Joby Aviation, Inc.

How Investing Has Changed in the Last 5 Years

Key Points
Joby is a leading player in the electric vertical take-off and landing industry, which is in its early growth stages.
There are plenty of question marks surrounding Joby's business, however.
Goldman Sachs projects the eVTOL market could be worth trillions -- but it could take decades before it gets there.
Shares of Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) have been flying this year, and the share price is up more than 165% in just the past six months. As a leading company in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry, investors are optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, with the company planning to begin commercial air taxi operations next year.
But is the market getting ahead of itself, and has Joby's stock risen too quickly, too soon? Let's take a closer look at whether it's a good buy right now, or if you're better off waiting until its value comes down a bit more.
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Has Joby's valuation skyrocketed too high?
The eVTOL market is in its early stages, and with Joby not yet beginning its commercial operations, investors are paying for future growth right now. Its market cap is north of $15 billion, which means it already falls into the category of being a large-cap stock. Normally, you'd expect large-cap stocks to be established and fairly safe businesses to invest in.
And to put its valuation into perspective in another way, consider that analysts at MarketsandMarkets project the entire eVTOL aircraft market to be worth just under $5 billion by 2030. Joby already exceeds that today.
It could be years before eVTOLs become common in the skies. And that creates numerous question marks about not only Joby's valuation but also the eVTOL market as a whole. The big test will come if and when the company starts scaling up production of its aircraft, to see what its financials look like after producing hundreds of aircraft per year, as Joby plans to eventually do. Investors who are buying shares of Joby at its current valuation are taking a big leap of faith in the business, that it's going to be not only a dominant player in the industry in the future, but also a profitable one.
Any way you look at the stock right now, there's plenty of risk involved with it. And the higher Joby's valuation goes, the more room there is for the stock to decline if there's any sign of adversity or hints that the outlook may not be as rosy as growth investors expect.
The ultimate long-term play, or gamble?
There's plenty of potential and uncertainty when it comes to the eVTOL market. In the very long term, Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the global eVTOL market might be worth as much as $9 trillion -- but that's by 2050. Under such an assumption, a case can easily be made that Joby and any eVTOL stock that's still around by then could be a cheap buy today.
But things can, of course, change drastically when looking at decades. The eVTOL market may look considerably different, other technologies may take its place, and other stocks might be the big benefactors of them. While investing is long-term in nature, there's a reason why Warren Buffett likes to invest in companies that have established and strong businesses, as there's a lot more predictability in their growth over the years. With the eVTOL market, it's anyone's guess what might happen decades from now or who the major players might be.
Is Joby's stock worth buying today?
Investing in Joby's stock is going to come with risk, regardless of what price it's trading at. There are multiple factors to consider that are impossible to get answers to right now, including how quickly it will be able to scale, how much revenue it might bring in, and when, and what its earnings will look like.
Although there may be less room for it to fall if it's valued at $5 billion versus $15 billion, you can still stand to lose a lot of money by investing in a business at such an early stage in its development, especially in an industry that's also just getting started. Joby is an intriguing stock to watch, but it's hard to gauge what its value should be. If it's a winner in the eVTOL market and the industry takes off, then it could be a steal even at its current price. But if the market turns out to be a dud, then even a $1 billion valuation might prove to be too rich for Joby.
Joby is a long-term investment that comes with significant risk. If you're comfortable with the risk and uncertainty and are willing to hold on to it for years, then it might be worth making a small investment in the eVTOL stock. But unless you can afford to leave it in your portfolio and forget about it, you might be better off taking a wait-and-see approach with the stock.
Should you invest $1,000 in Joby Aviation right now?
Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $602,049!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,105,092!*
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*Stock Advisor returns as of October 20, 2025
David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Should You Buy Joby Aviation Stock Now or Wait for a Dip?

Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for JOBY AVIATION INC (JOBY). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, JOBY rates highest using our Small-Cap Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Motley Fool. This strategy looks for small cap growth stocks with solid fundamentals and strong price performance.
JOBY AVIATION INC (JOBY) is a large-cap growth stock in the Aerospace & Defense industry. The rating using this strategy is 52% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
Detailed Analysis of JOBY AVIATION INC
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Validea Detailed Fundamental Analysis - JOBY

Key Points
Joby's plans sound exciting, but this remains a pre-revenue story.
Certification is the make-or-break moment for the company.
Even after that point, profitability will still be years away.
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has become one of the most closely watched names in electric aviation. The company aims to make air taxis a reality for everyday use -- offering fast, quiet, and zero-emission flights across congested cities.
The story is bold. Backed by Toyota Motor, ANA Holdings, and a pending deal with Blade Air Mobility, Joby looks well-positioned to lead the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) race. Its regulatory progress and international partnerships have also made the stock a popular talking point among early investors.
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But excitement doesn't equal investability. Joby's long-term vision is compelling, yet the road ahead still carries significant risks. Before purchasing the stock, investors should be aware of three key red flags that could impact its future performance.
1. Limited commercial revenue
Despite years of engineering progress and growing global partnerships, Joby remains a pre-revenue company. While it generated $15,000 in revenue in the first half of 2025, that amount isn't significant compared to its expenses. Management expects commercial service to begin in 2026, but for now, every dollar it spends must come from its cash reserves.
To put that into perspective, in the second quarter of 2025, Joby posted an operating loss of $168 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $132 million. Its six-month cash burn was approximately $245 million (operating cash outflow plus capital expenditures), or roughly $500 million annually. The company ended the quarter with $991 million in cash and short-term investments -- sufficient to fund operations for approximately two years at current spending levels.
That's a good two years of runway, but not enough to reach profitability. Joby will likely require additional funding, whether through equity or debt, before it generates significant revenue. Any new financing could dilute existing shareholders or add leverage to its balance sheet.
In other words, investors should view Joby for what it is today: a company still in its development phase, not yet a fully functioning business.
2. Certification and execution risk remain high
Joby's future hinges now on a key milestone: FAA certification. Without it, the company can't fly passengers or deliver aircraft. The good news is that Joby leads the pack. It's now more than halfway through Stage 4 of the FAA's type certification process. Its first "conforming" aircraft -- the production-standard version -- is already in final assembly, and the company expects flight testing with the FAA to begin in 2026.
That progress gives Joby a clear edge, but certification for eVTOL aircraft remains uncharted territory. The FAA has never approved a design of this kind before. Even minor technical questions or new safety requirements could delay the process, pushing commercial flights further into the future.
And certification is only the beginning. Producing hundreds of aircraft while maintaining tight safety standards will test Joby's operations. Aerospace programs frequently encounter cost overruns and supply chain challenges during the scale-up phase. Toyota's involvement adds experience, but manufacturing complexity can still derail timelines.
If Joby misses its targets, investor optimism could fade quickly.
3. The path to profitability is long
Even after certification, Joby faces a significant challenge in turning its concept into a sustainable business. The company's model depends on owning and operating its own air taxi network -- a capital-intensive strategy that requires aircraft production, pilot training, maintenance, and vertiport access. Each of these adds costs before a single passenger takes off.
Joby's planned acquisition of Blade Air Mobility's passenger business should speed up its market entry. The deal gives Joby access to terminals, customers, and existing routes in New York and Europe. But it also adds short-term expenses and operational complexity, especially as Joby integrates new systems and staff.
Meanwhile, competition is intensifying. Archer Aviation and other start-ups are targeting similar launch timelines and customers. If multiple eVTOL companies debut around 2026, early pricing power could be limited, stretching the time it takes for Joby to reach breakeven.
The company's future success depends on scaling efficiently while maintaining safety and reliability. That's no small feat, even with strong partners and funding.
What is means for investors
Joby Aviation leads the eVTOL field in regulatory progress, partnerships, and manufacturing readiness. It's closer to commercialization than most peers, and that gives it a legitimate first-mover advantage. Still, investors shouldn't mistake technological progress for financial stability. Joby remains pre-revenue, burns hundreds of millions of dollars per year, and faces both regulatory and execution risks.
The technology is promising -- but the stock remains speculative. For long-term investors, Joby could eventually emerge as a leader in urban air mobility. Until then, it's worth keeping on your watch list while waiting for evidence that this bold vision can turn into a viable business.
Should you invest $1,000 in Joby Aviation right now?
Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $655,428!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,103,559!*
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*Stock Advisor returns as of October 13, 2025
Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Thinking of Buying Joby Aviation? Here Are 3 Red Flags to Consider First.

Key Points
Joby Aviation aims to build an eVTOL ecosystem.
The company is leading in regulatory certification.
Joby's commercialization efforts are gaining steam.
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has long been one of the most ambitious names in electric aviation. The company aims to integrate air taxis into everyday life, offering fast, quiet, and zero-emission flights across congested cities.
While the idea still sounds futuristic, Joby's latest quarterly report shows that this future is inching closer to reality. The company continues to make steady progress toward certification, expand its manufacturing footprint, and prepare for commercial operations.
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Here's why investors are starting to take notice.
1. What Joby Aviation does
Founded in 2009 in California, Joby Aviation designs, manufactures, and plans to operate electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for urban air mobility. Its aircraft can carry a pilot and four passengers, flying up to 150 miles on a single charge at speeds exceeding 200 mph.
Joby's business model blends aircraft manufacturing with direct flight operations. Instead of just selling planes, the company aims to operate its own air taxi service, offering short flights between cities, airports, and suburbs. This vertically integrated approach mirrors companies like Tesla, which own the technology, production, and customer experience.
The company's revenue strategy rests on three pillars:
Operating its own air taxi service, similar to how airlines run routes
Selling aircraft to partners and governments, including the U.S. Department of Defense
Partnering internationally to expand operations in markets such as Japan and the Middle East
It's an ambitious blueprint, but if the company can execute it, it will create a diversified business, giving Joby greater control over pricing, safety, and profitability as the business scales.
2. Joby's certification lead could define the industry
In an industry crowded by hopeful start-ups, Joby stands apart for its regulatory progress. The company is now more than halfway through stage 4 of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification process, which comprises a total of five stages that must be completed before any eVTOL can operate commercially.
That might sound bureaucratic, but it's a big deal. The FAA has never certified an eVTOL aircraft before, and Joby's work could set the standard for how future electric aircraft get approval.
Joby's first FAA-conforming aircraft has entered final assembly, paving the way for official FAA flight testing in 2026. The U.S. government's new executive order on drone dominance also supports the company's mission by prioritizing the domestic production of advanced aircraft, which could expedite future approvals.
If Joby maintains its current pace, it may become the first eVTOL company in the U.S. to clear for commercial service -- a decisive advantage that could define market leadership for years to come.
3. Commercialization is no longer a distant dream
Joby isn't just testing prototypes anymore; it's building the business around them.
In Dubai, the company recently completed 21 piloted full-transition flights under 110-degree Fahrenheit desert conditions -- proving that its aircraft can handle real-world heat, altitude, and operations. Dubai's vertiport network, including one at DXB Airport, is on track to open in early 2026. That could make the United Arab Emirates one of Joby's first commercial launch markets.
In the U.S., Joby plans to acquire Blade Air Mobility's passenger business. The deal instantly gives Joby access to 12 terminals and more than 50,000 existing customers, accelerating its entry into New York and European markets.
Internationally, partnerships with ANA Holdings in Japan and Abdul Latif Jameel in Saudi Arabia expand Joby's reach into Asia and the Middle East. These regions have already expressed strong government support for advanced air mobility, making them natural early adopters.
With multiple geographic entry points and a vertically integrated model, the company is positioning itself as more than an aircraft manufacturer. It's building an entire aviation ecosystem.
What does it mean for investors?
Joby Aviation is transitioning from concept to commercialization -- a stage where many aviation start-ups often falter. However, its lead in certification, expanding manufacturing capacity, and global partnerships suggest it has a good chance of building a sustainable business.
The company still faces a long road to profitability, and investors should treat the stock as speculative. But among eVTOL competitors, Joby now looks less like a moonshot and more like a legitimate contender to bring flying taxis to market.
Investors looking for the next big thing should keep the company on their radar.
Should you invest $1,000 in Joby Aviation right now?
Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $657,979!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,122,746!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 187% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 7, 2025
Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why Smart Investors Are Paying Attention to Joby Aviation Stock

Key Points
The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF has been a big winner since its inception in 2018.
The iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF is relatively new, but it provides exposure to many top AI stocks.
The ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF gives investors a way to invest heavily in robotics stocks.
Some technological innovations are transformative. The introduction of the personal computer was one great example. So was the development of the internet. We can include the launch of the smartphone, especially the iPhone, on the list too.
Today, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, and robotics are rapidly changing how we live. And these areas present tremendous opportunities for forward-thinking investors.
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You could attempt to pick the individual stocks that are likely to be the biggest winners. Another approach, though, is to invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on AI. Here are three AI ETFs to buy now for the coming tech revolution.
1. Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF
AI didn't become a big deal only after OpenAI introduced its ChatGPT large language model (LLM) in late 2022. South Korean financial services company Mirae Asset launched the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (NASDAQ: AIQ) on May 11, 2018.
The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF owns 88 stocks. Its largest holdings include Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA), chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), electronics manufacturer Samsung Electronics, electric vehicle and humanoid robot maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
This ETF's annual expense ratio is 0.68%, which is higher than many passive index ETFs. However, the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF has delivered an average annual return since inception of 17.9%. The ETF is up more than 30% year to date. With those kinds of gains, most investors won't mind the expenses.
As you might expect, the stocks in this ETF's portfolio tend to be richly valued. The average price-to-earnings ratio is roughly 26.8. Again, though, with the historic returns the fund has delivered, valuation hasn't been a problem.
2. iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF
Financial services giant BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) offers hundreds of ETFs. I think its best AI-focused fund is the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (NYSEMKT: BAI). This ETF is relatively new, though: BlackRock launched it on Oct. 21, 2024.
The iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF is, as its name indicates, actively managed. BlackRock's investment team researches the fundamentals of global AI and technology stocks without excluding any based solely on their market cap.
This ETF currently owns 39 stocks. Its top holdings include GPU maker Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), semiconductor maker Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), software giant Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), and database pioneer Oracle (NYSE: ORCL).
The iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF's annual expense ratio is 0.68%. However, with fee waivers currently offered by BlackRock, the net expense ratio is only 0.55%.
3. ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF
If you want to invest more heavily in robotics, the ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF (ASX: ROBO) could be right up your alley. ROBO Global and Exchange Traded Concepts launched it on Oct. 21, 2013, making it one of the oldest AI ETFs on the market.
The ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF owns 77 stocks. Many of those are robotics stocks, but not all of them. Its top holdings include warehouse robotics company Symbotic (NASDAQ: SYM), air taxi innovator Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), Japanese automation and robotics company Fanuc (OTC: FANUY), automated test equipment and robotics company Teradyne (NASDAQ: TER), and Chinese robot maker Ubtech Robotics.
This ETF has delivered an average annual return of 8.6% since inception. However, it's been a much bigger winner more recently, averaging an annual return of roughly 16.9% over the last three years. The fund is up more than 20% in 2025.
You will pay a little more for the ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF than for the other two on our list. Its annual expense ratio is 0.95%. But if you believe that robots will become much more widely adopted in the future, the expenses associated with this ETF should pale in comparison with the long-term returns it could generate.
Should you invest $1,000 in Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF right now?
Before you buy stock in Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $654,835!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,159,218!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,081% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 192% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 7, 2025
Keith Speights has positions in Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Symbotic, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group, BlackRock, Broadcom, Fanuc, and Teradyne and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

3 AI ETFs to Buy Now for the Coming Tech Revolution

Joby Aviation Inc (NYSE: JOBY) closed at $17.37, down 8.14%. Trading volume reached 112 million shares, about three times its three-month average of 38 million.
U.S. markets finished higher. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) rose 0.58% to 6,753.72, while the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) gained 1.12% to 23,043.38, supported by strength in technology and growth stocks.
Among eVTOL peers, Archer Aviation Inc (NYSE: ACHR) slipped 0.16% to $12.46, and Vertical Aerospace Ltd (NYSE: EVTL) declined 1.34% to $5.87.
Joby's sharp decline came as momentum from earlier speculation about Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) possible entry into eVTOL aircraft faded following the automaker's October 7 event, which focused exclusively on its car lineup. The stock also faced additional pressure after Joby priced a $514 million public share offering at $16.85, roughly 11% below its prior close. The funds will support manufacturing, certification, and vertiport operations. Despite recent demonstration flights that showcased Joby's aircraft progress, investors appeared focused on near-term dilution and cooling eVTOL enthusiasm. Investors may now watch whether the offering proceeds help strengthen Joby's cash position ahead of certification milestones.
Should you invest $1,000 in Joby Aviation right now?
Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $642,328!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,134,270!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,064% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 191% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 7, 2025
Daily Stock News has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. This article was generated with GPT-5, OpenAI's large-scale language generation model and has been reviewed by The Motley Fool's AI quality control systems. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stock Market Today: Joby Drops After Discounted Offering and Fading Tesla Buzz

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed unchanged, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.19%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.60%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose +1.17%.
Most stock indexes rallied on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting fresh all-time highs. Strength in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks on Wednesday supported gains in the broader market. Optimism that growth in the AI sector and spending on artificial intelligence will translate into corporate profits is a major bullish factor for stocks. Stocks are also underpinned by hopes that a resilient US economy and additional Fed easing will continue to support the economy.
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US MBA mortgage applications fell -4.7% in the week ended October 3, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.2% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -7.7%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -3 bp to 6.43% from 6.46% in the prior week.
The minutes of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting had a hawkish tone, stating, "Most policymakers judged that it would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of the year," but "a majority of participants emphasized upside risks to their outlooks for inflation."
The shutdown of the US government is now into its second week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including Tuesday's Aug US trade report and last Friday's monthly payroll report. A prolonged shutdown could also delay the government's inflation data, scheduled for release on October 15. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingered, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don't align with President Trump's priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The ongoing US government shutdown, expectations of additional Fed easing, President Trump's criticism of the Fed, and political uncertainty in France and Japan are all driving investors to safe-haven assets, such as gold and Bitcoin. Gold prices soared above $4,000 an ounce to another record high on Wednesday. According to the latest data, the People's Bank of China added to its gold holdings in September for an eleventh consecutive month.
Market focus this week will be on any new developments regarding tariffs, trade, or attempts by lawmakers to end the ongoing US government shutdown. On Thursday, Fed Chair Powell will give welcoming remarks at a Fed Community Bank Conference. On Friday, the University of Michigan Oct consumer sentiment index is expected to fall -1.1 to 54.0.
Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results that are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2%, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets on Wednesday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.64%. China's Shanghai Composite did not trade and is closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.45%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Wednesday closed down by -2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.4 bp to 4.127%. T-note prices gave up early gains on Wednesday and turned lower after the S&P 500 climbed to a new record high, which curbed safe-haven demand for government debt securities. Weak demand for the Treasury's $39 billion auction of 10-year T-notes also weighed on T-note prices Wednesday, as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.48, below the 10-auction average of 2.57.
T-notes initially moved higher on Wednesday, amid concerns about the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
European government bond yields on Wednesday moved lower. The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 3-week low of 2.666% and finished down -3.1 bp at 2.679%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell by -1.0 bp to 4.709%.
German Aug industrial production fell -4.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m and the biggest decline in almost 3.5 years.
ECB Governing Council Member Muller said the Eurozone economy is slowly picking up and inflation is in line with the ECB's 2% target.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks rallied on Wednesday, providing a supportive factor for the broader market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Dell Technologies (DELL) closed up more than +9%, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +6%. In addition, Micron Technology (MU) and ON Semiconductor (ON) closed up more than +5%, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed up more than +3%. Finally, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), Nvidia (NVDA), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) closed up more than +2%.
Gold mining stocks moved higher on Wednesday after the price of gold soared over $4,000 an ounce to a new record high. Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) closed up more than +3%, and Newmont (NEM) closed up more than +1%.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) closed up more than +8% after signing an agreement to provide direct-to-cellular connectivity when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026.
Confluent (CFLT) closed up more than +7% after Reuters reported the company is exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed up more than +6% after signing a contract with iQPS to launch three more satellites for the Japanese company.
Datadog (DDOG) closed up more than +6% after Bernstein raised its price target on the stock to $170 from $147.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed up more than +5% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $48.
Constellation Energy (CEG) closed up more than +4% after Seaport Global Securities upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $407.
Penguin Solutions (PENG) closed down more than 15% after forecasting fiscal 2026 sales of $1.31 billion to $1.59 billion, with the midpoint below the consensus of $1.48 billion.
Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after rival Equifax said its VantageScore 4.0 service will offer mortgage credit scores at $4.50 through the end of 2027.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) closed down more than -7% after offering a $500 million block of shares overnight in a range of $16.85-$17.35, well below Tuesday's closing price of $18.91.
Defensive food-producing companies retreated on Wednesday as the overall market strengthened. Tyson Foods (TSN) closed down more than -3%. Also, J M Smucker (SJM) and General Mills (GIS) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Kraft Heinz (KHC), Mondelez International (MDLZ), Conagra Brands (CAG), and the Campbell Company (CPB) closed down more than -1%.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) closed down more than -3% after announcing it intends to offer $1.3 billion in convertible senior notes due 2031.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down more than -1% after TD Cowen cut its price target on the stock to $199 from $212.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) closed down more than -1% after Oppenheimer & Co. downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.
Earnings Reports(10/9/2025)
Apogee Enterprises Inc (APOG), Applied Digital Corp (APLD), Byrna Technologies Inc (BYRN), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE), Neogen Corp (NEOG), Oil-Dri Corp of America (ODC), Park Aerospace Corp (PKE), PepsiCo Inc (PEP).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Power Higher on AI Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.36%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.57%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.39%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.59%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 just below Tuesday’s record highs. Strength in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks today is supporting gains in the broader market. Optimism that growth in the AI sector and spending on artificial intelligence will translate into corporate profits is a major bullish factor for stocks. Stocks are also underpinned by hopes that a resilient US economy and additional Fed easing will continue to support the economy. In addition, lower bond yields are bullish for stocks as the 10-year T-note yield is down -1 bp to 4.11%.
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US MBA mortgage applications fell -4.7% in the week ended October 3, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.2% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -7.7%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -3 bp to 6.43% from 6.46% in the prior week.
The shutdown of the US government is now into its second week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including Tuesday’s Aug US trade report and last Friday’s monthly payroll report. A prolonged shutdown could also delay the government’s inflation data, scheduled for release on October 15. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingered, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The ongoing US government shutdown, expectations of additional Fed easing, President Trump’s assault on the Fed, and political uncertainty in France and Japan are all driving investors to haven assets, such as gold and Bitcoin. Gold prices soared above $4,000 an ounce to another record high today. According to the latest data, the People’s Bank of China added to its gold holdings in September for an eleventh consecutive month.
Market focus this week will be on any new developments regarding tariffs, trade, or attempts by lawmakers to end the ongoing US government shutdown. Later today, the minutes of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, Fed Chair Powell will give welcoming remarks at a Fed Community Bank Conference. On Friday, the University of Michigan Oct consumer sentiment index is expected to fall -1.1 to 54.0.
Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results that are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2%, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.53%. China’s Shanghai Composite did not trade and is closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.45%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up by +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.4 bp to 4.109%. T-note prices are supported today by the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Supply pressures are limiting gains in T-note prices as the Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year T-notes later today as part of this week’s $119 billion of T-note and T-bond auction package.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 3-week low of 2.666% and is down -3.2 bp at 2.678%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -1.7 bp to 4.702%.
German Aug industrial production fell -4.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m and the biggest decline in almost 3.5 years.
ECB Governing Council Member Muller said the Eurozone economy is slowly picking up and inflation is in line with the ECB’s 2% target.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
Chip makers and AI infrastructure stocks are climbing today, a supportive factor for the broader market. Dell Technologies (DELL) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4% and ON Semiconductor (ON) is up more than +3%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.
Gold mining stocks are moving higher today after the price of gold soared over $4,000 an ounce to a new record high. Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) are up more than +2%, and Newmont (NEM) is up more than +1%.
Confluent (CFLT) is up more than +11% after Reuters reported the company is exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is up more than +8% after signing an agreement to provide direct-to-cellular connectivity when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up more than +7% after signing a contract with iQPS to launch three more satellites for the Japanese company.
Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +5% after Bernstein raised its price target on the stock to $170 from $147.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +4% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $48.
Constellation Energy (CEG) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Seaport Global Securities upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $407.
Penguin Solutions (PENG) is down more than -16% after forecasting fiscal 2026 sales of $1.31 billion-$1.59 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $1.48 billion.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) is down more than -11% after offering a $500 million block of shares overnight in a range of $16.85-$17.35, well below Tuesday’s closing price of $18.91.
Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after rival Equifax said its VantageScore 4.0 service will offer mortgage credit scores at $4.50 through the end of 2027.
Defensive food-producing companies are sliding today as the overall market strengthens. J M Smucker (SJM) is down more than -2%. Also, Tyson Foods (TSN), General Mills (GIS), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), and the Campbell Company (CPB) are down more than -1%.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is down more than -2% after TD Cown cut its price target on the stock to $199 from $212.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is down more than -2% after announcing it intends to offer $1.3 billion in convertible senior notes due 2031.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) is down more than -1% after Oppenheimer & Co. downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.
Earnings Reports(10/8/2025)
Acuity Inc (AYI), Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), Novagold Resources Inc (NG), Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV), RPM International Inc (RPM).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Climb as AI Investment Accelerates

In trading on Wednesday, the Simplify Macro Strategy ETF is outperforming other ETFs, up about 13.8% on the day. Components of that ETF showing particular strength include shares of Confluent, up about 12.1% and shares of Teladoc Health, up about 10.2% on the day.
And underperforming other ETFs today is the JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF, off about 1.1% in Wednesday afternoon trading. Among components of that ETF with the weakest showing on Wednesday were shares of Joby Aviation, lower by about 10%, and shares of Plug Power, lower by about 8.5% on the day.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.