The Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television video streaming content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the ABC Signature, Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. It also offers direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, Hulu, and Star+; sports-related entertainment services through ESPN, ESPN on ABC, ESPN+ DTC, and Star; sale/licensing of film and episodic content to third-party television and VOD services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; DVD and Blu-ray discs, electronic home video licenses, and VOD rental services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts comprising Walt Disney World Resort, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney, as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii. It also licenses its intellectual property to a third party for operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort; licenses trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games; operates a direct-to-home satellite distribution platform; sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.

Компания Walt Disney демонстрирует смешанную картину в плане фундаментальных показателей. С одной стороны, P/E и P/B находятся ниже медианы отрасли, что указывает на недооцененность. Однако показатели P/S и P/FCF значительно превышают медианные значения, что может свидетельствовать о переоцененности в этих аспектах. Долговая нагрузка компании относительно низкая по сравнению с отраслью, что является положительным фактором. Тем не менее, текущие и быстрые коэффициенты ниже медианных значений, что вызывает опасения по поводу ликвидности. Дивидендная доходность на уровне 0.68 также положительно влияет на восприятие компании. Прибыль и выручка имеют стабильный рост, однако маржа прибыли и валовая маржа показывают снижение, что может негативно сказаться на будущих доходах. Общая картина указывает на необходимость осторожности в оценке, несмотря на некоторые сильные стороны компании.

Walt Disney Company (The)

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Key Points
Josh D'Amaro will watch over his firstearnings callas CEO next week.
Two big Disney films will premiere in May.
Several new attractions will open at Disney World later this month, ahead of the peak summer travel season.
Every month matters for Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), but May is going to be particularly busy. Disney has not one, but two big movies hitting theaters. The media also has several new attractions debuting in Florida, kicking off what is calls Disney's Cool Kids' Summer event.
There's also a critical financial update for Disney next week. With Disney's global entertainment empire facing headwinds, are the tailwinds still there? Important numbers will come out in May. With Disney stock kicking off this week on a 10% year-to-date decline, let's take a closer look at four dates that can help turn the House of Mouse around.
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May 1
After a quiet April at the multiplex, Disney has two big movies coming out in May. The first theatrical release for Disney is The Devil Wears Prada 2. It hits the silver screen this weekend. Disney didn't put out the original; 20th Century Fox hit the market with The Devil Wears Prada 20 years ago. Disney acquired the studio in 2019.
Disney has done a good job of breathing new life into 20th Century Fox's Avatar franchise. The 2006 release of The Devil Wears Prada made a modest $125 million at the box office. There were 13 other movies that fared better that year. Things should work better this time, and not just because ticket prices have more than doubled since then.
Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Stanley Tucci, and Emily Blunt return, brighter stars than they were two decades ago. The film has also become a cult classic, now with multigenerational appeal. Early predictions have The Devil Wears Prada 2 generating roughly $500 million worldwide in ticket sales.
May 6
It won't be just another Disney earnings report on Wednesday morning next week. It will be Josh D'Amaro's first earnings call as CEO. With global skirmishes and rising fuel prices, it will be interesting to see whether international theme parks are losing turnstile clicks. Closer to home, are families reconsidering road trips to visit Disneyland in California or Disney World in Florida?
Analysts aren't holding out for much. They see revenue rising 5% to $24.8 billion for the fiscal second quarter that ended in March. The bar is even lower for the bottom line, with Wall Street pros targeting a 3% increase to $1.49 a share. Disney's own guidance from early February is modeling double-digit growth in operating income in the second half of the fiscal year. It will be interesting to see if that's the case, now that we're already one month into that part of Disney's fiscal year. The media giant will have no shortage of reasons to talk back its initial optimism, but it will also be that much more potent if it's weathering the storm well since its last update.
May 22
Three weeks after The Devil Wears Prada 2's premiere, Disney brings an even bigger franchise to the cinema. The Mandalorian & Grogu taps the potent Star Wars property that put Disney+ on the map shortly after its 2019 launch.
It's a high-profile release, but naturally, this one can go either way. A story that cultivated an audience on the small screen doesn't typically inspire blockbuster ticket sales at the multiplex. It will need good reviews and strong word of mouth. As Mando himself says on the show, "This is the way." In three weeks, this is also the weigh.
May 26
There are plenty of dates for Disney World fans to watch in the coming weeks. The updated Big Thunder Mountain Railroad mine coaster reopens on May 3. Many of Disney's global theme parks will have Star War-themed celebration the next day, as "May the Fourth" is considered the franchise's unofficial holiday. A new Grogu-themed mission will be added to the popular Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run simulator on May 22, coinciding with the new film's release.
However, the real days that Florida theme park enthusiasts are circling will take place near the end of the month. New experiences are rolling out at all of Disney World's gated attractions. Epcot will have guests flying high with the introduction of Soarin' Across America. The Muppets will take over the Rock & Roller Coaster thrill ride at Disney's Hollywood Studios. Bluey will make his Florida debut at Disney's Animal Kingdom. Jessie's Roundup transforms The Diamond Horseshoe saloon into an interactive revue featuring Toy Story characters.
Disney World has some major E-ticket attractions coming in the next few years. This spring, it will be a series of bunt singles, but when you're a contact hitter like Disney, string enough hits together, and you're going to bring everybody home sooner or later.
Should you buy stock in Walt Disney right now?
Before you buy stock in Walt Disney, consider this:
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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $492,752!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,327,935!*
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Rick Munarriz has positions in Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

4 Dates for Disney Stock Investors to Circle in May

Key Points
Given how much Disney’s parks and cruises rely on strong discretionary spending, a severe recession would negatively impact sales.
With more live sports moving to streaming, there’s a chance the cable networks could become an even bigger drag on the company’s financial performance.
In the unlikely event that both situations occurred simultaneously, Disney would be able to navigate the temporary headwinds.
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) owns extremely valuable intellectual property (IP), spanning Disney Animation and Pixar, as well as Marvel and Star Wars. And its characters and storylines resonate strongly with people around the world.
Consequently, this is an entertainment powerhouse that can monetize its IP in various ways. But it still faces risks that investors need to be aware of.
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Here's the worst-case scenario for Disney stock.
A severe recession will hurt Disney's experiences segment
Disney's success is certainly influenced by discretionary spending activity. This is particularly true at its theme parks and cruises, which are grouped in the experiences segment. An adverse economic scenario that results in much weaker consumer spending across income groups would undoubtedly hurt Disney's operations.
Consider that a seven-day trip to Disney World in Orlando for a family of four can cost thousands of dollars (not including travel). This is a significant expense that families would delay if times got tough, and they prioritized saving cash.
During the Great Recession almost two decades ago, Disney felt the pain. Its parks and resorts saw revenue dip 7% in fiscal 2009, while operating income cratered 25%.
Cable TV's decline could accelerate
In fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 27, 2025), Disney generated $3 billion of its operating income from linear cable networks (excluding ESPN), representing 17% of the company's total. While still a significant part of the business, that figure fell 14% year over year.
Obviously, the rise of streaming entertainment is the cause. Consumers generally appreciate the wide selection of content and the convenience of being able to watch at any time. Going forward, the fall of linear TV will continue.
To Disney's credit, its leadership in live sports, through ESPN, has allowed it to maintain relevance in the legacy media landscape. But now that it has launched a flagship ESPN streaming platform, and given that sports rights are increasingly being bought by streamers, there's a chance that cable TV sales and profits could fall at an accelerated rate.
And this unfavorable trend would more than offset Disney's surging streaming profits.
Keep your eyes on the downside
When it comes to the stocks they own or are interested in buying, the best investors understand the bear case perhaps even better than the bull case. Thinking about the worst-case scenario strengthens the conviction you might have.
Regarding Disney, I think it's unlikely that these negative outcomes -- a severe recession impacting experiences and an accelerated decline in cable channels -- will occur simultaneously.
In the low-probability event that they do occur at the same time, it should prove to be a temporary headwind. Once economic conditions improve, as they always do, parks and cruises will thrive again. And on the entertainment side, Disney has its growing streaming operations to lean on as linear TV gets disrupted.
Should you buy stock in Walt Disney right now?
Before you buy stock in Walt Disney, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walt Disney wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $492,752!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,327,935!*
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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 28, 2026.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Here's the Worst-Case Scenario for Disney Stock

Key Points
Disney’s transition away from its legacy cable networks adds an element of uncertainty that the market has to digest.
The company’s various streaming platforms and experiences division are powered by an unmatched collection of intellectual property.
Even though this consumer stock is worth a closer look today, investors should realize that it's best to temper expectations.
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) shares, which trade 48% off their peak from March 2021 (as of April 22), haven't performed well. The company is navigating a changing media landscape, as it looks to reduce its dependence on traditional cable TV, an industry in secular decline.
Still, investors will find it easy to be optimistic. Could buying this entertainment stock today set you up for life?
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The House of Mouse is an advantaged business in the markets it serves
Long-term investors, those willing to buy and hold businesses for at least five years, are in the right place. Disney fits the bill for being a high-quality company. It possesses a strong position in the various markets it serves.
Disney+ has 131.6 million subscribers (as of Sept. 27, 2025). Hulu (excluding Live TV) has 59.7 million. This business also launched its ESPN flagship direct-to-consumer platform in August last year. These three services easily make Disney a leading player in the streaming industry. And compared to rivals that are reliant on a single platform, Disney has the ability to bundle its different services to drive higher sign-ups and retention.
Additionally, the experiences segment dominates in the physical world. According to a September 2023 press release, "Disney has seven of the top ten most attended theme parks in the world." And the company will go from having eight cruise ships currently to 13 powering its fleet around the world.
To fully appreciate Disney's impressive position in its end markets, consider what it would take to create a competitor from scratch. On the entertainment and sports fronts, you'd need to invest in the technological infrastructure, while acquiring content.
And when it comes to experiences, the barriers to entry are massive. Imagine trying to fund, design, construct, market, and operate a single theme park or cruise ship. Failure is likely guaranteed.
If you're somehow able to overcome these immense obstacles, though, a congratulations is in order. But there will be another challenge waiting for you. It would be impossible to fill the streaming platforms with a full content slate and build attractions at the parks and on the cruises without intellectual property. When it comes to this invaluable intangible asset, no one comes close to Disney.
Investors aren't looking at a home-run opportunity
In addition to Disney's notable position atop the entertainment sector, its valuation is compelling. At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7, the stock looks like a good buying opportunity right now.
But investors must realize that they aren't dealing with a potential home-run situation here.
For a stock to set you up for life, I suspect it would need to generate a 50-fold gain, at a minimum, over the next 30 years. Since it isn't an early stage growth stock, Disney simply doesn't fall into this bucket of high-octane opportunities. And quite frankly, there aren't many businesses that qualify.
Should you buy stock in Walt Disney right now?
Before you buy stock in Walt Disney, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walt Disney wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $498,522!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,276,807!*
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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 26, 2026.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Could Buying Disney Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

How to Approach Stock Market Investing Through Surges and Falls

Netflix’s NFLX engagement momentum is strengthening, raising confidence in the sustainability of its growth. The company reported a record high in its primary engagement quality metric in the first quarter of 2026, indicating users are increasingly satisfied with the content experience. This is critical, as stronger engagement directly improves retention — driving repeat viewing, reducing churn and supporting steady subscriber growth.
Content remains central to this momentum. High-impact releases such as Bridgerton Season 4 and One Piece Season 2, along with live events like the World Baseball Classic and BTS The Comeback Live, are delivering outsized engagement — often translating into spikes in sign-ups and deeper audience connection. Netflix is also expanding beyond traditional streaming through video podcasts, gaming and live programming — broadening how and when users interact with the platform. These efforts, combined with AI-driven personalization, are enhancing content discovery and keeping users engaged for longer periods.
This rising engagement is reinforcing Netflix’s monetization path. Better retention supports stable subscription revenues, while higher engagement improves the effectiveness of its growing advertising business. The company’s ability to implement price increases with limited churn further highlights the strength of its value proposition.
However, maintaining high engagement levels will require consistent content quality and continued innovation in an increasingly competitive landscape. Even so, Netflix’s proven ability to convert engagement into retention, monetization and pricing strength suggests its growth is becoming structurally durable. With a scalable content strategy and deepening user engagement, the company appears well-positioned to sustain its targeted 12-14% revenue growth for 2026 and beyond.
Netflix Faces Stiff Competition From Key Rivals
The Walt Disney Company DIS leverages a strong engagement flywheel, competing with Netflix on retention and growth. Disney benefits from unmatched IP depth and ecosystem integration, where franchises like Zootopia and Avatar boost Disney+ engagement and extend across parks and merchandise. It also reduces churn through bundling (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN) and invests in AI-driven features. However, Disney faces complexity and high content costs, though its ecosystem and engagement momentum support long-term growth.
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD competes with Netflix using a content-centric engagement strategy focused on HBO-quality storytelling and global expansion. WBD benefits from strong franchises like Game of Thrones, DC and Harry Potter, driving retention and growth. It uses multiple engagement levers like content quality, product improvements and monetization. However, WBD faces financial constraints, leverage concerns and weaker diversification, limiting its competitive strength despite solid engagement momentum.
NFLX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Netflix have dropped 1.3% in the year-to-date period compared with the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector’s fall of 2.8%.
NFLX’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Netflix appears overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 7.32X, higher than the industry's 4.11X. NFLX carries a Value Score of D.
NFLX’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.46 per share, up by 10.2% over the past 30 days. This indicates a 36.76% increase from the previous year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NFLX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is Here
The AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.
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Netflix's Engagement Momentum Builds: Is Growth Sustainable?

In the latest trading session, Walt Disney (DIS) closed at $104.29, marking a -1.89% move from the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.64%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.59%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.59%.
Coming into today, shares of the entertainment company had gained 8.52% in the past month. In that same time, the Consumer Discretionary sector gained 7.49%, while the S&P 500 gained 9.33%.
The upcoming earnings release of Walt Disney will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on May 6, 2026. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.49, showcasing a 2.76% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $25.03 billion, showing a 5.96% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $6.61 per share and revenue of $101.05 billion, indicating changes of +11.47% and +7.01%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Walt Disney. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 0.17% fall in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Walt Disney currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Investors should also note Walt Disney's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 16.09. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 21.91, so one might conclude that Walt Disney is trading at a discount comparatively.
It is also worth noting that DIS currently has a PEG ratio of 1.49. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Media Conglomerates industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.06.
The Media Conglomerates industry is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 25, placing it within the top 11% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is Here
The AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.
See Stocks Now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Walt Disney (DIS) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Know

Netflix’s NFLX global expansion opportunity remains wide open as it plans to expand beyond its current base of 325 million paid members toward a long-term ambition of 1 billion users. Despite its scale, the company still reaches below 45% of broadband households and captures only about 5% of global TV viewership share, underscoring a significant untapped market. Management estimates a roughly $670 billion addressable revenue opportunity, highlighting the long runway ahead.
International expansion is accelerating, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where revenues grew 20% year on year to $1.51 billion in the first quarter of 2026, outpacing Netflix’s overall growth. This outperformance is supported by strong local content and rising streaming adoption, highlighting the region’s importance to the company’s long-term strategy. At the same time, Netflix is strengthening its revenue model beyond subscriptions. Its advertising business is expected to reach about $3 billion in 2026, doubling year over year, while pricing power and strong retention support ARPU expansion.
Importantly, Netflix benefits from the ongoing shift from linear TV to streaming, a structural tailwind that continues to expand its opportunity set. While competition and content spending remain challenges, the company’s scale, engagement flywheel and diversified growth drivers position it well.
Netflix’s projected 12%-14% total revenue growth for 2026 reflects steady execution as the company continues to scale its monetization efforts and capture a meaningful share of its vast untappedglobal marketopportunity.
Netflix’s Global Push Faces Rising Streaming Rivals
In terms of global expansion opportunities, two strong competitors to consider alongside Netflix are Amazon AMZN and Disney DIS.
Amazon has become a formidable challenge to Netflix's global expansion in the face of rising streaming rivals. It uses a bundled ecosystem strategy through Prime, combining video with e-commerce and cloud services, lowering costs and boosting engagement globally. AMZN also benefits from scale, infrastructure and a 315 million ad-supported audience. While content identity is weaker, Amazon’s ecosystem integration and global reach give it a clear expansion edge over Netflix.
Disney uses a content-first, franchise-driven strategy powered by strong intellectual property like Marvel and Star Wars. DIS benefits from global storytelling, localized content and bundling with Hulu and ESPN to boost engagement. While Disney faces higher costs and complexity, its IP strength, monetization and global brand make it a major competitor to Netflix.
NFLX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Netflix have gained 3.8% in the year-to-date period, outperforming both the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry’s return of 1.3% and the broader Consumer Discretionary sector’s fall of 2.6%.
NFLX’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Netflix appears overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 7.7X, higher than the industry's 4.11X. NFLX carries a Value Score of D.
NFLX’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.19 per share, up by 4 cents over the past 30 days. This indicates a 26.09% increase from the previous year.
Netflix, Inc. Price and Consensus
NFLX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Netflix's Global Expansion Still Wide Open: More Upside Ahead?

An Alphabet Stock Deep Dive

Key Points
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders will vote on the Paramount Skydance acquisition on April 23, and approval is widely expected.
The UK's Competition and Markets Authority is already preparing to investigate the deal.
History shows that media mega-mergers typically pass with significant concessions rather than outright blocks.
Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) shareholders will soon cast their votes on the Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ: PSKY) acquisition. The special meeting is scheduled for Thursday, April 23, next week. With unanimous support from the board of directors, the Hollywood mega-merger will probably get the green light.
But that's not the whole story. Roughly speaking, that's step nine of approximately 47.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Don't expect fireworks from U.S. regulators
In the U.S., regulatory approval looks like a layup. The current administration isn't exactly itching to block media mergers, and the Ellison family at the top of Paramount Skydance has many friends in high places. Domestic opposition seems unlikely.
The deal doesn't live or die in Washington, though. Many of the details will be hammered out in London and Brussels -- and the whole transaction could fall apart in the halls of European bureaucracy.
In the United Kingdom, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is already sharpening its pencils. The competition watchdog is seeking public comments, which is British regulatory speak for "We're about to get very interested in this."
They have reason to be. The combined Paramount/Warner would own the HBO brand, Paramount+, Channel 5, Eurosport, MTV, Nickelodeon, and both major studios' theatrical distribution arms. That's a huge slice of the media market on one plate.
The European Commission will run a parallel review. Expect similar concerns about streaming concentration, content licensing, and whether European consumers will end up with fewer choices. The British antitrust body has historically been stricter than its EU counterpart, though.
Microsoft and Disney walked this rough road before
History suggests that the deal will pass, but probably not in its current form. It's easy to find recent examples of this.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had to hand Ubisoft (OTC: UBSFY) its cloud gaming rights for 15 years to push its $69 billion Activision buyout through the CMA in 2023.
Four years earlier, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) had to sell off Fox's regional sports networks before closing that $71 billion takeover.
In other words, media mega-mergers usually don't get blocked; they get carved up.
The concession menu
So what might overseas regulators demand here? Possibilities include:
Selling off the Paramount+ or Max streaming services in specific European markets.
Divesting Paramount's Channel 5 or other linear TV assets in the U.K.
Licensing commitments that give competitors access to the merged giant's massive content library.
Any of these modifications would change the math on synergies and strategic value. If the regulatory requirements are too strict, Oracle founder Larry Ellison might withdraw his financing support.
Then there's the calendar. These reviews take 12 to 18 months, minimum. The Activision reviews stretched across 21 months. In the Fox merger, the regulatory approvals took 14 months. If the Warner Bros. process drags into the 2028 elections and beyond, a new U.S. administration could take a harder look at a media empire with "Ellison" on the letterhead. Even the upcoming midterm elections could shake things up this fall.
These are not firm predictions, but variables worth tracking.
Could Netflix pick up the scraps?
One more thing: Forced divestitures would mean that someone has to buy the castoffs. Could a competitor like Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) end up owning pieces of WBD's European operations because regulators demanded a sale? Stranger things have happened, you know.
(Sorry. Couldn't help myself.)
So the shareholder vote almost doesn't matter, and the domestic review should be easy. The real story unfolds over the next year-plus as international regulators pick through the deal.
Warner Bros. shareholders should settle in and pay close attention to the concessions. That's where the actual value of this merger will be decided. If the deal dies, it'll likely be because European concessions made the buyout unattractive to Paramount CEO David Ellison and his deep-pocketed family.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Netflix and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft, Netflix, Walt Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.