BigBear.ai, Inc.

Средний индекс, значительно вырос. Быки укрепили уверенность в своих позициях.

Medium index, significantly up. Bulls have strengthened their confidence in their positions.

Сильный индекс, незначительно вырос. Рынок не поддерживает быков.

Strong index, slightly up. The market does not support the bulls.

Сильный индекс, без изменений. Отток средств из лонгов на высоком уровне.

Strong index, flat. Outflow of funds from longs at a high level.

Key Points
BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence software for government and defense agencies but faces declining revenue.
IonQ is scaling its trapped-ion quantum computing hardware with significant triple-digit revenue growth.
Which speculative technology stock is the better choice for your growth portfolio in 2026?
Choosing between a software-driven artificial intelligence company and a quantum computing pioneer requires weighing utility against technical potential. Investors have this choice in BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) and IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) when searching for high-growth tech opportunities.
BigBear.ai provides specialized artificial intelligence solutions for supply chains and defense, while IonQ builds the hardware necessary for a quantum computing future. Both companies are in early stages of development, offering investors exposure to different corners of the emerging technology landscape through distinct business models.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai offers decision intelligence solutions tailored for complex environments like supply chains, autonomous systems, and security at airports through its biometrics solutions. The company generates more than 50% of its revenue from a few key customers, including major contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and federal intelligence agencies. Note that customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, as revenue depends heavily on government budget cycles.
In its 2025 fiscal year (FY), revenue reached $127.7 million, indicating a decline of 19.3% compared to the previous year. The company reported a net loss of $293.9 million during this period, which was a slight narrowing from the $295.5 million net loss seen in FY 2024. While the software model allows for potential scalability, the recent downward trend in revenue suggests the business is facing challenges in expanding its commercial and government footprint.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, BigBear.ai has a debt-to-equity ratio of zero, signifying it carries no significant debt relative to its shareholder equity. The current ratio is 1.8x, which measures a company's ability to cover its short-term debts with short-term assets. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was negative $46.3 million, calculated as cash from operations minus capital expenditures, reflecting the actual cash consumed by the business to maintain operations.
The case for IonQ
IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computing systems, positioning itself as a full-stack company that offers both hardware and quantum-computing-as-a-service. It reaches customers through direct sales and major cloud platforms, including those operated by Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). To strengthen its manufacturing capabilities, IonQ recently completed the $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology, which provides access to a secure quantum foundry.
In FY 2025, revenue reached $130.0 million, representing massive growth of 201.9% over the prior year. Despite this rapid top-line expansion, the company reported a net loss of $510.4 million, which widened from a net loss of $331.6 million in FY 2024. This reflects the high research and development costs required to advance quantum hardware, the capital-intensive nature of building a new computing infrastructure, and the expenses tied to its many acquisitions.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is zero, indicating the company relies on equity rather than debt for its funding. The current ratio is a very high 15.5x, suggesting a massive liquidity buffer to fund ongoing operations and research efforts. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was negative $299.6 million, as the company continues to invest heavily in its technology and the integration of SkyWater Technology.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces significant risks related to its revenue concentration and government dependence, as changes in fiscal policy or contract terminations could harm its financial results. The company is also navigating a class action lawsuit following disclosed accounting errors that required the restatement of multiple years of financial statements. Furthermore, the market for AI and biometrics software is highly competitive, and failure to differentiate its software from larger competitors could impact future revenue growth.
IonQ is an early stage company with an accumulated deficit of $1.19 billion and has not yet produced a scalable, fault-tolerant quantum computer. Significant technological barriers remain regarding error correction and achieving "quantum advantage" over traditional computers. The company also relies heavily on third-party cloud providers that are also its direct competitors in the quantum space, including Amazon and Microsoft, which may prioritize their own internal quantum projects.
Valuation comparison
IonQ carries a much higher price tag relative to its revenue, while BigBear.ai trades at a lower multiple amid declining sales and ongoing financial restatements.
Metric
BigBear.ai
IonQ
Forward P/E
n/a
n/a
P/S ratio
9.8x
51.0x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
The P/S ratio compares a company's market value to its total revenue, which is a useful metric for evaluating high-growth tech firms that are not yet profitable. Neither company has a Forward P/E because future earnings estimates from analysts do not currently project net income for either business in the near term.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
Both BigBear.ai and IonQ are tech stocks building new technological solutions. That's why neither operate a profitable business as they work to acquire customers and scale operations. Given the massive tailwind of artificial intelligence, BigBear.ai would seem the obvious investment choice, but between these two, I have chosen to buy IonQ stock.
While BigBear.ai experienced a year-over-year revenue decline in 2025, its sales are bouncing back in 2026. Its second-quarter revenue grew 13% year over year to $36.7 million. That's because it acquired Ask Sage, an AI platform built for government agencies. Given how hot the AI sector is right now, BigBear.ai's tepid revenue does not instill confidence that its offerings are gaining traction with customers.
IonQ's revenue is rising fast, indicating the success its business is already having with nascent quantum computing tech. The company recently released its Superion product, a further improvement over its existing solutions. It also raised its 2026 full-year outlook on Sept. 8, forecasting revenue to be between $450 million and $460 million. That's a massive increase from the $130 million made in 2025, thanks to its acquisition of SkyWater Technology. Given IonQ’s rapid business expansion, it’s the better stock to buy.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $417,413!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,341,294!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 950% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 13, 2026.
Robert Izquierdo has positions in Amazon, IonQ, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, IonQ, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

BigBear.ai vs. IonQ: Weighing Whether to Invest in the Artificial Intelligence Company or the Quantum Computing Giant

Key Points
BigBear.ai provides critical decision intelligence and AI solutions primarily for the United States defense and intelligence communities.
D-Wave Quantum is a first-mover in the commercial quantum computing space, offering hardware and cloud access to global enterprise clients.
Which high-growth technology stock offers the most compelling risk-reward profile for your portfolio in 2026?
Investors searching for high-growth potential often look toward the frontiers of computation. Comparing BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) and D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) requires weighing established government contracts against the nascent potential of quantum computing.
BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence software for federal agencies, while D-Wave Quantum builds the hardware and cloud platforms for next-generation quantum processing. Both companies represent speculative plays in the tech sector, though they operate at different ends of the computational spectrum. This comparison explores which firm offers a more sustainable path forward.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai provides artificial intelligence solutions to the defense and intelligence sectors, specializing in decision intelligence for government agencies. In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, the company noted that the U.S. government accounted for nearly 51% of total revenue. This high level of customer concentration adds significant risk to the business model since it relies on specific federal funding cycles.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $127.7 million, representing a decline of approximately 19.3% compared to the previous year. The company reported a net loss of roughly $293.9 million for the same fiscal period. This resulted in a net margin of nearly -230.2%, indicating that operating expenses far exceeded total sales during the year as the company adjusted its contract mix.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was nearly 0.0x, indicating the firm carries negligible debt relative to shareholder equity. The current ratio, which measures the ability to pay short-term obligations using current assets, was roughly 1.8x. Free cash flow, or cash from operations minus capital spending, was nearly negative $46.3 million, and the firm maintains its position among cheap tech stocks while adhering to cybersecurity standards.
The case for D-Wave Quantum
D-Wave Quantum is a pioneer in quantum computing, offering systems and cloud services to commercial and government clients. Its Leap platform allows businesses to access quantum processing power for logistics, drug discovery, and financial modeling through a cloud-based interface. The company works with high-profile organizations such as Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), and Siemens Healthineers (OTC:SEMHF) to build its ecosystem.
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $24.6 million, which is a significant increase of nearly 178.5% year over year. Despite this rapid growth, the company reported a net loss of roughly $355.1 million. This led to a net margin of approximately -1,444.1%, highlighting the high costs associated with scaling a commercial quantum provider and developing proprietary hardware.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio was nearly 42.4x, suggesting a very high level of short-term liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 0.1x, meaning total debt is low compared to shareholder equity. Free cash flow for the period was nearly negative $75.8 million, and maintaining listing standards remains a priority as the firm navigates its early stage growth phase.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces intense competition from large enterprise software firms and major defense contractors. Revenue concentration is a major risk, as business depends on a few government customers, and the firm must also navigate technology acceptance in the biometrics market. The company is also dealing with accounting errors and a class action lawsuit that requires restating multiple years of financial statements.
D-Wave Quantum operates in a highly volatile industry where the market for quantum computing may not develop as expected. The company has a history of net losses and must continue raising capital to fund research while integrating its acquired Quantum Circuits business. It also faces competition from tech giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), while advancements in classical computing could disrupt its growth trajectory.
Valuation comparison
BigBear.ai offers a significantly lower P/S ratio, comparing price to revenue, though neither firm has a positive Forward P/E based on earnings estimates.
Metric
BigBear.ai
D-Wave Quantum
Forward P/E
n/a
n/a
P/S ratio
10.5x
503.6x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
I'd go with BigBear.ai. Both companies are early stage and unprofitable, but BigBear has something D-Wave is still working toward: a credible and growing commercial revenue stream backed by government contracts that competitors find difficult to displace.
D-Wave is doing fascinating work in quantum computing, and its bookings surged dramatically in the most recent quarter. But revenue fell sharply at the same time, and the gap between bookings momentum and actual recognized revenue is a risk that investors need to understand before buying in. Quantum computing's commercial moment is approaching, but it has not fully arrived yet.
BigBear.ai, by contrast, is winning classified national security contracts, growing its backlog, and improving gross margins at a pace that suggests the business model is starting to scale. The path to profitability is still long, but the direction is encouraging.
For a long-term investor comfortable with early stage risk, BigBear offers a clearer line of sight to sustainable revenue than D-Wave does right now.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $417,413!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,341,294!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 950% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 12, 2026.
Sara Appino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Mastercard, Microsoft, and Pfizer. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

BigBear.ai vs. D-Wave Quantum: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Key Points
BigBear.ai offers mission-ready AI and decision intelligence solutions for complex government and defense logistics.
Cerebras Systems provides wafer-scale processors designed for high-performance AI training and inference.
Which AI play fits your risk tolerance better in 2026?
As artificial intelligence moves from hype to hardware and software deployment, investors must decide where to allocate capital. Should you bet on BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) or Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS)?
BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence for government and commercial logistics, while Cerebras Systems builds massive wafer-scale processors for enterprise-level model training. Both companies operate in high-growth niches of the AI market. Still, they represent vastly different business models and risk profiles for investors seeking exposure to the next phase of computing.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai sells mission-ready AI and decision intelligence solutions for logistics, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. It serves the U.S. defense and intelligence community, as well as commercial clients in manufacturing, distribution, and healthcare. In its 2025 annual report, the company noted that customers contributing over 10% of revenue accounted for nearly 51% of total revenue. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business.
In 2025, revenue reached nearly $128 million, down from $158 million in the prior year. The company reported a net loss of $294 million for the fiscal year, resulting in a net margin of -230 %. Net margin measures how much profit a company makes per dollar of revenue, and a negative figure indicates that spending exceeded earnings.
As of its June 2026 balance sheet, the current ratio was close to 5.7x, which indicates the ability to cover short-term debts with current assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.0x, indicating the company has no debt relative to shareholders' equity.
Free cash flow for the period was a negative $73 million, representing the cash remaining after paying for operations and capital expenditures.
The case for Cerebras Systems
Cerebras Systems designs massive AI compute systems and chips, such as the CS-3, designed to handle intensive training and inference workloads. It serves high-performance computing customers across North America, Asia, and Europe, competing among specialized semiconductor stocks. The company provides hardware to diverse sectors, including healthcare and energy, while maintaining relationships with several national research laboratories.
In 2025, revenue reached nearly $510 million, representing 76% growth over the previous year. The company reported net income of $238 million for the period. This resulted in a net margin of close to 47%, the percentage of revenue retained as profit after all costs are paid.
As of its June 2026 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 5.8x, indicating a healthy cushion to meet short-term financial obligations. The debt-to-equity ratio was roughly 0.1x, indicating that total liabilities exceed shareholders' equity.
Free cash flow for the trailing-12-month period as of Q2 2026 was a negative $680 million, which represents the cash remaining from operations after accounting for capital expenditures.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces significant risks, including a material class action lawsuit related to disclosed accounting errors and delays in regulatory filings. Its revenue concentration is high, and government contracts can be terminated unilaterally by the customer. The company has a history of net losses and recently reported significant non-cash impairment charges on its assets.
Cerebras Systems operates in a highly competitive market against other semiconductor companies. Maintaining technological leadership in the chip industry requires immense capital and continuous innovation to avoid becoming obsolete. The company must also manage the complexities of scaling its hardware production to meet global demand from enterprise and government clients.
Valuation comparison
Cerebras Systems carries a significantly higher P/S ratio than its peer, while BigBear.ai lacks a Forward P/E ratio due to its recent net losses.
Metric
BigBear.ai
Cerebras Systems
Forward P/E
n/a
148.1x
P/S ratio
11.2x
81.6x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
I would invest in Cerebras Systems over BigBear.ai. Cerebras is demonstrating much stronger and more consistent growth for its technology, indicating a larger addressable market. BigBear is promising but has struggled to achieve steady, meaningful revenue growth that would justify a long-term investment in the stock.
Cerebras has continued to grow at high rates in 2026, with second-quarter revenue up 74% year over year. This indicates significant upside potential for growing sales of its inference services. Management expects core revenue to more than triple in 2027, with continued growth in the coming years.
Meanwhile, BigBear's revenue grew 13% year over year in Q2, and the backlog grew 9%. The company signed 20 new contracts last quarter. Increasing defense spending on drones and other systems is a catalyst for the company's long-term growth. But the company's inconsistent quarterly revenue in recent years makes this more of a speculative play compared with the consistent growth Cerebras is seeing.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $410,024!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,372,815!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 950% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 11, 2026.
John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

BigBear.ai vs. Cerebras Systems: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Key Points
BigBear.ai maintains a deep focus on decision intelligence for the U.S. defense and intelligence sectors.
Innodata is experiencing rapid growth by providing essential data engineering services for generative AI models.
Which artificial intelligence service provider is the better addition to your portfolio for 2026?
As artificial intelligence shifts from hype to practical application, investors are weighing specialized service providers. Should you prioritize BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) or Innodata (NASDAQ:INOD) for your portfolio this year?
BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence for government and defense, while Innodata provides the data engineering essential for training massive generative AI models. They represent two distinct ways to play the ongoing digital transformation, making them popular choices for investors looking beyond the largest cloud providers and chipmakers.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai provides decision-intelligence solutions that combine artificial intelligence with domain expertise to help organizations manage complex logistics and cybersecurity. Its primary markets include global supply chains and autonomous systems, primarily serving customers in the U.S. public and government sectors. In its latest annual report, filed for the year ending 2025, the company noted that a single customer accounted for 51% of consolidated revenues. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $127.7 million, representing a decline of approximately 19.3% compared to the previous year. The company reported a net loss of roughly $293.9 million for the period, which is a significant figure relative to its total sales. This loss contributed to a negative net margin of 230.2%, which is the percentage of revenue remaining after all expenses are deducted. Losses have remained elevated over the last two years as revenue has fluctuated.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 1.8x. This metric measures the ability of a company to pay off its short-term liabilities with assets expected to be converted into cash within twelve months. Free cash flow, which is cash from operations minus capital expenditures, was negative $46.3 million. Free cash flow represents the cash a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations.
The case for Innodata
Innodata operates as a global data engineering firm that focuses on the training of advanced artificial intelligence systems. It works with major technology companies and AI research labs to evaluate and deploy generative AI models, many of which are prominent tech stocks. In its latest annual report, filed for the fiscal year ended 2025, one specific customer in its Digital Data Solutions segment accounted for close to 58% of total revenues. Such heavy reliance on a single client presents a significant concentration risk for the company.
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $251.7 million, which marked an increase of nearly 47.6% over the prior year. The company achieved a net income of roughly $32.2 million during this period, rebounding from losses in earlier fiscal years. This resulted in a net margin of 12.8%, showing that the company was able to turn a profit from its rapid sales growth.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the company maintained a current ratio of roughly 2.7x and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x, which measures total debt against shareholder equity. Free cash flow for the period was approximately $35.6 million. Note that stock-based compensation represented roughly 23.8% of operating cash flow, which inflates reported cash generation since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement. The current ratio suggests a healthy ability to meet near-term obligations using its current assets.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces substantial risks from revenue concentration within the public sector, making it vulnerable to government budget cycles. The company is involved in a material class action lawsuit related to accounting errors and recent financial restatements. It also deals with intense competition from larger defense contractors and relies on third-party infrastructure providers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) or Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Innodata contends with extreme revenue concentration, as one customer represents a majority of its top-line sales and outstanding receivables. It is defending itself against a class action lawsuit alleging misleading statements about its technology and services. Global operations in regions like India and the Philippines expose it to geopolitical instability and competition from Accenture (NYSE:ACN) or Infosys (NYSE:INFY).
Valuation comparison
Innodata appears to offer a more compelling value proposition based on its positive earnings and lower P/S ratio compared to the declining revenue and losses at BigBear.ai.
Metric
BigBear.ai
Innodata
Forward P/E
N/A
46.1x
P/S ratio
11.2x
7.1x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
I'd go with Innodata, though BigBear.ai makes this a pretty interesting call. BigBear is carving out a defensible niche in AI-powered national security software, winning classified government contracts that competitors find difficult to displace. Gross margins are improving and the backlog is growing. For investors comfortable with early stage risk, this company is worth watching.
But Innodata is putting up numbers that keep surprising analysts to the upside. It just posted its 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth, coming in well above estimates. Profitability nearly doubled year over year, and the company added one of the fastest-scaling frontier AI labs as a new customer. The company's biggest risk has always been its dependence on a small number of customers, and that is starting to change. The largest customer now makes up a noticeably smaller share of revenue than it did just one quarter ago.
A CEO transition announced this quarter adds a layer of uncertainty, and the stock trades at a premium valuation that assumes everything keeps going right. But the execution so far has earned that premium. For a long-term investor, Innodata's growth trajectory and improving business quality make it the stronger pick right now.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $410,024!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,372,815!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 950% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 10, 2026.
Sara Appino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Accenture Plc, Amazon, Innodata, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $260 calls on Accenture Plc and short January 2028 $280 calls on Accenture Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

BigBear.ai vs. Innodata: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Key Points
BigBear.ai posted double-digit growth last quarter.
Its growth, however, hasn't been consistent.
The company continues to incur losses, raising concerns about whether it has a path to profitability.
Shares of tech company BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) have been nosediving this year. As of the end of last week, they were trading below $3 per share, representing a year-to-date decline of 46%. The data analytics company, which has been seen by some as the next potential Palantir Technologies, has been anything but a top growth stock to own.
While there may still be hope that the company turns things around in the future, there is also, undoubtedly, plenty of risk with investing in the business today. Has BigBear.ai stock become so cheap that it's finally worth buying, despite its risks? Let's take a closer look.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
Why has BigBear.ai stock been struggling so badly?
Although BigBear.ai has close relationships with the government and there can sometimes appear to be similarities with Palantir, there are also considerable differences. Its growth, for instance, has been choppy. While revenue has been rising, there have been periods of decline. Its growth rate has often been underwhelming, for a growth stock, anyway. During its most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, its revenue was up a modest 13%, totaling $36.7 million. A year earlier, in the same period, however, its revenue had declined by more than 18%.
Meanwhile, the company has continued to post small gross margins and incur losses. BigBear.ai's lack of consistent growth and inability to stay out of the red have given investors plenty of reasons to be cautious with the tech stock, as it hasn't proven to be a sure thing.
However, investors may still be considering the stock given its low valuation, because amid such a decline, it may be tempting to buy the badly beaten-down stock, believing that it may not end up going much lower. But is that really the case?
Why I wouldn't gamble on BigBear.ai stock
At $1.4 billion in market cap, BigBear.ai isn't the largest artificial intelligence stock to own by any stretch. It's fairly small, especially given the opportunities it possesses. There is, however, also plenty of competition in the space and other companies, including Palantir, which could end up taking business from BigBear.ai.
Without a strong competitive advantage or even a compelling catalyst to convince investors that the business is on the right track, there's little reason to expect things to get any better for BigBear.ai in the near term or even the long run. Its troubling financials and lack of strong growth make it a risky investment; it's a stock I'd steer clear of as it can still go far lower.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,997!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,413,876!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 213% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Down Nearly 50% in 2026, Is BigBear.ai Stock Cheap Enough to Finally Buy?

Key Points
BigBear.ai's stock fell below $3/share on Tuesday.
It has to maintain a share price of above $1/share to maintain its NYSE listing.
A reverse split would up the stock price, but would have other negative effects for the company.
When AI-enhanced security company BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) reported earnings at the end of July, investors seemed pleased. Shares rose 18% over the next two weeks.
But unfortunately for BigBear.ai investors, it didn't last. Since then, the company's stock price has tumbled 11.8%. On Tuesday, they plunged below the $3/share milestone. Further declines could be coming.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Is BigBear.ai's stock now in danger of having to perform a reverse split? Here's what investors should know.
BigBear.ai's earnings weren't great
Enthusiastic investors eagerly bid up BigBear.ai's share price after the company's Q2 earnings report on July 30. That report featured some wins, but left a lot of issues unresolved.
Quarterly revenue of $36.7 million was up 13% year-over-year (YOY), and gross margins also improved from 25% to 32.8% on a YOY basis. That means BigBear.ai is not only making more money, but sending more of the money it makes to the bottom line.
The company also managed to cut its net losses significantly, from $228.6 million in the prior-year quarter to just $25.7 million this year.
BigBear.ai CEO Kevin McAleenan also reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance and touted more than 20 new contracts as a basis for optimism.
The problem for the AI company is that it burned $68.6 million in cash during the quarter, its share count keeps increasing, and while Q2 and trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue were up from 2025, both are still down from 2024, 2023, and 2022.
In spite of that, a reverse split seems unlikely. Here's why.
Why BigBear.ai stock probably won't reverse split
Although the stock now trades for less than $3/share, the threshold for maintaining its listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is just $1/share, and BigBear.ai shares are still well above that level.
BigBear.ai's share price has briefly dropped below $3/share twice since 2025 without a reverse split: in July, it hit $2.59/share before rebounding, and in April 2025, it dropped to $2.39/share before soaring to $9.78/share later that year. Management is likely hoping for another such turnaround.
Speaking of management, because reverse splits are often used by troubled companies to maintain their listing on an exchange, company leaders usually try to avoid them. If BigBear.ai announced a reverse split, it might signal that management was worried about shares dropping below the $1 threshold. That could quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy as nervous investors fled the stock.
Unless BigBear.ai's share price drops below $2/share, investors probably don't have to worry about a reverse split. But this is still a stock that shareholders should keep an eye on. Its price is already volatile, and a single canceled contract or unfavorable news report could have an outsize impact.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,997!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,413,876!*
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*Stock Advisor returns as of September 6, 2026.
John Bromels has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Uh Oh! BigBear.ai's Stock Dropped Below $3. Does That Mean a Reverse Split Is Imminent?

Key Points
BigBear.ai provides decision-intelligence software used by national security and supply chain organizations to navigate complex data environments.
CoreWeave operates as a specialized cloud provider designed to scale and accelerate the development of generative AI models.
Which of these high-growth companies is the better fit for your portfolio in 2026?
As artificial intelligence shifts from experimentation to execution, BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) offer two different ways to play the trend. Choosing the right one requires weighing software expertise against infrastructure scale.
BigBear.ai focuses on decision-intelligence software used by government and industrial clients to navigate complex data. CoreWeave provides the heavy-duty computing power needed for massive AI models. While both companies operate in the same broader ecosystem, their business models and financial profiles diverge significantly for investors looking toward the future.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai provides decision-intelligence software used by national security and supply chain organizations to navigate complex data environments. In its latest annual report, filed for the year ended December 31, 2025, the company highlighted its role within the broader landscape of tech stocks. However, it generates 51% of its revenue from just a few customers, and this concentration adds a layer of risk to the business.
Financial performance in 2025 showed significant pressure as revenue reached $127.7 million, a decline of 19.3% from the prior year. The company reported a net loss of $293.9 million, resulting in a net margin of negative 230.2%. This net margin indicates how much each dollar of sales is lost after accounting for all operating and non-operating expenses.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the company maintains a current ratio of 1.8x, which measures its ability to cover short-term liabilities with current assets. The debt-to-equity ratio, which compares total debt to shareholder equity, is zero. Free cash flow, representing the cash remaining after the company pays for its operations and capital equipment, for the 2025 fiscal year (FY) was negative $46.3 million.
The case for CoreWeave
CoreWeave operates as a specialized cloud provider designed to scale and accelerate the development of generative AI models. For the year ended December 31, 2025, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) accounted for approximately 67% of total revenue. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, though the company has recently signed long-term service agreements with other major technology firms.
The company experienced massive growth in FY 2025, with revenue reaching $5.1 billion, representing a jump of 167.9% year over year. Despite the surging top line, the company reported a net loss of $1.2 billion for the period. Its net margin was negative 22.7%, reflecting the high costs of rapidly expanding its global data center footprint.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is 8.9x and the current ratio is 0.5x. Free cash flow was negative $7.3 billion. Note that stock-based compensation. (SBC) represented 20.6% of operating cash flow, which inflates reported cash generation since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces significant risks involving revenue concentration with a limited number of government and commercial customers. The company is currently managing ongoing litigation related to past accounting errors and financial restatements. It also faces the potential for future impairment of goodwill and intangible assets following recent non-cash charges.
CoreWeave is highly dependent on Microsoft for the majority of its revenue, creating substantial concentration risk. The company also faces heavy capital expenditure requirements and high levels of indebtedness as it scales its operations. Furthermore, it is defending a federal securities class action lawsuit alleging it overstated its ability to scale and downplayed supply chain delays.
Valuation comparison
CoreWeave trades at a lower P/S ratio than its peer. Neither have a Forward P/E since they are not expected to be profitable any time soon.
Metric
BigBear.ai
CoreWeave
Forward P/E
n/a
n/a
P/S ratio
10.0x
5.6x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
BigBear.ai and CoreWeave offer different ways to gain exposure to the hot AI market, with the former focused primarily on government contracts while the latter is scooping up market demand for AI infrastructure. Of the two, I would invest in CoreWeave.
The reason is straightforward. AI adoption is a growing necessity for businesses and governments. AI requires massive computing power, and CoreWeave provides this. As proof of its success capturing this market, look at the company's sales, which are accelerating. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached $2.6 billion, representing incredible 112% year-over-year growth. It forecasted full-year sales to hit at least $12.4 billion, more than double the $5.1 billion achieved in 2025.
CoreWeave is a risky bet, however. As last year's debt-to-equity ratio of 8.9x indicates, it holds a lot of debt to fund its AI infrastructure expansion, and it's adding more in 2026. With uncertainty around interest rates, this is a dangerous position to be in if it does not continue to grow revenue.
BigBear.ai does not have the debt burden of CoreWeave, but its software solutions also don't have the built-in economic moat of AI infrastructure, which is too expensive to easily spin up. Moreover, BigBear.ai delivered 13% year-over-year growth to $36.7 million in Q2, but only thanks to the acquisition of Ask Sage. Also, its share price valuation is almost double CoreWeave's. These downsides add to the reason why CoreWeave is the better AI stock.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $445,833!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,402,153!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 993% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 214% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 4, 2026.
Robert Izquierdo has positions in CoreWeave and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

BigBear.ai vs. CoreWeave: Evaluating the Better Artificial Intelligence Stock to Buy for 2026

Key Points
During roughly 74% of days in 2026 when the tech sector broadly declined, quantum computing stocks fell harder than Nasdaq-100.
IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum are trading at extremely high forward sales multiples.
The companies' strong cash balances reduce their near-term financing risks, but they do not protect these stocks from further valuation compression.
Historically, September has been on average the worst month of the year for stocks, with the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) declining by an average of 1.16% in September from 1926 through 2024. But historical trends do not mean that stocks will necessarily fall in September 2026.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
However, several events could make markets volatile, including the August jobs report coming out on Sept. 4 and the U.S. Federal Reserve's next meeting on Sept. 15 and 16. High inflation, massive and rising government debt, and elevated geopolitical tensions have also increased uncertainty in the stock market. If any of these factors help trigger another sell-off in speculative technology stocks, quantum computing stocks could be among the hardest hit.
When tech stocks sell off, quantum computing stocks sell off harder
A review of daily stock price data shows that through Aug. 28, there were 23 trading days in 2026 when the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) fell at least 1.5%. QQQ, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100, declined by an average of about 2% on those days.
However, the median return for IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), and Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) was worse than the QQQ on 17 of those 23 trading days -- about 74% of the time.
In short, quantum computing stocks have tended to decline more sharply than the tech sector during broader technology sell-offs in 2026.
Quantum computing investors are paying heavily for future growth
The biggest risk for quantum computing stocks is their high valuations, even compared to other types of risky technology stocks. Software companies such as C3.ai (NYSE: AI) and BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) are also losing money and depend on future growth, but they trade at 6.9 times and 10.1 times forward sales, respectively.
IonQ has stronger commercial traction than most pure-play quantum computing companies. Its revenue jumped 287% year over year to $80.1 million in the second quarter. Its remaining performance obligations (RPO), a measure of contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized, rose 297% year over year to $485 million. Management now expects revenues for 2026 in the range of $280 million to $290 million, up from the previous guidance range of $260 million to $270 million.
Despite this solid performance, IonQ is trading at nearly 52 times forward sales. Hence, the stock is already pricing in significant anticipated future growth, leaving less of a cushion if it has execution problems, or if investors become more cautious about speculative technology stocks.
Rigetti Computing's valuation looks even more demanding. It trades at more than 223 times forward sales. Rigetti Computing generated only $5.1 million in revenue in the second quarter while posting a $28.1 million operating loss.
D-Wave Quantum trades at nearly 148.8 times forward sales. The company's second-quarter revenue was only $3.1 million. However, there are signs that demand is improving. The company's remaining performance obligations were up 668% year over year to $40.7 million, while bookings in the first half of 2026 rose 1,120% year over year to $35.5 million.
Hence, quantum computing technology need not fail for these stocks to fall. Although the companies may continue to make commercial progress, investors could simply become less willing to pay such high valuations for revenue that's expected much further in the future.
Why the recent sell-off does not remove the risk
Quantum computing stocks have already witnessed a sharp correction. IonQ is down almost 53.7% from its 52-week high, while D-Wave Quantum is down about 63.7%. Rigetti Computing and Quantum Computing Inc. have fallen even more, by roughly 73.2% and 68.5%, respectively, from their 52-week highs (as of Aug. 28).
Many of these companies have strong balance sheets. Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum exited the second quarter with $541.3 million and $546.2 million in cash and marketable investments on their books, respectively. IonQ reported around $3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments at the end of the second quarter, before adjusting for its SkyWater acquisition. These large cash balances reduce the companies' near-term financing risks.
However, that does not mean the stocks cannot fall further. Rigetti Computing can see its valuation compress from more than 200 times forward sales. Similarly, IonQ can continue reporting strong revenue growth while investors become less willing to pay around 52 times forward sales. The recent correction may have reduced their stock prices, but it has not removed their valuation risk. These companies are still heavily dependent on the premise that they will experience a great deal of future commercial growth to justify their current valuations.
The clearest sign that this prediction is not playing out would be if quantum stocks stop underperforming the Nasdaq-100 during broader technology sell-offs. Until then, their performance in 2026 suggests that they remain particularly vulnerable when investors move away from speculative technology stocks.
Should you buy stock in IonQ right now?
Before you buy stock in IonQ, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and IonQ wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $437,097!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,355,077!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 213% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 1, 2026.
Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool recommends C3.ai. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: If a September Sell-Off Hits Speculative AI Stocks, Quantum Computing Falls First

Key Points
BigBear.ai focuses on high-stakes artificial intelligence and predictive analytics for the U.S. intelligence community and defense agencies.
Texas Instruments provides essential analog and embedded semiconductors to over 100,000 customers in industrial and automotive markets.
Which of these technology-focused plays is the better fit for your long-term portfolio in 2026?
Investors often choose between speculative high-growth software and established hardware giants. Today we compare BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) to see which path offers the best opportunity right now.
BigBear.ai provides specialized intelligence software primarily for government defense, while Texas Instruments manufactures the essential chips found in everything from cars to factory robots. As artificial intelligence transitions from a buzzword to an industrial necessity, comparing a high-stakes software provider to a hardware veteran provides valuable insight for any diversified portfolio looking for exposure to modern infrastructure.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai sells AI-driven decision support tools to the U.S. Intelligence Community and Department of Defense. The company recently acquired Pangiam to expand its biometrics capabilities for both government and commercial sectors like manufacturing and healthcare. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, as revenue depends heavily on federal appropriations and fixed-price contracts that can be canceled at any time.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $127.7 million, representing a decline of roughly 19.3% compared to the previous year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $293.9 million for the period, which resulted in a negative net margin of 230.2%. This margin figure measures how much loss is generated for every dollar of sales, reflecting the high costs of scaling a technology start-up.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio sat at a conservative 0.19x, indicating that the company carried very little debt relative to shareholder equity just prior to completely clearing its obligations in early 2026. The current ratio, which measures the company's ability to pay short-term obligations with short-term assets, is roughly 1.8x. Free cash flow, or the cash left after paying for capital projects, was negative $46.3 million during the fiscal year.
The case for Texas Instruments
Texas Instruments produces analog and embedded processors for more than 100,000 global customers. The company focuses on the industrial and automotive markets, which together represent about 66% of its total revenue. By selling directly to customers through its own website, the firm maintains close relationships and captures more value from the semiconductor stocks landscape.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $17.7 billion, which was an increase of approximately 13% over the prior year. Net income for the period was close to $5.0 billion, maintaining a healthy net margin of roughly 28.3%. This indicates it kept nearly 28 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses were paid.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.9x, meaning total debt (combining short-term and long-term obligations) is slightly less than the equity held by shareholders. The current ratio is approximately 4.4x, suggesting a strong ability to cover short-term debts. Free cash flow for the year reached nearly $2.6 billion, providing the company with significant capital for dividends and reinvestment.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces significant revenue concentration, as a few government agencies provide most of its funding. The company is also navigating financial instability, including multi-year restatements of its financial records and ongoing regulatory filing delays. Furthermore, it must defend against a material class action lawsuit while integrating acquisitions in a crowded market.
Texas Instruments is sensitive to the cyclical nature of the chip industry, where demand can drop suddenly if customers adjust inventories. Geopolitical tensions also pose a threat, as the company generates roughly 20% of its revenue from China. Additionally, it must maintain high manufacturing output in its own factories to offset the high fixed costs of its 300mm wafer fabs.
Valuation comparison
Texas Instruments appears more expensive on a P/S ratio basis, but BigBear.ai lacks a Forward P/E due to its current net loss.
Forward P/E
N/A
32.2x
P/S ratio
12.5x
14.1x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
I'd go with Texas Instruments, and it is not a close call. TI just delivered one of its strongest quarters in years, with revenue growing across industrial, data center, and automotive markets simultaneously. Data center revenue doubled year over year, free cash flow surged to levels the company has rarely seen, and management issued above-seasonal guidance for the third quarter. The company also raised prices for the first time in years, which signals confidence in where demand is heading.
BigBear.ai is carving out a defensible niche in AI-powered national security software, and its government contracts are the kind that competitors find difficult to displace. Gross margins are improving, and the backlog is growing. For investors comfortable with early stage risk, the story is worth following.
But BigBear.ai is still unprofitable and generating a fraction of what Texas Instruments produces in free cash flow in a single quarter. TI is a battle-tested compounder with a growing dividend and broad exposure to some of the most durable demand trends in semiconductors. For a long-term investor, that track record is difficult to compete with.
Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now?
Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and BigBear.ai wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,943!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,382,819!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 983% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 216% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
Sara Appino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Texas Instruments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

BigBear.ai vs. Texas Instruments: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Key Points
Adobe maintains a dominant market position in creative software with high net margins and nearly $10 billion in free cash flow.
BigBear.ai is a specialized provider of decision intelligence for defense agencies but currently faces declining revenue and significant net losses.
Which artificial intelligence play is the better fit for your portfolio in 2026?
Choosing between a software giant and a small defense-focused firm depends on your risk appetite. Will you pick the established Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) or the speculative BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) for your portfolio?
Adobe dominates the creative world through its massive software suites, while BigBear.ai focuses on high-stakes analytics for government and logistics sectors. While both occupy the tech stocks landscape, Adobe provides steady profitability whereas BigBear.ai represents a more niche, high-volatility bet on the future of decision intelligence.
The case for Adobe
Adobe sells a wide range of creative and document tools through its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud segments. It serves a diverse user base including creative professionals, students, and global enterprises, recently expanding its reach through the planned acquisition of Topaz Labs to bolster its AI toolset. The company also integrated Semrush to improve its brand visibility services for marketing professionals, ensuring its platform remains essential for digital content creation.
In FY 2025, revenue reached $23.8 billion, representing a 10.5% increase compared to the prior year. The company reported net income of $7.1 billion, resulting in a net margin of 30.0%. This net margin, which measures how much profit a company keeps from every dollar of sales, rose from 25.9% in FY 2024. This growth suggests that the company is effectively managing its costs while expanding its top-line revenue through higher subscription adoption.
As of its November 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio stands at 1.0x, meaning its short-term assets exactly cover its short-term liabilities. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.6x, which is a figure that compares total debt to the total value of shareholder equity. Adobe generated nearly $9.9 billion in free cash flow in FY 2025. Free cash flow is the cash left over after a business pays for its operations and capital expenditures, providing the company with significant capital for buybacks or future acquisitions.
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai provides AI-powered decision support and data analytics primarily for the global supply chain, logistics, and autonomous systems markets. It serves the U.S. intelligence and defense communities with specialized software designed to manage complex data environments. Because its revenue is heavily concentrated within a limited number of public sector contracts, customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, as these contracts can fluctuate based on government budget cycles.
In FY 2025, revenue reached $127.7 million, which was a 19.3% decline from the roughly $158.2 million reported in FY 2024. The company reported a net loss of close to $293.9 million for the year. This resulted in a net margin of -230.2%, indicating that expenses far exceeded total sales during this period. Such a wide gap between revenue and expenses highlights the significant costs associated with the company’s current growth and integration strategy.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, BigBear.ai reported a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x, suggesting it has very little total debt relative to shareholder equity. Its current ratio is 1.8x, which shows the company has more than enough short-term assets to cover its immediate debts. In FY 2025, the company reported negative free cash flow of nearly $46.3 million. Since free cash flow represents the cash available after capital spending, this negative figure means operations and equipment costs consumed more cash than the business actually generated.
Risk profile comparison
Adobe faces significant competitive pressure from rapidly evolving generative AI markets, where new entrants or third-party models may disrupt its core creative tools. The company also deals with regulatory risks, including a $150 million settlement related to consumer subscription cancellation practices and alleged violations of the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act. Additionally, successfully integrating strategic acquisitions like Semrush remains a challenge for maintaining operational efficiency and realizing the anticipated financial benefits of these deals.
BigBear.ai struggles with financial reporting instability, including ongoing restatements of several years of financial statements and delayed regulatory filings. Its heavy reliance on government contracts makes it vulnerable to Amazon or Microsoft in the defense technology space, as these public sector deals are subject to unilateral termination. Furthermore, a class action lawsuit regarding accounting errors and public controversy regarding certain international deals continues to present a legal and reputational risk for the organization.
Valuation comparison
Adobe carries a much lower P/S ratio despite its higher profitability, while BigBear.ai lacks a Forward P/E due to its recent net losses.
Metric
Adobe
BigBear.ai
Forward P/E
10.9x
N/A
P/S ratio
4.4x
12.3x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
I'd go with Adobe. To be fair to BigBear.ai, it is carving out a solid niche in AI-powered national security software. Its contracts are sticky, gross margins are improving, and the company is winning classified government work that competitors find difficult to displace. For investors comfortable with early-stage risk, it is worth watching.
But BigBear.ai is still a small, unprofitable company with a relatively narrow customer base and a long road ahead to prove its model can scale. The stock is volatile, and the path to sustained profitability involves a lot of execution risk.
Adobe, by contrast, is one of the most deeply embedded software franchises in the world. Creative professionals, marketers, and enterprises depend on its tools in ways that make switching feel almost unthinkable. The stock has pulled back sharply from its highs on fears that AI would erode its dominance, but these fears appear increasingly overblown. The company just posted record revenue, raised its full-year outlook, and is building its own AI capabilities at a pace that suggests the platform is evolving rather than fading.
For a long-term investor, owning a proven, cash-generating software giant at a historically attractive entry point is a stronger bet than a speculative defense startup still finding its footing.
Should you buy stock in Adobe right now?
Before you buy stock in Adobe, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Adobe wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $403,337!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,334,946!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 958% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 214% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 12, 2026.
Sara Appino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Adobe, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $330 calls on Adobe and short January 2028 $340 calls on Adobe. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

BigBear.ai, Inc.

Price history and volume

360 Overview

Investment risk — high

Investment potential — low

Bearish sentiment among traders

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