TransMedics Group, Inc. TMDX is well-poised for growth in the coming quarters, courtesy of its strength in OCS technology. The optimism, led by solid first-quarter 2025 results, is expected to contribute further. However, concerns due to gross margin pressure and U.S transplant volume headwinds persist.
This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company has skyrocketed 106.2% in the year-to-date period against a 9.8% decline of the industry. The S&P 500 has witnessed 2.9% growth in the said time frame.
The renowned organ transplant therapy provider has a market capitalization of $4.49 billion. TransMedics’ earnings yield of 1.4% compares favorably with the industry’s (3.3%). The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, missing once, with the average surprise being 39.1%.
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Factors Favoring TMDX’s Growth
NOP Boosting OCS Growth Further: Complementing its technological edge, TransMedics’ National OCS Program (“NOP”) offers a fully integrated, end-to-end organ procurement and delivery service, accelerating adoption by streamlining logistics and clinical execution. The NOP manages OCS perfusion, provides procurement surgeons and clinical specialists, and operates a proprietary transportation network, including 21 aircraft (22 by 2025-end), which supported 78% of all air transport missions, up from 75% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
By centralizing expertise and ensuring timely, controlled delivery, the NOP overcomes cold storage limitations. It extends organ viability, enabling more than 76% of liver transplants and many heart and lung surgeries to occur during daytime hours. With nearly 7,500 transplants performed in the United States and 12% of national heart and liver transplant growth in 2023 attributed to OCS and NOP, TransMedics continues to scale rapidly, which was indicated in the first quarter transplant logistics revenues of $26.1 million, up 80% year over year and 20% sequentially.
OCS Innovation Fuels TransMedics’ Market Leadership: TransMedics' Organ Care System (“OCS”) is transforming organ transplantation by replacing traditional cold storage with an advanced method that keeps donor organs alive using warm, oxygenated and nutrient-rich blood. This breakthrough approach reduces ischemic damage, enables real-time monitoring and improves the utilization of organs, particularly hearts and lungs from circulatory death donors, that would typically be discarded.
As the only FDA-cleared portable system offering warm perfusion for heart, lung and liver transplants, OCS enhances consistency in care, lowers complication rates and raises the standard for organ preservation. These advantages solidify TransMedics’ leadership in the high-value transplant sector, where competition remains minimal.
Solid Q1 Results: TransMedics exited first-quarter 2025 with better-than-expected results. The solid top and bottom-line performances and the uptick in Transplant Logistics services revenues were encouraging. The strength of both revenue sources was also impressive. The expansion of the operating margin bodes well.
Management confirmed that TransMedics plans to open a new disposables manufacturing facility in Mirandola, Italy. This will likely provide an alternate disposable manufacturing source to ensure business continuity at its Andover facility. TMDX is also planning to launch two new heart and lung clinical programs later in the year to further catalyze its growth in 2026 and beyond. These look promising for the stock.
Factors That Can Offset Gains of TMDX
U.S. Transplant Volume Headwinds: TransMedics' growth is challenged by systemic inefficiencies and shifting U.S. transplant policies. While 2024 saw record transplant volumes, changes like the 2020 liver allocation policy have strained hospital budgets by increasing transport costs and reducing volumes at some centers, curbing demand for high-end solutions like the OCS. Ongoing reforms, such as the OPTN Modernization Initiative and heightened CMS oversight, add regulatory complexity and uncertainty. Coupled with ethical controversies and a fragmented transplant system, these issues risk undermining procedural consistency and public confidence, potentially slowing OCS adoption despite its long-term promise.
Gross Margin Under Pressure: TransMedics faced mounting gross margin pressure in the first quarter of 2025 due to an increasingly unfavorable revenue mix, as rapid growth in lower-margin service offerings, particularly aviation logistics, continued to erode profitability. Overall gross margin declined 45 basis points year over year, while service gross margin dropped sharply by 632 basis points, highlighting the cost-heavy nature of scaling logistics operations.
With services making up a larger share of revenues, management acknowledged limited room for margin improvement in 2025. Compounding this, scheduled aviation fleet maintenance in the second half of the year is expected to add cost burdens and introduce performance volatility, further constraining the company's ability to improve margins.
TMDX’s Estimate Trend
TransMedics is witnessing a stable estimate revision trend for 2025. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings has remained stable at $1.89 per share.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $147.4 million, indicating a 28.9% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
Key Picks
Some better-ranked stocks in the broader medical space that have announced quarterly results are CVS Health Corporation CVS, Integer Holdings Corporation ITGR and AngioDynamics ANGO.
CVS Health, carrying a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.25, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 31.6%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Revenues of $94.59 billion outpaced the consensus mark by 1.8%. CVS Health has a long-term estimated growth rate of 11.4%. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 18.1%.
Integer Holdings reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.31, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.2%. Revenues of $437.4 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.3%. It presently holds a Zacks Rank #2.
Integer Holdings has a long-term estimated growth rate of 18.4%. ITGR’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 2.8%.
AngioDynamics, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2, reported a third-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS of 3 cents in contrast to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 13-cent loss. Revenues of $72 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2%.
ANGO has an estimated fiscal 2026 earnings growth rate of 27.8% compared with the S&P 500 composite’s 10.5% rise. AngioDynamics’ earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 70.9%.
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Reasons to Retain TransMedics Stock in Your Portfolio for Now

Shares of TransMedics Group (NASDAQ: TMDX) recently bounded higher in response to a first-quarter earnings report that was a lot better than investors were expecting. Downward revenue guidance revisions and unwanted attention from short-sellers pushed the stock down late last year, but things are looking up.
From the end of 2024 through the opening bell on Monday, May 12, TransMedics stock soared about 81%, and investors want to know if it can keep climbing.
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To find out if TransMedics is a good growth stock to buy now, we'll need to weigh the reasons it soared against some of the challenges it faces.
Why TransMedics stock is so volatile
In a nutshell, TransMedics stock began 2025 in a somewhat depressed state due to a revenue growth slowdown. Annual revenue soared 83% in 2024, but a scathing short report in January caused investors to question its ability to continue growing so quickly. Then management signaled a severe slowdown this February when it predicted revenue growth of just 20% to 25% this year.
TransMedics markets an organ care system (OCS) that pumps donated hearts, lungs, and livers with warm blood. This is a huge improvement over the current standard, which is basically a cooler full of ice. TransMedics' OCS is the only device approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to transport multiple organs, but it isn't the only warm perfusion device on the market.
In 2021, the FDA approved the OrganOx Metra to pump warm blood through donated livers. This could be a big competitive threat because liver transplantation is responsible for 76% of total revenue at TransMedics.
Since February, privately held OrganOx has raised $160 million to accelerate the growth of its device in the limited market for donated organ transportation. Luckily for TransMedics shareholders, first-quarter results suggest OrganOx isn't the serious threat it could be. First-quarter liver revenue soared 62% year over year, or 22% higher than the previous three-month period.
Perhaps encouraged by the lack of competition for liver sales from OrganOx, TransMedics management raised guidance for total revenue this year to a range between $565 million and $585 million. The revised guidance implies a 30% gain at the midpoint of the provided range.
Looking ahead
During the two-year period that ended last December, total heart, lung, and liver transplants in the U.S. rose by 20% to 17,792. TransMedics is responsible for nearly all that growth. Completed transplants that didn't involve TransMedics rose by just 2% over the same time frame.
There are over 103,000 Americans on the national transplant waiting list, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Unfortunately for TransMedics, 89,792 are waiting for kidneys. Since we're born with two, we tend to donate them at convenient times. As a result, kidneys usually don't require transportation and storage services.
While an expansion to include kidneys isn't likely to provide a huge boost for TransMedics, gaining market share for hearts, lungs, and livers could allow it to continue growing sales at more than 20% annually for several more years. The company's share of these three organs rose to 21% in 2024 from just 7% in 2022.
A buy now?
TransMedics stock has been trading for 8.5 times its trailing-12-month sales. This is a high valuation for a medical device company, but not if we assume it can keep growing overall sales by roughly 20% annually in the decade ahead.
Strong growth of liver revenue in the first quarter suggests OrganOx isn't a fierce competitor yet. That said, the privately held company hasn't had much time to put its new sources of capital to work. Instead of buying now or adding to a position, it's probably a good idea to wait another quarter to make sure TransMedics can continue growing its share of liver transplants despite well-funded competition.
Should you invest $1,000 in TransMedics Group right now?
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Cory Renauer has positions in TransMedics Group. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TransMedics Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

TransMedics Group Stock Is Up 81% in 2025. Can It Climb Even Higher?

In recent trading, shares of TransMedics Group Inc (Symbol: TMDX) have crossed above the average analyst 12-month target price of $110.00, changing hands for $111.50/share. When a stock reaches the target an analyst has set, the analyst logically has two ways to react: downgrade on valuation, or, re-adjust their target price to a higher level. Analyst reaction may also depend on the fundamental business developments that may be responsible for driving the stock price higher — if things are looking up for the company, perhaps it is time for that target price to be raised.
There are 7 different analyst targets within the Zacks coverage universe contributing to that average for TransMedics Group Inc, but the average is just that — a mathematical average. There are analysts with lower targets than the average, including one looking for a price of $80.00. And then on the other side of the spectrum one analyst has a target as high as $130.00. The standard deviation is $21.992.
But the whole reason to look at the average TMDX price target in the first place is to tap into a "wisdom of crowds" effort, putting together the contributions of all the individual minds who contributed to the ultimate number, as opposed to what just one particular expert believes. And so with TMDX crossing above that average target price of $110.00/share, investors in TMDX have been given a good signal to spend fresh time assessing the company and deciding for themselves: is $110.00 just one stop on the way to an even higher target, or has the valuation gotten stretched to the point where it is time to think about taking some chips off the table? Below is a table showing the current thinking of the analysts that cover TransMedics Group Inc:
The average rating presented in the last row of the above table above is from 1 to 5 where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell. This article used data provided by Zacks Investment Research via Quandl.com. Get the latest Zacks research report on TMDX — FREE.
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TMDX Crosses Above Average Analyst Target

Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in TransMedics Group Inc (Symbol: TMDX), where a total of 16,796 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 1.7 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 152.6% of TMDX's average daily trading volume over the past month of 1.1 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $105 strike call option expiring May 16, 2025, with 3,217 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 321,700 underlying shares of TMDX. Below is a chart showing TMDX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $105 strike highlighted in orange:
Illumina Inc (Symbol: ILMN) saw options trading volume of 27,041 contracts, representing approximately 2.7 million underlying shares or approximately 145% of ILMN's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 1.9 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $100 strike call option expiring December 19, 2025, with 10,360 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.0 million underlying shares of ILMN. Below is a chart showing ILMN's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $100 strike highlighted in orange:
And FedEx Corp (Symbol: FDX) saw options trading volume of 18,825 contracts, representing approximately 1.9 million underlying shares or approximately 129.3% of FDX's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 1.5 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $250 strike call option expiring May 16, 2025, with 5,802 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 580,200 underlying shares of FDX. Below is a chart showing FDX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $250 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for TMDX options, ILMN options, or FDX options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
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Notable Friday Option Activity: TMDX, ILMN, FDX

For the quarter ended March 2025, TransMedics (TMDX) reported revenue of $143.54 million, up 48.2% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.70, compared to $0.35 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $123.56 million, representing a surprise of +16.17%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +141.38%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.29.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how TransMedics performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Geographic Revenues- All other countries: $4.07 million compared to the $4.21 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -0.6% year over year.
Geographic Revenues- United States: $138.62 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $119.11 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +50.9%.
Net revenue by OCS product- OCS Lung net revenue: $4.01 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $5.19 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -29.2%.
Net revenue by OCS product- OCS Liver net revenue: $108.86 million versus $87.87 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +62.7% change.
Net revenue by OCS product- OCS Heart net revenue: $29.82 million compared to the $30.01 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of +27.8% year over year.
View all Key Company Metrics for TransMedics here>>>
Shares of TransMedics have returned +27.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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Compared to Estimates, TransMedics (TMDX) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

TransMedics (TMDX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.29 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.35 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 141.38%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this medical technology company would post earnings of $0.18 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.19, delivering a surprise of 5.56%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
TransMedics, which belongs to the Zacks Medical - Instruments industry, posted revenues of $143.54 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.17%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $96.85 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
TransMedics shares have added about 53.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's decline of -4.3%.
What's Next for TransMedics?
While TransMedics has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for TransMedics: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.38 on $133.93 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.56 on $543.97 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Medical - Instruments is currently in the top 28% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the same industry, Hyperfine, Inc. (HYPR), is yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2025. The results are expected to be released on May 13.
This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.12 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +14.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Hyperfine, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $2.93 million, down 11.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Should You Invest in TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)?
Before you invest in TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.
Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
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TransMedics (TMDX) Tops Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for TRANSMEDICS GROUP INC (TMDX). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, TMDX rates highest using our P/B Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Partha Mohanram. This growth model looks for low book-to-market stocks that exhibit characteristics associated with sustained future growth.
TRANSMEDICS GROUP INC (TMDX) is a mid-cap growth stock in the Medical Equipment & Supplies industry. The rating using this strategy is 44% based on the firm’s underlying fundamentals and the stock’s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest.
The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria.
BOOK/MARKET RATIO:
PASS
RETURN ON ASSETS:
PASS
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS TO ASSETS:
FAIL
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS TO ASSETS VS. RETURN ON ASSETS:
PASS
RETURN ON ASSETS VARIANCE:
FAIL
SALES VARIANCE:
FAIL
ADVERTISING TO ASSETS:
FAIL
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES TO ASSETS:
PASS
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TO ASSETS:
FAIL
Detailed Analysis of TRANSMEDICS GROUP INC
TMDX Guru Analysis
TMDX Fundamental Analysis
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Partha Mohanram Portfolio
About Partha Mohanram: Sometimes the best investing strategies don't come from the world of investing. Sometimes research that changes the investing world can come from the halls of academia. Partha Mohanram is a great example of this. While academic research has shown that value investing works over time, it has found the opposite for growth investing. Mohanram turned that research on its head by developing a growth model that produced significant market outperformance. His research paper "Separating Winners from Losers among Low Book-to-Market Stocks using Financial Statement Analysis" looked at the criteria that can be used to separate growth stocks that continue their upward trajectory from those that don't. Mohanram is currently the John H. Watson Chair in Value Investing at the University of Toronto and was previously an Associate Professor at the Columbia Business School.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Validea Detailed Fundamental Analysis - TMDX

With the recent market sell-off, now is potentially the time for investors to find their next big winner. After all, if one had invested in stocks during the bear markets of late 2018, the Covid drawdown of 2020, or the interest rate driven drawdown of 2022, you likely would have made out quite well.
Coming off a late-year slowdown and short-seller attack, this disruptive medical tech stock is currently over 60% off its all-time highs set just last year. But with recent better-than-expected Q4 results and a thorough refuting of the short case, is now the time to pick up shares of this turnaround stock?
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TransMedics' rocky 2024: opportunity in 2025?
TransMedics Group (NASDAQ: TMDX) was founded in 1998, but has only been a public company since 2019. Its novel organ care system (OCS) is a new and unique way of preserving organs for transport. As opposed to freezing, TransMedics' OCS keeps organs "alive" through perfusion, a method of circulating warm, oxygenated and nutrient-rich blood through the organ during transport. This new method has been shown to improve the percentage of donated organs that can be utilized, with less permanent damage, and it also allows medical technicians to monitor the health of the organ during transport.
It was only seven months ago that TransMedics rode rapid gains in market share to an all-time high. However, things turned downward in a big way beginning in the second half of last year.
In Q3 2024, TransMedics reported a slowdown and decline in margins, which brought up a number of concerns. Management attempted to put to rest worries over competition or execution issues, saying that the slowdown can mainly be attributed to the quarter-to-quarter variability in overall U.S. transplants. On top of that, TransMedics has also been investing in its own proprietary logistics network by purchasing planes, and unscheduled third quarter maintenance needs increased costs unexpectedly.
On top of the "bad" quarter, a short-selling hedge fund called Scorpion Capital released a short report on TransMedics in early January, amplifying the stock's decline. The short report listed a number of allegations, including inflating prices to customers, "kickbacks" in exchange for usage, and growing competition.
The combination of a slowdown, the short seller attack, and the recent market jitters have all conspired in a big drop for TransMedics' stock. But has this opened up an opportunity?
Recent results seem to put concerns to rest
TransMedics' recent fourth quarter report was encouraging. While growth did continue to decelerate on a year-over-year basis and management guided to another deceleration in growth this year, the results did come in better than expected.
Q4 revenue grew 50% to $121.6 million, with earnings per share of $0.19 -- both handily ahead of analysts' estimates.
Admittedly, those estimates had come down after the prior quarter's disappointment, and revenue growth was still a deceleration from the 64% seen in the prior quarter and 83% for the full-year. It also may be troubling that the company guided for "just" 20%-25% growth in 2025.
Nevertheless, the solid print and likely conservative guidance should be encouraging, especially given how far the stock had fallen. In addition, TransMedics revealed it had hired an outside legal firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP, who in conjunction with outside experts conducted a thorough review of the short-seller attacks. The report concluded there was no evidence of misconduct. TransMedics also delivered a long and convincing response to Scorpion's petition to the FDA, along with specialist legal firm Covington & Burling LLP.
The bull case
Even though things have slowed a bit, TransMedics is still growing at a high rate, and appears to be taking market share. Management noted that across its three main organs of liver, heart, and lung, TransMedics' transplant market share grew from 13.8% to 20.9% in 2024. While overall growth is slowing, it could be that the law of large numbers is beginning to kick in, rather than competitive or product concerns.
In addition, there could be two big catalysts coming later this year, those being TransMedics' next-generation heart and lung OCS programs. Currently, the majority of TransMedics' revenue comes from liver transplants, at around 70% of 2024 revenue, followed by heart at 25% and lung at 5%.
Encouragingly, all segments grew strongly in 2024, suggesting increased adoption of OCS. However, liver actually grew the fastest, despite being the largest segment. That could perhaps raise questions over the degree of advantage OCS has in heart and lung patients over traditional solutions.
However, management noted that the two new heart and lung OCS systems were set to hit the market in the second half of this year, which could be a "game-changer" for these two segments. And management only forecast mild contributions for the new programs in its 2025 outlook, saying the new systems will account for 2% to 5% of the 20%-25% anticipated revenue growth.
In addition, TransMedics' costs were elevated in the second half of 2024. Part of this was due to scheduled maintenance on its planes, which TransMedics had only begun acquiring in late 2023. That dragged down overall margins. But on the recent fourth conference call, management said it was only going to buy one more plane this year, bringing its total to 22. The focus will now turn to utilization and efficiency in 2025, in contrast to the less-efficient "building" year of 2024. That should increase service margins in 2025.
Meanwhile, TransMedics' valuation has come down a lot, to 5.5 times sales and 45 times this year's earnings estimates.
That's not a demanding valuation if TransMedics can hit its longer-term guidance of 10,000 transplants in 2028, marking a 28% average growth rate over 2024's 3,715 transplants.
Risks abound, however
There are of course lingering risks to the TransMedics thesis right now. First, the short report and rebuttal are still pretty recent, so the refutations of the short accusations are not exactly a "settled" matter.
Second, while OCS has been shown to improve outcomes, it's also a more expensive solution. As with all pharmaceutical and biotech stocks, the high costs of healthcare in the U.S. could spur a pushback on prices. And high prices may also encourage competition. For instance, while TMDX was first to market with a well-functioning liver perfusion transplant device, a new privately held competitor OrganOx just raised $142 million in capital last month.
Finally, TransMedics' growth path implies a higher growth rate through 2028 than the company has guided for this year. Going back to the law of large numbers, it's hard for a company to grow faster as it gets bigger.
One key factor will be if the new heart and lung programs can improve the penetration rate for those organs, but that won't be known until at least the end of this year.
TransMedics is a story to watch
While there are a number of risks that need to be monitored, TransMedics looks like a name to watch in 2025. If the renewed heart and lung OCS programs can kick-start greater adoption for OCS in those organs, the company may be able to reaccelerate growth into 2026.
If that happens, then the Street-average price target of $102 could be in reach, and the Street-high price target of $125, amounting to nearly 100% gains, could be a possibility, too.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $309,972!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $40,573!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $512,338!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
Continue »
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 18, 2025
Billy Duberstein and/or clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TransMedics Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

1 Turnaround Growth Stock Down 60% That Could Double, According to Wall Street

It's been a rough several months for TransMedics Group (NASDAQ: TMDX) shareholders. The stock has been beaten down by about 62% from the peak it set last August.
The company's warm perfusion devices are the only ones approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to transport and store multiple solid organs. TransMedics is also the only solid organ transport device maker with a fleet of jets dedicated to transporting donated organs.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »
Unfortunately, TransMedics isn't the only company selling FDA-approved warm perfusion devices. Here's a look at what caused the company to forecast a sales slowdown to see if it could be a good stock to buy now.
Reasons for the rapid fall
At its peak last year, TransMedics stock traded for more than 150 times forward-looking earnings expectations. Stocks usually don't reach such a high multiple unless investors can expect rapid growth for years to come.
It's easy to see how the company set high expectations. Total revenue soared 159% to $241 million in 2023. Total sales soared another 83% in 2024, but the amazing growth might not last much longer.
Recently, TransMedics signaled an abrupt slowdown by announcing sales that grew by just 50% year over year during the fourth quarter of 2024. Management guided for further deceleration by predicting sales growth in a range between 20% and 25% for 2025.
At its peak, TransMedics Group was trading above 150 times forward-looking earnings expectations. Normally, sales guidance predicting growth of around 20% to 25% in a year would be a reason to cheer. However, the stock's nosebleed-inducing valuation implied growth at a much faster pace, so its price was hammered lower.
Reasons for the slowdown
Several years ago, there was a lot of low-hanging fruit in the solid organ storage and delivery space. Unfortunately for TransMedics Group investors, it's not the only company with next-generation organ storage devices approved by the FDA.
Paragonix manufactures ice-free cold storage devices for hearts, lungs, and kidneys, just to name a few. Its devices sync with digital services that clients or an internal team of organ transport specialists can use to coordinate logistics. This isn't the preferred method, but it is an available option that could limit TransMedics Group's pricing power.
In February, a privately held company in the U.K. called OrganOx raised $142 million to support the commercial launch of the OrganOx metra device. Like TransMedics' device, this is a normothermic machine perfusion system that is approved by the FDA to preserve livers donated after brain death (DBD) or after circulatory death (DCD).
TransMedics Group's organ care system (OCS) is the only one approved by the FDA to preserve multiple organs. Revenue from hearts and lungs is rising, but these organs aren't as much of a growth driver as livers. In 2024, liver transplants were responsible for 70% of total revenue.
Outside of the U.S., where OrganOx has a larger footprint, livers account for about 1% of TransMedics Group's sales. If OrganOx uses the capital it just raised to compete in the U.S. market as strongly as it competes abroad, TransMedics Group could suffer a significant revenue contraction.
Not a buy now
Despite the company's severe loss, the market still expects heaps of growth from TransMedics Group over the next few years. The stock has been trading for 44 times forward-looking earnings expectations.
If TransMedics raised prices on its OCS to compensate for its acquisition of Summit Aviation, OrganOx metra could look a lot more attractive to transplant centers than it did a couple of years ago. It's probably best to keep an eye on U.S. liver sales for at least a few more quarters to make sure that well-capitalized OrganOx can't compete in America's liver preservation space as well as it competes abroad.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $292,207!*
Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $45,326!*
Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $480,568!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
Continue »
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 10, 2025
Cory Renauer has positions in TransMedics Group. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TransMedics Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Down 62%. Should You Buy TransMedics Stock on the Dip?

Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Equity ETF (Symbol: JMEE), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $70.97 per unit.
With JMEE trading at a recent price near $56.85 per unit, that means that analysts see 24.83% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of JMEE's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are TransMedics Group Inc (Symbol: TMDX), Minerals Technologies, Inc. (Symbol: MTX), and Bristow Group Inc (Symbol: VTOL). Although TMDX has traded at a recent price of $69.11/share, the average analyst target is 47.59% higher at $102.00/share. Similarly, MTX has 47.30% upside from the recent share price of $66.53 if the average analyst target price of $98.00/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting VTOL to reach a target price of $48.50/share, which is 46.30% above the recent price of $33.15. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of TMDX, MTX, and VTOL:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
Name
Symbol
Recent Price
Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target
% Upside to Target
JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Equity ETF
JMEE
$56.85
$70.97
24.83%
TransMedics Group Inc
TMDX
$69.11
$102.00
47.59%
Minerals Technologies, Inc.
MTX
$66.53
$98.00
47.30%
Bristow Group Inc
VTOL
$33.15
$48.50
46.30%
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
10 ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets »
Also see:
CBI Insider Buying
SOUN market cap history
Institutional Holders of BSCW
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

	Change	Change by industry	Min.	Max.	Volume
Yesterday	-9.34%	1.88%	$129.66	$133.02	11.40M
Week	-4.37%	1.78%	$120.36	$133.49	297.03M
Month	-7.76%	3.97%	$120.30	$145.50	1.28B
3 Months	69.88%	2.67%	$62.23	$145.50	3.91B
6 Months	90.95%	9.37%	$55.00	$145.50	8.36B
Year	-19.91%	19.31%	$55.00	$177.37	18.24B
3 years	262.30%	72.19%	$30.00	$177.37	31.29B
5 years	533.44%	98.78%	$10.00	$177.37	34.70B
All time	406.01%	101.45%	$10.00	$177.37	22.00B

	TMDX	By industry
Yesterday	6.09%	0.98%
Week	2.92%	1.90%
Month	12.92%	11.44%
3 Months	27.08%	21.81%
6 Months	51.81%	29.79%
Year	69.75%	38.55%
3 years	123.95%	81.85%
5 years	170.07%	114.80%
All time	—	—

TransMedics Group, Inc.

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