Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate segments. The Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products. The Potash segment provides granular and standard potash products. The Nitrogen segment offers ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate, industrial grade ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment provides solid fertilizer, liquid fertilizer, and industrial and feed products. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

Nutrien appears to be a mature cyclical business with decent profitability, but without clear signs of strong acceleration that would typically justify a more aggressive re-rating. On valuation multiples, the company trades well below the industry median: P/E, P/S, P/B, and P/FCF are all at a discount, which suggests undervaluation rather than an overheated valuation. However, this discount does not seem completely “free,” because earnings quality and operating generation have not shown sustained improvement in the latest periods, and some absolute metrics have declined compared with stronger periods. Profitability is generally acceptable: gross margin is above the industry level, while ROE, ROA, and ROI remain below the median, but the multi-year trend in ROE and ROI has improved, supporting the case for a gradual recovery in efficiency. At the same time, the quick ratio and current ratio are weaker than the industry’s, and the quick ratio in particular is very low, so liquidity remains a vulnerability and limits the potential for a higher valuation. Leverage appears manageable: debt/equity is around the median, long-term debt has been declining over the years, and equity has remained stable, which reduces financial risk. On the other hand, cash on hand is low, and total liabilities remain significant, so the balance sheet cannot be called unequivocally strong. Dividend yield has declined compared with prior periods, reducing the stock’s appeal for income-oriented investors. Revenue and gross profit have generally been high over the historical series, but the latest figures do not show sustained acceleration, and EBITDA and operating income are noticeably weaker than in stronger quarters, indicating cyclicality and sensitivity to product prices. EPS and forecast EPS look better than the industry’s, but their year-to-year volatility suggests that current profitability has not yet become fully stable. Overall, this supports a moderately positive view of fair value, but without strong upside, since the fundamentals point to a quality business that is cyclical and not ideally liquid. For an investor, this means the current valuation may be slightly depressed, but upside should remain limited due to weak liquidity, less-than-ideal returns on capital, and the lack of convincing acceleration in operating results.

Nutrien Ltd.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Strong index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Сильный индекс, незначительно вырос. Рынок на стороне быков.

Strong index, slightly up. The market is on the bulls' side.

Слабый индекс, незначительно упал. Приток средств в лонги остался положительным, но снизился.

Weak index, slightly down. The inflow of funds into longs remained positive, but decreased.

Nutrien appears moderately undervalued on valuation multiples, but weak liquidity and uneven earnings momentum limit re-rating potential.

For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – July 14, 2026 – Today, Zacks Equity Research Nutrien Ltd. NTR, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF and Yara International ASA YARIY
Industry: Fertilizer
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2952100/3-fertilizer-stocks-to-keep-an-eye-on-in-a-challenging-industry
The Zacks Fertilizers industry is challenged by elevated costs of key raw materials, partly due to war-led disruptions, which have put pressure on the margins of industry players. Higher fertilizer prices and input cost inflation are also likely to result in growers reducing application rates, partly due to affordability issues, leading to weaker fertilizer demand.
However, increased fertilizer prices augur well for the companies in this space. Fertilizer players such as Nutrien Ltd., CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and Yara International ASA are worth a look, notwithstanding the near-term headwinds.
About the Industry
The Zacks Fertilizers industry comprises producers, distributors and marketers of crop nutrients for the global agriculture industry. Companies in this space offer nutrients such as phosphates (including diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid), potash and nitrogen (including urea, ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate) fertilizers. They also provide other nitrogen products to help farmers maximize crop yield.
Crop nutrients are essential to drive agricultural productivity and boost the natural fertility of the soil. Demand for these nutrients is being supported by the need to increase the production of grains to address rising food consumption globally. Moreover, the constant need of growers to nourish their crops, replenish nutrients in the soil following a harvest and boost yields to feed a growing global population drives the consumption of fertilizers.
What's Shaping the Future of the Fertilizers Industry?
Elevated Input Costs a Concern:Increased prices of major raw materials pose a headwind to fertilizer companies. Prices of both sulfur and ammonia — key inputs for the production of phosphate — remain elevated. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine, aggravated by the Middle East conflict, contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices.
Rising natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, are also a concern. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher raw material costs have led to an increase in production costs. As such, fertilizer makers are likely to face short-term margin pressure associated with higher input costs.
Reduced Affordability May Dampen Fertilizer Demand: Growers face challenges from still-depressed crop commodity prices and elevated production costs triggered by increased fertilizer prices, higher input and other costs, including fuel. Escalating costs are likely to result in farmers reducing fertilizer applications or switching to less fertilizer-intensive crops, leading to softer demand. Farm income is also projected to decline this year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects net farm income to decline 0.7% year over year to $153.4 billion this year. The same is forecast to decline 2.6% after adjusting for inflation. Reduced farm income may lead to a cutback in fertilizer application. Meanwhile, prices of major crops such as corn, soybean and wheat have improved this year from the lows witnessed in recent years, partly due to the Middle East tensions, but they remain well below the multi-year highs reached in 2022.
Higher Fertilizer Prices Augur Well: Prices of phosphate, potash and nitrogen remained depressed in 2023 and 2024 amid oversupply in the market and weak demand, weighing on the profitability of fertilizer companies. On a positive note, strong demand and supply tightness led to an uptick in fertilizer prices in 2025, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices were driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. The upward momentum in fertilizer prices continues this year. Higher prices are expected to drive top-line and margin expansion for companies in this space over the near term.
Zacks Industry Rank Reflects Downbeat Prospects
The Zacks Fertilizers industry is part of the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector. It carries a Zacks Industry Rank #207, which places it in the bottom 16% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates a bleak near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Underperforms S&P 500
The Zacks Fertilizers industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector over the past year.
The industry has lost 52.2% over this period against the S&P 500’s rise of 24.2% and the broader sector’s increase of 20.7%.
Industry's Current Valuation
On the basis of the trailing 12-month enterprise value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, which is a commonly used multiple for valuing fertilizer stocks, the industry is currently trading at 8.43X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.75X and the sector’s 12.8X.
In the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 15.54X and as low as 4.55X, with a median of 9.4X.
3 Fertilizer Stocks to Keep a Close Eye On
Yara International:Norway-based Yara International is a leading global producer and supplier of mineral fertilizers. It has industry-leading experience in ammonia development, production, operations and distribution. A favorable nitrogen demand environment bodes well for YARIY. Cost reductions and actions to strengthen the balance sheet are expected to boost the company’s profitability and cash flows. YARIY also remains focused on rewarding its shareholders by leveraging strong cash flows.
Yara International currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has an expected earnings growth rate of 61.1% for 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has moved 6.9% higher over the past 60 days. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed it once. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of 63.1%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Nutrien:Canada-based Nutrien is a leading provider of crop inputs and services. The company is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, backed by supportive global agriculture markets. NTR is seeing strong potash sales volumes and increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand. NTR is also gaining from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform. The company also continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid its performance. The company has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow.
Nutrien has expected earnings growth of 26.5% for 2026. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has been revised 3.2% upward over the past 60 days. Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
CF Industries:Illinois-based CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen and hydrogen products for fertilizer, clean energy, emissions reduction and other industrial applications. It is gaining from higher nitrogen fertilizer demand in the major markets such as North America, Brazil and India. CF is seeing higher nitrogen demand for industrial uses in North America. Higher nitrogen prices are also contributing to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. CF remains committed to boosting shareholders’ value by leveraging strong cash flows. The company is also taking action to de-leverage its balance sheet.
CF Industries, currently with a Zacks Rank #3, has an expected earnings growth rate of 84% for 2026. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has been revised 23.8% upward over the past 60 days. CF’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters at an average of 11.4%.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Industry Outlook Nutrien, CF Industries and Yara International

An updated edition of the May 8, 2026, article.
The agricultural technology (AgTech) and food innovation industry is moving beyond a traditional production story and becoming a broader efficiency-and-resilience theme. With food systems facing pressure from weather uncertainty, supply chain complexity and the need to produce more with fewer resources, companies are increasingly turning to advanced tools, improved inputs and smarter formulation strategies.
One important shift is the growing use of science and data across the farm-to-food chain. Precision agriculture, crop analytics, automation and biotechnology are helping producers make better decisions on planting, crop protection and resource use. These tools are becoming more relevant as growers look to manage costs while protecting yields.
Food companies are also responding to a more selective consumer base. Health awareness, label transparency, convenience and sustainability are influencing purchasing decisions, encouraging manufacturers to invest in better ingredients, reformulated products and plant-based options. Ingredion Incorporated INGR connects to this theme through its specialty ingredient and plant-based solutions used in modern food formulation.
The opportunity is not limited to packaged food innovation. It also extends to improving crop output at the field level. Corteva, Inc. CTVA brings exposure to this side of the theme through its seed and crop protection portfolio, along with digital tools designed to support farm productivity.
For investors, AgTech and food innovation offer exposure to essential demand and the ongoing modernization of agriculture and food production. While weather, commodity prices, regulations and adoption trends remain key risks, companies focused on efficiency, sustainability and productivity could benefit over time. The AgTech & Food Innovation Screen includes companies across the food and agriculture value chain, such as Bunge Global SA BG, Deere & Company DE and Nutrien Ltd. NTR.
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3 AgTech & Food Innovation Stocks in Focus
As food and agriculture evolve toward cleaner ingredients, stronger supply chains and more sustainable production, Bunge Global SA is playing a broader role in the AgTech and food innovation space. The Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company’s global network in oilseeds, grains, processing and ingredients gives it a strong platform to connect farmers, food manufacturers and end markets. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BG’s innovation efforts are especially visible in plant-based proteins and specialty ingredients. Its acquisition of IFF’s soy protein concentrate, lecithin and soy processing businesses added recognized ingredient brands such as Response, Alpha, Procon and Solec, expanding its ability to serve food customers across bakery, snacks, confectionery, meat and alternative-protein applications.
Bunge is also benefiting from its expanded global footprint following the Viterra combination, which strengthens origination, processing and merchandising capabilities across key agricultural markets. This larger network supports supply-chain flexibility and helps Bunge respond to changing demand for food, feed and renewable fuel inputs. With exposure to plant-based ingredients, specialty oils, oilseed processing and global agricultural flows, the company remains closely tied to long-term trends in food innovation, efficiency and sustainable agriculture.
Deere & Company continues to strengthen its position as a leader in precision agriculture by combining advanced machinery with digital technologies. DE’s innovation strategy is centered on helping farmers improve productivity, reduce input costs and make better decisions throughout the crop cycle.
Deere has expanded its precision agriculture portfolio with solutions spanning planting, spraying and harvesting. Its See & Spray technology uses computer vision and artificial intelligence to target weeds, while See & Scout generates agronomic insights such as weed pressure and stand count maps. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company has also introduced ExactShot, ExactDepth, FurrowVision and enhanced 8R and 8RX tractors, all designed to optimize seed placement, fertilizer application and field efficiency.
Beyond equipment, Deere is building a connected digital ecosystem through the John Deere Operations Center, Precision Essentials and JDLink Boost, supported by its partnership with Starlink to improve farm connectivity in remote areas. These technologies enable data-driven farm management while expanding Deere's recurring digital services, reinforcing its long-term role in advancing smart and sustainable agriculture.
Innovation in agriculture extends beyond advanced machinery to include smarter crop nutrition, digital tools and data-driven agronomy. Nutrien Ltd. is strengthening its position in this space through proprietary crop inputs, digital agriculture platforms and an integrated retail network that supports growers throughout the crop cycle.
The Zacks Rank #3 company’s strategy centers on expanding its proprietary products portfolio, launching new crop input solutions and improving the quality of its retail network. Nutrien is also using tuck-in acquisitions and network optimization projects to deepen its presence in key farming regions. Its low-cost potash and nitrogen assets further support a reliable nutrient supply, giving the company an important role in helping farmers manage input availability and crop productivity.
Through Nutrien Ag Solutions, the company offers tools such as ESN Smart Nitrogen, Loveland Products crop protection solutions and the Echelon digital platform for precision agronomy, field mapping and data-based recommendations. These offerings help growers make more informed decisions, improve input efficiency and support yield potential. With its mix of crop nutrients, proprietary products, agronomic services and digital capabilities, NTR is well aligned with the broader shift toward smarter, more efficient and more sustainable farming practices.
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3 AgTech & Food Innovation Stocks Driving Agriculture's Future

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF is benefiting from healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher prices. It, however, remains hamstrung by headwinds from higher costs stemming from an uptick in natural gas prices.
Higher prices of natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, have resulted in increased production costs for CF. It saw a notable rise in natural gas costs during 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $3.31 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in 2025 from $2.40 per MMBtu a year ago.
The same for first-quarter 2026 increased to $4.57 per MMBtu from $3.68 per MMBtu a year ago, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins.
Among its peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur, ammonia and natural gas as key inputs. NTR saw higher sulfur input costs in the first quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in the phosphate businesses, hurting margins. It expects further pressure on phosphate margins in the second quarter, resulting from higher sulfur and ammonia costs.
The Mosaic Company MOS is also buffeted by higher costs of inputs. Mosaic uses sulfur and ammonia as key inputs for the production of phosphate. It witnessed a sharp increase in sulfur price since late 2025, which weighed on phosphate margins in the first quarter. MOS expects an additional impact of the sulfur price inflation on the cost of goods sold in the second quarter.
CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CF Industries has gained 11.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 5.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.15, a 34.1% discount relative to the industry average of 10.85X. It carries a Value Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 83.1% and a decline of 34.9%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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Can CF Industries Protect Margins Amid Input Cost Pressure?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF and Nutrien Ltd. NTR are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. In Brazil, demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war are likely to lead to a greater requirement. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen market will remain tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million. CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.9% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%.
The Case for Nutrien
Nutrien is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices.
NTR saw record potash sales volumes in the first quarter of 2026, driven by low inventory levels and favorable potash affordability, especially in key offshore markets. The company maintained its global potash shipment forecast of 74-77 million tons for 2026 and sees relatively tight potash fundamentals through the year. It is also increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand.
Nutrien should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
NTR has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It returned $409 million to its shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and share repurchases. Nutrien offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.4% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 48% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.1%.
NTR, however, remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur, ammonia and natural gas as key inputs. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict, contributed to the rise in input prices. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also resulted in a tight supply of these inputs, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Tight global sulfur supply, higher benchmark sulfur prices and ongoing supply-chain constraints continued to increase phosphate production costs.
The company saw higher sulfur input costs in the first quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in the phosphate businesses, hurting margins. It expects further pressure on phosphate margins in the second quarter, resulting from higher sulfur and ammonia costs.
Price Performance and Valuation of CF & NTR
The CF stock is up 33.1% year to date, while NTR has gained 1.9% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.26. This represents a roughly 34.8% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 11.14X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NTR is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.17, above CF and the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for CF & NTR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 22.8%. The same for EPS suggests a 83.1% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for NTR’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 8% and 31.4%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF or NTR: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both CF and Nutrien are benefiting from strong global demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Higher fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. Both remain committed to boosting shareholder returns. CF appears to have an edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate. In addition, CF’s higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while NTR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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CF vs. NTR: Which Fertilizer Giant Is the Better Pick Now?

Nutrien Ltd.’s NTR shares have gained 16.7% over the past six months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 40.5% decline over the same time frame. NTR has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 10.3% increase over the same period.
NTR is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, its actions to reduce costs and higher fertilizer prices. The company delivered better-than-expected earnings performance in the first quarter, thanks to these drivers. A key operating highlight was record first-quarter potash sales volumes.
NTR’s 6-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker.
NTR Gains on Healthy Demand, Higher Prices & Cost Cuts
Nutrien is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices.
Favorable farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are expected to drive potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also supported by low producer and channel inventories. Restricted exports from China have also led to supply tightness in this market. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains healthy in major markets. Global nitrogen requirement is driven by demand in North America, India and Brazil. A resurgence in industrial nitrogen demand also bodes well. Expectations of high levels of planted corn and soybean acres globally also suggest a pickup in fertilizer demand in 2026.
NTR saw record potash sales volumes of 3.51 million tons in the first quarter, driven by low inventory levels and favorable potash affordability, especially in key offshore markets. The company maintained its global potash shipment forecast of 74-77 million tons for 2026 and sees relatively tight potash fundamentals through the year. It is also increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand.
Strong demand and supply tightness have led to an uptick in fertilizer prices, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices are driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. Higher prices are expected to drive top-line and margin expansion for NTR over the near term.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
Nutrien Ltd. Price and Consensus
NTR’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Nucor Corporation NUE, L.B. Foster Company FSTR and Albemarle Corporation ALB, each carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nucor’s current-year earnings stands at $14.84 per share, implying an 92.5% year-over-year increase. NUE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 8.1%.
The consensus estimate for L.B. Foster’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.74 per share, implying a 152.2% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSTR’s current-year earnings has been revised 12.3% higher over the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Albemarle’s current-year earnings is pegged at $12.39 per share, indicating a 1,668.4% year-over-year increase. ALB’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 74.5%.
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NTR's Shares Rise 17% in 6 Months: What's Driving the Upside?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s CF shares have shot up 49.7% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 41.8% and the S&P 500’s rise of 10.5%. The upside has been driven by its forecast-topping earnings performance, buoyed by healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices.
CF’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR and The Mosaic Company MOS, have gained 14% and declined 1.3%, respectively, over the same period.
CF’s 6-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The CF stock has been trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since May 20, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on Feb. 26, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
CF Stock Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at CF’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF Stock
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. Demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in Brazil in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, demand is expected to be driven by low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF’s Solid Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million.
CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.8% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%. Backed by sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Positive Analyst Sentiment for CF Stock
Earnings estimates for CF Industries have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look At CF Stock’s Valuation
CF is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 7.95X, a 34.4% discount relative to the industry average of 12.11X. It is trading at a discount to Nutrien and Mosaic. CF and Nutrien currently have a Value Score of A, while Mosaic carries a Value Score of B.
CF’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & MOS
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Buy CF Stock
CF has rallied on strong nitrogen demand and higher pricing, driving earnings beats and upward estimate revisions. Robust cash flow supports aggressive buybacks and a healthy dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns. Favorable farm economics, strong import demand from Brazil and India and disciplined capital allocation underpin earnings visibility. In addition, CF’s cheap valuation offers an attractive entry point. With compelling nitrogen market fundamentals and price tailwinds firmly remaining in place, CF looks poised to deliver attractive returns to its investors, making this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock a prudent choice for those looking to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Is CF Stock a Screaming Buy After a 50% Rally in 6 Months?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF generated healthy cash flows in the first quarter, backed by strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter. Its cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the quarter.
Notably, CF generated net cash from operating activities of $2.75 billion and free cash flow of $1.79 billion in 2025, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively.
CF’s substantial cash flows and strong balance sheet enable it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
The company is expected to continue generating significant free cash flow, leveraging its high-margin business, strategic execution and favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics, allowing it to invest in growth opportunities and enhance returns to its shareholders.
Among its peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR generated solid cash flows in the first quarter, thanks to higher fertilizer benchmark pricing, increased retail earnings and record potash sales volumes. NTR’s cash provided in operating activities was $851 million in the first quarter. Nutrien generated an operating cash flow of $4 billion for full-year 2025.
The Mosaic Company’s MOS cash flow from operating activities was $104.2 million in the first quarter, up from $42.9 million a year ago, aided by improved working capital dynamics. Mosaic’s free cash flow was negative $252.6 million, consistent with typical first-quarter seasonality. MOS generated an operating cash flow of $825 million in 2025.
CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CF Industries has gained 22.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 4.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.71, a 36.8% discount relative to the industry average of 12.21X. It carries a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 87.5% and a decline of 38.9%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Can CF Industries' Strong Cash Flow Drive More Growth and Returns?

Nutrien Ltd. NTR has priced two senior note offerings totaling $1 billion, aimed at managing debt maturities while maintaining liquidity and operational stability. The company is issuing $500 million of 4.85% senior notes due May 29, 2031, and $500 million of 5.35% senior notes due May 29, 2036. The offering is expected to close around May 29, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.
According to the company, proceeds from the offering will primarily be used to repay its $500 million 4% senior notes maturing on Dec. 15, 2026. Additional funds will help reduce debt under its short-term credit facilities, support working capital needs and cover general corporate purposes.
The new senior notes will be unsecured and will rank equally with NTR’s existing senior unsecured debt obligations. CIBC World Markets Corp., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, and Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. are serving as joint book-running managers for the offering.
Nutrien ended the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $777 million, up from $701 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt declined 5.6% to $8,825 million from $9,350 million at the end of 2025, while total long-term debt, including the current portion, was $9,861 million compared with $9,863 million at year-end.
Cash used in operating activities was $851 million in the first quarter. Nutrien said the year-over-year improvement primarily reflected higher fertilizer benchmark pricing, increased Retail earnings and record potash sales volumes.
Management reaffirmed full-year guidance following the quarter. Retail adjusted EBITDA is still expected in the $1.75-$1.95 billion range, reflecting the company’s outlook for crop input demand and downstream execution through the year.
Nutrien maintained its sales volume outlook across the upstream portfolio as well. Potash sales volumes are projected at 14.1-14.8 million tons, Nitrogen at 9.2-9.7 million tons and Phosphate at 2.4-2.6 million tons. The company also reiterated capital expenditures guidance of $2-$2.1 billion, with depreciation and amortization expected at $2.4-$2.5 billion and finance costs at $0.65-$0.75 billion.
NTR’s stock has gained 16.9% over the past year compared with the industry’s 8.3% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NTR’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, Albemarle Corporation ALB and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM.
While CF and ALB sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each at present, ASM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $15.67 per share, indicating a rise of 67.24% year over year. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.42%. CF’s shares have soared 29.1% over the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALB’s 2026 earnings is pinned at $12.45 per share, indicating a 1,675.95% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing it in one, with an average surprise of 74.5%. ALB’s shares have jumped 208.7% over the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s current fiscal-year earnings is pinned at 39 cents per share, indicating a 34.48% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the four trailing quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 125%.
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NTR Prices $1-Billion 5-Year and 10-Year Senior Notes Offering

Nutrien (NTR) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.11 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +6.99%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this producer of potash and other fertilizers would post earnings of $0.87 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.83, delivering a surprise of -4.6%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Nutrien, which belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry, posted revenues of $6.05 billion for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.87%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $5.1 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Nutrien shares have added about 25.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 6%.
What's Next for Nutrien?
While Nutrien has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Nutrien was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.74 on $10.48 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $5.34 on $28.4 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Fertilizers is currently in the top 11% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Mosaic (MOS), has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 11.
This fertilizer maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.20 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -59.2%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 10% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
Mosaic's revenues are expected to be $2.75 billion, up 4.9% from the year-ago quarter.
Should You Invest in Nutrien Ltd. (NTR)?
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Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Nutrien (NTR) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

(RTTNews) - Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) announced a profit for its first quarter that Increases, from the same period last year
The company's earnings came in at $131 million, or $0.27 per share. This compares with $11 million, or $0.02 per share, last year.
Excluding items, Nutrien Ltd. reported adjusted earnings of $245 million or $0.51 per share for the period.
The company's revenue for the period rose 18.5% to $6.046 billion from $5.100 billion last year.
Nutrien Ltd. earnings at a glance (GAAP) :
-Earnings: $131 Mln. vs. $11 Mln. last year. -EPS: $0.27 vs. $0.02 last year. -Revenue: $6.046 Bln vs. $5.100 Bln last year.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.