Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate segments. The Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products. The Potash segment provides granular and standard potash products. The Nitrogen segment offers ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate, industrial grade ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment provides solid fertilizer, liquid fertilizer, and industrial and feed products. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

Nutrien appears to be a high-quality but not risk-free asset: its valuation on multiples is generally below the industry median, however the fundamental momentum is not strong enough to aggressively raise the target price. P/E, P/S, P/B, and P/FCF are noticeably below the sector median, indicating moderate undervaluation and supporting the investment case. At the same time, these multiples have been volatile in recent periods, and P/E and P/B do not show a sustained compression amid any clear acceleration in business quality. Profitability looks mixed: ROE, ROA, and ROI are below industry benchmarks, although profit margin, operating margin, and gross margin remain stable and close to sector averages. This suggests that the company is able to maintain operational efficiency, but has not yet converted revenue into profit at the level of the best peers. Leverage looks acceptable: debt/equity is around the median, debt does not appear excessive, and equity remains structurally strong. Liquidity is weaker than desirable: quick ratio and current ratio are below industry levels, which limits the margin of safety if fertilizer price conditions deteriorate. Dividend yield has declined compared with last year, so the dividend argument is currently less compelling than before. On the other hand, revenue, EBITDA, gross profit, and net income remain substantial in absolute terms, while equity and assets support the balance sheet. EPS and forward EPS look stronger than the industry median, confirming the company’s ability to generate profit even in a difficult cycle. Overall, this is more a story of moderate fundamental support than of obvious overvalued growth. For an investor, this means fair value may be somewhat below the current operational benchmark, but without a sharp revision, since the balance between undervaluation on multiples and weak profitability remains close to neutral.

Nutrien Ltd.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Strong index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Слабый индекс, значительно упал. Рынок не поддерживает быков.

Weak index, significantly down. The market does not support the bulls.

Средний индекс, значительно упал. Отток средств из лонгов резко увеличился и находится на высоком уровне.

Medium index, significantly down. The outflow of funds from longs has increased sharply and is at a high level.

Nutrien trades at a discount to the sector on key valuation multiples, but weak liquidity and average profitability limit revaluation potential.

Investors in Nutrien Ltd (Symbol: NTR) saw new options begin trading today, for the September 2027 expiration. One of the key inputs that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 340 days until expiration the newly trading contracts represent a potential opportunity for sellers of puts or calls to achieve a higher premium than would be available for the contracts with a closer expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the NTR options chain for the new September 2027 contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $42.50 strike price has a current bid of 5 cents. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $42.50, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $42.45 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of NTR, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $67.10/share today.
Because the $42.50 strike represents an approximate 37% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 90%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 0.12% return on the cash commitment, or 0.13% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Nutrien Ltd, and highlighting in green where the $42.50 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $72.50 strike price has a current bid of $5.10. If an investor was to purchase shares of NTR stock at the current price level of $67.10/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $72.50. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 15.65% if the stock gets called away at the September 2027 expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if NTR shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Nutrien Ltd, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing NTR's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $72.50 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $72.50 strike represents an approximate 8% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 52%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 7.60% boost of extra return to the investor, or 8.16% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
The implied volatility in the put contract example is 48%, while the implied volatility in the call contract example is 36%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 250 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $67.10) to be 33%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Further NTR Research:

NTR September 2027 Options Begin Trading

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Nutrien (NTR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

(RTTNews) - Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) released a profit for second quarter of $1.214 billion
The company's earnings totaled $1.214 billion, or $2.53 per share. This compares with $1.221 billion, or $2.50 per share, last year.
Excluding items, Nutrien Ltd. reported adjusted earnings of $1.251 billion or $2.61 per share for the period.
The company's revenue for the period rose 3.6% to $10.812 billion from $10.438 billion last year.
Nutrien Ltd. earnings at a glance (GAAP) :
-Earnings: $1.214 Bln. vs. $1.221 Bln. last year. -EPS: $2.53 vs. $2.50 last year. -Revenue: $10.812 Bln vs. $10.438 Bln last year.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Nutrien Ltd. Q2 Sales Increase

For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – July 14, 2026 – Today, Zacks Equity Research Nutrien Ltd. NTR, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF and Yara International ASA YARIY
Industry: Fertilizer
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2952100/3-fertilizer-stocks-to-keep-an-eye-on-in-a-challenging-industry
The Zacks Fertilizers industry is challenged by elevated costs of key raw materials, partly due to war-led disruptions, which have put pressure on the margins of industry players. Higher fertilizer prices and input cost inflation are also likely to result in growers reducing application rates, partly due to affordability issues, leading to weaker fertilizer demand.
However, increased fertilizer prices augur well for the companies in this space. Fertilizer players such as Nutrien Ltd., CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and Yara International ASA are worth a look, notwithstanding the near-term headwinds.
About the Industry
The Zacks Fertilizers industry comprises producers, distributors and marketers of crop nutrients for the global agriculture industry. Companies in this space offer nutrients such as phosphates (including diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid), potash and nitrogen (including urea, ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate) fertilizers. They also provide other nitrogen products to help farmers maximize crop yield.
Crop nutrients are essential to drive agricultural productivity and boost the natural fertility of the soil. Demand for these nutrients is being supported by the need to increase the production of grains to address rising food consumption globally. Moreover, the constant need of growers to nourish their crops, replenish nutrients in the soil following a harvest and boost yields to feed a growing global population drives the consumption of fertilizers.
What's Shaping the Future of the Fertilizers Industry?
Elevated Input Costs a Concern:Increased prices of major raw materials pose a headwind to fertilizer companies. Prices of both sulfur and ammonia — key inputs for the production of phosphate — remain elevated. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine, aggravated by the Middle East conflict, contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices.
Rising natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, are also a concern. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher raw material costs have led to an increase in production costs. As such, fertilizer makers are likely to face short-term margin pressure associated with higher input costs.
Reduced Affordability May Dampen Fertilizer Demand: Growers face challenges from still-depressed crop commodity prices and elevated production costs triggered by increased fertilizer prices, higher input and other costs, including fuel. Escalating costs are likely to result in farmers reducing fertilizer applications or switching to less fertilizer-intensive crops, leading to softer demand. Farm income is also projected to decline this year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects net farm income to decline 0.7% year over year to $153.4 billion this year. The same is forecast to decline 2.6% after adjusting for inflation. Reduced farm income may lead to a cutback in fertilizer application. Meanwhile, prices of major crops such as corn, soybean and wheat have improved this year from the lows witnessed in recent years, partly due to the Middle East tensions, but they remain well below the multi-year highs reached in 2022.
Higher Fertilizer Prices Augur Well: Prices of phosphate, potash and nitrogen remained depressed in 2023 and 2024 amid oversupply in the market and weak demand, weighing on the profitability of fertilizer companies. On a positive note, strong demand and supply tightness led to an uptick in fertilizer prices in 2025, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices were driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. The upward momentum in fertilizer prices continues this year. Higher prices are expected to drive top-line and margin expansion for companies in this space over the near term.
Zacks Industry Rank Reflects Downbeat Prospects
The Zacks Fertilizers industry is part of the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector. It carries a Zacks Industry Rank #207, which places it in the bottom 16% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates a bleak near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Underperforms S&P 500
The Zacks Fertilizers industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector over the past year.
The industry has lost 52.2% over this period against the S&P 500’s rise of 24.2% and the broader sector’s increase of 20.7%.
Industry's Current Valuation
On the basis of the trailing 12-month enterprise value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, which is a commonly used multiple for valuing fertilizer stocks, the industry is currently trading at 8.43X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.75X and the sector’s 12.8X.
In the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 15.54X and as low as 4.55X, with a median of 9.4X.
3 Fertilizer Stocks to Keep a Close Eye On
Yara International:Norway-based Yara International is a leading global producer and supplier of mineral fertilizers. It has industry-leading experience in ammonia development, production, operations and distribution. A favorable nitrogen demand environment bodes well for YARIY. Cost reductions and actions to strengthen the balance sheet are expected to boost the company’s profitability and cash flows. YARIY also remains focused on rewarding its shareholders by leveraging strong cash flows.
Yara International currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has an expected earnings growth rate of 61.1% for 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has moved 6.9% higher over the past 60 days. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed it once. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of 63.1%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Nutrien:Canada-based Nutrien is a leading provider of crop inputs and services. The company is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, backed by supportive global agriculture markets. NTR is seeing strong potash sales volumes and increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand. NTR is also gaining from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform. The company also continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid its performance. The company has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow.
Nutrien has expected earnings growth of 26.5% for 2026. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has been revised 3.2% upward over the past 60 days. Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
CF Industries:Illinois-based CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen and hydrogen products for fertilizer, clean energy, emissions reduction and other industrial applications. It is gaining from higher nitrogen fertilizer demand in the major markets such as North America, Brazil and India. CF is seeing higher nitrogen demand for industrial uses in North America. Higher nitrogen prices are also contributing to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. CF remains committed to boosting shareholders’ value by leveraging strong cash flows. The company is also taking action to de-leverage its balance sheet.
CF Industries, currently with a Zacks Rank #3, has an expected earnings growth rate of 84% for 2026. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has been revised 23.8% upward over the past 60 days. CF’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters at an average of 11.4%.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Industry Outlook Nutrien, CF Industries and Yara International

An updated edition of the May 8, 2026, article.
The agricultural technology (AgTech) and food innovation industry is moving beyond a traditional production story and becoming a broader efficiency-and-resilience theme. With food systems facing pressure from weather uncertainty, supply chain complexity and the need to produce more with fewer resources, companies are increasingly turning to advanced tools, improved inputs and smarter formulation strategies.
One important shift is the growing use of science and data across the farm-to-food chain. Precision agriculture, crop analytics, automation and biotechnology are helping producers make better decisions on planting, crop protection and resource use. These tools are becoming more relevant as growers look to manage costs while protecting yields.
Food companies are also responding to a more selective consumer base. Health awareness, label transparency, convenience and sustainability are influencing purchasing decisions, encouraging manufacturers to invest in better ingredients, reformulated products and plant-based options. Ingredion Incorporated INGR connects to this theme through its specialty ingredient and plant-based solutions used in modern food formulation.
The opportunity is not limited to packaged food innovation. It also extends to improving crop output at the field level. Corteva, Inc. CTVA brings exposure to this side of the theme through its seed and crop protection portfolio, along with digital tools designed to support farm productivity.
For investors, AgTech and food innovation offer exposure to essential demand and the ongoing modernization of agriculture and food production. While weather, commodity prices, regulations and adoption trends remain key risks, companies focused on efficiency, sustainability and productivity could benefit over time. The AgTech & Food Innovation Screen includes companies across the food and agriculture value chain, such as Bunge Global SA BG, Deere & Company DE and Nutrien Ltd. NTR.
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3 AgTech & Food Innovation Stocks in Focus
As food and agriculture evolve toward cleaner ingredients, stronger supply chains and more sustainable production, Bunge Global SA is playing a broader role in the AgTech and food innovation space. The Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company’s global network in oilseeds, grains, processing and ingredients gives it a strong platform to connect farmers, food manufacturers and end markets. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BG’s innovation efforts are especially visible in plant-based proteins and specialty ingredients. Its acquisition of IFF’s soy protein concentrate, lecithin and soy processing businesses added recognized ingredient brands such as Response, Alpha, Procon and Solec, expanding its ability to serve food customers across bakery, snacks, confectionery, meat and alternative-protein applications.
Bunge is also benefiting from its expanded global footprint following the Viterra combination, which strengthens origination, processing and merchandising capabilities across key agricultural markets. This larger network supports supply-chain flexibility and helps Bunge respond to changing demand for food, feed and renewable fuel inputs. With exposure to plant-based ingredients, specialty oils, oilseed processing and global agricultural flows, the company remains closely tied to long-term trends in food innovation, efficiency and sustainable agriculture.
Deere & Company continues to strengthen its position as a leader in precision agriculture by combining advanced machinery with digital technologies. DE’s innovation strategy is centered on helping farmers improve productivity, reduce input costs and make better decisions throughout the crop cycle.
Deere has expanded its precision agriculture portfolio with solutions spanning planting, spraying and harvesting. Its See & Spray technology uses computer vision and artificial intelligence to target weeds, while See & Scout generates agronomic insights such as weed pressure and stand count maps. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company has also introduced ExactShot, ExactDepth, FurrowVision and enhanced 8R and 8RX tractors, all designed to optimize seed placement, fertilizer application and field efficiency.
Beyond equipment, Deere is building a connected digital ecosystem through the John Deere Operations Center, Precision Essentials and JDLink Boost, supported by its partnership with Starlink to improve farm connectivity in remote areas. These technologies enable data-driven farm management while expanding Deere's recurring digital services, reinforcing its long-term role in advancing smart and sustainable agriculture.
Innovation in agriculture extends beyond advanced machinery to include smarter crop nutrition, digital tools and data-driven agronomy. Nutrien Ltd. is strengthening its position in this space through proprietary crop inputs, digital agriculture platforms and an integrated retail network that supports growers throughout the crop cycle.
The Zacks Rank #3 company’s strategy centers on expanding its proprietary products portfolio, launching new crop input solutions and improving the quality of its retail network. Nutrien is also using tuck-in acquisitions and network optimization projects to deepen its presence in key farming regions. Its low-cost potash and nitrogen assets further support a reliable nutrient supply, giving the company an important role in helping farmers manage input availability and crop productivity.
Through Nutrien Ag Solutions, the company offers tools such as ESN Smart Nitrogen, Loveland Products crop protection solutions and the Echelon digital platform for precision agronomy, field mapping and data-based recommendations. These offerings help growers make more informed decisions, improve input efficiency and support yield potential. With its mix of crop nutrients, proprietary products, agronomic services and digital capabilities, NTR is well aligned with the broader shift toward smarter, more efficient and more sustainable farming practices.
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3 AgTech & Food Innovation Stocks Driving Agriculture's Future

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF is benefiting from healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher prices. It, however, remains hamstrung by headwinds from higher costs stemming from an uptick in natural gas prices.
Higher prices of natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, have resulted in increased production costs for CF. It saw a notable rise in natural gas costs during 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $3.31 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in 2025 from $2.40 per MMBtu a year ago.
The same for first-quarter 2026 increased to $4.57 per MMBtu from $3.68 per MMBtu a year ago, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins.
Among its peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur, ammonia and natural gas as key inputs. NTR saw higher sulfur input costs in the first quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in the phosphate businesses, hurting margins. It expects further pressure on phosphate margins in the second quarter, resulting from higher sulfur and ammonia costs.
The Mosaic Company MOS is also buffeted by higher costs of inputs. Mosaic uses sulfur and ammonia as key inputs for the production of phosphate. It witnessed a sharp increase in sulfur price since late 2025, which weighed on phosphate margins in the first quarter. MOS expects an additional impact of the sulfur price inflation on the cost of goods sold in the second quarter.
CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CF Industries has gained 11.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 5.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.15, a 34.1% discount relative to the industry average of 10.85X. It carries a Value Score of A.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 83.1% and a decline of 34.9%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
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CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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Can CF Industries Protect Margins Amid Input Cost Pressure?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF and Nutrien Ltd. NTR are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. In Brazil, demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war are likely to lead to a greater requirement. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen market will remain tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million. CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.9% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%.
The Case for Nutrien
Nutrien is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices.
NTR saw record potash sales volumes in the first quarter of 2026, driven by low inventory levels and favorable potash affordability, especially in key offshore markets. The company maintained its global potash shipment forecast of 74-77 million tons for 2026 and sees relatively tight potash fundamentals through the year. It is also increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand.
Nutrien should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
NTR has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It returned $409 million to its shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and share repurchases. Nutrien offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.4% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 48% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.1%.
NTR, however, remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur, ammonia and natural gas as key inputs. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict, contributed to the rise in input prices. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also resulted in a tight supply of these inputs, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Tight global sulfur supply, higher benchmark sulfur prices and ongoing supply-chain constraints continued to increase phosphate production costs.
The company saw higher sulfur input costs in the first quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in the phosphate businesses, hurting margins. It expects further pressure on phosphate margins in the second quarter, resulting from higher sulfur and ammonia costs.
Price Performance and Valuation of CF & NTR
The CF stock is up 33.1% year to date, while NTR has gained 1.9% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.26. This represents a roughly 34.8% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 11.14X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NTR is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.17, above CF and the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for CF & NTR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 22.8%. The same for EPS suggests a 83.1% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for NTR’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 8% and 31.4%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF or NTR: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both CF and Nutrien are benefiting from strong global demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Higher fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. Both remain committed to boosting shareholder returns. CF appears to have an edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate. In addition, CF’s higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while NTR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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CF vs. NTR: Which Fertilizer Giant Is the Better Pick Now?

Nutrien Ltd.’s NTR shares have gained 16.7% over the past six months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 40.5% decline over the same time frame. NTR has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 10.3% increase over the same period.
NTR is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, its actions to reduce costs and higher fertilizer prices. The company delivered better-than-expected earnings performance in the first quarter, thanks to these drivers. A key operating highlight was record first-quarter potash sales volumes.
NTR’s 6-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker.
NTR Gains on Healthy Demand, Higher Prices & Cost Cuts
Nutrien is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices.
Favorable farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are expected to drive potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also supported by low producer and channel inventories. Restricted exports from China have also led to supply tightness in this market. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains healthy in major markets. Global nitrogen requirement is driven by demand in North America, India and Brazil. A resurgence in industrial nitrogen demand also bodes well. Expectations of high levels of planted corn and soybean acres globally also suggest a pickup in fertilizer demand in 2026.
NTR saw record potash sales volumes of 3.51 million tons in the first quarter, driven by low inventory levels and favorable potash affordability, especially in key offshore markets. The company maintained its global potash shipment forecast of 74-77 million tons for 2026 and sees relatively tight potash fundamentals through the year. It is also increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand.
Strong demand and supply tightness have led to an uptick in fertilizer prices, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices are driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. Higher prices are expected to drive top-line and margin expansion for NTR over the near term.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
Nutrien Ltd. Price and Consensus
NTR’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Nucor Corporation NUE, L.B. Foster Company FSTR and Albemarle Corporation ALB, each carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nucor’s current-year earnings stands at $14.84 per share, implying an 92.5% year-over-year increase. NUE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 8.1%.
The consensus estimate for L.B. Foster’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.74 per share, implying a 152.2% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSTR’s current-year earnings has been revised 12.3% higher over the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Albemarle’s current-year earnings is pegged at $12.39 per share, indicating a 1,668.4% year-over-year increase. ALB’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 74.5%.
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NTR's Shares Rise 17% in 6 Months: What's Driving the Upside?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s CF shares have shot up 49.7% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 41.8% and the S&P 500’s rise of 10.5%. The upside has been driven by its forecast-topping earnings performance, buoyed by healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices.
CF’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR and The Mosaic Company MOS, have gained 14% and declined 1.3%, respectively, over the same period.
CF’s 6-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The CF stock has been trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since May 20, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on Feb. 26, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
CF Stock Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at CF’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF Stock
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. Demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in Brazil in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, demand is expected to be driven by low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF’s Solid Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million.
CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.8% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%. Backed by sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Positive Analyst Sentiment for CF Stock
Earnings estimates for CF Industries have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look At CF Stock’s Valuation
CF is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 7.95X, a 34.4% discount relative to the industry average of 12.11X. It is trading at a discount to Nutrien and Mosaic. CF and Nutrien currently have a Value Score of A, while Mosaic carries a Value Score of B.
CF’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & MOS
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Buy CF Stock
CF has rallied on strong nitrogen demand and higher pricing, driving earnings beats and upward estimate revisions. Robust cash flow supports aggressive buybacks and a healthy dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns. Favorable farm economics, strong import demand from Brazil and India and disciplined capital allocation underpin earnings visibility. In addition, CF’s cheap valuation offers an attractive entry point. With compelling nitrogen market fundamentals and price tailwinds firmly remaining in place, CF looks poised to deliver attractive returns to its investors, making this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock a prudent choice for those looking to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Is CF Stock a Screaming Buy After a 50% Rally in 6 Months?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF generated healthy cash flows in the first quarter, backed by strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter. Its cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the quarter.
Notably, CF generated net cash from operating activities of $2.75 billion and free cash flow of $1.79 billion in 2025, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively.
CF’s substantial cash flows and strong balance sheet enable it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
The company is expected to continue generating significant free cash flow, leveraging its high-margin business, strategic execution and favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics, allowing it to invest in growth opportunities and enhance returns to its shareholders.
Among its peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR generated solid cash flows in the first quarter, thanks to higher fertilizer benchmark pricing, increased retail earnings and record potash sales volumes. NTR’s cash provided in operating activities was $851 million in the first quarter. Nutrien generated an operating cash flow of $4 billion for full-year 2025.
The Mosaic Company’s MOS cash flow from operating activities was $104.2 million in the first quarter, up from $42.9 million a year ago, aided by improved working capital dynamics. Mosaic’s free cash flow was negative $252.6 million, consistent with typical first-quarter seasonality. MOS generated an operating cash flow of $825 million in 2025.
CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CF Industries has gained 22.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 4.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.71, a 36.8% discount relative to the industry average of 12.21X. It carries a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 87.5% and a decline of 38.9%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
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Nutrien Ltd.

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