Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates through two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The company offers medical and supplemental benefit plans to individuals. It has a contract with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to administer the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition prescription drug plan program; and contracts with various states to provide Medicaid, dual eligible, and long-term support services benefits. In addition, the company provides commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits comprising dental, vision, life insurance, and other supplemental health benefits, as well as administrative services only products to individuals and employer groups; military services, such as TRICARE T2017 East Region contract; and engages in the operations of pharmacy benefit manager business. Further, it operates pharmacies and senior focused primary care centers; and offers home solutions services, such as home health, hospice, and other services to its health plan members, as well as to third parties. The company sells its products through employers and employees, independent brokers and agents, sales representatives, and digital insurance agencies. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Humana Inc.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Friday closed down -0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.05%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.08%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.10%.
Stocks gave up an early advance on Friday and settled slightly lower on mixed earnings results and weakness in health insurance providers. Netflix fell by more than 5% and weighed on technology stocks after the company forecasted full-year operating margins below consensus.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Also, health insurance stocks retreated after Humana lost a lawsuit to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments and after Elevance Health was downgraded.
Stocks maintained slight losses Friday afternoon after the Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any trade deal with the European Union (EU), as Mr. Trump has remained unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs. Also, the Financial Times said that EU trade commissioner Sefcovic gave a downbeat assessment of recent trade talks in Washington on Friday to EU ambassadors.
Stock indexes initially moved higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Bullish factors included the stronger-than-expected housing starts report and generally upbeat earnings reports. Also, the University of Michigan's US July consumer sentiment index rose more than expected to a 5-month high.
Falling bond yields are supportive of stocks following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday evening, who stated that he supports a Fed interest rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Also, an easing of inflation expectations in Friday's University of Michigan's July inflation expectations report was bullish for T-notes and stocks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -2 bp to 4.43%.
US June housing starts rose +4.6% m/m to 1.321 million, stronger than expectations of 1.300 million. Also, June building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m to 1.397 million versus expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline to 1.387 million.
The University of Michigan's July US consumer sentiment index rose +1.1 to a 5-month high of 61.8, stronger than expectations of 61.5.
The University of Michigan's US July 1-year inflation expectations indicator fell to a 5-month low of +4.4%, better than expectations of no change at +5.0%. Also, the July 5-10 year inflation expectations indicator eased to a 5-month low of +3.6%, weaker than expectations of +3.9%.
Thursday evening, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said, "With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate. I believe it makes sense to cut the FOMC's policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now."
Recent trade news has put some downward pressure on stocks. President Trump said late Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1, and that the group was "not big countries who don't do that much business with the US."
Also, President Trump last weekend announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don't relocate production to the US within the next year.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
Earnings season began in earnest this week as big bank earnings results came in stronger than expected. Early results now show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +3.2% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets on Friday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.33%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.50%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a 2.5-week high and closed down -0.21%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) on Friday closed up +8.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.3 bp to 4.428%. T-notes rose Friday on dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he backs a Fed rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Also, falling inflation expectations in Friday's University of Michigan report were bullish for T-notes.
On the bearish side, Friday's US housing starts report was stronger than expected. Also, Friday's increase in the University of Michigan US July consumer sentiment to a 5-month high was negative for T-notes.
European government bond yields on Friday moved higher. The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.0 bp to 2.695%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 1.5-month high of 4.684% and finished up +1.9 bp to 4.674%.
Eurozone May construction output fell -1.7% m/m, the biggest decline in nearly 2.5-years.
The German June PPI fell -1.3% y/y, right on expectations and the steepest pace of decline in 9 months.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Weakness in managed health care stocks weighed on the broader market Friday. Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Elevance Health (ELV) closed down more than -8% after Leerink Partners downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform. Also, Centene (CNC) closed down more than -3%, and CVS Health Corp (CVS) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Humana (HUM) closed down more than -1% after it lost a lawsuit seeking to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments.
Netflix (NFLX) closed down more than -5% after forecasting a full-year operating margin of 29.5%, below the consensus of 29.7%.
3M Co (MMM) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after cutting its full-year organic sales estimate to +2% from a previous forecast of +2% to +3%.
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) closed down more than -36% after it said another patient died from acute liver failure after receiving one of its experimental gene therapies for a muscle disease.
Autoliv (ALV) closed down more than -4% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating margin of 9.30%, below the consensus of 9.35%.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) closed down more than -3% after Zelman & Associates downgraded the stock to underperform.
American Express (AXP) closed down more than -2% after reporting Q2 total expenses of $12.90 billion, above the consensus of $12.73 billion.
Talen Energy (TLN) closed up more than +24% after acquiring gas-fired power plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio for $3.5 billion.
Invesco Ltd (IVZ) closed up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after it filed a proxy statement with the SEC seeking to convert the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 into an open-ended fund from a unit investment trust.
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) closed up more than +7% after reporting Q2 total net interest income of $860 million, well above the consensus of $794.7 million.
Regions Financial (RF) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q2 net interest income of $1.27 billion, better than the consensus of $1.24 billion, and raising its full-year net interest income growth estimate to +3% to +5% from a previous estimate of +1% to +4%.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) closed up more than +2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $145.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) closed up more than +2% on reports that Union Pacific is said to be exploring an acquisition of the company.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) closed up more than +2% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $5.85 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.72 billion.
Earnings Reports (7/21/2025)
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), Crown Holdings Inc (CCK), Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ), Equity LifeStyle Properties In (ELS), Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), RLI Corp (RLI), Roper Technologies Inc (ROP), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), Verizon Communications Inc (VZ), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower on Mixed Earnings Results

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today down -0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.44%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.15%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.14%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.17%.
Stocks today gave up an early advance and turned lower as a -5% decline in Netflix weighed on technology stocks after the company forecasted below-consensus full-year operating margins. Also, the weakness in health insurance providers is weighing on the broader market today after Humana lost a lawsuit to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments and after Elevance Health was downgraded.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Stock indexes initially moved higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Bullish factors included the stronger-than-expected housing starts report and generally upbeat earnings reports. Also, the University of Michigan’s US July consumer sentiment index rose more than expected to a 5-month high.
Falling bond yields are supportive of stocks following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday evening, who stated that he supports a Fed interest rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Also, an easing of inflation expectations in today’s University of Michigan’s July inflation expectations report was bullish for T-notes and stocks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3 bp to 4.42%.
US June housing starts rose +4.6% m/m to 1.321 million, stronger than expectations of 1.300 million. Also, June building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m to 1.397 million versus expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline to 1.387 million.
The University of Michigan’s July US consumer sentiment index rose +1.1 to a 5-month high of 61.8, stronger than expectations of 61.5.
The University of Michigan’s US July 1-year inflation expectations indicator fell to a 5-month low of +4.4%, better than expectations of no change at +5.0%. Also, the July 5-10 year inflation expectations indicator eased to a 5-month low of +3.6%, weaker than expectations of +3.9%.
Thursday evening, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said, “With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate. I believe it makes sense to cut the FOMC’s policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now.”
Recent trade news has put some downward pressure on stocks. President Trump said late Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1, and that the group was “not big countries who don’t do that much business with the US.”
Also, President Trump last weekend announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don’t relocate production to the US within the next year.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
Earnings season began in earnest this week as big bank earnings results came in stronger than expected. Early results now show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +3.2% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.42%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.50%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a 2.5-week high and closed down -0.21%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.432%. T-notes are climbing today on dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he backs a Fed rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Also, falling inflation expectations in today’s University of Michigan report were bullish for T-notes.
On the bearish side, today’s US housing starts report was stronger than expected. Also, today’s increase in the University of Michigan US July consumer sentiment to a 5-month high was negative for T-notes.
European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.1 bp to 2.696%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 1.5-month high of 4.680% and is up +2.1 bp to 4.676%.
Eurozone May construction output fell -1.7% m/m, the biggest decline in nearly 2.5-years.
The German June PPI fell -1.3% y/y, right on expectations and the steepest pace of decline in 9 months.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Weakness in managed health care stocks is weighing on the broader market today. Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Leerink Partners downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform. Also, Humana (HUM) is down more than -2% after it lost a lawsuit seeking to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments. In addition, Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down more than -4%, and Centene (CNC) and CVS Health Corp (CVS) are down more than -1%.
Netflix (NFLX) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting a full-year operating margin of 29.5%, below the consensus of 29.7%.
American Express (AXP) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 total expenses of $12.90 billion, above the consensus of $12.73 billion.
3M Co (MMM) is down more than -3% after cutting its full-year organic sales estimate to +2% from a previous forecast of +2% to +3%.
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is down more than -18% after it said another patient died from acute liver failure after receiving one of its experimental gene therapies for a muscle disease.
Autoliv (ALV) is down more than -4% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating margin of 9.30%, below the consensus of 9.35%.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is down more than -2% after Zelman & Associates downgraded the stock to underperform.
Talen Energy (TLN) is up more than +22% after acquiring gas-fired power plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio for $3.5 billion.
Invesco Ltd (IVZ) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after it filed a proxy statement with the SEC seeking to convert the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 into an open-ended fund from a unit investment trust.
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 total net interest income of $860 million, well above the consensus of $794.7 million.
Regions Financial (RF) is up more than +4% after reporting Q2 net interest income of $1.27 billion, better than the consensus of $1.24 billion, and raising its full-year net interest income growth estimate to +3% to +5% from a previous estimate of +1% to +4%.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is up more than +3% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $145.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) is up more than +3% on reports that Union Pacific is said to be exploring an acquisition of the company.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) is up more than +2% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $5.85 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.72 billion.
Earnings Reports (7/18/2025)
3M Co (MMM), Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), American Express Co (AXP), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Comerica Inc (CMA), Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT), Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH (HBAN), MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX), Regions Financial Corp (RF), Schlumberger NV (SLB), Southern Copper Corp (SCCO), Truist Financial Corp (TFC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Pressured by Weakness in Netflix and Health Insurers

Rising prescription drug costs remain a top healthcare concern, with pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) facing heightened scrutiny for their role in managing prescription drug benefits for insurers and health plans. CVS Health’s CVS Caremark business recently secured a new pharmacy benefits contract with The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) — the largest public pension fund in the United States. The five-year agreement replaces OptumRx, UnitedHealth Group’s UNH PBM, which had served CalPERS members over the past nine years.
Starting Jan. 1, 2026, Caremark will provide outpatient prescription drug benefits to nearly 587,000 members enrolled in Basic or Medicare HMO and PPO plans, which is roughly 40% of CalPERS’ 1.5 million beneficiaries. CVS will also work closely with CalPERS to develop a range of options for managing formulary changes that could affect copays or require switching to an equally effective alternative.
Essentially, CVS Caremark was selected over other vendors for its ability to deliver more affordable drug benefits, and its commitment to strong contract terms around accountability, transparency and groundbreaking financial guarantees. The company puts $250 million at risk if it fails to meet targets for controlling pharmacy benefit costs and delivering clinical quality outcomes tied to improving care for high blood pressure and diabetes. The contract positions CVS Caremark at the forefront of CalPERS’ efforts to create a model that can serve as “a blueprint for purchasers nationwide”.
This year, CVS Health also opted to prefer Wegovy over Zepbound on its commercial template formularies. The move is designed to promote competition in reducing drug costs and enable broader, more affordable coverage for weight management medications. Clients using CVS Caremark’s template formularies could save 10-15% annually in the anti-obesity medication space as a result of this strategic change.
Updates From CVS Health’s PBM Peers
The global PBM market is expanding, with CVS Caremark, OptumRx and Express Scripts (Cigna) dominating the market. Other prominent players include Elevance Health ELV, which offers pharmacy services through its CarelonRx unit. ELV had just released its second quarter-2025 earnings results, with higher CarelonRx product revenues driving a 33% year-over-year increase in Carelon operating gains. The growth in CarelonRx operating revenues was mainly due to higher prescription volume from rising pharmacy membership and contributions from recent acquisitions.
Humana HUM, too, operates a PBM business under its Insurance segment. Humana recently announced a partnership with healthcare software company Epic, becoming the first health insurer to integrate health plan information directly into the MyChart accounts. This enables Humana Medicare Advantage members to access their insurance details, such as vital coverage information, benefits, contacts and other resources, in the same platform where they manage the rest of their care.
CVS’ Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
In the past year, CVS Health shares have risen 6.3% against the industry’s 17.7% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVS shares are trading at a forward one-year price-to-earnings ratio of 9.60 compared to the industry average of 14.00. The stock carries a Value Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Analyst estimates for the company’s 2025 and 2026 earnings are showing an upward trend.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVS stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They include
Stock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and Resilience
Stock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the Dip
Stock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the Market
Stock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for Growth
Stock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to Spring
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.
Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

CVS Health's Caremark to Lead CalPERS' PBM Vision: What's at Stake?

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Thursday closed up +0.54%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.74%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) rose +0.59%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.77%.
Stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes posting new record highs. Signs that the US economy is holding up, despite tariff uncertainty, boosted stocks. Positive economic news Thursday included a decline in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month low, a stronger-than-expected retail sales report, and a rise in the Philadelphia Fed index to a 5-month high.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Stocks added to their gains Thursday afternoon on dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said the most recent set of rate projections from Fed officials, issued in June, offered a "reasonable outlook" in pointing to two 25 bp rate cuts by year's end. She added that the Fed should not wait too long before moving on rates, because if they wait until inflation is 2%, they've "likely injured the economy in some way that was completely unnecessary."
On the negative side, health insurers retreated on Thursday, led by a -12% plunge in Elevance Health after the company cut its earnings outlook for the year. Also, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler were bearish for stocks when she said the Fed should keep interest rates on hold "for some time," citing accelerating inflation as tariffs start to boost prices.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 3-month low of 221,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000.
US June retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and June retail sales ex-autos rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
The US June import price index ex-petroleum was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
The US July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +19.9 to a 5-month high of 15.9, stronger than expectations of -1.0.
The US July NAHB housing market index rose +1 to 33, right on expectations.
On the trade front, President Trump said late Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1, and that the group was "not big countries who don't do that much business with the US."
Also, signs that the US could ease some of its export restrictions on semiconductor chips to China are bullish for chip makers. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Nvidia could soon resume sales of its less advanced H20 chips to China, and Advanced Micro Devices received similar assurances from the Commerce Department, a sign that the US may be in the process of negotiating a grand trade deal with China. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, within "the next couple of weeks" and signaled the US will likely extend an August 12 deadline for the easing of sky-high tariffs.
However, stocks were undercut by negative trade news that emerged last week and during this past weekend. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don't relocate production to the US within the next year.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
The markets will focus on any fresh news regarding tariffs or trade deals during the remainder of this week. On Friday, June housing starts are expected to climb +3.6% m/m to 1.300 million, and June building permits are expected to slip -0.5% m/m to 1.387 million. Also, the University of Michigan's US July consumer sentiment index is expected to climb +0.8 to 61.5.
Earnings season began in earnest this week with a focus on big bank earnings results. The consensus is for S&P 500 companies to show Q2 earnings growth of +2.8% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets on Thursday settled higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +1.49%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.37%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.60%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) on Thursday closed down -3.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.8 bp to 4.463%. T-notes on Thursday posted modest losses following stronger-than-expected US economic news, including June retail sales, weekly initial unemployment claims, and the July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, which signaled a hawkish tone for Fed policy. Also, Thursday's rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. In addition, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler weighed on T-notes when she said the Fed should keep interest rates on hold "for some time." Finally, rising inflation expectations undercut T-notes when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 4.75-month high of 2.450% on Thursday.
Losses in T-notes were limited Thursday on carryover support from late Wednesday when President Trump said he has "no plans" on firing Fed Chair Powell. T-notes also found support on signs of easing price pressures after Thursday's news showed the June import price index ex-petroleum rose less than expected.
European government bond yields on Thursday were mixed. The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.3 bp to 2.675%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 6-week high of 4.678% and finished up +1.7 bp to 4.655%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +3% to lead airline stocks higher after CEO Kirby said the second half of the year has become more predictable and the company has potential "upside" to beat its earnings targets as customers returned to booking flights. Also, Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +3% and American Airlines Group (AAL) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up more than +1%.
PepsiCo (PEP) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $22.73 billion, above the consensus of $22.32 billion.
Snap-on (SNA) closed up more than +7% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.18 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.16 billion.
Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) closed up more than +6% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $32.
CSX Corp (CSX) closed up more than +4% after Semafor reported that Union Pacific is exploring an acquisition of the company.
Travelers Cos (TRV) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 core EPS of $6.51, well above the consensus of $3.60.
Mondelez International (MDLZ) closed up more than +3% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $78.
Health insurance providers are sliding today, led by a -12% plunge in Elevance Health (ELV) to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its earnings outlook for the year to "approximately" $30 per share, well below a previous forecast of $34.15 to $34.85 per share. Also, Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed down more than -5% and Centene (CNC) closed down more than -4%. In addition, Cigna Group (CI) closed down more than -2% and Humana (HUM) closed down more than -1%. Finally, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Sonic Automotive (SAH) closed down -10% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from overweight with a price target of $72.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) closed down more than -8% after reporting Q2 organic sales of +6.90%, below the consensus of +7.03% and forecasting full-year organic sales of +6% to +7%, weaker than the consensus of +7.37%.
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) closed down more than -5% after selling over 25.5 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering overnight between $19.91 to $20.33 a share, below Wednesday's closing price of $20.85.
Shake Shack (SHAK) closed down more than -1% after Jeffries downgraded the stock to underperform from hold with a price target of $120.
Zoetis (ZTS) closed down -1% after Leerink Partners downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.
Earnings Reports (7/18/2025)
3M Co (MMM), Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), American Express Co (AXP), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Comerica Inc (CMA), Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT), Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH (HBAN), MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX), Regions Financial Corp (RF), Schlumberger NV (SLB), Southern Copper Corp (SCCO), Truist Financial Corp (TFC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Rally to Record Highs on a Resilient US Economy

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.47%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.25%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.51%.
Stocks are climbing today on signs the US economy is holding up, despite tariff uncertainty. Positive economic news today included a decline in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month low, a stronger-than-expected retail sales report, and a rise in the Philadelphia Fed index to a 5-month high.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Strength in airline stocks is also lifting the broader market, as United Airlines Holdings jumped more than 3% after CEO Kirby said the second half of the year has become more predictable and the company has potential “upside” to beat its earnings targets, as customers return to booking flights.
On the negative side, health insurers are retreating today, led by an -11% plunge in Elevance Health after the company cut its earnings outlook for the year. Also, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler were bearish for stocks when she said the Fed should keep interest rates on hold “for some time,” citing accelerating inflation as tariffs start to boost prices.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 3-month low of 221,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000.
US June retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and June retail sales ex-autos rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
The US June import price index ex-petroleum was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
The US July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +19.9 to a 5-month high of 15.9, stronger than expectations of -1.0.
The US July NAHB housing market index rose +1 to 33, right on expectations.
On the trade front, President Trump said late Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1, and that the group was “not big countries who don’t do that much business with the US.”
Also, signs that the US could ease some of its export restrictions on semiconductor chips to China are bullish for chip makers. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Nvidia could soon resume sales of its less advanced H20 chips to China, and Advanced Micro Devices received similar assurances from the Commerce Department, a sign that the US may be in the process of negotiating a grand trade deal with China. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, within “the next couple of weeks” and signaled the US will likely extend an August 12 deadline for the easing of sky-high tariffs.
However, stocks were undercut by negative trade news that emerged last week and during this past weekend. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don’t relocate production to the US within the next year.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on Sep 16-17.
The markets will focus on any fresh news regarding tariffs or trade deals during the remainder of this week. Later today, the July NAHB housing market index is expected to rise +1 to 33. On Friday, June housing starts are expected to climb +3.3% m/m to 1.298 million, and June building permits are expected to slip -0.6% m/m to 1.386 million. Also, the University of Michigan’s US July consumer sentiment index is expected to climb +0.8 to 61.5.
Earnings season began in earnest this week with a focus on big bank earnings results. The consensus is for S&P 500 companies to show Q2 earnings growth of +2.8% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.23%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.37%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.60%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.4 bp to 4.431%. T-notes recovered from early losses today and moved higher on carryover support from late Wednesday when President Trump said he has “no plans” on firing Fed Chair Powell. T-notes also found support on signs of easing price pressures after today’s news showed the June import price index ex-petroleum rose less than expected.
T-notes initially moved lower today on stronger-than-expected US economic news, including June retail sales, weekly initial unemployment claims, and the July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, which signaled strength in the US economy that was hawkish for Fed policy. Also, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. In addition, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler limited gains in T-notes when she said the Fed should keep interest rate on hold “for some time.”
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.0 bp to 2.667%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 6-week high of 4.678% and is down -0.1 bp to 4.638%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +3% to lead airline stocks higher after CEO Kirby said the second half of the year has become more predictable and the company has potential “upside” to beat its earnings targets as customers returned to booking flights. Also, Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +3% and American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +2%. In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up more than +1%.
PepsiCo (PEP) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $22.73 billion, above the consensus of $22.32 billion.
Snap-on (SNA) is up more than +5% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.18 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.16 billion.
CSX Corp (CSX) is up more than +2% after Semafor reported that Union Pacific is exploring an acquisition of the company.
Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) is up more than +5% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $32.
Travelers Cos (TRV) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 core EPS of $6.51, well above the consensus of $3.60.
Mondelez International (MDLZ) is up more than +2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $78.
Health insurance providers are sliding today, led by an -11% plunge in Elevance Health (ELV) to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its earnings outlook for the year to “approximately” $30 per share, well below a previous forecast of $34.15 to $34.85 per share. Also, Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down more than -3%. In addition, Humana (HUM), Centene (CNC), and Cigna Group (CI) are down more than -2%. Finally, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Sonic Automotive (SAH) is down more than -8% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from overweight with a price target of $72.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is down more than -7% after reporting Q2 organic sales of +6.90%, below the consensus of +7.03% and forecasting full-year organic sales of +6% to +7%, weaker than the consensus of +7.37%.
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) is down more than -4% after selling over 25.5 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering overnight between $19.91 to $20.33 a share, below Wednesday’s closing price of $20.85.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is down more than -2% after President Trump said Coca-Cola has agreed to use “real cane sugar” in Coke soda in the US, which could reduce demand for ADM’s corn syrup and hurt its corn-processing business.
Shake Shack (SHAK) is down more than -2% after Jeffries downgraded the stock to underperform from hold with a price target of $120.
MP Materials (MP) is down more than -1% after it said it commenced a $500 million underwritten public offering of its common stock to fund its expansion.
Earnings Reports (7/17/2025)
PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), Cintas Corp (CTAS), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MMC), US Bancorp (USB), Snap-on Inc (SNA), General Electric Co (GE), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Netflix Inc (NFLX).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Supported by Signs of US Economic Strength

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.40%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.08%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.18%.
Stocks are climbing today on signs the US economy is holding up, despite tariff uncertainty. Positive economic news today included a decline in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month low, a stronger-than-expected retail sales report, and a rise in the Philadelphia Fed index to a 5-month high.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Strength in airline stocks is also lifting the broader market as United Airlines Holdings jumped more than +6% after CEO Kirby said the second half of the year has become more predictable, and the company has potential "upside" to beat its earnings targets as customers returned to booking flights.
On the negative side, health insurers are retreating today, led by an -11% plunge in Elevance Health after the company cut its earnings outlook for the year.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 3-month low of 221,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000.
US June retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and June retail sales ex-autos rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
The US June import price index ex-petroleum was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
The US July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +19.9 to a 5-month high of 15.9, stronger than expectations of -1.0.
On the trade front, President Trump said late Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1, and that the group was "not big countries who don't do that much business with the US."
Also, signs that the US could ease some of its export restrictions on semiconductor chips to China are bullish for chip makers. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Nvidia could soon resume sales of its less advanced H20 chips to China, and Advanced Micro Devices received similar assurances from the Commerce Department, a sign that the US may be in the process of negotiating a grand trade deal with China. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, within "the next couple of weeks" and signaled the US will likely extend an August 12 deadline for the easing of sky-high tariffs.
However, stocks were undercut by negative trade news that emerged last week and during this past weekend. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don't relocate production to the US within the next year.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on Sep 16-17.
The markets will focus on any fresh news regarding tariffs or trade deals during the remainder of this week. Later today, the July NAHB housing market index is expected to rise +1 to 33. On Friday, June housing starts are expected to climb +3.3% m/m to 1.298 million, and June building permits are expected to slip -0.6% m/m to 1.386 million. Also, the University of Michigan's US July consumer sentiment index is expected to climb +0.8 to 61.5.
Earnings season began in earnest this week with a focus on big bank earnings results. The consensus is for S&P 500 companies to show Q2 earnings growth of +2.8% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.11%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.37%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.60%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.2 bp to 4.433%. T-notes recovered from early losses today and moved higher on carryover support from late Wednesday when President Trump said he has "no plans” on firing Fed Chair Powell. T-notes also found support on signs of easing price pressures after today's news showed the Jun import price index ex-petroleum rose less than expected.
T-notes initially moved lower today on stronger-than-expected US economic news, including June retail sales, weekly initial unemployment claims, and the July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, which signaled strength in the US economy that was hawkish for Fed policy. Also, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.
European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.4 bp to 2.691%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 6-week high of 4.678% and is up +2.2 bp to 4.660%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +6% to lead airline stocks higher after CEO Kirby said the second half of the year has become more predictable and the company has potential "upside" to beat its earnings targets as customers returned to booking flights. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +5% and Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +3%. In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up more than +2% and Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +1%.
Snap-on (SNA) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.18 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.16 billion.
PepsiCo (PEP) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $22.73 billion, above the consensus of $22.32 billion.
CSX Corp (CSX) is up more than +3% after Semafor reported that Union Pacific is exploring an acquisition of the company.
Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) is up more than +7% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $32.
Toast (TOST) is up more than +3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from not rated with a price target of $54.
Mondelez International (MDLZ) is up more than +1% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $78.
Health insurance providers are sliding today, led by an -11% plunge in Elevance Health (ELV) to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its earnings outlook for the year to "approximately" $30 per share, well below a previous forecast of $34.15 to $34.85 per share. Also, Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down more than -5%. In addition, Humana (HUM), Centene (CNC), and Cigna Group (CI) are down more than -2%. Finally, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Joens Industrials.
Sonic Automotive (SAH) is down more than -6% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from overweight with a price target of $72.
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) is down more than -4% after selling over 25.5 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering overnight between $19.91 to $20.33 a share, below Wednesday's closing price of $20.85.
MP Materials (MP) is down more than -2% after it said it commenced a $500 million underwritten public offering of its common stock to fund its expansion.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is down more than -1% after President Trump said Coca-Cola has agreed to use "real cane sugar" in Coke soda in the US, which could reduce demand for ADM's corn syrup and hurt its corn-processing business.
Shake Shack (SHAK) is down more than -1% after Jeffries downgraded the stock to underperform from hold with a price target of $120.
Earnings Reports (7/17/2025)
PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), Cintas Corp (CTAS), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MMC), US Bancorp (USB), Snap-on Inc (SNA), General Electric Co (GE), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Netflix Inc (NFLX).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Signs of Economic Strength Boost Stocks

Elevance Health (NYSE:ELV) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, July 17, 2025. For event-driven traders, examining historical stock performance around earnings releases can provide valuable insights and potentially enhance trading strategies.
Over the past five years, ELV has demonstrated positive one-day stock returns in 55% of instances following earnings reports. The median positive return on these days was 2.7%, with a maximum one-day positive return reaching 7.7%. Separately, cryptocurrencies have started to move again. See Will The Rally In XRP Price Continue?
Traders can approach earnings announcements with two main strategies:
Pre-Earnings Positioning: Based on the historical probabilities, one might consider establishing a position before the earnings report is released.
Post-Earnings Positioning: Alternatively, traders can wait for the earnings announcement and then analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns to guide their subsequent trading decisions.
Analysts’ consensus estimates for Elevance Health’s upcoming report are earnings of $9.19 per share on revenue of $48.26 billion. This is in contrast to the year-ago quarter, where the company reported earnings of $10.12 per share on revenue of $43.22 billion.
From a fundamental standpoint, Elevance Health currently holds a market capitalization of $77 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $183 billion in revenue and reported a net income of $5.9 billion.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Also, see the potential for growth in Google Stock To $350?
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Elevance Health’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 61% of the time.
Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.7%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -5.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Elevance Health, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

How Will Elevance Health Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Humana Inc. (Symbol: HUM), where a total of 7,081 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 708,100 underlying shares. That amounts to about 46% of HUM's average daily trading volume over the past month of 1.5 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $240 strike call option expiring August 01, 2025, with 627 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 62,700 underlying shares of HUM. Below is a chart showing HUM's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $240 strike highlighted in orange:
e.l.f. Beauty Inc (Symbol: ELF) saw options trading volume of 8,381 contracts, representing approximately 838,100 underlying shares or approximately 44.6% of ELF's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 1.9 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $114 strike call option expiring July 18, 2025, with 1,454 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 145,400 underlying shares of ELF. Below is a chart showing ELF's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $114 strike highlighted in orange:
And Cardinal Health, Inc. (Symbol: CAH) options are showing a volume of 10,891 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 1.1 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 44.3% of CAH's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.5 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $160 strike put option expiring July 18, 2025, with 2,464 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 246,400 underlying shares of CAH. Below is a chart showing CAH's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $160 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for HUM options, ELF options, or CAH options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Top Stocks Held By Ken Fisher
EMO Historical Stock Prices
Institutional Holders of GEM
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: HUM, ELF, CAH

Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider BellRing Brands?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. BellRing Brands (BRBR) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.53 a share, just 10 days from its upcoming earnings release on November 18, 2024.
BellRing Brands' Earnings ESP sits at +8.14%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.53 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.49. BRBR is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
BRBR is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Stryker (SYK).
Slated to report earnings on February 4, 2025, Stryker holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $3.88 a share 88 days from its next quarterly update.
For Stryker, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.87 is +0.13%.
BRBR and SYK's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Free: 5 Stocks to Buy As Infrastructure Spending Soars
Trillions of dollars in Federal funds have been earmarked to repair and upgrade America’s infrastructure. In addition to roads and bridges, this flood of cash will pour into AI data centers, renewable energy sources and more.
In, you’ll discover 5 surprising stocks positioned to profit the most from the spending spree that’s just getting started in this space.
Download How to Profit from the Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Boom absolutely free today.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 5 Stocks Set to Double. Click to get this free report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

These 2 Medical Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH was recently dropped from several Russell growth-style indices including the Russell Top 200 Growth, Russell 1000 Growth, and Russell 3000 Growth, effective June 30, 2025, according to Simply Wall St. The decision reflects both a sharp decline in UNH’s stock price and a shift away from traditional growth metrics.
Earlier, Mizuho had warned that UnitedHealth’s surging volatility and deep market value erosion might even jeopardize its place in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, although that removal has not occurred.
Severe Underperformance vs. Peers
Shares of UnitedHealth plunged 40.4% in the past three months due to simultaneous pressures across multiple business lines. At one point in time, it had even lost more than $300 billion in market cap. This drop far outpaced the broader industry decline of 31.6%, while the S&P 500 has gained 9% during the same period.
Among its peers, Humana Inc. HUM fell only 8.1%, and Elevance Health, Inc. ELV lost 9.4%, highlighting the uniquely steep deterioration in UNH’s stock.
Price Performance – UNH, HUM, ELV, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s recent financial performance has also disappointed. UnitedHealth missed both earnings and revenue expectations in the first quarter and withdrew its full-year 2025 financial guidance. Rising medical costs, especially in the Medicare Advantage segment, are compressing margins, while a surge in high-acuity patient volumes is adding to cost pressures. Both Humana and Elevance Health have also faced cost pressures, but to a lesser extent and under more effective control.
UNH’s operational headwinds have been compounded by leadership uncertainty. CEO Andrew Witty stepped down unexpectedly, and the former longtime executive Stephen Hemsley returned to the helm. Soon after, the Wall Street Journal reported that the company was under criminal investigation for alleged Medicare fraud. Adding to this were expanded Medicare Advantage audits by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, increasing the likelihood of penalties and reimbursement clawbacks.
Further reputational damage came from allegations that UnitedHealth secretly incentivized nursing homes to avoid hospital transfers. Although the Department of Justice ultimately declined to pursue charges due to insufficient evidence, the incident nonetheless harmed the company’s public image.
The recent shift in investor perception from viewing UnitedHealth as a growth stock carries significant implications. The stock may now experience temporary selling pressure as index-tracking growth funds are forced to exit their positions. However, it could begin to gain more weight in value-focused funds, potentially helping to offset some of the capital outflows from growth-oriented strategies.
At the same time, the company’s business model faces real threats from regulatory risks. Optum Rx, UnitedHealth’s pharmacy benefit manager (PBM), may face mounting headwinds from ongoing regulatory scrutiny targeting the pricing power of PBMs. President Trump’s “most-favored nation” executive order could further challenge the role of middlemen like PBMs by encouraging more direct drug pricing for consumers. This remains an evolving regulatory situation.
UNH’s Unfavorable Estimate Revisions
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNH’s 2025 EPS has seen 13 downward revisions in the past 60 days, while the 2026 EPS estimate has seen 11, without a single upward revision. Earnings for 2025 are now projected to decline by 20.2%, even as revenues are still expected to climb 12.3% year over year. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UNH Valuation: Not Cheap Enough to Buy the Dip
At first glance, UnitedHealth might seem attractively priced, trading at a forward P/E of 13.15X, well below its five-year median of 19.20X. However, that multiple still stands above the industry average of 11.92X. In comparison, Humana trades at 16.10X and Elevance at 10.58X, placing UnitedHealth somewhere in the middle of the pack despite its recent selloff.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Glimmers of Resilience for UNH?
Still, not all hope is lost. UnitedHealth continues to invest heavily in technology and analytics, particularly in value-based care and predictive health models. These initiatives could eventually help stabilize and rebuild earnings power. Despite the recent turmoil and loss of growth-stock status, the company’s vertically integrated structure, scale, and expanding digital capabilities provide strategic advantages. Upcoming Medicare Advantage rate increases, scheduled for 2026, may also offer some margin relief and support future growth.
As of March 31, 2025, UnitedHealthcare served 50.1 million members, up 1.9% year over year, driven largely by growth in self-funded commercial plans. Long-term demographic trends, including an aging population and rising rates of chronic disease, remain favorable for UnitedHealth’s business model.
Financially, the company remains well capitalized. It generated $5.5 billion in operating cash flow in the first quarter, a sharp increase from $1.1 billion in the prior-year period. It also ended the quarter with $34.3 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company recently raised $3 billion through the issuance of various notes, in part to strengthen its balance sheet amid ongoing legal settlements.
UnitedHealth returned more than $5 billion to shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and stock repurchases. In addition to fortifying its liquidity, the company recently raised its quarterly dividend by 5.2% to $2.21 per share from $2.10, bringing its dividend yield to 1.76%, well above the industry average of 1.31%. While the near-term outlook remains clouded by regulatory and operational challenges, UnitedHealth’s core strengths and strategic pivots could position it for recovery in the longer term.
Conclusion
Given the breadth and severity of UnitedHealth’s current headwinds, including its removal from key growth indices, sharp underperformance relative to peers, margin pressures, regulatory investigations, and negative estimate revisions, investors should strongly consider exiting their positions.
The stock's recent collapse may not be just a temporary dislocation but reflects fundamental deterioration in growth visibility and investor confidence. In the short run, this is a stock to dump, not weather through. It currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and Sells
We're not kidding.
Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.
Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone.
See Stocks Now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Humana Inc.

Fundamental analysis

Ratios

Valuation

Debts

Efficiency

Other ratios

Revenue

Financials

Growth

Assets

Debts