CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CME Group looks like a high-quality but already expensive business with strong profitability and a moderate balance sheet. P/E of 25.1, P/S of 15.84, P/B of 4.15, and P/FCF of 22.34 are noticeably above the industry median, indicating a valuation premium and limiting the potential for further upside. At the same time, profitability is indeed strong: net profit margin of 63.3%, operating margin of 65.7%, ROE of 16.3%, ROI of 14.5%, and ROA of 2.19% are above industry benchmarks. Margin and return trends are generally stable or improving, which supports the quality of the business and justifies part of the premium to the sector. The debt burden looks comfortable: debt/equity of 0.13 is significantly below the median, and long-term debt is barely growing, which reduces financial risks. However, liquidity is not ideal: the quick ratio is 0, and the current ratio is only around 1.0, so the short-term cushion is limited. Revenue, operating profit, and net profit remain high and generally stable, but unevenness is visible across some periods, and cash on hand has declined from peak levels. The dividend yield of about 0.47% looks modest and does not provide a strong additional argument in favor of a re-rating. The company’s balance sheet is large and stable, but growth in assets and equity does not appear fast enough to justify such high multiples. Overall, the fundamentals support CME’s high-quality, defensive profile, but do not provide grounds for an aggressive increase in the target price. Given the strong profitability and low debt, but very expensive valuation multiples, the adjustment should be moderately negative and conservative.

CME Group Inc.

Слабый индекс, значительно упал. Быки продолжают терять уверенность.

Weak index, significantly down. Bulls continue to lose confidence.

Сильный индекс, значительно упал. Оптимистичный взгляд на свои позиции резко сменился на неуверенность.

Strong index, significantly down. An optimistic view of his position suddenly changed to uncertainty.

Слабый индекс, значительно упал. Рынок не поддерживает быков.

Weak index, significantly down. The market does not support the bulls.

Средний индекс, значительно вырос. Рынок на стороне медведей.

Medium index, significantly up. The market is on the bears' side.

Средний индекс, незначительно вырос. Отток средств из лонгов на высоком уровне.

Medium index, slightly up. Outflow of funds from longs at a high level.

Средний индекс, незначительно упал. Приток средств в шорты на высоком уровне.

Medium index, slightly down. Inflow of funds into shorts at a high level.

CME has strong profitability and low debt, but its valuation multiples are noticeably above the industry, so the premium in its valuation appears overstated.

Key Points
CME dominates the global derivatives market with exceptional profitability and high net margins.
Robinhood Markets is rapidly expanding its retail ecosystem through crypto and prediction markets.
Which financial powerhouse is the better fit for your 2026 portfolio?
Choosing between established giants and disruptive newcomers is a classic investor dilemma. Is the steady reliability of CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) or the rapid expansion of Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) the better play?
CME operates the world's most diverse derivatives marketplace, serving institutional giants and professional traders. Robinhood focuses on democratizing finance for retail users through a sleek mobile interface. While both thrive on trading volume, they offer very different paths to growth within the broader financial landscape for everyday investors.
The case for CME
CME Group operates a diverse marketplace for futures and options, offering clearing services across several asset classes. The exchange provides vital infrastructure for financial stocks and institutional investors seeking to hedge against price swings. According to its latest annual report filed for 2025, members accounted for nearly 85% of derivatives contract volume. The company also partners with Google Cloud to modernize its technical infrastructure and recently launched a prediction markets application through a joint venture with FanDuel.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $6.5 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 6.4% over the prior year. The company reported net income of nearly $4.0 billion, resulting in a net margin of roughly 62%. This high net margin reflects the company's established position and the scalability of its electronic trading platform.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.1x. This ratio, which includes both short-term and long-term debt, measures how much a company relies on borrowing relative to its own capital. The current ratio, measuring the ability to pay short-term obligations with short-term assets, is roughly 93.0x. Free cash flow, calculated as cash from operations minus capital expenditures, was nearly $4.2 billion for the period.
The case for Robinhood Markets
Robinhood Markets focuses on retail investors through its digital platform for equities and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). The company recently partnered with OG.com to support its entry into prediction markets and serves approximately 27.0 million funded customers. It continues to expand its services to include custodial solutions for advisors and international trading options, positioning itself as a central hub for the next generation of individual investors.
In FY 2025, revenue grew by roughly 51.6% to reach nearly $4.5 billion. This surge helped the company achieve a net income of approximately $1.9 billion, a significant turnaround from previous years. This performance led to a net margin of close to 42.1% for the fiscal year, indicating that the business is effectively converting its rapid user growth into meaningful earnings.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.3x. The current ratio is nearly 1.3x, indicating the company has sufficient short-term assets to cover its immediate obligations. Free cash flow for the period was close to $1.6 billion, providing the capital necessary for further platform enhancements and expansion into new financial services.
Risk profile comparison
CME Group faces intense competition from established exchanges such as Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) and Cboe Global Markets (NYSEMKT:CBOE). The company also monitors Euronext (OTC:EUXTF) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (OTC:HKXCF) in international markets. Regulatory shifts regarding digital assets and prediction markets could create hurdles, as could cybersecurity threats or system failures. Reliance on third-party cloud providers adds operational risk, and the clearing house structure remains under scrutiny for fees and governance.
Robinhood faces legal challenges, including class action lawsuits concerning its prediction markets and alleged sports betting activities. The company is sensitive to regulatory changes affecting its Payment for Order Flow model, which the SEC and other bodies monitor closely. Competition from other fintech firms and traditional brokerages remains high. Furthermore, the company must manage credit risk associated with margin lending and its cryptocurrency custody services while ensuring continuous system uptime for its retail users.
Valuation comparison
CME Group appears more conservatively valued based on future earnings estimates, while Robinhood Markets' higher premium reflects its significantly faster revenue growth.
The Forward P/E compares the share price to future earnings estimates, while the P/S ratio measures the market cap divided by sales over the past twelve months.
Forward P/E
22.0x
56.2x
P/S ratio
14.3x
22.0x
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
When comparing Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and CME, investors should consider a few key factors. Let's have a look at them and see what that tells us about each stock.
To start, there's growth. Both companies have exhibited strong growth profiles over the last few years. Nonetheless, HOOD easily outpaces CME. HOOD's quarterly revenue growth has averaged an eye-popping 31.3% over the last five years. What's more, HOOD just recorded revenue growth of 34.5% in its most recent quarter. CME, on the other hand, has averaged 8.1% revenue growth. Yet, revenue was nearly flat in its most recent quarter, with 0.8% year-over-year growth.
Another factor to consider is profitability. Here, CME shows some real strength. CME's operating margin has averaged around 65% over the last five years. Since 2021, its net income has climbed from around $2.5 billion to nearly $4.3 billion. By contrast, HOOD's operating margin is now 44%; its net income has surged from a net loss of $(3.7) billion to around $2.1 billion. So, while HOOD has clearly turned the corner on profitability and is on a great trajectory, CME still comes out ahead in this category to me.
To sum up, HOOD and CME are both decent choices for investors seeking exposure to the financial sector, specifically the brokerage subsector. However, for me, HOOD remains the more intriguing stock right now. Its red-hot revenue growth should continue to translate to increasing profitability as its business scales. CME stock, on the other hand, remains a solid stock that has nevertheless failed to match the total return of the S&P 500 over the last five years. Its profitability remains a strength, but revenue growth will likely need to accelerate for it to generate better returns.
Should you buy stock in CME Group right now?
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CME vs. Robinhood Markets: Which Financial Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Key Points
After the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate hike, the market now thinks another one or two could be come before the year's end.
Higher rates typically pressure stocks.
However, some stocks have business models that perform better in a rising-rate environment.
After much anticipation, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the benchmark overnight federal funds rate by a quarter point, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%. It was the first time in three years that the FOMC raised rates. The vote was unanimous.
The future remains murky, but the market currently expects at least one more rate hike this year and potentially two, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
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Furthermore, the FOMC's recent dot plot from its September meeting, which shows each member's expectations for where the federal funds rate will be in the future, indicates that most members of the committee don't expect rate cuts until at least 2028.
If this scenario plays out, here are two stocks built to handle it.
Visa (NYSE: V), the largest payments network in the world, should prove resilient in an elevated-rate environment.
People will see the Visa logo on debit and credit cards, but it is not actually extending any credit. Rather, the company helps route transactions between various parties and takes a small fee as a percentage of each transaction, essentially collecting a toll on an electronic highway.
Rising interest rates are coinciding with stubborn inflation, making everything more expensive. Still, the economy, by many benchmarks, is still performing well.
This is good for Visa because when economic activity is robust, there is more spending through its network, leading to more fee income. And when goods and services get more expensive, because Visa charges a fixed rate, its fees should rise as well, making it a strong hedge against inflation.
In its third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30), payments volume and processed transactions rose 10% year over year, while net revenue jumped 14%.
On the company'searnings call Chief Financial Officer Chris Suh told analysts that management expects net revenue growth to be in the low-double-digit percentage range: "For drivers, we are assuming that the broader consumer spend stability continues from a macro perspective. Our overall drivers remain resilient and strong."
If the economy slows down or tips into a recession, that could hurt transaction volume, so it bears monitoring, but that's not the outlook right now.
Wells Fargo
Many investors will assume that rising interest rates are not good for banks. But that's not always the case. Rising rates can create a beneficial environment for bank stocks, but it's a balancing act.
Typically, banks benefit from rising interest rates when the yield curve is steep, meaning bonds with shorter maturities yield less than longer-dated ones. That's because banks typically borrow money at short-term rates and lend it out at longer-term rates. However, rising rates can also increase deposit costs and lead to customer credit stress.
The yield curve has been flattening of late, with the spread between the yields on the two- and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes still technically steep but much less so than before.
Still, net interest income (NII) -- which is essentially the spread revenue that banks make between what they pay on deposits and other funding sources and the interest they earn on loans and bonds -- has largely moved higher during the past year. NII made up more than 54% of total revenue at Wells Fargo in the second quarter.
During the second quarter, management reaffirmed its outlook for full-year NII to be roughly $50 billion, up from nearly $47.5 billion in 2025.
Overall, credit at the bank still looks quite benign, with total nonperforming assets trending down during the past year.
Deposit costs are likely to continue to creep up, but I still expect earnings and revenue to perform well unless the yield curve were to invert, which could add more pressure on banks, but over time.
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If Kevin Warsh Keeps Rates Elevated, These 2 Stocks Are Built to Handle It

CME Group Inc. CME is strengthening its equity derivatives franchise by expanding beyond broad-market exposure into more targeted investment strategies. The company launched its E-mini Equity Factor futures on Sept. 21, giving institutional investors more targeted tools to manage equity exposure and implement factor-based strategies.
The contracts cover E-mini S&P 500 Growth, Value, Quality, Momentum and Low Volatility futures, along with E-mini Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 futures. By offering factor-based exposure through futures, CME can help investors hedge or adjust portfolios without trading the underlying securities.
The new contracts are also eligible for margin offsets with other cleared CME equity products, which potentially improves capital efficiency and encourages cross-product trading.
The strategy builds on the company’s June launch of four new E-mini Equity Index futures, highlighting its broader push to expand its benchmark suite and provide more ways to manage equity exposure. This could offer another avenue for volume growth as investors increasingly use factor-based strategies to build portfolios and manage risk.
The contracts are available on CME Globex and through privately negotiated transactions, including block trades, derived futures blocks and BTIC transactions. These trading mechanisms provide institutional participants with greater flexibility in executing larger or customized positions.
For CME, the opportunity will depend on adoption and liquidity. Higher trading activity and open interest could generate additional transaction and clearing revenue while strengthening its equity derivatives ecosystem. If liquidity develops, the contracts could become an additional source of volume growth for CME.
What About Its Peers?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE expanded its derivatives offering in 2026 by launching economic indicator futures tied to central bank policy decisions and U.S. natural gas storage data, giving investors new tools to manage event-driven risks. Its diversified exchange network supports growth in trading and clearing activity.
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE expanded its index derivatives offering by launching daily expirations for Dow Jones Industrial Average options in May 2026. Its derivatives business also saw strong activity in August, with record average daily volume in Mini-S&P 500 Index options. Cboe Global’s expansion of listed derivatives provides additional avenues for trading and clearing volume.
CME’s Price Performance
Shares of CME have gained 5.5% over the past year against the industry’s decline of 7.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CME’s Valuation
From a valuation standpoint, CME Group trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.75X, higher than the industry average of 20.31X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CME’s Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME Group’s 2026 and 2027 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.5% and 4.5%, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for revenues in 2026 and 2027 indicates an increase of 7.9% and 4.8%, respectively.
CME currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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CME Group Expands Equity Derivatives With New Factor Futures

Key Points
President Donald Trump has been vocal about wanting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
However, Warsh and the rest of the FOMC clearly saw a rate hike as inevitable.
There's a real chance the FOMC will raise rates again, potentially later this year.
Weeks of anticipation over whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would raise interest rates were recently put to bed when the committee unanimously voted at its September meeting to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
While the market had widely anticipated such a move, I'm not sure anyone expected the vote to be 12–0 among FOMC members, largely because the committee has been divided at recent meetings.
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The decision is a defiance of President Donald Trump, who nominated Kevin Warsh to become Federal Reserve chair earlier this year and who has desperately wanted the Fed to cut rates since his second term began.
The rate hike also comes just about seven weeks before the midterm elections, as the country grapples with affordability issues. Warsh has now gone against the president's wishes, and 17 words during his press conference after the FOMC meeting indicated he may do so again, potentially later this year.
Warsh clears the air
When Warsh took over as Fed chair earlier this year, there was much debate over whether Warsh would be a dove (lower interest rates and an expansionary monetary policy) or a hawk (higher rates and a tight monetary policy). Even at the FOMC's most recent meeting, it was tough to know.
Warsh had said on multiple occasions that prices were too high and that the Fed would bring down inflation. But prior to being confirmed as Fed chair, Warsh had also said that he thought the Fed could measure inflation differently.
Warsh previously suggested that he might favor a "trimmed mean" methodology, which essentially removes the most extreme price movements at both the top and bottom of a basket of prices before taking a weighted average.
Interestingly, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas publishes a trimmed mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In July, the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate came in at 2.2%.
The PCE, which the Fed currently focuses on, was 3.7% in July. Core PCE, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.3%. So if Warsh was actually looking at the trimmed mean, that would suggest inflation in his eyes is much closer to the Fed's 2% target.
Warsh also created a task force early in his tenure to examine how the Fed measures inflation.
Some investors also wondered how willing Warsh would be to raise rates, given how much pressure Trump applied to former Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he didn't lower rates this year. After all, how could Warsh have obtained the nomination from Trump had he come across as hawkish?
But at the September FOMC meeting, Warsh and the rest of the committee raised rates, much to Trump's displeasure. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote, "Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World -- BY FAR."
The 17 words that show Warsh may defy Trump again
Now, Trump has seemingly been more patient with Warsh than he was with Powell.
Earlier this year, while Powell was still chair, the Justice Department subpoenaed him over comments he made regarding the renovation of Fed buildings. Powell, along with many critics, claimed the subpoena was retribution for the Fed's failure to cut interest rates, as Trump desired.
Following the hike, Trump said that he "still has confidence" in Warsh. But his patience may once again be tested if the Fed goes on a hiking cycle. Whether that will happen remains unclear, but the FOMC may very well raise rates again this year.
CME Group's FedWatch tool currently places the chance of a hike at the FOMC's October meeting at close to 58%. According to this tool, there is over an 90% chance that rates will be either a quarter or a half point higher in December than they are today.
And Warsh seems on board with this, especially if the data doesn't show that inflation is slowing, as evidenced by these 17 words in his post-meeting press conference: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed," he said.
Given that oil prices have been elevated this month, September inflation data may not look good. Furthermore, Warsh's use of the phrase "sufficient speed" suggests that the FOMC may not be as patient as it has been. There needs to be clear, meaningful progress of inflation back down toward 2%.
We haven't been able to see a real trend like that all year. Obviously, conditions in this economy can change very quickly, but Warsh's comments indicate he would be willing to defy the president once again, if needed.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Defied President Donald Trump, and 17 Words From His Post-FOMC Meeting Press Conference Suggest He May Do So Again

Shares of CME Group Inc. CME have gained 5.8% in the past year against the industry's decline of 9.4%.
CME Group has outperformed its peers, including Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE, S&P Global Inc. SPGI and Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ. Shares of ICE, SPGI and NDAQ have lost 8.5%, 23.8% and 3.6%, respectively, in the past year.
With a market capitalization of $98.9 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 2.7 million. CME has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, and missed in one, with an average of 1.27%.
CME Shares are Overvalued
CME Group shares are trading at a premium to the Zacks Securities and Exchange industry. Its forward price-to-earnings of 21.73X is higher than the industry average of 20.65X.
CME Trading Above 50-Day Moving Averages
Shares of CME Group closed at $275.09 on Tuesday and are trading above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $263.54, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.
CME’s Growth Projection
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME Group’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a 9.5% year-over-year increase. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $7.03 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 7.8%.
The consensus estimate for 2027 EPS and revenues indicates an increase of 4.8% and 4.8%, respectively, from the corresponding 2026 estimates.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment for CME
Nine of the 11 analysts covering the stock have raised estimates for 2026, and eight analysts have raised the same for 2027 over the past 60 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved up 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in the past 60 days.
Target Price Reflects Potential Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 15 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $284.40 per share. The average indicates a potential 1.4% upside from the last closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Impacting CME
CME Group continues to strengthen its position as a leading global derivatives marketplace, supported by strong trading activity, product expansion and a scalable operating model. In the first half of 2026, average daily volume (ADV) rose 10% year over year, while open interest increased 8% from the prior-year period to 127 million contracts. More than $95 billion of average daily margin efficiencies in the second quarter further enhanced the value of its integrated clearing platform.
The company’s electronic operating model also supports revenue scalability.
CME is simultaneously broadening its addressable market. New initiatives include continuous cryptocurrency trading, extended gold trading hours, single-stock futures and the planned launch of Compute futures. Treasury Link, expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, is designed to connect Treasury futures with cash-market liquidity.
Market data represents another increasingly important growth engine. Second-quarter market-data and information-services revenues jumped 20% year over year to a record $238 million, marking the eighth consecutive quarterly record. Continued demand for proprietary pricing and benchmark data could support this relatively recurring revenue stream amid ongoing market uncertainty and rising adoption of algorithmic and AI-driven analytics.
CME also maintains significant financial flexibility. As of June 30, 2026, it had approximately $2.3 billion in cash and $3.4 billion of debt.
During the second quarter, CME paid $468 million in regular dividends and repurchased $695 million of shares. Its combination of volume-driven growth, expanding market-data revenues, product innovation and capital returns provides multiple avenues for sustaining shareholder value.
End Notes
CME Group continues to benefit from strong trading activity, product expansion and a scalable business model. Growth in market-data revenues provides a recurring revenue stream, supported by demand for financial information and analytics.
Meanwhile, new products and extended trading hours broaden its addressable markets. Strong cash generation also supports dividends and share repurchases.
Its solid growth projection and positive analyst statements are other positives. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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CME Group Rises 5.8% in a Year: How Should You Play the Stock?

Key Points
CME Group operates a dominant global derivatives marketplace with an industry-leading 62% net margin.
Morningstar provides essentialinvestment researchand data that creates high recurring subscription revenue.
Which financial infrastructure giant offers the best balance of growth and value for your portfolio?
Investors often face a choice between high-profit infrastructure and data-driven growth when evaluating the market today. Choosing between CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) and Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) requires understanding how their respective business models generate cash.
CME dominates the global marketplace for futures and options, essentially serving as the toll booth for financial risk management. Morningstar provides the essential research and ratings that guide millions of investment decisions. They are being compared because both are critical players in the infrastructure of modern finance.
The case for CME
CME Group operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace within the financial stocks sector, where participants trade futures and options on various assets. In its latest annual report, filed for the period ending in 2025, the company noted that 85% of its volume comes from its exchange members. Its customer base includes global banks and professional trading firms, and it recently launched a prediction markets venture with Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT).
In fiscal 2025, revenue reached nearly $6.5 billion, up about 6.4% compared to the prior year. This performance led to net income of approximately $4 billion, which is the total profit remaining after all operating costs and taxes are paid. The company achieved a net margin of close to 62%, reflecting the low incremental costs of processing additional trades on its platform.
As of CME's December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was roughly 0.1. This indicates that total debt is very low relative to the amount of money shareholders have invested. The current ratio, which compares short-term assets to liabilities, was approximately 1.03, while the company generated nearly $4.2 billion in free cash flow, which is cash left after paying for operations and equipment.
The case for Morningstar
Morningstar provides independent investment insights and data through a variety of software and subscription products. It serves a diverse group of customers, including wealth managers, asset managers, and individual investors. The company has also embraced new technology by integrating its data with artificial intelligence platforms from partners such as OpenAI.
In fiscal 2025, Morningstar reported nearly $2.4 billion in revenue, an increase of roughly 7.5% over the previous year. Net income was about $374.2 million, resulting in a net margin of approximately 15.3%. While this is lower than an exchange operator, it demonstrates the steady profitability of its subscription-based business model that relies on high-quality proprietary data.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, Morningstar carried a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.2. This means its total debt is slightly higher than the equity owned by its shareholders. The company maintained a current ratio of roughly 1 and generated close to $442.6 million in free cash flow, which represents the money available to pay back debt or reward shareholders.
Risk profile comparison
CME faces competition from other major exchanges like Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) and Cboe Global Markets (NYSEMKT:CBOE). Operational risks are a factor, including potential system failures like the late 2025 cooling issue at a CyrusOne data center. Regulatory scrutiny regarding derivatives clearing and the evolving status of digital asset markets also remains a significant concern for the business.
Morningstar must manage reputational risks because providing both independent research and investment advisory services can lead to conflict-of-interest concerns. The company also faces technological risks associated with integrating artificial intelligence, as errors in data could hurt its brand. Competitive pressure is also constant from other data and software providers like MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) and S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI).
Valuation comparison
Morningstar currently offers a more attractive entry point based on future earnings estimates, while CME Group carries a higher premium due to its massive net margin.
Forward P/E
22.5
15.5
P/S ratio
15.2
2.9
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
CME Group's 62% net margin would be the envy of any company. That said, I am having trouble with the stock's valuation.
It's not a totally outrageous figure; several of the top tech companies in the trillion-dollar club have forward P/Es in the 20s (and some much higher). But CME Group is decidedly not a trillion-dollar megacap: Its market cap is roughly $100 billion.
And while CME shares have outperformed Morningstar stock over the past five years by roughly 70 percentage points, their returns over a 10-year time frame are basically the same. That said, across both periods, both equities lagged the S&P 500, sometimes trailing by more than 100 percentage points. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it is worth considering.
While neither stock is terribly attractive to me (CME's expensive, Morningstar's returns are disappointing), I lean toward CME because its net margin is eye-popping, and it pays a modest dividend. Plus, the company is poised to benefit regardless of what the market is doing: Both bear and bull market environments result in a lot of activity from large and small investors alike.
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Erin Kennedy has positions in CME Group. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends CME Group, MSCI, and S&P Global. The Motley Fool recommends Cboe Global Markets, Flutter Entertainment Plc, and Intercontinental Exchange. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

CME vs. Morningstar: Which Financial Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

(RTTNews) - On Wednesday, CME Group, Inc. (CME), a derivatives and contract marketplace, announced that the company has promoted Jack Tobin from Chief Accounting Officer to Chief Financial Officer, effective March 2027. Tobin will also join the company's management team, following his promotion.
Later this month, he will succeed Jonathan Marcus, who is stepping down after serving as General Counsel since 2022.
Tobin has over 35 years of experience in finance. He has led accounting, corporate development, and finance at CME Group since joining the company in 2002. Before that, he worked as a principal consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
On the Nasdaq, the shares were trading 0.96 percent lower at $275.69.

CME Group Promotes Jack Tobin To CFO

Key Points
The Consumer Price Index for August will be released on Sept. 11.
It's the last major inflation clue the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will see before its September meeting.
It could very well determine whether the FOMC raises interest rates at its upcoming meeting.
For months now, investors have been going back and forth about whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets monetary policy for the Federal Reserve, will raise interest rates at its upcoming September meeting on Sept. 15-16.
The FOMC has been on pause all year, despite inflation remaining stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target. With just days remaining before the meeting, a critical data point is scheduled for release on Friday, Sept. 11, which is likely to make the FOMC's decision much easier.
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It could be a massive day for the stock market.
A hot inflation report could result in a rate hike
Since the Iran war began at the very end of February and led to surging oil and gas prices, the market and the FOMC have been worried about inflation. The market has gone from expecting the FOMC to cut interest rates this year to believing that a rate hike is only a matter of time to rein in inflation.
Stocks tend not to perform as well under rising interest rates because safer assets like bonds yield more when rates rise. The risk-free rate used in most discounted cash flow valuations also increases, raising the discount rate, more heavily discounting future cash flows, and lowering valuations.
While oil prices could come back down if the war ends, there is no clear end in sight.
Some data this year has suggested inflation is easing, and the FOMC has been willing to wait and see, but the committee has become more divided in recent meetings. At its July meeting, the FOMC held interest rates steady, but three members dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.
On Sept. 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for August will be released, essentially the last major data point the Fed will get to observe before its September meeting.
Since the FOMC's July meeting, more FOMC members have publicly said they would be willing to raise rates if inflation doesn't show continued progress back to 2%.
The FOMC has 19 total members, but only 12 vote, so if the CPI comes in higher than expected, particularly on core CPI, or perhaps even in line with economists' estimates, enough FOMC members could move to support a quarter-point hike.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Nowcasting tool expected the CPI to rise 0.36% in August, with core CPI rising 0.2%. A 6-6 tie from the FOMC would leave rates unchanged.
There was bad news on the inflation front earlier this month when U.S. nonfarm payrolls added three times as many new workers as expected in August. While a positive for the economy, a strong labor market fuels consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
Based on the August jobs report, the likelihood of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's September meeting has gone from a coin toss to 58.4%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The market may finally discover the true intentions of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh became the new Fed chair and, therefore, the new FOMC chair earlier this year. Ever since, investors have been trying to figure out whether Warsh is a hawk or a dove.
On several occasions, Warsh has come across as hawkish, noting that prices are too high and the Fed needs to rein in inflation. But Warsh has also said that he is not a fan of how the Fed currently measures inflation, and could prefer a gauge that would likely clock inflation lower than under the current methodology.
Additionally, Warsh has the difficult task of ensuring the Fed doesn't come across as political. A rate hike this month, just weeks before the midterm elections, is unlikely to be well received by President Donald Trump. But if inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected on Sept. 11, Warsh will likely have enough support from other FOMC members to move forward with a rate hike.
In this scenario, if Warsh votes in favor of hiking rates, it would silence critics, who believe the administration has too much influence over the Fed. If the FOMC leaves rates unchanged, despite a hot inflation report, that might draw some uncomfortable questions.
Of course, inflation data may be in line with estimates or below estimates, making it less likely the Fed hikes rates and sending the market higher. Either way, investors should not try to make near-term bets around the Sept. 11 inflation report. Not only is it impossible to predict, but you also don't know how the market will react.
Still, knowing that a big move could be coming, and the reasons behind it, will enable investors to panic less and make more rational investment decisions, even if that means doing nothing at all.
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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends CME Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Why Sept. 11 Could Be a Massive Day for the Stock Market

(RTTNews) - CME Group, Inc. (CME), a major derivatives marketplace, and European Energy Exchange, or EEX, (T3PA.F, T3PA.DE), an electric power and related commodities exchange, on Tuesday announced a deal through which EEX will transition its European dairy business to CME Group.
Under the terms, EEX plans to phase out its dairy business and support the transition of its suite of indices underpinning existing futures contracts to CME Group before the end of 2027.
The transaction, which includes the European butter and skimmed milk powder indices, will mark CME Group's entry into the European dairy market. The Group has plans to launch its own European dairy indices, futures, and options in the near future.
Derek Sammann, Global Head of Commodities Markets at CME Group, said: "The European dairy market is one of largest in the world and the addition of European dairy futures and options will allow CME Group to build on record activity in our U.S. dairy franchise and offer clients access to a trulyglobal marketin one venue."
The EU accounts for around 20% of cow's milk production and over 30% of nonfat dry milk exports globally, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Service. Much of that market remains unhedged.
CME was down by 1.64% at $276.67 in the pre-market trade on the Nasdaq.

CME Group To Take Over European Energy Exchange's European Dairy Business

Key Points
Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index has lately been well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, so it might have to raise interest rates.
The August CPI numbers due out Friday could be key to the Fed's interest rate decision next week.
The last time the Fed was raising interest rates regularly, the S&P 500 fell by more than 20%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures U.S. inflation by tracking the changes in the aggregate price of a basket of goods and services over time. The latest data is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve closely analyzes it to inform its decisions on whether to hike, hold, or cut the federal funds rate -- the interest rate it charges banks for overnight loans. That rate influences a host of other interest rates across the economy.
In July, the CPI increased by 3.4% year over year, so inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-established target rate of 2%. The central bank would normally hike interest rates in this situation, so Wall Street is on edge ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's next policy meeting on Sept. 15 and 16.
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On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the next interest rate decision could hinge on the August CPI report, which will be released on Friday, Sept. 11, at 8:30 a.m. ET. An interest rate hike might be on the table if the inflation reading is higher than expected, and if history is any guide, that would be bad news for the stock market.
Soaring oil prices are stoking inflation
Energy prices are among the most important components of the CPI. The price of a barrel of oil significantly influences the costs of transporting goods by truck, boat, and plane, which in turn affects how much consumers pay for groceries and retail products. At the start of 2026, a single barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded for $57.42, but due to the war between the U.S. and Iran, prices surged above $100 a barrel this spring, and after a brief retreat this summer have rocketed back to over $90 in September.
When the conflict started in late February, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil previously traveled each day. Despite intermittent peace talks, the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed to commercial ships, so the upward pressure on energy prices isn't going away anytime soon.
The U.S. has been tapping its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to partially offset the falling global oil supply and rising crude prices, but it now sits at a 44-year low. With just 40% of its capacity remaining, the government will soon have to end that temporary stopgap measure, which could lead to a sharp spike in energy costs for American consumers and businesses.
The energy component of the CPI calculation surged by a whopping 14.7% year over year in July, and the gasoline component specifically soared by 24.6%. Therefore, it's clear that rising oil prices are having a significant impact on the inflation numbers overall.
To get a rough idea of where future CPI readings might be heading, we can look at the Producer Price Index (PPI) -- a different inflation metric that tracks the changes in input costs for businesses. (Those costs are often passed along to consumers, but at a time lag.) In July, the PPI jumped by 4.7% year over year, and the energy component was up by 18.2%.
Interestingly, oil prices have moved even higher since the July PPI report was released, so we can safely assume energy placed even more upward pressure on inflation in August.
According to the CME Group's (NASDAQ: CME) FedWatch tool, which analyzes the 30-day fed funds futures market to predict potential interest rate moves, Wall Street thinks there is a 50% chance the Fed will hike rates at the September meeting. That probability could spike if this Friday's CPI numbers are hotter than expected.
Rising interest rates are typically bad news for stocks
The Fed's last campaign of interest rate hikes started in March 2022 and ended in August 2023, when the central bank was trying to tame an 8% CPI. The S&P 500 index plunged by more than 20% from its peak during that 18-month hiking cycle, putting Wall Street into a bear market.
Rising interest rates are bad for stocks for a few reasons. First, they force consumers to allocate more of their household budgets to debt repayments, leaving them with less money for discretionary spending. Second, businesses have less borrowing power when rates are higher, so they can't invest as aggressively in growth.
Third, rising interest rates increase the yields on low-risk assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, giving investors some very attractive alternatives to the stock market.
I'm not suggesting one interest rate hike will plunge the S&P 500 into bear territory, but it could certainly spark a shift in sentiment, particularly because of the index's high valuation. The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio -- a broad measurement of the entire market's valuation -- is currently 41.2. The only period in history during which it reached higher levels was at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
Therefore, many investors might be tempted to take some money off the table if they see trouble on the horizon, which is why Friday's CPI report will be so critical.
Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now?
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Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends CME Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

CME Group Inc.

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