EOG Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily in producing basins in the United States, the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago and internationally. The company was formerly known as Enron Oil & Gas Company. EOG Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

EOG Resources, Inc.

ConocoPhillips COP is a U.S.-based upstream energy firm having a diversified portfolio of low-cost assets spread across 14 countries globally. The company, being primarily involved in the upstream sector, is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. Oil and gas prices are highly volatile and influenced by several factors, including supply and demand dynamics, global economic growth and geopolitical developments.
However, COP’s balance sheet strength enables it to weather unfavorable pricing environments. ConocoPhillips boasts a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 26.4%, significantly lower than the sub-industry average of 49.1%. By the end of the second quarter, ConocoPhillips had $5.7 billion in cash and short-term investments, which demonstrates its strong liquidity position. Furthermore, the company continues to generate a resilient free cash flow that enables it to strengthen its balance sheet further. ConocoPhillips’ low-cost production assets, portfolio optimization efforts, cost reductions and margin enhancements are expected to add $7 billion of free cash flow by 2029.
Thus, even though ConocoPhillips’ business model is exposed to commodity price volatility, its strong balance sheet and resilient cash flows should enable it to navigate unfavorable business environments by reducing financial stress and improving overall financial resilience.
EOG & CVX Also Have Lower Debt Exposure
Like COP, EOG Resources EOG and Chevron Corporation CVX also have lower debt exposure.
EOG Resources is a leading independent exploration and production company with operations focused on the prolific acres in the United States as well as several resource-rich international basins. The company has a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 12.66%, which is significantly lower than that of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy giant with operations ranging from oil production to refining and marketing. The company operates across several countries. CVX’s debt-to-capitalization ratio of 16.67% demonstrates lower dependence on debt capital.
COP's Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of COP have plunged 12.1% over the past year compared with the 13.6% decline of the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, COP trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 5.38X. This is below the broader industry average of 11.06X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s 2025 earnings has been revised upward over the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COP, EOG and CVX each currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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Strong Balance Sheet to Support ConocoPhillips' Long-Term Stability

ConocoPhillips COP and EOG Resources, Inc. EOG are two leading exploration and production companies, with operations mainly tied to commodity prices. Over the past year, COP has declined 10.9%, underperforming EOG’s 2.6% fall. But, as we all know, that price movement is not the sole parameter in determining the investment objectives. Let’s examine the underlying fundamentals and the primary drivers of their business models.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ConocoPhillips
Long-Cycle Projects to Generate Handsome Cash Flows
ConocoPhillips is investing heavily in a large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Qatar and oil development in Alaska. Due to the scale of these projects, it will take several years to complete them and start generating significant cash flows. Once the projects come online, the upstream energy major expects to generate $7 billion more in extra free cash by 2029, almost twice what all analysts expected the firm to generate in 2025, as stated on the second-quarterearnings call
Moreover, with a new 20-year agreement to buy 4 million tonnes per annum from Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 project in Texas, ConocoPhillips has further broadened its LNG presence. This is on top of the exploration and production company’s earlier investment and secured gas supply from the first phase of the project, likely to commence operation in 2027. The development of this front has further secured COP’s long-term cash flows while strengthening its global gas supply network.
Marathon Oil Takeover: Unlocking Superior Value
By late last year, ConocoPhillips completed the acquisition of Marathon Oil Corporation. The buyout added more premium oil and natural gas resources to its portfolio, where the production costs are relatively low. This means COP is well-positioned to survive periods when the commodity prices turn low.
The upstream energy giant also anticipated significant cost synergies from the Marathon Oil takeover. Now the obvious question: Is the company actually witnessing all the benefits from the buyout? On the latestearnings call ConocoPhillips revealed that it is doing better than expected from the takeover.
COP initially projected an annual cost synergy of $500 million from the Marathon Oil acquisition. However, during the second-quarterearnings call it stated that it now expects to save more than $1 billion annually. COP is likely to realize this gain by the end of 2025, without needing to drill a single well.
Investors should know that ConocoPhillips believes that it has acquired more valuable oil and gas resources from the Marathon Oil takeover than it had earlier estimated, thanks to the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States.
Shareholder Returns Mostly Tied to Oil & Gas Prices
ConocoPhillips has decided to return roughly 45% of its operating cash flows to shareholders this year. This signifies that the company’s reward for shareholders is tied to oil and gas prices, as the operating cash flows are the money the company generates from its core operations, primarily from selling oil and gas.
EOG Resources
Expands Its Energy Future With New Land, Low-Cost Gas
EOG has a strong focus on efficiently drilling oil and gas resources while exploring new areas. Notably, the upstream giant recently purchased Encino Energy’s Utica shale assets in Ohio, gaining access to more than 1 million acres of land and billions of barrels of oil and gas for the future. On top of it, the exploration and production player is developing its low-cost Dorado natural gas project in Texas and working on new exploration in the United Arab Emirates. Essentially, EOG is expanding its land holdings and projects to further brighten its production outlook.
Dividend Reliability: A Stronger Track Record
When it comes to dividend reliability, EOG has a stronger track record. Investors should know that in the past 27 years, the upstream player has never cut its dividend, reflecting an average growth rate of 19%. Importantly, as a form of shareholder rewards for 2025, EOG is committed to at least $3.5 billion in returns.
COP vs. EOG: Which is a Better Stock?
Coming to the stocks’ valuation story, both the upstream players are undervalued currently. While COP is trading at a trailing 12-month enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 5.44x, EOG is trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 5.58x. Both are below the broader industry average of 11.03X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
But, investors shouldn’t rush to bet on the COP or EOG as the ongoing trade tensions could adversely impact overall energy demand. However, those who have already invested should continue to hold the stocks. Currently, both COP and EOG carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It is just that the growth story differs for the two stocks. Investors who have invested in ConocoPhillips would get exposure to the LNG growth play, while for EOG, investors will get access to more diversified operations in shale plays with quicker paybacks.
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ConocoPhillips, EOG Showdown: LNG Growth Story or Shale Drilling Stock?

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (Symbol: XLE) where we have detected an approximate $220.3 million dollar outflow -- that's a 0.8% decrease week over week (from 307,274,200 to 304,774,200). Among the largest underlying components of XLE, in trading today EOG Resources, Inc. (Symbol: EOG) is down about 0.2%, Williams Cos Inc (Symbol: WMB) is down about 0.1%, and Kinder Morgan Inc. (Symbol: KMI) is lower by about 0.4%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XLE Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of XLE, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, XLE's low point in its 52 week range is $74.49 per share, with $97.92 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $88.01. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Notable ETF Outflow Detected - XLE, EOG, WMB, KMI

ConocoPhillips COP, a leading energy company worldwide, is primarily involved in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), bitumen and natural gas. The company’s involvement in the upstream sector makes its overall financial performance heavily dependent on the oil and gas pricing environment. With the West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") spot price close to $65 per barrel, it is worth assessing whether COP’s operations remain profitable in this pricing scenario.
ConocoPhillips has a diversified asset base spread across 14 countries. The company’s portfolio includes assets in the prolific shale basins of the United States, the oil sands in Canada, and conventional assets in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, which support low-cost production. Notably, in the U.S. Lower 48, COP has an advantaged inventory position that can support operations at a break-even cost as low as $40 per barrel WTI cost. Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil prices are projected to decline sharply in the coming quarters of this year and into 2026 due to an oversupplied market resulting from production increases by the OPEC+ and sluggish demand growth for the commodity.
However, COP’s high-quality, low-cost portfolio of assets makes it resilient to these difficult pricing environments and allows it to maintain stable performance and sustainable cash flows. The company mentioned that it continues to prioritize investing in its high-quality portfolio to generate higher free cash flows and stronger returns for shareholders.
High-Quality Assets: The Core of XOM and EOG's Competitive Edge
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM and EOG Resources, Inc. EOG are two global energy firms that can thrive even during periods of low oil prices.
ExxonMobil’s advantaged assets in the Permian Basin of the United States and Guyana, with low breakeven costs, should support its bottom-line profitability. The company mentioned on a recentearnings callthat it plans to lower its break-even costs to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030. In other words, even if crude oil prices decline significantly, XOM will be able to maintain its financial performance and generate profits.
EOG Resources is a leading independent exploration and production company with operations focused on the prolific acres in the United States as well as several resource-rich international basins. EOG boasts a high-return, low-decline asset base and stands out among the low-cost producers in the United States. The company’s focus on maintaining a resilient balance sheet and lowering production costs should enable it to weather oil price volatility.
COP’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of COP have plunged 14.9% over the past year compared with the 22.2% decline of the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, COP trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 5.33x. This is below the broader industry average of 10.79x.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s 2025 earnings has been revised downward over the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COP, XOM and EOG currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Is ConocoPhillips a Bullish Bet Despite Volatile Oil Prices?

Investors considering a purchase of EOG Resources, Inc. (Symbol: EOG) shares, but cautious about paying the going market price of $117.61/share, might benefit from considering selling puts among the alternative strategies at their disposal. One interesting put contract in particular, is the January 2027 put at the $75 strike, which has a bid at the time of this writing of $2.40. Collecting that bid as the premium represents a 3.2% return against the $75 commitment, or a 2.3% annualized rate of return (at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost).
Selling a put does not give an investor access to EOG's upside potential the way owning shares would, because the put seller only ends up owning shares in the scenario where the contract is exercised. And the person on the other side of the contract would only benefit from exercising at the $75 strike if doing so produced a better outcome than selling at the going market price. (Do options carry counterparty risk? This and six other common options myths debunked). So unless EOG Resources, Inc. sees its shares decline 36.2% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $72.60 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the $2.40 from $75), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 2.3% annualized rate of return.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for EOG Resources, Inc., and highlighting in green where the $75 strike is located relative to that history:
The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the January 2027 put at the $75 strike for the 2.3% annualized rate of return represents good reward for the risks. We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for EOG Resources, Inc. (considering the last 250 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $117.61) to be 29%. For other put options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the EOG Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.
In mid-afternoon trading on Thursday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 957,084 contracts, with call volume at 957,084, for a put:call ratio of 0.71 so far for the day, which is above normal compared to the long-term median put:call ratio of .65. In other words, if we look at the number of call buyers and then use the long-term median to project the number of put buyers we'd expect to see, we're actually seeing more put buyers than expected out there in options trading so far today. Find out which 15 call and put options traders are talking about today.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Commit To Buy EOG Resources At $75, Earn 3.2% Using Options

Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the Oakmark US Large Cap ETF (Symbol: OAKM), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $29.23 per unit.
With OAKM trading at a recent price near $26.08 per unit, that means that analysts see 12.08% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of OAKM's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are EOG Resources, Inc. (Symbol: EOG), Bank of America Corp (Symbol: BAC), and Warner Bros Discovery Inc (Symbol: WBD). Although EOG has traded at a recent price of $119.47/share, the average analyst target is 16.50% higher at $139.18/share. Similarly, BAC has 12.97% upside from the recent share price of $47.23 if the average analyst target price of $53.36/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting WBD to reach a target price of $13.53/share, which is 12.36% above the recent price of $12.04. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of EOG, BAC, and WBD:
Combined, EOG, BAC, and WBD represent 8.03% of the Oakmark US Large Cap ETF. Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
Name
Symbol
Recent Price
Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target
% Upside to Target
EOG Resources, Inc.
EOG
$119.47
$139.18
16.50%
Bank of America Corp
BAC
$47.23
$53.36
12.97%
Warner Bros Discovery Inc
WBD
$12.04
$13.53
12.36%
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Analysts Predict 12% Upside For OAKM

U.S. energy operator APA Corporation APA reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 87 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 45 cents. The outperformance primarily reflects higher-than-expected production and lower costs.
The bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.17 due to lower oil realizations.
Revenues of $2.6 billion were down 6.4% from the year-ago quarter’s sales but came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by more than 26%.
Meanwhile, APA continues to reward its shareholders, having paid out $140 million in dividends and buybacks during the quarter.
APA Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Production & Selling Prices
Production of oil and natural gas averaged 465,078 BOE/d, which comprised 68% liquids. The figure was down 1.8% from the year-ago quarter but surpassed our expectation of 457,000 BOE/d.
U.S. output (accounting for 62% of the total) fell 4.5% year over year to 289,902 BOE/d, but production from the company’s international operations increased 3% to 175,176 BOE/d. APA’s oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production was 316,062 barrels per day (Bbl/d). Natural gas output totaled 894,099 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d).
The average realized crude oil price during the second quarter was $65.58 per barrel, down 20.3% from the year-ago realization of $82.28. However, the number came above our projection of $56.07. Meanwhile, the average realized natural gas price rose to $2.28 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) from $1.77 in the year-ago period but missed our estimate of $2.35.
Costs & Financial Position
APA’s second-quarter lease operating expenses totaled $367 million, down 20.2% from $460 million in the year-ago period. Moreover, a 10.1% drop in the cost of oil/gas equipment and lower depreciation outgo meant that total operating expenses decreased 15% from the corresponding period of 2024 to $1.6 billion. Our model had put the figure at $1.5 billion.
During the quarter under review, APA generated $1.2 billion of cash from operating activities while it incurred $648 million in upstream capital expenditures. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company reported an adjusted operating cash flow of $981 million. It also registered a free cash flow of $134 million compared to $103 million a year ago.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
As of June 30, APA had approximately $107 million in cash and cash equivalents and $4.3 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization of 42.1%.
APA expects production to average 448,000 BOE/d in Q3 and 457000 BOE/d in 2025 (up 0.5% year over year). Of this, oil volumes are likely to be 228,000 Bbl/d during the July-September period and 232,000 Bbl/d for the full year. The company pegged its upstream capital expenditure for the year at $2.315-$2.365 billion compared to $2.225 billion-$2.325 billion before.
Some Key E&P Earnings
While we have discussed APA’s second-quarter results in detail, let’s see how some other upstream companies have fared this earnings season.
Shale-focused operator EOG Resources EOG reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.32, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.21 but decreased from the year-ago quarter’s $3.16. EOG’s results were driven by higher oil-equivalent production volumes. This was partially offset by lower price realization.
As of June 30, 2025, EOG Resources had cash and cash equivalents worth $5.2 billion and long-term debt of $3.5 billion. The current portion of the long-term debt totaled $778 million. In the reported quarter, the company generated $973 million in free cash flow. Capital expenditure amounted to $1.52 billion.
ConocoPhillips COP, one of the world’s largest independent oil and gas producers, reported adjusted EPS of $1.42, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36. The bottom line decreased from the prior-year level of $1.98. ConocoPhillips’ better-than-expected quarterly earnings can be attributed to higher oil equivalent production volumes. The positives, however, were partially counterbalanced by decreased average realized oil equivalent prices and increased total costs and expenses.
As of June 30, ConocoPhillips had $4.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a total long-term debt of $23.1 billion and a short-term debt of $414 million as of the same date. Capital expenditure and investments totaled $3.29 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities was $3.5 billion.
Natural gas producer EQT Corporation EQT reported adjusted EPS of 45 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents and improved from the year-ago reported loss of 8 cents. The strong quarterly earnings were driven by higher sales volume and increased average realized prices. In the June quarter, EQT produced 568.2 billion cubic feet (Bcfe) of natural gas, higher than 507.5 Bcfe in the prior-year quarter. The production volumes, however, marginally missed our estimate of 569.3 Bcfe.
Natural gas contributed about 94% of EQT’s total production, amounting to 534.4 Bcf. Although this was slightly below our estimate of 535.3 Bcf, it increased from the previous year's 474.1 Bcf. The year-over-year growth was driven by strong well performance.
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APA Q2 Earnings Shine With Beat on Both Top and Bottom Lines

EOG Resources, Inc. EOG is set to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7, after market close.
In the last reported quarter, its adjusted earnings of $2.87 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.74, primarily driven by higher production volumes.
EOG’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 6.02%. This is depicted in the graph below:
EOG Resources, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Estimate Trend
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share of $2.20 has witnessed no downward or upward revision in the past seven days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 30.4% from the prior-year reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $5.43 billion indicates a 9.8% decrease from the year-ago recorded figure.
Factors to Consider
EOG Resources is expected to have delivered a stable performance in the second quarter, supported by highly productive acreages in premier oil shale plays like the Permian and Eagle Ford. The company boasts numerous untapped high-quality drilling sites, which strengthen its production outlook and lower risk profile.
However, EOG faced margin pressure from softer commodity realizations as average oil prices fell sharply during the quarter, squeezing upstream profitability despite steady production levels. The company also trimmed its 2025 capital expenditure budget by $200 million, signaling a more cautious investment approach amid uncertain pricing and demand trends. Furthermore, EOG is absorbing higher financing costs tied to its $5.6 billion acquisition of Encino Acquisition Partners, which added roughly $3.5 billion in new debt to its balance sheet.
These factors are anticipated to have impacted demand and pricing dynamics, potentially affecting EOG Resources’ quarterly performance.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for EOG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: EOG Resources has an Earnings ESP of -0.89%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: EOG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks to Consider
Here are three firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Canadian Natural Resources CNQ is a Calgary-based independent energy company. It currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Canadian Natural Resources is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNQ’s earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share, indicating a 31.3% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.
Viper Energy, Inc. VNOM currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.87% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
VNOM is set to release second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VNOM’s earnings is pegged at 34 cents per share, indicating a 44.3% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
The Williams Companies, Inc. WMB currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank #3.
WMB is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 49 cents per share, which implies a 13.9% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
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EOG Resources to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What You Need to Know

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Monday closed up +0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.36%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.02%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.35%.
Stock indexes on Monday settled mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Positive trade news pushed stocks higher on Monday after the European Union (EU) and the US reached a trade deal on Sunday, which will see the EU face tariffs of 15% on most of its exports, lower than the previous threats from President Trump of tariffs as high as 50%. Stocks also rose after the South China Morning Post reported that the US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days from August 12, when US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm.
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Stocks fell back from their best levels on Monday after poor demand for the Treasury’s $70 billion auction of 5-year T-notes pushed bond yields higher and sparked long liquidation in equities. Bond yields also rose after the Treasury raised its Q3 borrowing estimate to $1.01 trillion from an April estimate of $554 billion, which could prompt the Treasury to boost its sales of government debt securities.
Monday’s US economic news was supportive for stocks after the Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey rose +13.6 to a 6-month high of 0.9, stronger than expectations of -9.0.
The markets this week will focus on any news of new trade deals before Friday’s deadline. On Tuesday, the Jun JOLTS job openings are expected to decline by -219,000 to 7.55 million. Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board’s US Jul consumer confidence index is expected to climb by +3.0 to 96.0. In addition, the 2-day FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, and the Fed is expected to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. On Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is expected to climb by +80,000. Also on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is expected to expand by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE price index is expected to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment cost index is expected to increase by 0.8%. Also, Jun personal spending is expected to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun personal income is expected to rise +0.3% m/m. In addition, the Jun core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Finally, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is expected to increase by +1.6 to 42.0. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%. Also, Jul average hourly earnings are expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase by +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan Jul consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 61.8.
The markets are awaiting President Trump’s August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump last Wednesday said, “We’ll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and 63% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
This week kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the amount reported last week. The earnings results of Magnificent Seven members will be front and center, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday. Early results show that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, around 82% exceeded profit estimates.
Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 2-week high and closed down -0.27%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.12%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.10%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Monday closed down -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.404%. T-notes are under pressure from today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which reduces safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury auctioned $69 billion of 2-year T-notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes on Tuesday. T-notes fell to their lows on Monday afternoon due to weak demand for the Treasury’s $70 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.31, below the 10-auction average of 2.39. Losses in T-notes were limited after the US and EU agreed on a trade deal, which eases concerns about inflation.
European government bond yields on Monday were mixed. The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.9 bp to 2.689%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +1.2 bp to 4.647%.
ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said the ECB shouldn’t cut interest rates in September unless there’s evidence of a major deterioration in the economy.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 17% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Chip stocks rose Monday after the EU and the US reached a trade deal. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, On Semiconductor Corp (ON) closed up more than +3%, and KLA Corp (KLAC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Applied Materials (AMAT), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +1%.
Energy stocks and energy service providers rallied Monday after the price of WTI crude oil rose more than +2% to a 1-week high. Diamondback Energy (FANG) closed up more than +4% and Devon Energy (DVN) closed up more than +3%. Also, APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Haliburton (HAL), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +1%.
LNG stocks moved higher on Monday after the EU committed to big purchases of American energy products as part of the EU-US trade deal. Venture Global (VG) closed up more than +4%, and Cheniere Energy (LNG) and EOG Resources (EOG) closed up more than +1%.
Mining stocks were under pressure Monday after gold and copper prices tumbled to 2-1/2 week lows. Newmont (NEM) closed down more than -3% and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -2%.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 on optimism that demand for its AI servers will remain strong.
Nike (NKE) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $93.
Weatherford International Plc (WFRD) closed up more than +3% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $73.
Revvity (RVTY) closed down more than -8% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.85-$4.95 from a previous estimate of $4.90-$5.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $4.93.
Centene (CNC) closed down more than -5% after Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Coinbase Global (COIN) closed down more than -3% after Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) closed down more than -2% as analysts note a potential risk to the company’s HIV preventative drugs after HHS Secretary Kennedy was reported to be planning the dismissal of an advisory panel that determines what preventive health measures insurers must cover.
Accenture Plc (ACN) closed down more than -2% after HSBC initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of reduce and a price target of $240.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) closed down more than -1% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to inline from outperform.
Earnings Reports (7/29/2025)
American Tower Corp (AMT), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Boeing Co/The (BA), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), BXP Inc (BXP), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), Corning Inc (GLW), DTE Energy Co (DTE), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Incyte Corp (INCY), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG), Regency Centers Corp (REG), Republic Services Inc (RSG), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Sysco Corp (SYY), Teradyne Inc (TER), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Visa Inc (V).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Post Record Highs on Trade Deals

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.34%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.04%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.31%.
Stock indexes are mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Positive trade news is bullish for stocks after the European Union (EU) and the US reached a trade deal on Sunday, which will see the EU face tariffs of 15% on most of its exports, lower than the previous threats from President Trump of tariffs as high as 50%. Stocks also rose after the South China Morning Post reported that the US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days from August 12, when US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm today.
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Today's US economic news was supportive for stocks after the Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey rose +13.6 to a 6-month high of 0.9, stronger than expectations of -9.0.
The markets this week will focus on any news of new trade deals before Friday's deadline. On Tuesday, the Jun JOLTS job openings are expected to decline by -219,000 to 7.55 million. Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board's US Jul consumer confidence index is expected to climb by +3.0 to 96.0. In addition, the 2-day FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, and the Fed is expected to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. On Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is expected to climb by +80,000. Also on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is expected to expand by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE price index is expected to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment cost index is expected to increase by 0.8%. Also, Jun personal spending is expected to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun personal income is expected to rise +0.3% m/m. In addition, the Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Finally, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is expected to increase by +1.6 to 42.0. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%. Also, Jul average hourly earnings are expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase by +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan Jul consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 61.8.
The markets are awaiting President Trump's August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump last Wednesday said, "We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%," an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 2% at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and 64% at the following meeting on September 16-17.
This week kicks off the earnings season's busiest week, with 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the amount reported last week. The earnings results of Magnificent Seven members will be front and center, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday. Early results show that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, around 82% exceeded profit estimates.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 2-week high and is down -0.35%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.12%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.10%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.404%. T-notes are under pressure from today's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which reduces safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $69 billion of 2-year T-notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes later today. Losses in T-notes are limited after the US and EU agreed on a trade deal, which eases concerns about inflation.
European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.3 bp to 2.685%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.7 bp to 4.643%.
ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said the ECB shouldn't cut interest rates in September unless there's evidence of a major deterioration in the economy.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 18% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Chip stocks are climbing today after the EU and the US reached a trade deal. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +3%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Texas Instruments (TXN) Applied Materials (AMAT), and On Semiconductor Corp (ON) are up more than +2%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Intel (INTC), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +1%.
Energy stocks and energy service providers are higher today with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +2% to a 1-week high. Devon Energy (DVN), APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are up more than +2%. Also, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Haliburton (HAL), Phillips 66 (PSX), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +1%.
LNG stocks are moving higher after the EU committed to big purchases of American energy products as part of the EU-US trade deal. Cheniere Energy (LNG), EOG Resources (EOG), and Venture Global (VG) are up more than +1%.
Mining stocks are under pressure today after gold and copper prices tumbled to 2-1/2 week lows. Newmont (NEM) is down more than -3% and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is down more than -2%.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 on optimism that demand for its AI servers will remain strong.
Nike (NKE) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $93.
Weatherford International Plc (WFRD) is up more than +3% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $73.
Revvity (RVTY) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.85-$4.95 from a previous estimate of $4.90-$5.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $4.93.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 as analysts note a potential risk to the company's HIV preventative drugs after HHS Secretary Kennedy was reported to be planning the dismissal of an advisory panel that determines what preventive health measures insurers must cover.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to inline from outperform.
Centene (CNC) is down more than -2% after Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight,
Accenture Plc (ACN) is down more than -2% after HSBC initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of reduce and a price target of $240.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Earnings Reports (7/28/2025)
Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Crane Co (CR), Exelixis Inc (EXEL), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/The (HIG), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), NOV Inc (NOV), Nucor Corp (NUE), Olin Corp (OLN), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Rithm Capital Corp (RITM), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Veralto Corp (VLTO), Waste Management Inc (WM), Welltower Inc (WELL), Western Union Co/The (WU), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Woodward Inc (WWD).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.