republic International Cor (ORI), PG&E Corp (PCG), Pool Corp (POOL), Popular Inc (BPOP), Roper Technologies Inc (ROP), Ryder System Inc (R), SLM Corp (SLM), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings In (SPR), SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc (SSNC), TechnipFMC PLC (FTI), Textron Inc (TXT), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), Tractor Supply Co (TSCO), TransUnion (TRU), Union Pacific Corp (UNP), Valero Energy Corp (VLO), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), West Pharmaceutical Services Inc (WST), Western Union Co/The (WU).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Supported by Strength in Energy Producers and Earnings

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Valero Energy (VLO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Valero Energy Corporation VLO reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.66 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.16 per share.
Total quarterly revenues decreased from $32.9 billion in the prior-year quarter to $32.2 billion. The top line, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $29.8 billion.
Better-than-expected quarterly results can be primarily attributed to an increase in refining margins, higher ethanol margins and lower total cost of sales. The positives were partially offset by a decline in renewable diesel sales volumes.
Valero Energy Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Segmental Performance of VLO
Adjusted operating income in the Refining segment totaled $1,665 million, up from $568 million in the year-ago quarter. The segment’s performance was supported by a higher refining margin per barrel of throughput.
In the Ethanol segment, Valero reported an adjusted operating profit of $183 million, up from $153 million in the prior-year quarter. A higher ethanol margin per gallon of production aided the business segment.
Operating loss in the Renewable Diesel segment totaled $28 million against an operating income of $35 million in the year-ago quarter. Renewable diesel sales volume declined to 2,717 thousand gallons per day from 3,544 in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the same was pegged at 3,196 thousand gallons per day. The segment was affected by a decline in the renewable diesel margin per gallon of sales compared to the year-ago level.
VLO’s Throughput Volumes
In the third quarter, Valero’s refining throughput volumes totaled 3,087 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), up from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 2,884 MBbls/d. The figure came in higher than our estimate of 3,070.6 MBbls/d.
In terms of feedstock composition, sweet crude, medium/light sour crude and heavy sour crude accounted for 53.8%, 9.1% and 16.4%, respectively, of the total volume. The remaining volume came from residuals, other feedstock, and blendstocks and others.
The Gulf Coast contributed 60% to the total throughput volume, while the Mid-Continent, North Atlantic and West Coast regions accounted for 15%, 17% and 8%, respectively.
VLO’s Throughput Margins
The refining margin per barrel of throughput increased to $13.14 from the year-ago level of $9.09.
Refining operating expenses per barrel of throughput were $4.71 compared with $4.73 in the year-ago quarter.
Depreciation and amortization expenses increased to $2.57 per barrel from $2.22 in the prior-year period.
Valero’s adjusted refining operating income was $5.86 per barrel of throughput compared with $2.14 a year ago.
VLO’s Cost of Sales
Total cost of sales amounted to $30,396 million, down from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $32,122 million. The decline can be attributed to a fall in the cost of materials and others.
Capital Investment & Balance Sheet of VLO
The third-quarter capital investment totaled $409 million, of which $364 million was allocated toward sustaining the business.
The company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. As of Sep. 30, 2025, it had a total debt of $8.4 billion and finance-lease obligations of $2.2 billion.
VLO’s Zacks Rank and Other Key Picks
VLO currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks from the energy sector are Cheniere Energy Inc. LNG, Archrock, Inc. AROC and TechnipFMC plc FTI. While Cheniere Energy sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, Archrock and TechnipFMC carry a Zacks Rank #2 each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Cheniere Energy is involved in LNG-related businesses, which include LNG terminals and natural gas marketing. The company has achieved a milestone with the first production from the first LNG train of its Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project. The project, which includes seven midscale LNG trains, aims to expand the production capacity of the Corpus Christi Liquefaction facility. This expansion is expected to strengthen Cheniere's position in the rapidly growing global LNG market, enabling it to meet the rising demand for LNG both in the United States and internationally.
Archrock is an energy infrastructure company based in the United States with a focus on midstream natural gas compression. It provides natural gas contract compression services and generates stable fee-based revenues. With natural gas playing an increasingly important role in the energy transition journey, AROC is expected to witness sustained demand for its services.
TechnipFMC plc is a leading manufacturer and supplier of products, services and fully integrated technology solutions for the energy industry. FTI’s project backlog, now at $15.8 billion, has grown sequentially in six of the last seven quarters, reinforcing long-term revenue visibility for the company.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Valero Energy Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Refining Margins

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.32%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.18%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.33%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.35%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.35%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today, led by strength in energy producers after WTI crude oil jumped more than +5% when the US blacklisted state-run Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest oil producers, which threatens to tighten global oil supplies. Also, Dow Inc. is up more than +11% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda. In addition, Honeywell International is up more than +5% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 sales.
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On the negative side, Molina Healthcare is down more than -20% to lead health insurers lower after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, International Business Machines is down more than -4% after reporting a smaller-than-expected increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit. In addition, Tesla is down more than -3% after reporting Q3 EPS below consensus.
Late Wednesday, the Trump administration announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's biggest oil producers, due to "Russia's lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine." The new sanctions could bar foreign countries or companies from conducting business with the oil companies and cut them off from much of the international financial system.
The markets are focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods "if there isn't a deal" by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don't align with President Trump's priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.17%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.22%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.35%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are down -8 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.4 bp to 3.984%. T-notes are under pressure today due to inflation concerns, as a +5% surge in WTI crude oil prices has boosted inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year breakeven inflation rate up to a 1-week high of 2.309%. Also, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $26 billion of 5-year TIPS later today.
T-notes have ongoing support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.6 bp to 2.579%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.8 bp to 4.425%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Energy stocks and energy service providers are climbing today, with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +5% at a 2-week high. APA Corp (APA) is up more than +6% and Valero Energy (VLO) is up more than +5%. Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Devon Energy (DVN) are up more than +4%, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are up more than +3%. In addition, Halliburton (HAL), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Baker Hughes (BKR) are up more than +2%.
Quantum-computing stocks are rallying today after the Wall Street Journal reported that the firms are in talks to give the Commerce Department equity stakes in exchange for federal funding. As a result, IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing (QUBT) are up more than +6%.
Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down more than -20% to lead health insurers lower and losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $14.00 from a previous estimate of $19.00, well below the consensus of $18.65. Also, Centene (CNC) and Oscar Health (OSCR) are down more than -7%. In addition, Humana (HUM) is down -2%, and Elevance Health (ELV), United Health Services (UHS), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) are down more than -1%.
West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.06-$7.11 from a previous forecast of $6.65-$6.85.
Dow Inc. (DOW) is up more than +11% after reporting Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda of $868 million, well above the consensus of $759.7 million.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is up more than +9% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $3.33 billion, above he consensus of $3.04 billion.
Honeywell International (HON) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q3 sales of $10.41 billion, stronger than the consensus of $10.15 billion.
TransUnion (TRU) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.10, better than the consensus of $1.05.
CME Group (CME) is up more than +1% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $300.
Roper Technologies (ROP) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.11 to $5.16, weaker than the consensus of $5.24.
International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting a +14% increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit, below the consensus of +16%.
Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -3% after reporting Q3 EPS of 50 cents, weaker than the consensus of 54 cents.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down by more than -3% after reporting Q3 operating revenue of $6.90 billion, below the consensus of $6.92 billion.
Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is down more than -3% after narrowing its full-year comparable sales forecast to +1.4% to +2.4% from a previous forecast of 0% to +4.0%.
Packaging Corp (PKG) is down more than -1% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.73, below the consensus of $2.82.
Moderna (MRNA) is down more than -4% after saying its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial.
Earnings Reports(10/23/2025)
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), Allegion plc (ALLE), American Airlines Group Inc (AAL), AutoNation Inc (AN), Baker Hughes Co (BKR), Blackstone Inc (BX), Boston Beer Co Inc/The (SAM), Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD), Brunswick Corp/DE (BC), Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), CenterPoint Energy Inc (CNP), Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX), Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR), Dover Corp (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP), Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT), First Citizens BancShares Inc/ (FCNCA), Ford Motor Co (F), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), FTI Consulting Inc (FCN), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC), Honeywell International Inc (HON), Intel Corp (INTC), Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM), Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL), Lazard Inc (LAZ), Millrose Properties Inc (MRP), Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM), Newmont Corp (NEM), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), Old Republic International Cor (ORI), PG&E Corp (PCG), Pool Corp (POOL), Popular Inc (BPOP), Roper Technologies Inc (ROP), Ryder System Inc (R), SLM Corp (SLM), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings In (SPR), SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc (SSNC), TechnipFMC PLC (FTI), Textron Inc (TXT), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), Tractor Supply Co (TSCO), TransUnion (TRU), Union Pacific Corp (UNP), Valero Energy Corp (VLO), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), West Pharmaceutical Services Inc (WST), Western Union Co/The (WU).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.