Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity and real estate markets. The firm's private equity investments include traditional buyouts, recapitalization, distressed buyouts and debt investments in real estate, corporate partner buyouts, distressed asset, corporate carve-outs, middle market, growth capital, turnaround, bridge, corporate restructuring, special situation, acquisition, and industry consolidation transactions. The firm provides its services to endowment and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors. It manages client focused portfolios. The firm launches and manages hedge funds for its clients. It also manages real estate funds and private equity funds for its clients. The firm invests in the fixed income and alternative investment markets across the globe. Its fixed income investments include income-oriented senior loans, bonds, collateralized loan obligations, structured credit, opportunistic credit, non-performing loans, distressed debt, mezzanine debt, and value oriented fixed income securities. The firm seeks to invest in chemicals, commodities, consumer and retail, oil and gas, metals, mining, agriculture, commodities, distribution and transportation, financial and business services, manufacturing and industrial, media distribution, cable, entertainment and leisure, telecom, technology, natural resources, energy, packaging and materials, and satellite and wireless industries. It also focuses on clean energy, sustainable industry, climate solutions, energy transition, industrial decarbonization, sustainable mobility, sustainable resource use, and sustainable real estate. It seeks to invest in companies based in across Africa, North America with a focus on United States, and Europe. The firm also makes investments outside North America, primarily in Western Europe and Asia. It employs a combination of contrarian, value, and distressed strategies to make its investments. The firm seeks to make investments in the range of $75 million and $1500 million. The firm seeks to invest in companies with Enterprise value between $750 million to $2500 million. The firm conducts in-house research to create its investment portfolio. It seeks to acquire minority and majority positions in its portfolio companies. Apollo Global Management, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices in North America, Asia, India and Europe.

Apollo Global Management демонстрирует сильные фундаментальные показатели, особенно в отношении рентабельности и роста доходов. P/E, P/S и P/FCF выше медианных значений отрасли, что может указывать на переоцененность. Однако, высокие значения ROE и ROI, а также стабильный рост выручки и чистой прибыли подтверждают привлекательность компании. Долговая нагрузка также на низком уровне, что является позитивным моментом для оценки. Тем не менее, снижение маржи чистой прибыли и отсутствие ликвидности (quick ratio на уровне 0) вызывают вопросы о краткосрочной устойчивости. Дивидендная доходность на уровне 0.43% демонстрирует стабильность выплат, что является положительным фактором для инвесторов. Устойчивый рост активов и собственных средств также говорит о финансовой стабильности компании. В целом, несмотря на некоторые сигналы о переоцененности, фундаментальные показатели указывают на уверенный рост и потенциал компании в будущем.

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (New)

Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is expanding its presence in the fast-growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) market by entering the U.S. ETF servicing business. It has teamed up with Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE and will use ICE ETF Hub as the order-taking platform to support its new U.S. ETF servicing platform for institutional investors.
The move reflects Northern Trust’s efforts to benefit from the rising demand for ETFs among institutional investors. Strong inflows and increasing innovation across both passive and active strategies are driving the growth of the global ETF market. To capitalize on this opportunity, the company is strengthening its operational and technology infrastructure to support its ETF servicing platform.
ICE ETF Hub offers a reliable and scalable technology platform that helps simplify ETF primary market operations. It connects key participants in the ETF ecosystem, including authorized participants, market makers and distributors. By integrating this platform with its own automated ETF servicing system, Northern Trust aims to streamline ETF operations and improve efficiency for institutional investors.
Phil Nanof, Head of ETF Services, Americas at Northern Trust, said, "This proven platform supports critical ETF workflows and provides established connectivity with key market participants. This collaboration is an important step in deploying Northern Trust’s end to end, fully automated ETF servicing solution spanning fund administration, custody, and transfer agency."
Technology Integration Supports NTRS’ ETF Servicing Platform
The collaboration between NTRS and ICE also highlights the growing role of technology, automation and standardization in the ETF ecosystem. The ICE ETF Hub helps automate ETF creation and redemption processes, improving efficiency and connectivity. The platform has processed more than $5 trillion in ETF orders since launch, demonstrating its ability to support large-scale operations. By leveraging this platform, Northern Trust will be able to accelerate the expansion of its ETF servicing capabilities in the United States.
By stepping into the ETF servicing market, Northern Trust aims to strengthen its asset servicing business and broaden its technology-driven offerings for institutional clients. The initiative is expected to deepen client relationships and support long-term revenue growth.
NTRS’s Price Performance & Zacks Rank
NTRS’ shares have gained 1.7% in the past three months against the industry’s fall of 2.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Currently, Northern Trust carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Other Financial Firms Expanding Through Collaborations
In February, Franklin Resources, Inc. BEN and Binance announced the launch of a new off-exchange institutional collateral program, aiming to make digital asset trading safer and more capital-efficient. The launch is based on the strategic partnership between Franklin Resources and Binance announced in September 2025.
The current program enables eligible institutional clients to use tokenized money market fund shares issued through Benji Technology Platform of Franklin as collateral when trading on Binance. Under this plan, the value of the tokenized money market fund shares is mirrored within Binance’s trading system, while the actual assets remain securely held off-exchange in a regulated environment.
In the same month, Apollo Global Management, Inc. APO entered into a strategic partnership with Schroders to develop next-generation wealth and retirement investment solutions for institutional and wealth clients across the United Kingdom and the United States.
The collaboration combines Apollo’s large alternative credit and private investment-grade origination platform with Schroders’ strong active management capabilities in public markets and specialist private markets expertise through Schroders Capital.
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Northern Trust Taps ICE ETF Hub to Enter U.S. ETF Servicing Market

JPMorgan’s JPM decision to mark down some private-credit loans is sharpening a market debate that had already been building: whether the fast-growing asset class is finally being forced into more realistic price discovery.
The latest development concerning private credit markets was first reported by the Financial Times. JPMorgan has reduced the value of certain loans held as collateral by private-credit groups, particularly software-related exposures, and is accordingly limiting how much it will lend against those assets. The move underscores how banks are becoming more cautious about the quality and liquidity of private loans as pressure mounts on sectors seen as vulnerable to artificial-intelligence (AI) disruption and weaker economic conditions.
For years, private credit has attracted investors with promises of stable valuations, steady income and insulation from the volatility of public markets. But recent events are reviving an old concern: valuations in private markets can look smoother largely because assets are not marked continuously. When a major bank like JPMorgan trims collateral values, it suggests that at least some loan books may not be worth what managers had implied only months earlier.
The pressure is already spreading across the alternative-asset spectrum. BlackRock BLK recently limited withdrawals from a flagship private-credit fund after redemptions surged. Blackstone BX announced a rise in its redemption cap from 5% to 7% after facing a jump in investor requests. This highlights how quickly confidence can be tested when investors want cash back at the same time.
Publicly traded firms tied to the theme, including Blue Owl Capital OWL and Apollo Global Management APO, have also been caught in the downdraft. Last month, Blue Owl Capital moved to restrict investor withdrawals from one of its retail-focused funds amid mounting scrutiny of software-heavy loan exposure, while Apollo Global is moving to value some private-credit holdings daily, a sign that transparency has become a competitive issue as skepticism grows. Blackstone and BlackRock, meanwhile, remain in the spotlight because their scale makes them key barometers of investor confidence in the sector.
JPMorgan’s markdowns do not prove private credit is headed for a full-blown crisis. But they do signal that the era of easy assumptions around valuation, liquidity and underwriting may be ending. Hence, the bank’s move is not just a one-off adjustment, but a warning for the whole industry.
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JPMorgan's Markdowns Signal a Reality Check for Private Credit

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO). Shares have lost about 18.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Apollo Global Management due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Apollo Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, AUM Increases Y/Y
Apollo’s fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted net income (ANI) per share of $2.47 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03. Further, the reported figure compared favorably with the year-ago adjusted net income of $2.22.
Results were primarily aided by an increased assets under management balance. However, rising expenses acted as a headwind in the quarter.
The results include certain items. After considering those, net income attributable to Apollo Global (GAAP basis) was $660 million, which declined from $1.46 billion in the prior-year quarter.
For 2025, ANI per share was $8.38, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.94. This compares favorably with $7.43 reported in the prior year. GAAP net income attributable to Apollo Global was $3.39 billion, which declined 24.2% year over year.
Quarterly Revenues & Expenses Rise
Total revenues were $1.2 billion, up 30.3% year over year. Also, it topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.4%.
Full-year revenues were $4.5 billion, which increased 22.3% year over year. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.4 billion.
Total expenses for combined segments rose 25.3% year over year to $218 million in the reported quarter.
Global’s AUM Balance Rises
Fee-earnings AUM increased 24.6% on a year-over-year basis to $709 billion. The rise was driven by strong management fee growth and record capital solutions fees. Asset Management contributed $104 billion in inflows, driven by fundraising across institutional and global wealth channels, as well as $21 billion related to the acquisition of Bridge Investment Holdings, while Retirement Services contributed $83 billion to gross inflows, driven by robust organic growth.
As of Dec. 31, 2025, total AUM was $938 billion, up 24.9% on a year-over-year basis. Total AUM benefited from $145 billion in inflows from
Asset Management and $83 billion in gross inflows from Retirement Services, partially offset by $60 billion in outflows, driven by normal course activity at Athene and $22 billion from realization activity.
Capital & Liquidity Position Weak
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Apollo Global had cash and cash equivalents of $3.3 billion and debt of $5.5 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
Currently, Apollo Global Management has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Apollo Global Management has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Apollo Global Management is part of the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry. Over the past month, MSCI (MSCI), a stock from the same industry, has gained 6.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.
MSCI reported revenues of $822.53 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.6%. EPS of $4.66 for the same period compares with $4.18 a year ago.
MSCI is expected to post earnings of $4.38 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +9.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.3%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for MSCI. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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Apollo Global Management (APO) Down 18.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

As rising concerns about the private credit market, fund outflows and macroeconomic pressures affect alternative asset managers, shares of Blackstone Inc. BX have lost 28.2% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 21.4% decline.
Investor sentiment weakened after the firm’s flagship $82-billion private credit fund (BCRED) saw unusually high redemption requests, with investors withdrawing billions of dollars and redemption levels exceeding typical quarterly limits, raising worries about liquidity and the stability of private credit funds. Earlier this month, Blackstone announced a rise in its redemption cap from 5% to 7%.
Primarily, the withdrawals were triggered by the recent high-profile corporate bankruptcies and credit stress in sectors such as auto suppliers and subprime lenders, which raised concerns about potential loan defaults within private credit portfolios. Also, investors became worried about exposure to software and technology borrowers, which face uncertainty due to artificial intelligence (AI)-led disruption and slowing growth.
Higher bond yields and interest-rate uncertainty have also reduced the attractiveness of leveraged buyouts and real estate investments, two key areas for Blackstone, contributing to the sharp decline in the stock.
The private credit market headwinds have been weighing on other alternative asset managers, such as BlackRock BLK, Apollo Global APO and Blue Owl Capital Inc. OWL as well. Shares of these companies have also faced bearish investor sentiments, with all trading in the red. In the past three months, shares of BlackRock, Apollo Global and Blue Owl Capital have lost 13.1%, 28.1% and 39.1%, respectively.
3-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Last month, Blue Owl Capital moved to restrict investor withdrawals from one of its retail-focused funds. Apollo Global’s CEO, Marc Rowan, warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms as the industry faces concerns about rising defaults on loans to software companies. BlackRock has restricted withdrawals from its private credit fund, HPS Corporate Lending Fund, following a jump in redemption requests.
Against the tough operating backdrop for alternative asset managers, investors must consider whether it is worth holding on to the stock or better to exit. But, before making any investment decision, it is important to examine BX’s fundamentals and growth prospects to assess whether the stock still offers meaningful upside potential.
Blackstone’s Fundamental Strength
Robust Assets Under Management (AUM) Balance: Blackstone has a solid AUM balance. Its total AUM and fee-earning AUM have seen compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 15.6% and 14.4%, respectively, over the last five years (2020-2025). At the end of 2025, the total AUM balance reached a record $1.27 trillion.
Blackstone’s AUM growth has been driven by continued solid capital inflows, the company’s strategic investments in high-growth infrastructure and technology sectors, and a broad fundraising momentum. The company’s investments in secular growth areas like digital infrastructure, AI infrastructure, energy transition and life sciences are major tailwinds.
While Blackstone’s expansion into private wealth channels and insurance platforms has helped in diversifying its revenue sources, new products like perpetual vehicles allow tapping demand from different kinds of investors.
The company’s diversified product base, solid revenue mix and superior position in the alternative investments space are expected to continue supporting AUM growth.
Strong Fundraising Ability: Despite a challenging fundraising environment for asset managers, Blackstone has been raising money. Fundraising for the global private equity and real estate funds resulted in Blackstone’s ‘dry powder’ or the available capital of $198.3 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.
In 2024 and 2025, the company deployed $133.9 billion and $138.2 billion of capital, respectively. With substantial investable capital, Blackstone is well-positioned to take advantage of market dislocations. Accelerating growth in India and Japan offers attractive opportunities, supporting a strategic deployment of capital.
In April 2025, Wellington, Vanguard and Blackstone announced the formation of an alliance to develop simplified multi-asset investment solutions combining public and private markets. Aiming to broaden investor access to institutional-quality portfolios, the collaboration leverages each firm’s strengths to address long-term diversification and return challenges in wealth and asset management.
Blackstone’s Valuation Analysis
On a valuation basis, shares of Blackstone appear to be trading at a premium relative to the industry.
The company’s forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.58 is above the industry average of 9.76.
P/E (F12M) Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Approach Blackstone Stock Now?
A premium valuation compared with the industry makes us apprehensive about the company’s prospects. Tighter credit markets of late, relatively high interest rates, slower deal activity in private equity and real estate, reduced realizations and concerns about exit opportunities are expected to hamper Blackstone’s near-term prospects.
Rather than immediate credit losses, the concerns in the private credit market will continue to weigh on Blackstone for some time now, mainly through investor sentiment, potential redemptions and slower fundraising. Caution among retail and wealth-channel investors toward semi-liquid credit vehicles is likely to lead to continued outflows or slower inflows, which may slightly pressure AUM and fee-related earnings in the near term.
If we look at Blackstone’s estimate revisions, it is clear that analysts are not optimistic regarding the company’s earnings growth prospects. While the company’s earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 reflect year-over-year growth rates of 14% and 26.8%, respectively, estimates for both years have been revised lower over the past 30 days.
Earnings Estimate Revision
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nevertheless, since Blackstone manages assets across private equity, real estate, credit, infrastructure and hedge fund solutions, the diversification enables it to generate multiple revenue streams, including management and performance fees. Being the largest alternative asset manager in the United States, its strong brand and deep relationships with institutional investors are expected to continue to drive fund inflows, supporting growth in AUM and fee-related earnings in the long run.
Thus, while valuation-aware and more conservative investors should stay away from the BX stock at present, those who already own the stock can hold onto it as the company is less likely to disappoint in the long run. Investors should closely monitor how private credit-related risks evolve and assess Blackstone’s strategic response before making fresh investment decisions.
Currently, Blackstone carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Is it Time to Sell Blackstone Stock Amid Rising Private Credit Woes?

For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – March 10, 2026 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Expedia EXPE, Nvidia NVDA, Fair Isaac FICO, Broadcom AVGO, Apollo Global Management APO and Dell Technologies DELL.
Amid Conflict, Numerous Opportunities Arise in Stocks
A combination of geopolitical tension, technological disruption fears, and financial market stress has created one of the most opportunity-rich environments I have seen in some time. The conflict involving Iran, growing concerns about AI potentially disrupting large segments of the software industry, and several high-profile blowups in the private credit space have rattled sentiment across markets. Yet periods like this, when uncertainty dominates headlines, often create some of the most attractive entry points for disciplined investors.
Importantly, the broader macro backdrop remains constructive. Global economic growth continues at a solid pace, productivity gains are beginning to materialize from technological adoption, and enormous capital expenditures tied to the AI infrastructure buildout are flowing through the global economy. These forces collectively provide a powerful foundation for continued economic expansion.
The primary risk to that outlook at the moment is the escalating situation in Iran. Rising tensions in the region have pushed oil prices sharply higher and introduced the possibility of inflationary pressure if the conflict were to persist or intensify. A prolonged disruption to global energy markets could weigh on economic activity and complicate the outlook for policymakers. That said, as I will outline below, I currently assign relatively low odds to a drawn-out conflict and view some form of resolution in the near term as the more likely outcome.
Despite the geopolitical noise, the equity market itself remains remarkably resilient. Major indexes are still trading only a few percentage points below their record highs. At the same time, many of the market’s largest leaders remain well off their peaks. This dynamic reflects a broadening of market participation, an encouraging development that stands in sharp contrast to the persistent warnings over the past year about excessive index concentration. Rather than signaling weakness, the expansion of leadership across sectors is often characteristic of durable bull markets.
In recent pieces I highlighted opportunities in the Magnificent Seven and the software sector, while earlier coverage focused on energy and gold, both of which have performed exceptionally well. I continue to believe those themes remain intact, though after such strong momentum they may begin to consolidate, particularly if capital rotates back into sectors that now appear discounted.
Today I want to focus on several additional opportunities emerging across technology and financials, including Expedia, Nvidia, Fair Isaac, Broadcom, Apollo Global Management and Dell Technologies.
Interestingly, today’s market action may already be reflecting that view. Overnight, Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures were down more than 2%, yet by the open the market had staged a powerful reversal, pointing to the type of sharp, potentially capitulatory price action that often accompanies intermediate-term bottoms.
Why the Iran Conflict May Be Shorter Than Markets Fear
Despite the alarming headlines, several structural factors suggest the Iran conflict may be less likely to evolve into a prolonged regional war than many investors fear. According to my research, Iran has already suffered significant degradation of its military capabilities. Much of its missile-launch infrastructure has reportedly been destroyed, and the country has already used a large portion of its ballistic missile inventory while facing a relatively high failure rate. Just as importantly, the infrastructure needed to produce new missiles was damaged in prior strikes, meaning Iran cannot easily replenish its arsenal. These constraints limit Iran’s ability to sustain a long-duration conflict.
Iran also appears to have miscalculated strategically and diplomatically. By launching missiles at several Gulf states, Tehran inadvertently pushed governments that had previously tried to remain neutral closer to the US and Israel. Rather than destabilizing the region politically, the attacks created a rally-around-the-flag effect among Gulf monarchies and provided them political justification to support defensive and potentially offensive actions. Combined with the weakening of Iran’s proxy networks across the region, this further reduces the likelihood that Iran can maintain a prolonged confrontation.
Perhaps most importantly, the expected endgame appears to point toward a negotiated off-ramp rather than regime change. It seems to me that the US and Israel may spend several weeks degrading Iran’s military infrastructure before reopening diplomatic channels. Notably, President Trump’s public position has remained somewhat vague, particularly around what constitutes “unconditional surrender,” leaving room for a resolution that stops short of toppling the regime. In practice, this could mean Iran accepts new military constraints while the existing government remains in place. While a worst-case scenario cannot be ruled out, assessments suggest the probability of a prolonged regional war remains relatively low.
Something also worth noting is the price action in crude oil futures. Similar to what we are seeing in the Nasdaq and broader equity indexes, oil has experienced a sharp reversal that may signal a form of capitulation. Overnight, WTI crude futures briefly surged to $119.48, but prices have since reversed sharply, falling nearly $25 from those highs. While it is impossible to know whether that spike ultimately marks the peak in oil prices, this type of rapid surge followed by an equally aggressive pullback often occurs near turning points and increases the probability that the market may have already seen the worst of the panic-driven move.
Financial Sector Opportunities: Fair Isaac and Apollo Global Stocks
I have not focused much on the recent drama in the private credit market in my commentary, but it has become a major topic of discussion across the credit and debt industry. Private credit has expanded at an extraordinary pace, growing from roughly $500 billion in assets under management in 2020 to around $2 trillion today, and was virtually nonexistent as an institutional asset class just a decade ago.
Apollo Global Management has emerged as one of the clear leaders in this rapidly expanding market. The boom has been extremely lucrative for firms operating in the space, though the speed of growth has also raised concerns that some lenders may have become overly aggressive with underwriting standards. Blue Owl Capital has been the primary company in the headlines amid these concerns, fueling broader fears of stress within the private credit ecosystem.
Much of the commentary surrounding the issue has drawn comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis, though that characterization appears exaggerated. Leverage levels across the system are considerably lower, and the risks appear far more contained. Nevertheless, the concerns have pressured stocks across the alternative asset management space, including Apollo.
That pullback has created a potentially attractive entry point. Apollo Global Management currently trades at just 11.8x forward earnings, near one of its most compelling valuations in years. At the same time, earnings are projected to grow 14.3% annually over the next three to five years, while revenue is expected to climb in the high teens this year and next. Importantly, Apollo’s business is also highly diversified across asset management, insurance, and private markets, meaning its earnings power extends well beyond private credit alone.
Fair Isaac, meanwhile, has been caught up in a completely different selloff. Rather than credit market concerns, the stock has been pressured by the broader correction in software stocks, as well as lingering controversy surrounding price increases implemented more than a year ago. Despite that noise, the company’s underlying business continues to perform exceptionally well.
Shares currently trade at 35.2x forward earnings, which is not inexpensive on an absolute basis but looks more reasonable relative to the company’s historical valuation. Over the past decade, Fair Isaac has traded at a median multiple of roughly 50x earnings, reflecting the company’s powerful competitive moat and dominant position in credit scoring. That competitive advantage remains firmly intact, and analysts expect earnings to grow nearly 28.6% annually over the long term, suggesting the company’s premium valuation may continue to be justified.
Tech Stock Opportunities Multiply: NVDA, AVGO, EXPE and DELL
Concerns about overvalued technology stocks have dominated market conversations for much of the past year. Yet in many cases, the data no longer supports that narrative. After a period of sharp corrections and consolidations, several major technology companies are now trading at far more reasonable valuations while their underlying businesses continue to grow at impressive rates.
A number of tech leaders now stand out as particularly compelling opportunities, including Nvidia, Broadcom, Dell Technologies, and Expedia.
Nvidia, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), remains the clear leader in AI infrastructure. Despite its dominant position, the stock now trades at roughly 22.7x forward earnings, a modest multiple for a company expected to deliver long-term EPS growth of about 39% annually. Revenue is projected to surge 59% this year and another 27% next year, reflecting continued explosive demand for AI compute. Nvidia has also expanded its reach by investing in numerous AI startups, giving the company exposure across AI ecosystem.
Broadcom offers many of the same structural growth catalysts tied to AI infrastructure and data center expansion. Shares currently trade at around 31.9x forward earnings, while analysts expect earnings to grow roughly 48.6% annually over the next three to five years. Revenue growth is projected to remain exceptionally strong as well, with sales expected to rise 53% this year and 45% next year, remarkable growth for a company of Broadcom’s scale.
Dell Technologies represents a different type of opportunity within the AI trade. The company was an early beneficiary of the surge in demand for AI servers and data center hardware, and the stock has spent the past couple of years consolidating those gains. Today, Dell trades at a very reasonable 11.5x forward earnings, while analysts expect earnings to grow about 18% annually over the next three to five years. With its valuation compressed and demand for AI infrastructure continuing to expand, the stock appears well positioned for a potential breakout to new highs.
Finally, Expedia stands out as a true bargain within the broader technology sector. Shares currently trade at roughly 13x forward earnings, while analysts expect EPS to grow nearly 20% annually over the long term. In addition to its strong portfolio of consumer travel brands, Expedia has been building a rapidly expanding B2B travel platform, which allows partners to access its inventory and booking technology. That segment has become an increasingly important driver of growth having grown 24% in the past year.
Finding Opportunity in Uncertain Markets
Periods of uncertainty often create the most compelling investment opportunities. While geopolitical tensions and sector-specific fears have unsettled markets in the short term, the broader economic backdrop remains constructive and many high-quality companies are now trading at far more attractive valuations than they were just a year ago.
For disciplined investors willing to look through the current noise, opportunities are emerging across several sectors. If the macro environment remains stable and current fears begin to fade, these names could be well positioned to participate in the next leg of the bull market.
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Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is Here
The AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.
See
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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Expedia, Nvidia, Fair Isaac, Broadcom, Apollo and Dell

A combination of geopolitical tension, technological disruption fears, and financial market stress has created one of the most opportunity-rich environments I have seen in some time. The conflict involving Iran, growing concerns about AI potentially disrupting large segments of the software industry, and several high-profile blowups in the private credit space have rattled sentiment across markets. Yet periods like this, when uncertainty dominates headlines, often create some of the most attractive entry points for disciplined investors.
Importantly, the broader macro backdrop remains constructive. Global economic growth continues at a solid pace, productivity gains are beginning to materialize from technological adoption, and enormous capital expenditures tied to the AI infrastructure buildout are flowing through the global economy. These forces collectively provide a powerful foundation for continued economic expansion.
The primary risk to that outlook at the moment is the escalating situation in Iran. Rising tensions in the region have pushed oil prices sharply higher and introduced the possibility of inflationary pressure if the conflict were to persist or intensify. A prolonged disruption to global energy markets could weigh on economic activity and complicate the outlook for policymakers. That said, as I will outline below, I currently assign relatively low odds to a drawn-out conflict and view some form of resolution in the near term as the more likely outcome.
Despite the geopolitical noise, the equity market itself remains remarkably resilient. Major indexes are still trading only a few percentage points below their record highs. At the same time, many of the market’s largest leaders remain well off their peaks. This dynamic reflects a broadening of market participation, an encouraging development that stands in sharp contrast to the persistent warnings over the past year about excessive index concentration. Rather than signaling weakness, the expansion of leadership across sectors is often characteristic of durable bull markets.
In recent pieces I highlighted opportunities in the Magnificent Seven and the software sector, while earlier coverage focused on energy and gold, both of which have performed exceptionally well. I continue to believe those themes remain intact, though after such strong momentum they may begin to consolidate, particularly if capital rotates back into sectors that now appear discounted.
Today I want to focus on several additional opportunities emerging across technology and financials, including Expedia (EXPE), Nvidia (NVDA), Fair Isaac (FICO), Broadcom (AVGO), Apollo Global Management (APO) and Dell Technologies (DELL).
Interestingly, today’s market action may already be reflecting that view. Overnight, Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures were down more than 2%, yet by the open the market had staged a powerful reversal, pointing to the type of sharp, potentially capitulatory price action that often accompanies intermediate-term bottoms.
Image Source: TradingView
Why the Iran Conflict May Be Shorter Than Markets Fear
Despite the alarming headlines, several structural factors suggest the Iran conflict may be less likely to evolve into a prolonged regional war than many investors fear. According to my research, Iran has already suffered significant degradation of its military capabilities. Much of its missile-launch infrastructure has reportedly been destroyed, and the country has already used a large portion of its ballistic missile inventory while facing a relatively high failure rate. Just as importantly, the infrastructure needed to produce new missiles was damaged in prior strikes, meaning Iran cannot easily replenish its arsenal. These constraints limit Iran’s ability to sustain a long-duration conflict.
Iran also appears to have miscalculated strategically and diplomatically. By launching missiles at several Gulf states, Tehran inadvertently pushed governments that had previously tried to remain neutral closer to the US and Israel. Rather than destabilizing the region politically, the attacks created a rally-around-the-flag effect among Gulf monarchies and provided them political justification to support defensive and potentially offensive actions. Combined with the weakening of Iran’s proxy networks across the region, this further reduces the likelihood that Iran can maintain a prolonged confrontation.
Perhaps most importantly, the expected endgame appears to point toward a negotiated off-ramp rather than regime change. It seems to me that the US and Israel may spend several weeks degrading Iran’s military infrastructure before reopening diplomatic channels. Notably, President Trump’s public position has remained somewhat vague, particularly around what constitutes “unconditional surrender,” leaving room for a resolution that stops short of toppling the regime. In practice, this could mean Iran accepts new military constraints while the existing government remains in place. While a worst-case scenario cannot be ruled out, assessments suggest the probability of a prolonged regional war remains relatively low.
Something also worth noting is the price action in crude oil futures. Similar to what we are seeing in the Nasdaq and broader equity indexes, oil has experienced a sharp reversal that may signal a form of capitulation. Overnight, WTI crude futures briefly surged to $119.48, but prices have since reversed sharply, falling nearly $25 from those highs. While it is impossible to know whether that spike ultimately marks the peak in oil prices, this type of rapid surge followed by an equally aggressive pullback often occurs near turning points and increases the probability that the market may have already seen the worst of the panic-driven move.
Image Source: TradingView
Financial Sector Opportunities: Fair Isaac and Apollo Global Stocks
I have not focused much on the recent drama in the private credit market in my commentary, but it has become a major topic of discussion across the credit and debt industry. Private credit has expanded at an extraordinary pace, growing from roughly $500 billion in assets under management in 2020 to around $2 trillion today, and was virtually nonexistent as an institutional asset class just a decade ago.
Apollo Global Management has emerged as one of the clear leaders in this rapidly expanding market. The boom has been extremely lucrative for firms operating in the space, though the speed of growth has also raised concerns that some lenders may have become overly aggressive with underwriting standards. Blue Owl Capital has been the primary company in the headlines amid these concerns, fueling broader fears of stress within the private credit ecosystem.
Much of the commentary surrounding the issue has drawn comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis, though that characterization appears exaggerated. Leverage levels across the system are considerably lower, and the risks appear far more contained. Nevertheless, the concerns have pressured stocks across the alternative asset management space, including Apollo.
That pullback has created a potentially attractive entry point. Apollo Global Management currently trades at just 11.8x forward earnings, near one of its most compelling valuations in years. At the same time, earnings are projected to grow 14.3% annually over the next three to five years, while revenue is expected to climb in the high teens this year and next. Importantly, Apollo’s business is also highly diversified across asset management, insurance, and private markets, meaning its earnings power extends well beyond private credit alone.
Fair Isaac, meanwhile, has been caught up in a completely different selloff. Rather than credit market concerns, the stock has been pressured by the broader correction in software stocks, as well as lingering controversy surrounding price increases implemented more than a year ago. Despite that noise, the company’s underlying business continues to perform exceptionally well.
Shares currently trade at 35.2x forward earnings, which is not inexpensive on an absolute basis but looks more reasonable relative to the company’s historical valuation. Over the past decade, Fair Isaac has traded at a median multiple of roughly 50x earnings, reflecting the company’s powerful competitive moat and dominant position in credit scoring. That competitive advantage remains firmly intact, and analysts expect earnings to grow nearly 28.6% annually over the long term, suggesting the company’s premium valuation may continue to be justified.
Tech Stock Opportunities Multiply: NVDA, AVGO, EXPE and DELL
Concerns about overvalued technology stocks have dominated market conversations for much of the past year. Yet in many cases, the data no longer supports that narrative. After a period of sharp corrections and consolidations, several major technology companies are now trading at far more reasonable valuations while their underlying businesses continue to grow at impressive rates.
A number of tech leaders now stand out as particularly compelling opportunities, including Nvidia, Broadcom, Dell Technologies, and Expedia.
Nvidia, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), remains the clear leader in AI infrastructure. Despite its dominant position, the stock now trades at roughly 22.7x forward earnings, a modest multiple for a company expected to deliver long-term EPS growth of about 39% annually. Revenue is projected to surge 59% this year and another 27% next year, reflecting continued explosive demand for AI compute. Nvidia has also expanded its reach by investing in numerous AI startups, giving the company exposure across AI ecosystem.
Broadcom offers many of the same structural growth catalysts tied to AI infrastructure and data center expansion. Shares currently trade at around 31.9x forward earnings, while analysts expect earnings to grow roughly 48.6% annually over the next three to five years. Revenue growth is projected to remain exceptionally strong as well, with sales expected to rise 53% this year and 45% next year, remarkable growth for a company of Broadcom’s scale.
Dell Technologies represents a different type of opportunity within the AI trade. The company was an early beneficiary of the surge in demand for AI servers and data center hardware, and the stock has spent the past couple of years consolidating those gains. Today, Dell trades at a very reasonable 11.5x forward earnings, while analysts expect earnings to grow about 18% annually over the next three to five years. With its valuation compressed and demand for AI infrastructure continuing to expand, the stock appears well positioned for a potential breakout to new highs.
Finally, Expedia stands out as a true bargain within the broader technology sector. Shares currently trade at roughly 13x forward earnings, while analysts expect EPS to grow nearly 20% annually over the long term. In addition to its strong portfolio of consumer travel brands, Expedia has been building a rapidly expanding B2B travel platform, which allows partners to access its inventory and booking technology. That segment has become an increasingly important driver of growth having grown 24% in the past year.
Finding Opportunity in Uncertain Markets
Periods of uncertainty often create the most compelling investment opportunities. While geopolitical tensions and sector-specific fears have unsettled markets in the short term, the broader economic backdrop remains constructive and many high-quality companies are now trading at far more attractive valuations than they were just a year ago.
For disciplined investors willing to look through the current noise, opportunities are emerging across several sectors. If the macro environment remains stable and current fears begin to fade, these names could be well positioned to participate in the next leg of the bull market.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Amid Conflict Numerous Opportunities Arise in Stocks

Shares of BlackRock BLK are down 10.7% this year, with the recent private credit woes majorly hurting investor sentiment. The company has restricted withdrawals from its private credit fund, HPS Corporate Lending Fund (“HLEND”), following a jump in redemption requests. This was first reported by the Financial Times.
HLEND, which manages approximately $26 billion and is one of BLK's largest private credit funds, received nearly $1.2 billion in redemption requests (9.3% of its net asset value) in the ongoing quarter. However, the fund will pay out $620 million, touching the 5% quarterly threshold.
BlackRock acquired HPS Investment Partners last year as part of its efforts to expand into private credit, which offers a way to diversification from the traditional public markets. Additionally, the company acquired ElmTree Funds, Preqin and Global Infrastructure Partners as part of a strategic expansion of its Aladdin technology business into the rapidly growing private markets data segment.
Nonetheless, recent concerns, including rising redemptions, tighter liquidity, valuation scrutiny and mounting default headwinds, are weighing on alternative asset managers such as BlackRock, Apollo Global APO, Blue Owl Capital Inc. OWL and Blackstone BX. Hence, shares of these companies have faced bearish investor sentiment, with all trading in the red.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HLEND’s redemption request news came amid growing apprehensions about systemic risks in the private credit market. Earlier this month, Blackstone announced a rise in its redemption cap from 5% to 7% after facing a surge of investor requests. Last month, Blue Owl Capital moved to restrict investor withdrawals from one of its retail-focused funds. Further, Apollo Global’s CEO, Marc Rowan, has warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms as the industry faces concerns about rising defaults on loans to software companies.
Against such a backdrop, it is important to evaluate how these factors may affect BlackRock and how market participants should approach the stock in the current environment. Let’s delve deeper and analyze BLK’s investment worthiness.
Product Diversification to Boost BlackRock’s AUM
BlackRock has been focusing on diversifying its product suite and revenue mix, which, along with acquisitions, has been improving assets under management (AUM) over the years. AUM recorded a five-year (2020-2025) CAGR of 10.1%, driven by an inorganic expansion strategy and upbeat market returns. As of Dec. 31, 2025, total AUM was a record $14.04 trillion.
In 2025, BlackRock witnessed record net inflows of $698 billion, after $641 billion of inflows in 2024. The momentum will likely continue as efforts to strengthen iShares (offering more than 1,700 ETFs globally) and ETF operations, along with the company’s increased focus on the active equity business, are expected to offer support.
BlackRock is expanding its iBonds ETF platform and launching a leveraged loan fund to diversify offerings and aiming to enhance its market position. Further, the company has expanded its business in India by partnering with Jio Financial and operates as an investment adviser in the country. Over the last few years, the company has had nearly 40% of total AUM for clients domiciled outside the United States.
Such product diversification and global expansion efforts are likely to bolster the company’s revenue mix, reduce revenue concentration risk and allow it to serve a broader range of clients, aiding AUM growth. BlackRock’s GAAP revenues witnessed a CAGR of 8.4% over the last five years ended 2025.
BLK’s Encouraging Capital Distributions
As of Dec. 31, 2025, BlackRock had $11.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents while borrowings totaled $12.8 billion. This indicates a solid liquidity position.
The company hikes dividends annually. BlackRock announced a 10% hike in the quarterly dividend to $5.73 per share in January 2026. It increased its dividend five times in the last five years with an annualized dividend growth rate of 5.02%.
Also, the company has a 43% dividend payout ratio, while its peers, Blackstone, Apollo Global and Blue Owl Capital have 93%, 27% and 107% payout ratios, respectively.
BlackRock has a share repurchase plan in place. In January, the company’s board of directors authorized the buyback of an additional 7 million shares under its existing share repurchase program. BlackRock expects to repurchase at least $1.8 billion worth of shares this year, after buying back shares worth $1.6 billion in 2025.
Analyst Sentiments for BLK
Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has remained unchanged at $53.64 and $60.91, respectively, implying growth of 11.5% and 15.4%.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Approach BlackRock Stock Now
In terms of valuation, BLK’s price-to-earnings (P/E) forward 12-months of 17.32X is above the industry's 12.66X. Thus, the stock is expensive.
P/E F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BlackRock is trading at a premium compared with Blackstone, Apollo Global and Blue Owl Capital.
Further, a steady rise in expenses is a headwind. The company recorded a five-year CAGR of 10.3% (ended 2025), mainly due to higher general and administrative costs and acquisitions completed during the period. Overall costs are expected to remain elevated due to the company’s business expansion plans. Given rising geopolitical risks and foreign currency fluctuations, BlackRock may witness subdued overseas revenues.
Amid growing concerns around private credit, BlackRock appears relatively insulated. As of Dec. 31, 2025, Alternatives (including private markets) accounted for just 3% of its total AUM, limiting direct exposure. Backed by record AUM and ongoing product diversification, the company remains well-positioned. Still, investors should closely monitor how private credit-related risks evolve and assess BlackRock’s strategic response before making fresh investment decisions. Existing shareholders may hold the stock for now.
Currently, BLK carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

BlackRock's Private Credit Woes: Time to Sell the Stock?

(RTTNews) - Private equity firm Siris announced a definitive agreement to acquire a majority stake in TAKKION, a services provider to the renewable energy industry, from funds managed by Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO). The terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.
Siris said TAKKION provides a mission-critical service, supporting the renewable energy sector, and is well positioned to further capitalize on the accelerating energy demands driven by AI data center expansion.
Siris will partner with TAKKIONs highly experienced management team to further optimize operations, expand its proven service capabilities into adjacent renewable sectors, and pursue both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.
Already a leader in wind energy services, TAKKION is well-positioned to continue expanding into adjacencies such as solar, battery, and transmission.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Siris To Acquire Majority Stake In TAKKION From Apollo Global For Undisclosed Terms

Investing in the private-credit market can offer high yields, but the downside risks are real and increasingly visible. The main concerns fall into four categories: valuation opacity, liquidity risk, credit deterioration, and structural vulnerabilities.
Bringing the issue into sharper focus, prominent financial leaders, including JPMorgan JPM CEO Jamie Dimon, have warned about the growing risks that the private-credit market poses to the broader economy.
This makes it a worthy topic of whether there is opportunity in private credit stocks, or if there is indeed too much risk ahead.
What are Private Credit Risks?
Private credit risk refers to the vulnerabilities and potential losses associated with lending in the private credit market, where non-bank lenders provide loans that are not traded on public markets. The core idea is that this market offers higher yields but comes with less transparency, weaker regulation, and higher borrower risk than traditional bank or public debt markets.
Stocks with high exposure to private credit risks are largely concentrated among major alternative asset managers and Business Development Companies (BDCs), particularly those with significant software and technology sector lending.
Software Sector Risk: Many BDCs have about 25% of their portfolios in software, which is vulnerable to AI-induced disruption and refinancing difficulties.
Rising Defaults: Analysts predict potential default rates for U.S. private credit firms could rise significantly, up to 13%, if AI disrupts the software sector.
Bank Contagion: Some regional bank stocks are also facing pressure due to exposure to risky private loans.
Blue Owl Capital is a Stock to Avoid at the Moment
Landing a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), Blue Owl Capital OWL is a notable private credit stock to avoid at the moment. Although Blue Owl’s attractive P/E valuation and stock price of $10 a share may be luring to investors, EPS revisions for FY26 and FY27 have continued to trend lower.
Despite trading at just 10X forward earnings, the pullback in Blue Owl stock towards 52-week lows has also been attributed to restrictions on investor withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), a retail-oriented private-credit vehicle. Investors can no longer redeem shares on a quarterly basis, reversing earlier plans to reopen withdrawals.
Restricting these quarterly redemption opportunities, referred to as withdrawal windows, that its semi-liquid private-credit funds used to offer, typically allowed investors to request redemptions once per quarter, subject to caps. Recent developments show that these opportunities have been restricted, restructured, or eliminated across key Blue Owl vehicles, which has become a major stress point in the private-credit market in regard to liquidity concerns.
Top Private Credit Stocks to Consider
Although there are currently no buy-rated stocks among the notable private credit providing asset managers, here are three that are standing out with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Ordered by market cap, these financial firms have strong fundamentals but have experienced a mixed or not overly compelling trend of EPS revisions amid recent private credit risk concerns.
While it may still be better buying opportunities ahead, the long-term risk-to-reward has become more attractive with each of these stocks trading more 30% from their 52-week highs.
1. The Blackstone Group – BX
Stock Price: $114
FY26 EPS Growth Projections: 14%, ($6.37 per share)
Forward P/E Valuation: 17X
Dividend Yield: 5.37%
Headquartered in New York, Blackstone Inc. BX is a leading asset manager of alternative investments and a global provider of financial advisory services. Blackstone has a large software/tech sleeve in private credit & BDCs.
2. Apollo Global Management – APO
Stock Price: $109
FY26 EPS Growth Projections: 10%, ($9.25 per share)
Forward P/E Valuation: 11X
Dividend Yield: 1.91%
Also based in New York, Apollo Global Management LLC APO is a high-growth, global alternative asset manager and retirement services provider. Apollo is a major direct lender to software and SaaS (Software as a Service) companies.
3. Ares Management – ARES
Stock Price: $116
FY26 EPS Growth Projections: 37%, ($6.53 per share)
Forward P/E Valuation: 17X
Dividend Yield: 3.98%
Headquartered in Los Angeles, Ares Management Corporation ARES is a global alternative investment manager that offers investment solutions across credit, private equity, and real assets to institutional and individual investors worldwide.
Notably, Ares Management has been among the most vocal defenders of software exposure, saying its portfolios are resilient despite pressure in the space.
A Publicly Traded BDC with Strong Demand
It’s noteworthy that BDCs are one of the most direct ways to invest in private credit, as they often benefit from the same tailwinds, floating-rate loans, strong origination pipelines, and investor demand for high yields.
Ares Capital ARCC is one such BDC seeing increased demand as a specialty finance company that primarily invests in U.S. middle-market companies (firms having annual earnings in the range of $10-$250 million).
Being less susceptible to volatility, Ares Capital stock has a tight 52-week range of $18-$23 a share. Bolstering its low Beta, which is currently at the optimum level of less than 1.0, is Ares Capital's lofty 10.13% annual dividend yield. ARCC also trades at an attractive 9X forward earnings multiple, although FY26 EPS is expected to dip 3% to $1.94. For now, Ares Capital stock lands a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Bottom Line & What to Watch Next
Investing in private credit stocks offers a mix of compelling advantages and meaningful risks. The private credit market has delivered higher long-term returns than many public-market strategies, driven by active management, operational improvements, and strategic exits.
In today’s environment — where rates are high but stabilizing, deal activity remains selective, and demand for private credit is strong — these stocks still offer meaningful long-term growth potential. However, they also face near-term volatility driven by macro conditions, especially given their sizable exposure to software investments at a time when sentiment is weakening amid concerns about AI-driven disruption.
That said, here are four key points that investors will want to watch going forward.
1. Rising defaults among private-credit-backed companies
2. Valuation pressure if rates fall and floating-rate income declines
3. Liquidity concerns for semi-liquid funds
4. Regulatory scrutiny of non-bank lenders
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Is There Opportunity in Private Credit Stocks or Still Too Much Risk?

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -0.43%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.30%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.47%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -0.38%.
Stock indexes on Friday added to Thursday’s losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to a 3.5-week low as the disruptive potential of AI weighed on markets. Bank stocks tumbled on Friday as the collapse of the UK’s private lender Market Financial Solutions Ltd added to fears that banks could face rising defaults. Also, the weakness in software companies and cybersecurity stocks weighed on the broader market. In addition, stocks fell after the US Jan PPI report rose more than expected, dampening any speculation that the Fed would cut interest rates in the near term.
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Stock indexes recovered from their worst levels on Friday after the Feb MNI Chicago PMI and Dec construction spending reports rose more than expected, which are signs of economic strength. Also, Dell Technologies surged more than +21% following a strong sales forecast for its AI servers. In addition, lower bond yields are supportive of stocks as the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 4-month low Friday at 3.96%.
US Jan PPI final demand rose +0.5% m/m and +2.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Jan PPI ex-food and energy rose +3.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y and the largest increase in 10 months.
The US Feb MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly rose by 3.7 points to 57.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.1 and the fastest pace of expansion in 3.75 years.
US Dec construction spending rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
Geopolitical risks remain a negative for stocks. WTI crude oil (CLJ26) rallied more than +2% to a 7-month high on Friday after President Trump sounded downbeat about diplomatic talks with Iran, saying, "They cannot have nuclear weapons, and we're not thrilled with the way they're negotiating." Axios reported that US negotiators, Kushner and Witkoff, left Geneva disappointed by what they heard from Iranian officials in the US-Iranian nuclear talks. Iran's state media reported that Iran won't allow enriched uranium to leave the country. The enrichment of uranium remains a sticking point in the nuclear negotiations, with the US saying Iran would have to send such stocks of uranium to another country or dilute them. The nuclear talks are scheduled to resume next week in Vienna. President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program and gave them a March 1-6 deadline for an agreement over the country’s nuclear activities and has threatened military strikes if it fails to comply.
In Tuesday night’s State of the Union address, President Trump doubled down on his commitment to tariffs. President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court struck down his global “reciprocal” tariffs last Friday. Mr. Trump subsequently threatened to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House is working on a formal order to implement that higher rate, but the timeline for its implementation has not been finalized. Mr. Trump is applying the 10% baseline levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose the charge for 150 days without congressional approval.
Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 472 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 6% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.38%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.39%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.16%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Friday closed up by +14 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.2 bp to 3.962%. Mar T-notes rallied to a 4.5-month high on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 4-month low of 3.955%. Friday’s stock slump has boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, private credit jitters and heightened US-Iran tensions boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes. In addition, end-of-month buying by bond dealers boosted T-notes as they extended the duration of their portfolios and bought longer-term government debt.
European government bond yields moved lower on Friday. The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 3.5-month low of 2.643% and finished down -4.7 bp on that low. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 14.75-month low of 4.231% and finished down -4.2 bp to 4.233%.
Eurozone Jan ECB 1-year CPI expectations fell to 2.6%, weaker than expectations of 2.7%. Jan 2-year CPI expectations were unchanged from Dec at 2.6%, stronger than expectations of 2.5%.
German Feb CPI (EU harmonized) rose +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Bank stocks and credit card companies sank on Friday as the collapse of the UK’s private lender Market Financial Solutions Ltd added to fears that banks could face rising defaults. American Express (AXP) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Goldman Sachs (GS) closed down more than -7%, and Morgan Stanley (MS), Capital One Financial (COF), and Synchrony Financial (SYF) closed down more than -6%. In addition, Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), and Regions Financial (RF) closed down more than -5%.
Chipmakers slid on Friday, weighing on the overall market. Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -4%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Lam Research (LRCX), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than -2%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -1%.
Zscaler (ZS) closed down more than -12% to lead cybersecurity stocks lower and losers in the Nasdaq 100 despite reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.01, better than the consensus of 90 cents. Also, Okta (OKTA) closed down more than -4%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Cloudflare (NET) closed down more than -1%.
Software stocks retreated on Friday, a negative factor for the broader market. Atlassian (TEAM) closed down more than -5%, and Datadog (DDOG), Oracle (ORCL), and Thomson Reuters (TRI) closed down more than -3%. Also, Salesforce (CRM) closed down more than -2%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and ServiceNow (NOW) closed down more than -1%.
Airline stocks sold off on Friday after WTI crude oil jumped to a 7-month high, which will boost jet fuel prices and potentially cut into airlines’ profits. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed down more than -6%. In addition, Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed down more than -3%.
CoreWeave (CRWV) closed down more than -18% after reporting a Q4 loss per share of -89 cents, wider than the consensus of -72 cents per share.
Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLUT) closed down more than -14% after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.74 billion, below the consensus of $4.94 billion, and forecasting full-year US revenue of $7.4 billion to $8.2 billion, weaker than the consensus of $8.73 billion.
Duolingo (DUOL) closed down more than -14% after forecasting full-year revenue of $1.20 billion to $1.22 billion, well below the consensus of $1.26 billion.
Apollo Global Management (APO) closed down more than -8% after cutting its quarterly dividend to 31 cents a share from 38 cents, citing a markdown in its portfolio from soured loans.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed down more than -5% after pushing back the launch of its Neutron rocket to the fourth quarter of this year.
Dell Technologies (DELL) closed up more than +21% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted operating income of $3.54 billion, better than the consensus of $3.27 billion, raised its annual dividend by 20%, and boosted its stock buyback program by $10 billion.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed up more than +20% after agreeing to pay $111 billion for Warner Bros Discovery, outbidding Netflix for the company.
Block (XYZ) closed up more than +16% after raising its full-year gross profit estimate to $12.20 billion from a previous estimate of $11.98 billion, above the consensus of $11.91 billion, and said it was reducing its workforce by nearly half.
Netflix (NFLX) closed up more than +13% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after dropping out of the competition to acquire Warner Bros Discovery.
NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) closed up more than +5% after being acquired by The Brink’s Company for $6.6 billion.
Autodesk (ADSK) closed up more than +4% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.85, stronger than the consensus of $2.65, and forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of $12.29 to $12.56, well above the consensus of $11.59.
Caris Life Sciences (CAI) closed up more than +4% after forecasting full-year revenue of $1.00 billion to $1.02 billion, stronger than the consensus of $993 million.
Earnings Reports(3/2/2026)
AAON Inc (AAON), ADT Inc (ADT), AES Corp/The (AES), AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Ingram Micro Holding Corp (INGM), MongoDB Inc (MDB), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Sealed Air Corp (SEE), Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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