Automatic Data Processing, Inc. engages in the provision of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions. This segment's offerings include RUN Powered by ADP, a software platform for small business payroll, HR management, and tax compliance administration; ADP Workforce Now, a HCM solution used across mid-sized and large businesses to manage employees; and ADP Vantage HCM, a solution for HR management, benefits administration, payroll services, time and attendance management, and talent management. The PEO Services segment provides HR and employment administration outsourcing solutions under ADP TotalSource name to businesses through a co-employment model. The segment also provides employee benefits, protection and compliance, talent engagement, expertise, comprehensive outsourcing, and recruitment process outsourcing services. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

We have lots of economic data out prior to today’s opening bell. Chief among them is the latest “Jobs Week” report, private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing ADP. A headline of +54K new private-sector jobs filled in August missed expectations by 20K. Goods-producing jobs grew by +13K (not out of the ordinary) and Services was up by a (relatively weak) +42K. Friday’s BLS non-farm payroll estimate is +75K.
This headline roughly tracks the trailing 4-month average in private-sector jobs growth: +55K. Compare this to the previous 4-month average of +102K — almost double. Count this as another metric demonstrating a notable slowdown in employment, albeit solely in the private sector. But it’s hard to imagine government jobs having picked up this slack in August. I suppose we’ll find out Friday in the BLS Employment Situation report.
In recent months, large corporations (over 500 employees) had been leading growth in monthly ADP employment numbers. At +18K, it’s a pretty weak showing for big businesses. Medium-sized companies (between 50-499 employees) brought +25K new private-sector jobs, while small firms made up the remainder +12K.
By industry, Leisure/Hospitality jumped back into the top spot: +50K new private-sector jobs filled last month. Distant second is Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services +15K. The biggest declines in today’s ADP report came from Trade/Transportation/Utilities (TTU) at -17K and Education/Healthcare at -12K.
It’s tempting to assign some of what we know about the current economic environment to these job losses in segments usually at or near the top of the employment contribution list. The TTU slide appears directly related to our new tariff realities, slowing down shipments as fewer goods are imported, while Education/Healthcare — particularly the Healthcare side — is an industry largely populated by immigrants.
Job Stayers averaged +4.4% earnings gains in August in this report. Job Changers, at +7.1%, illustrates a continued narrowing of the difference in pay between staying or leaving your job for a new one. This speaks to a relatively stagnant labor market, with very little movement overall.
Weekly Jobless Claims Mixed, Remain In-Range
This being a normal Thursday morning, Weekly Jobless Claims are also hitting the tape ahead of today’s open. Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K from an expected +230K and an unrevised +229K the previous month. This is the highest single-month tally since June, although we have remained below +250K now for 12 straight weeks.
Also a model of consistency, Continuing Jobless Claims, sank to 1.940 million from a downwardly revised 1.944 million the prior week. Quite remarkably, without ever touching the psychologically important 2 million longer-term jobless claims per month, we’re now at 13 straight weeks — a full calendar quarter — at or above 1.94 million.
Other Economic Prints This Morning: Productivity, Labor Costs, Trade Deficit
The revised Q2 Productivity (labor productivity per hour worked) results this morning showed a big jump to a seasonally adjusted, annualized +3.3% from +2.8% reported in the previous print. This is the strongest quarterly productivity reported since Q3 2024. Unit Labor Costs for the quarter, meanwhile, came in lower than expected: +1.0%. Strong productivity and lower labor costs? Sounds like a downright “Goldilocks” quarter.
The U.S. Trade Deficit reached -$78.3 billion for July this morning, though a deeper cut from the previous month’s downwardly revised -$59.1 billion. Thankfully, we remain off the pre-tariff all-time lows of -$128.8 billion in January, -$120.3 billion in February and an all-time low -$136.4 billion in March of this year.
Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge Gains
Quantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.
While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.
Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.
Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA's enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be "the next big thing" in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.
See Top Quantum Stocks Now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Weak Private Payrolls Data for August

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Shares have lost about 9.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Palantir Technologies due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
PLTR Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates
Palantir Technologies not only delivered better-than-expected earnings and revenue but also achieved a milestone: its first-ever billion-dollar quarter.
Fueled by its fast-expanding Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) and surging demand from both government and commercial sectors — especially in the United States — PLTR’s growth trajectory looks more promising than ever.
PLTR Delivers Blockbuster Billion-Dollar Revenue Quarter
Palantir posted second-quarter 2025 revenues of $1 billion, a 48% year-over-year surge that easily beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $938.3 million. This was not only a clear beat but also the first time the software firm crossed the $1 billion quarterly revenue threshold, a major psychological and financial milestone.
Earnings per share came in at 16 cents, beating expectations by 2 cents and jumping a whopping 78% from the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA hit $470.9 million, up 69% from the prior year, with a striking adjusted EBITDA margin of 47%, up 800 basis points year over year.
Geographically, the U.S. market remains the primary driver of PLTR’s growth narrative. U.S. revenues grew 68% year over year to reach $733 million. Within that, U.S. commercial revenues surged an eye-popping 93% to $306 million, while U.S. government business rose 53% to $426 million.
Palantir's CEO Alex Karp described the quarter as "phenomenal," emphasizing that the company achieved a Rule of 40 score of 94%, a rare and elite threshold in software. The Rule of 40 combines revenue growth and profit margin; if the sum exceeds 40%, the Software business is healthy. Notably, PLTR closed 157 deals worth at least $1 million, with 42 deals exceeding $10 million, showcasing robust customer traction.
AIP Driving PLTR’s Commercial Growth Engine
The core catalyst behind Palantir’s explosive growth is its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which is fast becoming the company's primary growth engine. In fact, in just the first quarter, U.S. commercial revenue jumped 71% YoY and crossed the $1 billion annual run rate milestone. That momentum carried into the second quarter, pushing U.S. commercial growth to 93% YoY.
AIP enables clients to integrate autonomous AI agents directly into operational workflows, allowing organizations to make decisions faster and improve productivity by magnitudes, not just percentages. While many competitors focus on AI model development, PLTR is excelling in deployment, a crucial differentiator. It offers a turnkey AI solution that’s enterprise-ready from day one.
Palantir’s AIP bootcamps — short, intensive implementation workshops — have played a key role in accelerating adoption. These sessions help clients quickly move from onboarding to deploying AI in production, drastically reducing time-to-value. The feedback has been overwhelmingly positive, with clients appreciating AIP’s user-friendly interface, scalability and immediate business impact.
Thanks to AIP, the total U.S. commercial contract value skyrocketed 222% YoY, while the remaining deal value climbed 145% to $2.79 billion. Customer count also grew 43% year over year, underscoring PLTR’s ability to scale rapidly while maintaining high satisfaction.
Strong Guidance and PLTR’s Path Ahead
Following the record-setting quarter, Palantir raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $4.14 to $4.15 billion, up from a prior estimate of $3.90 billion. For the third quarter of 2025, the company expects revenues of about $1.085 billion, once again above the current consensus expectations of $989.44 million. If achieved, this would mark the highest sequential revenue growth in Palantir’s history.
Additionally, PLTR forecasts adjusted income from operations between $1.91 billion and $1.92 billion for the year. Adjusted free cash flow is projected between $1.8 billion and $2 billion, a significant war chest that provides flexibility for expansion and R&D.
On the balance sheet, Palantir remains financially strong, ending the quarter with $929.5 million in cash and equivalents, despite being down from $2.1 billion at the end of 2024 due to ongoing investments. Operating cash flow for the quarter was a healthy $539.3 million, reflecting the firm’s profitability and operational efficiency.
PLTR’s performance stands out in an increasingly crowded AI space, where many companies are still experimenting with pilot deployments. Palantir’s strategy of making AI immediately useful — through production-ready agents and scalable platforms — has created a distinct moat around its commercial and government businesses.
As AI continues to transform the software landscape, Palantir is one of the few players capitalizing not just on the hype but on the tangible utility of AI, delivering operationalized solutions that clients are eager to adopt.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted 24.2% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Palantir Technologies has a strong Growth Score of A, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Palantir Technologies has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Palantir Technologies belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry. Another stock from the same industry, Automatic Data Processing (ADP), has gained 0.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2025.
ADP reported revenues of $5.13 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.5%. EPS of $2.26 for the same period compares with $2.09 a year ago.
For the current quarter, ADP is expected to post earnings of $2.44 per share, indicating a change of +4.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.2% over the last 30 days.
ADP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
Higher. Faster. Sooner. Buy These Stocks Now
A small number of stocks are primed for a breakout, and you have a chance to get in before they take off.
At any given time, there are only 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. On average, this list more than doubles the S&P 500. We’ve combed through the latest Strong Buys and selected 7 compelling companies likely to jump sooner and climb higher than any other stock you could buy this month.
You'll learn everything you need to know about these exciting trades in our brand-new Special Report, 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.
Download the report free now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Down 9.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Considering we have no major economic or Q2 earnings reports out ahead of today’s holiday-shortened week, it has the capacity to be quite impactful to the stock market. That’s because this is also Jobs Week, where all the major monthly (and weekly) employment reports hit the tape between now and Friday morning.
Due to the Monday holiday, we’re also seeing these reports pushed back a day for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing ADP to Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The JOLTS numbers reflect July’s employment numbers and ADP’s are for August.
Also on Thursday, as most Thursdays throughout the course of the year, Weekly Jobless Claims will hit the tape. These have been a marvel of consistency over the past few months: after ramping up rather quickly to +150K new jobless claims back in early June, we’ve settled around 230K today. Longer-term claims have been at or over +1.94 million for 12 straight weeks without once touching the psychologically significant 2 million longer-term claims.
The big labor market report, as it is every Jobs Week, is the known as the Employment Situation, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Friday will mark the first Employment Situation report since the firing of the head of BLS by President Trump following the most recent report’s release. Expectations are not for big improvements month over month: +75K new jobs having been filled, versus +73K reported a month ago.
This is, incidentally, exactly the estimate for this week’s ADP tally: +75K. Numbers at these levels would represent a deficit considering the number of Baby Boomers and now older GenX retiring from the workforce per month. Even still, these would be better than we saw in May or June, which only reached +33K combined.
These lower jobs numbers are the main reason the Fed is looking to cut interest rates in another couple weeks. Even a surprise to the upside — say, to 110K new jobs filled last month — would not be enough to change the Fed’s plans to cut rates. Thus, a weaker Jobs Week would not be the worst news we could receive between now and Friday.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
After the opening bell this morning, S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports — both for August — will come out. On the S&P side, 53.3 is the level expected — in-line with the month-ago number — and above the 50 level, which determines growth from loss. ISM Manufacturing is expected to climb to +48.5% from +48.0% reported a month ago, but still beneath that 50 threshold.
Pre-market futures are sinking at this hour, taking major indexes below trading levels five workdays ago. The 30-year bond yield has surged to +4.99% this morning — the highest it’s been since crossing over the +5% threshold back in July, with the 10-year back up to +4.30% and the 2-year +3.67%. Much of the current U.S. tariff policy has been declared illegal by a high court. Paying back the tariff gains is not a specter any U.S. investor would care to acknowledge at this point.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They include
Stock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and Resilience
Stock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the Dip
Stock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the Market
Stock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for Growth
Stock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to Spring
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.
Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Economic Data Deluge This Week

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (Symbol: SPHQ) where we have detected an approximate $234.3 million dollar inflow -- that's a 1.6% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 204,850,000 to 208,080,000). Among the largest underlying components of SPHQ, in trading today Salesforce Inc (Symbol: CRM) is up about 1.2%, Gilead Sciences Inc (Symbol: GILD) is down about 0.8%, and Automatic Data Processing Inc. (Symbol: ADP) is lower by about 0.3%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the SPHQ Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of SPHQ, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, SPHQ's low point in its 52 week range is $57.67 per share, with $73 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $72.46. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Also see:
ETFs Holding VISI
Top Ten Hedge Funds Holding CLR
AMSG Price Target
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Noteworthy ETF Inflows: SPHQ, CRM, GILD, ADP

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (Symbol: SPHQ) where we have detected an approximate $84.6 million dollar outflow -- that's a 0.6% decrease week over week (from 206,020,000 to 204,850,000). Among the largest underlying components of SPHQ, in trading today Automatic Data Processing Inc. (Symbol: ADP) is up about 0.7%, Progressive Corp. (Symbol: PGR) is up about 1.6%, and 3M Co (Symbol: MMM) is lower by about 0.4%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the SPHQ Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of SPHQ, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, SPHQ's low point in its 52 week range is $57.67 per share, with $72.9849 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $72.38. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Stock Options Channel
SSLJ YTD Return
ETFs Holding STFC
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Notable ETF Outflow Detected - SPHQ, ADP, PGR, MMM

We tiptoe into one of the busiest weeks of the year — not only because Q2 earnings season shifts into a higher gear, but because this is the week that gives us a new Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report (PCE is the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation). It’s also Jobs Week, because June JOLTS, ADP ADP private-sector payrolls for July, Weekly Jobless Claims and the always-important Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Q2 Earnings Outlook This Week
Again, we’re starting slow in this busy week, but Q2 earnings season sets up to bring us four of the “Magnificent 7” stock earnings reports between now and Thursday afternoon: Microsoft MSFT and Meta Platforms META on Wednesday after the bell and Apple AAPL and Amazon AMZN a day later. We’ll see Cadence Design Systems CDNS and Whirlpool WHR report after today’s closing bell.
This week also brings us important mainstays on the earnings front such as Procter & Gamble PG, Starbucks SBUX and Visa V tomorrow, Ford F and Qualcomm QCOM Wednesday and ExxonMobil XOM Friday morning. In all, 164 companies of the S&P 500 will have posted earnings results by Friday, August 1st.
Fed Unlikely to Lower Rates on Wednesday
Despite President Trump’s long and very visible campaign to change Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mind about the ongoing Fed funds rate — it’s been at +4.25-4.50% since December of last year, meaning for the entirely of Trump’s second term so far — due to a relative equilibrium having been reached in the Fed’s dual mandate. An Unemployment Rate of +4.1% and an Inflation Rate at +2.7% (up from +2.3% reached a couple months ago) demonstrate current rates are having their desired effect.
That said, Fed Governors Chris Waller and Miki Bowman are likely to file the first dissents in some time from the ongoing narrative about interest rates at the conclusion of the upcoming FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon. There’s only a 2% chance the Fed has enough votes to cut to outstrip Powell’s opinion to keep interest rates where they are. After an August break, September’s odds go up to +67% for a 25 basis-point (bps) cut.
This is expected to once again raise Trump’s hackles, although perhaps his early-week successes — a trade deal with the EU and ongoing negotiations with China in Stockholm, Sweden — will soothe the president somewhat. Any big, unexpected changes to PCE or the labor market this week — say a sub-100K read on monthly employment, a negative Q2 GDP or a near-+3% year over year PCE — will happen too late for the Fed to pivot on its final decision on rates this summer.
Labor Market Solid… but Weakening?
We don’t see it in continually shrinking Initial Jobless Claims per week (back down to 217K last Thursday), but this week’s jobs figures ought to help answer several questions raised in last week’s Jobs Week reports: ADP private sector payrolls posted a negative -33K jobs filled in June, the first negative print in more than two years.
And, while that Friday’s subsequent BLS report came in at +147K, more than half of those new jobs came from State & Local Government. What that means is that only around 70K new jobs were filled in June outside government hires; 70K isn’t enough to cover the monthly deluge of retiring Baby Boomers and older GenX. So another leg down here — as well as a Continuing Jobless Claims tally closing in on 2 million per week — would change the narrative of the U.S. having a strong labor market, thereby reviving the idea that the Fed needs to cut rates.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They include
Stock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and Resilience
Stock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the Dip
Stock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the Market
Stock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for Growth
Stock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to Spring
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.
Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Heavy-Duty Earnings Week Commences

Monday, July 28, 2025
We tiptoe into one of the busiest weeks of the year — not only because Q2 earnings season shifts into a higher gear, but because this is the week that gives us a new Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report (PCE is the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation). It’s also Jobs Week, because June JOLTS, ADP ADP private-sector payrolls for July, Weekly Jobless Claims and the always-important Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Q2 Earnings Outlook This Week
Again, we’re starting slow in this busy week, but Q2 earnings season sets up to bring us four of the “Magnificent 7” stock earnings reports between now and Thursday afternoon: Microsoft MSFT and Meta Platforms META on Wednesday after the bell and Apple AAPL and Amazon AMZN a day later. We’ll see Cadence Design Systems CDNS and Whirlpool WHR report after today’s closing bell.
This week also brings us important mainstays on the earnings front such as Procter & Gamble PG, Starbucks SBUX and Visa V tomorrow, Ford F and Qualcomm QCOM Wednesday and ExxonMobil XOM Friday morning. In all, 164 companies of the S&P 500 will have posted earnings results by Friday, August 1st.
Fed Unlikely to Lower Rates on Wednesday
Despite President Trump’s long and very visible campaign to change Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mind about the ongoing Fed funds rate — it’s been at +4.25-4.50% since December of last year, meaning for the entirely of Trump’s second term so far — due to a relative equilibrium having been reached in the Fed’s dual mandate. An Unemployment Rate of +4.1% and an Inflation Rate at +2.7% (up from +2.3% reached a couple months ago) demonstrate current rates are having their desired effect.
That said, Fed Governors Chris Waller and Miki Bowman are likely to file the first dissents in some time from the ongoing narrative about interest rates at the conclusion of the upcoming FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon. There’s only a 2% chance the Fed has enough votes to cut to outstrip Powell’s opinion to keep interest rates where they are. After an August break, September’s odds go up to +67% for a 25 basis-point (bps) cut.
This is expected to once again raise Trump’s hackles, although perhaps his early-week successes — a trade deal with the EU and ongoing negotiations with China in Stockholm, Sweden — will soothe the president somewhat. Any big, unexpected changes to PCE or the labor market this week — say a sub-100K read on monthly employment, a negative Q2 GDP or a near-+3% year over year PCE — will happen too late for the Fed to pivot on its final decision on rates this summer.
Labor Market Solid… but Weakening?
We don’t see it in continually shrinking Initial Jobless Claims per week (back down to 217K last Thursday), but this week’s jobs figures ought to help answer several questions raised in last week’s Jobs Week reports: ADP private sector payrolls posted a negative -33K jobs filled in June, the first negative print in more than two years.
And, while that Friday’s subsequent BLS report came in at +147K, more than half of those new jobs came from State & Local Government. What that means is that only around 70K new jobs were filled in June outside government hires; 70K isn’t enough to cover the monthly deluge of retiring Baby Boomers and older GenX. So another leg down here — as well as a Continuing Jobless Claims tally closing in on 2 million per week — would change the narrative of the U.S. having a strong labor market, thereby reviving the idea that the Fed needs to cut rates.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They include
Stock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and Resilience
Stock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the Dip
Stock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the Market
Stock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for Growth
Stock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to Spring
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.
Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Big Week for Jobs, Earnings and the Fed

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 30, before market open.
ADP has a decent earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.5%.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Automatic Data Processing’s Q4 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is $5.1 billion, hinting at a 5.9% year-over-year increase. We expect gains across segments to have supported revenue growth.
Our estimation for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues from Employer Service is $3.4 billion, suggesting growth of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. We expect business bookings to have fueled this segment’s growth.
We anticipate revenues of Professional Employer Organization (“PEO”) services to be $1.6 billion, indicating 5.6% year-over-year growth. The factors likely to have driven this segment are higher wages and strong retention.
Our estimate for Interest on Funds held for clients is $287.9 million, implying a 4% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Stronger average client funds balance growth is anticipated to have benefited this segment.
Our estimate for Average Paid PEO Worksite Employees for the quarter is 762. Changes in Pay per control are anticipated to be 0.1% for the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus estimate for earnings per share is set at $2.22, indicating a 6.2% year-over-year increase. Strong top-line growth, along with disciplined cost control, is expected to have aided the bottom line.
What Our Model Says About ADP
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Automatic Data Processing this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
ADP has an Earnings ESP of -0.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Computer And Technology sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.
Seagate Technology STX: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 27.5%. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at $2.46 per share, suggesting a more than 100% surge from that reported in the year-ago quarter. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 15.7%.
STX currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.34% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to declare fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 29.
Apple AAPL: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $88.9 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 3.7%. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.42 per share, implying a 1.43% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.7%.
AAPL has an Earnings ESP of +3.52% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to declare third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 31.
#1 Semiconductor Stock to Buy (Not NVDA)
The incredible demand for data is fueling the market's next digital gold rush. As data centers continue to be built and constantly upgraded, the companies that provide the hardware for these behemoths will become the NVIDIAs of tomorrow.
One under-the-radar chipmaker is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. It specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.
See This Stock Now for Free >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Automatic Data Processing to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (Symbol: XLI) where we have detected an approximate $121.2 million dollar inflow -- that's a 0.5% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 148,276,000 to 149,076,000). Among the largest underlying components of XLI, in trading today Union Pacific Corp (Symbol: UNP) is up about 0.9%, Deere & Co. (Symbol: DE) is up about 0.9%, and Automatic Data Processing Inc. (Symbol: ADP) is relatively unchanged. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XLI Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of XLI, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, XLI's low point in its 52 week range is $112.75 per share, with $152.475 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $151.75. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
ONTO Videos
ESQ Videos
Institutional Holders of TBA
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

XLI, UNP, DE, ADP: ETF Inflow Alert

In trading on Thursday, shares of Automatic Data Processing Inc. (Symbol: ADP) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $301.19, changing hands as high as $302.05 per share. Automatic Data Processing Inc. shares are currently trading up about 0.5% on the day. The chart below shows the one year performance of ADP shares, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, ADP's low point in its 52 week range is $244.6501 per share, with $329.9295 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $301.98. The ADP DMA information above was sourced from TechnicalAnalysisChannel.com
Click here to find out which 9 other dividend stocks recently crossed above their 200 day moving average »
Also see:
Cheap Shares To Watch
MHI Dividend History
CBLK market cap history
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Trend

Trend Class

Trend Power

Pattern

EMA

EMA-20

EMA-50

EMA-100

EMA-20

EMA-50

EMA-100

Oscillators

Stochastic

RSI

MACD

Candle pattern type