Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples, household products, bulk foods, and vitamins and dietary supplements, as well as organic eggs, organic flavored coffee, and organic mustard; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide name-brand supplements, as well as private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers; and books and handouts. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark, as well as Vitamin Cottage Natural Grocers and Health Hotline trademarks. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Shareholders of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Inc (Symbol: NGVC) looking to boost their income beyond the stock's 1.1% annualized dividend yield can sell the March 2025 covered call at the $45 strike and collect the premium based on the $3.40 bid, which annualizes to an additional 28.7% rate of return against the current stock price (at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost), for a total of 29.8% annualized rate in the scenario where the stock is not called away. Any upside above $45 would be lost if the stock rises there and is called away, but NGVC shares would have to advance 2.9% from current levels for that to happen, meaning that in the scenario where the stock is called, the shareholder has earned a 10.7% return from this trading level, in addition to any dividends collected before the stock was called.
In general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Inc, looking at the dividend history chart for NGVC below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 1.1% annualized dividend yield.
Below is a chart showing NGVC's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $45 strike highlighted in red:
The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the March 2025 covered call at the $45 strike gives good reward for the risk of having given away the upside beyond $45. (Do most options expire worthless? This and six other common options myths debunked). We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Inc (considering the last 251 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $44.11) to be 48%. For other call options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the NGVC Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.
In mid-afternoon trading on Thursday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 948,870 contracts, with call volume at 2.22M, for a put:call ratio of 0.43 so far for the day. Compared to the long-term median put:call ratio of .65, that represents very high call volume relative to puts; in other words, buyers are preferring calls in options trading so far today. Find out which 15 call and put options traders are talking about today.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

YieldBoost NGVC To 29.8% Using Options

The following are today's upgrades for Validea's Price/Sales Investor model based on the published strategy of Kenneth Fisher. This value strategy rewards stocks with low P/S ratios, long-term profit growth, strong free cash flow and consistent profit margins.
NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES INC. (NPK) is a small-cap growth stock in the Aerospace & Defense industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 58% to 80% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: National Presto Industries, Inc. is engaged in various business segments, which includes Housewares/Small Appliance, Defense and Safety. The Housewares/Small Appliance segment designs, markets and distributes housewares and small electrical appliances, including pressure cookers and canners, kitchen electrics, and comfort appliances. The Defense segment manufactures 40-millimeter (mm) ammunition, precision mechanical and electro-mechanical assemblies, medium caliber cartridge cases and metal parts; performs Load, Assemble and Pack (LAP) operations on ordnance-related products primarily for the United States Government and prime contractors, and manufactures detonators, booster pellets, release cartridges, lead azide and others. The Safety segment offers systems that provide early warning of conditions that could ultimately lead to significant losses and also offers carbon monoxide alarms with large digital displays and an array of voice messages that clearly inform of incipient danger.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
PASS
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
PASS
Detailed Analysis of NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES INC.
NPK Guru Analysis
NPK Fundamental Analysis
DUCOMMUN INC (DCO) is a small-cap growth stock in the Aerospace & Defense industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 40% to 70% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: Ducommun Incorporated provides value-added manufacturing solutions to customers in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets. It operates through two segments: Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. The Electronic Systems segment designs, engineers and manufactures high-reliability electronic and electromechanical products used in worldwide technology-driven markets, including aerospace and defense and industrial end-use markets. Electronic Systems product offerings primarily range from prototype development to complex assemblies. The Structural Systems segment designs, engineers and manufactures large, complex contoured aerostructure components and assemblies and supplies composite and metal bonded structures and assemblies. Structural Systems products are primarily used on commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, and military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft. Its products are used in heavy industrial manufacturing systems and certain medical applications.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
FAIL
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
PASS
Detailed Analysis of DUCOMMUN INC
DCO Guru Analysis
DCO Fundamental Analysis
BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC (BH.A) is a small-cap growth stock in the Restaurants industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 68% to 90% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: Biglari Holdings Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries engaged in a number of diverse business activities, including property and casualty insurance, licensing and media, restaurants, and oil and gas. The Company's restaurant operations are conducted through two subsidiaries: Steak n Shake Inc. (Steak n Shake) and Western Sizzlin Corporation (Western Sizzlin) for a combined 492 units. Its insurance activities are conducted through two insurance entities, First Guard Insurance Company and its affiliated agency, 1st Guard Corporation (First Guard), and Southern Pioneer Property & Casualty Insurance Company and its affiliated agency, Southern Pioneer Insurance Agency, Inc. (Southern Pioneer). Its insurance businesses provide insurance of property and casualty. The Company's oil and gas operations are conducted through two entities, Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (Abraxas Petroleum) and Southern Oil Company (Southern Oil). Abraxas Petroleum operates oil and natural gas wells.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
PASS
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
PASS
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
PASS
Detailed Analysis of BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC
BH.A Guru Analysis
LEGALZOOM.COM INC (LZ) is a small-cap growth stock in the Business Services industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 58% to 70% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: LegalZoom.com, Inc. provides an online platform for business formation in the United States. The Company is a business advisor, supporting the needs of a new business throughout its lifecycle. Its platform includes professional expertise and other products, both legal and non-legal, to meet the needs of small businesses. It delivers comprehensive legal, tax, accounting and compliance products and expertise to small business owners and their families. Its offerings include ongoing compliance and tax advice and filings, business licenses, accounting, virtual mailbox and e-signature solutions, trademark filings, and estate plans. Additionally, it has insights into its customers and leverages its offerings as a channel to introduce small businesses to brands in its partner ecosystem. Its transaction products for small businesses include business formation, intellectual property, and tax services. Its transaction products for consumers include consumer, estate planning and other.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
PASS
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
FAIL
Detailed Analysis of LEGALZOOM.COM INC
LZ Guru Analysis
LZ Fundamental Analysis
NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE INC (NGVC) is a small-cap growth stock in the Retail (Grocery) industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 50% to 80% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. is a specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries, body care products, and dietary supplements. In the Company's grocery departments, it only sells United States Department of Agriculture certified organic produce and does not approve for sale grocery products that contain artificial colors, flavors, preservatives or sweeteners or partially hydrogenated or hydrogenated oils. Its grocery product categories include Natural Grocers brand products; dry, frozen and canned groceries; meats and seafood; dairy products, and dairy substitutes and eggs. It sells a wide selection of private label repackaged bulk products. Its dietary supplement department sells name-brand supplements and a line of Natural Grocers brand private label dietary supplements. It offers different formulations and potencies for each type of product. It offers natural pet care and food products, and household and general merchandise. It has around 167 stores in 21 states.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
PASS
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
FAIL
Detailed Analysis of NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE INC
NGVC Guru Analysis
NGVC Fundamental Analysis
SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS INC (SPB) is a mid-cap growth stock in the Appliance & Tool industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 40% to 70% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. is a diversified global branded consumer products and home essentials company. The Company is a supplier of specialty pet supplies, lawn and garden and home pest control products, personal insect repellents, shaving and grooming products, personal care products, and small household appliances. Its segments include Home and Personal Care (HPC), Global Pet Care (GPC), and Home and Garden (H&G). The HPC segment consists of its global small kitchen and personal care appliance businesses. The GPC segment consists of its global pet care business. The H&G segment consists of home and garden, insect control, and cleaning products businesses. It offers a portfolio of brands including Tetra, DreamBone, SmartBones, Nature's Miracle, 8-in-1, FURminator, Healthy-Hide, Good Boy, Meowee! and others. It manufactures and distributes its products globally in North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA), Latin America (LATAM), and Asia-Pacific (APAC) regions.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
FAIL
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
PASS
Detailed Analysis of SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS INC
SPB Guru Analysis
SPB Fundamental Analysis
BOWMAN CONSULTING GROUP LTD (BWMN) is a small-cap growth stock in the Construction Services industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 50% to 70% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. is a national engineering services company engaged in delivering infrastructure solutions to customers who own, develop, and maintain the built environment. It provides a variety of planning, engineering, geospatial, construction management, commissioning, environmental consulting, land procurement and other technical services to customers operating in a diverse set of regulated end markets. It works as both a prime and sub-consultant for a broad base of public and private sector customers that generally operate in regulated environments. Its public sector assignments originate from customers that are transportation departments, utilities, government agencies (federal, state, and local), military branches, school systems, water authorities and other general infrastructure operators. Its private sector customers include owners and operators from multiple industries, such as investor-owned utilities, participants in the renewable energy and others.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
PASS
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
FAIL
Detailed Analysis of BOWMAN CONSULTING GROUP LTD
BWMN Guru Analysis
BWMN Fundamental Analysis
FIGS INC (FIGS) is a small-cap growth stock in the Apparel/Accessories industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Kenneth Fisher changed from 58% to 70% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: FIGS, Inc. operates as a direct-to-consumer healthcare apparel and lifestyle brand. The Company sells products designed to serve the particular needs of healthcare professionals primarily through its direct-to-consumer (DTC) digital platform, consisting of its Website, mobile app and B2B business (TEAMS). Its offerings include scrubwear and non-scrubwear, such as outerwear, underscrubs, footwear, compression socks, lab coats, loungewear, and other apparel. Its non-scrubwear products are designed as an integrated system that complements its scrubwear and are comprised of base layer and outer layer products. Its underscrubs include sports bras, performance leggings, performance tops and super-soft pima cotton tops. Its under underscrubs include several styles of underwear. Its outer layer products include footwear, lab coats, and a variety of vests, jackets, and fleeces. It also offers necessities, such as scrub caps, lanyards, badge reels, tote bags, baseball caps and beanies.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
PASS
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:
PASS
PRICE/SALES RATIO:
FAIL
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE:
FAIL
FREE CASH PER SHARE:
PASS
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:
FAIL
Detailed Analysis of FIGS INC
FIGS Guru Analysis
FIGS Fundamental Analysis
Kenneth Fisher Portfolio
About Kenneth Fisher: The son of Philip Fisher, who is considered the "Father of Growth Investing", Kenneth Fisher is a money manager, bestselling author, and longtime Forbes columnist. The younger Fisher wowed Wall Street in the mid-1980s when his book Super Stocks first popularized the idea of using the price/sales ratio (PSR) as a means of identifying attractive stocks. According to his alma mater, Humboldt State University, Fisher is also one of the world's foremost experts on 19th century logging. Appropriately, Fisher's firm, Fisher Investments, is located in a lush forest preserve in Woodside, California, where the contrarian-minded Fisher says he and his employees can get away from Wall Street groupthink.
About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Validea Kenneth Fisher Strategy Daily Upgrade Report - 8/13/2024

In trading on Tuesday, airlines shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 2.7%. Leading the group were shares of Jetblue Airways, up about 19.2% and shares of Spirit Airlines up about 6.2% on the day.
Also showing relative strength are grocery & drug stores shares, up on the day by about 2.3% as a group, led by Sprouts Farmers Market, trading up by about 15.2% and Natural Grocers BY Vitamin Cottage, trading up by about 4.7% on Tuesday.
VIDEO: Tuesday Sector Leaders: Airlines, Grocery & Drug Stores
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Tuesday Sector Leaders: Airlines, Grocery & Drug Stores

The following are today's upgrades for Validea's Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Martin Zweig. This strategy looks for growth stocks with persistent accelerating earnings and sales growth, reasonable valuations and low debt.
NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE INC (NGVC) is a small-cap growth stock in the Retail (Grocery) industry. The rating according to our strategy based on Martin Zweig changed from 69% to 85% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
Company Description: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. is a specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries, body care products, and dietary supplements. In the Company's grocery departments, it only sells United States Department of Agriculture certified organic produce and does not approve for sale grocery products that contain artificial colors, flavors, preservatives or sweeteners or partially hydrogenated or hydrogenated oils. Its grocery product categories include Natural Grocers brand products; dry, frozen and canned groceries; meats and seafood; dairy products, and dairy substitutes and eggs. It sells a wide selection of private label repackaged bulk products. Its dietary supplement department sells name-brand supplements and a line of Natural Grocers brand private label dietary supplements. It offers different formulations and potencies for each type of product. It offers natural pet care and food products, and household and general merchandise. It has around 167 stores in 21 states.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
Detailed Analysis of NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE INC
About Martin Zweig: During the 15 years that it was monitored, Zweig's stock recommendation newsletter returned an average of 15.9 percent per year, during which time it was ranked number one based on risk-adjusted returns by Hulbert Financial Digest. Zweig has managed both mutual and hedge funds during his career, and he's put the fortune he's compiled to some interesting uses. He has owned what Forbes reported was the most expensive apartment in New York, a $70 million penthouse that sits atop Manhattan's Pierre Hotel, and he is a collector of all sorts of pop culture and historical memorabilia -- among his purchases are the gun used by Clint Eastwood in "Dirty Harry", a stock certificate signed by Commodore Vanderbilt, and even two old-fashioned gas pumps similar to those he'd seen at a nearby gas station while growing up in Cleveland, according to published reports.
About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Validea Martin Zweig Strategy Daily Upgrade Report - 5/21/2024

In trading on Tuesday, grocery & drug stores shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 2.2%. Leading the group were shares of Krispy Kreme, up about 29.5% and shares of Natural Grocers BY Vitamin Cottage up about 9.2% on the day.
Also showing relative strength are diagnostics shares, up on the day by about 1.4% as a group, led by Cryo-cell International, trading higher by about 11.7% and Volitionrx, trading higher by about 9.7% on Tuesday.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Tuesday Sector Leaders: Grocery & Drug Stores, Diagnostics

This morning a "Potential Dividend Run Alert" went out for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE: NGVC), at our DividendChannel.com Dividend Alerts service (a free email alerts feature). Let's look at the situation in greater detail, shall we?
First of all, what is a "Dividend Run" anyway? This is an interesting concept which we first learned about at a past ValueForum conference. And to best explain the concept, we need to start with the expected behavior of a stock on its ex-dividend date.
For anyone unfamiliar with the term, the ex-dividend date marks the trading day when any buyer of the stock is no longer entitled to the referenced dividend — in other words, to be eligible to receive the dividend in question, one would have had to purchase their shares before the ex-dividend date.
All else equal, the stock price would be expected to drop by the dividend amount on that ex-date (remember, that's "all else equal" and naturally other factors will drive stocks higher/lower on any given day). But think about it: if a buyer is entitled to a 0.10 dividend before ex-date, but no longer entitled to that amount on or after ex-date, then this drop makes perfect sense! Because if the shares didn't drop by that same 0.10 the next day, then effectively, buyers would effectively be paying 0.10 more for the same share of stock.
But now think about this: if a stock is expected to drop by the dividend amount (all else equal) on ex-date, then in turn, shouldn't that stock be expected to rise sometime ahead of a dividend? After all, if a dividend-paying stock didn't ever rise and only fell on each and every ex-date, then eventually after enough dividend payments those shares would have fallen to zero. And that wouldn't make any sense for a company continually earning money and paying dividends. So indeed, "sometime" before a given dividend, there should be sort of a built-in "pressure" for a stock to gradually rise in expectation of that next cash dividend... in other words: pressure for the stock to have a potential Dividend Run.
And notice we put the word "sometime" in quotes in that last sentence, because there are differing views among different dividend investors about timeframe when it comes to capturing Dividend Run effects. Some like to invest (and then also to sell) on specific target dates; others like to employ some form of dollar cost averaging. Some like to invest shortly before ex-div, hold for the dividend, and then sell on or after ex-date (having actually capturing the dividend / received the income). Others like to sell the day before ex-date (the last possible day where the buyer of the shares will still be "paying for" the upcoming dividend) with the idea to try and maximize capital gain. In this capital-gain-focused scenario, one common timeframe we've seen discussed, is to buy about two weeks (ten trading days) prior to the targeted sale date.
For example, consider the 1.1/share NGVC dividend that went "ex-dividend" on 11/24/23. On the prior trading day — the last day where a seller knows that the buyer of their shares will be expecting that dividend amount — shares of NGVC closed at 17.21. And two weeks (ten trading days) prior to that, on 11/08/23, shares closed at a price of 12.84. That means that in the final two-week run-up to the 1.1 dividend, NGVC gained 4.37 in price.
Looking back at the last four dividends paid by NGVC, this strategy would have captured a capital gain in excess of the dividend 3 out of 4 times, with a "Divvy Run" total of +5.54 in capital gains. Incidentally, that exceeds the sum total dividend amounts across those last four dividends, of 1.40. Here's the data:
11/24/23
1.1
11/08/23
12.84
11/22/23
17.21
+4.37
08/25/23
0.1
08/10/23
13.12
08/24/23
12.85
-0.27
05/26/23
0.1
05/11/23
11.02
05/25/23
11.62
+0.60
02/24/23
0.1
02/08/23
10.29
02/23/23
11.13
+0.84
Div Total:
1.40
"Divvy Run" Total:
+5.54
In about two weeks from now, Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE: NGVC) will go ex-dividend for its latest dividend of 0.10/share. Will Dividend Run history repeat itself?
Upcoming Dividend: 0.10/share
Ex-Div Date: 03/01/24
Payment Date: 03/20/24
Dividend Frequency: Quarterly
Full NGVC Dividend History »
As the saying goes, past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. But one thing's for sure: for those investors who count Dividend Runs among the tools in their arsenal, NGVC is a good dividend stock to know about and have on your radar screen with its implied annualized yield of 2.61%.
Stay tuned for future Dividend Run candidates, and if you'd like to receive email alerts right into your inbox, enroll in our free Dividend Alerts feature, courtesy of DividendChannel.com.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Upcoming Dividend Run For NGVC?

Shares of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE: NGVC) soared 15.8% today after the organic grocery chain delivered strong quarterly results.
The sources of Natural Grocers' massive earnings beat
For its fiscal first-quarter 2024 ended Dec. 31, 2023, Natural Grocers' net sales grew 7.6% year over year to $301.8 million, including a 6.2% increase in daily-average comparable-store sales. Net income climbed nearly 80% to $0.34 per share -- trouncing expectations for earnings of $0.19 per share -- helped by a combination of sales growth, pricing initiatives, and effective operating-expense management.
"Our differentiated offering of carefully vetted natural and organic products, and compelling value proposition, continue to resonate with today's health-conscious consumers and distinguish us in the marketplace," stated Natural Grocers Co-President Kemper Isley.
What's next for Natural Grocers stock?
For the full fiscal-year 2024, Natural Grocers also raised its outlook to call for daily-average comparable-store sales growth of 3% to 5% (up from 2% to 4% growth previously), which should translate to full-year earnings per share of $1.02 to $1.12 (increased from prior guidance for a range of $1 to $1.10). Natural Grocers continues to expect to open four to six new stores this fiscal year, while remodeling or relocating four to six existing locations.
In the end, this was a straightforward beat-and-raise performance that left little room for bearish traders to argue. Even with shares of Natural Grocers up more than 40% in the year leading up to this report, the stock is understandably rallying in response.
Should you invest $1,000 in Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage right now?
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Steve Symington has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Why Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Stock Popped Today

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)
Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call
Company Participants
Jessica Thiessen - Vice President, Treasurer
Kemper Isely - Co-President
Todd Dissinger - Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Scott Mushkin - R5 Capital
Presentation
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers' Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder today's call is being recorded.
I'd like now to turn the conference over to Ms. Jessica Thiessen, Vice President, Treasurer for the Natural Grocers. Ms. Thiessen, you may begin.
Jessica Thiessen
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Kemper Isely, Co-President, and Todd Dissinger, Chief Financial Officer.
As a reminder, certain information provided during this conference call are forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors including the risks and uncertainties detailed in the company's most recently filed Forms 10-Q and 10-K.
The company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. Today's press release is available on the company's website and a recording of this call will be available on the website at investors.naturalgrocers.com.
Now, I will turn the call over to Kemper.
Kemper Isely
Thank you, Jessica, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter call. Today, I would like to highlight our financial results, outline several key drivers and accomplishments, and review our priorities and initiatives. Then Todd will discuss the fourth quarter results in greater detail and introduce our fiscal year 2024 guidance.
Our fiscal year 2023 daily average comparable store sales growth of 3.6% marked our 20th consecutive year of positive comparable store sales. We are proud of this extraordinary accomplishment. For the fiscal year, we achieved record diluted earnings per share of $1.02 and an 8.5% increase compared to last year.
Our fourth quarter sales trends were particularly strong. Daily average comparable store sales increased 6.9%, including a 3.6% increase in daily average transaction count. Moreover, the strength was broad-based across our product categories.
We attribute the strong fourth quarter and fiscal year sales to our differentiated business model and our responsiveness to the industry dynamics. We continue to be positively impacted by consumers prioritizing health and wellness.
Our customers appreciate our carefully vetted natural and organic product offering. We believe that our value proposition of high quality products at always affordable prices resonates with consumers in the current economic environment.
During fiscal 2023, our targeted marketing and promotions effectively drove customer engagement. Our percentage of sales on promotion has been relatively stable over recent quarters.
Further, our emphasis on the in-store shopping experience has been an important contributor to driving our strong traffic trends. I would like to recognize our operations, purchasing, and marketing teams for how they have nimbly transitioned from pandemic conditions to focus on core execution and navigating the current macro environment.
Our company's commitment to operational excellence and continuous improvement were instrumental in driving our strong fourth quarter and fiscal year performance. We developed and executed market-specific campaigns that accelerated sales growth in underperforming stores.
Effective pricing and promotional strategies contributed to the fiscal year gross margin improvement of 70 basis points. Higher labor efficiency partially offset increased wage rates and drove store productivity.
We prioritized driving engagement with our customers. During fiscal year 2023, we continued to enhance the personalization, frequency, and range of our {N}power rewards program offers.
In particular, we featured {N}power promotions with a focus on local store marketing. In August, we launched a National Grocers mobile app, which provides {N}power members with enhanced access to exclusive offers, digital coupons, recipes, and articles.
We believe these initiatives collectively drove the 17% increase in {N}power membership and were a major contributor to our broad-based sales growth. Our National Grocers brand products remain a key point of differentiation due to their emphasis on quality and price....
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