McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, desserts, sundaes, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates under various structures comprising conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

McDonald's демонстрирует сильные финансовые показатели, включая высокие маржи и прибыль, что подтверждает его лидерство в отрасли. Показатели ROE и ROA значительно превышают медианные значения, что указывает на эффективность использования капитала. Тем не менее, мультипликаторы, такие как P/E и P/S, находятся на высоких уровнях, что может свидетельствовать о переоцененности акций. Долговая нагрузка остается низкой, но наблюдается рост долгосрочного долга. Также стоит отметить, что дивидендная доходность снизилась, что может негативно сказаться на привлекательности для инвесторов. В то же время, рост выручки и чистой прибыли открывает перспективы для будущего роста. На фоне всех этих факторов целесообразно пересмотреть целевую цену, учитывая как позитивные, так и негативные аспекты текущей оценки компании.

McDonald's Corporation

Key Points
McDonald's has averaged an impressive profit margin in excess of 30% over the past four quarters.
It has been raising its dividend for 49 consecutive years, and that streak isn't in any danger of ending anytime soon.
Investing in restaurant stocks can be risky because there is so much competition in the industry. Companies also have to always evolve and keep up with the latest trends to stay relevant. But there's one restaurant stock that stands apart from the rest, not only in terms of its brand, its financials, but also its dividend, and that's McDonald's (NYSE: MCD).
The company behind the iconic golden arches is arguably the best restaurant stock you can own. Here's why it's the only one that I wouldn't think twice about relying on for its dividend, and why it can be a no-brainer buy for the long haul.
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The company's super-sized margins put it in an excellent position
McDonald's has an incredibly strong position in the fast food industry, as evidenced by its impressive margins. Last year, it generated $8.6 billion in profit on revenue totaling $26.9 billion, for a net margin of 32%. By comparison, Restaurant Brands International, which owns Burger King and other chains, reported a profit margin of only 8% over its past four quarters.
What's also great about McDonald's is that the business doesn't get involved with acquiring other brands, even though, with its financial might, it easily could. By investing in McDonald's, you don't have to worry about how other business units or brands are doing. Instead, you're investing in a high-quality brand that is a leader in the industry and that has demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to changing consumer tastes over the years.
Its rock-solid dividend makes it a slam-dunk buy for long-term investors
Not only is McDonald's an excellent restaurant stock to own due to its financial strength, but it's also been a top dividend growth stock. Last year, it announced a 5% dividend increase, marking the 49th consecutive year it had boosted its payout. When the company inevitably raises its payout again this year, it'll hit the illustrious 50-year mark, and put it in the category of a Dividend King.
The company has generously been raising its payout for years, making it a top option for income investors to buy and hold. It currently yields 2.5%, which is more than double the S&P 500 average of 1.1%. With a stable business, excellent margins, and a terrific brand, this is one of the few stocks I'd be comfortable hanging on to for not only years but even decades, as not only can you benefit from the company's continued growth, but your dividend income is also to rise significantly over the long term.
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David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Restaurant Brands International and recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald's and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This Magnificent Dividend Stock Is the Only Restaurant Name I'd Buy and Never Sell

Legendary investor Warren Buffett advises to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. One way we can try to measure the level of fear in a given stock is through a technical analysis indicator called the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which measures momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30.
In trading on Monday, shares of McDonald's Corp (Symbol: MCD) entered into oversold territory, hitting an RSI reading of 28.3, after changing hands as low as $290.58 per share. By comparison, the current RSI reading of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is 68.0. A bullish investor could look at MCD's 28.3 RSI reading today as a sign that the recent heavy selling is in the process of exhausting itself, and begin to look for entry point opportunities on the buy side. The chart below shows the one year performance of MCD shares:
Looking at the chart above, MCD's low point in its 52 week range is $283.47 per share, with $341.75 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $290.21.
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Oversold Conditions For McDonald's (MCD)

A study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages shows that McDonald's Corp (Symbol: MCD) is the #12 broker pick, on average, out of the 30 stocks making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average, according to ETF Channel. McDonald's Corp also comes in above the median of analyst picks among the broader S&P 500 index components, claiming the #142 spot out of 500.
Below is a chart of rank over time:
MCD is currently trading down about 1.6% midday Monday.
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Broker Darlings of the Dow: McDonald's Ranks As a Top 15 Analyst Pick

Fintel reports that on April 23, 2026, Rothschild & Co upgraded their outlook for McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) from Sell to Neutral.
Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 16.82% Upside
As of April 15, 2026, the average one-year price target for McDonald's is $353.45/share. The forecasts range from a low of $262.60 to a high of $399.00. The average price target represents an increase of 16.82% from its latest reported closing price of $302.55 / share.
See our leaderboard of companies with the largest price target upside.
The projected annual revenue for McDonald's is 25,383MM, a decrease of 5.59%. The projected annual non-GAAP EPS is 13.09.
What is the Fund Sentiment?
There are 3,592 funds or institutions reporting positions in McDonald's. This is an decrease of 868 owner(s) or 19.46% in the last quarter. Average portfolio weight of all funds dedicated to MCD is 0.35%, an increase of 22.74%. Total shares owned by institutions decreased in the last three months by 8.97% to 528,107K shares. The put/call ratio of MCD is 0.89, indicating a bullish outlook.
What are Other Shareholders Doing?
Jpmorgan Chase holds 31,782K shares representing 4.47% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 34,214K shares , representing a decrease of 7.65%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in MCD by 2.10% over the last quarter.
Geode Capital Management holds 17,039K shares representing 2.40% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 16,962K shares , representing an increase of 0.45%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in MCD by 2.23% over the last quarter.
Bank Of America holds 12,420K shares representing 1.75% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 12,761K shares , representing a decrease of 2.75%. The firm increased its portfolio allocation in MCD by 4.94% over the last quarter.
Price T Rowe Associates holds 9,475K shares representing 1.33% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 9,197K shares , representing an increase of 2.93%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in MCD by 46.85% over the last quarter.
Norges Bank holds 9,457K shares representing 1.33% ownership of the company. In its prior filing, the firm reported owning 0K shares , representing an increase of 100.00%.
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This story originally appeared on Fintel.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Rothschild & Co Upgrades McDonald's (MCD)

At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed the latest batch of the 58 most recent 13F filings for the 03/31/2026 reporting period, and noticed that McDonald's Corp (Symbol: MCD) was held by 37 of these funds. When hedge fund managers appear to be thinking alike, we find it is a good idea to take a closer look.
Before we proceed, it is important to point out that 13F filings do not tell the whole story, because these funds are only required to disclose their long positions with the SEC, but are not required to disclose their short positions. A fund making a bearish bet against a stock by shorting calls, for example, might also be long some amount of stock as they trade around their overall bearish position. This long component could show up in a 13F filing and everyone might assume the fund is bullish, but this tells only part of the story because the bearish/short side of the position is not seen.
Having given that caveat, we believe that looking at groups of 13F filings can be revealing, especially when comparing one holding period to another. Below, let's take a look at the change in MCD positions, for this latest batch of 13F filers:
In terms of shares owned, we count 12 of the above funds having increased existing MCD positions from 12/31/2025 to 03/31/2026, with 16 having decreased their positions and 1 new position. Worth noting is that QP Wealth Management LLC, included in this recent batch of 13F filers, exited MCD common stock as of 03/31/2026.
Looking beyond these particular funds in this one batch of most recent filers, we tallied up the MCD share count in the aggregate among all of the funds which held MCD at the 03/31/2026 reporting period (out of the 1,757 we looked at in total). We then compared that number to the sum total of MCD shares those same funds held back at the 12/31/2025 period, to see how the aggregate share count held by hedge funds has moved for MCD. We found that between these two periods, funds increased their holdings by 90,250 shares in the aggregate, from 12,094,834 up to 12,185,084 for a share count increase of approximately 0.75%. The overall top three funds holding MCD on 03/31/2026 were:
We'll keep following the latest 13F filings by hedge fund managers and bring you interesting stories derived from a look at the aggregate information across groups of managers between filing periods. While looking at individual 13F filings can sometimes be misleading due to the long-only nature of the information, the sum total across groups of funds from one reporting period to another can be a lot more revealing and relevant, providing interesting stock ideas that merit further research, like McDonald's Corp (Symbol: MCD).
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

See Which Recent 13F Filers Hold MCD But QP Wealth Management Exited

Key Points
Blackstone, which bought a majority of Jersey Mike's last year, has been pointing at an IPO.
CEO Charlie Morrison brought big profits to shareholders when he took Wingstop public.
There may soon be a new entry in the list of restaurant stocks. Sandwich chain Jersey Mike's disclosed this week that it confidentially filed for an initial public offering, the first step toward going public.
The company, which traces its roots to a modest sandwich shop on the Jersey Shore, is a significant player in a crowded field of submarine sandwich restaurants, which includes Subway, Jimmy John's, Firehouse Subs, and Potbelly. Jersey Mike's has more than 3,000 locations, making it the second-largest submarine sandwich chain in the U.S. behind Subway.
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A confidential IPO means that the company's S-1 and related documentation were filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but haven't been made public yet. That gives Jersey Mike's an opportunity to discuss the filing privately with regulators before it goes public, and make changes as needed before the shares are listed for public trading. And it also allows Jersey Mike's to back out of the deal should market conditions deteriorate.
However, Jersey Mike's has clearly been working toward this moment for a while. Blackstone purchased a majority of the company last year in a deal valuing Jersey Mike's at about $8 billion. And Blackstone brought in former Wingstop CEO Charlie Morrison to run the company. Morrison was with Wingstop when that restaurant chain went public in 2015. Wingstop's performance over the last decade has been phenomenal, with a 700% return that soundly beats both the S&P 500 and major fast-food chains like McDonald's and Wendy's.
Can Morrison bring that same magic to a Jersey Mike's IPO? That's the question that investors need to solve.
A look at Jersey Mike's before its IPO
Jersey Mike's has been a solid business with a great backstory. Founder Peter Cancro started working at a Point Pleasant, New Jersey, sandwich shop called Mike's Subs as a teenager in the 1970s. He bought the restaurant in 1975, when he was just 17, and eventually changed the name and sold franchises.
The chain reported revenue of $309.8 million in 2025, up 10.6% from a year ago. But net income was $183.6 million, down 23.1% from 2024. By way of comparison, Firehouse Subs, a segment of Restaurant Brands International (NYSE: QSR), reported sales growth of 8.6% to $232 million in 2025, but comparable sales growth was only 1.1% because the company increased its restaurant count from 1,345 to 1,449. Operating income rose from $48 million to $56 million.
As Jersey Mike's goes public and more financial records are released, investors should be looking closely at comparable sales -- it's easy to increase revenues when you are rapidly opening stores. True profits from restaurant stocks come from the company's ability to increase same-store sales, because the higher costs of opening new locations don't offset those gains.
Is Jersey Mike's a good investment?
Restaurant and fast food stocks can be very challenging. Customers are more aware than ever of spiraling food costs, which forces restaurants to heavily discount and create new promotions to attract customers. And when the economy is a little shaky, amid fears of inflation and global conflict that roil the market, customers are more hesitant to spend on discretionary items like dining out. In the last year, the S&P 500 restaurant sector has been flat, while the broader index is up more than 38%.
So, an investment in Jersey Mike's IPO falls more on a bet on its CEO. Can Morrison, who led Wingstop to greater heights and a successful IPO a decade ago, find that magic again in a crowded sandwich field?
The S-1 filing, when it comes out, will have some of those answers. But even after Jersey Mike's completes its IPO, I'm holding off on this company until I see a consistent strategy for increasing same-store sales and generating profits, in addition to rising revenue.
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Patrick Sanders has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Restaurant Brands International and Wingstop and recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald's and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Sandwich Chain Jersey Mike's Just Quietly Filed for an IPO. Here's What Investors Need to Know.

In the latest trading session, McDonald's (MCD) closed at $306.94, marking a -1.42% move from the previous day. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.24% for the day. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.01%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.26%.
Coming into today, shares of the world's biggest hamburger chain had gained 0.81% in the past month. In that same time, the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 7.72%, while the S&P 500 gained 6.42%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of McDonald's in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on May 7, 2026. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $2.75, signifying a 3.00% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $6.49 billion, showing a 8.92% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $13.22 per share and a revenue of $28.7 billion, indicating changes of +8.36% and +6.74%, respectively, from the former year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for McDonald's should also be noted by investors. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.12% lower. McDonald's currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In the context of valuation, McDonald's is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 23.56. This expresses a premium compared to the average Forward P/E of 19.3 of its industry.
Investors should also note that MCD has a PEG ratio of 2.81 right now. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. MCD's industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.94 as of yesterday's close.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 175, positioning it in the bottom 29% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
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Here's Why McDonald's (MCD) Fell More Than Broader Market

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (Symbol: UPRO) where we have detected an approximate $162.8 million dollar outflow -- that's a 3.2% decrease week over week (from 40,600,000 to 39,300,000). Among the largest underlying components of UPRO, in trading today Oracle Corp (Symbol: ORCL) is down about 0.1%, International Business Machines Corp (Symbol: IBM) is up about 0.8%, and McDonald's Corp (Symbol: MCD) is lower by about 0.8%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the UPRO Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of UPRO, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, UPRO's low point in its 52 week range is $52.32 per share, with $126.43 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $124.97. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
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Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
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UPRO, ORCL, IBM, MCD: ETF Outflow Alert

Shares of Starbucks Corporation SBUX are showing early signs of a turnaround, driven by a recovery in customer traffic. The company returned to transaction growth in the United States in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 — the first increase in eight quarters — signaling a meaningful inflection in its demand trajectory.
The stock has demonstrated relative resilience, gaining 20.6% over the past year compared with the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry’s 0.8% rise. This outperformance reflects improving investor confidence as Starbucks continues to execute on its turnaround strategy and deliver progress across key operating metrics.
SBUX Stock One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With strengthening demand trends, improved store-level execution and steady international momentum, the focus now shifts to whether Starbucks can build on this momentum and deliver further upside. Let's analyze.
Traffic Recovery Signals Turnaround Momentum for SBUX
A key driver behind Starbucks’ improving narrative is the recovery in customer traffic, which had remained under pressure in prior quarters. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company returned to transaction growth in the United States, with both rewards and non-rewards customers contributing to the improvement. This broad-based recovery suggests that demand is returning across customer cohorts — a critical foundation for sustained growth.
The Starbucks Rewards ecosystem continues to support engagement, with 90-day active members reaching a record 35.5 million. At the same time, growth in non-rewards customers indicates that Starbucks is regaining traction beyond its core loyalty base.
Against this backdrop, Starbucks’ improving traffic trends stand out relative to peers such as Dutch Bros Inc. BROS, McDonald's Corporation MCD and First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. FWRG, where traffic growth remains closely tied to value positioning, menu innovation or daypart-specific demand drivers.
SBUX’s Operational Execution Gains Traction
Starbucks’ focus on improving store execution is delivering tangible results. The Green Apron Service model has enhanced throughput and service consistency, with average cafe and drive-thru service times running below the company’s four-minute target even amid higher traffic levels.
Pilot stores implementing the updated operating model are outperforming the broader system by approximately 200 basis points in comparable sales, driven primarily by transaction growth.
These improvements highlight Starbucks’ ability to scale execution enhancements across its network, strengthening the customer experience and supporting sustained demand recovery.
SBUX’s Innovation Pipeline Supports Incremental Demand
Starbucks is advancing its product strategy to align with evolving consumer preferences. The company has streamlined its menu by approximately 25%-30%, improving operational efficiency and enabling more focused execution in stores.
At the same time, Starbucks is building new product platforms, including protein beverages and customized energy offerings. Management indicated that these platforms are generating strong customer response and repeat engagement, supporting incremental demand and expanding customer occasions.
Adding to its innovation ecosystem, Starbucks recently introduced a beta Starbucks app within ChatGPT, enabling users to discover personalized drink recommendations through conversational AI. This initiative allows customers to explore menu options more intuitively and receive tailored suggestions, enhancing digital engagement and strengthening the brand’s connection with tech-savvy consumers.
The integration reflects Starbucks’ broader push toward digital personalization and seamless customer experiences, complementing its loyalty program and reinforcing its ability to drive incremental traffic through innovation-led engagement.
International Strength Aids SBUX’s Growth Visibility
Beyond North America, Starbucks continues to benefit from solid international performance, which remains a key contributor to its growth profile.
Comparable sales growth across international markets has been supported by strong transaction trends, particularly in China, the U.K. and Japan. China, in particular, has shown encouraging momentum, with comparable sales increasing 7% year over year in the fiscal first quarter.
The company’s planned partnership structure in China is expected to support long-term expansion while improving capital efficiency. At the same time, Starbucks continues to scale its global footprint, targeting 600-650 net new stores in fiscal 2026.
This expansion reinforces Starbucks’ long-term growth runway, particularly when compared with more domestically focused concepts like First Watch Restaurant, which remains more concentrated in the U.S. market.
Fiscal 2026 Outlook Instills Confidence in Starbucks
Starbucks has provided a constructive outlook for fiscal 2026, signaling steady growth and a gradual improvement in profitability as its turnaround strategy gains traction.
The company expects global and U.S. comparable store sales to increase at least 3%, with overall net revenues projected to grow at a similar pace. This outlook reflects continued momentum in transaction growth and improving customer engagement across markets.
On the profitability front, Starbucks anticipates a modest year-over-year expansion in non-GAAP operating margin, supported by strengthening sales leverage and ongoing operational efficiencies.
Earnings expectations further reinforce this improving trajectory. Starbucks projects non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $2.15-$2.40. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 EPS has remained unchanged at $2.31.
SBUX Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SBUX Stock Valuation & Technical Insights
Starbucks stock is currently trading at a premium. SBUX is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 37.18, well above the industry average of 23.92. Other industry players, such as Dutch Bros, McDonald's and First Watch Restaurant, have P/E ratios of 53.29, 22.56 and 45.91, respectively.
SBUX’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a technical perspective, SBUX is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating solid upward momentum and price stability.
SBUX Stock Trades Above 50-Day Moving Average
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Thoughts on SBUX Stock
Starbucks is entering a more constructive phase of its turnaround, with transaction growth, improved execution and steady international performance supporting a strengthening fundamental outlook.
The combination of demand recovery, operational discipline and expanding digital capabilities —including initiatives like the ChatGPT integration — positions the company to deepen customer engagement and sustain momentum.
With a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), Starbucks appears well-positioned for further upside as its turnaround continues to unfold. For investors seeking exposure to a globally scaled consumer brand showing early signs of recovery, the stock presents a compelling opportunity to consider at current levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Starbucks Rebounds on Traffic Growth: Time to Buy the Stock?

Key Points
Dutch Bros shares have softened since McDonald's confirmed it will take its recent test of premium beverages national.
After 19 years of positive comps, is Dutch Bros vulnerable to the McDonald's markdown machine?
History is kind to markets that McDonald's aims to disrupt.
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is expanding its beverage options. For Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS), it's a liquid situation. McDonald's is confirming that it will roll out handcrafted sodas and refreshers next month. Flavored energy drinks will follow this summer.
If you're Dutch Bros, the move by the baron of burgers is both flattering and alarming. The fast-growing provider of quick-service beverages has built an empire on raising the bar for creative drinks that are trending with younger sippers. Now Mickey D's has a straw reaching across the room to drink up Dutch Bros' business? I'm not buying it. It's not just wishful thinking; it's as easy as reading up on history.
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Dutch Bros isn't an overnight success. It started 34 years ago with a pair of brothers -- yes, of Dutch descent -- operating an espresso cart in Oregon. It gradually evolved into a small-box retailer, which now has more than 1,000 locations and a presence in almost half the states in the U.S.
True to its roots, coffee makes up roughly half of its sales. However, its proprietary Blue Rebel line of customized energy drinks now accounts for a quarter of its business. Dutch Bros also offers refreshers and handcrafted sodas. McDonald's jumping in at presumably lower price points could be problematic, but history is on Dutch Bros' side.
CosMc's rewind
McDonald's has always tried to make a splash in new markets. Three years ago, it introduced a concept called CosMc's, in which artisan beverages would be front and center. Leaning on the same drive-thru model as Dutch Bros, it led with colorful, sweetened refreshers and energy drinks. McDonald's opened the first location in its home state of Illinois, then added four stores in Texas in 2024. It shut them all down in the spring of last year.
That may have seemed like a quick surrender, but McDonald's was just dipping its toe into the sparkling, fruity waters where popping boba replaces beach balls. It shifted to test some of CosMc's premium beverages at hundreds of McDonald's locations. It was more a matter of when -- not if -- the company would take this platform countrywide.
Dutch Bros stock is feeling the pinch. As the market has pushed higher through the first three trading days of this week, Dutch Bros has declined each day, resulting in a 6% week-to-date slide through Wednesday's close. Investors have seen disrupters get disrupted before, and the narrative is convincing -- until you check in on McDonald's.
Pour unfortunate souls
McDonald's has been taking aim at Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) since its coffee bar McCafé introduced fancier coffee beverages in 2009 and blended frappes in 2010. That hasn't derailed the bullish case for investing in Starbucks. While that coffee chain has been struggling in recent years, it has nothing to do with what Ronald McDonald did 17 years ago.
Starbucks' revenue has nearly quadrupled since fiscal 2009. McDonald's revenue is up just 15%, though that figure is affected by its handing off so many of its company-owned restaurants to franchisees over the years. If anything, McDonald's entry into premium java products validated Starbucks, while improving its own visibility.
Starbucks and fast-casual chain Panera have been diving into refreshers and other charged beverages for a couple of years now, but they haven't slowed down Dutch Bros; as I mentioned earlier, the chain has been posting positive annual comps for almost two decades now. McDonald's may wind up with a slice of the market, but the pie itself will get even bigger. The burger giant will be doing Dutch Bros and other retail beverage stocks a favor by educating the market.
McDonald's will win, too. Dutch Bros is unique for a beverage company in that the afternoon is the busiest part of its day; that is not the case at McDonald's or at Starbucks. Dutch Bros is also growing faster than concepts looking to unseat its momentum. Revenue soared 29% in its latest blowout quarter, as continued expansion and a 7.7% pop in same-store sales combined to deliver another strong performance.
It's a good time to be looking at companies growing in the handcrafted space. Let the bobas hit the floor.
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Rick Munarriz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Dutch Bros and Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald's and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.