Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and digital decisioning technologies and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates in two segments, Scores and Software. The Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. It offers FICO Customer Analytics, FICO Responsible AI, FICO Advisors, FICO Business Outcome Simulator, FICO Forecaster, FICO TRIAD Customer Manager, FICO Blaze Advisor, FICO Xpress Optimization, FICO Falcon Fraud Manager, FICO Analytics Workbench, FICO Data Orchestrator, FICO DMP Streaming, FICO Decision Optimizer, and FICO Strategy Director, as well as software implementation and configuration services. The company markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

Fair Isaac’s strong operating profitability is combined with a noticeably strained balance sheet and elevated valuation across several multiples. Gross margin of 85.1%, operating margin of 51.6%, and net margin of 34.0% look very strong and are significantly above the industry median, while ROA of 41.7% and ROI of 70.5% confirm the business’s high efficiency. At the same time, revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, and net income have generally remained at high levels in recent periods and show no signs of deterioration, which supports earnings quality. EPS also remains strong, and forward EPS is slightly below the current TTM figure, suggesting stabilization rather than accelerating growth. However, leverage has increased noticeably: long-term debt has reached $5.28 billion, and total liabilities stand at $6.14 billion, which, against the backdrop of negative shareholders’ equity, creates elevated financial risk. Current liquidity looks acceptable, but the current ratio of 1.18 is already below the industry median, and the quick ratio is effectively zero, limiting the margin of safety. Negative shareholders’ equity and zero values for ROE/ROTE indicate a structural weakness in the balance sheet, even if the operating model remains highly profitable. The valuation picture is mixed: P/E is around the industry median, but P/S is more than twice the median, and P/FCF is also above average, leaving little room for upward re-rating. P/B is formally distorted by negative equity, so it cannot be interpreted as a clear sign of cheapness. Dividend yield is almost absent and does not add investment appeal through cash return. Overall, the fundamentals support the quality of the business but do not remove concerns about the balance sheet and valuation, so a moderately negative adjustment to the outlook is warranted. For an investor, this is a story of a very strong operating machine with an expensive valuation and elevated financial risk, rather than an obviously undervalued asset.

Fair Isaac Corporation

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Оптимистичный взгляд на свои позиции резко сменился на неуверенность.

Strong index, significantly down. An optimistic view of his position suddenly changed to uncertainty.

Сильный индекс, незначительно упал. Рынок не поддерживает быков.

Strong index, slightly down. The market does not support the bulls.

Сильный индекс, без изменений. Отток средств из лонгов на высоком уровне.

Strong index, flat. Outflow of funds from longs at a high level.

FICO demonstrates outstanding margin and return on assets, but its high valuation, rising debt, and negative equity limit re-rating potential.

The average one-year price target for Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) (BMV:FICO1) has been revised to $1,104.66 / share. This is a decrease of 15.79% from the prior estimate of $1,311.72 dated September 29, 2026. These figures represent aggregate analyst targets compiled by Fintel and do not constitute a recommendation or investment advice.
The price target is an average of many targets provided by analysts. The latest targets range from a low of $494.90 to a high of $1,837.50 / share. The average price target represents an increase of 34.18% from the latest reported closing price of $823.27 / share, recorded on October 22, 2026. The target range has widened, with the current target range width at $1,342.60 compared to the prior width of $1,134.54, representing a target range width change percent of +18.34%.
Looking at the historical trajectory, the mean target has decreased consecutively 2 times. On October 23, 2026, the mean target was $1,104.66, down from $1,311.72 on October 2, 2026, $1,498.59 on September 15, 2026, and $1,497.41 on August 28, 2026. This latest mean target of $1,104.66 on October 23, 2026, represents the observed twelve-month low mean, down from the observed twelve-month high mean of $2,064.81 recorded on December 21, 2025. Additionally, the target has changed by -29.95% since the 90-day baseline date of July 1, 2026.
In terms of price performance, Fair Isaac's stock price changed by +6.93% over one week, relative to a baseline close of $769.93 on October 15, 2026. Over a one-month period, the price changed by -9.97% from a baseline close of $914.48 on September 22, 2026. For its latest earnings reported on July 29, 2026, the company posted an actual EPS of 12.18, which was a +1.75% surprise against the estimate of 11.97. Actual revenue was $674,188,000.00, representing a -2.64% surprise against the estimate of $692,448,134.00. The company's upcoming earnings for the fourth quarter of 2026 are scheduled for November 11, 2026, during the after market close session.
Recent analyst actions include Mizuho maintaining an Outperform rating on October 19, 2026, RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating on October 16, 2026, and both Raymond James and Needham maintaining Outperform and Buy ratings, respectively, on October 13, 2026. As of October 1, 2026, the recommendation breakdown consisted of 4 strong buy, 15 buy, 8 hold, and 2 sell recommendations, compared to 5 strong buy, 16 buy, 7 hold, and 1 sell recommendations as of September 1, 2026.
To provide broader industry context, several of Fair Isaac's competitors also saw revisions to their analyst targets. TransUnion and Equifax both experienced downward revisions to their mean targets, while NICE remained unchanged.
Company
Target revision
Implied change
TransUnion
-1.28%
+18.18%
Equifax
-1.31%
+15.17%
NICE
0.00%
—
Fintel is one of the most comprehensive investing research platforms available to individual investors, traders, financial advisors, and small hedge funds.
Our data covers the world, and includes fundamentals, analyst reports, ownership data and fund sentiment, options sentiment, insider trading, options flow, unusual options trades, and much more. Additionally, our exclusive stock picks are powered by advanced, backtested quantitative models for improved profits.
This story originally appeared on Fintel.

Fair Isaac Consensus Price Target Decreased by 15.79% to $1,104.66

The average one-year price target for Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) (BIT:1FICO) has been revised to $1,311.72 / share. This is a decrease of 12.47% from the prior estimate of $1,498.59 dated September 11, 2026. These figures represent aggregate analyst targets compiled from various sources and do not constitute a recommendation by Fintel.
The price target is an average of many targets provided by analysts. The latest targets range from a low of $702.96 to a high of $1,837.50 / share. The average price target represents an increase of 98.22% from the latest reported closing price of $661.75 / share, recorded on October 1, 2026.
Looking at the historical trend, the mean target has declined over recent months. On August 5, 2026, the mean target was $1,524.01, which adjusted to $1,497.41 on August 28, 2026, and $1,498.59 on September 15, 2026, before reaching $1,311.72 on October 2, 2026. This latest mean target of $1,311.72 represents the observed twelve-month low mean, compared to the observed twelve-month high mean of $2,064.81 recorded on December 21, 2025. The target has changed by -16.82% since the 90-day baseline date of July 1, 2026.
In terms of stock performance, Fair Isaac experienced a price change of -22.74% over one week, relative to a baseline close of $856.48 on September 24, 2026. Over a one-month period, the price changed by -40.04% from a baseline close of $1,103.68 on September 1, 2026. For its latest earnings report on July 29, 2026, the company reported actual earnings per share (EPS) of 12.18, which was above the estimated 11.97, representing a positive surprise of +1.75%. Actual revenue was $674,188,000.00, falling short of the estimated $692,448,134.00 by a surprise of -2.64%.
Fair Isaac operates in the Industrials sector under the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry. Within this sub-industry, 33 companies are covered, with 13 experiencing target increases, 5 experiencing decreases, and 15 remaining unchanged. The sub-industry median revision percent is 0.00%, with a median implied change percent of +42.89%. Analyst recommendations as of September 1, 2026, show a total of 29 recommendations, with 72.4% positive, 24.1% hold, and 3.4% negative. Recent analyst actions include Baird maintaining an Outperform rating on October 2, 2026, while Wells Fargo, Barclays, and BMO Capital all maintained their respective Overweight and Outperform ratings on September 30, 2026.
Among its primary competitors, both TransUnion and Equifax saw minor downward revisions to their mean targets, while NICE remained unchanged.
Peer Comparison
Company name
Target revision
Implied change
TransUnion
-1.28%
+58.63%
Equifax
-1.31%
+54.25%
NICE
0.00%
—
Separately, unusual listed-options activity was observed on October 1, 2026. The total options volume reached 10,564, which is 3.51x the average volume of 3,010. The put/call volume ratio was recorded at 0.64.
Fintel is one of the most comprehensive investing research platforms available to individual investors, traders, financial advisors, and small hedge funds.
Our data covers the world, and includes fundamentals, analyst reports, ownership data and fund sentiment, options sentiment, insider trading, options flow, unusual options trades, and much more. Additionally, our exclusive stock picks are powered by advanced, backtested quantitative models for improved profits.
This story originally appeared on Fintel.

Fair Isaac Consensus Price Target Decreased by 12.47% to $1,311.72

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down by -0.25% on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.86%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.23%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) fell -0.25%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) rose +0.24%.
Stock indexes settled mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial falling to a 3.5-month low. Stocks erased early gains as the broader market turned lower, as rising crude oil prices boosted inflation expectations and pushed bond yields higher. WTI crude rose more than +1% on Wednesday, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 19-year high of 5.30%.
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Stocks initially rose on Wednesday as inflation concerns eased after the Q2 core PCE price index was revised lower and the Aug core PCE price index rose less than expected. The better-than-expected inflation news reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike next month to 37% from 52% on Tuesday. Also, signs of growth in the US economy supported stocks after Q2 GDP was revised higher, the Sep ADP employment change rose more than expected, and Aug personal spending rose the most in 5 months. Stocks added to their gains after the Sep MNI Chicago PMI expanded at the strongest pace in 4 months.
Stocks are awaiting Micron Technology's earnings after Wednesday’s close to gauge demand for AI spending.
US MBA mortgage applications fell -6.0% in the week ended September 25, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -4.3% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -8.7%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +18 bp to a 2.75-year high of 7.30% from 7.12% the prior week.
The US Sep ADP employment change rose by +90,000, stronger than expectations of +75,000.
US Aug personal spending rose by +0.9% m/m, right on expectations and the largest increase in five months. Aug personal income rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.
The US Aug core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
US Q2 GDP was revised upward to +2.2% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at +1.5%, as Q2 personal consumption was revised upward to +3.8% from the previously reported +3.4%. The Q2 core PCE price index was revised downward to +3.3% from the previously reported +3.6%.
The US Sep MNI Chicago PMI rose +11.7 to 58.8, stronger than expectations of 51.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in four months.
Positive economic news from China supported global growth prospects and boosted stocks. The China Sep manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 to 50.1, right on expectations. The China Sep non-manufacturing PMI rose +1.2 to 50.2, stronger than expectations of 49.2.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) rose more than +1% on Wednesday after Russia announced that it was extending a ban on most diesel exports through October, further tightening theglobal market Russia began its diesel export ban in July after Ukrainian drone and missile attacks damaged Russian refineries. Gains in crude are limited after JPMorgan Chase said Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 17.5 million bpd, or about 98% of pre-war levels, although flows of gasoline, diesel and distillates were at 3 million bpd, or 58% of pre-war levels.
Markets are discounting a 37% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.81%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.31%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.94%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed down -7 ticks on Wednesday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +5.7 bp to 5.293%. Dec T-notes tumbled to a 19-year nearest-futures low on Wednesday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 19-year high of 5.304%. T-notes gave up an early advance on Wednesday and turned lower on stronger-than-expected US economic news, including Q2 GDP, the Sep ADP employment change, and the Sep MNI Chicago PMI. Also, Wednesday’s +1% increase in WTI crude oil raised inflation expectations and weighed on T-notes. The 10-year break-even inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.375% on Wednesday.
T-notes initially moved higher on Wednesday as inflation concerns eased after the Q2 core PCE price index was revised lower and the Aug core PCE price index rose less than expected. The weaker-than-expected inflation readings reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike next month to 37% from 52%. T-notes also have support from some month- and quarter-end buying by bond fund managers on Wednesday as they extend duration in their portfolios.
European government bond yields were mixed on Wednesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -4.0 bp to 3.586%. The 10-year UK gilt yield matched Monday’s 19-year high of 5.437% on Wednesday and finished up +1.4 bp at 5.424%.
The German Sep unemployment change rose +12,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 500.
German Aug retail sales rose +1.3% m/m, the largest increase in 14 months but slightly weaker than expectations of +1.5% m/m.
German Sep CPI (EU harmonized) rose +0.6% m/m and +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +3.2% y/y, with the +3.3% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 2.75 years.
UK Q2 GDP was revised upward to +0.5% q/q and +1.4% y/y from the previously reported +0.4% q/q and +1.2% y/y.
Markets are discounting a 26% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks were stronger on Wednesday, a positive factor for the broader market. ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +3%, and Adobe Systems (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), and Autodesk (ADSK) closed up more than +2%. Also, Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Datadog (DDOG), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), Microsoft (MSFT), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) closed up more than +1%.
Cybersecurity stocks rose on Wednesday. Gen Digital (GEN) closed up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Okta (OKTA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and SentinelOne (S) closed up more than +2%. Also, Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +1%, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up +0.81%, and Zscaler (ZS) closed up +0.71%.
Fair Isaac (FICO) closed down -4%, adding to Tuesday’s -26% plunge and leading credit reporting agencies lower on negative carryover from Tuesday when FHA director Pulte announced a move that makes it easier for lenders to adopt VantageScore, a move that will increase competition that could pressure credit companies’ market share and pricing power. TransUnion (TRU) also closed down more than -4% and Equifax (EFX) closed down more than -2%.
Moderna (MRNA) closed down more than -5% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $80.
Northrup Grumman (NOC) closed down more than -4% after losing out to Boeing on the $20 billion contract to build the Navy’s next-generation fighter jet.
Walmart (WMT) closed down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Target announced additional price cuts, which may lead to lower profits at Walmart if it is forced to follow suit.
Synopsys (SNPS) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after signing a deal with Amazon.com valued at over $1 billion over multiple years.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) closed up more than +3% after raising its fiscal 2027 networking segment revenue growth outlook.
FactSet Research Systems (FDS) closed up more than +3% after forecasting 2027 adjusted operating margin of 34.8% to 35.3%, above the consensus of 34.4%.
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) closed up more than +2% after the US Navy awarded the company a $5.1 billion contract to complete the USS Harry S. Truman refueling and complex overhaul.
Earnings Reports (10/1/2026)
Accenture PLC (ACN), Acuity Inc (AYI), American Resources Corp (AREC), McCormick & Co Inc/MD (MKC), NIKE Inc (NKE).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Stocks Pressured by Rising Bond Yields

Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in PureCycle Technologies Inc (Symbol: PCT), where a total of 51,710 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 5.2 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 117.7% of PCT's average daily trading volume over the past month of 4.4 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $5 strike call option expiring March 19, 2027, with 10,615 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.1 million underlying shares of PCT. Below is a chart showing PCT's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $5 strike highlighted in orange:
Liberty Energy Inc (Symbol: LBRT) options are showing a volume of 40,907 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 4.1 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 113.9% of LBRT's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 3.6 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $20 strike call option expiring November 20, 2026, with 20,035 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 2.0 million underlying shares of LBRT. Below is a chart showing LBRT's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $20 strike highlighted in orange:
And Fair Isaac Corp (Symbol: FICO) saw options trading volume of 7,116 contracts, representing approximately 711,600 underlying shares or approximately 104.6% of FICO's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 680,620 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $700 strike call option expiring October 16, 2026, with 743 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 74,300 underlying shares of FICO. Below is a chart showing FICO's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $700 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for PCT options, LBRT options, or FICO options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Further PCT Research:

Noteworthy Wednesday Option Activity: PCT, LBRT, FICO

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down by -0.17% on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.21%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) fell -0.15%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) rose +0.21%.
Stock indexes settled mixed on Tuesday. The broader market was under pressure Tuesday as soaring bond yields pushed the 10-year T-note yield to a new 19-year high of 5.29%. Weaker-than-expected US economic news also weighed on stocks after Aug JOLTS job openings fell to a 5-month low, and Sep consumer confidence tumbled to a 12-year low.
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However, stock losses were limited after a -3% plunge in WTI crude oil prices eased inflation risks and knocked bond yields from their highs. Strength in chipmakers on Tuesday also helped the overall market. In addition, dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on Tuesday reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike next month to 52% from 70% when he said the Fed needs only one more rate hike to contain inflation.
The July S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.3% m/m and +2.47% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.20% y/y, with the +2.47% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 14 months.
US Aug JOLTS job openings fell -256,000 to a 5-month low of 7.079 million, weaker than expectations of 7.228 million.
The Conference Board US Sep consumer confidence index fell -6.7 to a 12-year low of 81.9, weaker than expectations of 89.0.
New York Fed President John Williams said, "If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target."
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) dropped more than -3% on Tuesday as signs of larger oil exports from Saudi Arabia are bearish for prices. Tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show Saudi Arabia's crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd in September, the highest in seven months. Saudi Arabia also said it restored about 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity on Monday after repairs restored the link damaged by drone strikes earlier this month.
Markets are discounting a 52% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 2.5-week high and closed up +0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.18%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.60%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed down -2 ticks on Tuesday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.9 bp to 5.255%. Dec T-notes sank to a 19-year nearest-futures low on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 19-year high of 5.291%. Supply pressures weighed on T-notes Tuesday after Paramount Skydance announced it was offering $32 billion of corporate debt in eight tranches, prompting bond dealers to short T-notes to hedge against the incoming supply.
Losses in T-notes were limited on Tuesday amid weaker-than-expected US economic news on Aug JOLTS job openings and Sep consumer confidence. T-notes recovered most of their losses on Tuesday after WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3%, easing inflation expectations. Also, dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams supported T-notes when he said he sees only one more Fed rate hike needed to contain inflation.
European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.7 bp to 3.626%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.2 bp to 5.410%.
The Eurozone Sep economic confidence indicator unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 97.9, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.0.
Spain Sep CPI (EU harmonized) rose +5.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.9% y/y and the largest increase in 3.5 years. Sep core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks moved higher on Tuesday, a supportive factor for the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)climbed to a 2.5-month high and closed up more than +1%. Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +4%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), KLA Corp (KLAC), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +3%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +2%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), Micron Technology (MU), Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed up more than +1%.
Cruise stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday, led by a +13% jump in Carnival (CCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $2.24 from a previous estimate of $2.22. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) closed up more than +7%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed up more than +3%.
Fair Isaac (FICO) closed down more than -26% to lead credit reporting agencies lower and losers in the S&P 500 after FHA director Pulte announced a move that makes it easier for lenders to adopt VantageScore, a move that will increase competition that could pressure credit companies’ market share and pricing power. Also, Equifax (EFX) closed down more than -3%, and TransUnion (TRU) closed down more than -2%.
US steel makers fell on Tuesday after President Trump announced plans for a $15 billion Mesabi Metallics steel plant in Iowa that could produce 10 million tons of steel by 2030. Steel Dynamics (STLD), Nucor Corp (NUE), and Commercial Metals (CMC) closed down more than -3%, and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) closed down more than -1%.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) closed up more than +6% after AstraZeneca said it would make a $2 billion strategic equity investment in the company to jointly develop drugs.
CarMax (KMX) closed up more than +4% after reporting Q2 net sales and operating revenue of $7.88 billion, well above the consensus of $7.05 billion.
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) closed up more than +4% after Oppenheimer & Co initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $24.
Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +3% after Axios reported that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is nearing $70 billion. OpenAI signed a deal with Oracle last year to support the development of five US data centers.
UniQure NV (QURE) closed down more than -37% after saying the benefits of its Huntington’s disease gene therapy drug AMT-130 were not as good after four years as they were after three years in a small trial, a result that could complicate its bid to get the treatment approved by regulators.
Apple (AAPL) closed down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after Bank of America said Apple faces risks as the company’s Siri AI lacks the features that Meta Platform’s Muse AI agent has.
Earnings Reports (9/30/2026)
Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), Jabil Inc (JBL), Micron Technology Inc (MU), Progress Software Corp (PRGS).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Stocks Settle Mixed as Bond Yields Rise

Key Points
Fair Isaac's monopoly has been under assault during the second Trump Administration.
Today the assault reached a fever pitch, with the FHFA evening the usability between FICO and its new competitor, VantageScore.
The nation's largest mortgage lender also announced VantageScore as its new preferred score.
Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) plunged 25.4% on Tuesday as of 1:32 p.m. EDT.
Fair Isaac has long been an investor favorite due to its monopoly on the FICO score, a standard credit score used by virtually all lenders when evaluating borrowers for loans.
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However, it appears the Trump Administration, along with the rest of the housing industry, is aggressively empowering a new FICO competitor. Needless to say, when a company with a monopoly sees that monopoly erode, the stock can undergo a big rerating. So, it's no surprise to see this big move down today.
FICO plunges amid barrage of attacks
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director Bill Pulte has seemingly had it in for Fair Isaac in the second Trump term. In the years leading up to 2025, FICO had aggressively increased the price of FICO scores, roughly doubling them since the end of Trump's first term. Over the past two years, Pulte has been advocating for VantageScore, a new type of credit score co-developed by the three major credit bureaus Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Experian (OTC: EXPGF) (OTC: EXPGY), and TransUnion (NYSE: TRU).
Things have come to a head this month, and especially last night and today. In early September, Pulte posted on X that all securitized products from Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) could use either or both FICO and VantageScores. Pulte also highlighted VantageScore's growing market share, which reached 13% of the credit-scoring market. Pulte also noted that he had asked FICO for "competitive pricing" on its 10T credit-scoring model.
Late yesterday, Pulte again took to X to announce that Fannie and Freddie would be moving to one pricing grid for both FICO and VantageScore credit scores. Before this, lenders would need to charge higher loan rates for VantageScore-based loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That could have kept FICO as the preferred score, despite FICO being much more expensive than VantageScore. However, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now treat loans made with either score equally, essentially erasing that advantage for FICO.
We are Simplifying Mortgage Pricing following feedback from lenders and consumers. Instead of two separate pricing grids, which makes zero sense, Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid. pic.twitter.com/g9h1EqsDca
-- Pulte (@pulte) September 28, 2026
Additionally, TransUnion announced today that it would keep VantageScore 4.0 pricing at $0.99 through December 2028. That means VantageScore will remain much cheaper than FICO for the next two-plus years, at least for credit scores run through TransUnion.
On top of that, Rocket Mortgage, part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), announced that it will now use VantageScore as its preferred credit scoring model -- the first lender to do so. That's a big deal, as Rocket Mortgage is the country's largest mortgage originator by volume.
Is FICO a value, or a value trap?
Not only is FICO's monopoly weakening, but the company has been battered on multiple fronts by the government, the credit bureaus, and the nation's largest mortgage originator. It's no wonder the stock is down so much today, and down roughly 65% from its all-time high.
Fair Isaac actually looks like a value stock here, trading at just 14 times 2026 earnings estimates. That being said, it's very unclear whether FICO will lose material market share or have to significantly cut FICO score pricing. So, the stock is still risky, but worth following in case these worst-case scenarios don't come to pass.
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Why Fair Isaac Corporation Plunged Today

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.03% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.01%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.10%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.05%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.09%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today. Stocks are supported today as lower crude prices have stabilized bond yields. Crude prices are under pressure today on signs that a steady flow of crude oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns and inflation risks. The 10-year T-note yield is little changed today at 5.23% after soaring to a 19-year high of 5.27% on Monday.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Today’s US economic news showed the July S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.3% m/m and +2.47% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.20% y/y, with the +2.47% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 14 months.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down more than -1% today as signs of larger oil exports from Saudi Arabia are bearish for prices. Tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show Saudi Arabia's crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd in September, the highest in seven months. Saudi Arabia also said it restored about 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity on Monday after repairs restored the link damaged by drone strikes earlier this month. Crude losses are limited as hopes remain dim for an imminent breakthrough to end the war in Iran.
Markets are discounting a 70% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 2.5-week high and is up +0.78%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.18%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.60%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up +2 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.7 bp to 5.229%. T-note prices are moving higher today as a -1% decline in WTI crude oil prices is easing inflation expectations. T-notes also have support as some month-end buying occurs, as bond fund managers purchase T-notes ahead of month-end portfolio rebalancing on Wednesday. T-notes fell back from their best level after the July S&P composite-20 home price index rose more than expected.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -4.8 bp to 3.595%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -5.5 bp to 5.367%.
The Eurozone Sep economic confidence indicator unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 97.9, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.0.
Spain Sep CPI (EU harmonized) rose +5.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.9% y/y and the largest increase in 3.5 years. Sep core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Markets are discounting a 27% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +1%. Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +3%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are up more than +2%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.
Cruise stocks are climbing today, led by a +11% jump in Carnival (CCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $2.24 from a previous estimate of $2.22. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is up more than +5%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +4%.
Software stocks are under pressure for a second day today, limiting gains in the overall market. Datadog (DDOG) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) are down more than -3%. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -2%, and ServiceNow (NOW), Autodesk (ADSK), Microsoft (MSFT), and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -1%.
Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -20% to lead credit reporting agencies lower after FHA director Pulte announced a move that makes it easier for lenders to adopt VantageScore, a move that will increase competition that could pressure credit companies’ market share and pricing power. Equifax (EFX) and TransUnion (TRU) are also down more than -4%.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is up more than +9% after AstraZeneca said it would make a $2 billion strategic equity investment in the company to jointly develop drugs.
CarMax (KMX) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 net sales and operating revenue of $7.88 billion, well above the consensus of $7.05 billion.
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) is up more than +7% after Oppenheimer & Co initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $24.
UniQure NV (QURE) is down more than -36% after saying the benefits of its Huntington’s disease gene therapy drug AMT-130 were not as good after four years as they were after three years in a small trial, a result that could complicate its bid to get the treatment approved by regulators.
Earnings Reports (9/29/2026)
AAR Corp (AIR), CarMax Inc (KMX), Carnival Corp Ltd (CCL), Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Stocks Rebound as Crude Prices Fall and Bond Yields Stabilize

In early trading on Tuesday, shares of Carnival topped the list of the day's best performing components of the S&P 500 index, trading up 11.6%. Year to date, Carnival has lost about 19.1% of its value.
And the worst performing S&P 500 component thus far on the day is Fair Isaac, trading down 20.4%. Fair Isaac is lower by about 60.4% looking at the year to date performance.
Two other components making moves today are Equifax, trading down 4.3%, and Honeywell International, trading up 7.5% on the day.

S&P 500 Movers: FICO, CCL

(RTTNews) - Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) are falling about 22 percent in Tuesday morning trading after the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced structural changes to mortgage pricing, which would challenge the company's credit scoring monopoly.
The company's stock is currently trading at $656.69, down 21.97 percent or $184.78, over the previous close of $840.89 on the New York Stock Exchange. It has traded between $656.00 and $1,998.01 in the past one year.
FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced on the social media platform that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will combine their separate pricing matrices into a single, unified system. The new system will include VantageScore, a credit scoring model developed by the three major credit bureaus, alongside the traditional FICO Classic score.

Fair Isaac Stock Drops 22% On FHFA's Structural Changes About Mortgage Pricing

TransUnion TRU is making progress on its strategy of using technology and product innovation to support scalable growth, with the OneTru platform emerging as an important part of that effort. The company completed substantial migrations of U.S. credit customers to OneTru during the first half of 2026, while accelerating new product introductions across its global operations.
OneTru Migration Supports TransUnion’s Growth Strategy
The migration of U.S. credit customers to OneTru represents a key milestone under TransUnion’s 2026 enterprise priorities. Alongside the platform transition, a faster pace of product launches globally indicates that the company is increasingly aligning its technology investments with its growth objectives.
The progress comes against a favorable operating backdrop. U.S. Markets revenues increased 11%, driven by U.S. Financial Services and Emerging Verticals. International organic revenues on a constant-currency basis advanced 6%, supported by high-single-digit growth in India and the U.K. Canada delivered 10% growth.
The combination of customer migrations, product innovation and broad-based revenue expansion provides TransUnion with momentum heading into the second half of 2026.
TransUnion Revenue (TTM)
Higher Guidance Reflects First-Half Momentum
TransUnion raised its 2026 guidance following its first-half performance, although the company continues to factor market uncertainty into its expectations. It now anticipates delivering at least high-single-digit organic constant-currency revenue growth for the third consecutive year, along with double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth.
Continued execution of its enterprise priorities, particularly OneTru adoption and new product introductions, will therefore remain central to TransUnion’s ability to sustain its operating momentum. The company expects its progress to support financial performance, free cash generation and shareholder returns during the second half of the year.
Peer Lens
Equifax EFX and FICO FICO are two U.S.-listed companies operating across overlapping areas of credit information, analytics and financial decision-making. Equifax combines extensive consumer and commercial datasets with analytics and technology to provide information and decisioning solutions, including through its U.S. Information Solutions business. FICO provides analytics software and credit-scoring solutions used to support credit-risk and other business decisions.
Developments at Equifax and FICO, therefore, provide useful context for assessing demand for data-driven financial decisioning solutions. TransUnion’s OneTru migration and product rollout place its technology execution alongside the continuing data and analytics investments of Equifax and FICO.
While TRU and EFX carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, FICO carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
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Indicator	Mar 26	Jun 26	Jul 26	Aug 26	Sep 26	TTM	Median
P/E	33.83	34.52	32.45	33.15	—	33.15	33.34
Price/Sales	11.44	11.81	—	11.34	5.85	5.85	2.86
P/B	106.75K	119.48K	—	0.00	—	0.00	3.01
P/FCF	29.76	28.70	26.97	—	—	26.97	23.04

Indicator	Mar 26	Jun 26	Jul 26	Aug 26	Sep 26	TTM	Median
Net Profit Margin	33.64	34.00	—	—	—	34.00	10.12
Operating Margin	50.35	51.63	—	—	—	51.63	10.80
Gross Margin	84.18	85.09	—	—	—	85.09	50.00
Return on tangible equity	0.00	0.00	—	—	—	0.00	26.05

Indicator	Mar 26	Jun 26	Jul 26	Aug 26	Sep 26	TTM	Median
EPS	10.99	10.47	10.47	—	—	10.47	0.36
EPS Forecast	9.60	10.37	10.37	—	—	10.37	0.25
Revenue	692.00M	674.00M	—	—	—	674.00M	66.00M
Gross Profit	600.00M	587.00M	—	—	—	587.00M	—
EBITDA	406.00M	367.00M	—	—	—	367.00M	—

Fair Isaac Corporation

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