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The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday rose by +1.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) rose by +0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose by +1.82%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose by +1.21%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose by +1.83%.
US stocks rallied sharply on Monday after US and Chinese negotiators, who met over the weekend in Malaysia, said they reached a tentative trade agreement to be finalized at Thursday's summit between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Malaysia. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the agreement means the US threat of a 100% tariff on US imports from China, set to start November 1, is "effectively off the table." Meanwhile, China agreed not to restrict the export of rare earth metals for at least one year and to buy a "substantial" amount of US soybeans. The two sides also made progress on shipping fees and US demands that China crack down on the export to the US of fentanyl and precursors. The two sides may also reach an agreement that would allow US consumers to continue to access TikTok.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said Monday that the pool of candidates for the next Fed Chair has been narrowed to Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder. President Trump is expected to announce a decision on a new Fed Chair by year-end to replace current Fed Chair Powell, whose term as the Fed Chairman ends on May 15, 2026. Mr. Powell's separate term as a Fed Governor runs until January 2028, though he faces pressure from Mr. Trump to step down as a Fed Governor as well, so Mr. Trump can appoint a more dovish Fed governor.
This is a busy week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when it is expected to cut its federal funds rate target by -25 bp. Also, five of the Magnificent Seven companies report earnings this week, with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.
There was some carry-over support from last Friday's Sep US CPI report of +3.0% y/y for both the nominal and core figures, which was slightly weaker than expectations of +3.1% y/y for both figures.
Trade relations with Canada were a negative factor for stocks on Monday after President Trump said on Saturday that he would impose a new 10% tariff on US imports from Canada as punishment for last week's anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario. Mr. Trump initially said that he was only halting US trade negotiations with Canada due to the ad, but he escalated the punishment over the weekend by imposing a new 10% tariff, even though Ontario had agreed to pause the ad campaign.
Ontario's ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers. Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority. If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump's power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.
The US government shutdown continues into its fifth week, weighing on market sentiment and the US economy. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including all the recent weekly unemployment claims reports, the September unemployment and payroll report, Aug trade balance, Sep retail sales, Sep PPI, Sep housing starts, Sep industrial production, Sep leading indicators, and others. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2.
Overseas stock markets on Monday closed higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.64%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.18%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.46%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Monday rose slightly by +0.5 tick. The 10-year T-note yield fell -1.2 bp to 3.989%. T-note prices initially fell on Monday due to the US-Chinese trade agreement, which reduced safe-haven demand for Treasury securities and was positive for the US and Chinese economies. T-note prices were also pressured by the rally in US stocks.
However, T-note prices recovered later in the day as the 10-year inflation expectations rate fell by -1.1 bp to 2.288%. T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
The markets are discounting a 98% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Oct 28-29).
European government bond yields closed lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.0 bp to 2.616%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell 3.0 bp at 4.402%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks all closed higher on Monday, led by a +4.3% gain in Tesla (TSLA), a +3.6% gain in Alphabet (GOOG), and gains of more than +2% in Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL).
Chip stocks traded higher across the board Monday, led by a +11% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM) on news of a new AI chip and computer line to compete with Nvidia. Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose more than +5%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) rose more than +4%. ON Semiconductors (ON), Lam Research (LRCX), and Intel (INTC) all rose by more than +3%.
Crypto stocks traded higher, with support from Monday's gains of more than +3% in Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) and +5% in Ethereum (^ETHUSD). Riot Platforms (RIOT) rallied more than +7%, Strategy (MSTR) rallied +2.3%, and Coinbase (COIN) rallied +2.0%.
Avidity Biosciences (RNA) rallied +42% after news that Swiss-based Novartis plans to buy the company in a deal worth $12 billion. Novartis ADR shares (NVS) fell -0.9%.
Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) agreed to buy Cadence Bank (CADE) for $7.4 billion in an all-stock deal to expand into the Southeast and South. Huntington fell -1.8%, while Cadence rallied +4.4%.
American Water Works (AWK) fell -2.5%, and Essential Utilities (WTRG) fell -1.4%, after news that the two companies finalized AWK's purchase of Essential Utilities for $12 billion in an all-stock deal.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) rallied more than +7% after raising its full-year net sales guidance.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) rallied about +2% on news of an agreement with the National Football League and sports merchandiser Fanatics Inc to develop a line of fan apparel.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rose more than +4% after CICC gave the brokerage a new rating of outperform.
Newmont (NEM) fell more than -5% as the company seeks to gain control of Barrick's gold mines in Nevada.
Boeing (BA) rose +0.8% even though factory workers in St Louis narrowly rejected a new 5-year contract that would have ended a 3-month strike that has disrupted the company's main military manufacturing operations.
Earnings Reports(10/28/2025)
DR Horton Inc (DHI), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Wayfair Inc (W), Labcorp Holdings Inc (LH), Corning Inc (GLW), Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI), Sysco Corp (SYY), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), VF Corp (VFC), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), A O Smith Corp (AOS), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Sherwin-Williams Co/The (SHW), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA), IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD), Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC), Applied Industrial Technologie (AIT), Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA), Repligen Corp (RGEN), Xylem Inc/NY (XYL), Invesco Ltd (IVZ), SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (REGN), American Tower Corp (AMT), Incyte Corp (INCY), ATI Inc (ATI), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), Sensata Technologies Holding P (ST), WP Carey Inc (WPC), Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH), Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR), Landstar System Inc (LSTR), Equity Residential (EQR), ONEOK Inc (OKE), Flowserve Corp (FLS), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Edison International (EIX), CoStar Group Inc (CSGP), Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR), MSA Safety Inc (MSA), Chemed Corp (CHE), Range Resources Corp (RRC), BXP Inc (BXP), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd (RNR), Regency Centers Corp (REG), ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS), Veralto Corp (VLTO), Visa Inc (V), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Element Solutions Inc (ESI), Highwoods Properties Inc (HIW), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Teradyne Inc (TER).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Rally on US-China Preliminary Trade Agreement

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.41%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.49%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.87%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +1.51%.
US stocks rallied today after US and Chinese negotiators, who met over the weekend in Malaysia, said they reached a tentative trade agreement to be finalized at Thursday's summit between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the agreement means the US threat of a 100% tariff on US imports from China, set to start November 1, is "effectively off the table." Meanwhile, China agreed not to restrict the export of rare earth metals for at least one year and to buy a "substantial" amount of US soybeans. The two sides also made progress on shipping fees and US demands that China crack down on the export to the US of fentanyl and precursors. The two sides may also reach an agreement that would allow US consumers to continue to access TikTok.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said today that the pool of candidates for the next Fed Chair has been narrowed to Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder. President Trump is expected to announce a decision on a new Fed Chair by year-end to replace current Fed Chair Powell, whose term as the Fed Chairman ends on May 15, 2026. Mr. Powell's separate term as a Fed Governor runs until January 2028, though he faces pressure from Mr. Trump to step down as a Fed Governor as well, so Mr. Trump can appoint a more dovish Fed governor.
This is a busy week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when it is expected to cut its federal funds rate target by -25 bp. Also, five of the Magnificent Seven companies report earnings this week, with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.
There is some carry-over support from last Friday's Sep US CPI report of +3.0% y/y for both the nominal and core figures, which was slightly weaker than expectations for both of +3.1% y/y.
Trade relations with Canada are a negative factor for stocks after President Trump on Saturday said he will impose a new 10% tariff on US imports from Canada as punishment for last week's anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario. Mr. Trump initially said that he was only halting US trade negotiations with Canada due to the ad, but he escalated the punishment over the weekend by imposing a new 10% tariff, even though Ontario had agreed to pause the ad campaign.
Ontario's ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers. Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority. If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump's power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.
The US government shutdown continues into its fifth week, weighing on market sentiment and the US economy. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including all the recent weekly unemployment claims reports, the September unemployment and payroll report, Aug trade balance, Sep retail sales, Sep PPI, Sep housing starts, Sep industrial production, Sep leading indicators, and others. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.62%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.18%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.46%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are down -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.3 bp at 4.024%. T-note prices are trading lower due to the US-Chinese trade agreement, which reduced safe-haven demand for Treasury securities and is positive for the US and Chinese economies. T-note prices are also being pressured by the rally in US stocks and today's +0.7 bp rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate.
T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
The markets are discounting a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Oct 28-29).
European government bond yields are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.3 bp at 2.629%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.0 bp at 4.412%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks are all trading higher today, led by a gain of more than +4% in Tesla (TSLA), and gains of more than +2% in Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Chip stocks are trading higher across the board today, led by a +12.6% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM) on news of a new AI chip and computer line to compete with Nvidia. Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +5%. Arm Holdings (ARM), ON Semiconductors (ON), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +4%.
Crypto stocks are trading higher today, with support from today's gains of more than +3% in Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) and +5% in Ethereum (^ETHUSD). Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4% and Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +2%.
Avidity Biosciences (RNA) is up +42% after news that Swiss-based Novartis plans to buy the company in a deal worth $12 billion. Novartis ADR shares (NVS) are down -1%.
Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) agreed to buy Cadence Bank (CADE) for $7.4 billion in an all-stock deal to expand into the Southeast and South. Huntington is down more than -2% while Cadence is up more than +4%.
American Water Works (AWK) is down -3% and Essential Utilities (WTRG) is down -0.9% after news that the two companies have finalized AWK's purchase of Essential Utilities for $12 billion in an all-stock deal.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is up more than +7% after raising its full-year net sales guidance.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is up more than +3% on news of an agreement with the National Football League and sports merchandiser Fanatics Inc to develop a line of fan apparel.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than 4% after CICC gave the brokerage a new rating of outperform.
Newmont (NEM) is down more than -6% as the company seeks to gain control of Barrick's gold mines in Nevada.
Boeing (BA) is trading slightly higher even though factory workers in St Louis narrowly rejected a new 5-year contract that would have ended a 3-month strike that has disrupted the company's main military manufacturing operations.
Earnings Reports(10/27/2025)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Nucor Corp (NUE), NOV Inc (NOV), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/T (HIG), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Crane Co (CR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Welltower Inc (WELL), Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Confluent Inc (CFLT), Olin Corp (OLN), Waste Management Inc (WM), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.87%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.32%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.82%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +1.30%.
US stocks rallied today after US and Chinese negotiators, who met over the weekend in Malaysia, said they reached a tentative trade agreement to be finalized at Thursday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the agreement means that the US threat of a 100% tariff on US imports from China starting November 1 is “effectively off the table.” Meanwhile, China agreed not to restrict the export of rare earth metals for at least one year and to buy a “substantial” amount of US soybeans. The two sides also made progress on shipping fees and US demands that China crack down on the export to the US of fentanyl and precursors. The two sides may also reach an agreement that would allow US consumers to continue to access TikTok.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said today that the pool of candidates for the next Fed Chair has been narrowed to Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder. President Trump is expected to announce a decision on a new Fed Chair by year-end to replace current Fed Chair Powell, whose term as the Fed Chairman ends on May 15, 2026. Mr. Powell’s term as a Fed Governor runs until January 2028, although he will face pressure from Mr. Trump to step down as a Fed Governor as well, so Mr. Trump can appoint a more dovish Fed governor.
This will be a busy week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when it is expected to cut its federal funds rate target by -25 bp. Also, five of the Magnificent Seven stocks report earnings this week, with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.
There is some carry-over support from last Friday’s Sep US CPI report of +3.0% y/y for both the nominal and core figures, which was slightly weaker than expectations for both of +3.1% y/y.
Trade relations with Canada are a negative factor for stocks after President Trump on Saturday said he will impose a new 10% tariff on US imports from Canada as punishment for last week’s anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario. Mr. Trump initially said only that he was halting US trade negotiations with Canada due to the ad, but he escalated the punishment over the weekend by imposing a new 10% tariff, even though Ontario had agreed to pause the ad campaign.
Ontario’s ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers. Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority. If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump’s power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.
The US government shutdown continues into its fifth week, weighing on market sentiment and the US economy. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including all the recent weekly initial unemployment claims reports, the September unemployment and payroll report, Aug trade balance, Sep retail sales, Sep PPI, Sep housing starts, Sep industrial production, Sep leading indicators, and others. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.27%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.18%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.46%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are down -4.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.0 bp at 4.010%. T-note prices are trading lower due to the US-Chinese trade agreement, which is positive for the US and Chinese economies. T-note prices are also being pressured by the rally in US stocks and today’s +0.7 bp rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate.
T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
The markets are discounting a 97% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Oct 28-29).
European government bond yields are steady to lower. The 10-year German bund yield is unchanged at 2.626%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.0 bp at 4.411%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks are all trading higher today, led by gains of more than +2% in Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META).
Chip stocks are trading higher across the board today, led by gains of more than +3% in Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX).
Crypto stocks are trading higher today, with support from today’s gains of more than +3% in Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) and +5% in Ethereum (^ETHUSD). Strategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +2%. Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +1%.
Avidity Biosciences (RNA) is up +42% after news that Swiss-based Novartis plans to buy the company in a deal worth $12 billion. Novartis ADR shares (NVS) down -2%.
Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) agreed to buy Cadence Bank (CADE) for $7.4 billion in an all-stock deal to expand into the Southeast and South. Huntington is down -2% while Cadence is up more than +4%.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is up more than +4% after raising its full-year net sales guidance.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is up more than +2% on news of an agreement with the National Football League and sports merchandiser Fanatics Inc to develop a line of fan apparel.
Robinhood (HOOD) is up more than 5% after CICC gave the brokerage a new rating of outperform.
Newmont (NEM) is down -4% as the company seeks to gain control of Barrick’s gold mines in Nevada.
Boeing (BA) is trading slightly higher even though factory workers in St Louis narrowly rejected a new 5-year contract that would have ended a 3-month strike that has disrupted the company’s main military manufacturing operations.
Earnings Reports(10/27/2025)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Nucor Corp (NUE), NOV Inc (NOV), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/T (HIG), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Crane Co (CR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Welltower Inc (WELL), Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Confluent Inc (CFLT), Olin Corp (OLN), Waste Management Inc (WM), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

How Investing Has Changed in the Last 5 Years

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday rose by +0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) rose by +1.01%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose by +1.04%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose by +0.74%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose by +1.00%.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes both rallied to new record highs on Friday. Stocks found support from the slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report, which gave the Fed a bit more latitude to cut interest rates. The Sep CPI report of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y. Also, the Sep core CPI report of +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
While the markets reacted favorably to Friday’s CPI report, the Sep CPI report of +3.0% y/y rose to match the current 16-month high, and the core CPI report of +3.0% y/y was still far above the Fed’s inflation target of +2.0%.
Stocks also saw support from Friday’s Oct S&P US manufacturing PMI report of +0.2 to 52.2, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 52.0. Also, the Oct S&P US services PMI report of +1.0 to 55.2 was stronger than expectations for a -0.7 point decline to 53.5.
On the negative side, Friday’s final-Oct University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell -1.4 points to 53.6, which was weaker than market expectations of a -0.5 point drop to 54.5.
Stocks were undercut when President Trump late Thursday announced he had terminated trade negotiations with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario that apparently hit a nerve with Mr. Trump. The ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers.
Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority. If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump’s power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.
Later in the day, Ontario said it plans to pause the anti-tariff ad campaign. Also, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada is prepared to resume trade talks “when the Americans are ready.”
The markets are focused on US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Positive corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
Overseas stock markets on Friday closed higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.11%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.71%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.35%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) fell -1 tick, while the 10-year T-note yield fell -0.4 bp to 3.997%. T-notes rebounded from early losses on the slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report. Also, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate fell by -0.6 bp to 2.298%.
T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
The markets are discounting a 97% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
European government bond yields rose. The 10-year German bund yield rose +4.3 bp to 2.626%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +0.8 bp to 4.432%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks on Friday closed higher, except for the -3.4% decline in Tesla (TSLA). Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA) both showed gains of more than +2%.
There were some notable gains in chip stocks Friday, which supported gains in tech stocks and the overall market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallied more than +7%, and Micron Technology (MU) rallied more than +5%. Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Lam Research (LRCX) rallied more than +2%. Intel (INTC) rose +0.3% on a favorable earnings report and strong revenue guidance.
Crypto stocks saw support on Friday, with Bitcoin up +1% and Ethereum up +2.7%. Also, Coinbase (COIN) rallied more than +9% on an upgrade from JPMorgan to overweight from neutral due to some risk abatement and increasing monetization opportunities. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rallied +4.5%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) rallied +1.7%.
Ford (F) rallied more than +12% after beating analyst earnings expectations and expressing optimism about a bounce-back from a disruptive fire at a major supplier.
Newmont (NEM) fell more than -6% after the company said that gold production in 2026 may be no higher than in 2025.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) fell more than -15% after reporting disappointing 2026 net sales.
Earnings Reports(10/27/2025)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Nucor Corp (NUE), NOV Inc (NOV), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/T (HIG), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Crane Co (CR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Welltower Inc (WELL), Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Confluent Inc (CFLT), Olin Corp (OLN), Waste Management Inc (WM), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Rally to Record Highs on Favorable US CPI Report

Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Netflix Inc (Symbol: NFLX), where a total of 264,995 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 26.5 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 648.5% of NFLX's average daily trading volume over the past month of 4.1 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $1110 strike call option expiring October 24, 2025, with 14,141 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.4 million underlying shares of NFLX. Below is a chart showing NFLX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $1110 strike highlighted in orange:
Coinbase Global Inc (Symbol: COIN) options are showing a volume of 381,342 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 38.1 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 401.9% of COIN's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 9.5 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $350 strike call option expiring October 24, 2025, with 18,788 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.9 million underlying shares of COIN. Below is a chart showing COIN's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $350 strike highlighted in orange:
And Tesla Inc (Symbol: TSLA) options are showing a volume of 3.2 million contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 318.7 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 357.5% of TSLA's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 89.1 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $450 strike call option expiring October 24, 2025, with 193,342 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 19.3 million underlying shares of TSLA. Below is a chart showing TSLA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $450 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for NFLX options, COIN options, or TSLA options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
Top Stocks Held By Seth Klarman
SLAB Options Chain
ENFR Options Chain
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Notable Friday Option Activity: NFLX, COIN, TSLA

The best performing sector as of midday Friday is the Technology & Communications sector, higher by 1.0%. Within that group, Coinbase Global Inc (Symbol: COIN) and International Business Machines Corp (Symbol: IBM) are two large stocks leading the way, showing a gain of 8.7% and 7.5%, respectively. Among technology ETFs, one ETF following the sector is the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (Symbol: XLK), which is up 1.7% on the day, and up 26.90% year-to-date. Coinbase Global Inc, meanwhile, is up 41.29% year-to-date, and International Business Machines Corp is up 41.65% year-to-date. IBM makes up approximately 2.4% of the underlying holdings of XLK.
The next best performing sector is the Utilities sector, up 0.7%. Among large Utilities stocks, Constellation Energy Corp (Symbol: CEG) and Vistra Corp (Symbol: VST) are the most notable, showing a gain of 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively. One ETF closely tracking Utilities stocks is the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU), which is up 1.1% in midday trading, and up 22.83% on a year-to-date basis. Constellation Energy Corp, meanwhile, is up 73.49% year-to-date, and Vistra Corp is up 45.10% year-to-date. Combined, CEG and VST make up approximately 13.1% of the underlying holdings of XLU.
Comparing these stocks and ETFs on a trailing twelve month basis, below is a relative stock price performance chart, with each of the symbols shown in a different color as labeled in the legend at the bottom:
Here's a snapshot of how the S&P 500 components within the various sectors are faring in afternoon trading on Friday. As you can see, seven sectors are up on the day, while one sector is down.
Also see:
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Friday Sector Leaders: Technology & Communications, Utilities

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.04%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.70%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.82%.
Stock indexes are trading higher after today’s slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report gave the Fed a bit more latitude to cut interest rates. The Sep CPI report of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y. Also, the Sep core CPI report of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
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While the markets reacted favorably to today’s CPI report, the Sep CPI report of +3.0% y/y rose to match the current 16-month high, and the core CPI report of +3.0% y/y was still far above the Fed’s inflation target of +2.0%.
Stocks also saw support from today’s Oct S&P US manufacturing PMI report of +0.2 to 52.2, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 52.0. Also, the Oct S&P US services PMI report of +1.0 to 55.2 was stronger than expectations for a -0.7 point decline to 53.5.
On the negative side, today’s final-Oct University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell -1.4 points to 53.6, which was weaker than market expectations of a -0.5 point drop to 54.5.
Stocks were undercut when President Trump late Thursday announced he had terminated trade negotiations with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario that apparently hit a nerve with Mr. Trump. The ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers.
Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority. If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump’s power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.
The markets are focused on US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Positive corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
Overseas stock markets on Friday are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.06%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.71%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.35%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +1 tick, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -0.8 bp at 3.993%. T-notes rebounded from early losses on the slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report. Also, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today is down -0.9 bp at 2.294%.
T-notes have ongoing support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
The markets are discounting a 97% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
European government bond yields are higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +4.5 bp at 2.627%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.4 bp at 4.427%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks today are mostly trading higher, except for a -2% decline in Tesla (TSLA) and a small decline in Meta Platforms (META). Notable gainers include a +2.8% gain in Alphabet (GOOG), and gains of more than 1% in Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN).
Chip stocks are broadly higher today, supporting gains in tech stocks and the overall market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +6%, and Micron Technology (MU) is up more than 4%. Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +3%. Intel (INTC) is up +0.6% on a favorable earnings report and strong revenue guidance.
Crypto stocks are seeing support today with Bitcoin up +0.9% and Ethereum up +2.3%. Also, Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +7% on an upgrade from JPMorgan to overweight from neutral due to some risk abatement and increasing monetization opportunities. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +5%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +3%.
Ford (F) is up more than +11% after beating analyst earnings expectations and expressing optimism about a bounce-back from a disruptive fire at a major supplier.
Newmont (NEM) is down more than -4% after the company said that gold production in 2026 may be no higher than 2025.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is down more than -12% after reporting disappointing 2026 net sales.
Earnings Reports(10/24/2025)
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Gentex Corp (GNTX), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks See Support from Favorable CPI Report

Key Points
AIP adoption propels U.S. commercial revenue up 93%, $1B run rate, and soaring TCV.
Profitability and 94% Rule of 40 score underpin premium valuation despite bubble claims.
Expanding enterprise AI market positions Palantir to capture significant commercial growth ahead.
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, is known for her investments in emerging and transformative technologies such as AI, fintech, and electric vehicles. Some of her most prominent deals include early investments in Tesla, Coinbase, and, of course, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR).
Palantir provides AI infrastructure for various operations. Based in Colorado, this software company specializes in building platforms that allow organizations to analyze and operationalize massive datasets, and is now serving both the government and the private sector.
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Originally, Palantir was known as a government contractor within the defense and intelligence network, but the company has successfully diversified into the commercial sector through its foundry segment. In 2023, Palantir Technologies introduced its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). This breakthrough has allowed the company to venture deeper into the private sector, bringing significant growth to Palantir's U.S. Commercial segment.
Palantir stock profile
Palantir's commercial success immediately attracted attention from investors.
As of October 24, 2025, PLTR stock trades at around $184 per share, with impressive returns across various timelines, including over 300% the last year. These figures place Palantir among the top-performing AI stocks.
That said, the company's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is about 800, which, if it sounds high, it is, at least by traditional valuations. This surge in popularity is the result of the company's reliance on a more diversified mix of clients.
Furthermore, the company achieved a Rule of 40 score of 94% in the second quarter of 2025. This metric adds the growth rate and adjusted operating margins to measure the overall health of a business, and the Rule of 40 score rewards SaaS companies that do well in both.
Values above 40% are considered positive for software companies. Therefore, Palantir's 94% score places it in an exceptional territory. Furthermore, Palantir is growing rapidly while being able to maintain profitability, and all of these factors resulted in a valuation that the bears can't agree with.
However, there are recent events that could propel Palantir stock even higher over the next year, starting with:
AI platform adoption that's driving commercial growth
Second-quarter revenue from Palantir's U.S. commercial segment surged 93% to $306 million compared to the same period last year, largely driven by the accelerating enterprise adoption of its AIP. For many investors, this growth rate also signifies Palantir's successful transition from a government-focused contractor to a comprehensive AI business that serves both the government and commercial sectors.
Palantir also crossed a key $1 billion annual run rate in its U.S. commercial segment, which is another milestone that validates the product-market fit in the sector. That said, what's more impressive is that Palantir successfully closed $843 million in U.S. commercial total contract value during the quarter, which reflects 222% growth from the same period last year.
The total contract value (TCV) is the full potential lifetime value of agreements that were signed during a specific period, which also makes it a forward-looking indicator of the subsequent quarterly revenue. The significant growth in Palantir's TCV also indicates that enterprises are betting on Palantir's platform over the next several years.
The significant total addressable market (TAM) opportunity ahead is what makes AIP more compelling. In 2024, the global enterprise AI market was valued at around $24 billion, and it was projected to reach $155 billion in 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38%. These growth rates are expected to be driven by the increasing demand for automation and operational efficiency within enterprises.
Palantir's AIP allows these businesses to deploy AI agents trained with their own operational data to help compress decision timelines or significantly increase productivity -- depending on the deployment. This resonates well with enterprises in the U.S., where the pressure to utilize AI as a competitive advantage is growing, because many smaller businesses don't have the means to develop and train an AI model that can address their unique operational struggles.
Considering that enterprise AI adoption is still in the early stages, Palantir is very likely to report better figures should this adoption pace increase, and PLTR stock will likely move in the same direction.
Investment outlook
Palantir's U.S. Commercial revenue is growing at a clip exceeding 90% year over year, and the broader market is expected to grow nearly 38% through 2030. With Palantir's established platform and expanding customer base, it's inevitable for the company to capture a notable portion of this growth as the demand for AI enterprise increases.
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Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Cathie Wood Can't Stop Buying PLTR Stock. Should You Invest While It's Still Below $200?

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.04%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.68%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.89%.
Stock indexes are trading higher after today’s slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report arguably gave the Fed more latitude to cut interest rates. The Sep CPI report of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y. Also, the Sep core CPI report of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
While the markets reacted favorably to today’s CPI report, the Sep CPI report of +3.0% y/y rose to match the current 16-month high, and the core CPI report of +3.0% y/y was still far above the Fed’s inflation target of +2.0%.
Stocks also saw support from today’s Oct S&P US manufacturing PMI report of +0.2 to 52.2, which was stronger than expectations of unchanged at 52.0. Also, the Oct S&P US services PMI report of +1.0 to 55.2, was stronger than expectations for a -0.7 point decline to 53.5.
On the negative side, today’s final-Oct University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell -1.4 points to 53.6, which was weaker than market expectations of a -0.5 point drop to 54.5.
Stocks were undercut when President Trump late Thursday announced he had terminated trade negotiations with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario that apparently hit a nerve with Mr. Trump. The ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers.
Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal because those courts said the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority. If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump’s power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.
The markets are focused on US-China trade talks, as President Trump reiterated his threat on Monday to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including the last four weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
This week, markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Positive corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
Overseas stock markets on Friday are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.26%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.71%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.35%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -1.2 bp at 3.989%. T-notes rebounded from early losses on the slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report. Also, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today is down -2.4 bp at 2.279%.
T-notes have ongoing support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.
The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
European government bond yields are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.5 bp at 2.618%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.4 bp at 4.420%.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks today are all trading higher, except for a -1.5% decline in Tesla (TSLA). Notable gainers include a +2.4% gain in Alphabet (GOOG), and gains of more than 1% in Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN).
Crypto stocks are seeing support today with Bitcoin up +1.2% and Ethereum up +3.2%. Also, Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +5% on an upgrade from JPMorgan to overweight from neutral due to some risk abatement and increasing monetization opportunities. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +3%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +2%.
Ford (F) is up more than +8% after beating analyst earnings expectations and expressing optimism about a bounce-back from a disruptive fire at a major supplier.
Newmont (NEM) is down more than -7% after the company said that gold production in 2026 may be no higher than 2025.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is down more than -13% after reporting disappointing 2026 net sales.
Earnings Reports(10/24/2025)
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Gentex Corp (GNTX), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Coinbase Global, Inc.

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