Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Strong index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Средний индекс, значительно вырос. Рынок на стороне быков.

Medium index, significantly up. The market is on the bulls' side.

Слабый индекс, незначительно вырос

Key Points
SoFi got its bank charter in 2022, and it was one of the first fintechs to get one.
It has been transformative for the bank, allowing it to take deposits and fund its loans more effectively.
Upstart and Affirm have both applied for bank charters.
One of the challenges for nontraditional fintech lenders has been the expense associated with lending.
Because most of them do not have bank charters, they must partner with a traditional third-party bank to fund their loans. However, they must pay a fee or provide a cut of interest income earned on every loan they make using a third party. That eats into their profits.
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A federal bank charter would allow the fintechs to take deposits, because without one, they cannot. The deposits serve as an internal funding source, as loans can be made from the deposit base. With an internal funding source, these fintechs do not have to get third-party funding for loans, which, in turn, allows them to save on fees and collect all of the interest income.
Since fintechs started popping up more frequently over the past five or six years, federal regulators have been reluctant to grant bank charters to fintechs, imposing stringent requirements. But that has changed over the past couple of years as restrictions have eased. There has been a surge in the number of fintechs applying for, and getting, bank charters.
It is a development that could have a significant effect on the banking industry, as many of these fintechs are digital lenders with lower overhead costs. Plus, because they have lower overhead, they can offer higher deposit rates and lower interest rates on loans, thus attracting more customers. Many have partnerships or customers through their technology platforms that could provide them with an extensive reach.
Three of the largest and most successful fintechs -- SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI), Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), and Affirm (NASDAQ: AFRM) -- occupy different niches within the banking and payments universe, yet only one has the advantage of a full bank charter, at least right now.
The SoFi advantage
On Jan. 18, 2022, SoFi was one of the first fintechs to get a bank charter. It did so by acquisition, buying a small California bank, Golden Pacific, and then applying for the bank charter through it.
That was a pivotal moment in the history of SoFi, as it could begin taking deposits, funding its own loans, and expanding its business. It came, unfortunately, at a time when inflation was rising, the market was crashing, and interest rates were skyrocketing. It was a difficult environment for all banks -- fintechs and traditional -- so SoFi didn't get any immediate boost from it.
The bank charter was more about the long-term effect for SoFi rather than a short-term boost. Just look at its growth since then. In the quarter when SoFi got its charter, first-quarter 2022, it had already attracted $1.2 billion in deposits. In the latest quarter, second-quarter 2026, it had $45.5 billion in deposits. It had 3.9 million active customers or members using 5.9 million products in Q1 2022. This latest quarter, it had 15.8 million members using 24.4 million products.
Additionally, SoFi went from operating at a net loss of $110 million with earnings of -$0.14 per share four years ago to net income of $156 million, or $0.12 per share, in Q2 2026.
Upstart and Affirm
SoFi stock has struggled year to date, down about 36%, despite surging revenue, earnings, and membership growth. Some of this stems from a short-seller report that questioned some of SoFi's accounting practices, but a lot of it has to do with SoFi's high valuation. However, its valuation has dropped as investors have sold off, or perhaps taken profits after three straight huge years. SoFi stock returned 116% in 2023, 54% in 2024, and 70% in 2025.
SoFi's valuation is back down to a much more reasonable level, trading at 34 times earnings and 21 times forward earnings. It is starting to look like much more of a buying opportunity at these valuation levels.
As for Upstart and Affirm, they have both applied for national bank charters. Upstart got conditional approval for a bank charter in July, and it is expected to get final approval in early 2027.
Buy now, pay later provider Affirm applied for an industrial loan bank charter in January. It has not yet been granted any approvals. But if and when these two fintechs do get bank charters, it could be equally transformative for them, so keep an eye out for that.
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Upstart, Affirm, and SoFi All Lend to the Same Borrowers. Only One of Them Funds With Deposits.

PayPal Holdings PYPL is increasingly relying on financial services to diversify its growth beyond payments and branded checkout. Management expects financial-services revenues, including credit and BNPL, to grow at least twice as fast as the overall company in 2026. In the second quarter of 2026, financial services already accounted for close to 20% of PayPal’s transaction margin.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is emerging as a key growth driver. BNPL total payment volume (TPV) grew 26%, while monthly active accounts (MAAs) increased more than 20% in the second quarter of 2026. PayPal plans to expand the product through broader merchant distribution, additional markets and a wider product portfolio, creating more opportunities to deepen customer engagement.
Credit and debit products are also strengthening PayPal’s financial-services ecosystem. In the second quarter of 2026, Venmo Debit Card MAAs grew more than 50%, while customers using both Venmo Debit and Pay with Venmo generated more than nine times the average revenue per account (ARPA) of peer-to-peer-only users. This highlights the opportunity to generate more revenues from PayPal’s existing customer base.
However, expanding financial services comes with risks. In the second quarter of 2026, consumer and merchant net charge-off rates have increased to 4.8% and 7.6%, respectively. Credit expansion also increases liquidity requirements and makes PayPal partly dependent on external funding sources to support lending growth.
Overall, financial services could become one of PayPal’s most important long-term growth engines. The key will be balancing BNPL, credit and debit adoption with strong credit quality, capital efficiency and attractive returns.
How Are PYPL’s Competitors Faring
Affirm Holdings AFRM is a major PayPal BNPL rival. In fiscal 2026, Affirm generated $50.2 billion in GMV, up 37% year over year, and served about 28 million active consumers and 571,000 active merchants. Its rapid growth highlights strong competition in installment lending and online checkout financing across digital commerce.
Klarna KLAR also competes directly with PayPal in BNPL and consumer credit. In the second quarter of 2026, Klarna reported $36.6 billion in GMV, up 18%, while revenues rose 27% to $1.04 billion. It had 120 million active consumers and more than 1.2 million merchants, giving it substantial global distribution scale and checkout reach.
PYPL’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of PayPal have gained 37.6% in the past three months compared with the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index.
From a valuation standpoint, PayPal’s shares are trading cheaply, as suggested by the Value Score of A. In terms of forward 12-month P/E, PYPL stock is trading at 10.03X, which is at a significant discount to the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry’s 19.20X.
PayPal’s estimate revisions reflect a positive trend. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2026 EPS has been revised upward to $5.38 over the past week. The consensus estimate for the metric indicates a year-over-year increase of 1.32%.
PayPal currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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PayPal's BNPL and Credit Growth: Can It be a Further Upside Driver?

Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings of $4.62 per share. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents by 1,300%. The metric rose from 20 cents a year ago.
Revenues of $1.17 billion rose 33.0% year over year and surpassed the consensus mark of $1.11 billion by 5.4%.
AFRM’s strong quarterly results were driven by robust Gross Merchandise Volume (“GMV”) growth, higher transactions, strong repeat customer engagement and increased interest income. Rapid growth in Affirm Card adoption and merchant activity also supported the performance. However, elevated operating expenses and higher provision for credit losses partly offset the gains. The bottom line also benefited significantly from a $1.45 billion income tax benefit related to the release of a valuation allowance on domestic deferred tax assets.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
AFRM’s Q4 Performance
As of June 30, 2026, AFRM’s active merchants totaled 570,800, up 50% year over year. GMV increased 36% year over year to $14.1 billion. The figure also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.4 billion. The metric gained from strong contributions from direct merchant point-of-sale integrations, wallet partnerships and direct-to-consumer offerings.
Total transactions rallied 41.1% year over year to 52.9 million on the back of a significant surge in repeat customer transactions. The metric beat the consensus mark of 47.4 million. Active cardholders more than doubled to 5.2 million, lifting the card attach rate to about 19%.
Servicing income of $46.1 million advanced 36% year over year and beat the consensus mark of $45.4 million. Interest income rose 35% year over year to $567.3 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $542.3 million.
Merchant network revenues improved 26.3% year over year to $302.4 million but missed the consensus mark of $306.1 million. The metric gained from growing GMV. Card network revenues amounted to $85.2 million, up 26.9% year over year, attributable to higher usage of Affirm Card and Affirm virtual cards. The metric beat the consensus mark of $75.9 million.
Operating expenses increased 24.5% year over year to $1.02 billion. Provision for credit losses climbed 42.5% to $223.2 million, while technology and data analytics expenses rose 31% to $202.6 million. Higher infrastructure costs and amortization of internally developed software contributed to the increase in technology and data analytics expenses.
Operating income improved to $147.3 million from $58.1 million, with operating margin expanding to 12.6% from 6.6%. Adjusted operating income increased 49% to $353.4 million, and adjusted operating margin improved to 30.3% from 27.0%.
Financial Position of Affirm (As of June 30, 2026)
Affirm exited the fiscal fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.6 billion, which increased from $1.4 billion as of fiscal 2025-end. Total assets of $15.8 billion rose from the fiscal 2025-end level of $11.2 billion.
Funding debt totaled $3.3 billion compared with $1.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2025. Total stockholders’ equity was $5.5 billion, up from $3.1 billion at the end of fiscal 2025.
AFRM generated $1.2 billion in net cash from operations for the 12 months ended June 30, 2026, compared with $793.9 million for the 12 months ended June 30, 2025.
Full-Year Update
AFRM reported 2026 operating revenues of $4.3 billion, up from $3.2 billion a year ago. Full-year adjusted net income was $5.53 per share, up from 15 cents a year ago.
Q1 2027 and FY2027 Guidance
For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, AFRM expects GMV of $13.7-$14.0 billion and revenues of $1.19-$1.22 billion. The company projects revenue less transaction costs of $575-$590 million, an adjusted operating margin of 28.0-30.0% and a GAAP operating margin of 11.5-13.5%.
For fiscal 2027, management expects GMV of more than $64 billion. The company expects revenues to remain near 8.49% of GMV, the fiscal 2026 level. Adjusted and GAAP operating margins are projected to exceed 30.5% and 14.5%, respectively.
Zacks Rank of Affirm Holdings
Affirm Holdings currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
How Did the Peers Perform?
Other payment space players like Mastercard Incorporated MA, Visa Inc. V) and American Express AXP have also reported their quarterly numbers. Here’s how they have performed:
Mastercard reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.04, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.7%. The bottom line improved 21.4% year over year. Net revenues advanced 14.1% year over year to $9.3 billion. The top line beat the consensus mark by 2.4%. Mastercard’s quarterly results benefited from strong cross-border volume growth, increased switched transactions and robust demand for value-added services. The upside was partly offset by higher payment network rebates from renewed deals and an escalating operating expense level.
Visa delivered third-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.32 per share, which rose 11% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.8%. Net revenues were $11.63 billion, rising 14% year over year. Visa’s quarterly results reflected resilient spending trends, higher cross-border volumes and solid network activity, including a 10% year-over-year increase in payments volume on a constant-dollar basis. The upside was partly offset by increased operating expenses.
American Express reported second-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.53, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line advanced 11% year over year. Total revenues, net of interest expense, improved 10% year over year to $19.6 billion. AXP’s quarterly results were driven by increased Card Member spending, higher net interest income and improved card fee growth. However, the upside was partly offset by elevated operating expenses.
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Affirm Q4 Earnings Beat on Strong GMV Growth, Rising Card Adoption

The lending company is experiencing significant top-line growth.
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Affirm Stock: Follow Now and Buy Later or Buy Right Now?

The NASDAQ 100 After Hours Indicator is down -5.45 to 29,427.98. The total After hours volume is currently 111,681,004 shares traded.
The following are the most active stocks for the after hours session:
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) is +0.03 at $14.33, with 10,325,215 shares traded. NU's current last sale is 77.25% of the target price of $18.55.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is +0.2456 at $217.80, with 7,647,558 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 5 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Oct 2026. The consensus EPS forecast is $2.4. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for NVDA is in the "buy range".
Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) is -0.06 at $37.61, with 5,959,562 shares traded. TENB's current last sale is 105.94% of the target price of $35.5.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is -0.02 at $81.70, with 5,905,240 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for NFLX is in the "buy range".
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is -0.22 at $77.54, with 5,800,753 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for AFRM is in the "buy range".
Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) is +0.0431 at $27.10, with 3,746,746 shares traded. CMCSA's current last sale is 90.34% of the target price of $30.
Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) is -0.0407 at $27.92, with 3,176,906 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2026. The consensus EPS forecast is $0.74. PFE's current last sale is 99.71% of the target price of $28.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is unchanged at $346.59, with 3,101,533 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for GOOGL is in the "buy range".
Gerdau S.A. (GGB) is unchanged at $4.59, with 2,670,715 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for GGB is in the "buy range".
Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) is +0.1205 at $46.96, with 2,452,248 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for BSX is in the "buy range".
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (PBR) is -0.01 at $18.52, with 2,220,218 shares traded. PBR's current last sale is 84.18% of the target price of $22.
VALE S.A. (VALE) is +0.03 at $15.06, with 1,803,912 shares traded. VALE's current last sale is 94.13% of the target price of $16.

After Hours Most Active for Aug 28, 2026 : NU, NVDA, TENB, NFLX, AFRM, CMCSA, PFE, GOOGL, GGB, BSX, PBR, VALE

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.37% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.18%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.40%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.20%.
Stock indices are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1.5-week highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials rising to a 2-week high. Stocks found support today on comments from Fed Chair Warsh, who said he's impressed by the economy, which appears to have strengthened, and vowed to get inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target. Today’s upward revision to the University of Michigan’s US Aug consumer sentiment index is also bullish for stocks.
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On the negative side, chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are weaker, led by a -7% slide in Marvell Technology after the company forecast Q3 adjusted gross margin below consensus. Also, today’s economic news showed an unexpected downward revision to US 2026 nonfarm payrolls, suggesting the labor market was weaker than previously stated. In addition, the Aug MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -10.5 to 47.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 57.9 and the steepest pace of contraction in 8 months.
The University of Michigan US Aug consumer sentiment index was revised upward by +0.7 to 51.7, stronger than expectations of no change at 51.0.
The University of Michigan US Aug 1-year inflation expectations were unexpectedly revised downward to 4.0% from 4.3% versus expectations of an upward revision to 4.4%. The Aug 5-10 year inflation expectations were kept unrevised at 3.3%, right on expectations.
The annual benchmark revisions to 2026 US nonfarm payrolls showed an unexpected decline of -79,000 jobs, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of a +183,000 increase.
Fed Chair Warsh said he's impressed by the economy, which appears to have strengthened, and said inflation data don't suggest the trend has meaningfully improved. He added that policymakers must be confident inflation will return to their 2% target; otherwise, the Fed has "work to do."
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down nearly -1% today on signs of larger oil supplies leaving the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15 million to 16 million bpd, about two-thirds of pre-war levels. Crude prices also weakened today on reports that Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, which could increase the chances of a price war as the remaining members of the cartel compete with one another for customers and market share.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 486 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data.
The markets are discounting a 56% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.97%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.41%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) are down by -2 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.4 bp to 4.674%. T-notes are slightly lower today after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh pushed the chances of a Fed rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting up to 56% from 36% before he spoke. T-notes were also pressured after the University of Michigan US Aug consumer sentiment index was revised higher.
Losses in T-notes are limited after annual revisions to 2026 US payrolls showed the labor market was weaker than initially reported. Also, the Aug MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly contracted by the most in 8 months, a dovish factor for Fed policy. In addition, the University of Michigan US Aug 1-year inflation expectations were unexpectedly revised downward to 4.0% from 4.3%.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 15-year high of 3.286% and is up +1.2 bp to 3.265%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.2 bp to 5.052%.
The Eurozone Aug economic confidence index rose +1.3 to a 7-month high of 98.4, stronger than expectations of 97.5.
Markets are discounting a 96% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.
US Stock Movers
Most of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, sans Tesla and Nvidia, are moving higher today, a bullish factor for the overall market. Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +4%, and
Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are up more than +2%.
Most software stocks are climbing today, supporting the broader market. Workday (WDAY) is up more than +5%, and ServiceNow (NOW) and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) are up more than +4%. Also, Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Adobe Systems (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), and Microsoft (MSFT) are up more than +1%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, led by a -7% decline in Marvell Technology (MRVL) after it forecast Q3 adjusted gross margin of 57.5% to 58.5%, the midpoint below the consensus of 58.4%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -1%. Also, ARM Holdings (ARM) is down more than -3%, and Analog Devices (ADI), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are down more than -2%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), Microchip Technology (MU), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%.
Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, led by a -7% fall in SentinelOne (S) after forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of 30 cents to 32 cents, below the consensus of 35 cents. Also, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -5%, and Fortinet (FTNT) is down more than -4%. In addition, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is down more than -3%, and Okta (OKTA), Zscaler (ZS), and Cloudflare (NET) are down more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are retreating today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%. Iren Limited (IREN) is down more than -10%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -6%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -3%, and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are down more than -2%.
Elastic NV (ESTC) is up more than +17% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, stronger than the consensus of 59 cents, and raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 from a previous forecast of $3.21 to $3.29, above the consensus of $3.24.
Gap (GAP) is up more than +13% after raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.35 to $2.45 from a previous forecast of $2.30 to $2.40.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.17 billion, better than the consensus of $1.11 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.17 billion.
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is up more than +2% after a Netflix preview of the company’s new Grand Theft Auto VI video game drew positive reviews.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after people with knowledge of the matter said a consortium of Advent and Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of the company.
Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -3% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.04 to $3.09, weaker than the consensus of $3.15.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down more than -3% after reporting a Q2 gross margin of 39.1%, below the consensus of 39.2%.
Earnings Reports (8/28/2026)
Domo Inc (DOMO), Hub Group Inc (HUBG), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), SR Bancorp Inc (SRBK).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart

Stocks Rally as Fed Chair Warsh Vows to Tackle Inflation

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.17% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.18%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.10%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.20%.
Stock indices are mixed today, with the S&P 500 climbing to a 1-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials rising to a 2-week high. Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh’s address to the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this morning. Markets are looking at Warsh’s comments for clarity on the economic outlook and the Fed’s strategy for bringing inflation back to target. Marvell Technology is down more than -7%, leading chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks lower and weighing on the Nasdaq 100, after the company forecast Q3 adjusted gross margin below consensus.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Today’s US economic is negative for stocks after the Aug MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -10.5 to 47.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 57.9 and the steepest pace of contraction in 8 months.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down more than -1% today on signs of larger oil supplies leaving the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15 million to 16 million bpd, about two-thirds of pre-war levels. Crude prices also weakened today on reports that Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, which could increase the chances of a price war as the remaining members of the cartel compete with one another for customers and market share.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 486 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data.
The markets are discounting a 36% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.82%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.41%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) are down by -2 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.4 bp to 4.680%. Position squaring and long liquidation are pressuring T-note prices ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s address at the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming later today.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 15-year high of 3.286% and is up +1.2 bp to 3.265%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.3 bp to 5.043%.
The Eurozone Aug economic confidence index rose +1.3 to a 7-month high of 98.4, stronger than expectations of 97.5.
Markets are discounting a 97% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, led by a -7% decline in Marvell Technology (MRVL) after it forecast Q3 adjusted gross margin of 57.5% to 58.5%, the midpoint below the consensus of 58.4%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closed up more than +1%. Also, ARM Holdings (ARM) is down more than -2%, and Lam Research (LRCX), Sandisk (SNDK), Micron Technology (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Analog Devices (ADI), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%.
Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, led by a -4% fall in SentinelOne (S) after forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of 30 cents to 32 cents, below the consensus of 35 cents. Also, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -4%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is down more than -3%. In addition, Okta (OKTA), Fortinet (FTNT), Zscaler (ZS), and Cloudflare (NET) are down more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are retreating today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%. Iren Limited (IREN) is down more than -7%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -4%. Also, Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase Global (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -1%.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after people with knowledge of the matter said a consortium of Advent and Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of the company.
Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -5% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.04 to $3.09, weaker than the consensus of $3.15.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down more than -4% after reporting a Q2 gross margin of 39.1%, below the consensus of 39.2%.
Elastic NV (ESTC) is up more than +23% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, stronger than the consensus of 59 cents, and raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 from a previous forecast of $3.21 to $3.29, above the consensus of $3.24.
Gap (GAP) is up more than +14% after raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.35 to $2.45 from a previous forecast of $2.30 to $2.40.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is up more than +9% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.17 billion, better than the consensus of $1.11 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.17 billion.
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is up more than +2% after a Netflix preview of the company’s new Grand Theft Auto VI video game drew positive reviews.
Earnings Reports (8/28/2026)
Domo Inc (DOMO), Hub Group Inc (HUBG), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), SR Bancorp Inc (SRBK).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Stocks Mixed Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh

Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM used its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026earnings callto emphasize growth, tighter execution and a wider product roadmap after what CEO Max Levchin called the company’s most profitable quarter ever, excluding a tax allowance release. The quarter ended on June 30, 2026.
The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $4.62, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33. Revenues of $1.17 billion surpassed the consensus mark of $1.10 billion.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
AFRM Sets the Fiscal 2027 Profitability Tone
Chief Financial Officer Rob O’Hare said that fiscal 2027 revenue less transaction costs should reflect take rates broadly consistent with fiscal 2026, supported by current funding costs and a similar funding mix.
Management’s outlook implies a 4.16% revenue-less-transaction-costs rate for fiscal 2027, above the 3.25%-4% midterm range referenced during the Q&A. O’Hare also expects only a slight shift toward interest-bearing loans.
On a GAAP EPS basis, O’Hare stopped short of a precise forecast. He reiterated a mid-to-high-20% run-rate tax rate while cautioning that accounting and stock-compensation effects can create volatility.
Affirm Pushes Card and In-Store Expansion
Levchin, founder, CEO and chairman, said that in-store commerce remains a major product opportunity, but the experience requires more work around connectivity, point-of-sale systems and transaction adjustments than online checkout.
He said that the company is developing in-store features intended to deliver more value despite added approval steps, with new ideas expected in coming quarters. E-commerce expansion remains a parallel priority.
Affirm Card is another focus. Levchin said that card users generate about twice the usage of typical customers, while card attachment stands at 19% of active users. Management plans card-specific features to lift both adoption and engagement.
AFRM Sees More Merchant Greenfield
A Redburn analyst pressed management on why Affirm remains available at only a portion of major e-commerce merchants despite broader payment-platform integrations. Levchin framed the gap as an opportunity rather than a sales constraint.
He said that large merchants often face long implementation cycles because legacy systems require significant modifications. That limits how quickly new checkout options can be added even when merchants are receptive.
Levchin also emphasized network effects. He said that adding consumers and merchants should make the platform more valuable to both sides, reinforcing Affirm’s long-term focus on network scale rather than short-term product shifts.
Affirm Keeps Credit Discipline Central
A Wells Fargo analyst asked whether resilient consumer performance creates room to loosen underwriting. Levchin rejected the idea of treating credit policy as a single broad lever.
He said Affirm makes roughly 100 million transaction-level credit decisions per quarter and continually adjusts policy across consumers, merchants and transaction classes. Credit targets remain an input to growth rather than an output.
Levchin added that management would slow growth before accepting a meaningful credit disturbance. O’Hare separately said that current consumer-credit performance does not give management pause in its fiscal 2027 assumptions.
AFRM Builds U.K. and Edge Opportunities
Levchin described early U.K. performance as solid, citing positive merchant feedback and consumer receptivity. He also said that management had not observed a notable competitive response from incumbents so far.
Affirm Edge is moving more deliberately. Levchin said that bank partners face regulatory and implementation requirements, while Affirm is still completing parts of the technology needed for partner-controlled financing programs.
He expects the first launches to require close support and said that the company will prioritize execution quality over speed. Affirm Money Account is also being developed as a first-party model for the Edge experience.
Affirm Keeps Its Long-Term Product Focus
Levchin said that his expanded product focus will increasingly target initiatives that may not contribute until fiscal 2028, fiscal 2029 and beyond. The current outlook instead reflects products already operating and generating profits.
Management’s call tone combined confidence in the existing network with restraint around newer initiatives. The company is pushing merchant coverage, card usage, international growth and bank partnerships without building near-term guidance around unproven products.
What AFRM’s Zacks Signals Indicate
Presently, AFRM carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), alongside a Value Score of D, a Growth Score of A, a Momentum Score of A and a VGM Score of B. The Style Score framework treats A and B readings as stronger, while D is less favorable. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Growth, Momentum and VGM scores therefore provide stronger style signals than Value, but the Zacks Rank remains the primary indicator in the framework. The Zacks Rank can change as analyst earnings estimates are revised after the newly reported results.
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Affirm Q4 Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Product Expansion

Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM recently expanded its partnership with Shopify by launching Shop Pay Installments in Australia. The service is powered exclusively by Affirm and sits inside Shopify’s Shop Pay checkout. Affirm makes a real-time underwriting decision on every transaction and does not charge late fees, account fees or compounding interest. The launch marks the company’s return to Australia after it wound down operations there in 2023 as part of a broader effort to focus on growth and profitability.
The re-entry gives Affirm access to Shopify’s Australian merchant base while advancing a broader global partnership already spanning the United States, Canada and the U.K., with further expansion planned across Western Europe. AFRM can help merchants boost conversions and basket sizes by making larger purchases easier for customers to manage.
Shop Pay has more than 250 million buyers globally, while over 90% of Affirm purchases in North America come from repeat customers. That creates a large channel and strengthens Affirm’s international expansion opportunity over time.
The Australian rollout is expected to add GMV and transaction-driven revenue as adoption builds, while also widening Affirm’s merchant network. In fourth quarter fiscal 2026, GMV jumped 36% to $14.1 billion, revenues rose 33% to $1.17 billion and revenue less transaction costs increased 39% to $589 million.
Active consumers climbed 21% to 27.8 million, while transaction per active consumer grew 20%, giving Affirm a larger base for international growth and recurring transaction volume across new markets over time. Also, active merchant count surged 51% to 571,000 as of June 30, 2026.
How Are Peers Placed?
Affirm is going back to a competitive Australian BNPL market, where several companies already have established positions. PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL has considerable reach through Pay in 4. PayPal says the product is available across more than 9 million active Australian PayPal accounts, while its 2025 survey showed usage among 51% of Australian BNPL users, up from 45% a year earlier.
Meanwhile, Block, Inc. XYZ is one of the strongest competitors through Afterpay, which originated in Australia. Afterpay currently cites about 4.4 million active consumers in Australia and New Zealand. PayPal’s 2025 Australian survey found that 78% of Australian BNPL users had used Afterpay in the prior six months.
Affirm’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Affirm have gained 4.1% year to date, outperforming the broader industry but trailing the S&P 500 Index.
Affirm’s YTD Price Performance
From a valuation standpoint, Affirm trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 41.42X, up from the industry average of 27.93X. AFRM carries a Value Score of D.
It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 379.4%.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Is Affirm's Australia Comeback a Meaningful Growth Catalyst?

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) came out with quarterly earnings of $4.62 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.2 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1,300.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this operator of digital commerce platform would post earnings of $0.17 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.3, delivering a surprise of +76.47%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Affirm Holdings, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry, posted revenues of $1.17 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.23%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $876.42 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Affirm Holdings shares have added about 2.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.1%.
What's Next for Affirm Holdings?
While Affirm Holdings has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Affirm Holdings was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.33 on $1.16 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.73 on $5.35 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Software is currently in the top 35% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, ServiceTitan Inc. (TTAN), has yet to report results for the quarter ended July 2026. The results are expected to be released on September 8.
This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +9.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
ServiceTitan Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $285.14 million, up 17.8% from the year-ago quarter.
Should You Invest in Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)?
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