Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services and products to businesses, the United States and international governments, non-governmental organizations, and consumers worldwide. The company offers postpaid mobile voice and data satellite communications; prepaid mobile voice satellite communications; push-to-talk; broadband data; and Internet of Things (IoT) services. It also provides hosted payload and other data services, such as satellite time and location services; and inbound connections from the public switched telephone network, short message, subscriber identity module, activation, customer reactivation, and other peripheral services. In addition, the company offers voice and data solutions comprising personnel tracking devices; asset tracking devices for equipment, vehicles, and aircrafts; beyond-line-of-sight aircraft communications applications; maritime communications applications; specialized communications solutions for high-value individuals; mobile communications and data devices for the military and other government agencies, such as secure satellite handsets, as well as netted voice, messaging, and paging services; and maintenance services for the United States government's dedicated gateway. Further, it provides satellite handsets, voice and data modems, broadband data devices, and IoT data devices; various accessories for its devices that include batteries, holsters, earbud headphones, portable auxiliary antennas, antenna adaptors, USB data cables, charging units, and others; and engineering and support services. Iridium Communications Inc. sells its products and services to commercial end users through a wholesale distribution network that include service providers, and value-added resellers and manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Iridium Holdings LLC and changed its name to Iridium Communications Inc. in September 2009. Iridium Communications Inc. is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Iridium remains a high-quality but expensive business: strong liquidity and high margins are combined with noticeably elevated valuation multiples. P/E, P/S, and P/B are significantly above industry medians, which means the market is already pricing in a substantial part of future growth. At the same time, P/FCF is also above average, although not as extreme as P/S and P/B, so the degree of overvaluation on a cash-flow basis looks moderate, but it does not disappear. The company’s strength lies in its stable gross margin and operating margin, which remain at a high level and look better than the industry’s, as well as comfortable quick and current ratios. However, earnings momentum is weaker than desired: net income and operating income have noticeably declined from higher levels last year, and EPS remains low relative to the company’s valuation. ROE looks decent, but ROA and ROI are below industry benchmarks, indicating less-than-ideal returns on assets and capital. The debt burden remains high: debt/equity and long-term debt are significantly above the median, which limits revaluation potential and increases sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing. Revenue and gross profit are generally stable, but without any clear acceleration, so the fundamentals do not justify an aggressive increase in the target price. Dividend yield has declined compared with last year, reducing the stock’s appeal for income investors. Overall, the picture is that of a resilient but no longer cheap asset with solid operating qualities and limited upside without an acceleration in earnings. Therefore, a moderate conservative downward adjustment is appropriate rather than a deep revision of the forecast.

Iridium Communications Inc

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Strong index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Слабый индекс, незначительно вырос. Рынок на стороне быков.

Weak index, slightly up. The market is on the bulls' side.

Средний индекс, незначительно вырос. Отток средств из лонгов на высоком уровне.

Medium index, slightly up. Outflow of funds from longs at a high level.

IRDM’s strong margins and liquidity are offset by a rich valuation and high debt burden; earnings and return on capital do not justify raising the target.

Key Points
Rocket Lab's backlog hit a record $2.36 billion at midyear, up 137% year over year.
Neutron, the company's bigger reusable rocket, is targeted to reach its launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026.
A $100 share price would value the company around $70 billion on its post-deal share count.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) touched a 52-week high of $151 in late May. The stock trades around $74 as of this writing, about 51% off the peak. Along the way, the company sold $1.94 billion in stock to help pay for its pending purchase of Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM).
Rocket Lab stock closed above $100 as recently as early July, though, so a return to triple digits would be a rebound, not new territory. And I think it happens. My prediction is that the stock trades above $100 again before 2029.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
The gain is around 35%, or roughly 14% a year with just over two years to pull it off. What needs to go right underneath is the demanding part.
Image source: Getty Images.
A $70 billion price tag
Rocket Lab began August with around 598 million common shares outstanding, and September's share sale added 29.3 million more. Another 41 million or so preferred shares can convert to common stock, and Iridium shareholders will get some of their payment in Rocket Lab stock at closing, which the companies expect in mid-2027. That comes to around 700 million shares.
At $100 a share, that total puts Rocket Lab's market value near $70 billion, up from roughly $49 billion today (before any Iridium shares).
And $49 billion is already pricey for a company bringing in revenue at a rate of around $1 billion a year (management expects $250 million to $265 million this quarter). In other words, the price is over 40 times sales.
A rise to $100, then, likely needs to come from revenue instead of an even higher sales multiple.
Say sales roughly triple to around $3 billion by 2028 as Rocket Lab's own business keeps compounding and Iridium (around $872 million of 2025 revenue) contributes a full year. That'd put a $70 billion valuation at around 23 times sales. Put another way, the stock could climb 35% while the sales multiple roughly halves -- if that much revenue arrives on time.
Space systems does most of the work
Contracted work keeps that from being pure fantasy. Rocket Lab closed June with a record $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% year over year, after starting 2026 at around $1.85 billion and finishing March at $2.2 billion. It rose even while the company drew record revenue out of it. Around 45% of the June total is expected to become revenue within 12 months. And roughly $1.4 billion of it is in space systems (the satellite and components part of the business).
Second-quarter revenue hit a record of $234 million, up 62% year over year. Space systems made up $189.5 million of that, almost twice the year-ago number (acquisitions helped), or around 81% of the total.
The deals haven't let up since. In the second-quarter release, CEO Sir Peter Beck said the company had already entered into over $1 billion of new contracts across launch and space systems in the third quarter (including options).
Neutron needs to fly -- and keep flying
Launch is the smaller business now, so Neutron matters for this prediction. Launch services brought in $44.6 million of second-quarter revenue from six Electron missions, a bit less than a year ago.
Neutron, the larger reusable rocket meant to put Rocket Lab in direct competition with SpaceX, is designed to change that. The company targets bringing the rocket to its launch pad in this year's fourth quarter, but it said in its latest quarterly filing that the window for a launch by year-end is shrinking.
Demand is already lining up. Rocket Lab signed five dedicated Neutron launches in the first quarter, and the company said in August that its total launch backlog tops 90 missions. A Space Force contract worth up to $397 million covers spacecraft due to launch on Neutron.
For the stock to hold $100, Neutron probably has to debut in 2027 and fly repeatedly in 2028, making launch a second growth engine.
Granted, the growth still isn't profitable: the second-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss was $8.8 million, against a $27.6 million loss in the year-ago quarter. But guidance calls for the loss to rise again, to between $17 million and $23 million this quarter.
Will Rocket Lab stock trade above $100 again before 2029? I think so. After all, the market paid $151 for this growth stock in late May, and a big chunk of the revenue the price needs is already under contract.
But the conditions are demanding. The rocket hasn't flown, the deal isn't expected to close until mid-2027, and the losses haven't stopped.
A prediction isn't a buy recommendation, though. Today's price around $74 already pays for years of that execution going right. While I expect the stock to get there, I'm not buying it today.
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Prediction: Rocket Lab Stock Trades Above $100 Again Before 2029

Key Points
This was a yay-or-nay poll on Rocket Lab's proposal to acquire Iridium.
Such a deal would give the space company a set of unique telecom assets.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) and Iridium (NASDAQ:IRDM) have taken a significant step toward fusing their businesses together. Late Thursday afternoon, both companies announced in a joint press release that Iridium shareholders voted in favor of an acquisition by Rocket Lab. The "yes" vote was overwhelming, with voters representing 81% of Iridium's outstanding common shares in favor of the move.
The news came barely over two months after Rocket Lab and Iridium announced they agreed to what was termed a merger, which in reality is an acquisition by the former company. Let's go over the current state of the situation, and gaze into the crystal ball to see how it'll change the bulked-up Rocket Lab.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
8 billion reasons to get excited
The terms of the deal stipulate that Iridium investors are to receive $27 in cash for each of their shares. They'll also be given a number of Rocket Lab shares, yet to be determined, to bring the payout up to the fixed acquisition price of $54 per share of Iridium stock. Zooming out, the total enterprise value is roughly $8 billion.
That's unchanged from the terms agreed in July when the two companies first announced their agreement. Similarly, they continue to expect the deal to close by the middle of next year. It remains subject to approval by the relevant regulatory bodies.
Both companies professed to be over the moon about the vote. Rocket Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck was quoted as saying that the poll's result draws the two "closer to combining Iridium's trusted global network, spectrum and decades of operating experience with Rocket Lab's extensive launch and space systems capabilities to unlock a new era of space applications."
For his part, Iridium CEO Matt Desch was quoted as saying that the pair have "complementary capabilities, a shared commitment to innovation, and deep experience supporting some of the world's most critical missions."
He added, "We look forward to completing the transaction and entering this exciting next chapter with Rocket Lab."
Calling on a competitive advantage
Iridium isn't the only satellite telephony company on the scene, but it remains a unique one. With its constellation of low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites operating in cross-polar orbits, it has 100% coverage over our entire planet. That sets it well apart from rival LEO broadcasters that must beam to both the user and the ground base station simultaneously to complete a connection.
The most prominent of those peers is Starlink, founded by Elon Musk and recently folded into the space/tech/telecom conglomerate he leads, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX)(SpaceX). That connectivity issue had strictly limited Starlink; however, lately, it's been upgrading its technology to start removing that roadblock. Starlink also has an advantage over Iridium in that it delivers a high-speed, low-latency signal ideal for web browsing, video streaming, etc.; Iridium is basically suitable only for low-bandwidth use, such as phone calls.
The rise of a rival
I emphasize the Iridium/Starlink rivalry because, assuming all goes smoothly and Rocket Lab absorbs the former, the merged company will be regularly compared to SpaceX.
Is that reasonable, though? Not necessarily. Rocket Lab's absorption of Iridium will add a major asset, to be sure. Still, the vertical integration of the combined businesses -- Rocket Lab's launch operations and spacecraft manufacturing, plus Iridium's well-established communications infrastructure -- is tight and complementary.
By contrast, SpaceX feels something like an everything-but-the-kitchen-sink collection of assets. There's the space business, sure, and Starlink, but also X (formerly Twitter), plus an artificial intelligence (AI) developer, and a data center builder and operator. I feel there's notably less cohesion and potential synergy in SpaceX's lineup.
Meanwhile, Iridium should pay for itself before long. In contrast to some of SpaceX's operations, it's a habitually profitable and cash-generating company, with nearly $300 million in free cash flow last year.
Rocket Lab says it's secured commitments for the non-stock portion of the deal, meanwhile, so with Thursday's successful Iridium shareholder vote, the acquisition appears to be a lock. Rocket Lab investors should be very pleased that this important deal is gaining serious altitude.
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Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.

Major Milestone Passed In Iridium/Rocket Lab Tie Up

Key Points
The launch of its Neutron rocket was originally expected in 2025 but may slip again until 2027.
The stock has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high of $151, set back in late May.
It's no secret that Wall Street analysts are very bullish on Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). The majority rate the stock a buy with an average price target of about $109 per share. This is substantially higher than where the stock is trading as of this writing, at about $64.
Rocket Lab also just posted record revenue numbers in its latest quarterly earnings. Revenue increased 62% year over year, the space company's backlog ballooned to more than $2.3 billion, and momentum is strongly on Rocket Lab's side. Still, I'm not quite ready to jump on board.
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Let's start with the bottom line. Rocket Lab isn't close to profitable, and it looks like the prospect of becoming profitable is slipping further into the distance. The company's second-quarter earnings report showed total operating expenses accelerating from the year prior, reaching $142 million in the quarter and $274 million halfway through the year.
Rocket Lab's management expects cash burn to remain elevated for roughly the two years after its Neutron's first successful flight. The Neutron inaugural launch keeps getting pushed back as well. Its original target launch was slated for 2025, but even its latest target of Q4 2026 seems likely to slip again to 2027.
Rocket Lab is also facing significant integration risk at the moment, having completed two acquisitions in 2026 and about to close another deal with Iridium Communications, which will add even more complexity.
Rocket Lab is positioning itself for immense growth in the coming years, particularly in a relatively nascent space. Still, profitability is getting pushed further out while the execution risk grows. I would like to see the company navigate these immediate issues before paying for a stock trading at an immense premium. Shares of Rocket Lab are trading at roughly 50 times its sales as of this writing.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $591,141!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $64,663!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $395,625!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
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Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Wall Street Thinks Rocket Lab Is a Buy. Here's Why I'm Not So Sure.

Key Points
Rocket Lab raised $1.94 billion by selling about 29.3 million new shares at an average price of about $66 each.
The completed stock sale let the company cancel the $3.6 billion bridge loan backing its pending acquisition of Iridium.
Iridium shareholders will also receive Rocket Lab stock when the deal closes, expected in mid-2027.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) said on Sept. 15 that its pending acquisition of satellite operator Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) is fully funded. The space company completed a $1.94 billion at-the-market stock sale (about 29.3 million new shares). And it terminated the $3.6 billion bridge loan it had lined up in late June to backstop the deal.
In other words, Rocket Lab decided to pay for the cash portion of the acquisition by selling pieces of itself instead of borrowing billions. I think that was the right choice for a business that isn't yet profitable. But the choice has a cost, and it can be counted in shares.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
How much dilution?
Rocket Lab reported about 598 million common shares outstanding as of Aug. 5 in its latest quarterly filing. Selling about 29.3 million new shares against that base works out to dilution of about 5%. (Count the preferred shares that convert one-for-one into common -- about 41 million -- and it's closer to 4.5%.)
The sale price matters, too. The shares went out at an average of about $66 each -- a bit below the roughly $69 the stock fetches as of this writing, and less than half the $151 peak reached within the past year.
As for the money, the deal values Iridium at about $8 billion including debt, and shareholders are set to receive $27 per share in cash when it closes. With about 106 million Iridium shares outstanding, the cash portion comes to about $2.9 billion.
The stock sale covers about two-thirds of that. Cash and short-term investments (about $2.3 billion at the end of June) can cover the rest, plus fees and some Iridium debt Rocket Lab plans to repay.
Skipping the loan was the safer move
The alternative was borrowing. When the acquisition was announced in late June, Rocket Lab lined up a $3.6 billion bridge loan from Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo.
The senior secured loan had a 364-day term. Its job was to guarantee the money would be there at closing.
Rocket Lab is still a money-losing company, though. Its second-quarter net loss was $49.3 million, narrower than the $66.4 million loss it posted a year earlier but a loss all the same. A $3.6 billion loan due within a year of closing would have needed to be refinanced fast, at whatever rates lenders offered, by a business that doesn't yet generate profits.
Sure, Iridium's own business could have helped service that debt. The satellite operator produced about $872 million of revenue in 2025 and about $495 million of operational earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (OEBITDA), a 57% margin. But Iridium brings debt of its own: Its $1.8 billion term loan will stay in place after the deal closes, with lenders signing off on the ownership change and Rocket Lab guaranteeing the debt. Using the $3.6 billion bridge to refinance that loan and help cover the cash would have left the combined company deep in debt in a capital-hungry industry.
I'd argue trading about 5% of the company to avoid that outcome is the better deal.
After all, the business keeps setting records. First-quarter revenue was about $200 million. The second quarter stepped up to a record $234 million, up an impressive 62% year over year. Management's third-quarter guidance of $250 million to $265 million calls for yet another high.
Momentum like that helps explain how Rocket Lab could sell $1.9 billion of stock in about a month.
The share count isn't done growing
The stock sale only covers the cash half of the deal. Iridium shareholders will also receive Rocket Lab stock at closing -- between 0.24 and 0.40 shares for each Iridium share they own, depending on the stock's price at the time. Across Iridium's share count, that works out to between 25 million and 42 million additional shares.
Add it all up, and the deal could ultimately add about 72 million shares, growing the count as much as 12% from its Aug. 5 level.
And the closing is still a ways off. Iridium shareholders are scheduled to vote on the deal on Sept. 24, but the companies don't expect the merger to be completed until mid-2027, pending regulatory clearances.
Ultimately, I think Rocket Lab handled the financing well. Selling stock at about $66 beats owing $3.6 billion that would have come due within a year of closing. After all, for a company still posting losses, a stronger balance sheet is arguably worth the dilution.
That said, a stronger balance sheet doesn't make the stock cheap. At about $69 per share, Rocket Lab carries a market value above $40 billion -- more than 40 times its annualized revenue.
Sure, the financing looks smart. But my view of the growth stock hasn't changed. I would avoid buying shares at this price.
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Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $64,119!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $387,158!*
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Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rocket Lab Sold $1.9 Billion of New Stock to Pay for Iridium. Here's the Dilution Math.

Key Points
SpaceX has an ambitious plan to grow into space applications and AI infrastructure in orbit.
Rocket Lab is working to catch up to SpaceX's capabilities.
One stock is likely the better bet based on valuation.
The future of the space economy will play out in public markets. Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public with a bang back in June and is now valued as one of the world's top stocks by market cap. Investors are highly optimistic about the future of the space economy and what it could mean for satellite internet, artificial intelligence (AI), and other space applications in the 21st century.
But there is another stock competing with SpaceX that has already delivered over 500% gains for shareholders since going public five years ago: Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). Which stock will be the better buy for your portfolio over the next decade?
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
SpaceX's market share and AI ambitions
Many readers know about SpaceX and its founder, Elon Musk. Musk has set SpaceX on an ambitious plan to win in the space economy with multiple technologies.
First, of course, it launches payloads into orbit. Today it uses the workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, but in the future, it hopes to use the much larger Starship, which is currently under testing. This segment generates less than $1 billion in quarterly revenue but is the engine that keeps everything else moving.
Second, SpaceX is using its own launch program to send thousands of satellites into orbit to create a global high-speed internet service called Starlink. This division is doing wonderfully at the moment, with revenue up to $4.3 billion last quarter and $1.66 billion in income from operations. Revenue growth was 66% compared to the same quater last year. With a huge telecommunications market, SpaceX believes there is an addressable market of over $100 billion for satellite internet services globally. With strong margins, this could be a nice growth driver for SpaceX in the years ahead.
Lastly, SpaceX's long-term ambition is to build an AI data center business on earth and in orbit. It will require significant upfront investment and innovation to make data center technology in orbit possible, but Musk believes this can deliver rapid revenue growth for the SpaceX AI segment, helping the business reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. It generated only $21 billion in total revenue over the last 12 months, making this $1 trillion goal unlikely to be achieved.
Rocket Lab's rapid growth
Rocket Lab is in an earlier stage than SpaceX in space applications, but it has begun nipping at SpaceX's heels.
It is in the process of acquiring Iridium Communications for approximately $8 billion. Iridium has an existing satellite internet business that will help Rocket Lab springboard its own ambitions for space applications, competing more directly with SpaceX.
Importantly, Rocket Lab has an innovative new rocket under testing called the Neutron, which should be able to compete more directly with the Falcon 9 for large-payload missions, including Rocket Lab's own space service projects.
These two developments -- as long as they are executed correctly -- should lead to sustained revenue growth for Rocket Lab, which has already seen overall sales hit $769 million over the last 12 months, up 1,400% in the last five years. Similar growth over the next five years would bring Rocket Lab's revenue to over $10 billion.
Which stock is a better buy?
When it comes to analyzing which stock is a better buy, the differentiator may come down to valuation and size.
SpaceX trades at a market cap of $2 trillion and a trailing price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 91. This is placing massive growth expectations on the business if the share price is to deliver gains for shareholders in the years ahead. Conversely, Rocket Lab trades at a small market cap of $38 billion and a P/S ratio of 48, even though it is much smaller than SpaceX.
Unless you are uber-bullish on SpaceX, Rocket Lab stock might be a better bet right now if you are clamoring for some exposure to space economy stocks.
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Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

SpaceX or Rocket Lab: Which Space Stock Is the Better Buy for the Next Decade?

Key Points
Rocket Lab's second-quarter revenue grew 62% year over year to a record $234 million.
About 45% of the company's record $2.36 billion backlog is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months.
The pending $8 billion Iridium acquisition isn't expected to close until mid-2027, and this forecast excludes it completely.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) keeps breaking its own records. The space company's revenue rose 62% year over year to a record $234 million in the second quarter of 2026. Its backlog grew to a record $2.36 billion, up 137%.
And management's guidance for third-quarter revenue of $250 million to $265 million calls for yet another record.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
There's a complication ahead, though. In June, Rocket Lab agreed to buy satellite operator Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) in an $8 billion deal expected to close in mid-2027.
Iridium produced about $872 million of revenue in 2025. So when the deal closes, Rocket Lab's reported totals will fold in a large business it bought.
That's why my prediction draws a hard line. I think Rocket Lab's own operations (not counting a dollar from Iridium) top $1.5 billion of revenue in 2027.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What does $1.5 billion take?
This year's total isn't complete yet. Rocket Lab reported a little over $200 million of revenue in the first quarter and $234 million in the second, for about $434 million through June.
The midpoint of third-quarter guidance would bring the company to about $692 million with a quarter left. A fourth quarter around $280 million (my estimate, in line with this year's sequential gains) would put 2026 at about $970 million, up about 61% from the $602 million Rocket Lab reported in 2025. That 2025 total was itself up 38%.
From there, my prediction asks for less than it might seem. Hitting $1.5 billion in 2027 from about $970 million takes growth of about 55%. Put another way, it asks Rocket Lab to slow down.
After all, revenue rose about 63% year over year in the first quarter and 62% in the second. Those rates benefited from acquisitions that now sit in the base, so next year's growth must come largely from the business as it stands. Even if fourth-quarter revenue only equals the third quarter's guided midpoint, putting 2026 near $950 million, the requirement is about 58% -- still below today's pace.
Nearly half the backlog is expected to convert within a year
A surprising amount of next year's revenue is already under contract. In its second-quarter filing, the company reported about 45% of its $2.36 billion backlog (around $1.1 billion) is expected to be recognized as revenue within 12 months. Some of that arrives in late 2026. But the window extends through mid-2027, and the other 55% sits behind it.
The backlog is still growing, too. It was $2.2 billion at the end of March and $2.36 billion at the end of June -- and that increase came even as Rocket Lab recognized $234 million of revenue during that period. Behind those totals sits the largest single contract the company has ever announced: an $816 million Space Development Agency award for 18 satellites.
Granted, acquisitions added backlog too, and a backlog isn't a schedule. Contracts can shift, and programs can slip.
Still, the mix is encouraging. Space systems, the segment that builds satellites and components, accounts for about $1.4 billion of the backlog and generated $189.5 million of second-quarter revenue, up 94% year over year (a rate helped by recent acquisitions).
Neutron is upside, not a requirement
Notably, I haven't counted Neutron, the bigger rocket Rocket Lab is building to compete with SpaceX, anywhere in this forecast. The company targets delivering it to the launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a launch date hasn't been announced.
The forecast is built that way on purpose. If Neutron debuts in 2027 and starts working through the launch contracts waiting on it, that revenue arrives on top of my numbers. If the rocket slips, the forecast doesn't change much, because the revenue it counts comes from satellite work and Electron, the company's smaller rocket that is already flying.
Will Rocket Lab top $1.5 billion in 2027 without Iridium? I think so.
The growth needed is slower than what the company is already delivering, and nearly half of a record backlog is expected to convert. What could change my mind is a stall in space systems deliveries or a stretch where bookings stop outrunning revenue. Neither has shown up yet.
The prediction ends at the revenue line, though. Rocket Lab still expects an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss of $17 million to $23 million in the third quarter, larger than the second quarter's $8.8 million loss.
The valuation is the other concern. At roughly $63 per share as of this writing, shares already price in years of growth like this.
So even with that revenue on the way, this growth stock isn't one I'd buy today.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: Rocket Lab's Revenue Tops $1.5 Billion in 2027 Without Counting Iridium

Key Points
Rocket Lab announced that it had completed an equity offering to help fund its acquisition of Iridium.
The $1.94 billion capital raise, together with its existing cash balance, is sufficient to complete the deal.
Rocket Lab has big plans after the combination, which is expected to close in mid-2027.
People have been entranced by the emergence of the space economy. The potential to get in on the ground floor and reach the stars is intriguing and has captured the imagination of investors. One of the key participants in this emerging field is Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB), the self-described end-to-end space company, "delivering reliable launch services, complete spacecraft design and manufacturing, satellite components, flight software, and more."
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In June, the company announced the proposed acquisition of Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM), which would combine Rocket Lab's launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium's global satellite network and communications spectrum. This combination would accelerate the company's emergence as a tier-1 space power virtually overnight.
Now, the company has reached an important milestone ahead of the acquisition.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Show me the money
On Tuesday, Rocket Lab announced it had completed a $1.94 billion at-the-market equity offering by issuing 29.3 million shares of stock. The funds raised, when added to the company's existing cash pile, represent the total cash needed to fund the Iridium acquisition and pay off some of the company's existing debt. Management noted that, pending regulatory approvals, the deal is expected to close in mid-2027.
In another important development, Rocket Lab completed the required amendments to its existing $1.77 billion credit facility, securing the company's long-term financing, backed by its strong free cash flow. These changes were needed ahead of the organizational change.
In light of the cash raised in the equity offering and the changes to the existing credit facility, Rocket Lab has canceled the $3.6 billion bridge loan that was originally obtained to secure the deal.
These steps were important benchmarks that needed to be completed before the acquisition.
Big plans
At World Space Business Week earlier this week, Rocket Lab signaled big plans ahead of the acquisition. CFO Adam Spice said that acquiring Iridium will provide the final piece of the puzzle, transitioning Rocket Lab from a rocket company and satellite builder to a fully integrated space operator.
Spice noted that Rocket Lab is primarily known as a launch provider, having flown nearly 100 missions and expanding its launch business by developing Neutron, its reusable medium-lift launch vehicle. The company then built its satellite business, marking the next stage of its evolution. The acquisition of Iridium provides the "application piece," making the deal "incredibly transformational" and fulfilling Rocket Lab's ambition to be an end-to-end space company.
The CFO noted that the company can deploy additional capital to accelerate the growth of Iridium's more mature business. He went on to say the acquisition was the "first step" of "many steps" in the broader space market -- particularly in the applications and constellation business -- suggesting the company may be contemplating future acquisitions.
This all comes ahead of Iridium's special stockholder meeting scheduled for Sept. 24, when shareholders will vote on the proposed acquisition. The boards of directors of both Rocket Lab and Iridium have already unanimously approved the combination.
Rocket Lab isn't yet profitable, as the company is investing heavily in the development of its Neutron rocket. That said, Spice said during the company's Q2earnings callthat he expects that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will turn positive in the quarter after a successful test launch of Neutron, turning cash flow positive within 18 months to two years thereafter.
To sum it up, there's a lot to like about Rocket Lab, but it should be viewed as a high-risk, high-reward proposition and a smaller part of a balanced portfolio.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $548,453!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $63,537!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $433,160!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 15, 2026.
Danny Vena, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rocket Lab Raises Funds To Prepare For Closing Of Iridium Acquisition

Key Points
Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket may not launch until 2027.
Also happening in 2027 is something even more important: Rocket Lab will acquire Iridium Communications.
With Iridium in-house, Rocket Lab will become profitable and free cash flow-positive.
Uh-oh. Here we go again!
It's been nearly five years since Sir Peter Beck, the founder and CEO of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), announced plans to build a Neutron rocketship in 2020. The 43-meter-tall craft, incorporating an expendable second stage within a reusable first stage, can carry 13 tons of cargo to Low Earth Orbit -- 43 times the payload of Rocket Lab's current Electron rocket.
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Assuming, that is to say, it ever launches.
Rocket Lab, you see, has been promising to launch Neutron for years -- first positing a 2024 launch date, then "mid-2025," followed by late 2025, Q1 2026, and most recently late 2026. Last month, the deadline slipped yet again when Beck told investors on a conference call he was targeting "delivery of Neutron to the pad in Q4 2026."
That sounds like a reiteration of the late 2026 goal. Unfortunately, delivering the rocket to the pad is just the first step. Next follows a series of pre-launch tests preceding the actual launch.
And as a result, it's entirely possible we won't see Neutron take off before 2027.
"An-ti-ci-pa-tion, anticipa-yay-shun! [Rocket Lab's] making us wait"
As you can imagine, investors in Rocket Lab stock are getting just a wee bit impatient with all the delays. And Rocket Lab stock is down 24% in the past two weeks, or nearly $20 per share.
The distress is understandable. (Still, one imagines they'd be even more upset if Rocket Lab moved too fast and launched a rocket that blew up!) Bearing that in mind, here's another date that Rocket Lab investors might want to focus on instead, just in case Rocket Lab has to delay launch yet again:
June 30, 2027.
What happens on June 30, 2027?
Three months ago, Rocket Lab announced it would acquire iconic satellite communications company Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM) in an $8 billion deal slated to close in "mid-2027."
Granted, that deadline's a bit fuzzy. But June 30, 2027, is about as close to mid-2027 as one can get, so that's the date I'm hoping we will see Iridium officially become part of Rocket Lab. And why is this important?
Why Iridium is important to Rocket Lab
Neutron is great and all, don't get me wrong. I'm personally looking forward to seeing it fly -- maybe even in person!
But as an investor, I realize that even the $50 million in revenue Neutron will bring to Rocket Lab with each flight, with 44% gross margins, pales in significance to the $884 million in annual revenue -- with 72% gross profit margins, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence -- that Rocket Lab will receive once it acquires Iridium.
Analysts forecast that in 2027, Iridium will earn more than $135 million in GAAP profit and generate more than $313 million in positive free cash flow. That's enough profit and cash to offset all the losses and cash burn at Rocket Lab, and turn Rocket Lab instantly profitable and free cash flow-positive -- a full year before Wall Street analysts anticipated that would happen.
To me, this makes June 30, 2027, the date to watch. Assuming Rocket Lab can close the deal on time, it'll be a much more attractive investment on that date -- with Neutron or without it.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $598,219!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $61,037!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $421,997!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rocket Lab's Neutron Just Slipped Again. Here's the Only Date That Still Matters for Shareholders.

Key Points
Rocket Lab stock gained 560% over the last five years.
The company is expected to earn its first profit in 2028 and then grow rapidly from there.
Additional profit will come from the acquisition of Iridium, and earnings might reach $1.3 billion in 2031.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), the once-tiny space stock that wants to be Space Exploration Technologies when it grows up, held its IPO (albeit as a special purpose acquisition company) just over five years ago. If you'd put $10,000 into Rocket Lab back then, you'd be sitting on more than $65,000 today -- a total return of more than 560%.
And good for you if you did that! Newer investors, though, may be more interested in knowing what $10,000 invested in Rocket Lab stock now will be worth in another five years.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
And that's what I'm going to try to figure out today.
The trouble with forecasts
Allow me to begin with a disclaimer: No one knows for certain what will happen to Rocket Lab over the next five years. It could explode (in a good way), delivering another 560% return. Or it could explode in a very bad way, for example, if one or more Rocket Lab rockets literally blow up on launch, shaking investor confidence in the space company.
The truth is, anything can happen in half a decade. Bear that in mind as you continue reading.
What analysts say
An inability to know the future has never discouraged Wall Street's best and brightest analysts from trying to predict it. In the case of Rocket Lab, analyst forecasts see Rocket Lab turning profitable for the first time in 2028 and steadily increasing its earnings power to as much as $1.1 billion by 2031.
Rocket Lab might become even more profitable on a cash basis that year, generating positive free cash flow of $1.5 billion -- and that's just to start with.
In June, Rocket Lab announced it would acquire iconic satellite communications company Iridium Communications in an $8 billion deal slated to close in mid-2027. Iridium is already profitable and free cash flow positive. Although a slower grower than Rocket Lab, the company is expected to grow its profits by 13% annually over the next five years.
By 2031, this might result in $190 million in profit and more than $570 million in free cash flow.
How much will Rocket Lab be worth in five years?
If the merger happens as planned next year and both companies (now independent) continue to grow as analysts anticipate, by 2031, a combined Rocket Lab-plus-Iridium might conceivably earn $1.3 billion and generate more than $2 billion in free cash flow annually.
How much would this be worth to investors?
That depends largely on the multiple-to-earnings that investors would be willing to pay for a slower-growing Rocket Lab five years from now. Would they pay, for example, the 54x trailing earnings valuation that Iridium alone fetches today?
With analysts forecasting Rocket Lab's earnings to grow by an average of 60% from 2030 to 2035, that seems reasonable to me -- maybe even conservative. And if I'm right, a valuation of $70 billion (or 75% more than Rocket Lab's current $40 billion market capitalization) seems reasonable.
This is only a guess, of course, albeit as educated a guess as I can make. But if I'm right, a $10,000 investment in Rocket Lab could be worth $17,500 in five years.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $598,219!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $61,037!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $421,997!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 5, 2026.
Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: Here's What a $10,000 Investment in Rocket Lab Will Be Worth in 5 Years

Key Points
Rocket Lab first announced it would build a Neutron rocket in 2020.
Six years later, investors are still waiting to see it launch.
Neutron is expected to launch only once in its first year of operation.
In the summer of 2025, I took a little road trip -- all the way out to the Virginia coast. There I witnessed firsthand the grand opening of Rocket Lab's (NASDAQ: RKLB) newest and grandest piece of infrastructure, a towering launch pad from which the first Neutron rocket would (I was assured) make its inaugural voyage in just a few short months.
It's been a year since I made that trip. Neutron still hasn't launched.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
What is Neutron?
Sir Peter Beck, the founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, first announced he would build the Neutron medium-lift vehicle in 2020, envisioning it as a 40-meter-tall, "8-ton class reusable rocket" powered by seven Archimedes engines in its reusable first stage and a single vacuum-optimized Archimedes in its second stage (carried internally by the first stage).
Neutron has since evolved into a 43-meter rocket powered by nine engines in the first stage, capable of lifting a payload of 13 tons (if the rocket is reusable; 15 tons if it is expended). And in a big reveal at the grand opening, Rocket Lab dropped a hint that the new and improved Neutron might even be capable of carrying astronauts to space.
How big a deal is Neutron?
Thirteen tons of reusable payload carried within a five-meter payload fairing makes Neutron ideal for launching entire constellations of small satellites into orbit -- aligning perfectly with Rocket Lab's plan to buy Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM), which deploys and operates such constellations. This purchase will transform Rocket Lab into a wholly vertically integrated space company that can build and launch and that can deliver satellite services on its own.
Combined with the potential to launch humans as well as satellites into orbit, it opens new markets for Rocket Lab -- crew transfer to the International Space Station or private space stations, for example; missions to the Moon; even space tourism, potentially.
All of this is in addition to simply using Neutron as a commercial launcher for other companies' payloads. At an estimated $50 million launch price and a target cadence of seven launches per year, Neutron could add $350 million a year to Rocket Lab's revenue stream.
Delayed!
At this point, a lot of investors are worried because Neutron hasn't launched yet -- indeed, it doesn't have a firm target date for launch anymore. While there's still hope the rocket might take off before the end of 2027, many pundits speculate that Neutron's inaugural launch may slip into 2027.
How bad would this be for Rocket Lab?
Although it clearly hasn't been great news for Rocket Lab stock lately, in the long term, it won't affect Rocket Lab's business all that much. As Peter Beck has explained, the company plans to launch Neutron only once in its first year of operation (then three times in its second year and five times in its third). At $50 million per launch, therefore, even a full year's delay would subtract only about $50 million from Rocket Lab's forecast revenue.
That's not enough to move the needle or prevent Rocket Lab from becoming profitable in 2027 by virtue of the Iridium merger. Admittedly, if that should fall through as well, there would be more cause for near-term concern. But in and of itself, a few months' delay in Neutron's first launch shouldn't affect Rocket Lab's business much at all.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $593,259!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $62,608!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $445,833!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 4, 2026.
Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.