MP Materials Corp.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Быки в растерянности.

Strong index, significantly down. The bulls are confused.

Средний индекс, значительно вырос. Рынок на стороне быков.

Medium index, significantly up. The market is on the bulls' side.

Средний индекс, незначительно вырос. Отток средств из лонгов снизился, но остается значительным.

Medium index, slightly up. The outflow of funds from longs has decreased, but remains significant.

Key Points
MP Materials is attempting to build a rare-earth metals business in the United States.
It has an operating rare-earth metals mine and is building out its processing capabilities.
The company expects to start shipping rare-earth metal magnets to General Motors very soon.
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) was early to the rare-earth metals story, positioning the company well as the importance of these materials became more widely understood. In fact, rare-earth metals are so important that the U.S. government even stepped in to provide the company with financing. The company's next big step is coming in the fourth quarter, when it expects to start commercial shipments of rare-earth magnets to General Motors.
MP Materials is in the right place at the right time
The big problem with rare-earth metals is that much of the world's supply comes from China. China has proven more than happy to use access to rare-earth metals as a geopolitical bargaining chip. In fact, China's threats to limit supply led automakers to warn that they may be unable to produce enough vehicles in mid-2025. The problem, however, is much bigger than the auto sector.
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Rare-earth metals go into high-tech products from cars to cellphones to missile defense systems. That last one makes access to rare-earth metals an issue governments can't ignore and helps explain why MP Materials is so well positioned. It is building a rare-earth metals business in the United States, a politically and economically stable region that will attract customers from Western nations. Of course, the company will also be well-positioned to supply its home market, including the U.S. defense industry. This is why the U.S. government is helping to fund MP Materials.
That said, MP Materials is still a start-up company. In the second quarter of 2026, it lost $0.01 per share on an adjusted basis amid heavy capital investments in its business. To be fair, that was an improvement over the $0.13 per share loss in the same quarter of 2025. Notably, revenues increased 89% year over year in the quarter. There is material progress being made here.
The next big step is already taking shape
One of the key achievements in the second quarter was MP Materials' shipment of rare-earth magnets to General Motors (NYSE: GM) for testing. Suppliers are rigorously tested before they get approved by automakers, given how important safety is in the car industry. MP Materials expects to start commercial shipments in the fourth quarter of the year.
Being included in an automaker's supply chain is a very big deal. It basically means MP Materials could have a reliable customer for years to come. GM could be the foundation on which the company builds its customer base. The GM relationship could also help the company move from a money-losing start-up to a sustainably profitable business.
To be fair, GM isn't the only customer that MP Materials is working with. For example, in the second quarter earnings release, it announced an agreement with a "new American aerospace and defense customer." The company also highlighted efforts to court drone manufacturers, stating that it had "executed subscription agreements with multiple leading U.S. and allied customers." So there is more going on here than just GM. But GM will be a very important milestone from a business development perspective.
MP Materials' next step is really a leap
It is still fairly early in MP Materials' development as a business. So agreements are great, but the company really needs to prove that it can reliably supply customers with rare-earth metals. That's the test it is about to face with GM. If MP Materials passes this test, then it will also have proven to the market that the long-term investment opportunity here is real. That's way more valuable than what it will earn from GM.
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MP Materials Ships Its First Magnets to GM in Q4. This is What The Milestone Is Worth.

MP Materials MP is advancing its strategy to move beyond rare earth mining and processing into higher-value magnet manufacturing. During the second quarter of 2026, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors GM for in-vehicle qualification testing. MP expects to begin commercial shipments of magnets in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp.
The Magnetics segment represents the downstream magnet manufacturing and related operations of MP Materials. It includes the Independence Facility, where the company produces and sells magnetic precursor products and started manufacturing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
MP is constructing a second magnet manufacturing facility in Northlake, TX, known as the “10X Facility”. It is expected to boost MP's overall U.S. rare earth magnet production capacity to roughly 10,000 metric tons per year. The company is also extending its heavy rare earth elements refining capability at Mountain Pass, enabling a more complete domestic supply chain for permanent magnets.
The Magnetics segment generated $37.6 million in revenues in the first half of 2026, up 50% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $17.1 million from $8.6 million. Revenues had surged 306% year over year to $21.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, driven by increased production of magnetic precursor products. Segment adjusted EBITDA reached $9.6 million compared with $0.49 million in the year-ago quarter. In the second quarter, revenues declined 17% year over year to $16.5 million, while segment adjusted EBITDA fell 7% to $7.5 million.
The decline in second-quarter revenues reflected the startup of magnet production at the Independence Facility and its impact on the pricing mechanism for magnetic products. Therefore, the quarterly decline does not necessarily indicate weaker underlying demand for the company’s downstream business.
Notably, the Magnetics segment began generating revenues from magnetic precursor sales to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025. As of June 30, 2026, MP has collected $150 million in required prepayments for the sale of magnetic precursor products to GM under its long-term supply agreement. As of that date, the company had delivered $104.5 million of magnetic precursor products and the remaining delivery of $45.5 million will likely be made within one year. Once that is completed, MP does not expect additional precursor sales to GM, and instead plans to begin sales of finished magnets in 2026.
MP is also broadening its downstream opportunity through Project Swarm, an initiative with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. In addition, its partnership with Apple AAPL covering magnet recycling, production and joint development continues to progress.
The Magnetics segment has established meaningful revenues and profitability, but its next phase of growth will depend on customer qualification, commercial magnet shipments and the production ramp at Independence and 10X. Successful execution on these milestones could increasingly position downstream magnet manufacturing as a larger contributor to MP’s growth.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
MP Materials’ shares have declined 36.1% in a year against the industry’s 28.4% growth.
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 12.72X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.43X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at eight cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is 88 cents per share, indicating a 1,009% year-over-year improvement.
The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
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MP Materials' Magnetics Segment: Can It Unlock the Next Growth Phase?

Energy Fuels Inc. UUUU and MP Materials MP are US-based critical-minerals companies seeking to strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on China.
Energy Fuels is a leading U.S. producer of uranium and owns the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only fully licensed conventional uranium mill operating in the United States. The facility also produces rare earth element (REE) products and evaluates medical isotope recovery for emerging cancer therapies. MP Materials is the largest rare-earth producer in the Western Hemisphere. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, the only rare-earth mine and processing site of scale in North America.
REEs are used in a variety of energy, advanced and defense technologies, including powerful magnets used in EVs and hybrid EVs, advanced robotics, wind energy and several defense technologies. With demand expected to rise significantly, both companies are expanding their positions across the rare-earth value chain.
For investors seeking to capitalize on this growth, the question is which stock they should put their bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges for UUUU and MP.
The Case for Energy Fuels
Energy Fuels has produced nearly two-thirds of all uranium in the United States since 2017 and continues to scale uranium production as well as develop REE capabilities.
In the second quarter of 2026, Energy Fuels mined ore containing 315,000 pounds of uranium and produced 865,000 pounds of finished uranium. This takes the total to 1.7 million pounds of finished uranium for the first half, already exceeding the low end of its full-year guidance of 1.5-2.5 million pounds.
Energy Fuels is also making progress in rare earths. In March 2026, the company successfully produced terbium (Tb) oxide at pilot scale, becoming the first U.S. company in decades to achieve the milestone. In August, UUUU announced that its terbium oxide had been qualified by one of the world's largest rare-earth permanent magnet manufacturers outside China.
Energy Fuels’ second-quarter revenues jumped 496% year over year to $25.1 million, driven by higher uranium sales volumes and realized prices. The company sold 310,000 pounds of uranium at an average realized price of $80.48 per pound compared with 50,000 pounds at $77 per pound in the year-ago quarter.
Costs applicable to revenues surged 192% to $10.7 million on higher uranium volumes sold, partially offset by lower weighted average cost per pound of uranium sold. Standby costs surged 61% year over year due to higher permitting activities at Roca Honda and Whirlwind and increased maintenance activities at Nichols Ranch. Selling, general and administration were up 31% year over year, reflecting increases in general headcount, salaries and benefits. UUUU also incurred $10.7 million in transaction and integration costs. The company reported a net loss of 13 cents per share in the quarter, wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of 10 cents per share.
UUUU expects to mine 2-2.5 million pounds of contained uranium in 2026 and sell 1.5-2 million pounds through spot and contracted transactions. The company has six uranium supply contracts with U.S. nuclear utilities with deliveries extending to 2032. As of June 30, 2026, contracted volumes totaled 3.20 million base pounds, with minimum and maximum deliveries of 2.77 million and 4.72 million pounds, respectively.
Energy Fuels continues to advance a deep pipeline of uranium projects. The Whirlwind mine and Nichols Ranch ISR project alone could add up to 500,000 pounds of annual uranium production within a year of a development decision. Other major projects, including Roca Honda, Bullfrog and Sheep Mountain, collectively contain nearly 70 million pounds of uranium resources.
On the rare-earth front, UUUU has begun an expansion of its White Mesa Mill to enable the large-scale production of heavy rare earth oxides. Its acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) adds the Korean Metals Plant in Ochang, South Korea, which has the current capacity to produce 1,300 tons of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) alloy annually. Expansion is underway to increase NdFeB alloy capacity at the Korean Metals Plant to 3,600 tons per year.
The plant also possesses commercial metallization capabilities for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) and is developing metallization capabilities for dysprosium (Dy) and Tb. This complements Energy Fuels' NdPr, Tb and Dy oxide production and expansion initiatives at its White Mesa Mill in Utah.
Energy Fuels is also seeking to move further downstream through its planned acquisition of permanent magnet manufacturer Vacuumschmelze (“VAC”), announced in June 2026. If completed, potentially as early as the first quarter of 2027, the deal would give UUUU exposure across a broader portion of the rare-earth value chain, from mineral resources and processing to finished magnetic products.
The Case for MP Materials
MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility, producing refined rare-earth products, concentrates and related materials. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing permanent magnets in December 2025.
Backed by government incentives, the company is constructing the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift its total U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons.
MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. NdPr production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improve.
MP Materials remains on track to begin producing Tb and Dy later this year, while first samarium production is targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer.
Meanwhile, MP is progressing with its magnet manufacturing operations. During the second quarter, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors Company GM for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp.
MP reported an 89% year-over-year increase in second-quarter 2026 revenues to $108.5 million. The company also recorded $17.58 million in income tied to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the U.S. Department of War (DoW). Cost of sales, however, increased 43.3% year over year, and selling, general and administrative expenses rose 28.2%. Start-up costs surged to $14.4 million from $0.76 million in the year-ago quarter as MP advanced initial magnet production. MP reported an adjusted loss of one cent per share in the second quarter of 2026, a significant improvement from the loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple Inc. AAPL on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance.
Meanwhile, construction of the 10X facility remains on track. The second U.S. rare earth magnet facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028 and produce approximately 7,000 metric tons of magnets annually. Combined with the 3,000-metric-ton capacity of the Independence facility, MP’s U.S. magnet capacity is expected to reach 10,000 metric tons annually.
How do Estimates Compare for UUUU & MP?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ 2026 earnings is pegged at a loss of 25 cents, narrower than the loss of 38 cents reported in 2025. The consensus estimate for UUUU’s earnings for 2027 is three cents per share.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at eight cents per share, indicating a solid improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is 88 cents per share, indicating a 1,009% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The earnings estimates for Energy Fuels for 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. The earnings estimates for MP Materials for both 2026 and 2027 have also moved down over the past 60 days. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UUUU & MP: Price Performance & Valuation
Energy Fuels stock has declined 24.9% year-to-date compared with MP Materials’ 35.5% drop.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 15.46X. MP Materials is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 12.26X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels or MP Materials: Which Stock is the Better Pick?
Energy Fuels and MP Materials offer different ways to participate in the development of a U.S.-centered rare-earth supply chain. MP Materials has a more concentrated rare-earth strategy, with operations spanning mining, processing and magnet manufacturing. Its rising NdPr production, planned heavy rare-earth output and expanding magnet capacity provide multiple potential growth avenues. At the same time, the company remains loss-making and faces elevated start-up costs and significant capital requirements as it builds out its downstream operations.
Energy Fuels offers greater commodity diversification through its established uranium business while simultaneously building a rare-earth platform. Its uranium production and long-term utility contracts provide an existing revenue base, while acquisitions could extend its rare-earth exposure from processing into metals, alloys and permanent magnets. However, these initiatives also increase integration and capital requirements, and the contribution from its broader rare-earth strategy is likely to develop over time.
Given the downward revisions to earnings estimates and the risks associated with their respective expansion plans, investors may prefer to wait for improved earnings visibility and clearer execution milestones before taking positions. Energy Fuels carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) while MP Materials currently holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Strong Sell).
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UUUU vs. MP: Which Rare Earth Stock is a Better Pick Now?

MP Materials (NYSE: MP), Energy Fuels (NYSEMKT: UUUU), and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) are competing for a bigger role in America's rare-earth supply chain. The bullish opportunity is moving downstream into processing and permanent magnets, where MP leads today, but its rivals could narrow the gap if ambitious expansion plans translate into qualified commercial output.
Stock prices used were the market prices of Aug. 31, 2026. The video was published on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Should you buy stock in MP Materials right now?
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Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
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3 Rare Earth Stocks Racing to Go Downstream, and Who's Ahead

Key Points
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth have distinct risk profiles and focus on different rare-earth magnets.
USA Rare Earth offers higher risk and potential reward than MP Materials.
A diversified approach may be best for exposure to the rare-earth sector.
It's MP Materials (NYSE: MP) versus USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) in the great debate over which is the leading rare-earth company that will solve the problem of securing a domestic supply. The two companies have key differences, which means they will work differently in your portfolio. Here's why, and a suggestion for how to invest in the sector.
The key differences between MP Materials and USA Rare Earth
Both companies have received substantive backing from the U.S. government, and understandably so. China dominates the rare-earth market, and given the critical importance of rare-earth magnets to the global economy, it's a matter of national security to ensure that the U.S. defense and manufacturing sectors have access to domestically produced, non-China-sourced rare-earth magnets.
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According to USA Rare Earth CFO William Steele, "China dominates well in excess of 90% of the market, in fact, up to 99% of certain rare-earth going forward." China has an even more dominant position in the heavy rare-earth elements (HREE), with USA Rare Earth CEO Barbara Humpton noting on a shareholder call in April: "Dysprosium and terbium generally represent 20% of global rare-earth volume, but over 90% of the value. And critically, China today processes nearly 100% of these heavy rare-earth."
All of which leads to the key differentiator between MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. The former focuses on light rare-earth elements (LREE) such as neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr). In contrast, USA Rare Earth focuses on heavy rare-earth elements such as dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb).
In general, LREEs are more abundant than HREEs, and the latter command much higher pricing. While China dominates both markets, it has a chokehold on the HREE market, as Humpton's comments above allude to. In addition, HREE magnets are more expensive and technically demanding to produce, and HREEs are also harder to source.
That makes USA Rare Earth arguably more strategically important than MP Materials, with greater upside potential, but it also makes it a far riskier stock in terms of operational execution.
MP Materials is more advanced in its business model
USA Rare Earth is also riskier: While both companies are pursuing a mine-to-magnet strategy, MP Materials is significantly more advanced. It already produces rare-earth magnets at its Fort Worth, Texas, facility and has two foundational customers: Apple and General Motors. In addition, its LREE-rich Mountain Pass is already operational and supplying elements. Furthermore, MP Materials has already begun construction of its new "10X" facility in Northlake, Texas. The facility is a key part of the company's growth plans, and also a cornerstone of the public-private partnership with the Department of Defense.
In contrast, USA Rare Earth entered magnet production in the second quarter of this year, with its first magnet sales expected by year-end. As for the "mine" part of the mine-to-magnet strategy, the company has secured a 100% ownership interest in the HREE-rich Round Top deposit in Texas. It is targeting commercial operations in late 2028.
The risks are reflected in valuations
In a nutshell, USA Rare Earth is a higher-risk, higher-return proposition than MP Materials, and that's reflected in the valuations implied by Wall Street analysts' estimates for the stocks. As you can see below, the additional risk at USA Rare Earth is reflected in its significantly lower valuation based on analyst consensus.
Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
MP Materials
N/A
65.8
42.6
31.4
23
USA Rare Earth
N/A
N/A
48.4
26.6
7.1
Note that these valuations project a lot into the future and assume both companies execute on their growth plans.
USA Rare Earth and MP Materials
The answer to the question in the headline is "no." However, that's not because MP Materials is a noticeably better investment than USA Rare Earth. Instead, it's a significantly different investment proposition that will suit more conservative investors. At the same time, USA Rare Earth offers greater upside potential to offset the significantly higher risk of ramping up HREE magnet production, commissioning Round Top, and developing customer relationships.
If forced to choose, I think USA Rare Earth is better on a risk/reward basis, but the best strategy for rare-earth bulls may well be to buy both in a diversified portfolio.
Should you buy stock in MP Materials right now?
Before you buy stock in MP Materials, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and MP Materials wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $417,413!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,341,294!*
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and MP Materials. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Should You Ignore MP Materials and Buy This Rare-Earth Stock Instead?

MP Materials MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 14.29X, significantly above the industry average of 1.43X. The stock carries a Value Score of F, suggesting it is expensive at current levels.
Among rare earth peers, USA Rare Earth, Inc. USAR and Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYSDY trade at considerably lower 8.31X and 9.43X, respectively.
MP Materials Stock Trails Industry Performance
MP Materials shares have declined 12.8% over the past six months against the industry’s 8.7% growth. The Zacks Basic Materials sector gained 3% while the S&P 500 rose 12.8%. Lynas Rare Earths and USA Rare Earth have declined 24.1% and 19.1%, respectively.
MP's 6-Month Performance Against Industry, Sector, S&P 500 & Peers
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock’s premium valuation appears difficult to justify given its recent underperformance. However, MP Materials is undergoing a significant transition toward higher-value rare earth products and domestic magnet production. Its latest financial results, production ramp-up, growth initiatives and execution risks provide important clues about whether the premium can be sustained.
MP Delivered Revenue Growth in Q2, Costs Remain Elevated
MP generated second-quarter 2026 total revenues of $108.5 million, up 89% year over year. The company also recognized $17.6 million in income related to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW).
Materials segment revenues surged 155% to $95.6 million, driven by higher NdPr sales volumes and pricing, although the absence of concentrate sales partly offset the gains. Magnetics segment revenues fell 17% to $16.5 million, as the start-up of magnet production and related pricing mechanisms weighed on results despite higher production of magnetic precursor products at the Independence facility.
Cost of sales climbed 43% due to higher sales volumes, while selling, general and administrative expenses rose 28% due to increased personnel costs. Start-up costs surged to $14 million from $0.76 million in the year-ago quarter due to the ramp-up of start-up activities for magnet production and chlor-alkali facilities, and costs associated with initial production of magnets at Independence.
Higher costs led to an operating loss of $32 million in the quarter, narrower than the loss of $43.9 million in the year-ago quarter. This was the 12th consecutive quarter of operating loss for the company, reflecting ongoing margin pressure as it continues transitioning toward higher-value separated rare earth products.
MP reported an adjusted loss of one cent per share in the second quarter of 2026, a significant improvement from the loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter.
MP Ramps Up NdPr and Advances Magnet Production
NdPr production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improve.
MP remains on track to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year and first samarium production is targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer.
Meanwhile, MP Materials is progressing with its magnet manufacturing operations. During the second quarter, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors Company GM for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp.
MP’s Earnings Estimates Trend Lower Cautious Investor Sentiment
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings stands at eight cents per share against a loss of 24 cents in 2025. The 2027 earnings estimate is currently pegged at 88 cents per share, implying growth of 1,009%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, the earnings outlook has weakened recently, with consensus estimates for both 2026 and 2027 revised downward over the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Capacity Expansion Creates Long-Term Growth Potential for MP
The company is expanding operations at its Independence facility and has begun construction of the 10X magnetics facility. Commissioning activities for scaled heavy rare earth separation are also expected to begin soon at Mountain Pass. 10X will significantly expand MP’s fully integrated U.S. rare-earth magnetics manufacturing platform, which already encompasses mining and refining, metallization and alloying, sintering, finished magnet production and closed-loop recycling. Once operational, the new campus is expected to contribute to the company’s total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare-earth magnets per year, advancing the nation’s ability to produce these strategic components domestically.
MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple AAPL on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance.
High Costs and Execution Risks Could Limit Near-Term Upside
Producing separated rare earth products and magnetic materials involves significantly higher costs than concentrate production due to additional processing requirements, chemical inputs, labor and maintenance. Cost of sales is thus expected to trend higher, reflecting increased sales of NdPr oxide and metal along with added costs associated with magnetic precursor products. Start-up costs are also likely to increase in the coming quarters.
Management expects near-term Magnetics results to be affected by the roll-off of precursor revenues, early magnet production scaling, customer testing milestones and continued investment in personnel and product development. Full-year 2026 capital expenditures are expected at $500-$600 million as 10X and other projects advance. These costs can keep profitability and free cash flow uneven until higher-value production reaches greater scale.
Execution also remains a key risk. MP is simultaneously commissioning its dysprosium and terbium circuit, progressing through customer qualification at Independence, preparing for commercial magnet shipments and constructing the 10X facility. Delays in commissioning, customer qualification, production yields or construction could push out anticipated revenue and cash-flow benefits.
Our Final Take on MP Stock
MP Materials has a compelling long-term growth story, supported by rising demand for domestically produced rare earth materials, an integrated business model and investments in U.S. magnet manufacturing. Successful execution of its expansion projects could strengthen its position in the domestic rare earth supply chain and improve its earnings profile over time.
MP continues to report operating losses, faces elevated costs and substantial capital requirements, while earnings estimates have moved lower. More importantly, the stock trades at a significant premium to both the industry and key rare earth peers despite underperforming the broader market and industry over the past six months. Investors may want to remain on the sidelines until the company demonstrates more consistent earnings improvement and better execution of its expansion plans.
MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
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MP Trades at a Premium Valuation: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Key Points
Reshoring often means replacing imported components or processing, not moving an entire factory back to the U.S.
MP Materials shows how reshoring can rebuild a critical domestic supply chain.
U.S. manufacturers still face a major price disadvantage, so investors should focus on whether reshoring actually translates into orders and earnings.
Reshoring has become an important theme in U.S. manufacturing. However, it does not simply mean moving an entire overseas factory back home.
Reshoring can also involve replacing imported components or processing with domestic capacity. The distinction changes which industrial stocks are positioned to benefit.
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Reshoring can happen inside the supply chain
According to the 2026 Reshoring Initiative survey, among surveyed contract manufacturers, 69% of reshoring cases involved customers switching component sourcing to the U.S. while assembly was already domestic.
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is a good example. The company is expanding rare-earth processing and magnet production in the U.S. The company's new 10X facility in Texas is expected to produce 7,000 metric tons of magnets annually once fully scaled. MP Materials expects to invest more than $1.25 billion in the project. The expansion is part of MP Materials' effort to build an end-to-end U.S. rare-earth magnet supply chain and reduce dependence on foreign production.
Government support also reduces some of the risk around this expansion. The Pentagon has agreed to cover the shortfall if benchmark prices for MP's key rare-earth materials fall below $110 per kilogram. The Pentagon has also guaranteed that 10X will generate at least $140 million of annual EBITDA once the facility reaches full production.
The economics must still work
Reshoring can reduce supply chain risks, but U.S. manufacturers still must compete on price. In the 2026 USA Reshoring survey, 94% of contract manufacturers said price was the main reason they lost orders to imports. Among those losing on price, half said the winning import bid was at least 30% lower.
Among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reporting impacts from reshoring, 70% cited faster speed to market, 65% better on-time delivery, and 60% logistics savings. However, investors should not assume reshoring interest means a factory-building boom. U.S. manufacturing construction spending fell from $250 billion annualized in September 2024 to about $170 billion in July 2026, down roughly 32%.
Hence, investors should assess whether reshoring is actually translating into more orders and stronger earnings.
Should you buy stock in MP Materials right now?
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What Does "Reshoring" Actually Mean for Industrial Investors?

Key Points
Government support and trade tensions boost the rare-earth sector's appeal, as the U.S. needs a domestic supply of rare-earth magnets.
MP is progressing on production and facility expansion plans.
Shares in rare-earth materials and magnets company MP Materials (NYSE: MP) rose by 32.3% in August, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The move comes in response to a positive second-quarter earnings report released early in the month and improving sentiment regarding the geostrategic importance of companies that can provide a domestic source of critical rare-earth materials.
Rare-earth companies found favor in August
A quick look at the stock's performance compared to its peer, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR), reveals that they both outperformed last month. One reason comes down to a series of tit-for-tat trade actions that took place during the month. While tariffs on polysilicon and pecans are unlikely to move markets, they represent a soft escalation ahead of a summit between Presidents Xi and Trump in late September.
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Such developments underline the strategic importance of the support the U.S government is giving MP Materials as it executes its mine-to-magnet business plan that will provide non-China sourced and domestically produced rare-earth magnets,
MP Materials is quietly executing its business plan
As previously discussed, buying stock in MP Materials implies a belief in the company's ability to execute its plan to ramp magnet production, build out a major new production facility, "10X," and overcome any potential regulatory and environmental hurdles at Mountain Pass (a rare-earth mine operated by MP Materials).
While the second quarter earnings didn't provide any definitive answers to those questions, they did demonstrate solid progress:
Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products production volume increased by 41% year-over-year to 840 tonnes, with sales volume increasing 127% to 1,006 metric tonnes.
$17.6 million in price protection agreement income illustrates the value in the 10-year price floor commitment put in place with MP Materials' public-private partnership with the Department of Defense last year.
Management confirmed that construction activity on 10X had already begun.
MP Materials' existing facility, Independence in Fort Worth, Texas, is "fully sold out between GM and Apple," according to CEO Jim Litinsky on the earnings call.
A significant reduction in adjusted net loss to $2.1 million from an adjusted loss of $21.4 million in the same quarter of 2025.
All told, MP Materials' second quarter indicates a company executing on its objectives while benefiting from ongoing government support that derisks its business plan.
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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MP Materials' Stock is Surging: Here's Why

MP Materials MP and NioCorp Developments Ltd. NB are two US-based companies expected to play key roles in establishing domestic critical-mineral supply chains and reducing dependence on foreign sources.
Las Vegas-based MP Materials is an established rare earth producer with integrated mining, processing and magnet manufacturing operations. It currently has a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion. Colorado-based NioCorp, in contrast, is a development-stage company advancing its Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project in Nebraska, with a market capitalization of roughly $600 million.
The key question is which stock to bet on, MP or NB. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improve.
MP Materials remains on track to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year, while first samarium production is targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer.
Meanwhile, MP is progressing with its magnet manufacturing operations. During the second quarter, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors Company GM for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp.
MP reported an 89% year-over-year increase in second-quarter 2026 revenues to $108.5 million. The company also recorded $17.58 million in income tied to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW). Cost of sales, however, increased 43.3% year over year, and selling, general and administrative expenses rose 28.2%. Start-up costs surged to $14.4 million from $0.76 million in the year-ago quarter as MP advanced initial magnet production.
The company reported an operating loss of $32 million, narrower than the loss of $43.9 million in the year-ago quarter. MP reported an adjusted loss of one cent per share in the second quarter of 2026, a significant improvement from the loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance.
Meanwhile, construction of the 10X facility remains on track. The second U.S. rare earth magnet facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028 and produce approximately 7,000 metric tons of magnets annually. Combined with the 3,000-metric-ton capacity of the Independence facility, MP’s U.S. magnet capacity is expected to reach 10,000 metric tons annually.
The Case for NioCorp
NioCorp’s primary focus is advancing the Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project toward commercial production. The company recently released an updated 2026 Feasibility Study for the Elk Creek project. The project is expected to produce eight products compared with three earlier. This includes ferroniobium, scandium trioxide, titanium tetrachloride and several rare earth oxide products, including NdPr, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, samarium-europium-gadolinium carbonate and heavy rare earth carbonate. The expanded product mix is expected to provide a more diversified revenue base and reduce dependence on any single commodity.
Over the projected 40-year mine life, the Elk Creek Project is projected to generate approximately $37.4 billion in life-of-mine revenues, average annual EBITDA of $608 million and average annual operating cash flow of $519 million. The study estimates an upfront capital requirement of approximately $1.85 billion.
NioCorp, being still in the development stage, has yet to generate revenues from mining operations. The company continues to incur operating expenses primarily related to costs incurred for the advancement of the Elk Creek Project and the activities necessary to support corporate and shareholder duties, resulting in losses.
In February 2026, NB commenced construction of the main underground portal for its Elk Creek Project, marking a shift from planning to pre-construction. NioCorp has raised more than $500 million since January 2025, has received a $10 million Pentagon Title III award and is under consideration by the U.S. Export-Import (EXIM) Bank for debt financing of up to 65% of the project’s capex costs. Notably, the completion of the 2026 Feasibility Study will satisfy a key EXIM Bank due diligence requirement.
On the commercial front, NioCorp has signed non-binding agreements aimed at establishing future markets for its planned output. These include a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT and a non-binding term sheet with Traxys to market and sell minerals from the Elk Creek Project.
These developments improve the project's strategic positioning, particularly as the United States seeks to reduce dependence on imported critical minerals. However, investors should note that Elk Creek remains a development-stage project, and its projected economics and production timelines are subject to financing, construction execution, commodity prices and other risks.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & NB?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at eight cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at 88 cents per share, implying 1,009% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NioCorp’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at a loss of 46 cents per share, wider than the loss of 35 cents in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate is at a loss of 32 cents per share.
Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Estimates for NioCorp’s fiscal 2026 have moved up in the past 60 days, while the estimates for fiscal 2027 have moved down. This is shown in the chart below.
MP vs. NB: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past year, MP Materials stock has declined 21.1% compared with NioCorp’s 10.2% fall.
MP Materials is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 5.11, while NioCorp is trading at a lower 1.38.
MP Materials or NioCorp: Which Stock is the Better Buy?
Both MP Materials and NioCorp stand to benefit from growing U.S. efforts to establish secure domestic supply chains for rare earths and other critical minerals.
MP Materials currently has a clear advantage in terms of operational maturity. Its integrated Mountain Pass operations, growing rare earth production, expanding magnet manufacturing capacity and strategic partnerships with customers and the U.S. government provide tangible growth opportunities. However, substantial investments in downstream expansion and production ramp-ups could continue to pressure near-term profitability.
NioCorp offers exposure to a broader portfolio of critical minerals and has made progress in advancing the Elk Creek Project. The updated feasibility study points to potentially attractive long-term economics, while government support and commercial discussions could strengthen the project's strategic importance. Nevertheless, the company faces significant execution and financing risks as it works to transition from development into construction and commercial production.
Given the downward revisions to earnings estimates and the risks associated with their respective expansion plans, investors may prefer to wait for improved earnings visibility and clearer execution milestones before taking positions. Both MP and NB currently carry a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
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MP vs. NB: Which Critical Minerals Stock is the Better Buy?

Key Points
China instituted new export restrictions in June that affected companies like USA Rare Earth and MP Materials.
Securing access to rare-earth minerals is a strategic priority for the U.S. and its allies.
Diversifying supply chains away from Chinese goods and services could ultimately benefit U.S. rare-earth stocks.
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China are central to the bull cases for stocks like USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) and MP Materials (NYSE: MP). China dominates theglobal marketfor the extraction and processing of rare-earth minerals, and the company has used its position in the sector as a key lever as it navigates increasingly adversarial relations with the U.S., Japan, and the European Union.
The U.S. and key allies have been making moves to reduce their dependence on Chinese rare-earth mineral supplies, but these initiatives are generally still in relatively early stages compared to what is needed. In June, China announced it was implementing export restrictions on the sale of goods and technologies to USA Rare Earth and MP Materials that could be used to support sourcing by foreign militaries.
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Could this actually be a bullish catalyst for U.S.-based rare-earth companies?
Securing access to rare-earth materials is crucial for the U.S. and its allies
While Chinese export restrictions could create moderate near-term headwinds for USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, both companies had already taken significant steps to diversify their supply chains away from relying on Chinese goods and services. In that regard, the export restrictions can be viewed as accelerating a shift that was already underway -- and as a development that could actually wind up being a positive long-term catalyst.
If relations between China and the U.S. and its allies continue to deteriorate and China further restrict access to rare-earth materials, it will become crucial to secure them from other sources. Removing supply chain reliance on Chinese goods and technologies reduces the potential for disruption as U.S.-based rare-earth mining companies move to scale their operations.
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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.