Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments, Expedited Freight and Intermodal. The Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract and container freight station warehouse and handling services. It serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.

Forward Air Corporation

(RTTNews) - Forward Air (FWRD) announced Loss for second quarter of -$12.6 million
The company's bottom line totaled -$12.6 million, or -$0.41 per share. This compares with -$645.4 million, or -$23.47 per share, last year.
The company's revenue for the period fell 3.9% to $618.8 million from $643.7 million last year.
Forward Air earnings at a glance (GAAP) :
-Earnings: -$12.6 Mln. vs. -$645.4 Mln. last year. -EPS: -$0.41 vs. -$23.47 last year. -Revenue: $618.8 Mln vs. $643.7 Mln last year.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Forward Air Q2 Loss Declines

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Forward Air Corp (Symbol: FWRD), where a total volume of 2,135 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 213,500 underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 47.2% of FWRD's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 452,475 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $20 strike put option expiring July 18, 2025, with 1,505 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 150,500 underlying shares of FWRD. Below is a chart showing FWRD's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $20 strike highlighted in orange:
Rambus Inc. (Symbol: RMBS) saw options trading volume of 3,989 contracts, representing approximately 398,900 underlying shares or approximately 46.8% of RMBS's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 851,970 shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $60 strike put option expiring July 18, 2025, with 1,941 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 194,100 underlying shares of RMBS. Below is a chart showing RMBS's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $60 strike highlighted in orange:
And Alphabet Inc (Symbol: GOOGL) options are showing a volume of 188,365 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 18.8 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 46.4% of GOOGL's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 40.6 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $180 strike call option expiring June 20, 2025, with 24,017 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 2.4 million underlying shares of GOOGL. Below is a chart showing GOOGL's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $180 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for FWRD options, RMBS options, or GOOGL options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
Top Stocks Held By Nelson Peltz
Top Ten Hedge Funds Holding INN
FLNC Average Annual Return
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Monday Option Activity: FWRD, RMBS, GOOGL

Next-generation logistics specialist Forward Air (NASDAQ: FWRD) delivered mightily for its investors Wednesday.
On the back of an encouraging set of preliminary financial results and a business update, investors pushed the company's share price nearly 32% higher. That was more than good enough to beat the S&P 500 index's 9.5% rise.
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Sneak preview
The market liked what it heard from Forward Air regarding its financial performance. The company unveiled selected, preliminary first-quarter results indicating that its non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) figure will land at $54 million to $59 million.
It added that its "liquidity" (defined as cash, cash equivalents, and availability of funds from a senior secured term loan) is anticipated to have risen during the period. That metric is pegged at $392 million at the end of the quarter, which would be a $10 million improvement over the end-of-fourth quarter number.
Management also provided some comfort about tariffs, saying that according to its estimates 10% to 15% of its 2024 revenue would have come from countries initially hit with the Trump administration's tariffs. That figure feels mild compared to the impact other businesses and industries stood to endure.
Hand on the throttle
We'll get a clearer picture of Forward's first quarter when the company unveils its audited results on Wednesday, May 7 after market close.
By that time, it's very possible that more tariff "pauses" will be declared, and/or mutually advantageous deals agreed to by this country and its trading partners. If that's the dynamic over the next few days and weeks, we can expect Forward stock to gain more altitude.
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Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why Forward Air Stock Had Some Serious Lift Today

A comprehensive overhaul of U.S. trade policy, including the introduction of broad tariffs on most of the world, is roiling markets on Thursday. Among the hardest-hit sectors are transportation companies, including Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP), Forward Air (NASDAQ: FWRD), and Zim Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE: ZIM), all losing ground.
Forward and Zim, two stocks known for their volatility, are both down more than 14% as of 11 a.m. ET, while the more docile Union Pacific is off by 4%.
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Reorienting shipping
The tariff announcement was expected, but the extent of the levies caught the market off guard. Assuming they remain in place, the tariffs appear designed to shift manufacturing from overseas locations to the United States. That could fundamentally impact the businesses of global shippers, including Zim and international logistics specialist Forward.
One of the crown jewels of Union Pacific's portfolio is its railway that connects West Coast ports to the U.S. heartland. A significant change in import values could make those rail lines less valuable in the future.
There are still a lot of unknowns about the policies and their impacts. But the potential downside is significant, and on a day when markets are unsettled, it is leading to an outsized reaction among some of the transports.
Is now the time to buy transport stocks?
For those with a long-enough time horizon, there is reason for optimism. Tariffs could alter trade patterns, but they do not remove the need to physically move goods from one point to another. Companies like Union Pacific have irreplaceable assets, and over time they will be put to use, even in changing economic conditions.
But that is little solace for now. The one-two punch of uncertainty about tariffs and uncertainty about consumer demand is likely to lead companies to reduce inventories, at least in the near term, which means fewer goods to carry. Union Pacific had already forecast flat growth in 2025, and now even that modest projection could be at risk.
Unless there is a reversal in policy, these stocks could have further to fall.
Should you invest $1,000 in Zim Integrated Shipping Services right now?
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Lou Whiteman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Union Pacific. The Motley Fool recommends Zim Integrated Shipping Services. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why Transportation Stocks Are Falling Today

With a market cap of $61.2 billion, FedEx Corporation (FDX) provides customers and businesses with a portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services internationally. The Memphis, Tennessee-based company operates in four segments: FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, FedEx Freight, and FedEx Services.
Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally classified as “large-cap” stocks, and FedEx fits this criterion perfectly. The multinational company also offers supply chain management solutions along with trade management tools and data.
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Further, the package delivery company dipped 19.1% from its 52-week high of $313.84. Over the past three months, FedEx stock dropped 9.5%, lagging behind the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), which declined 4.5% in the same period.
In the longer term, FDX is down 9.7% on a YTD basis, underperforming XLI’s 1.9% gain. In addition, shares of FDX have risen 1.5% over the last 52 weeks, while the XLI has returned 9.5%.
FDX has been trading below its 50-day moving average since late December 2024. Also, the stock has remained below its 200-day moving average since late January.
Despite FedEx surpassing Q2 FY25 earnings expectations with adjusted EPS of $4.05 on Dec. 19, 2024, shares fell marginally the next day. Revenue of around $22 billion missed estimates and declined year-over-year, signaling demand weakness, particularly in the FedEx Freight segment. Also, the company lowered its full-year EPS guidance, expecting $16.45 - $17.45. Lastly, macroeconomic headwinds, including weak U.S. industrial production and lower-than-expected shipment volumes, added to investor apprehensions.
In comparison with its rival, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) has lagged behind FDX, declining 33.9% over the past 52 weeks. Also, FWRD has fallen 35.8% on a YTD basis.
Despite FDX’s underperformance compared to its sector over the past year, analysts are moderately optimistic about the stock’s prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 27 analysts covering it, and as of writing, FDX is trading below the mean price target of $317.85.
On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

FedEx Stock: Is FDX Underperforming Industrials Sector?

Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Dollar Tree Inc (Symbol: DLTR), where a total of 19,908 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 2.0 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 68.1% of DLTR's average daily trading volume over the past month of 2.9 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $130 strike put option expiring June 20, 2025, with 6,000 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 600,000 underlying shares of DLTR. Below is a chart showing DLTR's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $130 strike highlighted in orange:
Forward Air Corp (Symbol: FWRD) options are showing a volume of 3,639 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 363,900 underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 65.8% of FWRD's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 552,660 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $30 strike call option expiring June 20, 2025, with 1,223 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 122,300 underlying shares of FWRD. Below is a chart showing FWRD's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $30 strike highlighted in orange:
And Ionq Inc (Symbol: IONQ) saw options trading volume of 94,544 contracts, representing approximately 9.5 million underlying shares or approximately 64.9% of IONQ's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 14.6 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $25 strike put option expiring February 28, 2025, with 6,416 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 641,600 underlying shares of IONQ. Below is a chart showing IONQ's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $25 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for DLTR options, FWRD options, or IONQ options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
Institutional Holders of NPN
Gaming and Leisure Props Earnings History
ORC Dividend History
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy Thursday Option Activity: DLTR, FWRD, IONQ

For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – February 26, 2025 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses Old Dominion Freight Line ODFL, ArcBest Corp. ARCB and Forward Air Corp. FWRD.
Industry: Trucking
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2421010/3-truck-stocks-worth-keeping-an-eye-on-despite-industry-pressure
The Zacks Transportation-Truck industry faces headwinds from weak freight rates, driver shortages, inflation-induced woes and lingering supply-chain disruptions.
Despite macroeconomic challenges causing uncertainty in demand, the industry demonstrates resilience, especially for companies prioritizing growth and operational efficiency. Among the companies in the industry that are likely to survive the challenges are Old Dominion Freight Line, ArcBest Corp. and Forward Air Corp.
Industry Description
The Zacks Transportation - Truck industry houses truck operators transporting freight to diverse customers, mainly across North America. These companies provide full-truckload or less-than-truckload (LTL) services over the short, medium or long haul. The range of trucking services these companies offer includes dry-van, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed and expedited. Some companies have an extensive fleet of company-owned tractors and trucks and independent contractor trucks.
Besides trucking, most entities offer logistics and intermodal services as well as value-added services like container drayage, truckload brokerage, supply-chain consulting and warehousing. A few also offer asset-light services to other third-party logistics companies in the transportation sector.
3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Trucking Industry
Supply-Chain Disruptions & Weak Freight Rates: Although economic activities picked up from the pandemic gloom, supply-chain disruptions continue to dent stocks in the industry. Below-par freight rates are also hurting the industry’s prospects. Highlighting the weak freight demand, Cass Freight Shipments Index declined 8.2% year over year in January. This measure has deteriorated year over year in each month of 2024, which confirms the overall declining trend.
Strong Financial Returns for Shareholders: With economic activities gaining pace from the pandemic lows, more and more companies are allocating their increasing cash pile by way of dividends and buybacks to pacify long-suffering shareholders. This underlines their financial strength and confidence in business. Among the players in the Trucking industry, ODFL announced an increase in the quarterly dividend this year.
Prolonged Truck-Driver Shortage: The persistent driver crisis in the trucking industry is worsening supply-chain challenges across the United States. Driver scarcity issues limit trucking capacity, making it difficult for trucking companies to meet increased freight demand. American Trucking Associations’ chief economist, Bob Costello expects the trucking industry to be short of more than 160,000 drivers by 2030.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Dull Prospects
The Zacks Transportation - Truck industry is a 14-stock group within the broader Zacks Transportation sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #199, which places it in the bottom 20% of 248 Zacks industries.
The group’sZacks Industry Rank, the average of the Zacks Rank of all member stocks, indicates dismal near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gradually losing confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry's earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased 41% on a year-over-year basis.
Before we present a few stocks from the industry that you may want to buy or hold on to, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and the valuation picture.
Truck Industry Underperforms S&P 500 and Sector
The Zacks Transportation-Truck industry has lagged the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the Transportation sector over the past year.
The industry has declined 31.7% over this period against the S&P 500's appreciation of 19.7%. The broader sector has declined 5.8% in the said time frame.
Truck Industry's Current Valuation
Based on the trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), a commonly used multiple for valuing trucking stocks, the industry is currently trading at 17.1X compared with the S&P 500’s 17.52X. It is also above the sector’s EV/EBITDA of 11.11X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 19.57X and as low as 7.47X, with the median being 12.36X.
3 Transport Truck Stocks to Watch
Forward Air is headquartered in Greeneville, TN. This leading asset-light freight and logistics company provides services across the United States and Canada.
The company aims to grow via acquisitions. Recently, FWRD acquired Edgmon Trucking to grow its West Coast Intermodal Drayage operations.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has been revised 8.3% upward over the past 60 days. The stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ArcBest provides freight transportation services and solutions. The company is based in Fort Smith, AR. The company is being well-served by its efforts to control costs, improve productivity, and enhance service quality.
The company expects its 2025 earnings per share to increase 11.5% from 2024 actuals. ArcBest currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Old Dominion is a leading LTL entity based in Thomasville, NC. Old Dominion has been benefiting from its consistent shareholder-friendly measures through dividends and share buybacks.
ODFL’s liquidity position is another tailwind. The company expects its 2025 earnings per share to increase 3.7% from 2024 actuals. ODFL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Old Dominion Freight Line, ArcBest and Forward Air

The Zacks Transportation-Truck industry faces headwinds from weak freight rates, driver shortages, inflation-induced woes and lingering supply-chain disruptions.
Despite macroeconomic challenges causing uncertainty in demand, the industry demonstrates resilience, especially for companies prioritizing growth and operational efficiency. Among the companies in the industry that are likely to survive the challenges are Old Dominion Freight Line ODFL, ArcBest Corporation ARCB and Forward Air Corporation FWRD.
Industry Description
The Zacks Transportation - Truck industry houses truck operators transporting freight to diverse customers, mainly across North America. These companies provide full-truckload or less-than-truckload (LTL) services over the short, medium or long haul. The range of trucking services these companies offer includes dry-van, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed and expedited. Some companies have an extensive fleet of company-owned tractors and trucks and independent contractor trucks. Besides trucking, most entities offer logistics and intermodal services as well as value-added services like container drayage, truckload brokerage, supply-chain consulting and warehousing. A few also offer asset-light services to other third-party logistics companies in the transportation sector.
3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Trucking Industry
Supply-Chain Disruptions & Weak Freight Rates: Although economic activities picked up from the pandemic gloom, supply-chain disruptions continue to dent stocks in the industry. Below-par freight rates are also hurting the industry’s prospects. Highlighting the weak freight demand, Cass Freight Shipments Index declined 8.2% year over year in January. This measure has deteriorated year over year in each month of 2024, which confirms the overall declining trend.
Strong Financial Returns for Shareholders: With economic activities gaining pace from the pandemic lows, more and more companies are allocating their increasing cash pile by way of dividends and buybacks to pacify long-suffering shareholders. This underlines their financial strength and confidence in business. Among the players in the Trucking industry, ODFL announced an increase in the quarterly dividend this year.
Prolonged Truck-Driver Shortage: The persistent driver crisis in the trucking industry is worsening supply-chain challenges across the United States. Driver scarcity issues limit trucking capacity, making it difficult for trucking companies to meet increased freight demand. American Trucking Associations’ chief economist, Bob Costello expects the trucking industry to be short of more than 160,000 drivers by 2030.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Dull Prospects
The Zacks Transportation - Truck industry is a 14-stock group within the broader Zacks Transportation sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #199, which places it in the bottom 20% of 248 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, the average of the Zacks Rank of all member stocks, indicates dismal near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gradually losing confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry's earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased 41% on a year-over-year basis.
Before we present a few stocks from the industry that you may want to buy or hold on to, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and the valuation picture.
Truck Industry Underperforms S&P 500 and Sector
The Zacks Transportation-Truck industry has lagged the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the Transportation sector over the past year.
The industry has declined 31.7% over this period against the S&P 500's appreciation of 19.7%. The broader sector has declined 5.8% in the said time frame.
One-Year Price Performance
Truck Industry's Current Valuation
Based on the trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), a commonly used multiple for valuing trucking stocks, the industry is currently trading at 17.1X compared with the S&P 500’s 17.52X. It is also above the sector’s EV/EBITDA of 11.11X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 19.57X and as low as 7.47X, with the median being 12.36X, as the chart below shows.
Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA Ratio (TTM)
3 Transport Truck Stocks to Watch
Forward Air is headquartered in Greeneville, TN. This leading asset-light freight and logistics company provides services across the United States and Canada.
The company aims to grow via acquisitions. Recently, FWRD acquired Edgmon Trucking to grow its West Coast Intermodal Drayage operations.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has been revised 8.3% upward over the past 60 days. The stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Price and Consensus: FWRD
ArcBest provides freight transportation services and solutions. The company is based in Fort Smith, AR. The company is being well-served by its efforts to control costs, improve productivity, and enhance service quality.
The company expects its 2025 earnings per share to increase 11.5% from 2024 actuals. ArcBest currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Price and Consensus: ARCB
Old Dominion is a leading LTL entity based in Thomasville, NC. Old Dominion has been benefiting from its consistent shareholder-friendly measures through dividends and share buybacks.
ODFL’s liquidity position is another tailwind. The company expects its 2025 earnings per share to increase 3.7% from 2024 actuals. ODFL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Price and Consensus: ODFL
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

3 Truck Stocks Worth Keeping An Eye On Despite Industry Pressure

After months of threatening to levy tariffs on imports from countries he blames for facilitating the flood of fentanyl into the U.S., on Saturday, President Donald Trump did just that. He announced the imposition of new 25% tariffs on imports to the U.S. from its top two trading partners, Mexico and Canada. The country's third biggest trading partner, China, got hit with a 10% increase in its tariffs as well.
U.S. stock markets are reacting as you might expect they would, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 600 points (1.4%) as of 10:20 a.m. ET, and the broader S&P 500 off 1.9%. Transportation stocks in particular were taking it on the chin this morning: United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) stock is down 3.5% as I write this, Forward Air Corporation (NASDAQ: FWRD) is off 6.3%, and FedEx shares (NYSE: FDX) are doing worst of all -- down 6.6%. Trump later put a hold on the Mexico tariffs.
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Tariffs news
The new tariffs are expected to go into immediate and full effect just after midnight tonight, although energy imports from Canada will get a slight reprieve, being taxed at only 10%. CNBC notes that combined, U.S. trade with the three countries named is worth $1.6 trillion annually, so you might think this means, the tariffs would generate about $400 billion in additional annual revenue for the U.S.
In fact, the amount will be far lower than that because (1) the $1.6 trillion covers trade in both directions -- but only trade coming into the U.S. would be subject to tariffs, (2) some of the tariffs are at 10%, not 25% and (3), the U.S. importers who are required to pay the import tariffs will probably raise prices to cover their increased cost. Higher prices tend to depress demand, with the result that the volume of trade will decrease, resulting in lower tariff revenue as well.
Investors are worrying that the higher prices will have a second effect: inflation.
Indeed, higher prices are pretty much the definition of inflation, and inflation was already starting to inch higher again in December, when the inflation rate rose to 2.6%. These new tariffs could make it worse.
Why tariffs are particularly bad news for UPS, Forward Air, and FedEx
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, FedEx does 72% of its business in the U.S. and UPS gets 79% of its revenues from the U.S. (Forward Air doesn't break down its geographical revenue distribution in this way). So while the two larger companies, at least, have some revenue streams that won't be directly exposed to the tariffs fight, the bulk of their business will be exposed.
In a pair of ratings moves this morning, Chicago's Loop Capital lowered its price target on UPS stock to $115, and maintained a hold rating on the stock. Loop also downgraded its rating on FedEx stock from buy to hold.
Loop argues that importing companies are adept at updating prices quickly and that when they do raise prices, sales of imported goods will fall. Lower sales will mean fewer goods to sell, and fewer goods that need transportation to their place of sale. Hence, Loop is downgrading the entire U.S. transportation sector today, and UPS and FedEx in particular.
Is it safe to buy UPS, Forward Air, and FedEx stocks?
In its notes, which were carried on TheFly.com today, Loop points out that the U.S. transportation sector was already in a two-year-long "freight recession" before these tariffs went into effect. FedEx earnings were down 11% year over year in its most recent earnings report, while UPS just finished warning that its sales (which grew less than 6% last quarter) will miss analyst forecasts by about 6% this year, shrinking to $89 billion, rather than growing as expected.
A four-way trade war among the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and China -- which many are fearing -- would almost certainly add to investor worries on that score.
That being said, trade wars eventually end. UPS stock, trading at 17 times earnings today, and paying a dividend yield of nearly 5%, looks attractive to me. Likewise for Forward Air at a valuation of 15 times earnings, despite having a dividend yield of less than 3%. FedEx on the other hand, at 17 times earnings but with only a 2% dividend yield looks relatively less attractive than the others.
Investors looking to buy into transportation stocks in anticipation of an end to the trade war might consider looking at UPS first, Forward Air next, and FedEx stock last of all. In fact, you might want to start looking into that today, because this situation is changing fast. Just before noon, Trump announced he was putting the Mexico tariffs on hold for a month.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends FedEx. The Motley Fool recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why UPS, Forward Air, and FedEx Stocks All Tumbled Today

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in AGNC Investment Corp (Symbol: AGNC), where a total volume of 116,038 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 11.6 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 61.1% of AGNC's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 19.0 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $9 strike put option expiring September 19, 2025, with 20,023 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 2.0 million underlying shares of AGNC. Below is a chart showing AGNC's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $9 strike highlighted in orange:
Forward Air Corp (Symbol: FWRD) options are showing a volume of 3,332 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 333,200 underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 60.9% of FWRD's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 546,910 shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $22.50 strike put option expiring April 17, 2025, with 1,000 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 100,000 underlying shares of FWRD. Below is a chart showing FWRD's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $22.50 strike highlighted in orange:
And American Express Co. (Symbol: AXP) options are showing a volume of 15,015 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 1.5 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 60.4% of AXP's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.5 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $320 strike call option expiring January 17, 2025, with 1,594 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 159,400 underlying shares of AXP. Below is a chart showing AXP's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $320 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for AGNC options, FWRD options, or AXP options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
SONA Insider Buying
HT Insider Buying
GRWG Historical Stock Prices
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.