Duolingo, Inc.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.58%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.18%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.68%.
Stocks are climbing today on the prospect of a more accommodative Federal Reserve. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 5-month low today of 4.05%. The markets have fully priced in a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed at next week's FOMC meeting and priced in a 10% chance for a 50 bp rate cut. However, this week's US Aug CPI and PPI reports will show how much room the Fed has to cut interest rates and support the job market. Stocks fell last Friday after the weaker-than-expected US Aug payroll report sparked concerns that the Fed was falling behind in supporting a rapidly cooling US labor market.
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Weaker-than-expected trade news from China is negative for global growth prospects after China's Aug exports rose +4.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.5% y/y. Also, Aug imports rose +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.4% y/y.
Market focus this week will be on any trade or tariff news. On Tuesday, the BLS will release annual benchmark revisions to US payrolls in the year through March. On Wednesday, Aug PPI final demand is expected to climb +3.3% y/y, unchanged from July, and Aug PPI ex-food and energy is expected to ease to +3.5% y/y from +3.7% y/y in July. On Thursday, Aug CPI is expected to climb to +2.9% y/y from +2.7% y/y in July, and Aug CPI ex-food and energy is expected to increase +3.1% y/y, unchanged from July. Also, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall by -3,000 to 234,000. On Friday, the University of Michigan Sep consumer sentiment index is expected to slip -0.2 to 58.0.
The markets are now pricing in a 13% chance of a 50 bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17, versus the previous expectations of a zero chance of that 50 bp rate cut. After the fully expected -25 bp rate cut at the Sep 16-17 meeting, the markets are now discounting an 81% chance of a second -25 bp rate cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, up from a 54% chance as of late Thursday. The markets are now pricing in an overall -76 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end to 3.62% from the current 4.38% rate.
Regarding tariffs, a federal appeals court ruled late last month that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing global tariffs without Congressional approval, but the court let the tariffs remain in place while appeals continue. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court said, "The statute bestows significant authority on the President to undertake a number of actions in response to a declared national emergency, but none of these actions explicitly include the power to impose tariffs, duties, or the like, or the power to tax." The case now appears to be headed to the Supreme Court for a final decision. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.57%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.38%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a 2.5-week high and closed up +1.45%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up by +4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down by -2.1 bp to 4.053%. The 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 5-month low today at 4.051% on carryover support from last Friday's weak US unemployment report that bolstered the outlook for Fed easing. Supply pressures are limiting gains in T-note prices as the Treasury will auction $119 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week, beginning with Tuesday's $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes.
Concerns about Fed independence are negatively impacting T-note prices due to President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook and Stephen Miran's intention to hold a Fed Governor position while remaining technically in his White House role on the Council of Economic Advisors.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-month low of 2.640% and is down -2.1 bp to 2.641%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 3-week low of 4.616% and is down -2.9 bp to 4.615%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher today, lifting the broader market. Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +2% and Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +2%. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up +0.92% and Tesla (TSLA) is up +0.88%. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.77%, and Amazon (AMZN) is up +0.73%. Apple (AAPL) is a laggard, down -0.15%.
Chip stocks are climbing today to provide support to the overall market. Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +4% and added to last Friday's +9% surge to lead chip stocks higher and gainers in the S&P 500 on news that the company is teaming up with OpenAI to make artificial intelligence accelerators. Also, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +2% after the stock received a 30-day upside catalyst watch at Citigroup. In addition, KLA Corp (KLAC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ARM Holding NV (ARM), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +1%.
AppLovin (APP) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the stock will replace Caesars Entertainment in the S&P 500 before the start of trading on September 22.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +11% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the stock will replace MarketAxess Holdings in the S&P 500 before the start of trading on September 22.
Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) is up more than +171% after reporting positive topline results from its RAP-219 treatment for focal onset seizures.
Forward Industries (FORD) is up more than 67% after receiving $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoin commitments for a private investment in public equity offering to fund a Solana-focused digital asset treasury strategy.
EchoStar (SATS) is up more than +20% after SpaceX's Starlink agreed to buy wireless spectrum from the company for about $17 billion.
Premier Inc. (PINC) is up more than +8% after Patient Square Capital was said to be exploring an acquisition of the company.
Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +2% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $246 from $175.
Telecommunication stocks are falling today after SpaceX agreed to buy wireless spectrum from EchoStar for $17 billion. T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, AT&T (T) is down more than -3%. In addition, Verizon Communications (VZ) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down more than -15% unveiling new data that cast doubt on the future of its ivonescimab drug to treat lung cancer.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is down more than -4% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the stock will be replaced by AppLovin in the S&P 500 before the start of trading on September 22.
TransDigm Group (TDG) is down more than -1% after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the stock to sector perform from outperform.
Duolingo (DUOL) is down -0.69% after Wells Fargo Securities started coverage of the stock with an underweight rating and a price target of $239.
Earnings Reports(9/8/2025)
Casey's General Stores (CASY).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Mostly Higher on Fed Easing Prospects

Time to Buy?

Chegg, Inc. CHGG is leaning heavily on artificial intelligence (“AI”) to reshape its business model as it navigates a turbulent period marked by sharp subscriber losses. The education-technology firm reported second-quarter 2025 revenues of $105.1 million, down 36% year over year, with subscription services revenue falling 39% to $89.7 million. The subscriber base plunged 40% to 2.6 million, largely due to lower traffic stemming from Google’s AI Overviews.
Yet management is betting that efficiency gains and product reinvention will stabilize the business. Chegg has embedded AI across Chegg Study, launching tools like Solution Scout and AI-driven flashcard generators. The company says these innovations are improving engagement, with reported gains in retention and satisfaction. AI is also cutting operating costs—non-GAAP expenses fell 33% in the second quarter—helping Chegg deliver $23.1 million in adjusted EBITDA despite revenue headwinds.
Growth segments Busuu and Skills are bright spots. Busuu’s language-learning platform posted 15% revenue growth, led by a 39% surge in its B2B business. Skills, focused on workplace readiness, saw 16% enrollment growth quarter-over-quarter, positioning both businesses as long-term growth drivers.
Looking ahead, management guided third-quarter revenues down to $75–77 million, reflecting ongoing traffic pressures. While cost discipline and AI-enabled efficiencies are cushioning profitability, the key question for investors is whether AI can do more than reduce costs—can it drive sustainable growth in a competitive, AI-disrupted edtech landscape? With Chegg in the midst of a strategic review, the next few quarters will be critical in proving whether efficiency gains can offset declining scale.
Competitive Pressures From EdTech Rivals
Chegg’s challenges in balancing AI adoption with subscriber declines come against the backdrop of intensifying competition from peers like Coursera COUR and Duolingo DUOL. Coursera, a leading online learning platform, has leaned into AI-driven personalization and enterprise partnerships to expand beyond its core university alliances. Coursera continues to build traction in professional upskilling—a direct overlap with Chegg’s Skills business—raising the stakes as both companies court corporate and institutional clients. Meanwhile, Duolingo remains a formidable player in language learning, boasting a massive global user base and strong brand equity. Duolingo has aggressively integrated AI to refine language instruction, while also branching into math and literacy, a move that broadens its moat against niche players. For Chegg, Busuu’s double-digit B2B growth is encouraging, but Duolingo’s scale and Coursera’s enterprise depth highlight just how competitive and capital-intensive the AI-driven edtech race has become.
CHGG Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of this data engineering company have soared 41.3% in the past three months, performing far better than the Zacks Internet - Software industry, as you can see below.
CHGG Stock’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CHGG stock is currently trading at a discount compared with its industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.42, as evidenced by the chart below.
CHGG’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Estimate Trend of CHGG Stock
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 loss per share has narrowed to 11 cents from 40 cents in the past 30 days.
The consensus estimate for 2025 sales implies a 33.8% decline. The same for the company’s 2025 EPS is expected to decline from the year-ago profit level of 75 cents per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CHGG’s Zacks Rank
Chegg stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
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This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Chegg Turns to AI for Efficiency: Enough to Offset Subscriber Decline?

Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (Symbol: IUSG), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $173.99 per unit.
With IUSG trading at a recent price near $157.95 per unit, that means that analysts see 10.15% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of IUSG's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Duolingo Inc (Symbol: DUOL), Haemonetics Corp. (Symbol: HAE), and Viper Energy Inc (Symbol: VNOM). Although DUOL has traded at a recent price of $317.93/share, the average analyst target is 49.78% higher at $476.20/share. Similarly, HAE has 46.86% upside from the recent share price of $55.03 if the average analyst target price of $80.82/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting VNOM to reach a target price of $55.43/share, which is 41.15% above the recent price of $39.27. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of DUOL, HAE, and VNOM:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
Name
Symbol
Recent Price
Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target
% Upside to Target
iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF
IUSG
$157.95
$173.99
10.15%
Duolingo Inc
DUOL
$317.93
$476.20
49.78%
Haemonetics Corp.
HAE
$55.03
$80.82
46.86%
Viper Energy Inc
VNOM
$39.27
$55.43
41.15%
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
Also see:
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

How The Parts Add Up: IUSG Targets $174

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Bank OZK (Symbol: OZK), where a total volume of 4,235 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 423,500 underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 46.1% of OZK's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 917,710 shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $42.50 strike call option expiring January 16, 2026, with 1,750 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 175,000 underlying shares of OZK. Below is a chart showing OZK's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $42.50 strike highlighted in orange:
Lowe's Companies Inc (Symbol: LOW) options are showing a volume of 14,412 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 1.4 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 45.4% of LOW's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 3.2 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $265 strike put option expiring September 19, 2025, with 1,562 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 156,200 underlying shares of LOW. Below is a chart showing LOW's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $265 strike highlighted in orange:
And Duolingo Inc (Symbol: DUOL) saw options trading volume of 9,486 contracts, representing approximately 948,600 underlying shares or approximately 44.8% of DUOL's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.1 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $340 strike put option expiring August 22, 2025, with 646 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 64,600 underlying shares of DUOL. Below is a chart showing DUOL's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $340 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for OZK options, LOW options, or DUOL options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Also see:
Funds Holding SEPU
RACY market cap history
Top Ten Hedge Funds Holding HEPA
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Notable Friday Option Activity: OZK, LOW, DUOL

The Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF is seeing unusually high volume in afternoon trading Tuesday, with over 2.3 million shares traded versus three month average volume of about 319,000. Shares of GSLC were down about 0.4% on the day.
Components of that ETF with the highest volume on Tuesday were Intel, trading up about 7.6% with over 190.2 million shares changing hands so far this session, and Nvidia, off about 2.1% on volume of over 82.7 million shares. Duolingo is lagging other components of the Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF Tuesday, trading lower by about 7.3%.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Tuesday's ETF with Unusual Volume: GSLC

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed down by -0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.01%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.03%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.02%.
Stock indexes on Monday settled little changed, pressured by higher bond yields. Last Thursday’s bearish July PPI reported dampened speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates as soon as next month’s FOMC meeting. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high Monday at 4.35% and finished up +2 bp to 4.34%.
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Stocks were also weighed down by uncertainty regarding Monday’s meeting between European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy with President Trump in Washington to discuss potential terms to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. The outcome could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security. In addition, concerns about how consumers are holding up in the early days of President Trump’s tariffs also weighed on stocks ahead of earnings results this week from some of the biggest US retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.
Monday’s US economic news was negative for stocks after the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -1 to 32, weaker than expectations of an increase to 34.
The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and signs of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders meeting President Trump in Washington on Monday. On Tuesday, Jul housing starts are expected to fall -1.6% m/m to 1.300 million, and Jul building permits are expected to fall -0.4% m/m to 1.388 million. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall to 6.7 from 15.9 in July. Also, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.8. In addition, Jul existing home sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m to 3.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Regarding tariffs, President Trump said last Friday, “I’ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say chips – chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting sometime next week, week after.” Mr. Trump last week said he planned a 100% tariff on semiconductors but would exempt companies that move chip manufacturing to the US. Mr. Trump also mentioned 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.
In other recent tariff news, Mr. Trump last Tuesday extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November. On August 6, Mr. Trump announced that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India’s purchases of Russian oil. On August 5, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced “within the next week or so.” According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, down from 93% last Thursday. The markets are discounting the chances at 51% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29.
Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 92% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates.
Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.26%. China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-year high and closed up +0.85%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new record high and closed up +0.77%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Monday closed down -2.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +2.0 bp to 4.336%. Sep T-notes fell to a 2-week low on Monday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high of 4.351%. T-notes are under pressure on concern that last week’s bearish US July CPI and PPI reports could keep the Fed from cutting interest rates at next month’s FOMC meeting.
Losses in T-notes were limited after Monday’s news showed the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly declined. T-notes are also supported by an increase in safe-haven demand after there was no breakthrough in the Trump-Putin summit last Friday to end the war in Ukraine.
European government bond yields on Monday were mixed. The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.5 bp to 2.763%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 2.5-month high of 4.748% and finished up by +4.2 bp to 4.738%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Natural gas producing stocks retreated Monday after Roth Capital Partners downgraded the sector on concerns that oversupply will keep prices depressed. EQT Corp (EQT) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Comstock Resources (CRK) closed down more than -6%, and Antero Resources (AR) closed down more than -5%. In addition, Corterra Energy (CTRA) and Range Resources (RRC) closed down more than -3%, and Expand Energy (EXE) closed down more than -2%.
Intel (INTC) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is in discussions to take a 10% stake in the company, a move that would make the US government the company’s largest shareholder.
Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -2% after the Information newsletter reported that the company is planning the fourth restructuring of its AI organization in the last six months.
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) closed down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed down more than -1% after Walleye Capital LLC reported a net short position in the stock of 5.43 million shares, or 0.51% of the total shares as of last Friday.
Dayforce (DAY) closed up more than +25% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company.
Duolingo (DUOL) closed up more than +12% after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $400.
EPAM Systems (EPAM) closed up more than +4% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $205.
CVS Health (CVS) closed up more than +2% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $79.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials, adding to last Friday’s +11% rally, after a 13F filing showed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and other investors bought shares in the company during Q2.
Earnings Reports(8/19/2025)
Amer Sports Inc (AS), Home Depot Inc/The (HD), Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Settle Little Changed as Bond Yields Climb

Autonomous Vehicles Hit an Inflection Point; GPT-5 Is Here

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down by -0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.03%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.09%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.04%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.12%.
Stocks are mixed today on geopolitical concerns as European leaders are set to meet with President Trump in Washington today to discuss potential terms to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. The outcome could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security. Also, concerns about how consumers are holding up in the early days of President Trump's tariffs are limiting gains in stocks ahead of earnings results this week from some of the biggest US retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
Today's US economic news was negative for stocks after the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -1 to 32, weaker than expectations of an increase to 34.
The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and signs of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders set to meet President Trump in Washington later today. On Tuesday, Jul housing starts are expected to fall -1.6% m/m to 1.300 million, and Jul building permits are expected to fall -0.4% m/m to 1.388 million. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall to 6.7 from 15.9 in July. Also, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.8. In addition, Jul existing home sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m to 3.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Regarding tariffs, President Trump said last Friday, "I'll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say chips – chips and semiconductors, we'll be setting sometime next week, week after." Mr. Trump last week said he planned a 100% tariff on semiconductors but would exempt companies that move chip manufacturing to the US. Mr. Trump also mentioned 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.
In other recent tariff news, Mr. Trump last Tuesday extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November. On August 6, Mr. Trump announced that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil. On August 5, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced "within the next week or so." According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, down from 93% last Thursday. The markets are discounting the chances at 51% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29.
Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 92% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.44%. China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-year high and closed up +0.85%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new record high and closed up +0.77%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +1.2 bp to 4.328%. T-note prices are slightly lower on concern that last week's bearish US July CPI and PPI reports could keep the Fed from cutting interest rates at next month's FOMC meeting.
Losses in T-notes are limited after today's news showed the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly declined. T-notes are also supported by an increase in safe-haven demand after there was no breakthrough in the Trump-Putin summit last Friday to end the war in Ukraine.
European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.3 bp to 2.776%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 2.5-month high of 4.743% and is up by +4.3 bp to 4.739%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Natural gas producing stocks are falling today after Roth Capital Partners downgraded the sector on concerns that oversupply will keep prices depressed. EQT Corp (EQT) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Comstock Resources (CRK) is down more than -6%, and Antero Resources (AR) is down more than -5%. In addition, Corterra Energy (CTRA) and Range Resources (RRC) are down more than -3%, and Expand Energy (EXE) is down more than -1%.
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is down more than -2% after Walleye Capital LLC reported a net short position in the stock of 5.43 million shares, or 0.51% of the total shares as of last Friday.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is down more than -1% after a drug from rival Novo Nordisk A/S received FDA approval to treat a form of liver disease that Madrigal is also developing.
Dayforce (DAY) is up more than +26% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company.
Duolingo (DUOL) is up more than +9% after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $400.
EPAM Systems (EPAM) is up more than +4% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $205.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials, adding to last Friday's +11% rally, after a 13F filing showed that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and other investors bought shares in the company during Q2.
CVS Health (CVS) is up more than +3% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $79.
Earnings Reports (8/18/2025)
Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), XP Inc (XP).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Stocks Mixed Before Trump-Zelenskiy Meeting and Retailer Earnings

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down by -0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.17%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.06%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.12%.
Stocks are modestly lower today on geopolitical concerns as European leaders are set to meet with President Trump in Washington today to discuss potential terms to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. The outcome could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security. Also, concerns about how consumers are holding up in the early days of President Trump's tariffs are weighing on stocks ahead of earnings results this week from some of the biggest US retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.
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The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and signs of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders set to meet President Trump in Washington later today. Also, later today, the Aug NAHB housing market index is expected to climb by +1 to 34. On Tuesday, Jul housing starts are expected to fall -1.6% m/m to 1.300 million, and Jul building permits are expected to fall -0.4% m/m to 1.388 million. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall to 6.7 from 15.9 in July. Also, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.8. In addition, Jul existing home sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m to 3.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Regarding tariffs, President Trump said last Friday, "I'll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say chips – chips and semiconductors, we'll be setting sometime next week, week after." Mr. Trump last week said he planned a 100% tariff on semiconductors but would exempt companies that move chip manufacturing to the US. Mr. Trump also mentioned 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.
In other recent tariff news, Mr. Trump last Tuesday extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November. On August 6, Mr. Trump announced that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil. On August 5, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced "within the next week or so." According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, down from 93% last Thursday. The markets are discounting the chances at 55% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29.
Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 92% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.49%. China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-year high and closed up +0.85%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new record high and closed up +0.77%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -0.4 bp to 4.312%. T-note prices are moving slightly higher today as weakness in stocks has boosted safe-haven demand for government debt securities. Strength in European government bonds today is also providing carryover support to T-notes. Gains in T-notes are limited due to concern that last week's bearish US July CPI and PPI reports could keep the Fed from cutting interest rates at next month's FOMC meeting.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.5 bp to 2.763%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -0.3 bp to 4.693%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Natural gas producing stocks are falling today after Roth Capital Partners downgraded the sector on concerns that oversupply will keep prices depressed. EQT Corp (EQT) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Comstock Resources (CRK) is down more than -5%, and Antero Resources (AR) is down more than -4%. In addition, Expand Energy (EXE) and Range Resources (RRC) are down more than -3%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today with the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1% to a 1-week low. As a result, Coinbase Global (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -1%.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is down more than -3% after a drug from rival Novo Nordisk A/S received FDA approval to treat a form of liver disease that Madrigal is also developing.
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is down more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight.
Dayforce (DAY) is up more than +25% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company.
Duolingo (DUOL) is up more than +7% after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $400.
EPAM Systems (EPAM) is up more than +3% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $205.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials, adding to last Friday's +11% rally, after a 13F filing showed that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and other investors bought shares in the company during Q2.
CVS Health (CVS) is up more than +2% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $79.
Earnings Reports (8/18/2025)
Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), XP Inc (XP).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Duolingo, Inc.

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