Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for mortgages in the United States. It operates through two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. The Single-Family segment securitizes and purchases single-family fixed-rate or adjustable-rate, first-lien mortgage loans, or mortgage-related securities backed by these loans; and loans that are insured by Federal Housing Administration, loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and Rural Development Housing and Community Facilities Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, manufactured housing mortgage loans, and other mortgage-related securities. The Multifamily segment securitizes multifamily mortgage loans into Fannie Mae mortgage backed securities (MBS); purchases multifamily mortgage loans; and provides credit enhancement for bonds issued by state and local housing finance authorities to finance multifamily housing. This segment also issues structured MBS backed by Fannie Mae multifamily MBS; buys and sells multifamily agency mortgage-backed securities; and invests in low-income housing tax credit multifamily projects. Federal National Mortgage Association was founded in 1938 and is based in Washington, the District of Columbia.

FANNIE MAE

Key Points
Bank stocks have a complex relationship with interest rates.
Both JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America appear well positioned in this current rate environment.
Mortgage REIT AGNC is highly sensitive to rate fluctuations.
At its last meeting on April 29, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the federal funds rate where it has been since December, in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.
It came as no surprise to anyone, as inflation has been ticking back up, driven by higher energy costs. And interest rate traders, according to the CME FedWatch poll, do not expect rates to come down this year.
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Financial stocks are among the most sensitive to interest rates, particularly banks. Banks, especially large banks, have a complicated relationship with rates, because some parts of their business thrive when rates are lower, while other parts prosper with higher rates.
Let's take a look at the two largest banks, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), to see how the current rate trends are affecting them.
A sweet spot for banks?
Both JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America shares rose slightly after the decision by the FOMC to keep rates where they are, but the move was negligible, and the shares dropped in the following days. In other words, it did little to change the negative trajectory both have been on this year. As of May 5, shares of both were down between 3% and 4%.
Higher rates are often good for banks because they can charge higher interest on their loans. On the other hand, they have to pay out more interest on deposits, too. But generally speaking, large banks, because of the other services they offer and the loyalty of customers, can generate higher net interest income when rates rise, because their deposit rates don't have to be as competitive as perhaps smaller banks.
On the other hand, when rates are higher, loan activity may not be as robust. So while banks may get higher net interest margins, they may not be making as many loans.
That happened to both JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America in the first quarter. While rates were lower this year than they were in the first quarter of last year, both banks generated more revenue and higher net interest income because loan activity was up.
So, rates staying the same is not necessarily a bad thing for either bank, as loan activity remains robust and interest rates are still somewhat elevated. It may in fact be a sweet spot for banks.
Robust M&A buoyed by lower rates
The first quarter was one of the best in recent years for mergers and acquisitions due to the lower interest rate environment. Lower rates make the cost of acquisitions fall, which spurs activity.
Of course, if rates came down at the last FOMC meeting, that would spur even more M&A activity, but keeping them where they are probably won't hurt at all. Both JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are top five investment banks, so they were both buoyed by all the M&A activity in Q1.
The reason both these stocks are down is tied to economic doubts and rising inflation, due in large part to the war in Iran. When there is economic turmoil and rising prices, there's typically less spending and fewer loans, which hurts banks.
But for investors, both stocks look like solid buys, even with the upheaval, as both are trading at low multiples and should be well positioned to grow, barring a long, protracted war that leads to an economic downturn.
Is AGNC still a good dividend bet?
A third stock to watch is AGNC (NASDAQ: AGNC), a mortgage real estate investment trust, or mREIT. AGNC buys up mostly agency mortgage-backed securities, meaning those mortgages pooled together and sold by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and government agencies. It borrows at lower short-term rates to buy these long-term securities with higher yields and it profits on the spread.
AGNC is even more sensitive to rate fluctuations than the banks. That's because when rates go up, the book value of the loan portfolio goes down, because investors can get better short-term rates elsewhere. And when interest rates go down, it's the opposite; the book value of the portfolio is higher as it looks more attractive compared to other short-term rates.
With rates staying the same in April and likely for the foreseeable future, AGNC stock should remain fairly stable. The primary value of AGNC stock is its dividend, which it pays out monthly and has steadfastly maintained at $0.12 per share since 2020.
And it currently pays out a super-high dividend yield of 13.5%, which should be safe as long as rates don't rise.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

3 Financial Stocks to Watch After the Fed Held Rates Steady

Key Points
Alphabet is the largest holding in most funds Ackman manages.
Going public will allow the fund to avoid investor redemptions.
Legendary investor Bill Ackman is taking a new closed-end fund public today at an initial public offering price of $50 a share.
The fund is called Pershing Square USA, and Ackman, the CEO of hedge fund Pershing Square Holdings, initially hoped to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion for it through the offering. The ticker for the new fund will be PSUS. At the moment, it looks like the IPO will attract about $5 billion.
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Ackman is also taking his asset management firm public. That firm, Pershing Square Inc., will manage the PSUS fund as well as Pershing Square Holdings, which trades in the United Kingdom, and Howard Hughes Holdings (NYSE: HHH). The management firm will trade under the ticker PS.
To attract more investors to the PSUS IPO, Ackman is offering one free share of Pershing Square Inc. for every five PSUS shares purchased today.
It's not yet clear exactly what PSUS will invest in. According to the prospectus the company filed with the Securities and Exchange, the Pershing Square USA fund will invest in "large minority stakes in high-quality, predominantly North American-listed, large-capitalization growth companies at attractive valuations during periods in which we believe they have underperformed their potential and/or when we believe they are undervalued."
That's very similar to what Pershing Square Holdings invests in now. It holds large stakes in Google parent company Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC), Brookfield (NYSE: BN), Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) , among other companies.
Alphabet is the top holding in all Pershing Square-related funds.
The new fund may also make small investments in alternative assets, such as private credit and interest rates.
Going public avoids investor redemptions
Taking a fund public is a way to avoid redemptions by investors. Instead of demanding their money back at the net asset value, as open-end fund investors are entitled to do, investors in PSUS will have to sell their shares at the market price to exit the investment, as with any other stock.
It's thought that Ackman is attempting to build a holding company similar to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKB) by listing it publicly and, of course, focusing on companies that are underperforming their potential or are undervalued, exactly the kind of long-term value investing that made former Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett rich and famous.
"Our long-term goal for Pershing Square Inc. is to build one of the most valuable companies in the world by generating one of the best long-term performance records of any investor ever," Ackman wrote in a letter to investors.
Attaining Buffett's stature in the investment community won't be easy for Ackman, however. Earlier in his career, he was known as an activist short-seller. That included an ugly, five-year battle against supplement maker Herbalife, which Ackman accused of being a pyramid scheme. In the end, that short position resulted in huge losses for Pershing Square.
Ackman has since exited the short-selling business and says he's now focused on long-term growth and value creation in his portfolios.
Ackman is also trying to attract retail investors to the IPO. He reduced the minimum purchase order from $5,000 to $250 and is partnering with retail brokerages to tap their user bases. We'll find out this week how well that strategy worked.
As with all IPOs, it's wise to see what the share price does in the days and weeks following the offering before diving in. About half of all IPOs pop on the first day, only to trade lower in the days that follow.
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Matthew Benjamin has positions in Alphabet and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Brookfield Corporation, Howard Hughes, Meta Platforms, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square USA Fund IPOs Today. What Stocks Will It Hold?

Key Points
Several major market indexes have fallen into correction territory.
The war in Iran has roiled stocks.
Ackman said he sees an opportunity, but the key is to focus on quality businesses.
While the stock market has actually held up better than most strategists and analysts might have expected, especially given the surging price of oil due to the Iran war, both the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have fallen into correction territory, which means they are both down at least 10%.
Timing the market is never easy, but it's been especially difficult for investors to know whether the conflict in the Middle East will be short-lived or could last longer.
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However, billionaire investor Bill Ackman has some investing advice right now: buy the dip on quality businesses.
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend.
One of the best times in a...
-- Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 30, 2026
Ackman runs Pershing Square Capital Management, the investment manager of Pershing Square Holdings, and has become one of the more closely watched billionaire investors in the modern era. Should investors listen to him?
What stocks is Ackman referring to?
Pershing runs a highly concentrated U.S. equities portfolio, with 11 stocks accounting for over $15.5 billion of capital at the end of 2025.
Based on Pershing's portfolio, one could conclude that Ackman is generally referring to the "Magnificent Seven." Pershing has piled into this group over the past year and now has a significant amount of the portfolio invested in Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. Other stocks in the "Magnificent Seven," like Microsoft, have also been hammered and now trade at much cheaper multiples.
As you can see, valuations have certainly retreated. Now, while the Iran war has seemingly hurt most sectors of the market, artificial intelligence stocks were already struggling before, due to concerns about excessive investment in AI infrastructure and circular financing, among others.
Ackman has also been quite outspoken about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government-sponsored entities that Ackman believes the Trump administration will eventually release from conservatorship and conduct initial public offerings for. "And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon," Ackman wrote on the platform X.
Now, AI concerns are likely to linger, at least in the near term, and who actually knows how the war with Iran will turn out. But if you have a long-term investing horizon, investors can certainly heed Ackman's advice.
And it doesn't have to be with the "Magnificent Seven" or Fannie and Freddie, which carry several risks of their own.
Look for stocks tied to businesses where the core thesis and business remain intact. If the only thing impacting them is the war in Iran, and the business is likely to be fine after the conflict, then now is a good time to buy for the long term.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Billionaire Investor Bill Ackman Has Some Investing Advice Right Now: Buy the Dip on Quality

Many investors gave up on housing stocks after 30-year fixed mortgage rates jumped from the rock bottom low of under 3% in 2021 to nearly 8% at the peak in 2023. However, several housing stocks, particularly homebuilders, are turning the corner and are poised to thrive in 2026. Below are five reasons to be bullish on homebuilders in 2026:
The U.S. Housing Supply is Restricted
The U.S housing market has faced supply challenges for a handful of years. Following the devastation of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and housing meltdown, homebuilders have been underbuilding out of an abundance of caution. Meanwhile, over the past decade, private-equity giants, most notably Blackstone (BLK), have scooped up hundreds of thousands of single-family homes and apartment complexes, worsening the housing supply crisis. According to data from the Federal Bank of St. Louis, the monthly supply of new houses in the United States is at the lowest level since September 2024.
Image Source: FRED
Existing Homeowners with Low Mortgage Rates are Staying Put
The COVID and post-COVID economic stimulus and low-rate environment led to a housing boom in the United States. With mortgage rates currently around 6%, roughly half of U.S homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%. This dispersion has essentially frozen the market for existing home sales and caused a ‘Golden Handcuff’ phenomenon. In other words, new home seekers will likely need to rely on new construction to fill the void.
Image Source: FRED
Mortgage Rates Are Likely to Decline in 2026
Most Wall Street analysts expect mortgage rates to decline gradually in 2026. A scenario where rates decline only moderately may cause a perfect storm for homebuilders as demand increases, but rates stay high enough so that existing homeowners with low rates are not motivated to move.
Washington Works to Increase U.S. Housing Supply
The Trump Administration has proposed increasing the supply of homes in the United States. The bipartisan-supported plan aims to construct 1 million entry-level homes. Additionally, Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac will purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to reduce interest rates.
Homebuilders Sport Robust Estimates & Improving Technicals
After reporting several negative EPS quarters, Wall Street analysts expect homebuilders such as DR Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN) to return to double-digit EPS growth by next year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Meanwhile, the price action and relative strength among homebuilders is undeniable. For example, Toll Brothers (TOL) shares have already climbed a robust 19% year-to-date.
Bottom Line
While the rock-bottom mortgage rates of the early 2020s are a distant memory, the current landscape has created a unique structural advantage for homebuilders. By bridging the gap between a massive supply deficit and a renewed federal push for affordability, homebuilders are in play.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Why "Golden Handcuffs" are a Gift to Homebuilders in 2026

Key Points
AGNC Investment and Ares Capital offer very attractive dividend yields that appeal to income-focused investors.
AGNC invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) while Ares Capital is a business development company (BDC) that lends to middle-market companies.
Both companies are sensitive to changes in interest rates, but in different ways.
If you're an investor looking to generate passive income from your portfolio, dividend stocks are for you. Companies that pay dividends tend to outperform those that don't, but not all dividend payers are created equal. Some companies prioritize dividend growth, while others focus on achieving high dividend yields.
Two stocks with very appealing dividend yields are AGNC Investment (NASDAQ: AGNC) and Ares Capital (NASDAQ: ARCC), which offer yields of 12.7% and 9.4%, respectively. This can make these stocks highly appealing to investors prioritizing income over growth. However, they are distinct businesses with varying risks, and are not ideal for every investor.
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If you're weighing an investment in high-yield stocks, here's what to know about AGNC Investment and Ares Capital.
AGNC invests heavily in mortgage-backed securities
AGNC Investment is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). It differs from other REITs because it doesn't own physical buildings that it leases or rents. Instead, the company invests in bundles of home loans using leverage, which is how it can pay a double-digit percentage dividend yield.
The company invests primarily in agency MBSs, which are mortgages guaranteed by government-sponsored entities, such as Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation). These loans carry less risk because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
However, to juice returns, AGNC uses leverage, borrowing short-term through repurchase agreements or other debt (with repayment periods generally of less than a year) and investing those funds in long-term MBS. As of Sept. 30, AGNC's at-risk leverage ratio was about 7.5 times its tangible net book value. As a result, its earnings and book value can fluctuate based on changes in the yield curve.
Ares Capital extends loans to overlooked middle-market companies
Ares Capital operates as a business development company (BDC). Both BDCs and REITs are pass-through entities that are legally required to distribute almost all of their taxable income to investors, which is why they have high dividend yields. Besides that, they are very different businesses.
Ares Capital invests in middle-market companies, those with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ranging from $10 million to $250 million. During the past several decades, banks have pulled back from funding these companies due to stricter capital requirements, which have led them to prioritize loans to large corporations over those to smaller and mid-market companies.
It primarily invests in first- and second-lien loans, which have priority in the event of bankruptcy. Its portfolio comprises 587 companies across 34 industries, with no single company accounting for more than 1.5%, providing diversification that should help mitigate risk. The weighted-average yield on its portfolio is about 10%, and it primarily invests in floating-rate loans, making it an appealing choice during periods of rising interest rates.
Both stocks are sensitive to changes in interest rates
When comparing AGNC Investment and Ares Capital, both offer attractive dividend yields, but they perform differently in various environments.
Because AGNC borrows on a short-term basis and invests in long-term MBSs, it is vulnerable to changes in interest rates across the yield curve. The yield curve describes the slope between short- and long-term interest rates. If short-term interest rates decline and long-term interest rates remain elevated, this can benefit AGNC by allowing it to borrow at a lower rate while investing in higher-yielding long-maturity MBSs. This widening spread boosts its earnings and, in turn, the dividend.
Ares Capital, on the other hand, invests heavily in floating-rate debt. When interest rates rise, as they did in 2022 and 2023, it boosts Ares Capital's income, assuming default rates remain the same. However, when interest rates decline, this can be a headwind for its business because it earns less on its floating-rate loans.
Which stock is right for you?
Currently, markets are pricing in additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which will help lower short-term interest rates. Meanwhile, interest rates on the longer end of the curve could stay elevated or drop more slowly than the short end due to concerns about structural inflation. These dynamics should benefit AGNC Investment over Ares Capital in the near term.
While AGNC offers higher potential rewards from a steepening curve, its leverage makes it volatile and sensitive to rate swings. Meanwhile, Ares Capital provides more stability, as its floating-rate model enables it to thrive in a "higher-for-longer" environment, generating steady income from elevated rates with less price erosion.
For investors looking to play near-term tailwinds, AGNC is a good choice. But for investors seeking steady income, I think Ares Capital is a better long-term investment.
Should you buy stock in AGNC Investment Corp. right now?
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Courtney Carlsen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Ares Capital. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Better Dividend Stock: AGNC Investment vs. Ares Capital

Key Points
Both Ackman and Burry have been very vocal publicly about two stocks that previously flew under the radar.
Both of these stocks carry significant regulatory and political risk.
However, the Trump administration holds significant power over the fate of these stocks and could help turn them into multibaggers.
Few investors are more closely followed in the modern era of investing than Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, the investment manager of Pershing Square Holdings, and Michael Burry, who famously made bets against the housing market before its collapse during the Great Recession. Burry, who previously ran Scion Asset Management, recently shut down his fund and launched a newsletter on Substack, where he sharesinvestment adviceand knowledge about the stock market.
Now, investors should never mindlessly follow the "smart money's" recommendations for several reasons, including that you don't know the true timelines behind their trades. However, Burry and Ackman have made it very clear that they have high conviction in these two stocks. And the key could lie with President Donald Trump and his administration, which currently has the power to make game-changing decisions that turn these stocks into multibaggers.
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The history of Fannie and Freddie
These two government-sponsored entities (GSEs), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC), have a long and storied journey. Both play a critical role in the mortgage market by essentially serving as the secondary market and providing liquidity. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase mortgages from banks and other institutions, then package them into mortgage-backed securities for investors to purchase.
Banks and other mortgage providers are limited in the mortgages they can hold on their balance sheets, so Fannie and Freddie enable them to transfer these mortgages off their balance sheets, allowing them to continue meeting demand. Fannie largely purchases mortgages from large banks, while Freddie buys mortgages from smaller lenders. Fannie and Freddie have a monopoly on this business, primarily because they are backed by an implied government guarantee.
Government involvement in these two mortgage giants traces back to the Great Recession. The GSEs took on too many subprime mortgages and faced massive losses, forcing the U.S. government to step in. The U.S. Treasury Department injected over $187 billion into both companies and, in return, received $190 billion in senior preferred stock and warrants that give it the right to purchase nearly 80% of each company's common shares.
The preferred shares were supposed to yield an annual 10%, but eventually -- and quite controversially -- the agreement changed to a "net worth sweep," in which Fannie and Freddie simply handed over their profits to the government. The government would go on to reap over $300 billion from these payments. During Trump's first term, the administration ended this agreement and set forth a plan, including capital requirements, under which Fannie and Freddie could start retaining their profits and build capital that would eventually forge a path for them to exit government conservatorship.
The complicated path to being released from conservatorship
The Trump administration has indicated that it wants to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship, and these highly profitable entities have had no trouble building capital. Fannie alone generated at least $17 billion in profits in both 2023 and 2024. At the end of the third quarter of this year, Fannie had over $105 billion of shareholder equity and appears to be about $44 billion short of meeting one of its regulatory capital requirements.
The Trump administration is reportedly looking into an initial public offering (IPO) that could help Fannie and Freddie close the gap. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the administration is contemplating an IPO of around $30 billion, which would be the largest ever. However, several issues remain. The first obvious one is significant dilution. Not only does the government own senior preferred stock and warrants that would significantly dilute new investors, but the GSEs also have junior preferred debt.
One proposal from Ackman is to have the government count prior payments from the "net worth sweep" agreement toward repayment of the senior preferred stock. The government could still exercise its warrants, potentially reaping hundreds of billions in profits. This may also be beneficial from a political standpoint in advancing a potential IPO, as there is an ongoing question about how much Congress would be involved in the process of releasing the two GSEs from conservatorship.
"To do an IPO without Congress, you would basically need to eliminate some of the government's ownership position, which is an open legal question of whether that can occur," Daniel Hornung, a senior fellow at MIT and former deputy director of the National Economic Council under former President Joe Biden, told Politico back in August.
Another roadblock to an IPO is what would actually happen to mortgage rates when Fannie and Freddie are once again independent. Some experts suggest mortgage rates could increase by 0.5% to 1%, primarily because Fannie and Freddie would no longer have the implied backing of the government and, therefore, would be riskier.
If this is the case, there will be little political appetite to release the GSEs, given the current housing crisis in the U.S. However, Fannie and Freddie may still have an implied government backing, even if they aren't under government conservatorship. Similar to the largest banks in the U.S., such as Bank of America, the government, for better or worse, simply cannot afford to allow these two entities to fail because they have become too big to fail.
Burry, who said in his Substack post that he has a large position in Fannie and Freddie, acknowledged that "there remains a final steep, windy and rocky climb to IPO for both," largely due to political and regulatory factors.
How much are Fannie and Freddie worth?
This is a difficult question, given that we don't know what happens with all the preferred stock and the government's warrants. However, I think it's safe to say that if they can figure everything out, Fannie and Freddie would be worth multiples of what they trade at now. Common shares of Fannie currently trade at around a $13 billion market cap, while Freddie is near a $7 billion market cap.
Ackman has said Fannie and Freddie could collectively be worth $400 billion if their stocks were moved from the over-the-counter markets to the New York Stock Exchange, although the government's stake would be worth about $300 billion in this scenario. Burry believes the two GSEs could trade at around 1.5 times to 2 times their book or equity value one or two years after an IPO.
Interested investors should understand that this remains a highly risky investment due to the numerous political and regulatory factors mentioned above. The good news for the bulls is that Trump appears to have a greater appetite than any president before him to release the GSEs from conservatorship, which is why the real window for this to occur may be over the next few years.
The junior preferred shares are the safer play because they face less risk of being wiped out and have priority over the common shares. However, they also offer less upside. The common shares are the highest risk-reward play. Ultimately, I think the common shares are worth a smaller, more speculative position, but nothing too aggressive.
Should you buy stock in Federal National Mortgage Association right now?
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Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bram Berkowitz has positions in Federal Home Loan Mortgage. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Wall Street's Top Investors, Like Bill Ackman and Michael Burry, Are Betting on 2 Stocks That President Donald Trump Could Help Turn Into Multibaggers

Key Points
Annaly Capital Management's stock yields nearly 13%.
The company primarily invests in agency mortgage-backed securities.
It uses leverage in an attempt to enhance returns.
Many investors look to invest in dividend-paying stocks. If you're one of them, real estate investment trusts (REITs) provide an excellent way to do so. That's because, legally, they have to pay out at least 90% of their taxable income as dividends.
Most people think of REITs investing in various properties, like offices, retail space, apartment buildings, and data centers. But REITs can also invest in mortgages. These are called mortgage REITs (mREITs)
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Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) is an mREIT. The stock offers a tempting 12.8% dividend yield. While that merits attention, should you buy the stock?
Understanding the business
Annaly Capital Management primarily invests in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These typically account for the high-80% range of its portfolio. It also holds non-agency residential mortgage loans and mortgage servicing rights (they service a pool of residential mortgage loans in exchange for a portion of the interest payments).
These pools of mortgages packaged together have guarantees by agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. That provides a high level of confidence that Annaly won't have defaults that affect the regular payments.
If that seems like a low-risk investment strategy, Annaly tries to juice the returns through borrowing, or leverage. It had leverage under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of 7.1 times equity as of Sept. 30.
Typically, Annaly finances its purchases with short-term debt. While leverage can boost returns, higher leverage also raises the company's risk. That includes changing economic conditions and interest rates changing (i.e., the spread between short- and long-term yields narrowing).
Recent results
Annaly Capital Management's results have shown steady improvement. Its third-quarter earnings available for distribution (EAD) grew to $0.73 a share. That's 10.6% higher than a year ago.
EAD is a key performance indicator (KPI) since it measures how much money the company has to pay dividends. It's calculated by making adjustments for certain items, such as non-recurring and noncash expenses, to its GAAP net income.
Another KPI is annualized EAD return on equity, which was 14.7%. A year ago, it was about 13%.
Volatile dividends
Annaly Capital Management's shares presently have a very high 12.8% dividend yield as of Nov. 7. By comparison, the S&P 500 index yields 1.2%.
It currently pays a $0.70 quarterly dividend. Last quarter's EAD covered the payout.
However, it's important to note that Annaly's results fluctuate based on interest rates. Hence, its dividend payments change, up and down, too. For instance, quarterly dividends were $0.88 in 2022 before dropping to $0.65 the following year.
Putting it together
For those looking for sure and steadily increasing dividends, Annaly Capital Management's stock isn't a good fit. Personally, there's too much risk involved in the company's results and dividends for me to invest.
After all, while the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates could benefit Annaly, it also depends on how long-term yields change. And future rate cuts aren't a sure thing. Even the Federal Reserve, after cutting short-term rates at its last meeting, indicated that reductions aren't guaranteed at its next meeting. If the central bank isn't sure what action it will take, how can investors know?
That's a lot of uncertainty, and the economy faces heightened risk, including persistent inflation, increased layoffs, and the prolonged government shutdown that has resulted in a lack of economic data being released.
Hence, despite the high dividend yield, I'd pass on the shares.
Should you invest $1,000 in Annaly Capital Management right now?
Before you buy stock in Annaly Capital Management, consider this:
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Lawrence Rothman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Should You Buy Annaly Capital Management Stock Right Now?

Key Points
The FICO score inventor continues its war with the new administration's FHFA Director Bill Pulte.
Pulte said this week that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will allow lenders to use a FICO alternative in scoring customers for mortgages.
Fair Isaac has looked unbeatable in recent years, but it may be unable to raise prices as aggressively going forward.
Shares of Fair Isaac (NYSE: FICO) fell this week, down 13.4% as of 12:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
FICO has had somewhat of a monopoly on credit scoring, which has recently paved the way for large price increases, the most recent of which occurred in January. But this week, current Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte continued his mini-war against the company in the name of lowering costs for homeowners.
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Can VantageScore eat into FICO's market share?
This week, Pulte posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the current government-sponsored entities (GSEs) that buy mortgages, Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC), will allow lenders to use something called VantageScore 4.0, a new potential FICO competitor, without having to build new infrastructure.
VantageScore is a new credit score developed by the three major credit bureaus in 2017. It incorporates alternative data and some less stringent traditional data requirements to better score people, say, in rural areas or with less credit history.
Fair Isaac stock fell hard in the wake of Pulte's tweets, as the two big GSEs guarantee about half of all mortgages in the United States. Therefore, if a significant portion of mortgages were now scored using an alternative, FICO could potentially lose market share relative to its current near-100% share.
But the threat may not be as dire as all that
Even after this week's decline, Fair Isaac still trades at a whopping 70 times earnings, which means investors aren't exactly expecting huge declines in market share or revenue. This may be for a couple of reasons.
First, VantageScore appears to be an option for a smaller subset of borrowers with limited credit history. It's also unclear how much lenders will want to use it, except in cases where the current FICO score excludes a borrower.
Second, the FHFA had already mandated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to use VantageScore back in late 2022, while giving the homebuying market a three-year grace period to implement it. So, this week's news isn't really new information, although Pulte appears to have sped up the acceptance process while also making VantageScore easier to use on existing technology.
Moreover, perhaps the allowance of VantageScore will hold off the threat of federal agencies turning to "bi-merge" scoring -- allowing mortgages to be scored by only two credit bureaus. Currently, the standard for GSEs is a "tri-merge" system for both FICO and VantageScore, which requires all three credit bureaus to run a score. There had been talk of allowing bi-merge to lower costs in recent years, which would also reduce the volume of FICO scores. So, perhaps this new competition will ward off that threat.
Still, it does appear that the large price hikes FICO has implemented over the past few years, and most recently in January, will cease for now. Even though FICO scores cost only $4.95 today, the new FHFA director has previously called FICO's price hikes and seems keen to show how the administration is lowering costs.
Should you invest $1,000 in Fair Isaac right now?
Before you buy stock in Fair Isaac, consider this:
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Why Fair Isaac Corporation Fell This Week

AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) appears to be an attractive investment option for those seeking a robust income stream, thanks to its impressive dividend yield of 15.6%. Its high yield stands out especially for investors seeking to generate passive income from their holdings.
In recent years, AGNC has faced challenges, primarily due to the rising interest rates. While the stock has underperformed, there is potential for recovery and improved performance as market conditions evolve. However, before you invest in AGNC for its high yield, consider these points first.
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How AGNC affords its high yield dividend
AGNC Investment is an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to the residential real estate market without directly purchasing properties. As a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT), AGNC focuses on purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are bundles of home loans sold to investors.
AGNC takes a conservative approach by investing primarily in mortgages backed by government-sponsored enterprises, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (commonly known as Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (often referred to as Freddie Mac).
One of the most appealing features of AGNC is its ultra-high dividend yield. You may wonder how a company can offer such a high dividend when current mortgage rates are lower than this.
The answer lies in AGNC's use of leverage. AGNC utilizes instruments such as repurchase agreements and short-term debt to finance its investments in ABSs, which usually have longer maturities. These arrangements enable AGNC to borrow money at relatively low interest rates because they have a repayment timeline of one year or less.
Highlighting AGNC's interest rate risk
AGNC's use of leverage can indeed amplify profits, but it also exposes the company to risks, particularly fluctuations in interest rates. To visualize this, consider the yield curve, a graphic representation that shows the interest rates of bonds of similar quality across different time frames.
AGNC performs best when short-term interest rates are lower than the long-term rates it earns on its MBS investments. That's because it can borrow at lower interest rates on a short-term basis and invest those funds in higher-yielding MBS.
However, the economic landscape has undergone significant shifts in recent years. Short-term interest rates rose, while AGNC held on to longer-term MBS that were purchased years earlier during a period of lower rates. Consequently, this has created a challenging situation for AGNC because short-term borrowing costs increased much more than the returns on its existing MBS.
In 2022, AGNC earned $1.6 billion in interest income, while interest expense was $625 million. Last year, it earned $2.9 billion in interest income, but higher borrowing costs resulted in interest expense surging to $2.9 billion, leaving it with a net interest income of just $18 million.
While rising rates increased borrowing costs for AGNC, they also impact the value of its investment portfolio. That's because there is an inverse relationship in play here: When interest rates rise, the value of existing fixed-income holdings typically declines. Since the start of 2022, AGNC's tangible net book value per share has plummeted by 48% and now sits at $8.31.
This dynamic hurt AGNC's stock performance during the past few years. Since the start of 2022, AGNC's total return (which includes reinvested dividends) has been -0.4%. For comparison, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) returned 31.9% over this period, while the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF returned -12.2%, illustrating how rising interest rates have weighed on the real estate sector as a whole.
The bull case for AGNC
There is a silver lining. AGNC has faced some market headwinds recently, but the worst could be behind it. The company has been investing in a wave of higher-yield mortgages, thereby boosting the yield on its MBS portfolio.
At the end of the first quarter, AGNC's average asset yield was 4.87%, up from 3.9% two years earlier. Not only that, but its net interest spread, or the difference between the yield earnings on its MBS minus its funding cost, increased from 1.91% at the end of Q4 to 2.12% at the end of Q1.
Short-term interest rates could decrease if the Federal Reserve continues to cut its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. Last year, the Fed reduced this rate from an upper limit of 5.5% to 4.5%. Many expected further cuts, but uncertainty around tariffs and their potential impact on inflation has left the Fed on pause for now.
Is AGNC right for you?
If inflationary pressures don't reemerge, the Fed could continue to cut rates, which could help reduce short-term borrowing costs. With its MBS portfolio yield rising, this could be a favorable tailwind for AGNC, as it would boost its net interest spread and the book value of its portfolio. If you have a positive outlook on the prospect of declining interest rates and are seeking a high-yielding investment, AGNC could be for you.
However, I don't think AGNC is right for all investors. AGNC may expose investors to more interest rate risks than they would prefer, and its performance in recent years highlights this risk. Although it could do well if shorter-term interest rates fall, it remains vulnerable if inflationary pressures reemerge, which could lead to higher borrowing costs once again. Dividend investors seeking steady, reliable returns are better off looking elsewhere for yield.
Should you invest $1,000 in AGNC Investment Corp. right now?
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Is AGNC Investment Stock a Buy Now?

Bill Ackman built a net worth of $9.3 billion by spotting promising opportunities. The hedge fund manager doesn't usually reveal the opportunities he likes to the public. However, he recently made an exception.
In a lengthy social media post on Dec. 30, 2024, Ackman said, "As we look forward [to] 2025, one investment in our portfolio stands out for large asymmetric upside versus downside so I thought I would share it." The billionaire investor thinks this stock could skyrocket roughly 500% by early 2026. So why does Wall Street expect it to plunge?
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A Fannie Mae fan
Ackman noted in his post on X (formerly known as Twitter) that his hedge fund has owned Federal National Mortgage Association (OTC: FNMA) (commonly known as Fannie Mae) for more than 10 years. However, he acknowledged that the performance of the stock has "not been great."
Although Fannie Mae wasn't a winner throughout much of the time Ackman has owned the stock, it's been a much different story in recent months. Since the U.S. elections on Nov. 6, 2024, the share price of the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) has quadrupled.
The reason for Fannie Mae's surge is the same as why Ackman likes the stock's prospects so much. There's considerable speculation that the Trump administration will privatize both Fannie Mae and another GSE, Federal Home Loan Mortage Corp. (OTC: FMCC) (commonly known as Freddie Mac).
Ackman envisioned a scenario where the federal conservatorship of Fannie Mae would end. He projected that an initial public offering (IPO) would be possible by the fourth quarter of 2026, with a value of around $34 per share. That's roughly 6x (or 500%) higher than Fannie Mae's current share price.
Why Wall Street analysts aren't big fans
Considering Fannie Mae's huge run-up since November, it appears that many investors are almost as bullish about Fannie Mae as Ackman. However, Wall Street analysts aren't in that group.
Financial markets data and infrastructure provider LSEG surveyed two analysts in January who cover Fannie Mae. One rated the stock as an underperform while the other recommended selling. The average analysts' price target for Fannie Mae reflects an expectation that the stock will plunge around 56%.
Why are these analysts so pessimistic about Fannie Mae? Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), a unit of Stifel Financial, foresees a significant risk that the anticipated privatization of the GSEs won't happen, according to reports.
Granted, the New York-based investment bank isn't as negative about Fannie Mae as others. KBW set a price target of $4 for the stock, which is around 29% below the current share price.
Is Fannie Mae stock a buy?
Fannie Mae doesn't look like a great stock to buy if privatization is off the table. The GSE's earnings fell nearly 14% year over year in its most recent quarter. As we've already seen, the stock has performed dismally without the near-term prospects of privatization.
But Ackman's bullish take on the stock is fully warranted if the federal conservatorship of Fannie Mae ends. The billionaire hedge fund manager is optimistic this will happen, too. In his X post, Ackman said: "Trump likes big deals and this would be the biggest deal in history. I am confident he will get it done." Based on the low price targets and negative ratings, though, Wall Street obviously isn't confident that Fannie Mae will be privatized.
So is Fannie Mae stock a buy? Ackman cautioned in his social media post, "There remains a high degree of uncertainty about the ultimate outcome so you should limit your exposure to what you can afford to lose if you choose to invest." I think his warning is appropriate.
Should you invest $1,000 in Federal National Mortgage Association right now?
Before you buy stock in Federal National Mortgage Association, consider this:
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Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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